Necessary cognitive fortification againstpropaganda, pseudoscience, and generalfalsehood.

BY MARIA POPOVA

Carl Sagan was many

things — a cosmic sage,

voracious reader,

hopeless romantic, and

brilliant philosopher.

But above all, he

endures as our era’s

greatest patron saint of reason and common

sense, a master of the vital balance between

skepticism and openness. In The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in theDark (public library) — the same

The Baloney Detection Kit: CarlSagan’s Rules for Bullshit-Bustingand Critical Thinking

Necessary cognitive fortification againstpropaganda, pseudoscience, and generalfalsehood.

BY MARIA POPOVA

Carl Sagan was many

things — a cosmic sage,

voracious reader,

hopeless romantic, and

brilliant philosopher.

But above all, he

endures as our era’s

greatest patron saint of reason and common

sense, a master of the vital balance between

skepticism and openness. In The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in theDark (public library) — the same

The Baloney Detection Kit: CarlSagan’s Rules for Bullshit-Bustingand Critical Thinking

☰

The Baloney Detection Kit Carl Sagan s̓ Rul…Saved to Dropbox • Jan 9, 2017, 11F28 AM

Dark (public library) — the same

indispensable volume that gave us Sagan’s

timeless meditation on science and

spirituality, published mere months before

his death in 1996 — Sagan shares his secret

to upholding the rites of reason, even in the

face of society’s most shameless untruths

and outrageous propaganda.

In a chapter titled “The Fine Art ofBaloney Detection,” Sagan reflects on the

many types of deception to which we’re

susceptible — from psychics to religious

zealotry to paid product endorsements by

scientists, which he held in especially low

regard, noting that they “betray contempt

for the intelligence of their customers” and

“introduce an insidious corruption of

popular attitudes about scientific

objectivity.” (Cue in PBS’s Joe Hanson on how

to read science news.) But rather than

preaching from the ivory tower of self-

righteousness, Sagan approaches the subject

from the most vulnerable of places — having

Dark (public library) — the same

indispensable volume that gave us Sagan’s

timeless meditation on science and

spirituality, published mere months before

his death in 1996 — Sagan shares his secret

to upholding the rites of reason, even in the

face of society’s most shameless untruths

and outrageous propaganda.

In a chapter titled “The Fine Art ofBaloney Detection,” Sagan reflects on the

many types of deception to which we’re

susceptible — from psychics to religious

zealotry to paid product endorsements by

scientists, which he held in especially low

regard, noting that they “betray contempt

for the intelligence of their customers” and

“introduce an insidious corruption of

popular attitudes about scientific

objectivity.” (Cue in PBS’s Joe Hanson on how

to read science news.) But rather than

preaching from the ivory tower of self-

righteousness, Sagan approaches the subject

from the most vulnerable of places — having

Dark (public library) — the same

indispensable volume that gave us Sagan’s

timeless meditation on science and

spirituality, published mere months before

his death in 1996 — Sagan shares his secret

to upholding the rites of reason, even in the

face of society’s most shameless untruths

and outrageous propaganda.

In a chapter titled “The Fine Art ofBaloney Detection,” Sagan reflects on the

many types of deception to which we’re

susceptible — from psychics to religious

zealotry to paid product endorsements by

scientists, which he held in especially low

regard, noting that they “betray contempt

for the intelligence of their customers” and

“introduce an insidious corruption of

popular attitudes about scientific

objectivity.” (Cue in PBS’s Joe Hanson on how

to read science news.) But rather than

preaching from the ivory tower of self-

righteousness, Sagan approaches the subject

from the most vulnerable of places — having

from the most vulnerable of places — having

just lost both of his parents, he reflects on

the all too human allure of promises of

supernatural reunions in the afterlife,

reminding us that falling for such fictions

doesn’t make us stupid or bad people, but

simply means that we need to equip

ourselves with the right tools against them.

