The Arab Spring - MEVS

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The Arab Spring: What it represents & implications for national security (Data from Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, & Saudi Arabia) Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co-PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong

Transcript of The Arab Spring - MEVS

Page 1: The Arab Spring - MEVS

The Arab Spring: What it represents & implications for national security

(Data from Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, & Saudi Arabia)

Mansoor Moaddel (PI)

Arland Thornton (Co-PI)

Stuart Karabenick

Linda Young-DeMarco

Julie de Jong

Page 2: The Arab Spring - MEVS

The Arab Spring: What it represents & implications for national security

(Data from Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, & Saudi Arabia)

Overview

• The Arab Spring as a departure from extremism: Non-ideological movements for democracy & economic prosperity

• The Internet as an ideologically-neutral organizing tool

• A shift in people’s political and cultural values• A shift in people’s political and cultural values

• Who participated in the Arab Spring?

• Westernization, democracy, equality, & economic prosperity

• Interest in Western technology

• Positive implications for national security:

(1) The Arab Spring’s focus on freedom and democracy counters tendencies toward political violence

(2) Positive attitudes toward Westernization and Western technology provide a basis for constructive dialog with the Arab public

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Data Collection Methods

Face-to-face interviews with nationally-

representative samples

Survey Field Period Sample Size

Survey questionnaire available:http://mevs.org/data/survey-summary/1004

Egypt June – August 2011 3,496

Iraq January – February 2011 3,000

Lebanon March – July 2011 3,034

Saudi Arabia January – February 2011 2,005

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People’s Explanations for the Arab Spring:

Movements for democracy & economic prosperity

59%

51%

40%

50%

60%

70%

% r

ep

ort

ing

ma

in r

ea

son

fo

r th

e A

rab

Sp

rin

g

25%

9%

2% 2% 3%

15%

9% 10% 9%

4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Freedom &

democracy

Economic

equality &

prosperity

Islamic

government

Counter Western

influence

Part of a Western

conspiracy

Arab unity

% r

ep

ort

ing

ma

in r

ea

son

fo

r

Egypt Lebanon

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%Relying on Satellite TV, Internet, or Mobile as Sources

of Information

49%

69%

74%

62%

49%50%

60%

70%

80%

14% 14%

10%

28%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Egypt Iraq Saudi Arabia

Satellite TV Internet Mobile

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Trends in values among Egyptians,

Iraqis, and Saudis

National Identity

Which one of the following best describes you?

1. I am an Egyptian, Iraqi, Saudi, above all

2. I am a Muslim, above all

3. I am an Arab, above all

4. I am a Kurd, above all

5. Other

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Egypt: % Expressing “I am an Egyptian,

Muslim, or Arab, above all”

81%

50%48%50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

8%

1%

50%48%

2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Above all, Egyptian Above all, Muslim Above all, Arab

2001 2011

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Iraq: % Expressing “I am Iraqi, above all”

56%59%

63%

57%

40%

50%

60%

70%

23%

32%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Dec.-2004 Apr.-2006 Mar.-2007 Jul.-2007 Dec.-2008 Jan.-2011

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Saudi Arabia: % Expressing “I Am Saudi, Muslim,

or Arab, above all”

75%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

17%

9%

46% 44%

8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Saudi, above all Muslim, above all Arab, above all

2003 2011

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Trends in values

Religion & Politics

Is it very important, important, somewhat

important, not important, or not at all important

for a good government tofor a good government to

1.Implement only the Shari'a law?

2.Implement only the wishes of the people?

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Egyptian Muslims:

People’s Wishes Versus the Shari’a

48%

64%

40%

50%

60%

70%

31%28%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Shari'a law Laws according to the people's wishes

2001 2011

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Egypt: Which is better in a politician?

Strong religious beliefs or strong commitment to

national interests(2011)

78%

60%

70%

80%

90%

22%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Strong religious beliefs Strong commitment to national interests

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Iraq: % Agree that Iraq would be a better place if

religion and politics are separated

50%

55%

60%

70% 69%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Dec.-2004 Apr.-2006 Oct.-2006 Dec.-2008 Jan.-2011

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Saudi Arabia: Decline in support for the Shari’a

& in trust of religious institutions

69%

84%

60%

70%

80%

90%

31%

46%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Shari'a law very important Trusting religious institutions a great deal

2003 2011

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Egypt: Democracy vs. Strong head of gov’t

(% Strongly agree)

68%

79%

84%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2%

9%5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Democratic political system Strong head of government

2001 2008 2011

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Iraq: % Strongly agree that form of government

is good

59%

55%53%

40%

50%

60%

70%

30%

11%

5%

22%

11%

6%

15%12%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Democracy Islamic government Strong head of

government

Army rule

2004 Apr-06 2011

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Saudi Arabia: Democracy as the best form of

government (% agree)

58%

71%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2003 2011

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Trends in values

Attitudes toward gender equality

1. A wife must always obey her husband.

2. Men make better political leaders

than women do.than women do.

3. University education is more important for

boys than it is for girls.

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Egyptian Muslims: Increase in support for

gender inequality

47%

55%

68%

60%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

16%

21%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Wife must always obey her

husband

Men make better political leaders University education is more

important for boys

2000 2011

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Iraq: Decline in support for gender inequality

(% Strongly agree)

64%

71%

63%

69%

42%

50%

60%

70%

80%

29%25%

33%

8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

A wife should always obey her

husband

Men make better political leaders University education is more

important for boys

2004 2006 2011

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53%

61%

44% 44%

50%

60%

70%

Saudi Arabia: Decline in support for gender

inequality (% Strongly agree)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Men make better political leaders A wife must always obey her husband

2003 2011

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Egyptian Muslims: Correlates of protest

participations (Correlation coefficients)

.14

.25

.15

.17.16

.25

.11

.20

.13

.18

.11

.15

.20

.25

.30

.11 .11

.00

.05

.10

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Egypt: Increased Westernization is tied to

increased gender equality, democracy, and

overall standard of living

90%93% 95%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Equality between women & men Democracy The overall standard of living

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COUNTRY Would Be Better with Technology of

the West (2011)

85%89%

84%

90%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Egypt Iraq Lebanon Saudi Arabia

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Summary

1. Increase in national identity

2. Decline in support for the shari’a

3. Increase in gender equality (except in Egypt)

4. Positive implications for national security:

(1) The Arab Spring’s focus on

freedom and democracy freedom and democracy

counters tendencies toward

political violence

(2) Positive attitudes toward

Westernization and Western

technology provide a basis

for constructive dialog with the

Arab public