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The author is Director ofAirport Development,Quadrex Aviation LLC,Melbourne, Florida.

Every day, the U.S. airspace is busy with morethan 68,000 aircraft flying between two of the3,300 public use airports throughout the

country. Commercial airlines provide nearly 30,000flights carrying more than 2 million passengers daily,traveling for business or personal reasons. Severalthousand business and private aircraft are widelyused every day for air travel. A vast network of airtraffic control facilities provides a safe and efficientenvironment for airborne travelers to depart andarrive safely at airports conveniently located neartheir home or place of business and their destination.

The workforce that supports this miracle com-

prises tens of thousands of highly skilled profes-sionals, who ensure that each flight has a successfulconclusion and that the U.S. air transportation sys-tem remains the safest in the world. Who are thesepeople?

The aviation workforce has a variety of compo-nents, each with a vital role in the operation of a com-plex system, in an environment that is unforgiving ofthe slightest errors. With a rapidly growing demandfor technologically savvy workers and a diminishingpool of people entering the labor market, the prospectsfor recruiting aviation professionals pose a new chal-lenge that requires new approaches.

The Aviation Workforce of TomorrowWhere Are They Needed—and Where Will They Come From?D A V I D A . B Y E R S

Inside the terminal atChicago Midway Airport.Commercial airlinesacross the country serve 2 million passengers onnearly 30,000 flights eachday.

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The Labor PoolFor more than five decades, baby boomers have beena demographic force in the labor market. Beginningin 1946, the U.S. birth rate exploded, adding morethan 76 million to the nation’s population by 1964.Baby boomers now range in age from 54 to 70 andcurrently represent more than 22 percent of the totalworkforce age 16 and older.

Baby boomers have dominated the labor marketsince the mid-1960s—the military buildup duringthe Vietnam era, 1961 to 1974, for example, drewprimarily on boomers. From 1964 to 1973, the mil-itary added 8.3 million enlisted personnel throughconscription and voluntary enlistments. When thesesoldiers, sailors, and airmen left the armed forces,they brought their training and skills to the civilianworld, especially to the aviation industry.

The U.S. birthrate has declined steadily in the past60 years; as the boomers begin to retire, fewer peopleare entering the labor market. At the same time, thenational economy is growing and shifting toward dig-

itally focused technology, and the global economicenvironment is increasingly competitive, exacerbatingthe demand for skilled workers. Table 1 (above, right)illustrates the impact of declining numbers in theentry-level workforce in the next 10 years.

The total workforce is projected to grow by aslight 0.5 percent, but the young workforce of 16- to24-year olds is expected to decline by 1.3 percent, asis a subgroup of 20- to 24-year olds, the “emergingworkforce.” This subgroup represents the majority ofthose needed by the aviation industry to meet thedemands for qualified and capable employees. Theemerging workers will require some college, mili-tary, or work experience, along with specializedtraining, to enter the field of aviation.

Work EnvironmentThe national air transportation system draws onthree major sectors: aircraft operators, air traffic con-trol, and airports. Figure 1 (below) illustrates therelationship and general functions of each workforcecomponent.

Distinct entities govern and operate each segmentof the U.S. air transportation system. The federal gov-ernment operates the nation’s airspace, includingalmost all air traffic control towers. Aircraft operatorsare exclusively in the domain of the private sector andinclude airlines, corporations, and individual aircraftowners. Local, regional, and state political subdivi-sions own and operate airports. Table 2 (above) pre-sents measures of air transportation network activity,as well as a 10-year forecast for each activity.

Early in the Vietnam War, the Air National Guardunloads supplies at Tân Sơn Nhất Airport. Afterreturning to the United States, many Vietnamveterans went to work in the aviation industry.

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FIGURE 1 The U.S.National AirTransportation System.

TABLE 1 Emerging Workforce

Age 2015 Total 2024 CAGRWorkforce (years) (thousands) (%) (thousands) (%)

Total 16+ 156,867 100.0 163,770 0.54

Young 16–24 20,611 13.1 18,498 –1.34

Emerging 20–24* 15,271 9.7 13,705 –1.34

Receding 55+ 33,860 21.6 40,575 2.29

Note: CAGR = compound annual growth rate.

