The Argos Freight Modeling Project Presentation to SCAG Modeling Task Force 9/22/04 Genevieve...
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Transcript of The Argos Freight Modeling Project Presentation to SCAG Modeling Task Force 9/22/04 Genevieve...
The Argos Freight Modeling ProjectThe Argos Freight Modeling Project
Presentation to Presentation to
SCAG Modeling Task ForceSCAG Modeling Task Force
9/22/049/22/04Genevieve Giuliano
Peter Gordon
School of Policy, Planning and Development
University of Southern California
SPPD/ISI USC
The Argos Research ProjectThe Argos Research Project
Purpose: Develop an intra-metropolitan freight flow model using state of the art computer science techniquesResearch TeamResearch Team
Jose-Luis AmbiteJose-Luis Ambite Sr. Research Scientist, ISI, USCSr. Research Scientist, ISI, USC
Genevieve GiulianoGenevieve Giuliano Prof. Policy, Planning & Dev., USCProf. Policy, Planning & Dev., USC
Peter GordonPeter Gordon Prof. Pub Policy & Real Estate, USCProf. Pub Policy & Real Estate, USC
Qisheng PanQisheng Pan Assoc. Prof., Urban Planning, TSUAssoc. Prof., Urban Planning, TSU
LanLan WangLanLan Wang PhD student, SPPD, USCPhD student, SPPD, USC
Matthew WeathersMatthew Weathers PhD student, Computer Science, USCPhD student, Computer Science, USC
Paul PenderPaul Pender
Naqeeb AbbasiNaqeeb Abbasi
MPP student, SPPD, USCMPP student, SPPD, USC
MS student, Computer Science, USCMS student, Computer Science, USC
SPPD/ISI USC
Argos Project GoalsArgos Project Goals
1.1. Contribute to knowledge in both information Contribute to knowledge in both information science and social sciencescience and social science
2.2. Address a significant government problemAddress a significant government problem
3.3. Conduct interdisciplinary research that bridges Conduct interdisciplinary research that bridges information science and social scienceinformation science and social science
SPPD/ISI USC
The Intra-metropolitan Freight Flow The Intra-metropolitan Freight Flow Estimation ProblemEstimation Problem
ModelsModels– Goods movement as inter-regional trade problemGoods movement as inter-regional trade problem
Many good models of inter-regional freight flowsMany good models of inter-regional freight flowsHigh level of aggregation in geography, commoditiesHigh level of aggregation in geography, commoditiesDon’t translate easily to intra-metropolitan contextDon’t translate easily to intra-metropolitan context
– State-of-practice transportation planning modelsState-of-practice transportation planning modelsConventional urban models do not take freight directly into Conventional urban models do not take freight directly into accountaccountTraditional 4-step approach difficult to apply to freightTraditional 4-step approach difficult to apply to freight
– Differences in behavioral foundations of travel demandDifferences in behavioral foundations of travel demand– Variation in supply/demand across industry sectorsVariation in supply/demand across industry sectors– Changing industry dynamicsChanging industry dynamics
SPPD/ISI USC
Problems, con’tProblems, con’t
DataData– Extensive data requirementsExtensive data requirements
Flows by mode, commodity, value, origin & destinationFlows by mode, commodity, value, origin & destination– Lack of disaggregate dataLack of disaggregate data
US, state level data generally available; county and smaller unit US, state level data generally available; county and smaller unit limitedlimitedFine geography does not coincide with fine sector dataFine geography does not coincide with fine sector data
– Proprietary dataProprietary dataPrivate firms not required to release dataPrivate firms not required to release dataCustoms data processed by third partiesCustoms data processed by third partiesBlack box natureBlack box nature
– Survey dataSurvey dataInfrequent, costly to updateInfrequent, costly to update
SPPD/ISI USC
An Ideal Model Would…An Ideal Model Would…
……have solid behavioral foundationhave solid behavioral foundation
……be multi-modalbe multi-modal
……handle passenger and freight trip interactionshandle passenger and freight trip interactions
