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The 27th Annual ConferenceInternational Association for Impact Assessment
3-9 June 2007, COEX Convention Center, Seoul, Korea
Jae-Uk KIM, Dong-Kun LEE(Seoul National University, Korea)
5 June, 2007
Prediction of Plant Communities Using Regional Climate Model in Korea
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1. Backgrounds
2. Objectives
3. Materials
4. Methods
5. Results and Discussion
6. Conclusion
Contents
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Global mean temperature near the Earth's surface rose 0.74±0.18°C during the past century.
Climate models referenced by the IPCC project that global surface temperatures are likely to increase by 1.1 to 6.4 °C between 1990 and 2100.
The effects of global warming is becoming more apparent on various parts of the world including dynamics in natural ecosystems.
Backgrounds
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Backgrounds
① Camellia japonica L.
①
② Sasa quelpaertensis Nakai
② 1996
2000
2005
③ Quercusmongolica
③
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To choose a suitable climate model in the Korea
To verify connection between plant communities and environmental factors
To predict potential distribution of Pinus densiflora, Quercus Spp., Alpine Plants and Evergreen Broad-Leaved Plants
To assess a vulnerable area in climate change
Objectives
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Methods I
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Methods IIGHCN
Temp., Prep.(1981~1990)
IDW
Precipitation Temperature
mm/Monthly
mm/daily
10yr means(1981~1990)
IPCC SRES Scenarios
GCMs(1981~1990)
Data Input
NIES-RAMSRCM
(1981~1990)
Data Input
10yr means(1981~1990)
10yr means(1981~1990)
Correlation analysis
Selection of Climate model
IDW IDW
10yr menas(1981~1990)
10yr means (1981~1990)
10yr means(1981~1990)
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Methods III
Pinus densiflora, Quercus SppAlpine Plants,
Evergreen Broad-Leaved PlantsTopography
CurrentClimate
Statistical analysis( Correlation / Logistic )
Verification EquationNo Yes
Future Climate
Potential distribution of Communities
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Materials-Climate Models
AcronymCenter SRES scenarioModel Time period
NIES/RAMSNational Institute for
Environmental Studies(NIES)
NIES/RAMS RCM
1981-19902041-2050
HCCPRHadley Centre forClimate Prediction
and ResearchHadCM3 1950-2099A2 B2
CSIROAustralia’s CommonWealth Scientific andIndustrial Research
OrganizationCSIRO-Mk2 1990-2100A1 A2 B1 B2
CCCmaCanadian Center for
Climate Modeling and Analysis
CGCM2 1900-2100A2 B2
CCSR/NIES
Center for ClimateResearch Studies
(CCSR)National Institute for
Environmental Studies(NIES)
CCSR/NIES AGCM
+CCSR OGCM1890-2100A1 A2 B1 B2
A2
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Materials-Climate ModelsCCSR-NIES CGCM2
CSIRO-Mk2 HadCM3
NIES-RAMS
General Circulation Model Regional Climate Model
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Materials-SRES
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Dominant
CommunitiesRatio (%)
Pinus densiflora 56.2
Quercus Spp. 30.4
Alpine Plants 0.26
Evergreen
Broad-Leaved Plants0.16
Total : 170 communities
Materials-Plant communities
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Materials-Plant communities
Dominant CommunitiesPinus
densifloraPinus densiflora (1)
Quercus Spp.Quercus acutissima, Quercus aliena, Quercus dentata, Quercus grosseserrata, Quercus mongolica, Quercus serrata, Quercus variabilis (7)
Alpine Plants
Abies holophylla, Abies koreana, Abies nephrolepis, Betula ermanii, Betula platyphylla, Empetrum nigrum var. japonicum, Juniperus chinensis var. sargentii, Juniperus rigida, Pinus koraiensis, Pinus pumila, Rhododendron mucronulatum var. ciliatum, Taxus cuspidata, Thuja koraiensis, Thuja orientalis L. (14)
EvergreenBroad-Leaved
Plants
Castanopsis cuspidata var. sieboldii, Castanopsis cuspidata var. thunbergii, Camellia japonica L., Cinnamomum japonicum, Daphniphyllum macropodum, Elaeagnus macrophylla, Ilex integra, Litsea japonica, Machilus thunbergii, Quercus acuta, Quercus myrsinaefolia (11)
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Categories Factors (16)
ClimateMean temperature (yearly, January, August, Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter), Total precipitation (yearly, Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter)
Topography Elevation
Index Warmth index, Coldness index, Holdridge index
Materials-Environmental factors
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Temperature
