portal → realicra/realicra.htm →basiclawsofhumanstupidity.htm

THE BASIC LAWS OF HUMAN STUPIDITYby Carlo M. Cipolla

illustrat ions by James Donnelly

Table of contents

1. The first basic law of humanstupidity2. The second basic law3. The third (and golden) basic law4. Frequency distribut ion5. The power of stupidity6. The fourth basic law7. The fifth basic law

The first basic law of human stupidity

The first basic law of human stupidity asserts without ambiguity that :

Always and inevitably everyone underest imates the number of stupidindividuals in circulat ion.

At first , the statement sounds trivial, vague and horribly ungenerous. Closer scrut inywill however reveal its realist ic veracity. No matter how high are one's est imates ofhuman stupidity, one is repeatedly and recurrent ly start led by the fact that :

a) people whom one had oncejudged rat ional and intelligentturn out to be unashamedlystupid.

The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity 9/27/12

http://www.searchlores.org/realicra/basiclawsofhumanstupidity.htm 1 / 11

b) day after day, withunceasing monotony, one isharassed in one's act ivit ies bystupid individuals who appearsuddenly and unexpectedly inthe most inconvenient placesand at the most improbablemoments.

The First Basic Law prevents me from attribut ing a specific numerical value to thefract ion of stupid people within the total populat ion: any numerical est imate wouldturn out to be an underest imate. Thus in the following pages I will denote the fract ionof stupid people within a populat ion by the symbol σ.

The second basic law

Cultural t rends now fashionable in the West favour an egalitarian approach to life.People like to think of human beings as the output of a perfect ly engineered massproduct ion machine. Genet icists and sociologists especially go out of their way toprove, with an impressive apparatus of scient ific data and formulat ions that all menare naturally equal and if some are more equal than others, this is at t ributable tonurture and not to nature. I take an except ion to this general view. It is my firmconvict ion, supported by years of observat ion and experimentat ion, that men are notequal, that some are stupid andothers are not, and that thedifference is determined bynature and not by cultural forcesor factors. One is stupid in thesame way one is red-haired; onebelongs to the stupid set as onebelongs to a blood group. Astupid man is born a stupid manby an act of Providence.Although convinced that fract ionof human beings are stupid andthat they are so because ofgenet ic t raits, I am not a react ionary t rying to reintroduce surrept it iously class or racediscriminat ion. I firmly believe that stupidity is an indiscriminate privilege of all humangroups and is uniformly distributed according to a constant proport ion. This fact isscient ifically expressed by the Second Basic Law which states that

The probability that a certain person be stupid is independent of any othercharacterist ic of that person.

The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity 9/27/12

http://www.searchlores.org/realicra/basiclawsofhumanstupidity.htm 2 / 11

In this regard, Nature seems indeed to have outdone herself. It is well known thatNature manages, rather mysteriously, to keep constant the relat ive frequency ofcertain natural phenomena. For instance, whether men proliferate at the NorthernPole or at the Equator, whether the matching couples are developed orunderdeveloped, whether they are black, red, white or yellow the female to male rat ioamong the newly born is a constant, with a very slight prevalence of males. We do notknow how Nature achieves this remarkable result but we know that in order toachieve it Nature must operate with large numbers. The most remarkable fact aboutthe frequency of stupidity is that Nature succeeds in making this frequency equal tothe probability quite independent ly from the size of the group.

Thus one finds the same percentage of stupid people whether one is consideringvery large groups or one is dealing with very small ones. No other set of observablephenomena offers such striking proof of the powers of Nature.

The evidence that educat ion has nothing to do with the probability was provided byexperiments carried on in a large number of universit ies all over the world. One maydist inguish the composite populat ion which const itutes a university in five majorgroups, namely the blue-collar workers, the white-collar employees, the students, theadministrators and the professors.

