The “For the People” Agenda: An Asset for Democrats in 2018 · The “For the People” Agenda:...

The “For the People” Agenda: An Asset for Democrats in 2018

Key findings from a nationwide survey among 1,000 likely mid-term votersConducted August 30 to September 5, 2018, for the Center for American Progress Action Fund

The “For the People” Agenda: An Asset for Democrats in 2018 September 2018 Hart Research for the Center for American Progress Action Fund

The current state of play: Democrats lead in a generic congressional race as undecided voters move away from Trump.

2

31% 22%

17%

15%

15%

48%

37%

Vote for Democrat

Vote for Republican

Undecided

Definitely Definitely

Undecided voters:• 53% Trump voters, 35% Clinton

voters• 44% approve of Trump, 56%

disapprove of Trump

In the November election for representative in the U.S. Congress for your district, are you more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?

+11


The current state of play: Democrats also have a voting enthusiasm advantage—driven by liberal and white Democrats.

3

Proportions saying they are extremely enthusiastic and motivated to vote in this year’s elections for Congress and other offices

62%

48%

60%

74%

60%

77%

60%

71%

65%

72%

64%

Republicans

Independents

Democrats of color

White Democrats

Non-liberal Democrats

Liberal Democrats

Trump voters

Clinton voters

Vote Republican

Vote Democrat

All voters


Each party is seen as having a clear agenda by its own supporters, not others.

4

51%

76%

27%30%

49%

24%

73% 70%

All voters Vote Democrat VoteRepublican

Undecided

Yes, Democrats have a clear agenda

No, Democrats do not have a clear agenda

48%

35%

71%

33%

52%

65%

29%

67%

All voters Vote Democrat VoteRepublican

Undecided

Yes, Republicans have a clear agenda

No, Republicans do not have a clear agenda

Do you think Republicans/Democrats have a clear agenda of what they want to do if they win the majority in Congress?


Healthcare is seen as the leading edge of the Democratic agenda.

5

What do you think the agenda of the Democrats will be if they win the majority in Congress?

Volunteered impressions of what the Democratic agenda will be if they win the majority in Congress.

Healthcare, protect Obamacare 25%

Immigration, will work on reforming immigration laws

14%

Impeach Trump 9%

Reverse everything Trump has done, fix all the bad deals Trump has made

8%

Improve the economy 7%


And affordable healthcare is the most frequently volunteeredanswer on what a party should stand for to be “For the People.”

6

If a political party wanted to show that it is truly For the People, what would it do or stand for?

Volunteered impressions of what a political party that is FOR THE PEOPLE will focus on.

All votersVote

DemocratVote

RepublicanUndecided

Healthcare, affordable healthcare 26% 32% 21% 19%

Concern for the people, all people, people of color

21% 21% 20% 26%

Lower taxes, cut taxes for the middle class

16% 12% 24% 10%

Jobs/employment 12% 7% 17% 14%

Education, better schools 10% 13% 6% 12%


In an election about who is “For the People,” Democrats have a clear advantage.

7

Which party do you think is more likely to be FOR THE PEOPLE?

34%

19%

67%

50%

7% 4%

17%

12%

24%

4%

26%

24%

13%

18%

8%

18%

52%

All voters Vote Democrat Vote Republican Undecided

51%

91%

31%

1%6%

76%

31%

17%

▪ Democrats—much more▪ Democrats—a little more▪ Republicans—a little more▪ Republicans—much more▪ Neither


The Republicans’ “Better Off Now” agenda does little to broaden the GOP’s appeal.

8

24%29%

3%

55% 56%

11% 10%

17% 11%

8%

16%

27%

4%

21%15%

19% 18%11%

43%


41%

11%

40%

71%

83%

6%

32%

25%

What is your reaction to hearing that Republicans have a BETTER OFF NOW agenda that is focused on continuing to work with President Trump to improve America’s economy by lowering taxes and reducing job-killing regulations?

▪ Very favorable▪ Somewhat favorable▪ Somewhat unfavorable▪ Very unfavorable▪ Neutral


The Democrats’ “For the People” agenda solidifies Democratic voters and appeals to others.

9

38%

13%

64%

11%

33%

19%

5%

23%

10%

23%

18%

21%

34%

10%

16%

9%17%

32%


61%

88%

23%

3%

29%

54% 53%

15%

What is your reaction to hearing that the Democrats have a FOR THE PEOPLE agenda that is focused on lowering healthcare costs, raising wages, and cleaning up corruption?



The appeal of a “For the People” Democratic candidate reaches beyond the Democratic base.

10

36%

8%

65%

5%

18% 21%

3%

32%

7%

27%

32%11%

47%

7%

17%

4%

34%

22%


68%

93%

15%

4%

37%29%

68%

10%

If the Democratic candidate for Congress supports a FOR THE PEOPLE agenda that is focused on lowering healthcare costs, raising wages, and cleaning upcorruption, would this make you much more favorable, somewhat more favorable, somewhat less favorable, or much less favorable to this Democratic candidate?


24% of voters find a “For the People” Democratic candidate appealing but are not currently voting Democratic.


