The Best Practices in Program Portfolio Evaluation - Student Demand

Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 1 Confidential

Program Portfolio Design

Choosing Which Programs to Start, Stop, Sustain, or Grow

February 2017

Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 2

Goals for Today’s Session

§  The Challenge

§  Framework for Evaluating Markets for Programs §  Data Sources, Uses and Limitations

§  Defining Your Market

§  Integrated Approach

Evaluating Demand for academic programs: best practices


Agenda

1.  The Challenge

2.  A Framework for Evaluating Markets for Programs

3.  Data Sources, Uses, and Limitations

4.  Market Definition

5.  Integrated Approach


Thousands of Potential Programs… Everyone has a favorite program…


Hundreds of Possibilities for Data Everyone has a favorite market metric and source of data.


Dozens of Stakeholders


Agenda

1.  The Challenge






Market Evaluation Framework We suggest screening all programs on four market factors.

Student Demand

Employment Opportunities

Strategic Fit Competitive

Intensity


Student Demand

Student Demand


Strategic Fit Competitive

Intensity


Agenda

1.  The Challenge






Sources

GRAY


Google Google: trends and keyword search volumes.


Google Trends

Source: www.google.com/trends.


Trends: Limited Detail

Medical Assisting Report by City in Pennsylvania


AdWords: search volume by location.

Google AdWords


AdWords: historical trends by keyword.

Student Demand Data: Google AdWords


Google AdWords: smoothed data.

Google Search

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Google Search Volumes Gray Program Keywords1 2015 2016

Source: Google, Gray Analysis. Data from Dec 2015 to Nov 2016. 1. Gray collects Google program search volumes for 20 keywords for 200 CIPs.


Student Inquiries

Student inquiries can create a current view of program size and trends.


Student Inquiries Sources: Marketing Agencies, Aggregators, Institutional Websites

Aggregator Agency


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Number of

Inquiries

Inquiries for Program A Denver: All Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

Sample of over 50,000,000 Inquiries: Local, Current, Precise

GrayReports: Inquiries

GRAY


US Map of Inquiries


Drill-Down on a State (FL)


Student Demand Data: Completions Completions: program size and long-term trends.


IPEDS Completions IPEDs: completions by location, school, program, and degree level.


Discussion: interpreting raw data.

National Student Demand Metrics: Auto Mechanic (CIP 47.0604)

100,802 202

8,690 9.4%

39,721 -664

National Student Demand for Program X

Your Interpretation?


Raw Numbers?

Meaning depends on comparisons to market or institutional data.

100,000 Program X 8,690 9.4% 39,721 -664


Color coding enables understanding (especially for non-quants)

Color and Clarity


Agenda

1.  The Challenge






Campus A

Campus C

Campus B

Campus D

Market Definition: Map Demand

Illustrative

Data


Market: focus on the core.

Market Definition: Distance Analysis

10%

18% 23%

14% 8%

4% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 1% 7%

28%

51%

66%

74% 78%

81% 83% 86% 89% 91% 93%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 >60

Miles

On-Campus Students by Distance from Campus

Percent of Total Cumulative Percent of

Total

Source: Illustrative Analysis of Enrollment by Distance from Campus.


Core Market Definition


Agenda

1.  The Challenge






Integrated, High-Capacity System

10%

18% 23%

14% 8%

4% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 1% 7%

28%

51%

66%

74% 78%

81% 83% 86%

89% 91% 93%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 >60

Miles

On-Campus Students by Distance from Campus

Percent of Total Cumulative Market Definition

Business Intelligence Database

Program Evaluation SystemSM

Hundreds of Programs

GRAY


Upcoming Webinars

Student Demand


Decision-Making Process

Competition and Degree Fit

March 2nd, 2017 2:00 PM EST

March 30th, 2017 2:00 PM EST

April 27th, 2017 Time: 2:00 PM EST

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The Best Practices in Program Portfolio Evaluation - Student Demand

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Transcript of The Best Practices in Program Portfolio Evaluation - Student Demand