The Arguments

CLIMATE CHANGE SERIES

Eric Jackson ejackson@carbonlesspromise.com

Tactics

Misinformation disputed by all major scientific bodies

Quotes out of context

Misuse of statistics

Assertions that environmentalism = socialism

Assertions that environmentalism = plot to overthrow US government

Assertions that environmentalism = plot by United Nations to take control of the world

Skeptics' disputes of action on climate change are commonly along one or more of the following lines:

1. There is no conclusive evidence that climate change is happening;

Skeptics' disputes of action on climate change are commonly along one or more of the following lines:

2. The changes in measured temperatures are part of the natural cycle;

Skeptics' disputes of action on climate change are commonly along one or more of the following lines:

3. Even if the changes are human induced, the scale is not sufficiently large to make changes beyond sensible "least cost" measures; and

Skeptics' disputes of action on climate change are commonly along one or more of the following lines:

4. The economic impact of making substantial cuts in greenhouse gas emissions on the scale suggested by the IPCC or other groups is too large.

There are several reasons why denial is appealing.

Doubt is an easy product to sell. Climate denial tells us what we all secretly want to hear

The implications of the science are frightening

Science is portrayed as political orthodoxy rather than objective knowledge

In November 2004, leading climate change skeptic Richard Lindzen was quoted saying he'd be willing to bet that the earth's climate will be

cooler in 20 years than it is today.

When British climate researcher James Annan contacted him, however, Lindzen would only

agree to take the bet if Annan offered a 50-to-1 payout

So who are the climate change skeptics?

Approximately 30 individuals have been the most quoted leaders of the climate change

denial movement.

In the USA, there are two organizations that have taken a leadership role in climate change

denial.

Competitive Enterprise Institute

George C. Marshall Institute

So who are the climate change skeptics?

Competitive Enterprise Institute

“CEI is a research and advocacy institute dedicated to the principles of free enterprise

and limited government. We believe that individuals are best helped not by government

intervention, but by making their own choices in a free marketplace."

The Competitive Enterprise Institute produced two 60-second television spots focusing on the “alleged global warming crisis” and the calls by some environmental groups and politicians for reduced energy use. The ads were aired in 14

U.S. cities from May 18 to May 28, 2006.

The ads say that polar ice is actually thickening and that CO2 is a good thing.

ExxonMobil’s funding of CEI was $2,005,000 for the period 1998-2005.

CEI’s other major efforts include support for the tobacco industry, the pesticide industry, and the

pharmaceutical industry

George C. Marshall Institute

GMI’s mission is to “encourage the use of sound science in making public policy about important

issues for which science and technology are major considerations."

The earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice Age, according to a large and

compelling body of evidence from within the field of climate science.

George C. Marshall Institute

ExxonMobil’s funding of GMI was $715,000 for the period 1998-2006.

George C. Marshall Institute

Is Climate Change Human Caused?

Wrong Question?

Human Caused?

Creation Stewardship?

Climate Change Caused by Humans?

True or False?

Wrong Question!

ACTIONYes No

True

False

$$$$$$$$$$

$$$$$$$$$$ CATASTROPHE>20-50’ sea rise

NO BENEFITS

>1 B displaced

>economic, societal, & health systems collapse

RISK MANAGEMENT 101

Monthly Measurements at Manau Loa

Antarctic Vostok ice core; 2.2 miles deep, 420,000 years of temperature and greenhouse

gas data

Atmospheric CO2 Projections

Text

Least Reliable

Most ReliableExpertise

BiasIndividual layperson

Individual professional

Think tanksAdvocacy groups

Support for my beliefs

Truth

PetitionsUniversities

Peer-reviewed science“Science”“Nature”Proceedings

from Nat Acad Science

Statements that contradict normal

bias

Professional organizations

“Global warming is a manageable risk, not an existential crisis, and we should get on with the job of managing it. Conservatives should propose policies that are appropriately optimistic, science-based, and low-cost. This should be an attractive political program: It is.....a reality that Americans usually respond well to the conversion of political issues into technical problems. After all, we’re very good at solving the latter. New Atlantis, Summer 2008

Next in the Climate Change Series....

The Solutions

February 1 at 9 and 10:30 AMFebruary 5 at 7 PM

Eric Jackson ejackson@carbonlesspromise.com