Through their training, scientists are

equipped with what Sagan calls a “baloney

detection kit” — a set of cognitive tools and

techniques that fortify the mind against

penetration by falsehoods:

from the most vulnerable of places — having

just lost both of his parents, he reflects on

the all too human allure of promises of

supernatural reunions in the afterlife,

reminding us that falling for such fictions

doesn’t make us stupid or bad people, but

simply means that we need to equip

ourselves with the right tools against them.

Through their training, scientists are

equipped with what Sagan calls a “baloney

detection kit” — a set of cognitive tools and

techniques that fortify the mind against

penetration by falsehoods:

The kit is brought out as a matterof course whenever new ideas areoffered for consideration. If thenew idea survives examination bythe tools in our kit, we grant itwarm, although tentative,acceptance. If you’re so inclined, ifyou don’t want to buy baloney evenwhen it’s reassuring to do so, thereare precautions that can be taken;there’s a tried-and-true, consumer-tested method.

But the kit, Sagan argues, isn’t merely a tool

of science — rather, it contains invaluable

tools of healthy skepticism that apply just as

elegantly, and just as necessarily, to everyday

life. By adopting the kit, we can all shield

ourselves against clueless guile and

deliberate manipulation. Sagan shares nine

of these tools:

1. Wherever possible theremust be independentconfirmation of the “facts.”

The kit is brought out as a matterof course whenever new ideas areoffered for consideration. If thenew idea survives examination bythe tools in our kit, we grant itwarm, although tentative,acceptance. If you’re so inclined, ifyou don’t want to buy baloney evenwhen it’s reassuring to do so, thereare precautions that can be taken;there’s a tried-and-true, consumer-tested method.

But the kit, Sagan argues, isn’t merely a tool

of science — rather, it contains invaluable

tools of healthy skepticism that apply just as

elegantly, and just as necessarily, to everyday

life. By adopting the kit, we can all shield

ourselves against clueless guile and

deliberate manipulation. Sagan shares nine

of these tools:

1. Wherever possible theremust be independentconfirmation of the “facts.”

2. Encourage substantivedebate on the evidence byknowledgeable proponents ofall points of view.

3. Arguments from authoritycarry little weight —“authorities” have mademistakes in the past. They willdo so again in the future.Perhaps a better way to say itis that in science there are noauthorities; at most, there areexperts.

4. Spin more than onehypothesis. If there’ssomething to be explained,think of all the different waysin which it could beexplained. Then think of testsby which you might

2. Encourage substantivedebate on the evidence byknowledgeable proponents ofall points of view.

3. Arguments from authoritycarry little weight —“authorities” have mademistakes in the past. They willdo so again in the future.Perhaps a better way to say itis that in science there are noauthorities; at most, there areexperts.

4. Spin more than onehypothesis. If there’ssomething to be explained,think of all the different waysin which it could beexplained. Then think of testsby which you might

systematically disprove eachof the alternatives. Whatsurvives, the hypothesis thatresists disproof in thisDarwinian selection among“multiple workinghypotheses,” has a muchbetter chance of being theright answer than if you hadsimply run with the first ideathat caught your fancy.

5. Try not to get overlyattached to a hypothesis justbecause it’s yours. It’s only away station in the pursuit ofknowledge. Ask yourself whyyou like the idea. Compare itfairly with the alternatives.See if you can find reasonsfor rejecting it. If you don’t,others will.

systematically disprove eachof the alternatives. Whatsurvives, the hypothesis thatresists disproof in thisDarwinian selection among“multiple workinghypotheses,” has a muchbetter chance of being theright answer than if you hadsimply run with the first ideathat caught your fancy.

5. Try not to get overlyattached to a hypothesis justbecause it’s yours. It’s only away station in the pursuit ofknowledge. Ask yourself whyyou like the idea. Compare itfairly with the alternatives.See if you can find reasonsfor rejecting it. If you don’t,others will.

systematically disprove eachof the alternatives. Whatsurvives, the hypothesis thatresists disproof in thisDarwinian selection among“multiple workinghypotheses,” has a muchbetter chance of being theright answer than if you hadsimply run with the first ideathat caught your fancy.