Whenever I analyzed the blue-collar workers I found that the fract ion σ of them werestupid. As σ's value was higher than I expected (First Law), paying my tribute tofashion I thought at first that segregat ion, poverty, lack of educat ion were to beblamed. But moving up the social ladder I found that the same rat io was prevalentamong the white-collar employees and among the students. More impressive st illwere the results among the professors. Whether I considered a large university or asmall college, a famous inst itut ion or an obscure one, I found that the same fract ion σof the professors are stupid. So bewildered was I by the results, that I made a specialpoint to extend my research to a specially selected group, to a real elite, the Nobellaureates. The result confirmed Nature's supreme powers: σ fract ion of the Nobellaureates are stupid.

This idea was hard to accept and digest but too many experimental results proved itsfundamental veracity. The Second Basic Law is an iron law, and it does not admitexcept ions. The Women's Liberat ion Movement will support the Second Basic Law asit shows that stupid individuals are proport ionately as numerous among men asamong women. The underdeveloped of the Third World will probably take solace atthe Second Basic Law as they can find in it the proof that after all the developed arenot so developed. Whether the Second Basic Law is liked or not, however, itsimplicat ions are frightening: the Law implies that whether you move in dist inguishedcircles or you take refuge among the head-hunters of Polynesia, whether you lockyourself into a monastery or decide to spend the rest of your life in the company ofbeaut iful and lascivious women, you always have to face the same percentage ofstupid people - which percentage (in accordance with the First Law) will alwayssurpass your expectat ions.

The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity 9/27/12

http://www.searchlores.org/realicra/basiclawsofhumanstupidity.htm 3 / 11

The third (and golden) basic law

The Third Basic Law assumes, although it does not state it explicit ly, that humanbeings fall into four basic categories: the helpless, the intelligent, the bandit and thestupid. It will be easily recognized by the perspicacious reader that these fourcategories correspond to the four areas I, H, S, B, of the basic graph (see below).

If Tom takes an act ion and suffers a loss while producing a gain to Dick, Tom's markwill fall in field H: Tom acted helplessly. If Tom takes an act ion by which he makes again while yielding a gain also to Dick, Tom's mark will fall in area I: Tom actedintelligent ly. If Tom takes an act ion by which he makes a gain causing Dick a loss,Tom's mark will fall in area B: Tom acted as a bandit . Stupidity is related to area S andto all posit ions on axis Y below point O. As the Third Basic Law explicit ly clarifies:

A stupid person is a person who causes losses to another person or to agroup of persons while himself deriving no gain and even possibly incurring

losses.

When confronted for the first t ime with the Third Basic Law, rat ional people

The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity 9/27/12

http://www.searchlores.org/realicra/basiclawsofhumanstupidity.htm 4 / 11

inst inct ively react with feelings of skept icism and incredulity. The fact is thatreasonable people have difficulty in conceiving and understanding unreasonablebehaviour. But let us abandon the lofty plane of theory and let us look pragmaticallyat our daily life. We all recollect occasions in which a fellow took an act ion whichresulted in his gain and our loss: we had to deal with a bandit . We also recollect casesin which a fellow took an act ion which resulted in his loss and our gain: we had to dealwith a helpless person. We can recollect cases in which a fellow took an act ion bywhich both part ies gained: he was intelligent. Such cases do indeed occur. But uponthoughtful reflect ion you must admit that these are not the events which punctuatemost frequent ly our daily life. Our daily life is most ly, made of cases in which we losemoney and/or t ime and/or energy and/or appet ite, cheerfulness and good healthbecause of the improbable act ion of some preposterous creature who has nothing togain and indeed gains nothing from causing us embarrassment, difficult ies or harm.Nobody knows, understands or can possibly explain why that preposterous creaturedoes what he does. In fact there is no explanat ion - or better there is only oneexplanat ion: the person in quest ion is stupid.

Frequency distribution

Most people do not act consistent ly. Under certain circumstances a given person actsintelligent ly and under different circumstances the same person will act helplessly.The only important except ion to the rule is represented by the stupid people whonormally show a strong proclivity toward perfect consistency in all fields of humanendeavours.