Results-Current climate (1971~2000)
Precipitation
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HADCM3 GCM CSIRO-Mk2 GCM CGCM2 GCM CCSR/NIES GCM
Results-Future climate (2050)
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NIES/RAMS RCM (Temperature)
Results-Future climate (2050)
NIES/RAMS RCM (Precipitation)
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Results-4GCMs vs 1RCM (1981~1990)
Temperature Precipitation
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Ranges Means
Area 56.2 %
Elevation (m) 1~1,492 312.1
Mean temperature
(℃)1.5~14.8 10.5
Total precipitation
( ㎜ )971.2~1,741.5 1,252.3
Warmth index (month·℃)
34.3~120.3 89.3
Results-Pinus densiflora
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Results-Pinus densiflora
Pinus densiflora = 0.0015×DEM – 0.00252×Ptotal + 0.0175×Tdjf + 1.8593
Present (1990) Simulated (1971~2000)
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Results-Pinus densifloraNIESRAMSPredicted (2041~2050)
CCSRNIESPredicted (2041~2050)
CRIRO-Mk2Predicted (2041~2050)
HADCM3Predicted (2041~2050)
CGCM2Predicted (2041~2050)
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Results-Pinus densiflora
Ratio (%)
MoreReduced
17.5
Reduced 32.2
No change 49.6
Expanded 0.6
MoreExpanded
0.0
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Ranges Means
Area 30.4 %
Elevation (m) 1~1,641 509.3
Mean temperature
(℃)2.0~15.9 9.0
Total precipitation
( ㎜ )973.6~1,809.9 1,298.4
Warmth index (month·℃)
36.8~130.7 79.4
Results-Quercus Spp.
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Results-Quercus Spp.Present (1990) Simulated (1971~2000)
Quercus Spp. = 0.2405×CI – 0.00461×DEM – 1.0309×Tmin – 1.3920
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Results-Quercus Spp.CCSRNIESPredicted (2041~2050)
CGCM2Predicted (2041~2050)
CRIRO-Mk2Predicted (2041~2050)
HADCM3Predicted (2041~2050)
NIESRAMSPredicted (2041~2050)
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Results-Quercus Spp.
Ratio (%)
MoreReduced
5.7
Reduced 6.9
No change 83.4
Expanded 1.3
MoreExpanded
2.8
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ranges means
Area 0.26 %
Elevation (m) 86~1,824 1,024.1
Mean temperature
(℃)1.2~15.9 5.7
Total precipitation
( ㎜ )1,019.2~1,837.7 1,346.7
Warmth index (month·℃)
30.9~130.6 57.3
Results-Alpine Plants
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Results-Alpine PlantsPresent (1990) Simulated (1971~2000)
Alpine plants = 0.2586×WI + 0.00434×DEM – 0.0029×Ttotal – 1.8873×Tmam – 10.8265
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Results-Alpine PlantsCCSRNIESPredicted (2041~2050)
CGCM2Predicted (2041~2050)
HADCM3Predicted (2041~2050)
CRIRO-Mk2Predicted (2041~2050)
NIESRAMSPredicted (2041~2050)
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Results-Alpine Plants
Ratio (%)
MoreReduced
1.5
Reduced 1.9
No change 96.0
Expanded 0.6
MoreExpanded
-
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ranges means
Area 0.16 %
Elevation (m) 1~626 197.4
Mean temperature
(℃)10.9~16.3 13.4
Total precipitation
( ㎜ )960.8~1,853.1 1,374.5
Warmth index (month·℃)
84.9~135.4 106.1
Results-Evergreen Broad-Leaved Plants
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Results-Evergreen Broad-Leaved PlantsPresent (1990) Simulated (1971~2000)
Evergreen Broad-Leaved Plants = 0.6503×CI – 0.7949×Tmin
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Results-Evergreen Broad-Leaved PlantsCCSRNIESPredicted (2041~2050)
CGCM2Predicted (2041~2050)
CRIRO-Mk2Predicted (2041~2050)
HADCM3Predicted (2041~2050)
NIESRAMSPredicted (2041~2050)
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Results-Evergreen Broad-Leaved Plants
Ratio (%)
MoreReduced
0.3
Reduced 0.3
No change 89.7
Expanded 5.3
MoreExpanded
4.4
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Results-vulnerable area
Ratio (%)
Morereduced Grade 1 2.8
Grade 2 3.3
Grade 3 15.0
Grade 4 33.9No
change Grade 5 34.2
Grade 6 5.6
Grade 7 4.9
Grade 8 0.2More
expanded Grade 9 0.0
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Conclusion
Achievements
To challenges associated with predicting and assessing the future climate using RCM distribution of communities to climate change in Korea
Limitations and Considerations
To examine the potential distribution of communities by correlating the environmental factors without reflecting the natural succession processes
Variabilities of multiple RCM output results under various climate change scenarios were not sufficiently considered
Ground truth field surveys to enhance the accuracy of the results were not conducted