5. Try not to get overlyattached to a hypothesis justbecause it’s yours. It’s only away station in the pursuit ofknowledge. Ask yourself whyyou like the idea. Compare itfairly with the alternatives.See if you can find reasonsfor rejecting it. If you don’t,others will.

6. Quantify. If whatever it isyou’re explaining has somemeasure, some numericalquantity attached to it, you’llbe much better able todiscriminate amongcompeting hypotheses. Whatis vague and qualitative isopen to many explanations.Of course there are truths tobe sought in the manyqualitative issues we areobliged to confront, butfinding them is morechallenging.

7. If there’s a chain ofargument, every link in thechain must work (includingthe premise) — not just mostof them.

8. Occam’s Razor. This

6. Quantify. If whatever it isyou’re explaining has somemeasure, some numericalquantity attached to it, you’llbe much better able todiscriminate amongcompeting hypotheses. Whatis vague and qualitative isopen to many explanations.Of course there are truths tobe sought in the manyqualitative issues we areobliged to confront, butfinding them is morechallenging.

7. If there’s a chain ofargument, every link in thechain must work (includingthe premise) — not just mostof them.

8. Occam’s Razor. This

convenient rule-of-thumburges us when faced with twohypotheses that explain thedata equally well to choosethe simpler.

9. Always ask whether thehypothesis can be, at least inprinciple, falsified.Propositions that areuntestable, unfalsifiable arenot worth much. Consider thegrand idea that our Universeand everything in it is just anelementary particle — anelectron, say — in a muchbigger Cosmos. But if we cannever acquire informationfrom outside our Universe, isnot the idea incapable ofdisproof? You must be able tocheck assertions out.

convenient rule-of-thumburges us when faced with twohypotheses that explain thedata equally well to choosethe simpler.

9. Always ask whether thehypothesis can be, at least inprinciple, falsified.Propositions that areuntestable, unfalsifiable arenot worth much. Consider thegrand idea that our Universeand everything in it is just anelementary particle — anelectron, say — in a muchbigger Cosmos. But if we cannever acquire informationfrom outside our Universe, isnot the idea incapable ofdisproof? You must be able tocheck assertions out.

Inveterate skeptics must begiven the chance to followyour reasoning, to duplicateyour experiments and see ifthey get the same result.

Just as important as learning these helpful

tools, however, is unlearning and avoiding

the most common pitfalls of common sense.

Reminding us of where society is most

vulnerable to those, Sagan writes:

In addition to teaching us what todo when evaluating a claim toknowledge, any good baloneydetection kit must also teach us

Inveterate skeptics must begiven the chance to followyour reasoning, to duplicateyour experiments and see ifthey get the same result.

Just as important as learning these helpful

tools, however, is unlearning and avoiding

the most common pitfalls of common sense.

Reminding us of where society is most

vulnerable to those, Sagan writes:

In addition to teaching us what todo when evaluating a claim toknowledge, any good baloneydetection kit must also teach us

Inveterate skeptics must begiven the chance to followyour reasoning, to duplicateyour experiments and see ifthey get the same result.

Just as important as learning these helpful

tools, however, is unlearning and avoiding

the most common pitfalls of common sense.

Reminding us of where society is most

vulnerable to those, Sagan writes:

In addition to teaching us what todo when evaluating a claim toknowledge, any good baloneydetection kit must also teach us

what not to do. It helps usrecognize the most common andperilous fallacies of logic andrhetoric. Many good examples canbe found in religion and politics,because their practitioners are sooften obliged to justify twocontradictory propositions.