*Assumes 2024 emerging workforce remains constant at 74 percent of young workforce.

TABLE 2 Aviation Activity

Activity 2015 2024 CAGR (%)

Commercial jet aircraft 4,727 5,401 14.3

Enplaned passengers 760,846,798* 961,000,000 26.3

Aircraft operations 49,723,000 53,778,000 8.2

Control towers 516 same

Commercial service airports 551 same

*For 2014.

SOURCE: FAA Aerospace Forecasts; FAA National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems.

Airlines and Aircraft Operators

Scheduled commercial airlinesCharter operators

Air freight and express mailCorporate travelFlight trainingPersonal travel

AirportsAirspace protection

Airfield facilitiesTerminal facilitiesGround access and parking facilities

Aircraft parking and storageProperty management

for service

Air Traffic Control–

Federal GovernmentAir traffic control

Airspace management (Navaids)Safety and regulatory compliance

Airport development fundingPassenger, baggage, and cargo security

Border protection and immigration

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The national air transportation system is expectedto grow significantly. In particular, the increase incommercial jet aircraft will require more flight crewsand mechanics. The increase in aircraft operationswill call for the addition of air traffic control special-ists, even with the implementation of automatedNextGen technologies. Passenger levels are expectedto surge by more than 26 percent. To handle theincreased travel demands, airports will have toexpand, or new ones will need to be constructed, andadditional staff will be needed.

Aviation WorkforceThe foundation of the aviation system is safety, whichinvolves the trust that all who operate within thesystem do their part. The complexities of the systemrequire a workforce that is highly educated, trained,and experienced.

For example, pilots must acquire and maintainlicenses and ratings. Air traffic controllers must becertified and be familiar with their area of responsi-bility. Airport staff must understand and comply withan extensive set of regulations and requirements toensure a safe and secure airfield environment.

Each person in a critical front-line aviation occu-pation must have licenses, certifications, training, andexperience that are not easily attained. Most employ-ers require or prefer a two- or four-year college degree.

PilotsThe airline pilot is perhaps the most visible career inthe aviation workforce. In their distinctive uniforms,pilots are a common sight in most air terminals,walking through concourses or checking in at a gate.Because of their skills and ultimate responsibility forconducting safe flights, pilots are highly regarded asconsummate professionals.

Cost of TrainingMany young people interested in aviation aspire tobecome airline or military pilots and pursue an avi-ation-related college degree. The high costs of flighttraining, combined with tuition and living expenses,however, present a significant financial burden. Acollegiate aviation program can cost $150,000 to$200,000 or more for a degree and the requisite flightratings. Flight training combined with higher edu-cation can take 4 to 5 years.

In the past 15 to 20 years, the expectation for animmediate return on investment has been low. Theaverage annual compensation for an entry-level firstofficer on a regional airline turboprop ranges from$29,000 to $38,000. The trade-off is gaining theexperience and the flight hours, essential to advanceto larger aircraft, for promotion to captain, and for aposition with one of the large mainline air carriersthat offer a significant increase in compensation. Thejunior pilots pay their dues, as did their predecessors,but can look forward to an average annual compen-sation of $214,000 or more as a 10-year captain at amajor airline.

As the national airtransportation systemexpands, so does theneed for trained airportand aviation personnel.

Although starting salariesfor commercial pilots arelow, the career path canlead to a well-compen-sated position at a majorairline.

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Entry-Level ChangesThe labor environment for entry-level pilots haschanged radically in the past few years. Bankruptciesand mergers among the major and regional airlineshave been disruptive, and the legislative reaction toa tragic airline accident has had a deleterious impacton the pilot workforce pipeline.

In July 2013, FAA implemented a rule that all firstofficers of commercial airline flights hold an Air Trans-port Pilot (ATP) license. The ATP license requires aminimum of 1,500 flight hours; previously, an entry-level first officer could be employed with a commer-cial pilot license that required 250 flight hours.

