THE ARMS RACE IN AN ERA OF NEGOTIATIONS

The Arms Race in an Era of Negotiations

Edited by

David Carlton Lecturer in International Studies University of Warwick

and

Carlo Schaerf Professor of Physics University of Rome II

Palgrave Macmillan

© International School on Disarmament and Research on Conflicts, 1991 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1991

All rights reserved. For information, write: Scholarly and Reference Division, St. Martin's Press, Inc., 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010

First published in the United States of America in 1991

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The arms race in an era of negotiations I edited by David Carlton and Carlo Schaerf. p. em. Includes index.

1. Nuclear arms control. 2. Arms control. 3. Security, International. 4. Arms race. I. Carlton, David, 1938-II. Schaerf, Carlo. JX1974.7.A689 1991 327.1'74-dc20

ISBN 978-0-312-06176-0

ISBN 978-1-349-11969-1 ISBN 978-1-349-11967-7 (eBook)DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-11967-7

ISBN 978-0-312-06176-0

This volume is dedicated to the memory of Edoardo Amaldi (1908-89), Professor of Physics at the University of Rome and President of the Academia Nazionale dei Lincei, Founder and President of the International School on Disarmament and Research on Conflicts (ISO DARCO)

Contents Preface

List of Abbreviations

Notes on the Contributors

Lists of Course Participants

PART I STRATEGIC REALITIES

The Logic of Nuclear Strategy: The US Orientation to Counterforce

ix

Xl

Xlll

XVl

Earl C. Ravena! 3

2 The Problem of the Nuclear First-Use Option Cui Liru 20

3 The Geopolitics of Strategic Defence Earl C. Ravena! 26

4 The Nuclear Strategies of Medium Powers with Nuclear Arms Zhang Jianzhi 49

5 The Problem of Extended Deterrence in NATO Jane M. 0. Sharp

PART II CURRENT GLOBAL PROBLEMS

6 Minimum Deterrence and International Security Richard H. Ullman

7 Nuclear Cruise Missiles: The Problem of Verification

59

73

Kosta Tsipis I 00

8 The Quest for International Disarmament and the Role of Second-Rank Nuclear-Weapon States Huang Tinwei, Li Yiyan and Wang Ling 115

9 A Nuclear Test Ban: A Soviet Scientist's Viewpoint V.I. Goldanskii 126

vii

Vlll Contents

10 Stability and Verifiability of the Nuclear Balance after Deep Reductions Harold A. Feiveson and Frank von Hippe/ 14I

PART III CURRENT EUROPEAN PROBLEMS

II Franco-German Cooperative Defence: Its Logic and its Limitations Michael D. Maden I8I

I2 The Conventional Balance in Europe: 'Bean Count' or Complex Assessment? Dimitri Batani and Paolo Farinella I99

13 European Security and the Changing Context of East-West Relations Mario Zucconi

I4 The Future of Relations between Eastern and Western Europe Heinrich Siegmann

Index

223

234

257

Preface The chapters in this volume were presented to the first winter course of the International School on Disarmament and Research on Con­flicts (ISODARCO), held in Vaneze di Bondone, Italy, between 6 and 13 February 1988; the first ISODARCO course abroad, held in Beijing, China, between 4 and 7 April 1988; the twelfth ISODARCO course, held in Venice, Italy, between 18 and 28 July 1988; and the second winter ISODARCO course, held in Folgaria, Italy, between 4 and 11 February 1989.

The organisation of the Schools was made possible by the generous collaboration and financial contributions of many organisations and individuals. For their financial contributions we wish to express gratitude to:

For all of the ISO DARCO courses: The MacArthur Foundation, and in particular Dr Ruth Adams; The Italian National Research Council - National Committee for

Juridical and Political Sciences; The University of Rome Tor Vergata.

For the First Winter ISODARCO Course: The University of Trento, especially Professor Fabio Ferrari,

Rector of the University; and the Professors Mirko Elena, Ignazio Lazzizzera and Giuseppina Orlan­

dini. The Provincial Council of Trento.

For the First ISODARCO Beijing Course: The China Institute of Contemporary International Relations

(CICIR); The Institute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics

(IAPCM).

For the twelfth ISODARCO Summer Course: The University of Padova.

For the Second ISODARCO Winter Course: The University of Trento.

For hospitality in Vaneze di Bondone we are indebted to the Hotel

IX

X Preface

Monte Bondone; in Venice to both Gli Artigianelli and Domus Ciliota; and in Folgaria to the Hotel Maria and the local Tourist Agency, and in particular to Giovanna Dorigati and Fernando Larcher.

For secretarial and administrative work our thanks are due to: For the first winter course: Claudia Vaughn and Nicoletta Perco­

retti. For the twelfth summer course: Claudia Vaughn, Liu' Catena,

Anna De Grossi, Caterina Pascolini, Bruno Pellizzoni, and Anna Prosperi.

For the second winter course: Claudia Vaughan and Anna De Grossi.