He admonishes against the twenty most

common and perilous ones — many rooted

in our chronic discomfort with ambiguity —

with examples of each in action:

1. ad hominemad hominem — Latin for“to the man,” attacking thearguer and not the argument(e.g., The Reverend Dr. Smith isa known Biblicalfundamentalist, so herobjections to evolution neednot be taken seriously)

2. argument from authorityargument from authority

what not to do. It helps usrecognize the most common andperilous fallacies of logic andrhetoric. Many good examples canbe found in religion and politics,because their practitioners are sooften obliged to justify twocontradictory propositions.

He admonishes against the twenty most

common and perilous ones — many rooted

in our chronic discomfort with ambiguity —

with examples of each in action:

1. ad hominemad hominem — Latin for“to the man,” attacking thearguer and not the argument(e.g., The Reverend Dr. Smith isa known Biblicalfundamentalist, so herobjections to evolution neednot be taken seriously)

2. argument from authorityargument from authority

2. argument from authorityargument from authority(e.g., President Richard Nixonshould be re-elected becausehe has a secret plan to endthe war in Southeast Asia —but because it was secret,there was no way for theelectorate to evaluate it on itsmerits; the argumentamounted to trusting himbecause he was President: amistake, as it turned out)

3. argument from adverseargument from adverseconsequencesconsequences (e.g., A Godmeting out punishment andreward must exist, because ifHe didn’t, society would bemuch more lawless anddangerous — perhaps evenungovernable. Or: Thedefendant in a widelypublicized murder trial must

2. argument from authorityargument from authority(e.g., President Richard Nixonshould be re-elected becausehe has a secret plan to endthe war in Southeast Asia —but because it was secret,there was no way for theelectorate to evaluate it on itsmerits; the argumentamounted to trusting himbecause he was President: amistake, as it turned out)

3. argument from adverseargument from adverseconsequencesconsequences (e.g., A Godmeting out punishment andreward must exist, because ifHe didn’t, society would bemuch more lawless anddangerous — perhaps evenungovernable. Or: Thedefendant in a widelypublicized murder trial must

be found guilty; otherwise, itwill be an encouragement forother men to murder theirwives)

4. appeal to ignoranceappeal to ignorance —the claim that whatever hasnot been proved false mustbe true, and vice versa (e.g.,There is no compellingevidence that UFOs are notvisiting the Earth; thereforeUFOs exist — and there isintelligent life elsewhere inthe Universe. Or: There maybe seventy kazillion otherworlds, but not one is knownto have the moraladvancement of the Earth, sowe’re still central to theUniverse.) This impatiencewith ambiguity can be

be found guilty; otherwise, itwill be an encouragement forother men to murder theirwives)

4. appeal to ignoranceappeal to ignorance —the claim that whatever hasnot been proved false mustbe true, and vice versa (e.g.,There is no compellingevidence that UFOs are notvisiting the Earth; thereforeUFOs exist — and there isintelligent life elsewhere inthe Universe. Or: There maybe seventy kazillion otherworlds, but not one is knownto have the moraladvancement of the Earth, sowe’re still central to theUniverse.) This impatiencewith ambiguity can be

criticized in the phrase:absence of evidence is notevidence of absence.

5. special pleadingspecial pleading, often torescue a proposition in deeprhetorical trouble (e.g., Howcan a merciful God condemnfuture generations to tormentbecause, against orders, onewoman induced one man toeat an apple? Special plead:you don’t understand thesubtle Doctrine of Free Will.Or: How can there be anequally godlike Father, Son,and Holy Ghost in the samePerson? Special plead: Youdon’t understand the DivineMystery of the Trinity. Or: Howcould God permit thefollowers of Judaism,

criticized in the phrase:absence of evidence is notevidence of absence.

5. special pleadingspecial pleading, often torescue a proposition in deeprhetorical trouble (e.g., Howcan a merciful God condemnfuture generations to tormentbecause, against orders, onewoman induced one man toeat an apple? Special plead:you don’t understand thesubtle Doctrine of Free Will.Or: How can there be anequally godlike Father, Son,and Holy Ghost in the samePerson? Special plead: Youdon’t understand the DivineMystery of the Trinity. Or: Howcould God permit thefollowers of Judaism,

criticized in the phrase:absence of evidence is notevidence of absence.