A “restricted privileges” ATP (R-ATP) is availableand can reduce the hours requirement for pilots whohave graduated from a 2- or 4-year collegiate aviationprogram. Most graduates, however, have acquiredonly 300 to 500 total flight hours and must findother means to attain the balance to qualify for theR-ATP.

Finding gainful employment to build up flighthours and to meet the requirements for employmentas an airline pilot can set a graduate back by 1 to 2years. In the meanwhile, student loan payments andother financial obligations can force some to findemployment elsewhere, sometimes in other aviation-related jobs, but sometimes in other careers.

Regional Airlines’ NeedsRegional airlines traditionally have served as apipeline for pilots to the major airlines but recentlyhave met difficulties in finding entry-level pilots; theATP requirement is only partly the cause. Airlinemergers, the consolidation of markets, and the highoperating costs of aircraft have hampered the prof-itability of regional airlines.

Moreover, as the number of airline pilots retiringat age 65 is growing, many experienced pilots areleaving the regional airlines to take their place. Thedelayed entry of R-ATP licensed pilots and the highercosts of attracting new first officers have com-pounded the problem.

Maintenance TechniciansAircraft maintenance technicians are no less impor-tant than pilots for the safe operation of aircraft. Toattain a certificate to work on aircraft, a prospectivetechnician must complete 18 months of practicalwork experience applicable to either an airframe ora powerplant rating. To earn both ratings, the tech-nician must complete a certified aviation mainte-nance program or demonstrate 30 months ofapplicable experience.

Each rating requires at least 400 hours of generalcourse work plus 750 hours related to airframe or

powerplant technology. Technicians pursuing bothratings need a combined total of 1,900 hours. Thecombined program typically takes 18 to 24 months.Many collegiate programs throughout the UnitedStates offer a 2-year technical degree in aircraft main-tenance.

Airlines hire entry-level maintenance techniciansprimarily from the aviation programs with whichthey are familiar. Other industries, however, havediscovered the skills and competence of these grad-uates and are now competing with the airlines—notably the automobile industry, which is increasingits focus on technology related to automated andconnected vehicles.

Air Traffic ControllersThe demand for air traffic controllers has remainedsteady for the past 30 years. In August 1981, the Pro-fessional Air Traffic Controllers Organization(PATCO) called a general strike nationwide. Morethan 11,000 PATCO workers refused the order toreturn to work immediately and were fired. Not justanyone can be a controller—rebuilding the rank-and-file operators of the air traffic control system to the pre-strike staffing level took FAA more than 10 years.

A hands-on laboratory atthe Lansing CommunityCollege AviationTechnology Programtrains students to workon aircraft.

A technician monitorssystems supporting airtraffic control service atthe Chicago En RouteCenter in Aurora, Illinois.The Federal AviationAdministration has arigorous qualificationand training program forprospective employees.

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Controllers must have certain traits and mustexhibit organizational, analytical, and decision-mak-ing skills. They must undergo strict medical and psy-chological screening, and can be disqualified formost anomalies, including a history of drug use.Trainees must be under age 31, pass the medical andsecurity requirements, and have a minimum of 3years of progressively responsible work experience,a bachelor’s degree, or a combination of post-sec-ondary education and work experience.

A new candidate requires 18 to 36 months aftergraduation to qualify operationally for a position.FAA expects that the current workforce of 14,000controllers will lose nearly 12,000—or 86 percent—in the next 10 years. The agency attributes the pro-jected losses to a variety of reasons, but becausecontrollers must retire from active duty at age 56, 34percent of the attrition will result from retirements,the majority in the next 5 years.

Airport Operations PersonnelLike the other components, airports require a well-

trained and skilled workforce to provide services ina multifaceted and dynamic environment. In thissector as well, many of the most experienced work-ers are approaching retirement.

Airports that accommodate air carrier operationsmust meet a complex series of operational require-ments to maintain certification. Although FAA pro-vides the oversight, the airport operator isresponsible for providing a safe and secure environ-ment for all users. The personnel who manage air-field and terminal facilities must undergo significanttraining in a variety of activities, including wildlifecontrol, emergency preparedness—such as aircraftrescue and firefighting—snow removal, runwayinspections, pavement maintenance, and security.