……minimize use of costly dataminimize use of costly data
……be easily updatedbe easily updated
……be transferablebe transferable
SPPD/ISI USC
Our ApproachOur Approach
Use accessible, reliable data sourcesUse accessible, reliable data sources– Available to publicAvailable to public– Regular updatesRegular updates– Transparent computationsTransparent computations– Produced by reliable sourcesProduced by reliable sources
Use economic supply/demand as model foundationUse economic supply/demand as model foundation
Use as much detail as possibleUse as much detail as possible– GeographyGeography– Economic sectorsEconomic sectors
SPPD/ISI USC
Basic Concepts of ModelBasic Concepts of Model
Freight supply/demand in two basic categoriesFreight supply/demand in two basic categories– Intra-regional – supply/demand within SCAG regionIntra-regional – supply/demand within SCAG region– Inter-regional – imports to, exports from, pass-through flowsInter-regional – imports to, exports from, pass-through flows
Intra-regional supply/demand Intra-regional supply/demand – Use IMPLAN I/O model for regionUse IMPLAN I/O model for region– Factor out imports/exportsFactor out imports/exports
Inter-regional supply/demandInter-regional supply/demand– Use import/export data sources (by mode)Use import/export data sources (by mode)– Identify import/export zones/nodesIdentify import/export zones/nodes
Use regional employment as control totalUse regional employment as control total
SPPD/ISI USC
Main Data SourcesMain Data Sources
ItemItem SourceSource CommentsComments
IMPLAN I/OIMPLAN I/O MIG, IncMIG, Inc Commercially available, updated Commercially available, updated annually, reliableannually, reliable
TAZ employment data by TAZ employment data by sectorsector
SCAG 2000 point SCAG 2000 point datadata
Emp totals < IMPLAN; adjust to Emp totals < IMPLAN; adjust to IMPLAN; updated infrequentlyIMPLAN; updated infrequently
Waterborne Waterborne imports/exportsimports/exports
WCUSWCUS Data are available online and Data are available online and updated annuallyupdated annually
Air imports/exportsAir imports/exports LAXLAX Flows by sector only for LAXFlows by sector only for LAX
Truck imports/exportsTruck imports/exports SCAG truck SCAG truck surveyssurveys
““one-shot” surveysone-shot” surveys
Rail imports/exportsRail imports/exports ITMSITMS Data not reliableData not reliable
I-O TABLE 2001
SCAG 2000 EMP
AGGREGATE SECTORS
ATTRACTIONS & PRODUCTIONS
($, JOBS, by TAZ)
AIRPORT DATAWCUS 2000 ITMS
LINKS TO IMPORT, EXPORT NODES
CONVERSION TO COMPATIBLE SECTOR,
$/TON VALUES
COMBINE INTER AND INTRA P& A
AGGREGATE TO REGIONAL TOTALS
GO TO TRANSPORTATION MODEL
INTRA-REGION IMPORTS/EXPORTS
SCAG SURVEY
FREIGHT FLOW MODEL: STEPS IN GENERATING
FREIGHT SUPPLY/DEMAND
CHECK
CHECK
SPPD/ISI USC
SOME DETAILS ON INTRA-METRO PORTION
SCAG 2000 EMP DATA
Employment by sector, TAZ
IMPLAN 2001 I/O
Regional transactions table
Apply sector IO coefficients to
employment data
Check/adjust to sector,
county totals
Generate supply, demand by TAZ, sector in jobs, $$
SPPD/ISI USC
SOME DETAILS ON FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION MODEL
N x N matrix of freight P’s, A’s in tons
Generate O-D matrix using gravity-type distribution model
Convert O-D flows to PCEs
SCAG region transportation network
with equilibrium passenger traffic
assignmentTraffic Assignment of freight PCEs
Equilibrium total traffic assignment
Factor out air, water,
rail
SPPD/ISI USC
Workflow for Freight EstimationWorkflow for Freight Estimation
SPPD/ISI USC
Recent WorkRecent Work
Update data sources to 2000, 2001Update data sources to 2000, 2001
Develop conversion table for sector codes (SIC, Develop conversion table for sector codes (SIC, NAICS, SITC, etc)NAICS, SITC, etc)
Seek better sources for ground imports/exportsSeek better sources for ground imports/exports
Seek better methods for $$/tons/jobs Seek better methods for $$/tons/jobs conversionsconversions
Develop logical internal checksDevelop logical internal checks
To learn more….http://www.isi.edu/~argosTo learn more….http://www.isi.edu/~argos