The Aging Population Source: U.S. Census Bureau Percent Growth in U.S. Population, 1986-2006 by Age...

The Aging Population

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Percent Growth in U.S. Population, 1986-2006by Age Bracket

14%17%

22%

12%

-1%

-7%

0%

19%

62%

94%

84%

55%

19%

11%

57%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

<5 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-74 75+


Growth in U.S. Population Over Five-Year Intervals, 1986-2006

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

<5 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-74 75+

1986-91 1991-96 1996-2001 2001-06

Source: U.S. Department of Education/U.S. Census Bureau

The Impact of Traditional Students on Total College Enrollment

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

120%

125%

130%

135%

140%

84-85

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 04-05

Index: 1985 = 100%

Total Enrollment

First-Time Freshmen

18-Year Olds

Source: U.S.Department of Education

Student Enrollments, 1986-2016by Age Bracket

750,000

1,750,000

2,750,000

3,750,000

4,750,000

5,750,000

6,750,000

7,750,000

8,750,000

9,750,000

10,750,000

11,750,000

1985-86 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2015-16

18-24

30-34

25-2935+

Source: U.S. Department of Education

College Enrollment Profile, 1986-2016by Age Bracket

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1985-86 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2015-16

18-24

30-34

35+25-29

Undergraduate Enrollment by Attendance Status 1986-2016


0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

85-86

88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 15-16

Full-time Part-Time

5,618,000

9,009,000

5,094,000

7,169,000

6,259,000

10,333,000

4,271,000

6,348,000

Change in Part-Time Enrollment, 1986-2016


10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

40.2% 41.6%

35.7%37.0%

Graduate and Professional Enrollment, 1986-2016by Attendance Status


0

300,000

600,000

900,000

1,200,000

1,500,000

1,800,000

Full-time Part-time

1,341,000

1,173,000

983,000

1,046,000

1,715,000

1,293,000

755,000

894,000


Gender and Attendance Status1985-2015

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

PT Men

FT Men

PT Women

FT Women

Growing Ethnic Diversity


Growth Rate of U.S. Population by Ethnic Group1981-2051

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

700%

800%

900%

1000%

1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051

Index: 1981 = 100%

Black

White

Hispanic

Asian


Growth in U.S. Population by Ethnic Group1981-2051

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

400,000,000

450,000,000

80-81 85-86 90-91 95-96 00-01 05-06 10-11 15-16 20-21 25-26 30-31 40-41 50-51

White Non-Hisp Black Hispanic Asian


Concentration of Minorities Enrolled in Public Elementary/Secondary Schools, 2003-04,

and Selected Changes from 1993-94

36% to 50%

21% to 35%

10% to 20%

More than 50%

Less than 10%

+19.7%

+9.9%

+10.1%

+19.4%

+9.0%

+10.4%

+10.1%

+9.6%

+11.2%


High School Graduation Rates by Ethnic Group1999-2006

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

05-0604-0503-0402-0301-0200-0199-0098-99

White, non-Hispanic

Black

Hispanic

Asian


College-Going Rates of High School Graduates Aged 18 to 24 by Ethnic Group, 1999-2006