Airports typically fill entry-level operations posi-tions with graduates from collegiate aviation man-agement programs, including those who havecompleted some flight training but are not continu-ing or pursuing a flying job.

Industry’s ResponseThe increasing rate of retirements among key per-sonnel in each of the components of the aviationfield has compounded the difficulty of attracting,hiring, training, and retaining a workforce with therequired skills. Although providing opportunities foradvancement, the retirements create a vacuum forfilling vacancies as personnel are promoted orrecruited.

Table 3 (below, left) illustrates the state of the avi-ation workforce and the anticipated need for per-sonnel within the next 10 years. The projections arebased on data from Table 2, applying simple metricsto associate aviation activity directly with each work-force category.

Assessing the OutlookThe projections may be conservative in the contextof manufacturers’ forecasts for new aircraft. BothBoeing and Airbus anticipate significant orders fornew aircraft in the next 20 years. Airbus expects aneed for more than 1,900 new aircraft—in additionto those replacing the aging fleet—for North Amer-ican markets by 2034. Boeing’s forecast is moreaggressive and includes regional jets—a demand for2,600 new aircraft during the same period.

Table 3 does not explicitly account for severalcomplicating factors: (a) the momentum of babyboomers leaving the aviation workforce; (b) theincreasing difficulty of finding qualified, eligible, andinterested new candidates; and (c) the competitionfrom nonaviation and foreign interests for U.S. work-ers through better compensation and less restrictivequalifications.

TABLE 3 Aviation Workforce Projections

Workforce Category 2015 Metric 2024

Airline pilotsa 73,240 15.5 83,683

Airline mechanicsa 46,835 9.9 53,513

Air traffic controllersb 14,007 3,549.9 15,149

Airport staffc 40,750 18.7 51,470

Total 174,832 203,815

a Per aircraft.b Per 1,000 aircraft operations.c Per 1,000 enplaned passengers.

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics TranStats; FAA Air Traffic Controllers WorkforcePlan; FAA Certification Activity Tracking System (443 airports reporting).

Biologists conductresearch to reducewildlife collisions withaircraft. Airportemployees cover avariety of disciplines.

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Ab Initio TrainingThe aviation industry in the United States is respond-ing with new approaches. Historically, several inter-national airlines had established ab initio flighttraining programs that offer young people free flighttraining in return for several years of dedicated ser-vice to the airline. The U.S. military essentially hasused this approach for decades through the militaryacademies, the Reserve Officers Training Corps, andaviation cadet programs, but airlines in the UnitedStates only recently have begun to explore the abinitio model.

JetBlue, for example, has started a program of abinitio flight training for a small group of candidates.Other airlines are participating with colleges throughbridge programs that offer candidates a guaranteedinterview or similar incentive for employment. Theseprograms may serve the interests of the sponsoringairlines, but the enrollments do not come close tomeeting the needs of the airline industry as a whole.

FAA InitiativesIn 1989, FAA instituted the Collegiate Training Initia-tive (CTI), which partnered with aviation colleges andtrade schools to prepare graduates for air traffic controland similar technical positions. Although not a guar-antee of employment with FAA, the CTI program pre-screened qualified and motivated candidates foracceptance into the FAA Academy. Graduates of theCTI program, as well as military-trained controllers,were a preferred source of applicants and could bypassthe first phase of the FAA Academy training.

In 2013, FAA changed its hiring practices toencourage a broader base of applicants and to open

the recruiting process to the general public. Theimpact has been substantial—enrollments at many ofthe CTI programs have dropped, and students havechanged majors to flight programs and to unmannedaircraft systems programs. At the University of NorthDakota, for example, enrollments in the CTI pro-gram dropped 49 percent between 2013 and 2015.Beaver College in Pennsylvania has reported a dropof 70 percent, and Aims Community College in Col-orado has experienced a 66 percent decline.

