Current status of BTS & CS harmonisation in

non-EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement

economies and OECD accession countries

The 4th joint EU-OECD Workshop onBusiness and Consumer Opinion Surveys

Brussels 12-13 October 2009

Elena Tosetto (OECD), Gyorgy Gyomai (OECD)

Outline• Introduction

• OECD Harmonised System of BTS: some quick instructions

• Overview of the current status of the harmonisation of the surveys in non-EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries by sector

• Summary table of the current status of the harmonisation (rough indication)

• Conclusions

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Introduction• Globalisation: comparisons between countries and regions crucial

• The EU Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs established standard framework for BTS during 1970s.

• The OECD & the EU worked to adapt this system for use by other countries in Europe and Central Asia.• Asian Pacific countries, Latin America and Caribbean region: implementation of the harmonised BTS

underway

• Following from Nilsson (2003), overview enlarged to more sectors and more countries:

Non-EU OECD Countries: Australia, Canada, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, South Korea, Switzerland, Turkey and Unites States

OECD enhanced engaged economies: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa OECD (Non-EU) accession countries: Chile and Israel Sectors: Industry, Construction, Retail Trade, Services and Consumer Survey

• Review based on information available and methodological information sent by the countries after an OECD request by e-mail (July-August 2009)

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OECD Harmonised System of BTS: quick instructions

• Complete and detailed description: OECD “Business Tendency Surveys: a Handbook” freely available on the OECD website at http://www.oecd.org/document/36/0,3343,en_2649_34353_14638564_1_1_1_1,00.html

• Aim of BTS: monitor and forecast Short Term economic developments

• Sectors most sensitive to cyclical fluctuations: Industry, Construction, Retail Trade and Services

• To check inter-country comparability: frequency, coverage and format of the survey questions

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BTS in industry in Non-EU OECD countries:

Coverage and Format of questions in individual countries corresponding to harmonised questions

Industry/ManufacturingOECD

Harmonised System

Canada USA Mexico Australia New Zealand Japan Norway Switzerland Turkey

Source OECD CBOC ISM BM ACCI NZIER BOJ SN KOF TCBSurvey frequency Q M M,S Q Q Q Q M,Q MIndustry/Manufacturing Manuf Manuf Manuf Manuf Manuf Industry Manuf ManufProduction:tendency T1/T3 T1 T1 T3 T3 T3 T1 T1Production: future tendency F3 F3 F3 F3 F3 F3 F1Order books: level L T1 L T3* T3** L L T1*Export order books: level L T1* T3** T3** T3* LStock of finished goods: level L T1 L T3 L L L L T1Selling Prices: future tendency

F3 F6 F3 F3 F3 F3 F3 F1

Employment: future tendency F3 T1 F3 F3 F3 FL F3 F3 F1Production constraints N N N N N NCapacity utilisation L(%) L L(%) L L(%) L(%) L (%)Business situation: present T1/T3 L LBusiness situation: future F6 F6*** F3 F6*** F6*** FL F6

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Legend: CBOC The Conference Board of Canada BOJ Bank of JapanM: Monthly ISM Institute for Supply Management United States SN Statistics NorwayQ: Quarterly BM Bank of Mexico KOF KOF Swiss Economic InstituteS: Six-monthly ACCI Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry TCB Central Bank of the Republic of TurkeyA: Annual NZIER New Zealand Institute of Economic Research

T1 = Past/present change compared to 1 month ago F1 = Future change for 1 month ahead * New orders (export if it is the case)T3 = Past/present change compared to 3 months ago F2-3 = Future change for 2 or 3 months ahead ** Deliveries (export if it is the case)T6 = Past/present change compared to 6 months ago F3 = Future change for 3 months ahead *** Business situation in the countryT12 = Past/present change compared to 12 months ago F6 = Future change for 6 months ahead **** DemandL = Present level F12 = Future change for 12 months aheadFL = Future level N = Nominal list of alternative

BTS in industry in OECD enhanced engagement economies and

OECD accession countries:Coverage and Format of questions

Industry/ManufacturingOECD

Harmonised System

Brazil Indonesia Russia South Africa Chile Israel Israel

Source OECD FGV BI IET BER BCC MAI BOISurvey frequency M,Q Q M,Q Q M Q QIndustry/Manufacturing Manuf Manuf Industry Manuf Manuf Manuf ManufProduction:tendency T1/T3 L T3 T1 T3 T3Production: future tendency F3 F3 F2-3 F3 F3 F3Order books: level L L**** L T3 L T3 T3 Export order books: level L L**** L T3 T3 T3Stock of finished goods: level L L L L L T3 T3Selling Prices: future tendency