All opinions expressed in the chapters are of a purely personal nature and do not necessarily represent the official view of either the organisers of the School or the organisations to which the writers may be affiliated.

DAVID CARLTON

CARLO SCHAERF

List of Abbreviations

ABM ADE ALCM ASMP ASW BMD CEP COCOM

COMECON CORRTEX

CPSU CSCE CTB DNA DOD DPP EDC EMT FAR GNP GPS ICBM IHE IISS INF IRBM LTBT MAD MBT MIRV MT NAS NATO NPT NTM

Anti-ballistic Missile Armoured Division Equivalent Air-launched Cruise Missile Air-Sol Moyenne Portee Anti-submarine Warfare Ballistic Missile Defence Circular Error Probable Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls Council for Mutual Economic Assistance Continuous Releftometry for Radius versus Time Experiments Communist Party of the Soviet Union Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe Complete Test Ban Deoxyrybonucleic Acid Department of Defense (US) Defense Policy Panel (US) European Defence Community Equivalent Megatons Force d'Action Rapide Gross National Product Ground Positioning System Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Insensitive High Explosives International Institute for Strategic Studies Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Intermediate-range Ballistic Missile Limited Test Ban Treaty Mutual Assured Destruction Main Battle Tank Multiple lndependently-targetable Reentry Vehicle megaton National Academy of Sciences (US) North Atlantic Treaty Organisation Non-proliferation Treaty National Technical Means

xi

xii

REVU RV SACEUR SALT SDI SLBM SLCM SNF SRAM START TTBT UN WEU

List of Abbreviations

Remote Verification Unit Reentry vehicle Supreme Allied Commander Europe (NATO) Strategic Arms Limitation Talks Strategic Defense Initiative Submarine-launched Ballistic Missile Sea-launched Cruise Missile Short-range Nuclear Forces Short-range Attack Missile Strategic Arms Reduction Talks Threshold Test Ban Treaty United Nations Western European Union

Notes on the Contributors

Dimitri Batani (Italian) is engaged on preparing a doctoral disserta­tion in Physics at the University ofPisa. He is a member of the Italian Union of Scientists for Disarmament and of the Study Group on Alternative Security Options for Italy.

David Carlton (British) (co-editor) is Lecturer in International Studies at the University of Warwick. He is author of MacDonald versus Henderson: The Foreign Policy of the Second Labour Government; of Anthony Eden: A Biography; of Britain and the Suez Crisis; and of numerous articles on modern international politics. Dr Carlton is co­editor of ten previous volumes in this series.

Cui Liru (Chinese) is Deputy Head of the Division for North America Studies at the China Institute of Contemporary International Re­lations in Beijing.

Paolo Farinella (Italian) is working on space physics and planetary science at the University of Pisa. He has published extensively on astronomy and has also contributed to previous ISODARCO volumes. He is currently engaged on a study, commissioned by the Italian Ministry of Defence, of alternative defence concepts and the role of Italy.

Harold A. Feiveson (US) is Research Policy Analyst with the Program on Nuclear Policy Alternatives at Princeton University's Center for Energy and Environmental Studies. He was formerly a policy analyst in the Science Bureau of the US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency. He is Editor of Science and Global Security.

V. I. Goldanskii (Soviet) is based at the Institute of Chemical Physics of the Soviet Academy of Sciences (of which he has been a full member since 1981 ). He has been a member of the Council of the Executive Committee of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs since 1987. He holds the Order of Lenin and other Soviet decorations; and is honorary member of numerous Academies of Sciences throughout the world.

Huang Tinwei (Chinese) is Head of the Divison for Comprehensive Studies at the China Institute of Contemporary International Re­lations in Beijing.

Xlll

XlV Notes on the Contributors

Li Yiyan (Chinese) is Associate Research Fellow at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations in Beijing.

Michael D. Maden (US) is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Casson-Newman College, Tennessee. He has been a Visiting Lecturer in International Relations and Comparative Politics at California State University, San Bernardino. He was awarded a doctorate by the University of California, Davis.

Earl C. Ravenal (US) is Distinguished Research Professor of Inter­national Affairs at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service; and a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute, Washington, D.C. A former official in the Office of the US Secretary of Defense, he is author of nine books and numerous articles on US foreign and military policy and on international politics.

Carlo Schaerf (Italian) (co-editor) is Professor of Physics at the University of Rome Tor Vergata. He was previously a Research Associate at Stanford University and on the staff of the Italian Atomic Energy Commission. With Professor Edoardo Amaldi he founded in 1966 the International School on Disarmament and Research on Conflicts (ISODARCO). He was appointed Director of ISO DARCO in 1970. He is co-editor of ten previous volumes in this series.

Jane M. 0. Sharp (British) is a Senior Researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute where she is directing a project exploring alternative European futures. She was formerly a researcher at Cornell and Harvard Universities. She has published articles on European security and arms control themes in such journals as Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists; Arms Control; International Secur­ity; and International Affairs. She is author (with David Holloway) of The Warsaw Pact: Alliance in Transition?