From all that proceeds, it does not follow, that we can chart on the basic graph onlystupid individuals. We can calculate for each person his weighted average posit ion inthe plane of figure 1 quite independent ly from his degree of inconsistency. A helplessperson may occasionally behave intelligent ly and on occasion he may perform abandit 's act ion. But since the person in quest ion is fundamentally helpless most of hisact ion will have the characterist ics of helplessness. Thus the overall weightedaverage posit ion of all the act ions of such a person will place him in the H quadrant ofthe basic graph.

The fact that it is possible to place on the graph individuals instead of their act ionsallows some digression about the frequency of the bandit and stupid types.

The perfect bandit is one who, with his act ions, causes to other individuals lossesequal to his gains. The crudest type of bandit ry is theft . A person who robs you of 100pounds without causing you an extra loss or harm is a perfect bandit : you lose 100pounds, he gains 100 pounds. In the basic graph the perfect bandits would appear ona 45-degree diagonal line that divides the area B into two perfect ly symmetrical sub-areas (line OM of figure 2).

The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity 9/27/12

http://www.searchlores.org/realicra/basiclawsofhumanstupidity.htm 5 / 11

However the "perfect" bandits are relat ively few. The line OM divides the area B intotwo sub-areas, B1, and B2, and by far the largest majority of the bandits falls

somewhere in one of these two sub-areas.

The bandits who fall in area B1 are those individuals whose act ions yield to them

profits which are larger than the losses they cause to other people. All bandits whoare ent it led to a posit ion in area B1 are bandits with overtones of intelligence and as

they get closer to the right side of the X axis they share more and more thecharacterist ics of the intelligent person.

Unfortunately the individuals ent it led to a posit ion in the B1 area are not very

numerous. Most bandits actually fall in area B2. The individuals who fall in this area are

those whose act ions yield to them gains inferior to the losses inflicted to otherpeople. If someone kills you in order to rob you of fifty pounds or if he murders you inorder to spend a weekend with your wife at Monte Carlo, we can be sure that he isnot a perfect bandit . Even by using his values to measure his gains (but st ill usingyour values to measure your losses) he falls in the B2 area very close to the border of

sheer stupidity. Generals who cause vast destruct ion and innumerable casualt ies inreturn for a promot ion or a medal fall in the same area.

The frequency distribut ion of the stupid people is totally different from that of thebandit . While bandits are most ly scattered over an area stupid people are heavilyconcentrated along one line, specifically on the Y axis below point O. The reason forthis is that by far the majority of stupid people are basically and unwaveringly stupid -in other words they perseveringly insist in causing harm and losses to other people

The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity 9/27/12

http://www.searchlores.org/realicra/basiclawsofhumanstupidity.htm 6 / 11

without deriving any gain, whether posit ive or negat ive.

There are however people who by their improbable act ions not only cause damagesto other people but in addit ion hurt themselves. They are a sort of super-stupid who,in our system of account ing, will appear somewhere in the area S to the left of the Yaxis.

The power of stupidity

It is not difficult to understand how social, polit ical and inst itut ional power enhancesthe damaging potent ial of a stupid person. But one st ill has to explain and understandwhat essent ially it is that makes a stupid person dangerous to other people - in otherwords what const itutes the power of stupidity.

Essent ially stupid people are dangerous and damaging because reasonable peoplefind it difficult to imagine and understand unreasonable behaviour. An intelligentperson may understand the logic of a bandit . The bandit 's act ions follow a pattern ofrat ionality: nasty rat ionality, if you like, but st ill rat ionality. The bandit wants a plus onhis account. Since he is not intelligent enough to devise ways of obtaining the plus aswell as providing you with a plus, he will produce his plus by causing a minus to appearon your account. All this is bad, but it is rat ional and if you are rat ional you can predictit . You can foresee a bandit 's act ions, his nasty manoeuvres and ugly aspirat ions andoften can build up your defenses.

