The African dairy scene

Koos CoetzeeMilk Producers’ OrganisationSeptember 2014

Geographical orientation

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Contents

• The dark continent awakens• Dairy situation in Africa• Dairy situation in South Africa• Challenges for dairy development in Africa

Demographics

• Population– 1,033 billion in 2013 (second highest continent)– Highest population:

• Nigeria: 173,611,131• Ethiopia: 95,045,679• Egypt: 82,196,587• Democratic Republic of the Congo: 67,363,365• South Africa: 52,914,243

Demographics

• Population growth– 1,9 billion by 2015– Quadruple in 90 years– Nigeria close to 1 Billion by 2100– Possibly higher than Chinese population– Nigeria = size of Texas

Demographics

• Urbanisation– Largely through rural – urban migration

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Sub Saharan Africa Africa South Africa

%

Demographics

• Young population– Sub Saharan Africa

• 43% 0 – 14• 52% 15 – 64

– EU• 16% 0 – 14• 65% 15 – 64

– World• 26% 0 – 14• 66% 15 - 64

Income growth

• Fast economic growth• Wealth concentrated in few hands• Growing food demand• Met by imports

Growth of retail sector

• Up to 1990 informal trade based• Supermarkets developed in SA and Kenya• By 2003 SA supermarkets were active in 13 countries• Currently:

– Shoprite Checkers • 1 396 outlets in 16 countries

– Masmart • 15 countries• Walmart share through investment in Masmart

– Pick n Pay

International involvement

• Danone/ Brookside• Parmalat• Nestlé• Campina• Fonterra (CFI)

Dairy farming in Africa

Country

Milk production, 2010

Number of dairy farms

Number of dairy cows

Production growth (%)

  mil.t. ECM** ('000) 1000 cows 2006-2010Algeria 1.5 20 822 0.8Egypt 6.3 975 3 600 1.7Cameroon 0.1 4.03 270 0Ethiopia 3 22 456 9 628 6.1Kenya 3.9 1 725 6 904 2.8Morocco 2.2 261 1 835 7.5Nigeria 0.5 325 4 252 1.4

South Africa 2.8 2.6 530 2.6Sudan 5.6 ---- 14 450 0.2Uganda 1.2 1 663 4 293 5.5Rwanda* 0.35 ---- ---- ----

Dairy statistics, selected African countries, 2010

African dairy farming

• Total production = 4,7% of world production• Deficit in 2009 = 5,5 Mil Tonnes of milk• Small dairy herds

– Average herd size less than 4– Global average less than 3– South Africa exception 350 cows in milk

• Largely subsistence farming• Low % milk to processors• Production estimates optimistic

• 1 830 commercial dairy farms• Many small non-commercial farmers• Milk production 2 700 million litres

– Production per farm = 3 650 litres per day– Larger farms (> 5 000 litres/day produce 50% of milk

• Secondary industry– 5 large and 160 other milk buyers/processors– 130 producer-distributors (distribute own milk)

• Concentrated retail sector– 4 retailers handle 75%+ of total sales

Structure of SA dairy industry

• Products– 60% Liquid– 40% Concentrated products

• Free market system– Relatively low import tariffs – Various trade agreements – No national quota systems– No pricing structure– No minimum prices– In many cases no contracts!– No subsidies

Structure of SA dairy sector

Geographical distribution

Source: MPO

Herd size distribution

1 - 50 51 - 100 101 - 200 201-300 > 3000.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

12.6%

23.3%

25.7%

11.7%

26.7%

13.9%

20.6% 21.3%

13.4%

30.8%

2009 2012Number of cows in herd

% o

f h

erd

s

Average cows in milk = 365

Size distribution per province

Northwest

Freestate

Mpumalanga

Northern Cape

Limpopo

Western Cape

Gauteng

Average

Kwazulu Natal

Eastern Cape

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Number of cows in milk (2012)

• Three production systems– Total mixed ration systems– Pasture –based systems– Mixed systems

Production systems

• Feedlot or Free-stall barn– Generally larger herds– High production 35 kg +– Roughage

• Maize and other silage• Lucerne (alfalfa)• Other hay

– Concentrates• Maize• Soybeans• Other • Feed 350 g. to 400 g/ kg milk

• Trend towards housing in barns

Total mixed ration systems

• Grass/clover mixtures – Mostly irrigated pastures– Larger herds– Production 20 kg – 25 kg

• Concentrate fed in milking parlour– Maize/soybeans +other– 200 g. – 250 g. concentrate per kg milk– Individual feeding with sensors

• 750 Kg MS per hectare

Pasture-based system

• Mixed farms in inland areas– Dry-land crop production– Beef/mutton/wool farming– Smaller herds– Decreasing number of producers

• Pastures + feedlot + concentrates

Mixed system

Trends

• Production growth• Demand growth• Export growth

– Net exporter since 2009• Volatile producer and feed prices

Milk:feed price ratio

Jan-0

3

Jan-0

4

Jan-0

5

Jan-0

6

Jan-0

7

Jan-0

8

Jan-0

9

Jan-1

0

Jan-1

1

Jan-1

2

Jan-1

3

Jan-1

40.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

Me

lk/v

oe

r p

rys

ve

rho

ud

ing

© IFCN Dairy Research Center 2014

Countries’ milk price situation in 2013

Milk price in 2013US-$/100 kg ECM

> 60

> 50 <= 60

> 40 <= 50

> 30 <= 40

> 20 <= 30

<= 20

no data

Combined IFCN world milk price indicator 2013:50.6 USD/100kg ECM

Changes in population

LSM 1 - 3 LSM 4-5 LSM 6 - 8 LSM 9 - 100.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

50.00%

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2012

% o

f ad

ult

po

pu

lati

on

- 69% +23%+70%

+36%

Summary

• African market is growing• Global companies already active • Danger for Africa:

– Reconstituting milk from solids– Dumped products disguised as food aid.

• SA milk producers– Large, highly efficient

• Well developed secondary industry