The AI Revolution_ Road to Superintelligence - Wait but Why
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4/14/2015 TheAIRevolution:RoadtoSuperintelligenceWaitButWhy
http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificialintelligencerevolution1.html 1/26
ByTimUrban
TheAIRevolution:TheRoadtoSuperintelligence
Note:ThereasonthisposttookthreeweekstofinishisthatasIdugintoresearchonArtificialIntelligence,IcouldnotbelievewhatIwasreading.IthitmeprettyquicklythatwhatshappeningintheworldofAIisnotjustanimportanttopic,butbyfarTHEmostimportanttopicforourfuture.SoIwantedtolearnasmuchasIcouldaboutit,andonceIdidthat,IwantedtomakesureIwroteapostthatreallyexplainedthiswholesituationandwhyitmatterssomuch.Notshockingly,thatbecameoutrageouslylong,soIbrokeitintotwoparts.ThisisPart1Part2ishere.
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WeareontheedgeofchangecomparabletotheriseofhumanlifeonEarth.VernorVinge
Whatdoesitfeelliketostandhere?
Itseemslikeaprettyintenseplacetobestandingbutthenyouhavetoremembersomethingaboutwhatitsliketostandonatimegraph:youcantseewhatstoyourright.Sohereshowitactuallyfeelstostandthere:
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4/14/2015 TheAIRevolution:RoadtoSuperintelligenceWaitButWhy
http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificialintelligencerevolution1.html 2/26
Whichprobablyfeelsprettynormal
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TheFarFutureComingSoonImaginetakingatimemachinebackto1750atimewhentheworldwasinapermanentpoweroutage,long-distancecommunicationmeanteitheryellingloudlyorfiringacannonintheair,andalltransportationranonhay.Whenyougetthere,youretrieveadude,bringhimto2015,andthenwalkhimaroundandwatchhimreacttoeverything.Itsimpossibleforustounderstandwhatitwouldbelikeforhimtoseeshinycapsulesracingbyonahighway,talktopeoplewhohadbeenontheothersideoftheoceanearlierintheday,watchsportsthatwerebeingplayed1,000milesaway,hearamusicalperformancethathappened50yearsago,andplaywithmymagicalwizardrectanglethathecouldusetocaptureareal-lifeimageorrecordalivingmoment,generateamapwithaparanormalmovingbluedotthatshowshimwhereheis,lookatsomeonesfaceandchatwiththemeventhoughtheyreontheothersideofthecountry,andworldsofotherinconceivablesorcery.ThisisallbeforeyoushowhimtheinternetorexplainthingsliketheInternationalSpaceStation,theLargeHadronCollider,nuclearweapons,orgeneralrelativity.
Thisexperienceforhimwouldntbesurprisingorshockingorevenmind-blowingthosewordsarentbigenough.Hemightactuallydie.
Butherestheinterestingthingifhethenwentbackto1750andgotjealousthatwegottoseehisreactionanddecidedhewantedtotrythesamething,hedtakethetimemachineandgobackthesamedistance,getsomeonefromaroundtheyear1500,bringhimto1750,andshowhimeverything.Andthe1500guywouldbeshockedbyalotofthingsbuthewouldntdie.Itwouldbefarlessofaninsaneexperienceforhim,becausewhile1500and1750wereverydifferent,theyweremuchlessdifferentthan1750to2015.The1500guywouldlearnsomemind-bendingshitaboutspaceandphysics,hedbeimpressedwithhowcommittedEuropeturnedouttobewiththatnewimperialismfad,andhedhavetodosomemajorrevisionsofhisworldmapconception.Butwatchingeverydaylifegobyin1750transportation,communication,etc.definitelywouldntmakehimdie.
No,inorderforthe1750guytohaveasmuchfunaswehadwithhim,hedhavetogomuchfartherbackmaybeallthewaybacktoabout12,000BC,beforetheFirstAgriculturalRevolutiongaverisetothefirstcitiesandtotheconceptofcivilization.Ifsomeonefromapurelyhunter-gathererworldfromatimewhenhumanswere,moreorless,justanotheranimalspeciessawthevasthumanempiresof1750withtheirtoweringchurches,theirocean-crossingships,theirconceptofbeinginside,andtheirenormousmountainofcollective,accumulatedhumanknowledgeanddiscoveryhedlikelydie.
Andthenwhatif,afterdying,hegotjealousandwantedtodothesamething.Ifhewentback12,000yearsto24,000BCandgotaguyandbroughthimto12,000BC,hedshowtheguyeverythingandtheguywouldbelike,Okaywhatsyourpointwhocares.Forthe12,000BCguytohavethesamefun,hedhavetogobackover100,000yearsandgetsomeonehecouldshowfireandlanguagetoforthefirsttime.
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4/14/2015 TheAIRevolution:RoadtoSuperintelligenceWaitButWhy
http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificialintelligencerevolution1.html 3/26
(DPU)hasbeenachieved.SoaDPUtookover100,000yearsinhunter-gatherertimes,butatthepost-AgriculturalRevolutionrate,itonlytookabout12,000years.Thepost-IndustrialRevolutionworldhasmovedsoquicklythata1750persononlyneedstogoforwardacouplehundredyearsforaDPUtohavehappened.
ThispatternhumanprogressmovingquickerandquickerastimegoesoniswhatfuturistRayKurzweilcallshumanhistorysLawofAcceleratingReturns.Thishappensbecausemoreadvancedsocietieshavetheabilitytoprogressatafasterratethanlessadvancedsocietiesbecausetheyremoreadvanced.19thcenturyhumanityknewmoreandhadbettertechnologythan15thcenturyhumanity,soitsnosurprisethathumanitymadefarmoreadvancesinthe19thcenturythaninthe15thcentury15thcenturyhumanitywasnomatchfor19thcenturyhumanity.