The agency has acknowledged that the failure rate among new candidates at the FAA Academyincreased after the shift in recruitment strategies andexpects that the numbers of washouts will acceleratein the next 5 years. FAA plans to counter this trendby increasing the number of candidates and operat-ing the FAA Academy close to capacity for the nextfew years.

Organizational OutreachThrough organizations such as the American Asso-ciation of Airport Executives (AAAE) and the AirportCouncil International–North America (ACI-NA), theairport community has actively encouraged aviationstudents to consider careers in airport operationsand management. Many students participate in stu-dent chapters of these organizations and in other on-campus programs, which provide incentives toattend regional chapter and national conferences.

Through recruitment for entry-level jobs, schol-arships, internships, and networking, the airportindustry is developing a strong relationship with avi-ation management students and encouraging themto pursue careers in the airport workforce.

An Air Force ReserveOfficers Training Corps(ROTC) cadet learnsabout aerial refuelingduring an orientationflight. ROTC serves as anab initio flight trainingprogram for pilots.

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Working TogetherHeadlines predicting pilot shortages and other short-falls in the aviation workforce as a result of large-scaleretirements will continue as the numbers of thoseentering the labor market do not fill the numbers ofvacancies. National and global economic growth willaccelerate the demand for qualified and capablepilots, technicians, air traffic controllers, and airportoperations staff. Applicants for entry-level positionsmay go wanting in the short term, but the industrymust increase efforts to provide compensation andother incentives to attract the emerging workforce toaviation careers.

Industry, government, and academia togetherneed to recruit, educate, and place young profes-sionals into the aviation workforce. In the privatesector, airlines will have to develop stronger com-pensation packages and career paths for entry-levelcandidates. They also will need to support collegiateaviation programs in attracting and retaining stu-dents, by developing strong relationships with fac-ulty, initiating mentoring programs, and perhapsoffsetting some of the costs of pursuing an aviationcareer.

Faculty at aviation programs should ask industryabout the aptitudes and abilities that will make theirgraduates employable. This is a critical link in theworkforce chain—students need to acquire valuableskills from more than lectures. Aviation is a dynamicfield that requires hands-on, real-world learning andexperience. Schools must ask for—and industrymust provide—internships, cooperative trainingarrangements, and other proactive programs to con-nect student with the world of aviation.

The federal government needs to foster an envi-ronment that supports aviation workforce develop-ment—for example, by addressing the impact of theR-ATP rule on the regional airlines. Moreover, hiringpractices for air traffic controllers may need refine-ment if qualified candidates are lacking.

Best and BrightestWhat then are the sources for the young profession-als needed to run the national air transportation sys-tem? Students in collegiate aviation programs areuniquely qualified—they are motivated and arefocused on aviation as a career. As they matriculate,aviation students tend not to be distracted by riskybehaviors and indiscretions, especially those involv-ing alcohol or drugs, because the slightest infractioncan end a career.

Aviation will attract those who have the passion;for many others, the compensation holds a stronginterest. The high cost of tuition, plus flight trainingand the investment of time, will continue to createadditional pressures for aviation students to com-plete a program.

Scholarships, ab initio and sponsored educationand training programs, loan repayment policies, andcompensation commensurate with the seriousresponsibilities are needed to attract the best andbrightest of the nation’s emerging workforce. Air-lines, airports, and air traffic control services havevested interests in ensuring an adequate pipeline ofqualified and capable candidates. The traveling pub-lic deserves to have the best and the brightest at workto ensure that the U.S. air transportation system con-tinues the safest and most efficient in the world.

Research Projects Explore Aviation Workforce Development

D A V I D A . B Y E R S

T he Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP)began to examine the future of the aviation work-

force in 2010, with the publication of Synthesis 18, Avi-ation Workforce Development Practice.a The findingsemphasized that aviation workforce development isa multifaceted process that starts before hiring andcontinues through succession planning. The synthe-sis identified several aviation industry organizationsand academic institutions with innovative programs that leverage resourcesto target and meet the industry’s workforce development needs.

