The Black Swan, the turkey, and the bell curve

For our turkey, Every day is a good day

…UNTIL the highly improbable occurs...

An outlier? YesExtreme impact? Yes

Retrospective hindsight? Yes

Thanksgiving is the turkey’s Black Swan event!

Bell CurvesFrequency

Bell curves help to hide black swansThe Experiment

•Toss 10 identical coins (Heads/Tails)•Note results•Repeat 999 other times•Plot results on Bell Curve

Bell Curves

Bell curves hide randomness and the “unpredictable”

Frequency

What if were looking at the distribution of earthquakes?

Medium sizeNo seismic activity

Catastrophic

Black Swan territory

Bell Curves

What if were looking at the distribution of earthquakes?

Bell curves hide randomness and the “unpredictable”

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Frequency

Black Swan territory

So What?

We want to avoid being the turkey! No one agency can do this alone

The past doesn’t prepare us for the future Avoid the temptation to revert to “ABC Agency

always provides XYZ after a disaster” We can’t predict the future, nor Black Swan

events, but they will happen Pre-event coordination is critical!

By focusing on the “most likely” events, we’re blind to Black Swans

What can we do about it?

Turn Black Swans into white swans by Identifying areas of vulnerability Addressing areas of vulnerability

Continuously adapting to avoid becoming the turkey

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How do you make sure there are no gaps in the jar???

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Why Partner with Voluntary, Faith-Based and Community Based Organizations ?

Understanding local needs

Flexible

High impact / low cost

Avoid becoming the turkey!

Avoid Predictable Surprises