Thisworksonsmallerscalestoo.ThemovieBacktotheFuturecameoutin1985,andthepasttookplacein1955.Inthemovie,whenMichaelJ.Foxwentbackto1955,hewascaughtoff-guardbythenewnessofTVs,thepricesofsoda,thelackofloveforshrillelectricguitar,andthevariationinslang.Itwasadifferentworld,yesbutifthemovieweremadetodayandthepasttookplacein1985,themoviecouldhavehadmuchmorefunwithmuchbiggerdifferences.Thecharacterwouldbeinatimebeforepersonalcomputers,internet,orcellphonestodaysMartyMcFly,ateenagerborninthelate90s,wouldbemuchmoreoutofplacein1985thanthemoviesMartyMcFlywasin1955.
ThisisforthesamereasonwejustdiscussedtheLawofAcceleratingReturns.Theaveragerateofadvancementbetween1985and2015washigherthantheratebetween1955and1985becausetheformerwasamoreadvancedworldsomuchmorechangehappenedinthemostrecent30yearsthanintheprior30.
Soadvancesaregettingbiggerandbiggerandhappeningmoreandmorequickly.Thissuggestssomeprettyintensethingsaboutourfuture,right?
Kurzweilsuggeststhattheprogressoftheentire20thcenturywouldhavebeenachievedinonly20yearsattherateofadvancementintheyear2000inotherwords,by2000,therateofprogresswasfivetimesfasterthantheaveragerateofprogressduringthe20thcentury.Hebelievesanother20thcenturysworthofprogresshappenedbetween2000and2014andthatanother20thcenturysworthofprogresswillhappenby2021,inonlysevenyears.Acoupledecadeslater,hebelievesa20thcenturysworthofprogresswillhappenmultipletimesinthesameyear,andevenlater,inlessthanonemonth.Allinall,becauseoftheLawofAcceleratingReturns,Kurzweilbelievesthatthe21stcenturywillachieve1,000timestheprogressofthe20thcentury.
IfKurzweilandotherswhoagreewithhimarecorrect,thenwemaybeasblownawayby2030asour1750guywasby2015i.e.thenextDPUmightonlytakeacoupledecadesandtheworldin2050mightbesovastlydifferentthantodaysworldthatwewouldbarelyrecognizeit.
Thisisntsciencefiction.ItswhatmanyscientistssmarterandmoreknowledgeablethanyouorIfirmlybelieveandifyoulookathistory,itswhatweshouldlogicallypredict.
Sothenwhy,whenyouhearmesaysomethingliketheworld35yearsfromnowmightbetotallyunrecognizable,areyouthinking,Cool.butnahhhhhhh?Threereasonswereskepticalofoutlandishforecastsofthefuture:
1)Whenitcomestohistory,wethinkinstraightlines.Whenweimaginetheprogressofthenext30years,welookbacktotheprogressoftheprevious30asanindicatorofhowmuchwilllikelyhappen.Whenwethinkabouttheextenttowhichtheworldwillchangeinthe21stcentury,wejusttakethe20thcenturyprogressandaddittotheyear2000.Thiswasthesamemistakeour1750guymadewhenhegotsomeonefrom1500andexpectedtoblowhismindasmuchashisownwasblowngoingthesamedistanceahead.Itsmostintuitiveforustothinklinearly,whenweshouldbethinkingexponentially.Ifsomeoneisbeingmorecleveraboutit,theymightpredicttheadvancesofthenext30yearsnotbylookingattheprevious30years,butbytakingthecurrentrateofprogressandjudgingbasedonthat.Theydbemoreaccurate,butstillwayoff.Inordertothinkaboutthefuturecorrectly,youneedtoimaginethingsmovingatamuchfasterratethantheyremovingnow.
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2)Thetrajectoryofveryrecenthistoryoftentellsadistortedstory.First,evenasteepexponentialcurveseemslinearwhenyouonlylookatatinysliceofit,thesamewayifyoulookatalittlesegmentofahugecircleupclose,itlooksalmostlikeastraightline.Second,exponentialgrowthisnttotallysmoothanduniform.KurzweilexplainsthatprogresshappensinS-curves:
AnSiscreatedbythewaveofprogresswhenanewparadigmsweepstheworld.Thecurvegoesthroughthreephases:
1.Slowgrowth(theearlyphaseofexponentialgrowth)2.Rapidgrowth(thelate,explosivephaseofexponentialgrowth)3.Alevelingoffastheparticularparadigmmatures
Ifyoulookonlyatveryrecenthistory,thepartoftheS-curveyoureonatthemomentcanobscureyourperceptionofhowfastthingsareadvancing.Thechunkoftimebetween1995and2007sawtheexplosionoftheinternet,theintroductionofMicrosoft,Google,andFacebookintothepublicconsciousness,thebirthofsocialnetworking,andtheintroductionofcellphonesandthensmartphones.ThatwasPhase2:thegrowthspurtpartoftheS.But2008to2015hasbeenlessgroundbreaking,atleastonthetechnologicalfront.Someonethinkingaboutthefuturetodaymightexaminethelastfewyearstogaugethecurrentrateofadvancement,butthatsmissingthebiggerpicture.Infact,anew,hugePhase2growthspurtmightbebrewingrightnow.
3)Ourownexperiencemakesusstubbornoldmenaboutthefuture.Webaseourideasabouttheworldonourpersonalexperience,andthatexperiencehasingrainedtherateofgrowthoftherecentpastinourheadsasthewaythingshappen.Werealsolimitedbyourimagination,whichtakesourexperienceandusesittoconjurefuturepredictionsbutoften,whatweknowsimplydoesntgiveusthetoolstothinkaccuratelyaboutthefuture. Whenwehearapredictionaboutthefuturethat
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contradictsourexperience-basednotionofhowthingswork,ourinstinctisthatthepredictionmustbenaive.IfItellyou,laterinthispost,thatyoumaylivetobe150,or250,ornotdieatall,yourinstinctwillbe,ThatsstupidiftheresonethingIknowfromhistory,itsthateverybodydies.Andyes,nooneinthepasthasnotdied.Butnooneflewairplanesbeforeairplaneswereinventedeither.