F3 F3 F2-3 F3 F6

Employment: future tendency F3 F3 F2-3 F3 F3 F3 T3Production constraints N N N N T3 NCapacity utilisation L(%) L(%) L(%) % L L(%) T3Business situation: present T1/T3 L L L T3Business situation: future F6 F6 F6 F6 F3 & F12 F3 (F6***)

•Frequency: Majority of countries surveyed conducts quarterly surveys

•Coverage (necessary condition): Good (broadly speaking)

•Format (step forward): The most harmonised industry survey•Non-EU OECD countries: Switzerland ( 10 over 11 harmonised questions)•OECD enhanced engaged economies & OECD accession countries: Brazil, Russia, South Africa (9 or 8 over 11)

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FGV Fundacao Getulio Vargas Brazil BER Bureau for Economic Research South AfricaNBS National Bureau of Statistics of China BCC Central Bank of ChileBI Bank of Indonesia MAI Manufactures Association of IsraelIET Institute for the Economy in Transition Russia BOI Bank of Israel

BTS in Construction and Retail Trade in Non-EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement economies

and OECD accession countries: Coverage and Format

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ConstructionOECD

Harmonised System

Mexico New Zealand Japan Switzerland Indonesia South Africa Chile Israel

Source BM NZIER BOJ KOF BI BER BCC BOISurvey frequency M,S Q Q Q Q Q M QBusiness activity: present T1/T3 L L L L T3 L T3Production constraints N N N N NOrder books L L T3**,F3** L L

Employment: future tendency F3 F3 F3 FL F3 F3 F3

Output prices: future tendency

F3 F3 F3 F3 F6 T3

Period of production secured months monthsNew orders (contracts) F3 F3 F3Financial situation T1/T3 L LDelays in payment by client T1/T3 T3Technical capacity L L(%) L(%)

Retail TradeOECD

Harmonised System

Mexico New Zealand Japan Switzerland Indonesia South Africa Chile Israel

Source BM NZIER BOJ KOF BI BER BCC BOISurvey frequency M,S Q Q M,Q Q Q M QBusiness situation: present T1/T3 L L L L T3*** LBusiness situation: future F6 F6 F6*** FL F6 F6 F3*** F6 Stocks L L L L L L L T3Orders placed: future tendency

F3 F3 F3 F3 T3

Employment: future tendency F3 F3 F3 FL F3 F3 F3Selling prices: tendency T1/T3 T3 T3 T3Selling prices: future tendency F3 F6 F3 F3 F3 F6Financial situation T1/T3 L LCompetition in the sector T1/T3Activity constraints N N N

BTS in Services in Non-EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement

economies and OECD accession countries: Coverage and Format

ServicesOECD

Harmonised System

USA New Zealand Japan Switzerland Indonesia Israel

Source ISM NZIER BOJ KOF BI BOISurvey frequency M Q Q Q Q QDemand: present T1/T3 T1 T3Demand: future tendency F3 F3Employment: present T1/T3 T1 T3 L L T3Employment: future tendency F3 F3 FL F3Activity constraints N N N NBusiness situation: present T1/T3 T1 L L L T3Business situation: future F6 F6*** FL F6 F6 F3Financial situation T1/T3 L LAccess to the credit T1/T3 L L

•Frequency: Majority quarterly surveys (monthly: Mexico, Chile, Switzerland (Retail Trade), and the USA)

•Coverage (necessary condition): Good (broadly speaking)

•Format (step forward): The most harmonised surveys:•Non-EU OECD countries: Switzerland (Construction and Services: 7 over 10 and 5 over 9) and

New Zealand (Retail: 7 over 10)•OECD enhanced engaged economies & OECD accession countries: South Africa (Construction & Retail)

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Consumer surveys in Non-EU OECD countries:

Coverage and Format of questions

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Consumer SurveyOECD-EU

Harmonised System

Canada USA Mexico Australia New Zealand Japan Switzerland Turkey

Source CBOC UM INEGI/BM MIAESR WB BOJ SECO TSIFinancial situation: present T12 T6 T12 T12 T12 T12 T12 T12 T6Financial situation: future tendency

F12 F6 F12 F12 F12 F12 F12 F6

General economic situation: present

T12 T12 T12 T12 T12 T12 T3

General economic situation: future tendency

F12 F12 F12 F12 F12 & 5Y F12 F12 F3

Consumer prices: present T12 T12 T12Consumer prices: future tendency

F12 F12 F12 F12 & 5Y F12 F12

Unemployment: future tendency

F12 F6* F12 F12 L* F6*

Major purchases of durable consumer goods: current environment

S S S T12 S S S S

Major purchases intentions: future tendency

F12 F12 F12 F3 & F6

Saving: current environment S SSaving intentions: future tendency

F12 F6

Capacity to save S SPurchase a car: future tendency

F12 F6

Purchase a house: future tendency

F12 F12

Home improvements: future tendency

F12 F6

Legend:CBOC The Conference Board of Canada WB Westpac BankUM The University of Michigan BOJ Bank of JapanINEGI National Statistical Institute of Mexico SECO State Secretariat for Economic AffairsBM Bank of Mexico TSI Turkish Statistical InstituteMIAESR Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research