5. special pleadingspecial pleading, often torescue a proposition in deeprhetorical trouble (e.g., Howcan a merciful God condemnfuture generations to tormentbecause, against orders, onewoman induced one man toeat an apple? Special plead:you don’t understand thesubtle Doctrine of Free Will.Or: How can there be anequally godlike Father, Son,and Holy Ghost in the samePerson? Special plead: Youdon’t understand the DivineMystery of the Trinity. Or: Howcould God permit thefollowers of Judaism,

Christianity, and Islam — eachin their own way enjoined toheroic measures of lovingkindness and compassion —to have perpetrated so muchcruelty for so long? Specialplead: You don’t understandFree Will again. And anyway,God moves in mysteriousways.)

6. begging the questionbegging the question,also called assuming theassuming theansweranswer (e.g., We mustinstitute the death penalty todiscourage violent crime. Butdoes the violent crime rate infact fall when the deathpenalty is imposed? Or: Thestock market fell yesterdaybecause of a technicaladjustment and profit-taking

Christianity, and Islam — eachin their own way enjoined toheroic measures of lovingkindness and compassion —to have perpetrated so muchcruelty for so long? Specialplead: You don’t understandFree Will again. And anyway,God moves in mysteriousways.)

6. begging the questionbegging the question,also called assuming theassuming theansweranswer (e.g., We mustinstitute the death penalty todiscourage violent crime. Butdoes the violent crime rate infact fall when the deathpenalty is imposed? Or: Thestock market fell yesterdaybecause of a technicaladjustment and profit-taking

by investors — but is thereany independent evidence forthe causal role of“adjustment” and profit-taking; have we learnedanything at all from thispurported explanation?)

7. observational selectionobservational selection,also called the enumerationthe enumerationof favorableof favorablecircumstancescircumstances, or as thephilosopher Francis Bacondescribed it, counting the hitsand forgetting the misses(e.g., A state boasts of thePresidents it has produced,but is silent on its serialkillers)

8. statistics of smallstatistics of smallnumbersnumbers — a close relativeof observational selection

by investors — but is thereany independent evidence forthe causal role of“adjustment” and profit-taking; have we learnedanything at all from thispurported explanation?)

7. observational selectionobservational selection,also called the enumerationthe enumerationof favorableof favorablecircumstancescircumstances, or as thephilosopher Francis Bacondescribed it, counting the hitsand forgetting the misses(e.g., A state boasts of thePresidents it has produced,but is silent on its serialkillers)

8. statistics of smallstatistics of smallnumbersnumbers — a close relativeof observational selection

(e.g., “They say 1 out of every 5people is Chinese. How is thispossible? I know hundreds ofpeople, and none of them isChinese. Yours truly.” Or: “I’vethrown three sevens in a row.Tonight I can’t lose.”)

9. misunderstanding of themisunderstanding of thenature of statisticsnature of statistics (e.g.,President Dwight Eisenhowerexpressing astonishment andalarm on discovering thatfully half of all Americanshave below averageintelligence);

10. inconsistencyinconsistency (e.g.,Prudently plan for the worstof which a potential militaryadversary is capable, butthriftily ignore scientificprojections on environmental

(e.g., “They say 1 out of every 5people is Chinese. How is thispossible? I know hundreds ofpeople, and none of them isChinese. Yours truly.” Or: “I’vethrown three sevens in a row.Tonight I can’t lose.”)