Sowhilenahhhhhmightfeelrightasyoureadthispost,itsprobablyactuallywrong.Thefactis,ifwerebeingtrulylogicalandexpectinghistoricalpatternstocontinue,weshouldconcludethatmuch,much,muchmoreshouldchangeinthecomingdecadesthanweintuitivelyexpect.Logicalsosuggeststhatifthemostadvancedspeciesonaplanetkeepsmakinglargerandlargerleapsforwardatanever-fasterrate,atsomepoint,theyllmakealeapsogreatthatitcompletelyalterslifeastheyknowitandtheperceptiontheyhaveofwhatitmeanstobeahumankindoflikehowevolutionkeptmakinggreatleapstowardintelligenceuntilfinallyitmadesuchalargeleaptothehumanbeingthatitcompletelyalteredwhatitmeantforanycreaturetoliveonplanetEarth.Andifyouspendsometimereadingaboutwhatsgoingontodayinscienceandtechnology,youstarttoseealotofsignsquietlyhintingthatlifeaswecurrentlyknowitcannotwithstandtheleapthatscomingnext.
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TheRoadtoSuperintelligenceWhatIsAI?Ifyourelikeme,youusedtothinkArtificialIntelligencewasasillysci-ficoncept,butlatelyyouvebeenhearingitmentionedbyseriouspeople,andyoudontreallyquitegetit.
TherearethreereasonsalotofpeopleareconfusedaboutthetermAI:
1)WeassociateAIwithmovies.StarWars.Terminator.2001:ASpaceOdyssey.EventheJetsons.Andthosearefiction,asaretherobotcharacters.SoitmakesAIsoundalittlefictionaltous.
2)AIisabroadtopic.Itrangesfromyourphonescalculatortoself-drivingcarstosomethinginthefuturethatmightchangetheworlddramatically.AIreferstoallofthesethings,whichisconfusing.
3)WeuseAIallthetimeinourdailylives,butweoftendontrealizeitsAI.JohnMcCarthy,whocoinedthetermArtificialIntelligencein1956,complainedthatassoonasitworks,noonecallsitAIanymore. Becauseofthisphenomenon,AIoftensoundslikeamythicalfuturepredictionmorethanareality.Atthesametime,itmakesitsoundlikeapopconceptfromthepastthatnevercametofruition.RayKurzweilsayshehearspeoplesaythatAIwitheredinthe1980s,whichhecomparestoinsistingthattheInternetdiedinthedot-combustoftheearly2000s.
Soletsclearthingsup.First,stopthinkingofrobots.ArobotisacontainerforAI,sometimesmimickingthehumanform,sometimesnotbuttheAIitselfisthecomputerinsidetherobot.AIisthebrain,andtherobotisitsbodyifitevenhasabody.Forexample,thesoftwareanddatabehindSiriisAI,thewomansvoicewehearisapersonificationofthatAI,andtheresnorobotinvolvedatall.
Secondly,youveprobablyheardthetermsingularityortechnologicalsingularity.Thistermhasbeenusedinmathtodescribeanasymptote-likesituationwherenormalrulesnolongerapply.Itsbeenusedinphysicstodescribeaphenomenonlikeaninfinitelysmall,denseblackholeorthepointwewereallsquishedintorightbeforetheBigBang.Again,situationswheretheusualrulesdontapply.In1993,VernorVingewroteafamousessayinwhichheappliedthetermtothemomentinthefuturewhenourtechnologysintelligenceexceedsourownamomentforhimwhenlifeasweknowitwillbeforeverchangedandnormalruleswillnolongerapply.RayKurzweilthenmuddledthingsabitbydefiningthesingularityasthetimewhentheLawofAcceleratingReturnshasreachedsuchanextremepacethattechnologicalprogressishappeningataseemingly-infinitepace,andafterwhichwellbelivinginawholenewworld.IfoundthatmanyoftodaysAIthinkershavestoppedusingtheterm,anditsconfusinganyway,soIwontuseitmuchhere(eventhoughwellbefocusingonthatideathroughout).
Finally,whiletherearemanydifferenttypesorformsofAIsinceAIisabroadconcept,thecriticalcategoriesweneedtothinkaboutarebasedonanAIscaliber.TherearethreemajorAIcalibercategories:
AICaliber1)ArtificialNarrowIntelligence(ANI):SometimesreferredtoasWeakAI,ArtificialNarrowIntelligenceisAIthatspecializesinonearea.TheresAIthatcanbeattheworldchesschampioninchess,butthatstheonlythingitdoes.Askittofigureoutabetterwaytostoredataonaharddrive,
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anditlllookatyoublankly.
AICaliber2)ArtificialGeneralIntelligence(AGI):SometimesreferredtoasStrongAI,orHuman-LevelAI,ArtificialGeneralIntelligencereferstoacomputerthatisassmartasahumanacrosstheboardamachinethatcanperformanyintellectualtaskthatahumanbeingcan.CreatingAGIisamuchhardertaskthancreatingANI,andwereyettodoit.ProfessorLindaGottfredsondescribesintelligenceasaverygeneralmentalcapabilitythat,amongotherthings,involvestheabilitytoreason,plan,solveproblems,thinkabstractly,comprehendcomplexideas,learnquickly,andlearnfromexperience.AGIwouldbeabletodoallofthosethingsaseasilyasyoucan.