Heinrich Siegmann (West German) is a researcher at the Deutsch­Amerikaniches Institut in Freiburg. He was formerly a Co-Director of the research programme on stability-orientated security and defence policy in the Max Planck Society, Starnberg. In 1976 he was awarded a M.Sc. degree in Computer Science by the University of Colorado; and in 1983 he obtained a Doctorate in Political Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Kosta Tsipis (US) is Director of the Program in Science and Tech­nology for International Security at the Massachusetts Institute of

Notes on the Contributors XV

Technology. He holds a Ph.D. from Columbia University. He is author of three books, co-editor of seven further books and author of more than sixty scientific papers.

Richard H. Ullman (US) is the David K. E. Bruce Professor of International Affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs of Princeton University. He has been a Rhodes Scholar at the University of Oxford; a member of the Department of Government at Harvard University; and a Visiting Fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. He has also served on the staff of the US National Security Council and in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. He is author of a three-volume study, Anglo­Soviet Relations 1917-1921.

Frank von Hippel (US) is a physicist who is Professor of Public and International Affairs at the Center for Energy and Environmental Studies at Princeton University. He is Co-Chairman of the Editorial Board of Science and Global Security.

Wang Ling (Chinese) is Associate Research Fellow at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations in Beijing.

Zhang Jianzhi (Chinese) is Senior Researcher at the Centre for International Studies under the State Council of Chiria in Beijing. A graduate of the Beijing Aviation Institute, he formerly served as a researcher on science and technology for national defence. He has published widely in Chinese on strategic issues including the possible militarisation of space.

Mario Zucconi (Italian) is Director of US and Western Alliance Studies at the Centro Studi di Politica Internazionale in Rome. He has been a Visiting Professor at the University of Naples and at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs of Princeton University. He was co-editor (with Richard H. Ullman) of Western Europe and the Crisis in US-Soviet Relations; and has published extensively in Italian.

Lists of Course Participants Vanezze di Bondone (Trento), Italy, 6-13 February 1988

Argentini, Stefania (Italian) Via dei Sabelli 55, 00185 Rome, Italy. Assar, Khairallah (Syrian) P.O. Box 466, Annaba, Algeria. Batani, Dimitri (Italian) Via Rossini 49, Rosignano Solvay (Livorno),

Italy. Bertotti, Bruno (Italian) Department of Nuclear and Theoretical

Physics, University of Pavia, Via Bassi 6, 27100 Pavia, Italy. Calogero, Francesco (Italian) Department of Physics, 1st University

of Rome, P. le Aldo Moro 2, 00185 Rome, Italy. Carlton, David (British) Department of International Studies,

University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK. Carossini, Paolo (Italian) Via dei Conti 11, 50123 Florence, Italy. Costa, Sergio (Italian) Institute of High Physics, University of Turin,

Corso Massimo D'Azeglio 46, 10125 Turin, Italy. Cotta-Ramusino, Paolo (Italian) Department of Physics, University

of Milan, Via Celoria 16, 20133 Milan, Italy. D'Angelo, Annalisa (Italian) Department of Physics, 2nd University

of Rome, Via Orazio Raimondo, 00173 Rome, Italy. Dellevoet, Andre (Dutch) Kapittellaarn 5605, 6229 vp, Maastricht,

The Netherlands. Drapers, Carel (Dutch) SIB-Groningen, Postbus 1287, 9701 BG

Groningen, The Netherlands. Drougos, Athanassios (Greek) Constantinopoleos 27, Holargos, Ath­

ens, Greece. Dupre, Franco (Italian) Department of Physics, 1st University of

Rome, P. le Aldo Moro 2, 00185 Rome, Italy. Eccher, Fausto (Italian) USPID, cjo Faculty of Science, University of

Trento, 38050 (Trento), Italy. Elena, Mirko (Italian) cjo IRST 38050 Povo (Trento), Italy. Farinella, Paolo (Italian) Department of Mathematics, Via Buonar­

roti 2, 56100 Pisa, Italy. Greb, G. Allen (US) Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation,

Central Office, Q-068, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.

Jacobs, Saskia (Dutch) Prof. Bromstraat 17, Nigmegen, The Nether­lands.

Lanzani, Guglielmo (Italian) cjo Prof. A. Piazzoli, USPID, Institute

XVI

Lists of Course Participants xvii

of Nuclear and Theoretical Physics, University of Pavia, via A. Bassi 6, 27100 Pavia, Italy.

Latella, Diego (Italian) CNR-CNUCE, viaS. Maria 36, 56100 Pisa, Italy.

Lazzizzera, lgnazio (Italian) Department of Physics, University of Trento, 38050 Povo (TN), Italy.

De Lillo, Silvana (Italian) Department of Physics, University of Salerno, 84100 Salerno, Italy.

Nocera, Luigi (Italian) Institute of Atomic and Molecular Physics, Italian Research Council, via Giardino 7, 56100 Pisa, Italy.

Orlandini, Giuseppina (Italian) Physics Department, University of Trento, 38050 Povo (TN), Italy.