With a stupid person all this is absolutely impossible as explained by the Third BasicLaw. A stupid creature will harass you for no reason, for no advantage, without anyplan or scheme and at the most improbable t imes and places. You have no rat ionalway of telling if and when and how and why the stupid creature at tacks. Whenconfronted with a stupid individual you are completely at his mercy. Because thestupid person's act ions do not conform to the rules of rat ionality, it follows that:

a) one is generally caught by surprise by the at tack; b) even when one becomesaware of the at tack, one cannot organize a rat ional defense, because the at tackitself lacks any rat ional structure.

The fact that the act ivity and movements of a stupid creature are absolutely errat icand irrat ional not only makes defense problemat ic but it also makes any counter-at tack extremely difficult - like t rying to shoot at an object which is capable of themost improbable and unimaginable movements. This is what both Dickens andSchiller had in mind when the former stated that "with stupidity and sound digest ionman may front much" and the lat ter wrote that "against stupidity the very Gods fightin vain."

The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity 9/27/12

http://www.searchlores.org/realicra/basiclawsofhumanstupidity.htm 7 / 11

The fourth basic law

That helpless people, namely those who in our account ing system fall into the H area,do not normally recognize how dangerous stupid people are, is not at all surprising.Their failure is just another expression of their helplessness. The truly amazing fact ,however, is that also intelligent people and bandits often fail to recognize the powerto damage inherent in stupidity. It is extremely difficult to explain why this shouldhappen and one can only remark that when confronted with stupid individuals oftenintelligent men as well as bandits make the mistake of indulging in feelings of self-complacency and contemptuousness instead of immediately secret ing adequatequant it ies of adrenaline and building up defenses.

One is tempted to believe that a stupid man will only do harm to himself but this isconfusing stupidity with helplessness. On occasion one is tempted to associateoneself with a stupid individual in order to use him for one's own schemes. Such amanoeuvre cannot but have disastrous effects because a) it is based on a completemisunderstanding of the essent ial nature of stupidity and b) it gives the stupid personadded scope for the exercise of his gifts. One may hope to outmanoeuvre the stupidand, up to a point , one may actually do so. But because of the errat ic behaviour of thestupid, one cannot foresee all the stupid's act ions and react ions and before long onewill be pulverized by the unpredictable moves of the stupid partner.

This is clearly summarized in the Fourth Basic Law which states that:

Non-stupid people always underest imate the damaging power of stupidindividuals. In part icular non-stupid people constantly forget that at allt imes and places and under any circumstances to deal and/or associate

with stupid people always turns out to be a cost ly mistake.

Through centuries and millennia, in public as in private life, count less individuals havefailed to take account of the Fourth Basic Law and the failure has caused mankindincalculable losses.

The fifth basic law

Instead of considering the welfare of the individual let us consider the welfare of thesociety, regarded in this context as the algebraic sum of the individual condit ions. Afull understanding of the Fifth Basic Law is essent ial to the analysis. It may beparenthet ically added here that of the Five Basic Laws, the Fifth is certainly the bestknown and its corollary is quoted very frequent ly. The Fifth Basic Law states that:

The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity 9/27/12

http://www.searchlores.org/realicra/basiclawsofhumanstupidity.htm 8 / 11

A stupid person is the most dangerous type of person.

The corollary of the Law is that :

A stupid person is more dangerous than a bandit .

The result of the act ion of a perfect bandit (the person who falls on line OM of figure2) is purely and simply a t ransfer of wealth and/or welfare. After the act ion of a perfectbandit , the bandit has a plus on his account which plus is exact ly equivalent to theminus he has caused to another person. The society as a whole is neither better norworse off. If all members of a society were perfect bandits the society would remainstagnant but there would be no major disaster. The whole business would amount tomassive transfers of wealth and welfare in favour of those who would take act ion. Ifall members of the society would take act ion in regular turns, not only the society as awhole but also individuals would find themselves in a perfect ly steady state of nochange.

When stupid people are at work, the story is totally different. Stupid people causelosses to other people with no counterpart of gains on their own account. Thus thesociety as a whole is impoverished. The system of account ing which finds expressionin the basic graphs shows that while all act ions of individuals falling to the right of theline POM (see fig. 3) add to the welfare of a society; although in different degrees, theact ions of all individuals falling to the left of the same line POM cause a deteriorat ion.

