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Transcript of The 3 rd International Seville Conference on Future- Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) Impacts and...
The 3rd International Seville Conference on Future-
Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)
Impacts and implications for policy and decision making
Sandy Thomas
Foresight, Government Office for Science
FTA 2008
21st century challenges need enduring solutions
• Population
• Water resource and food production
• Energy security and supply
• Health and disease
• Environment and climate change
• Conflict and terrorism
• Sustainability
FTA 2008
Foresight Technology Assessment
helping governments to think systematically about the future so that it can develop robust policies for the 21st century
By:
•Understanding what types of futures might be possible
•Challenging presumptions
•Building a more robust approach to the future
FTA 2008
Foresight…
UK approach:
• Encompassed by FTA methods in 2003 paper
• Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA
• The Use and Impact of FTA for Policy and Decision Making
• FTA in Research and Innovation
• FTA in Security and Sustainability
FTA 2008
Foresight achieves this in 3 ways:
1. Foresight Projects: in depth studies looking at big issues 20-100 years in the future
2. Foresight Horizon Scanning Projects: smaller projects looking at more discrete issues across the entire spectrum of public policy futures 10-15 years in the future
3. Foresight Toolkits and Networks: look to build futures thinking and share best practice within and across government
FTA 2008
Previous projects
Brain Science, Addiction and
Drugs
Detection and Identification of
Infectious Diseases
Intelligent Infrastructure
Systems
Tackling Obesities:
Future Choices
CognitiveSystems
Flood and Coastal Defence
Cyber Trust and Crime Prevention
Exploiting the Electromagnetic
Spectrum
SustainableEnergy and the
Built Environment
Mental Capital and Wellbeing
FTA 2008
Who is involved?
GCSA
Coreexperts
Foresightteam
Ministerial/High LevelStakeholder
Group
Internationalcontributors
ExpertAdvisoryGroup
Stakeholders eg NGOs, RCs
Scientific &Engineering
Experts
FTA 2008
Typical project structure
Analysis and
Implica-tions
for policy
Underpinning review of evidence base
Systems mapping
Scenario development
Qualitative modelling of policy response
impact
Development of quantitative model and analysis
ActionScoping
FTA 2008
Why a project on obesity?
Source: IOTF
1994-96 1997-99 2000-02
Male
Female Data shown for England and Scotland
FTA 2008
Reviewing the evidence base
• Epidemiology
• Basic biological processes
• The eating process
• Obesity determinants
• Behaviour change
• Activity environment
• Intervention strategies for prevention & treatment
• Lessons learned
• Policy & economic context
• Social & cultural context
• International context
• Ethics
FTA 2008
Numbers of obese overtake healthy weight around 2016
Data source: HSE
Obese
Healthy
2007 205050%
Quantitative analysis (Adult females)
FTA 2008
Systems map
Societal influencesIndividual psychology
Biology
Activity environment
Individual activityFood
ConsumptionFood Production
7 major sub-systems
FTA 2008
ValuesIndividual Social
RESPONSES
anticipation and preparation for change
react when the need to change is critical, focus on mitigation of impact.
Scenario 1
Scenario 3
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
Scenario DevelopmentKey uncertainty 1: Societal valuesKey uncertainty 2: How we respond to challenges
FTA 2008Response Options SC1 SC2 SC3 SC4
BUILT ENVIRONMENT & TRANSPORT
Health planning criteria in all procedures
Improve perceptions of safety
Increase walkability and cyclability
HEALTH
Targeted interventions
Population interventions
Focus on consequences
RESEARCH
Invest in post-hoc solution
Evaluation toolkits
FISCAL
Tax obesity promoting food
All organisations responsible for employee health
Individually targeted fiscal measures
EDUCATION
Food literacy and skills programmes
REGULATION
Control food exposure
SOCIAL STRUCTURE
Directive approach to changing cultural norm
Technology to support individual choice
FAMILY
Early life intervention
Penalise parents for unhealthy children
Impact on future obesity
FTA 2008
Impact - typical project outputs
• Comprehensive evidence base
• Visions of possible futures
• Implications for policy
• Follow up to achieve action
FTA 2008
UK impacts
Flooding project
• Examined future flood risks and how Government should respond. Annual costs of £20 billion 2080
Impacts:
• HMT increased the annual budget for flood defence by c.£300m; The approach has now been adopted internationally to assess long term flood risks.
FTA 2008
• Revised obesity target to reflect a broader ambition to achieve and maintain a healthy weight
• Established dedicated Obesity Unit within government reporting to a cross-departmental Ministerial Group and Cabinet Committee
• Obesity Unit supported by external Expert Advisory Group, Obesity Observatory and a Delivery Group
• Plans to establish a National Partnership with stakeholders
• Cross-government obesity strategy - Healthy Weight, Healthy Lives informed by the Foresight report
The government response to obesity:
FTA 2008
Impact
Influencing government policy:
• Improving the robustness of existing policies by acting as a stimulating challenge: UK Futures: Society & Economy 2030 (work in progress)
Influencing research agendas:
• Investment in research, technology and systems development for detection of infectious diseases: Detection and Identification of Infectious Diseases
• Cognitive Sciences Research Programme
FTA 2008
Global impacts
Infectious Diseases project
• Analysed how the threat from diseases will change in the future and how to respond. Strategic links
Impacts
• On the Russian G8 summit Declaration on Infectious Diseases
• TSB £55M for diagnostics
• Southern African research network; African Union
FTA 2008
Global impacts
EU
•Nutrition Platform
•European Centre for Disease Control
•Networking eg EFMN
China - Taihu Basin flooding project
Canadian Animal Health Strategy
US Centre for Disease Control and Prevention
FTA 2008
Current projects
• Mental Capital and Wellbeing (MCW)
• Sustainable Energy Management and the Built Environment (SEMBE)- Sustainability, Security
• Land Use Futures (LUF) - Sustainability
• Future of Food and Farming - Sustainability
FTA 2008
Horizon scanning is…
Beyond a ‘single expected future’
to a ‘range of possible futures’ to consider implications for today’s decisions
Looking ahead – beyond usual timescales
Looking across – beyond usual sources
FTA 2008
Evidential tools for HSC
Delta Scan:cutting-edge S&T
perspectives
www.deltascan.org
Sigma Scan:synthesis of
global futures work
www.sigmascan.org
Outsights / Ipsos
MO
RI
Inst
itute
for
the
Fut
ure
FTA 2008
Current HSC projects
• International Futures Project
• UK Futures: Society & economy 2030
• Future of Families 2030
• Future of Communities
• Wider Implications of Science and Technology (WIST)
• Future of Local Services to the Public
FTA 2008
Challenges
•Achieving impact
•Focus on long term
•FTA Methodologies
•More social science
•Sharing best practice
FTA 2008
Conclusion
• Foresight increasingly accepted in policy making
• Foresight is respected for its strategic impact on policy, through evidence based, peer reviewed analysis
• A key role in helping government think beyond the short term to identify enduring solutions