Schaerf, Carlo (Italian) Department of Physics, 2nd University of Rome, via E. Carnevale, 00173 Rome, Italy.

Siegmann, Heinrich (West German) MPG, Bahnhofsplatz 4, 8130 Starnberg, Federal Republic of Germany.

Song, Gang (Chinese) The Institute of Political Science, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, China.

Takagi, Takashi (Japanese) 2-12-10 Narita-Rigashi, Suginami-ku, Tokyo 166, Japan.

Tromp, Hylke (Dutch) Polemological Institute, University of Gron­ingen, Heresingel 13, 9711 ER Groningen, The Netherlands.

Vietri, Anna (Italian) I.U.O., Department of Philosophy and Politics, Via Nardones 113, 80134 Naples, Italy.

Beijing, China, 4-7 April 1988

Cao Xilong (Chinese) Assistant Research Fellow, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR).

Chen Xueyin (Chinese) Associated General Engineer, Ministry of Nuclear Industry.

Chu Shulong (Chinese) Assistant Research Fellow, CICIR. Cui Liru (Chinese) Deputy Head, Division for North America Stu­

dies, CICIR. Du Xiangwan (Chinese) Deputy Director, Institute of Applied Phys­

ics and Computational Mathematics (IAPCM). Dupre, Franco (Italian) Professor, Universita di Roma La Sapienza,

P. le Aldo Moro 2, 1-00185 Roma, Italy. Fan Guobin (Chinese) Engineer, China Academy of Engineering

Physics.

xviii Lists of Course Participants

Garwin, Richard (US) IBM Fellow, The Thomas J. Watson Center, P.O. Box 218, Yorktown Heights, New York, 10598, USA.

Guo Shufang (Chinese) President, Department of Strategic Studies, Academy of Military Science.

Guo Zhenyuan (Chinese) Head, Division for International Eco­nomics and Technological Development Studies, Center for Inter­national Studies under the State Council.

He Zhuxiu (Chinese) Member, China Academy of Sciences. Hu Side (Chinese) Deputy Director, IAPCM. Hua San (Chinese) Department of International Organizations and

Conferences, Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Hua Xinsheng (Chinese) Associate Research Fellow, China Academy

of Engineering Physics. Huang Suofeng (Chinese) Research Fellow, Academy of Military

Science. Huang Tingwei (Chinese) Head, Division for Comprehensive Studies,

CICIR. Jiang Zhenix (Chinese) Research Fellow, Beijing Institute Internat­

ional Strategic Studies. Jin Youzai (Chinese) Department of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of

Nuclear Industry. Li Wenfeng (Chinese) Associate Research Fellow, China Defense

Science and Technology Information Center (CDSTIC). Li Yiyan (Chinese) Associate Research Fellow, CICIR. Liu Huaqui (Chinese) Associate Research Fellow, CDSTIC. Liu Sequing (Chinese) Director, CICIR. Lu Zhenlin (Chinese) Associate Research Fellow, Beijing Institute of

Systematic Engineering. Pan Juseng (Chinese) Associate Research Fellow, CDSTIC. Pascolini, Alessandro (Italian) Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita

Degli Studi di Padova, Via F. Marzolo, 8, I-35131 Padova, Italy. Qiao Dengjiang (Chinese) Research Fellow, Northwest Institute for

Nuclear Technology. Ravena], Earl C. (US) Distinguished Research Professor of Internat­

ional Affairs, Georgetown University, 4439 Cathedral Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20016, USA.

Schaerf, Carlo (Italian) Director of ISODARCO, Dipartimento di Fisica, II Universita Degli Studi di Roma Tor Vergata, Via E. Carnevale, I-00173 Rome.

Sharp, Jane (British) Senior Research Fellow, Stockholm Internat-

Lists of Course Participants XlX

ional Peace Research Institute, Pipers vag 28, S-171 73 Solna, Sweden.

Shen Kechang (Chinese) Research Fellow, CICIR. Shen Qurong (Chinese) Deputy Director, CICIR. Shu Yuan Hsieh (Chinese) Independent Researcher, 7894 Fairview

Road, Lesage, West Virginia 25537, USA. Song Jiashu (Chinese) General Engineer, Ministry of Nuclear Indus­

try. Tang Xinqing (Chinese) Senior Engineer, China Nuclear Information

Center. Von Rippel, Frank (US) Professor of Public and International

Affairs, Princeton University, Center for Energy and Environmen­tal Studies, The Engineering Quadrangle, Princeton, New Jersey 08544, USA.

Wan Guang (Chinese) Head, Division for International Politics Studies, Center for International Politics Studies under the State Council.

Wang Ling (Chinese) Associate Research Fellow, CICIR. Wang Qi (Chinese) Assistant Research Fellow, Academy of Military

Science. Wang Suzhong (Chinese) Deputy Head, International Politics Div­

ision, Institute of World Economy and Politics, China Academy of Social Sciences.

Wang Yang (Chinese) Research Fellow, Academy of Military Sci­ence.

Wen Zhongua (Chinese) Research Fellow, Institute of Strategic Studies, National Defense University.