AICaliber3)ArtificialSuperintelligence(ASI):OxfordphilosopherandleadingAIthinkerNickBostromdefinessuperintelligenceasanintellectthatismuchsmarterthanthebesthumanbrainsinpracticallyeveryfield,includingscientificcreativity,generalwisdomandsocialskills.ArtificialSuperintelligencerangesfromacomputerthatsjustalittlesmarterthanahumantoonethatstrillionsoftimessmarteracrosstheboard.ASIisthereasonthetopicofAIissuchaspicymeatballandwhythewordsimmortalityandextinctionwillbothappearinthesepostsmultipletimes.
Asofnow,humanshaveconqueredthelowestcaliberofAIANIinmanyways,anditseverywhere.TheAIRevolutionistheroadfromANI,throughAGI,toASIaroadwemayormaynotsurvivebutthat,eitherway,willchangeeverything.
Letstakeacloselookatwhattheleadingthinkersinthefieldbelievethisroadlookslikeandwhythisrevolutionmighthappenwaysoonerthanyoumightthink:
WhereWeAreCurrentlyAWorldRunningonANIArtificialNarrowIntelligenceismachineintelligencethatequalsorexceedshumanintelligenceorefficiencyataspecificthing.Afewexamples:
CarsarefullofANIsystems,fromthecomputerthatfiguresoutwhentheanti-lockbrakesshouldkickintothecomputerthattunestheparametersofthefuelinjectionsystems.Googlesself-drivingcar,whichisbeingtestednow,willcontainrobustANIsystemsthatallowittoperceiveandreacttotheworldaroundit.YourphoneisalittleANIfactory.Whenyounavigateusingyourmapapp,receivetailoredmusicrecommendationsfromPandora,checktomorrowsweather,talktoSiri,ordozensofothereverydayactivities,youreusingANI.YouremailspamfilterisaclassictypeofANIitstartsoffloadedwithintelligenceabouthowtofigureoutwhatsspamandwhatsnot,andthenitlearnsandtailorsitsintelligencetoyouasitgetsexperiencewithyourparticularpreferences.TheNestThermostatdoesthesamethingasitstartstofigureoutyourtypicalroutineandactaccordingly.YouknowthewholecreepythingthatgoesonwhenyousearchforaproductonAmazonandthenyouseethatasarecommendedforyouproductonadifferentsite,orwhenFacebooksomehowknowswhoitmakessenseforyoutoaddasafriend?ThatsanetworkofANIsystems,workingtogethertoinformeachotheraboutwhoyouareandwhatyoulikeandthenusingthatinformationtodecidewhattoshowyou.SamegoesforAmazonsPeoplewhoboughtthisalsoboughtthingthatsanANIsystemwhosejobitistogatherinfofromthebehaviorofmillionsofcustomersandsynthesizethatinfotocleverlyupsellyousoyoullbuymorethings.GoogleTranslateisanotherclassicANIsystemimpressivelygoodatonenarrowtask.Voicerecognitionisanother,andthereareabunchofappsthatusethosetwoANIsasatagteam,allowingyoutospeakasentenceinonelanguageandhavethephonespitoutthesamesentenceinanother.Whenyourplanelands,itsnotahumanthatdecideswhichgateitshouldgoto.Justlikeitsnotahumanthatdeterminedthepriceofyourticket.TheworldsbestCheckers,Chess,Scrabble,Backgammon,andOthelloplayersarenowallANIsystems.GooglesearchisonelargeANIbrainwithincrediblysophisticatedmethodsforrankingpagesandfiguringoutwhattoshowyouinparticular.SamegoesforFacebooksNewsfeed.Andthosearejustintheconsumerworld.SophisticatedANIsystemsarewidelyusedinsectorsandindustrieslikemilitary,manufacturing,andfinance(algorithmichigh-frequencyAItradersaccountformorethanhalfofequitysharestradedonUSmarkets ),andinexpertsystemslikethosethathelpdoctorsmakediagnosesand,mostfamously,IBMsWatson,whocontainedenoughfactsandunderstoodcoyTrebek-speakwellenoughtosoundlybeatthemostprolificJeopardychampions.
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ANIsystemsastheyarenowarentespeciallyscary.Atworst,aglitchyorbadly-programmedANIcancauseanisolatedcatastrophelikeknockingoutapowergrid,causingaharmfulnuclearpowerplantmalfunction,ortriggeringafinancialmarketsdisaster(likethe2010FlashCrashwhenanANIprogramreactedthewrongwaytoanunexpectedsituationandcausedthestockmarkettobrieflyplummet,taking$1trillionofmarketvaluewithit,onlypartofwhichwasrecoveredwhenthemistakewascorrected).
ButwhileANIdoesnthavethecapabilitytocauseanexistentialthreat,weshouldseethisincreasinglylargeandcomplexecosystemofrelatively-harmlessANIasaprecursoroftheworld-alteringhurricanethatsontheway.EachnewANIinnovationquietlyaddsanotherbrickontotheroadtoAGIandASI.OrasAaronSaenzseesit,ourworldsANIsystemsareliketheaminoacidsintheearlyEarthsprimordialoozetheinanimatestuffoflifethat,oneunexpectedday,wokeup.
TheRoadFromANItoAGI
WhyItsSoHard
Nothingwillmakeyouappreciatehumanintelligencelikelearningabouthowunbelievablychallengingitistotrytocreateacomputerassmartasweare.Buildingskyscrapers,puttinghumansinspace,figuringoutthedetailsofhowtheBigBangwentdownallfareasierthanunderstandingourownbrainorhowtomakesomethingascoolasit.Asofnow,thehumanbrainisthemostcomplexobjectintheknownuniverse.