The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity 9/27/12

http://www.searchlores.org/realicra/basiclawsofhumanstupidity.htm 9 / 11

In other words the helpless with overtones of intelligence (area H1), the bandits with

overtones of intelligence (area B1) and above all the intelligent (area I) all contribute,

though in different degrees, to accrue to the welfare of a society. On the other handthe bandits with overtones of stupidity (area B2) and the helpless with overtones of

stupidity (area H2) manage to add losses to those caused by stupid people thus

enhancing the nefarious destruct ive power of the lat ter group.

All this suggests some reflect ion on the performance of societ ies. According to theSecond Basic Law, the fract ion of stupid people is a constant σ which is not affectedby t ime, space, race, class or any other sociocultural or historical variable. It would be aprofound mistake to believe the number of stupid people in a declining society isgreater than in a developing society. Both such societ ies are plagued by the samepercentage of stupid people. The difference between the two societ ies is that in thesociety which performs poorly:

a) the stupid members of the society are allowed by the other members to becomemore act ive and take more act ions; b) there is a change in the composit ion of thenon-stupid sect ion with a relat ive decline of populat ions of areas I, H1 and B1 and a

proport ionate increase of populat ions H2 and B2.

This theoret ical presumption is abundant ly confirmed by an exhaust ive analysis ofhistorical cases. In fact the historical analysis allows us to reformulate the theoret icalconclusions in a more factual way and with more realist ic detail.

Whether one considers classical, or medieval, or modern or contemporary t imes one isimpressed by the fact that any country moving uphill has its unavoidable σ fract ion ofstupid people. However the country moving uphill also has an unusually high fract ionof intelligent people who manage to keep the σ fract ion at bay and at the same t imeproduce enough gains for themselves and the other members of the community tomake progress a certainty.

In a country which is moving downhill, the fract ion of stupid people is st ill equal to σ;however in the remaining populat ion one not ices among those in power an alarmingproliferat ion of the bandits with overtones of stupidity (sub-area B2 of quadrant B in

figure 3) and among those not in power an equally alarming growth in the number ofhelpless individuals (area H in basic graph, fig.1). Such change in the composit ion ofthe non-stupid populat ion inevitably strengthens the destruct ive power of the σfract ion and makes decline a certainty. And the country goes to Hell.

There is genius at work in this thesis. It came round about by way of reader Sam Keen, who sent tothe UK a thin gray monograph printed anonimously in mid-1986 in Bologna, Italy. The trail eventuallyled to Carlo M. Cipolla, the author, who was Professor of Economics at UC Berkeley but, alas died in2000 and left behind a bunch of (half-american) offsprings... who promptly tried to scrap money out ofeverything he had written, even if -as in the case of this small text- clearly earmarked and STATED bythe Author in its 1986 version as intended for the public domain (and yes, stated again in 1992,despite having re-published this text in 1988, slightly modified, in his "Allegro ma non troppo"copyrighted collection).

The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity 9/27/12

http://www.searchlores.org/realicra/basiclawsofhumanstupidity.htm 10 / 11

This copy comes from Whole Earth Review (Spring 1987 pp 2 - 7) and is anyway easy to find all overthe web and/or on any webarchive facility à la "wayback machine".

There isn't of course, nor cannot be, any valid patent or bogus "copyright" on this work that ProfessorCipolla personally WANTED to have in the public domain and incidentally BECAUSE OF ITS VERYOPEN SPREADING is the only one that has made -and still makes- him famous all over the web.

We firmly believe that this belongs into any reality cracker's quiver, and that the best onor to theAuthor and the best chance that anyone will "buy" his other texts (frankly also equally easy to find inmany "grey" areas of Internet, but waay less interesting) is to allow this nice little essay to be spreadaround as originally clearly intended by Professor Cipolla himself.

@&@&@&@&@

The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity 9/27/12

http://www.searchlores.org/realicra/basiclawsofhumanstupidity.htm 11 / 11