Wu Zhan (Chinese) Deputy Director, Institute of American Studies, China Academy of Social Sciences.

Xia Yisan (Chinese) Deputy Head, Division for Comprehensive Studies, China Institute of International Studies.

Xu Yuancao (Chinese) Deputy Head, Executive Office, Chinese People's Association for Peace and Disarmament.

Yang Zhongcheng (Chinese) Deputy Director, CDSTIC. Yin Yanjun (Chinese) Chinese People's Association for International

Peace and Disarmament. Yu Mingde (Chinese) Associate Research Fellow, Northwest Institute

of Nuclear Technology. Yu Zhiyong (Chinese) Department of International Organizations

and Conference, Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

XX Lists of Course Participants

Zhang Jianzhi (Chinese) Senior Fellow, Center for International Studies under the State Council.

Zhang Yongcang (Chinese) Research Fellow, CICIR. Zhao Chunyang (Chinese) Engineer, Science and Technology Com­

mittee, Ministry of Nuclear Industry. Zhou Yunhua (Chinese) Associate Research Fellow, CDSTIC. Zhu Jaihung (Chinese) Research Fellow, Institute of International

Technological Economy under the State Council.

Venice, Italy, 18-28 July 1988

Abdel-Moneim, Mohamed (Egyptian) Gallmeyergasse 5, 1190 Vienna, Austria.

Akimov, Vladimir P. (Russian) Institute of the USA and Canada, Academy of Sciences of the USSR, Khlebny per. 2/3 Moscow 121814, USSR.

Aminu, L. S. (Nigerian) Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, 13/15 Kofo Abayomi Road, Victoria Island, G.P.O. Box 1712, Lagos, Nigeria.

Annequin, Jean-Louis (French) 15 rue Marie Laurencin, 75012 Paris, France.

Arya, Gotham (Thai) Department of Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok 10500, Thai­land.

Asmawi, Jelani bin Hj (Malaysian) Defence Intelligence State Div­ision, Ministry of Defence, 50634 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Assar, Khairallah (Syrian) B.P. 466, Annaba, Algeria. Ballis, Dimitri (Greek) 11, Athinas Street, 166 73 Voula, Athens,

Greece. Batani, Dimitri (Italian) Via Rossini 49, Rosignano Solvay (Livorno),

Italy. Bernild, Ole (Danish) Brumleby G21, 2100 Kopenhagen 0, Denmark. Betchov, Robert (US/Swiss) World Federal Authority Committee,

24B Ingolfsallee, 2300 S Kopenhagen DK, Denmark. Bingen, Jon (Norwegian) Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt, Bygdoy

Aile 3, Postboks 8159 Dep., 0033 Oslo I, Norway. Boliny, Guo (Chinese) Institute of Applied Physics and Computatio­

nal Mathematics, No. 6 Huayuan Road, Hai-Dian District, P.O. Box 8009, Beijing, China.

Boserup, Anders (Danish) Onsgaardsveg 13, DK-2900 Hellerup, Denmark.

Lists of Course Participants XXI

Burzynski, Andrzej (Polish) Institute of State and Law, Polish Acad­emy of Sciences, Dziennikarska 24, 01-605 Warsaw, Poland.

Calogero, Francesco (Italian) Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita di Roma, P. le Aldo Moro 2, 1-00185 Roma, Italy.

Carlton, David (British) Department of International Studies, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL. United Kingdom.

Carossini, Paolo (Italian) Via dei Conti 11, 1-50123 Firenze, Italy. Castelli, Antonio (Italian) Giudecca 204, scala B, Venezia, Italy. Cooperstein, Bruce (US) Provost, College Eight, Office of the Pro-

vost, University of California, Santa Cruz, California 95064, USA. Corbin, Theodore Arthur (US) Massachusetts Institute of Tech­

nology, Room 20A-Oll, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, USA. D'Agostino, Anna (Italian) via Pordenone, 5, 1-00040 Ardea (Roma),

Italy. Dallmeyer, Dorinda (US) Route 4, Box 4049, Danielsville, Georgia

30633, USA. De Diepenbroek, Leticia Osorio (Mexican) Van Riemsdijklaan 210,

1945 XT, Beverwyk, The Netherlands. De Lillo, Silvana (Italian) Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita di

Perugia, 1-06100 Perugia, Italy. De Marchi, Vittoria (Italian) Rinascita Magazine, Via dei Caudini 6,

1-00185 Roma, Italy. Desimio, Anna Maria (Italian) via Bonito 32, Napoli, Italy. Dietl, Gu1shan (Indian) P.O.B. 1105, D-8011 Poking, West Germany. Douma, Wybe (Dutch) Herestraat 77, 9711 LC Groningen, The

Netherlands. Dupre, Franco (Italian) Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita di Roma,

P. le Aldo Moro 2, 1-00185 Roma, Italy. Edwards, Paul (US) History of Consciousness, University of Califor­

nia, Santa Cruz, California 95064, USA. Enserink, Bert (Dutch) Lammerhof 39, 7232 AR Warnsveld, The

Netherlands. Ernest, John (US) Global Peace and Security Program, University of

California, Santa Barbara, California 93106, USA. Farinella, Paolo (Italian) Dipartimento di Matematica, Via Buonar­

roti, 2, 1-56100, Pisa, Italy. Farinelli, Ugo (Italian) National Committee for the Development of

Nuclear and Alternative Energy (ENEA), 125 V. le Regina Mar­gherita, 1-00185 Roma, Italy.