WhatsinterestingisthatthehardpartsoftryingtobuildAGI(acomputerassmartashumansingeneral,notjustatonenarrowspecialty)arenotintuitivelywhatyoudthinktheyare.Buildacomputerthatcanmultiplytwoten-digitnumbersinasplitsecondincrediblyeasy.Buildonethatcanlookatadogandanswerwhetheritsadogoracatspectacularlydifficult.MakeAIthatcanbeatanyhumaninchess?Done.Makeonethatcanreadaparagraphfromasix-year-oldspicturebookandnotjustrecognizethewordsbutunderstandthemeaningofthem?Googleiscurrentlyspendingbillionsofdollarstryingtodoit.Hardthingslikecalculus,financialmarketstrategy,andlanguagetranslationaremind-numbinglyeasyforacomputer,whileeasythingslikevision,motion,movement,andperceptionareinsanelyhardforit.Or,ascomputerscientistDonaldKnuthputsit,AIhasbynowsucceededindoingessentiallyeverythingthatrequiresthinkingbuthasfailedtodomostofwhatpeopleandanimalsdowithoutthinking.'
Whatyouquicklyrealizewhenyouthinkaboutthisisthatthosethingsthatseemeasytousareactuallyunbelievablycomplicated,andtheyonlyseemeasybecausethoseskillshavebeenoptimizedinus(andmostanimals)byhundredsofmillionyearsofanimalevolution.Whenyoureachyourhanduptowardanobject,themuscles,tendons,andbonesinyourshoulder,elbow,andwristinstantlyperformalongseriesofphysicsoperations,inconjunctionwithyoureyes,toallowyoutomoveyourhandinastraightlinethroughthreedimensions.Itseemseffortlesstoyoubecauseyouhaveperfectedsoftwareinyourbrainfordoingit.Sameideagoesforwhyitsnotthatmalwareisdumbfornotbeingabletofigureouttheslantywordrecognitiontestwhenyousignupforanewaccountonasiteitsthatyourbrainissuperimpressiveforbeingableto.
Ontheotherhand,multiplyingbignumbersorplayingchessarenewactivitiesforbiologicalcreaturesandwehaventhadanytimetoevolveaproficiencyatthem,soacomputerdoesntneedtoworktoohardtobeatus.Thinkaboutitwhichwouldyouratherdo,buildaprogramthatcouldmultiplybignumbersoronethatcouldunderstandtheessenceofaBwellenoughthatyoucouldshowitaBinanyoneofthousandsofunpredictablefontsorhandwritinganditcouldinstantlyknowitwasaB?
Onefunexamplewhenyoulookatthis,youandacomputerbothcanfigureoutthatitsarectanglewithtwodistinctshades,alternating:
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Tiedsofar.Butifyoupickuptheblackandrevealthewholeimage
youhavenoproblemgivingafulldescriptionofthevariousopaqueandtranslucentcylinders,slats,and3-Dcorners,butthecomputerwouldfailmiserably.Itwoulddescribewhatitseesavarietyoftwo-dimensionalshapesinseveraldifferentshadeswhichisactuallywhatsthere.Yourbrainisdoingatonoffancyshittointerprettheimplieddepth,shade-mixing,androomlightingthepictureistryingtoportray. Andlookingatthepicturebelow,acomputerseesatwo-dimensionalwhite,black,andgraycollage,whileyoueasilyseewhatitreallyisaphotoofanentirely-black,3-Drock:
Credit:MatthewLloyd
Andeverythingwejustmentionedisstillonlytakinginstagnantinformationandprocessingit.Tobehuman-levelintelligent,acomputerwouldhavetounderstandthingslikethedifferencebetweensubtlefacialexpressions,thedistinctionbetweenbeingpleased,relieved,content,satisfied,andglad,andwhyBraveheartwasgreatbutThePatriotwasterrible.
Daunting.
Sohowdowegetthere?
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FirstKeytoCreatingAGI:IncreasingComputationalPower
OnethingthatdefinitelyneedstohappenforAGItobeapossibilityisanincreaseinthepowerofcomputerhardware.IfanAIsystemisgoingtobeasintelligentasthebrain,itllneedtoequalthebrainsrawcomputingcapacity.
Onewaytoexpressthiscapacityisinthetotalcalculationspersecond(cps)thebraincouldmanage,andyoucouldcometothisnumberbyfiguringoutthemaximumcpsofeachstructureinthebrainandthenaddingthemalltogether.
RayKurzweilcameupwithashortcutbytakingsomeonesprofessionalestimateforthecpsofonestructureandthatstructuresweightcomparedtothatofthewholebrainandthenmultiplyingproportionallytogetanestimateforthetotal.Soundsalittleiffy,buthedidthisabunchoftimeswithvariousprofessionalestimatesofdifferentregions,andthetotalalwaysarrivedinthesameballparkaround10 ,or10quadrillioncps.
Currently,theworldsfastestsupercomputer,ChinasTianhe-2,hasactuallybeatenthatnumber,clockinginatabout34quadrillioncps.ButTianhe-2isalsoadick,takingup720squaremetersofspace,using24megawattsofpower(thebrainrunsonjust20watts),andcosting$390milliontobuild.Notespeciallyapplicabletowideusage,orevenmostcommercialorindustrialusageyet.
Kurzweilsuggeststhatwethinkaboutthestateofcomputersbylookingathowmanycpsyoucanbuyfor$1,000.Whenthatnumberreacheshuman-level10quadrillioncpsthenthatllmeanAGIcouldbecomeaveryrealpartoflife.
