The appliance of science – a policy perspective NERC Ideation Workshop, 30 March 2015 David...
-
Upload
gerard-hawkins -
Category
Documents
-
view
215 -
download
0
Transcript of The appliance of science – a policy perspective NERC Ideation Workshop, 30 March 2015 David...
The appliance of science – a policy perspective
NERC Ideation Workshop, 30 March 2015
David WarrilowHead of ScienceDECC
Questions, science and policy
“The important thing is not to stop questioning.
Curiosity has its own reason for existing.” Albert Einstein
“There does not exist a category of science to which one can give the name applied science. There are science and the applications of science, bound together as the fruit of the tree which bears it.”
Louis Pasteur
Policy challenge of rapid change
Total Population of the world by projection variantUN 2011
Source:Future Earth
Challenge of a changing climate
Is climate change happening?
Are humans responsible?
How will it change in the future?
How will that affect us?
IPCC WG1 5th Assessment Report 2013
Broad policy questions
What are the risks associated with climate and other environmental changes?
What are the causes?
How will these risks change in the future?
What are the strategic options to reduce these risks?
Can we deal with the problem at source (mitigation)?
Can we reduce the effects (adaptation)?
Who needs to act?
What are the costs?
What specific options need to be developed?
Are there side effects?
Who are the winners and losers?
How do we convince others to accept the need for change?
Does climate change cause extremes?
Is the extreme event we experience due to climate change?
Will extremes be worse in the future?
How can we adapt to reduce risks
Challenges of Adaptation
Prediction uncertainty UKCP09
UK Adaptation Programme (2013)
“A society which makes timely, far-sighted and well-informed decisionsto address the risks and opportunities posedby a changing climate”
Building the UK’s resilience to climate change is an economic, social and environmental challenge that cuts across every sector of society.
Climate Change and Energy
The Challenge of Mitigation.
11
UK Commitments to reduce GHG emissions (CCC)
Budget Carbon budget level
% reduction below base year
1st Carbon budget (2008-12) 3,018 MtCO2e 23%
2nd Carbon budget (2013-17) 2,782 MtCO2e 29%
3rd Carbon budget (2018-22) 2,544 MtCO2e 35% by 2020
4th Carbon budget (2023-27) 1,950 MtCO2e 50% by 2025
Long term aim: 80% reduction by 2050
Progress on budget
The carbon plan 2011
Sector options: • Power generation,• Industry • Transport, • Energy efficiency• Waste• Agriculture
Emissions Trading
2050 Calculator – analysing options
Excel Spreadsheet
Web ToolMy2050
Technical expert stakeholders
and policy-makers
Technical expert stakeholders
and well-informed public
Educational tool and initial
engagement for members of the
public
Product
Audience
Complexity
2050 Analysis
Excel Spreadsheet
Web ToolMy2050
Technical expert stakeholders
and policy-makers
Technical expert stakeholders
and well-informed public
Educational tool and initial
engagement for members of the
public
Product
Audience
Complexity
2050 Analysis
15
Innovation is essential
Need for a global agreement
“ Climate change is a fact. And when our children’s children look us in the eye and ask if we did all we could to leave them a safer, more stable world, with new sources of energy, I want us to be able to say yes, we did.” Barack Obama, US President, January 2014
“ Don’t get left behind. Don’t be on the losing side of history… Let us take advantage of the opportunities presented by climate action and lay the foundations for a more prosperous and secure future for all.” Ban Ki-moon, UN Secretary General, May 2014
Paris 2015 Securing our prosperity through a global climate change agreement
An alternative view…
Conclusions
Time of unprecedented change
Need to manage risks
Use opportunities to transform the way we do things
Complex interaction of policies and politics
Win the communications battle
Essential to innovate
International agreement is key
Time is short.