Frolov, V. (Soviet) Space Research Institute, Profsouznaya 88, Mos­cow, USSR.

XXll Lists of Course Participants

Ghosh, Partha S. (India) Deputy Director, Indian Council of Social Science Research, Post Box No. 712, 35 Ferozeshah Road, New Delhi II 0 00 I, India.

Goldanskii, Vitalii I. (Soviet) Academy of Sciences of the USSR, Institute of Chemical Physics, Ulitsa Kossygina, 4, Moscow 117334, USSR.

Goliszewski, Javier Andres (Argentinian) Adjunct Consul of Argen­tina, Argentinian Embassy, Milano, Italy.

Gonella, Francesco (Italian) Strada Monta 20, 1-35138 Padova, Italy. Greb, G. Allen (US) Associate Director, Institute on Global Conflict

and Cooperation, Q-068, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093, USA.

Gunnarsen, Ruth Birgit (Danish) World Federal Authority Commit­tee, Ingolfs aile 24 B, 2300 Kopenhagen S-DK, Denmark.

Hagmeyer-Gaverus, Gerd (German) Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Pipers vag 28, S-171 73 Solna, Sweden.

Halperin, Sandra (US) Department of Political Science, 405 Hilgard Avenue, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90024-1472, USA.

Heede, Richard (US) Rocky Mountain Institute, 1739 Snowmass Creek Road, Old Snowmass, Colorado 81654, USA.

Helleday, Anna (Swedish) Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Pipers vag 28, S-171 73 Solna, Sweden.

Henry, Brett (US) Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, Q-068, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093, USA.

Hilbrink, Johannes (Dutch) Pastoor Geerdinkstraat 54, 7576 ZH Oldenzaal, The Netherlands.

Huynen, Paul (Belgian) Kerkstraat, 6, B-9360 Buggenhout, Belgium. Johnson, Gerald W. (US) Institute on Global Conflict and Coope­

ration, Q-068, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093, USA.

Kelleher, Catherine M. (US) School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland, Morrill Hall, College Park, Maryland 20742, USA.

Kende, Istvan (Hungarian) Ruszti ut 6, 1022 Budapest, Hungary. Kislov, Alexander (Soviet) Institute of World Economy and Internat­

ional Relations, Profsoyuznaya ul. 23, 117418 Moscow, USSR. Knol, Niek (Dutch), Nassaulaan 47a, Groningen, The Netherlands. Kofanov, Ivan (Soviet), Institute of World Economy and Internation­

al Relations, Profsoyuznaya ul. 23, 117418 Moscow, USSR.

Lists of Course Participants XXlll

Lanzani, Guglielmo (Italian) Dipartimento di Fisica Nucleare e Teorica, Universita di Pavia, Via Bassi 6, 1-27100 Pavia, Italy.

Larkin, Bruce D. (US), Cowell College, University of California, Santa Cruz, California 95064, USA.

Latella, Diego (Italian) Italian National Research Council, Via S. Maria 36, 1-56100 Pisa, Italy.

Lazzizzera, lgnazio (Italian) Dipartimento di Fisica di Particelle Elementari, Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita di Trento, 1-38050 Povo (TN), Italy.

Lenci, Francesco (Italian) Union of Scientists for Disarmament (USPID), Via San Lorenzo 26, 1-56100 Pisa, Italy.

Lepori, Vincenzo (Italian) via Ginestre 3, 1-20089 Rozzano (Milano), Italy.

Lodgaard, Sverre (Norwegian) International Peace Research Insti­tute, Oslo (PRIO), Fuglehauggt. 11, N-0260 Oslo 2, Norway.

Lohs, H. Karlheinz (East German) Akademie der Wissenschaften der DDR, Forschungsstelle fur Chemische Toxikologie, Permoser­strasse 15, DDR-7050 Leipzig, German Democratic Republic.

Magarelli, Clyde (US) Department of Sociology I Anthropology & Geography, William Paterson College of New Jersey, Wayne, New Jersey 07470, USA.

Magdalena, Federico V. (Philippine) University Research Center, Min­danao State University, P.O. Box 5594, Iligan City, Philippines.

Meurling, Janet (British/Swedish) Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Pipers vag 28, S-171 73 Solna, Sweden.

Miggiano, Paolo (Italian) Research Institute for Disarmament, De­velopment and Peace (IRDISP), Via Chiana, 48, 1-00198 Roma, Italy.

Minerva, Daniela (Italian) Sapere, Edizioni Dedalo spa, Corso Trieste 95, 1-00198 Roma, Italy.