MooresLawisahistorically-reliablerulethattheworldsmaximumcomputingpowerdoublesapproximatelyeverytwoyears,meaningcomputerhardwareadvancement,likegeneralhumanadvancementthroughhistory,growsexponentially.LookingathowthisrelatestoKurzweilscps/$1,000metric,werecurrentlyatabout10trillioncps/$1,000,rightonpacewiththisgraphspredictedtrajectory:
Sotheworlds$1,000computersarenowbeatingthemousebrainandtheyreataboutathousandthofhumanlevel.Thisdoesntsoundlikemuchuntilyourememberthatwewereataboutatrillionthofhumanlevelin1985,abillionthin1995,andamillionthin2005.Beingatathousandthin2015putsusrightonpacetogettoanaffordablecomputerby2025thatrivalsthepowerofthebrain.
Soonthehardwareside,therawpowerneededforAGIistechnicallyavailablenow,inChina,andwellbereadyforaffordable,widespreadAGI-caliberhardwarewithin10years.Butrawcomputationalpoweralonedoesntmakeacomputergenerallyintelligentthenextquestionis,howdowebringhuman-levelintelligencetoallthatpower?
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SecondKeytoCreatingAGI:MakingitSmart
Thisistheickypart.Thetruthis,noonereallyknowshowtomakeitsmartwerestilldebatinghowtomakeacomputerhuman-levelintelligentandcapableofknowingwhatadogandaweird-writtenBandamediocremovieis.Butthereareabunchoffar-fetchedstrategiesoutthereandatsomepoint,oneofthemwillwork.HerearethethreemostcommonstrategiesIcameacross:
1)Plagiarizethebrain.
Thisislikescientiststoilingoverhowthatkidwhositsnexttotheminclassissosmartandkeepsdoingsowellonthetests,andeventhoughtheykeepstudyingdiligently,theycantdonearlyaswellasthatkid,andthentheyfinallydecidekfuckitImjustgonnacopythatkidsanswers.Itmakessensewerestumpedtryingtobuildasuper-complexcomputer,andtherehappenstobeaperfectprototypeforoneineachofourheads.
Thescienceworldisworkinghardonreverseengineeringthebraintofigureouthowevolutionmadesucharadthingoptimisticestimatessaywecandothisby2030.Oncewedothat,wellknowallthesecretsofhowthebrainrunssopowerfullyandefficientlyandwecandrawinspirationfromitandstealitsinnovations.Oneexampleofcomputerarchitecturethatmimicsthebrainistheartificialneuralnetwork.Itstartsoutasanetworkoftransistorneurons,connectedtoeachotherwithinputsandoutputs,anditknowsnothinglikeaninfantbrain.Thewayitlearnsisittriestodoatask,sayhandwritingrecognition,andatfirst,itsneuralfiringsandsubsequentguessesatdecipheringeachletterwillbecompletelyrandom.Butwhenitstolditgotsomethingright,thetransistorconnectionsinthefiringpathwaysthathappenedtocreatethatanswerarestrengthened;whenitstolditwaswrong,thosepathwaysconnectionsareweakened.Afteralotofthistrialandfeedback,thenetworkhas,byitself,formedsmartneuralpathwaysandthemachinehasbecomeoptimizedforthetask.Thebrainlearnsabitlikethisbutinamoresophisticatedway,andaswecontinuetostudythebrain,werediscoveringingeniousnewwaystotakeadvantageofneuralcircuitry.
Moreextremeplagiarisminvolvesastrategycalledwholebrainemulation,wherethegoalistoslicearealbrainintothinlayers,scaneachone,usesoftwaretoassembleanaccuratereconstructed3-Dmodel,andthenimplementthemodelonapowerfulcomputer.Wedthenhaveacomputerofficiallycapableofeverythingthebrainiscapableofitwouldjustneedtolearnandgatherinformation.Ifengineersgetreallygood,theydbeabletoemulatearealbrainwithsuchexactaccuracythatthebrainsfullpersonalityandmemorywouldbeintactoncethebrainarchitecturehasbeenuploadedtoacomputer.IfthebrainbelongedtoJimrightbeforehepassedaway,thecomputerwouldnowwakeupasJim(?),whichwouldbearobusthuman-levelAGI,andwecouldnowworkonturningJimintoanunimaginablysmartASI,whichhedprobablybereallyexcitedabout.
Howfararewefromachievingwholebrainemulation?Wellsofar,wevenotyetjustrecentlybeenabletoemulatea1mm-longflatwormbrain,whichconsistsofjust302totalneurons.Thehumanbraincontains100billion.Ifthatmakesitseemlikeahopelessproject,rememberthepowerofexponentialprogressnowthatweveconqueredthetinywormbrain,anantmighthappenbeforetoolong,followedbyamouse,andsuddenlythiswillseemmuchmoreplausible.
2)Trytomakeevolutiondowhatitdidbeforebutforusthistime.
Soifwedecidethesmartkidstestistoohardtocopy,wecantrytocopythewayhestudiesforthetestsinstead.
Heressomethingweknow.Buildingacomputeraspowerfulasthebrainispossibleourownbrainsevolutionisproof.Andifthebrainisjusttoocomplexforustoemulate,wecouldtrytoemulateevolutioninstead.Thefactis,evenifwecanemulateabrain,thatmightbeliketryingtobuildanairplanebycopyingabirdswing-flappingmotionsoften,machinesarebestdesignedusingafresh,machine-orientedapproach,notbymimickingbiologyexactly.
SohowcanwesimulateevolutiontobuildAGI?Themethod,calledgeneticalgorithms,wouldworksomethinglikethis:therewouldbeaperformance-and-evaluationprocessthatwouldhappenagainandagain(thesamewaybiologicalcreaturesperformbylivinglifeandareevaluatedbywhethertheymanagetoreproduceornot).Agroupofcomputerswouldtrytodotasks,andthemostsuccessfuloneswouldbebredwitheachotherbyhavinghalfofeachoftheirprogrammingmergedtogetherintoanewcomputer.Thelesssuccessfuloneswouldbeeliminated.Overmany,manyiterations,thisnaturalselectionprocesswouldproducebetterandbettercomputers.Thechallengewouldbecreatinganautomatedevaluationandbreedingcyclesothisevolutionprocesscouldrunonitsown.