Proposals that crack down on drug and health insurance companies have strong appeal.

11

Proportions favorable toward each proposal Democrats have made to lower healthcare costs.

37%

44%

50%

54%

61%

63%

24%

27%

26%

26%

22%

23%

Very favorable Somewhat favorable

Stop drug companies from dramatically increasing prices and require them to release

data to justify price increases

Strengthen laws that stop insurance companies from charging higher premiums to people with

preexisting conditions, women, and age 50+

Give Medicare authority to negotiate directly with drug companies for lowest drug prices

Eliminate the tax breaks that subsidize the television advertising of big drug companies

Allow Americans to import lower-cost prescription drugs from Canada

Create competition for private insurance by offering a gov’t-sponsored public option for

health insurance

66%

63%

55%

48%

41%

31%

57%

56%

42%

45%

33%

25%

FTP Targets Undecided

VERY Favorable

86%

83%

80%

76%

71%

61%


Equal pay for women is one of several strong proposals to address the need for higher wages.

12

Proportions favorable toward each proposal Democrats have made to raise wages.

41%

44%

55%

53%

51%

49%

21%

29%

22%

25%

29%

32%

Very favorable Somewhat favorable

Strengthen laws requiring equal pay for women, like prohibiting employers from paying someone

less for a job based on salary history

Restore and strengthen overtime protections by requiring employers to pay overtime to

employees making less than $50K a year

Create good-paying jobs through a commitment to building, repairing, and modernizing

American’s bridges, tunnels, and transit

Expand job-training and apprenticeship programs and ensure all Americans can access

these programs when they need them

Rebuild power/bargaining for workers by giving them a real seat at the table so they can

negotiate for higher wages on equal footing with their employers

Raise national minimum wage to $15 and index to cost of living

50%

48%

52%

56%

41%

34%

43%

43%

44%

51%

33%

29%


VERY Favorable

81%

80%

78%

77%

73%

62%

Women 61%


Banning taxpayer funding of harassment settlements is one of several strong proposals on corruption.

13

Proportions favorable toward each proposal Democrats have made to address corruption.

48%

54%

51%

54%

56%

58%

71%

15%

18%

22%

23%

21%

19%

14%

Very favorable Somewhat favorableBan use of taxpayer money to pay for sexual

harassment settlements in lawsuits against members of Congress

Require dark money orgs that spend unlimited amounts influencing elections to identify the

individuals/corps that provide their funding

Create an independent watchdog to investigate ethics violations rather than having members of

Congress police themselves

Ban lobbyists from raising money for candidates, to reduce the ability of lobbyists to

buy access and influence

Ban members of Congress from becoming lobbyists after leaving office

Require candidates for federal office, including Congress, to disclose their tax returns

Have Congress conduct more oversight of Trump administration, to make sure Congress

serves as a check and balance

73%

57%

56%

53%

51%

54%

66%

52%

52%

50%

46%

49%


40% 43%

VERY Favorable

85%

77%

77%

77%

73%

72%

63%


And across audiences, healthcare tops the list of “For the People” for priorities.

14

Lowering the cost of

healthcare

Cleaning up corruption

Raising wages

All voters 49% 33% 18%

Democratic voters 47% 30% 23%

Republican voters 49% 37% 14%

Undecided voters 54% 32% 14%

FTP targets 56% 27% 17%

Liberal Democrats 52% 29% 19%

Non-liberal Democrats 46% 29% 25%

White Democrats 56% 28% 16%

Democrats of color 39% 30% 31%

Independents 44% 39% 17%

Republicans 49% 36% 15%

Which will be the most important to you when it comes time to vote?


And when all 18 proposals are stacked against each other, the healthcare proposals are highlighted as key priorities.

15

Proportions who choose each in their top five most important priorities.

27%

29%

30%

31%

33%

34%

36%

37%

42%Stop drug companies from

dramatically increasing prices

Strengthen laws that stop insurance companies from charging higher premiums

Create jobs through modernizing infrastructure

Ban use of taxpayer money for sexual harassment settlements

Give Medicare authority to negotiate for low drug prices

Raise national minimum wage to $15 and index to cost of living

54% undecided voters, 49% FTP targets

42% Millennials

50% Age 65+

45% African American, 44% Hispanic, 41% Millennials

Expand job training and apprenticeship programs and ensure access for all Americans

Strengthen laws requiring equal pay for women

Create an independent watchdog to investigate ethical violations by members of Congress

46% women 50+, postgrad

38% African American, 47% Hispanic, 37% Millennials

39% women under 50, 37% African Americans


Democrats, Republicans, and undecided voters agree and disagree on various priorities.

16

Stop drug companies from dramatically increasing prices



Allow Americans to import lower-cost drugs from Canada

Eliminate tax breaks for the TV ads of drug companies

Offer a public option for health insurance for all ages


Require dark money orgs to disclose what they fund

Ban members of Congress from becoming lobbyists

Ban lobbyists from raising money for candidates

Have Congress conduct more oversight of Trump admin

Create an independent watchdog to investigate ethics violations


Rebuild power/bargaining for workers

Restore and strengthen overtime protections


Expand job-training and apprenticeship programs

Raise national minimum wage to $15

Require candidates to disclose their tax returns

Democrat voters Republican voters Undecided

Proportions choosing each in their top five most important priorities.