9. misunderstanding of themisunderstanding of thenature of statisticsnature of statistics (e.g.,President Dwight Eisenhowerexpressing astonishment andalarm on discovering thatfully half of all Americanshave below averageintelligence);

10. inconsistencyinconsistency (e.g.,Prudently plan for the worstof which a potential militaryadversary is capable, butthriftily ignore scientificprojections on environmental

(e.g., “They say 1 out of every 5people is Chinese. How is thispossible? I know hundreds ofpeople, and none of them isChinese. Yours truly.” Or: “I’vethrown three sevens in a row.Tonight I can’t lose.”)

9. misunderstanding of themisunderstanding of thenature of statisticsnature of statistics (e.g.,President Dwight Eisenhowerexpressing astonishment andalarm on discovering thatfully half of all Americanshave below averageintelligence);

10. inconsistencyinconsistency (e.g.,Prudently plan for the worstof which a potential militaryadversary is capable, butthriftily ignore scientificprojections on environmental

dangers because they’re not“proved.” Or: Attribute thedeclining life expectancy inthe former Soviet Union to thefailures of communism manyyears ago, but never attributethe high infant mortality ratein the United States (nowhighest of the majorindustrial nations) to thefailures of capitalism. Or:Consider it reasonable for theUniverse to continue to existforever into the future, butjudge absurd the possibilitythat it has infinite durationinto the past);

11. non sequiturnon sequitur — Latin for“It doesn’t follow” (e.g., Ournation will prevail because

dangers because they’re not“proved.” Or: Attribute thedeclining life expectancy inthe former Soviet Union to thefailures of communism manyyears ago, but never attributethe high infant mortality ratein the United States (nowhighest of the majorindustrial nations) to thefailures of capitalism. Or:Consider it reasonable for theUniverse to continue to existforever into the future, butjudge absurd the possibilitythat it has infinite durationinto the past);

11. non sequiturnon sequitur — Latin for“It doesn’t follow” (e.g., Ournation will prevail because

God is great. But nearly everynation pretends this to betrue; the German formulationwas “Gott mit uns”). Oftenthose falling into the nonsequitur fallacy have simplyfailed to recognize alternativepossibilities;

12. post hoc, ergo propterpost hoc, ergo propterhochoc — Latin for “It happenedafter, so it was caused by”(e.g., Jaime Cardinal Sin,Archbishop of Manila: “I knowof … a 26-year-old who looks60 because she takes[contraceptive] pills.” Or:Before women got the vote,there were no nuclearweapons)

13. meaningless questionmeaningless question

God is great. But nearly everynation pretends this to betrue; the German formulationwas “Gott mit uns”). Oftenthose falling into the nonsequitur fallacy have simplyfailed to recognize alternativepossibilities;

12. post hoc, ergo propterpost hoc, ergo propterhochoc — Latin for “It happenedafter, so it was caused by”(e.g., Jaime Cardinal Sin,Archbishop of Manila: “I knowof … a 26-year-old who looks60 because she takes[contraceptive] pills.” Or:Before women got the vote,there were no nuclearweapons)

13. meaningless questionmeaningless question

13. meaningless questionmeaningless question(e.g., What happens when anirresistible force meets animmovable object? But ifthere is such a thing as anirresistible force there can beno immovable objects, andvice versa)

14. excluded middleexcluded middle, orfalse dichotomyfalse dichotomy —considering only the twoextremes in a continuum ofintermediate possibilities(e.g., “Sure, take his side; myhusband’s perfect; I’m alwayswrong.” Or: “Either you loveyour country or you hate it.”Or: “If you’re not part of thesolution, you’re part of theproblem”)

15. short-term vs. long-short-term vs. long-termterm — a subset of the

13. meaningless questionmeaningless question(e.g., What happens when anirresistible force meets animmovable object? But ifthere is such a thing as anirresistible force there can beno immovable objects, andvice versa)

14. excluded middleexcluded middle, orfalse dichotomyfalse dichotomy —considering only the twoextremes in a continuum ofintermediate possibilities(e.g., “Sure, take his side; myhusband’s perfect; I’m alwayswrong.” Or: “Either you loveyour country or you hate it.”Or: “If you’re not part of thesolution, you’re part of theproblem”)