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

05-0604-0503-0402-0301-0200-0199-0098-99

White, Non-Hispanic

Black

Hispanic

Asian


Concentration of Minorities Enrolled in Higher Education, 2005-06

and Selected Changes from 1994-95

21% to 30%

11% to 20%

0 to 10%

31% to 40%

More than 40%

+12.4%

+10.6%

+12.5%

+11.7%

+13.6%

+15.4%

+9.9%

+14.8%

+9.4%

+10.9%

+10.5%

+9.0%

+9.7%

+10.5%

+11.6%

+9.8%

+9.0%

Growth in College Enrollment by Ethnic Group1994-95 to 2005-06


90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

160%

170%

180%

94-95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 04-05

Index: 1995 = 100%

Asian

Hispanic

American Indian

Black

White, Non-Hispanic

Racial-Ethnic Distribution in College Enrollment 1994-95 to 2005-06


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

94-95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 04-05

White/ Non-Hispanic Black Hispanic Asian American Indian

Minority Males as a Percent of Total College Enrollment, 1994-95 to 2005-06


0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

94-95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 04-05

Black

Hispanic

Asian

American Indian

Minority Females as a Percent of Total College Enrollment, 1994-95 to 2005-06


0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

94-95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 04-05

Black

Hispanic

Asian

American Indian

Ratio of Bachelor’s Degrees Earned to Enrollments1993-94 to 2003-04


0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

93-94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 03-04

White

American Indian

Hispanic

Black

Asian

2006 High School Seniors: Graduation and Four-Year College Enrollment

Selected States

2006 High School Seniors: Graduation and Four-Year College Enrollment: California

Source: The College Board/U.S. Department of Education

102,996

378,699

431,926

191,740

155,356

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000

Fall 2006 enrolled 4-yr. colleges

2005-06 H.S. graduates

2005-06 H.S. seniors

2005-06 senior SAT

2004-05 junior PSAT

2006 High School Seniors: Graduation and Four-Year College Enrollment: Florida


59,868

146,682

165,350

94,601

54,045

0 37,000 74,000 111,000 148,000 185,000




2005-06 senior SAT

2004-05 junior PSAT

2006 High School Seniors: Graduation and Four-Year College Enrollment: Massachusetts


34,630

77,683

81,554

59,529

48,500

0 18,000 36,000 54,000 72,000 90,000




2005-06 senior SAT

2004-05 junior PSAT

2006 High School Seniors: Graduation and Four-Year College Enrollment: New York


89,751

165,998

153,518

124,657

179,167

0 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 200,000




2005-06 senior SAT

2004-05 junior PSAT

2006 High School Seniors: Graduation and Four-Year College Enrollment: Ohio


55,089

118,725

131,119

34,970

54,398

0 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 150,000




2005-06 senior SAT

2004-05 junior PSAT

2006 High School Seniors: Graduation and Four-Year College Enrollment: Texas


81,098

252,493

257,298

129,784

144,497

0 56,000 112,000 168,000 224,000 280,000




2005-06 senior SAT

2004-05 junior PSAT

Other Trends Affecting Higher Education


Percent Change in Resident Population, 1985-2005by College Board Region

6.4%

5.5%

15.3%

5.1%

12.9%

22.1%

5.7%

4.9%

15.4%

2.3%

24.8%

17.3%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0%

New England

Middle States

South

Midwest

Southwest

West

85-95 95-05


Percent of High School Graduates Enrolled in a Four-Year College Outside Their Home State

Fall 2004

30% to 49%

15% to 29%

Less than 15%

50% or more

DE +10%

-11%-27%

-9%

-6%

-18%

-11%

CT -6%

MD+6%

+7%

+5%


States with Largest Net Migration of Four-YearCollege Freshmen, Fall 2004

7,525

6,567

5,699

4,680

4,568

3,999

-2,331

-3,273

-7,003

-7,676

-8,056

-10,207

-22,187

12,165

-30,000 -24,000 -18,000 -12,000 -6,000 0 6,000 12,000 18,000

Pennsylvania

North Carolina

District of Columbia

Indiana

Massachusetts

Florida

Utah

New York

Minnesota

California

Texas

Maryland

Illinois

New Jersey

Source: CIRP

Change in Intended Major 1976-77 to 2006-07

0%

7%

14%

21%

28%

Business Engineering Education BiologicalSciences

ComputerScience

SocialSciences

Art, Music,Drama

HealthProfessions

76-77 86-87 96-97 06-07

Trends in College Costs and Financial Aid

Trends in Concern About Ability to Finance a College Education, 1976-77 to 2006-07

Source: CIRP

16.9% 17.4%13.7% 16.6% 17.2%

12.4% 11.6%

49.9% 51.5%

48.6%

53.9% 52.2%

52.2% 52.5%

33.2% 31.1%37.6%

29.6% 30.6%35.3% 35.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

76-77 81-82 86-87 92-93 96-97 01-02 06-07

Major Concern Some None

Percent For Whom Financing was a Major Concern 1992-93 to 2006-07 (Selected Years)

Source: CIRP

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

92-93 94-95 96-97 97-98 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07

Public Univ Private Univ Public 4-Yr Private (Non-Sect) 4-Yr

Trends in Rate of Increase in Total Four-Year College Costs, 1979-80 to 2005-06


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

79-80

81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 04-05

Public

Private

CPI

Trends in Rate of Increase in Four-Year College Tuition & Fees, 1979-80 to 2005-06


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

79-80

81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 04-05

Public

Private

CPI

College Costs and Disposable Per Capita Income, 1996-97 to 2006-07

Source:The College Board

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

Private 4-Year Public 4-Year Per Capita Income

Published Charges

Year-to-Year Change in College Costs and Disposable Income, 1996-97 to 2006-07


0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

95-96 to 96-97

96-97 to 97-98

97-98 to 98-99

98-99 to 99-00

99-00 to 00-01

00-01 to 01-02

01-02 to 02-03

02-03 to 03-04

03-04 to 04-05

04-05 to 05-06

05-06 to06-07

Private 4-Year Public 4-Year Per Capita Income

Change in published charges

Types of Financial Aid as a Percentage of Total, 1995-96 to 2005-06


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06

Grants

Loans

Work

Tax Benefits

Sources of Financial Aid as Percentage of Total, 1995-96 to 2005-06


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06

Federal: Generally Available Federal: Specially Directed Education Tax BenefitsInstitutional Grants State Grants Private & Employer GrantsNon-Federal Loans

The Aging Population Source: U.S. Census Bureau Percent Growth in U.S. Population, 1986-2006 by Age...

Documents

Transcript of The Aging Population Source: U.S. Census Bureau Percent Growth in U.S. Population, 1986-2006 by Age...