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Thedownsideofcopyingevolutionisthatevolutionlikestotakeabillionyearstodothingsandwewanttodothisinafewdecades.
Butwehavealotofadvantagesoverevolution.First,evolutionhasnoforesightandworksrandomlyitproducesmoreunhelpfulmutationsthanhelpfulones,butwewouldcontroltheprocesssoitwouldonlybedrivenbybeneficialglitchesandtargetedtweaks.Secondly,evolutiondoesntaimforanything,includingintelligencesometimesanenvironmentmightevenselectagainsthigherintelligence(sinceitusesalotofenergy).We,ontheotherhand,couldspecificallydirectthisevolutionaryprocesstowardincreasingintelligence.Third,toselectforintelligence,evolutionhastoinnovateinabunchofotherwaystofacilitateintelligencelikerevampingthewayscellsproduceenergywhenwecanremovethoseextraburdensandusethingslikeelectricity.Itsnodoubtwedbemuch,muchfasterthanevolutionbutitsstillnotclearwhetherwellbeabletoimproveuponevolutionenoughtomakethisaviablestrategy.
3)Makethiswholethingthecomputersproblem,notours.
Thisiswhenscientistsgetdesperateandtrytoprogramthetesttotakeitself.Butitmightbethemostpromisingmethodwehave.
TheideaisthatwedbuildacomputerwhosetwomajorskillswouldbedoingresearchonAIandcodingchangesintoitselfallowingittonotonlylearnbuttoimproveitsownarchitecture.Wedteachcomputerstobecomputerscientistssotheycouldbootstraptheirowndevelopment.Andthatwouldbetheirmainjobfiguringouthowtomakethemselvessmarter.Moreonthislater.
AllofThisCouldHappenSoon
Rapidadvancementsinhardwareandinnovativeexperimentationwithsoftwarearehappeningsimultaneously,andAGIcouldcreepuponusquicklyandunexpectedlyfortwomainreasons:
1)ExponentialgrowthisintenseandwhatseemslikeasnailspaceofadvancementcanquicklyraceupwardsthisGIFillustratesthisconceptnicely:
Source
2)Whenitcomestosoftware,progresscanseemslow,butthenoneepiphanycaninstantlychangetherateofadvancement(kindoflikethewayscience,duringthetimehumansthoughttheuniversewasgeocentric,washavingdifficultycalculatinghowtheuniverseworked,butthenthediscoverythatitwasheliocentricsuddenlymadeeverythingmucheasier).Or,whenitcomestosomethinglikeacomputerthatimprovesitself,wemightseemfarawaybutactuallybejustonetweakofthesystemawayfromhavingitbecome1,000timesmoreeffectiveandzoomingupwardtohuman-levelintelligence.
TheRoadFromAGItoASIAtsomepoint,wellhaveachievedAGIcomputerswithhuman-levelgeneralintelligence.Justabunchofpeopleandcomputerslivingtogetherinequality.
Ohactuallynotatall.
Thethingis,AGIwithanidenticallevelofintelligenceandcomputationalcapacityasahumanwould
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4/14/2015 TheAIRevolution:RoadtoSuperintelligenceWaitButWhy
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stillhavesignificantadvantagesoverhumans.Like:
Hardware:
Speed.Thebrainsneuronsmaxoutataround200Hz,whiletodaysmicroprocessors(whicharemuchslowerthantheywillbewhenwereachAGI)runat2GHz,or10milliontimesfasterthanourneurons.Andthebrainsinternalcommunications,whichcanmoveatabout120m/s,arehorriblyoutmatchedbyacomputersabilitytocommunicateopticallyatthespeedoflight.Sizeandstorage.Thebrainislockedintoitssizebytheshapeofourskulls,anditcouldntgetmuchbiggeranyway,orthe120m/sinternalcommunicationswouldtaketoolongtogetfromonebrainstructuretoanother.Computerscanexpandtoanyphysicalsize,allowingfarmorehardwaretobeputtowork,amuchlargerworkingmemory(RAM),andalongtermmemory(harddrivestorage)thathasbothfargreatercapacityandprecisionthanourown.Reliabilityanddurability.Itsnotonlythememoriesofacomputerthatwouldbemoreprecise.Computertransistorsaremoreaccuratethanbiologicalneurons,andtheyrelesslikelytodeteriorate(andcanberepairedorreplacediftheydo).Humanbrainsalsogetfatiguedeasily,whilecomputerscanrunnonstop,atpeakperformance,24/7.
Software:
Editability,upgradability,andawiderbreadthofpossibility.Unlikethehumanbrain,computersoftwarecanreceiveupdatesandfixesandcanbeeasilyexperimentedon.Theupgradescouldalsospantoareaswherehumanbrainsareweak.Humanvisionsoftwareissuperblyadvanced,whileitscomplexengineeringcapabilityisprettylow-grade.Computerscouldmatchthehumanonvisionsoftwarebutcouldalsobecomeequallyoptimizedinengineeringandanyotherarea.Collectivecapability.Humanscrushallotherspeciesatbuildingavastcollectiveintelligence.Beginningwiththedevelopmentoflanguageandtheformingoflarge,densecommunities,advancingthroughtheinventionsofwritingandprinting,andnowintensifiedthroughtoolsliketheinternet,humanityscollectiveintelligenceisoneofthemajorreasonswevebeenabletogetsofaraheadofallotherspecies.Andcomputerswillbewaybetteratitthanweare.AworldwidenetworkofAIrunningaparticularprogramcouldregularlysyncwithitselfsothatanythinganyonecomputerlearnedwouldbeinstantlyuploadedtoallothercomputers.Thegroupcouldalsotakeononegoalasaunit,becausetherewouldntnecessarilybedissentingopinionsandmotivationsandself-interest,likewehavewithinthehumanpopulation.