Molnar, Laszlo (Hungarian) Hungarian Institute of International Relations, Berc u 23, 1016 Budapest, Hungary.

Monterisi, Giancarlo (Italian) c/o 'Scenario' RAI TV 3, Via L. Settembrini, 38, I-00195 Roma, Italy.

Nakai, Yoko (Japanese) Aoyama Co-op 806, 3-27, Shibuya 4-chome, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo, Japan.

Neild, R. (British) Trinity College, Cambridge CB2 1 TQ, United Kingdom.

Ortolan, Antonello (Italian) V. Giovan Battista Menini 9, I-35100 Padova, Italy.

xxiv Lists of Course Participants

Ottolenghi, Andrea (Italian) Corso Cristofaro Colombo l, I-20144 Milano, Italy.

Painting, Graham (British) 41 Midhope House, Whidborne Street, London WClH 8HH, United Kingdom.

Pascolini, Alessandro (Italian) Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita di Padova, Via F. Marzolo 8, I-35131 Padova, Italy.

Platias, Athanassios (Greek) Program in Science and Technology for International Security, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 20A-011, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, USA.

Reti, Gyorgy (Hungarian) Hungarian Institute for Foreign Affairs, Berc utca 23, 1016 Budapest, Hungary.

Rotfeld, Adam D. (Polish) Institute of International Affairs, ul. Warecka la, 00-950 Warsaw, Poland.

Ryan, John (British) 16 Tindal St., London SW9 6UP, United King­dom.

Santoianni, Francesco (Italian) Via de Gasperi, 7, I-80059 Torre del Greco (Napoli), Italy.

Schaerf, Carlo (Italian) Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita di Roma Tor Vergata, Via Emanuele Carnevale, I-00173 Roma, Italy.

Schrijver, Nico (Dutch) Institute of Social Studies, 251 Badhuisweg, 2597 JR The Hague, The Netherlands.

Schut, Akke (Dutch) Sabangplein 13a, 9715 VC Groningen, The Netherlands.

Schwarzenecker, Eric (East German) Department of Mathematics, Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin, Zentraler Arbeitskreis Friedens­forschung, German Democratic Republic.

Skelly, James (US) Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, Q-060, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093, USA.

Solingen, Etel (Israeli) Center for International and Strategic Affairs, 405 Hilgard Avenue, University of California, Los Angeles, Cali­fornia 90024, USA.

Spieker, Heike (West German) Institute for International Peace­Keeping Law and Humanitarian Law, Postfach 102148, 4630 Bochum, FRG.

Takagi, Takashi (Japanese) 2-12-10 Narita-higashi, Suginami-ku, Tokyo 166, Japan.

Takamaa, Kari T. (Finnish) Vanhaistentie 4 B 19, SF-00420 Helsinki, Finland.

Tolusch, Edith (West German) Sulzgurtel 63, D-5000 Koln, FRG.

Lists of Course Participants XXV

Tromp, Hylke (Dutch) Polemologisch Institut, Van Rijksuniversiteit, Heresingel 13, 9711 ER Groningen, The Netherlands.

Tsipis, Kosta (US) Program in Science and Technology for Internat­ional Security, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 20A-011, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, USA.

Tzeparidze, T. (Soviet) Institute of the USA and Canada, Academy of Sciences of the USSR, Khlebny per. 2/3, Moscow 121814, USSR.

Ullman, Richard H. (US) Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544, USA.

Vala, Tuuli Ursula (Finnish) Vanhaistentie 4 B 19, SF-00420 Hel­sinki, Finland.

Von Muller, Albrecht (West German) Research Program on Stability­Oriented Security and Defense Policies, Max Planck Society, Bahn­hofsplatz 4, D-8130 Starnberg, FRG.

Wall, Connie (US) Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Pipers vag 28, S-171 73 Solna, Sweden.

Westling, Arthur H. (US) International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO), Fugelhaugg. 11, N-0260 Oslo 2, Norway.

Wieckert, Karen (US) Department of Information and Computer Science, University of California, Irvine, California 92717, USA.

Van den Wijngaart, Ruud (Dutch) Department of Science, Tech­nology and Society, Buys Ballot Laboratorium, University of Utrecht, P.O. Box 80.000, 3508 TA Utrecht, The Netherlands.

York, Herbert (US) Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, Q-068, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093, USA.

Zhou, Aliqun (Chinese) Deputy Director & Secretary General, Beij­ing Institute of International Strategic Studies (BliSS), Beijing, China.

Zucconi, Mario (Italian) Via della Minerva, 7, 1-00186 Roma, Italy.

Folgaria, Italy, 4-11 February 1989

Abdel-Moneim, Mohamed (Egyptian) Gallmeyergasse 5, 1190 Vienna, Austria.

Amaldi, Edoardo (Italian) Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita di Roma La Sapienza, P. le Aldo Moro 2, 1-00185 Roma, Italy.

Assar, Khairallah (Syrian) University of Annaba, B.P 466, Annaba, Algeria.

XXVl Lists of Course Participants

Batani, Dimitri (Italian) IFAM-CNR, Via del Giardino 7, 1-56100 Pisa, Italy.