15. short-term vs. long-short-term vs. long-termterm — a subset of the

excluded middle, but soimportant I’ve pulled it out forspecial attention (e.g., Wecan’t afford programs to feedmalnourished children andeducate pre-school kids. Weneed to urgently deal withcrime on the streets. Or: Whyexplore space or pursuefundamental science when wehave so huge a budgetdeficit?);

16. slippery slopeslippery slope, related toexcluded middle (e.g., If weallow abortion in the firstweeks of pregnancy, it will beimpossible to prevent thekilling of a full-term infant.Or, conversely: If the stateprohibits abortion even in theninth month, it will soon be

excluded middle, but soimportant I’ve pulled it out forspecial attention (e.g., Wecan’t afford programs to feedmalnourished children andeducate pre-school kids. Weneed to urgently deal withcrime on the streets. Or: Whyexplore space or pursuefundamental science when wehave so huge a budgetdeficit?);

16. slippery slopeslippery slope, related toexcluded middle (e.g., If weallow abortion in the firstweeks of pregnancy, it will beimpossible to prevent thekilling of a full-term infant.Or, conversely: If the stateprohibits abortion even in theninth month, it will soon be

excluded middle, but soimportant I’ve pulled it out forspecial attention (e.g., Wecan’t afford programs to feedmalnourished children andeducate pre-school kids. Weneed to urgently deal withcrime on the streets. Or: Whyexplore space or pursuefundamental science when wehave so huge a budgetdeficit?);

16. slippery slopeslippery slope, related toexcluded middle (e.g., If weallow abortion in the firstweeks of pregnancy, it will beimpossible to prevent thekilling of a full-term infant.Or, conversely: If the stateprohibits abortion even in theninth month, it will soon be

telling us what to do with ourbodies around the time ofconception);

17. confusion ofconfusion ofcorrelation and causationcorrelation and causation(e.g., A survey shows thatmore college graduates arehomosexual than those withlesser education; thereforeeducation makes people gay.Or: Andean earthquakes arecorrelated with closestapproaches of the planetUranus; therefore — despitethe absence of any suchcorrelation for the nearer,more massive planet Jupiter— the latter causes theformer)

18. straw manstraw man — caricaturing

telling us what to do with ourbodies around the time ofconception);

17. confusion ofconfusion ofcorrelation and causationcorrelation and causation(e.g., A survey shows thatmore college graduates arehomosexual than those withlesser education; thereforeeducation makes people gay.Or: Andean earthquakes arecorrelated with closestapproaches of the planetUranus; therefore — despitethe absence of any suchcorrelation for the nearer,more massive planet Jupiter— the latter causes theformer)

18. straw manstraw man — caricaturing

a position to make it easier toattack (e.g., Scientists supposethat living things simply felltogether by chance — aformulation that willfullyignores the central Darwinianinsight, that Nature ratchetsup by saving what works anddiscarding what doesn’t. Or —this is also a short-term/long-term fallacy —environmentalists care morefor snail darters and spottedowls than they do for people)

19. suppressed evidencesuppressed evidence, orhalf-truthshalf-truths (e.g., Anamazingly accurate andwidely quoted “prophecy” ofthe assassination attempt onPresident Reagan is shown ontelevision; but — an important

a position to make it easier toattack (e.g., Scientists supposethat living things simply felltogether by chance — aformulation that willfullyignores the central Darwinianinsight, that Nature ratchetsup by saving what works anddiscarding what doesn’t. Or —this is also a short-term/long-term fallacy —environmentalists care morefor snail darters and spottedowls than they do for people)

19. suppressed evidencesuppressed evidence, orhalf-truthshalf-truths (e.g., Anamazingly accurate andwidely quoted “prophecy” ofthe assassination attempt onPresident Reagan is shown ontelevision; but — an important

detail — was it recordedbefore or after the event? Or:These government abusesdemand revolution, even ifyou can’t make an omelettewithout breaking some eggs.Yes, but is this likely to be arevolution in which far morepeople are killed than underthe previous regime? Whatdoes the experience of otherrevolutions suggest? Are allrevolutions againstoppressive regimes desirableand in the interests of thepeople?)