AI,whichwilllikelygettoAGIbybeingprogrammedtoself-improve,wouldntseehuman-levelintelligenceassomeimportantmilestoneitsonlyarelevantmarkerfromourpointofviewandwouldnthaveanyreasontostopatourlevel.Andgiventheadvantagesoverusthatevenhumanintelligence-equivalentAGIwouldhave,itsprettyobviousthatitwouldonlyhithumanintelligenceforabriefinstantbeforeracingonwardstotherealmofsuperior-to-humanintelligence.
Thismayshocktheshitoutofuswhenithappens.Thereasonisthatfromourperspective,A)whiletheintelligenceofdifferentkindsofanimalsvaries,themaincharacteristicwereawareofaboutanyanimalsintelligenceisthatitsfarlowerthanours,andB)weviewthesmartesthumansasWAYsmarterthanthedumbesthumans.Kindoflikethis:
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SoasAIzoomsupwardinintelligencetowardus,wellseeitassimplybecomingsmarter,forananimal.Then,whenithitsthelowestcapacityofhumanityNickBostromusesthetermthevillageidiotwellbelike,Ohwow,itslikeadumbhuman.Cute!Theonlythingis,inthegrandspectrumofintelligence,allhumans,fromthevillageidiottoEinstein,arewithinaverysmallrangesojustafterhittingvillageidiot-levelandbeingdeclaredtobeAGI,itllsuddenlybesmarterthanEinsteinandwewontknowwhathitus:
Andwhathappensafterthat?
AnIntelligenceExplosion
Ihopeyouenjoyednormaltime,becausethisiswhenthistopicgetsunnormalandscary,anditsgonnastaythatwayfromhereforward.IwanttopauseheretoremindyouthateverysinglethingImgoingtosayisrealrealscienceandrealforecastsofthefuturefromalargearrayofthemostrespectedthinkersandscientists.Justkeeprememberingthat.
Anyway,asIsaidabove,mostofourcurrentmodelsforgettingtoAGIinvolvetheAIgettingtherebyself-improvement.AndonceitgetstoAGI,evensystemsthatformedandgrewthroughmethodsthatdidntinvolveself-improvementwouldnowbesmartenoughtobeginself-improvingiftheywantedto.
Andhereswherewegettoanintenseconcept:recursiveself-improvement.Itworkslikethis
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AnAIsystematacertainlevelletssayhumanvillageidiotisprogrammedwiththegoalofimprovingitsownintelligence.Onceitdoes,itssmartermaybeatthispointitsatEinsteinslevelsonowwhenitworkstoimproveitsintelligence,withanEinstein-levelintellect,ithasaneasiertimeanditcanmakebiggerleaps.Theseleapsmakeitmuchsmarterthananyhuman,allowingittomakeevenbiggerleaps.Astheleapsgrowlargerandhappenmorerapidly,theAGIsoarsupwardsinintelligenceandsoonreachesthesuperintelligentlevelofanASIsystem.ThisiscalledanIntelligenceExplosion,anditstheultimateexampleofTheLawofAcceleratingReturns.
ThereissomedebateabouthowsoonAIwillreachhuman-levelgeneralintelligencethemedianyearonasurveyofhundredsofscientistsaboutwhentheybelievedwedbemorelikelythannottohavereachedAGIwas2040 thatsonly25yearsfromnow,whichdoesntsoundthathugeuntilyouconsiderthatmanyofthethinkersinthisfieldthinkitslikelythattheprogressionfromAGItoASIhappensveryquickly.Likethiscouldhappen:
IttakesdecadesforthefirstAIsystemtoreachlow-levelgeneralintelligence,butitfinallyhappens.Acomputerisabletounderstandtheworldarounditaswellasahumanfour-year-old.Suddenly,withinanhourofhittingthatmilestone,thesystempumpsoutthegrandtheoryofphysicsthatunifiesgeneralrelativityandquantummechanics,somethingnohumanhasbeenabletodefinitivelydo.90minutesafterthat,theAIhasbecomeanASI,170,000timesmoreintelligentthanahuman.
Superintelligenceofthatmagnitudeisnotsomethingwecanremotelygrasp,anymorethanabumblebeecanwrapitsheadaroundKeynesianEconomics.Inourworld,smartmeansa130IQandstupidmeansan85IQwedonthaveawordforanIQof12,952.
WhatwedoknowisthathumansutterdominanceonthisEarthsuggestsaclearrule:withintelligencecomespower.WhichmeansanASI,whenwecreateit,willbethemostpowerfulbeinginthehistoryoflifeonEarth,andalllivingthings,includinghumans,willbeentirelyatitswhimandthismighthappeninthenextfewdecades.
Ifourmeagerbrainswereabletoinventwifi,thensomething100or1,000or1billiontimessmarterthanweareshouldhavenoproblemcontrollingthepositioningofeachandeveryatomintheworldinanywayitlikes,atanytimeeverythingweconsidermagic,everypowerweimagineasupremeGodtohavewillbeasmundaneanactivityfortheASIasflippingonalightswitchisforus.Creatingthetechnologytoreversehumanaging,curingdiseaseandhungerandevenmortality,reprogrammingtheweathertoprotectthefutureoflifeonEarthallsuddenlypossible.AlsopossibleistheimmediateendofalllifeonEarth.Asfaraswereconcerned,ifanASIcomestobeing,thereisnowanomnipotentGodonEarthandtheall-importantquestionforusis:
WillitbeaniceGod?
ThatsthetopicofPart2ofthispost.
___________
SourcesatthebottomofPart2.
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