Consumer surveys in OECD enhanced engagement economies and OECD accession countries:

Coverage and Format of questions

•Frequency: Majority monthly (quarterly: New Zealand, Switzerland, Turkey and South Africa)

•Coverage (necessary condition): Good (broadly speaking)

•Format (step forward): Difference mostly on the horizon

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Consumer SurveyOECD-EU

Harmonised System

Brazil Indonesia South Africa Chile Legend:

Source FGV BI BER AGFK T6 = Past/present change compared to 6 months agoFinancial situation: present T12 L T6 T12 T12 = Past/present change compared to 12 months agoFinancial situation: future tendency

F12 F6 F6 F12 F12 L = Present level

General economic situation: present

T12 L T6 L FL = Future level

General economic situation: future tendency

F12 F6 F6 F12 FL S: Statement/situation

Consumer prices: present T12 F3 = Future change for 3 months aheadConsumer prices: future tendency

F12 F3 & F6 F12 F6 = Future change for 6 months ahead

Unemployment: future tendency

F12 F6* F6* FL F12 = Future change for 12 months ahead

Major purchases of durable consumer goods: current environment

S S S S * = Employment/job secturity/job opportunity/job availablility

Major purchases intentions: future tendency

F12 F6

Saving: current environment SSaving intentions: future tendency

F12 F6

Capacity to save S S SPurchase a car: future tendency

F12 F6 S

Purchase a house: future tendency

F12 F6

Home improvements: future tendency

F12 F6

Overview of the harmonisation status of the BTS & CSin the Non EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement

economies and OECD accession countries :Introduction

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• Overview based on coverage & format

• Rough indication, no mechanical role should be applied (different importance of questions not considered)

• BTS: scale 1 to 5 1 = low harmonisation: num. harmonised questions (h) in format

are less than ⅓ of the total h < ⅓; 2 = weak harmonisation: ⅓ ≤ h ≤ ½; 3 = can be improved: ½ < h ≤ ⅔; 4 = good harmonisation: ⅔ < h < 1; 5 = perfect harmonisation.• CS: UM’s coverage as benchmark (good coverage)

Overview of the harmonisation status of the BTS & CSin the Non EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement

economies and OECD accession countries :Summary tables

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Surveys Canada USA Mexico Australia New Zealand Japan Norway Switzerland Turkey

Industry/ Manufacturing

1 1 3 4 4 1 4 4/5 1

Construction 1 3 1 4Retail trade 1 4 1 1Services 1 2 2 4Consumer 1 4 2 4 2 2 4 1

Surveys Brazil China Indonesia Russia South Africa Chile Israel

(MAI) Israel (BOI)

Industry/ Manufacturing

4 x 1 4 4 3 1 1

Construction x 1 1 1 1Retail trade x x 1 3 2 1Services x x 1 1Consumer 1 x 1 1 2Legend1 = Low harmonisation 4 = Good harmonisation2 = Weak harmonisation 5 = Full harmonisation3 = Harmonisation to be improved x = Questionnaire not available

Non-EU OECD countries

OECD enhanced engagement economies OECD accession countries

Overview of the harmonisation status of the BTS & CSin the Non EU OECD countries, OECD enhanced engagement

economies and OECD accession countries :Comments

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• Manufacturing/Industry survey: more largely conducted, most harmonised (in gen. the first BTS)

• Other surveys: increasing importance

• Coverage: necessary condition for international comparisons• Harmonisation of the format: step forward (better and easier

comparisons)Among Non-EU OECD countries: Switzerland best combination harmonisation and coverageAmong OECD enhanced engaged economies & OECD accession countries: South Africa and Chile best situations

• No English translation (at the time of the review): Indonesia (BTS), China (BTS & CS)

• No questionnaires: Retail Trade & Services for Brazil• No information from India and South Korea

Conclusions

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• Globalisation: comparisons between countries and regions crucial

• Adoption harmonised BTS and CS = further progress

• Actual analysis = Mixed picture (compare to Nilsson, 2003): Improvements: Mexico, Brazil, South Africa Step back: Canada, India Accession countries: Chile (good level)

Thank you

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