Baus, Wolfgang (German) Ruhr Universitat, Experimentalphysik, Arbeitsgruppe Ill, Postfach 10 21 48, D-4630 Bochum I, FRG.

Blanco, Raimundo Martinez (Venezuelan) Apartado 3344, El trigal 2002, Valencia, Venezuela.

Bologna, Mauro (Italian) cjo USPID Pisa, lstituto di Biofisica, ViaS. Lorenzo 26, 1-56100 Pisa, Italy.

Bragagia, Silvia (Italian) Via Rossini 49, Rosignano Marittimo (Livorno), Italy.

Brusa, Roberto (Italian) Dipartimento di Fisica, Universtia di Trento, Povo (TN) Italy.

Calogero, Francesco (Italian) Dipartimento di Fisica, Universtia di Roma La Sapienza, P. le Aldo Mora 2, 1-00185 Roma, Italy.

Carlton, David (British) Department of International Studies, University ofWarwick, Coventry CV4 7AL. United Kingdom.

Carossini, Paolo (Italian) Via dei Conti 11, 1-50123 Firenze, Italy. Chopra, Apalla (US), 6351 Sattes Drive, Palos Verdes, California

90274, USA. Costa, Sergio (Italian) Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita di Torino,

Corso M. Azeglio 46, 1-10125 Torino, Italy. Dupre, Franco (Italian) Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita di Roma

La Sapienza, P. le Aldo Mora 2, 1-00185 Roma, Italy. Eccher, Fausto (Italian), USPID, cjo Faculty of Science, University

of Trento, Povo (TN), Italy. Elena, Mirco (Italian) cjo IRST, 1-38050 Povo (TN), Italy. Faille, Maxime Xavier (Canadian) Parliamentarians Global Action,

211 East 43rd Street, Suite 1604, New York 10017, USA. Farinella, Paolo (Italian) Dipartimento di Matematica, Via Buonar­

roti, 2, 1-56100, Pisa, Italy. Ferro, Patricia C. (Argentinian) ENEA-CASACCIA, Divisione

FARE-INPRO, S.P. Anguillarese Km 1,300, 00060-S. Maria di Galeria, Italy.

Fusco, Giuseppe (Italian) Via F. Pardi, 18, 1-56100 Pisa, Italy. Giacomello, Giampiero (Italian), cjo Johns Hopkins University,

Bologna Center, Via Belmeloro 11, 1-40126 Bologna, Italy. Jacobs, Saskia (Dutch) Prof. Bromstraat 17, 6525 AN Nigmegen, The

Netherlands. Latella, Diego (Italian) CNUCE, Via S. Maria, 36, 1-56126 Pisa,

Italy.

Lists of Course Participants xxvii

Lazzizzera, lgnazio (Italian) Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita di Trento, 1-38050 Povo (TN), Italy.

Lenci, Francesco (Italian) Istituto Biofisica CNR, ViaS. Lorenzo 26, 1-56100 Pisa, Italy.

Lu Jizong (Chinese) Department of Physics, Shanghai Teachers University, 10 Guilin Road, Shanghai, China.

Maden, Michael D. (US) Department of History and Political Science, Carson-Newman College, Jefferson City, Tennessee 37760, USA.

Nahoczky, Judit (Hungarian) Huszti ut. 21.111.23, 1031 Budapest, Hungary.

Orlandini, Giuseppina (Italian) Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita di Trento, 1-38050 Povo (TN), Italy.

Pascolini, Alessandro (Italian) Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita di Padova, Via F. Marzolo 8, 1-35131 Padova, Italy.

Pasqualetti, Nicola (Italian) c/o USPID Pisa, Istituto di Biofisica, Via S. Lorenzo 26, 1-56100 Pisa, Italy.

Ponzo, Ezio (Italian) Teaching Faculty, Department of Psychology (of Development and Socialization Processes), Universita di Roma, La Sapienza, Via degli Apuli 8, 1-00185 Roma, Italy.

Pospisil, Milan (Czechoslovakian) Peace Research Center CSA V, Vlasska 9, 11000 Praha l, Czechoslovakia.

Schaerf, Carlo (Italian) Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita di Roma Tor Vergata, Via Orazio Raimondo, 1-00173 Roma, Italy.

Silvestri, Stefano (Italian) Istituto Affari Internazionali, 88 Viale Mazzini, 1-00195 Roma, Italy.

Szucs, Peter (Hungarian) Gidofalvy u. 23. Vl/1, 1134 Budapest, Hungary.

Takagi, Takashi (Japanese) 2-12-10 Narita-higashi, Suginami-ku, Tokyo 166, Japan.

Tosi, Paolo (Italian) USPID, Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita di Trento, 1-38050 Povo (TN), Italy.

Vanzo, Luciano (Italian) Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita di Trento, 1-38050 Povo (TN), Italy.

Zadra, Roberto (Italian) Istituto Affari Internazionali, 88 Viale Mazzini, 1-00195 Roma, Italy.