More recently, ACRP has commissioned two projects on workforce devel-opment. ACRP Project 6-04, Identifying and Evaluating Airport WorkforceRequirements, is collecting data to (a) identify and evaluate current andfuture airport workforce requirements; (b) identify and evaluate education,training, and other workforce development resources; and (c) develop strate-gies to address future airport workforce requirements. The TransportationResearch Board will publish the findings as a guidebook.

ACRP Project 1-34, Developing Innovative Strategies for Aviation Educa-tion and Participation, is assembling resources to enhance young people’sinterest in aviation and to promote aviation as a career.

a www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/163380.aspx.

Airline workers atMinneapolis–St. PaulInternational Airportassist travelers. As itscurrent workforce retires,the aviation industrymust increase efforts toattract and retain newworkers.

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In 2011, the Transportation Re-search Board (TRB) created theYoung Members Council (YMC) to

encourage and expand participation byyoung professionals in all aspects of theTRB community. Although focused onassisting young professionals and stu-dents age 35 or younger, council ac-tivities are open to anyone involved inTRB. The YMC-Aviation (YMC-A)Subcommittee was launched in 2012to interact more directly with youngmembers in the TRB aviation com-munity.

The YMC-A mission is “to en -courage and support the involve-ment, education and growth ofstudents and young professionalswithin TRB, its related activities,including the Annual Meeting, andthe aviation industry as a whole.”The goals are as follows:

u Provide positive experiencesto undergraduate and graduate stu-dents interested in aviation and avi-ation-related research,

u Promote aviation-related careersto students and young professionals,

u Support a positive experience at the TRB Annual Meetingby providing guidance and mentoring for new attendees inter-ested in aviation,

u Identify avenues for young members to become involved inaviation-related committees and activities within TRB,

u Assist committee chairs by identifying young membersinterested in filling committee vacancies,

u Provide educational content of interest and value to youngmembers, and

u Have fun as a group and promote networking.

YMC-A contributed to several activities at the 2016 TRBAnnual Meeting, including the cosponsorship of two sessions:

u The Human Side of Aviation:Exploring Next-Generation Work-force Challenges (Session 371) and

u Multimodal Connections: Pas-senger Accessibility (Session 578).

YMC-A members also participatedin the Aviation Caucus and held asubcommittee meeting, followed by anetworking event.

At the 2017 TRB Annual Meeting,YMC-A members are sponsoring aworkshop and follow-up session toexamine key policy, technology, andworkforce questions for the future ofthe aviation industry. The subcom-mittee also is sponsoring a studentposter session. Upcoming prioritiesinclude the following:

u Working with the committeesin the TRB Aviation Group to sponsoror cosponsor sessions aligned withthe interests of young members,

u Sponsoring a by-invitation ses-sion featuring student poster presen-tations, and

u Increasing coordination andnetworking opportunities with young members groups in otherorganizations, such as the Airport Consultants Council, NationalBusiness Aviation Association, and the other YMC subcommit-tees.

Active participants include young professionals from nearly 50organizations, more than 20 states, and several countries. YMC-A members serve on each TRB Aviation Group committee,and several serve in leadership positions, such as CommitteeCommunication Coordinator. To get involved in YMC-A,

u Visit the website, https://sites.google.com/site/ymcaviation/; u Connect with members via a LinkedIn group, at https://

www.linkedin.com/groups/5056548; or u Send an e-mail to ymcatrb@gmail.com.

Young professionals or students interested in aviation andcamaraderie are welcome to join in—YMC-A offers a great wayto take advantage of all the collegial, professional, and careerbenefits and opportunities that TRB and YMC have to offer.

Helping Aviation Research Careers Take OffE L A I N E C . M c K E N Z I E , M AT T B E A M E R , C L AY T O N S TA M B A U G H , A N D P E N G W E I

McKenzie is an Associate, Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Chicago.Illinois. Beamer is a consultant with Ricondo & Associates, Inc.,Chicago. Illinois. Stambaugh is Airport Manager, Pekin Munici-pal Airport, Pekin, Illinois. Wei is Assistant Professor, AerospaceEngineering, Iowa State University, Ames.

The Young Members Council–Aviation supports TRBparticipation and involvement for young aviationprofessionals and students.