36% 46% 54%

34%37%

38%

30% 34% 35%

19%25%

30%

25%16%

15%

18% 24% 27%

34% 35% 41%

21% 30% 39%

32%30%

24%

20% 26% 36%

19%20%20%

16% 19%17%

23%44%

46%

24%26%

29%

5%15%

39%

25%

24%

13% 18%

26%

20%

15%

11%

14%

20%

22%

18%


With the base, liberal and non-liberal Democrats differ in their priorities.

17

Proportions choosing each in their top five most important priorities.

Liberal Democrats Non-liberal Democrats

Stop drug companies from dramatically increasing prices



Allow Americans to import lower-cost drugs from Canada

Eliminate tax breaks for the TV ads of drug companies

Offer a public option for health insurance for all ages


Require dark money orgs to disclose what they fund

Ban members of Congress from becoming lobbyists

Ban lobbyists from raising money for candidates

Have Congress conduct more oversight of Trump admin

Create an independent watchdog to investigate ethics violations


Rebuild power/bargaining for workers

Restore and strengthen overtime protections


Expand job-training and apprenticeship programs

Raise national minimum wage to $15

Require candidates to disclose their tax returns

35%

16% 21%

18% 19%

19% 29%

22% 29%

35% 42%

19% 27%

13% 17%

13%

20%

11%

11%

39%35%

30% 36%

38% 41%

23% 39%

19% 21%

18% 20%

18% 28%

35% 42%

35%28%

39% -4

+7

-7

+2

-2

+10

+6

+3

-16

+5

-5

+1

-10

-7

+7

+8

-4

-2

+9

Gap: Lib –Non-lib


31%22%

35%

17%

17%

15%

18%

14%

15% 16%

Initial vote Informed vote

▪ Definitely for Democrat▪ Probably/leaning for Democrat▪ Probably/leaning for Republican▪ Definitely for Republican▪ Completely undecided

+11 +22

After voters learn more about “For the People” policies, Democrats extend their lead by 11 points.

18

In the November election for representative in the U.S. Congress for your district, are you more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?

Initial Dem Advantage

Final Dem Advantage

Change

Liberal Democrats +97 +97 -

Non-liberal Democrats +78 +86 +8

Independents +10 +29 +19

Republicans -85 -69 +16

Men/18-49 +17 +27 +10

Men/50+ -15 -3 +12

Women/18-49 +28 +38 +10

Women/50+ +14 +24 +10

White -3 +8 +11

African American +70 +74 +4

Hispanic +33 +49 +16

Men/non-college -25 -9 +16

Men/college + +4 +11 +7

Women/non-college -10 +3 +13

Women/college + +21 +31 +10

Trump voters/not strong approve

-45 -19 +26

48%

37%

53%

31%


And those who intend to vote for Democrats become more enthusiastic about voting.

19

Proportions saying they are extremely enthusiastic and motivated to vote in this year’s elections for Congress and other offices

Age 65+

Age 50-64

Age 35-49

Age 18-34

Republicans

Independents

Democrats of color

White Democrats

Non-liberal Democrats

Liberal Democrats

Undecided voters

Republican voters

Democrat voters

Clinton voters

Trump voters

All votersInitial Informed

Enthusiasm

63%

35%35%

48%

63%

55%

60%57%

66%64%

78%77%

61%

62%

48%

60% 60%

71% 74%

70%60%

78%74%

68%60%

81%77%

64% 65%

72% 78%

Change

67%

-

+4

+3

+6

-1

-

+8

+4

+10

+4

+1

-

+3

+6

+1

+2


No longer taking corporate or lobbyist money is more important than accessibility to showing the Democratic Party is truly for the people.

20

Much More Likely Somewhat More Likely Not More Likely

If Democrats in Congress stop accepting money from lobbyists

49% 31% 20%

If Democrats in Congress refuse to accept any money from corporate PACs

47% 31% 22%

If Democrats in Congress hold at least one town hall meeting with their constituents every month

35% 33% 32%

If Democrats in Congress make their daily schedules public so people can know who they are meeting with

34% 34% 32%

Does each step Democrats in Congress might take make you much more likely, somewhat more likely, or not more likely to think that Democrats are truly for the people?


Most voters, including most of those intending to vote Democratic,are not ready for Democrats to begin impeachment if they win inNovember.

21

Which of the following statements about impeachment comes closest to your own point of view?

26%

41%

33%46%

14%

40% 45%

7%

48% 45%

26%

29%

All VotersIntended

Democratic Voters Liberal DemocratsNon-liberal Democrats

▪ If the Democrats win the majority, they should begin impeachment proceedings▪ If the Democrats win the majority, they should not begin impeachment proceedings▪ It is too early to say, Democrats need to wait for Mueller to complete his investigation

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