20. weasel wordsweasel words (e.g., Theseparation of powers of theU.S. Constitution specifiesthat the United States maynot conduct a war without a

detail — was it recordedbefore or after the event? Or:These government abusesdemand revolution, even ifyou can’t make an omelettewithout breaking some eggs.Yes, but is this likely to be arevolution in which far morepeople are killed than underthe previous regime? Whatdoes the experience of otherrevolutions suggest? Are allrevolutions againstoppressive regimes desirableand in the interests of thepeople?)

20. weasel wordsweasel words (e.g., Theseparation of powers of theU.S. Constitution specifiesthat the United States maynot conduct a war without a

declaration by Congress. Onthe other hand, Presidentsare given control of foreignpolicy and the conduct ofwars, which are potentiallypowerful tools for gettingthemselves re-elected.Presidents of either politicalparty may therefore betempted to arrange warswhile waving the flag andcalling the wars somethingelse — “police actions,”“armed incursions,”“protective reaction strikes,”“pacification,” “safeguardingAmerican interests,” and awide variety of “operations,”such as “Operation JustCause.” Euphemisms for warare one of a broad class ofreinventions of language for

declaration by Congress. Onthe other hand, Presidentsare given control of foreignpolicy and the conduct ofwars, which are potentiallypowerful tools for gettingthemselves re-elected.Presidents of either politicalparty may therefore betempted to arrange warswhile waving the flag andcalling the wars somethingelse — “police actions,”“armed incursions,”“protective reaction strikes,”“pacification,” “safeguardingAmerican interests,” and awide variety of “operations,”such as “Operation JustCause.” Euphemisms for warare one of a broad class ofreinventions of language for

declaration by Congress. Onthe other hand, Presidentsare given control of foreignpolicy and the conduct ofwars, which are potentiallypowerful tools for gettingthemselves re-elected.Presidents of either politicalparty may therefore betempted to arrange warswhile waving the flag andcalling the wars somethingelse — “police actions,”“armed incursions,”“protective reaction strikes,”“pacification,” “safeguardingAmerican interests,” and awide variety of “operations,”such as “Operation JustCause.” Euphemisms for warare one of a broad class ofreinventions of language for

political purposes. Talleyrandsaid, “An important art ofpoliticians is to find newnames for institutions whichunder old names havebecome odious to the public”)

Sagan ends the chapter with a necessary

disclaimer:

Like all tools, the baloney detectionkit can be misused, applied out ofcontext, or even employed as a rotealternative to thinking. But appliedjudiciously, it can make all thedifference in the world — not leastin evaluating our own argumentsbefore we present them to others.

The Demon-Haunted World is a timelessly

fantastic read in its entirety, timelier than

ever in a great many ways amidst our

present media landscape of propaganda,

pseudoscience, and various commercial

motives. Complement it with Sagan on

political purposes. Talleyrandsaid, “An important art ofpoliticians is to find newnames for institutions whichunder old names havebecome odious to the public”)

Sagan ends the chapter with a necessary

disclaimer:

Like all tools, the baloney detectionkit can be misused, applied out ofcontext, or even employed as a rotealternative to thinking. But appliedjudiciously, it can make all thedifference in the world — not leastin evaluating our own argumentsbefore we present them to others.

The Demon-Haunted World is a timelessly

fantastic read in its entirety, timelier than

ever in a great many ways amidst our

present media landscape of propaganda,

pseudoscience, and various commercial

motives. Complement it with Sagan on

motives. Complement it with Sagan on

science and “God”.

motives. Complement it with Sagan on

science and “God”.

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