THE 2017 CEFOR NOMIS OCEAN HULL REPORT reports/2017/2017 Cefor... · The Nordic Marine Insurance...

THE 2017 CEFOR NOMIS OCEAN HULL REPORT(VESSELS WITH REGISTERED IMO NUMBER)

Nordic Marine Insurance Statistics as of 31 December 2017

OCEAN HULL REPORT – INCLUDED DATA

• Underwriting years 1996-2017

• Vessels with a registered IMO-number.

(For statistics on small coastal tonnage, see

«The 2017 Cefor NoMIS COASTAL Hull report»)

• If not indicated otherwise on the slide, figures are presented

‐ on accident year basis (claims allocated to the calendar year in

which the claim occurred).

‐ as reported by 31 December 2017 (i.e. without IBNR loading for

claims not yet registered or incurred by this date).

Introduction (Contents / NoMIS history / Definitions)

Page 9 Cefor position in the global hull insurance market 2016/

Cefor hull insurance market 2017/ Cefor share of World fleet

Page 12 Key figures – NoMIS ‘Ocean’ portfolio

Page 27 Key figures – by age group

3 Key figures – by vessel type group

Page 39 Key figures – by size group

Page 45 Key figures – by sum insured layers

Key figures: Breakdown of number of vessels – Claims frequency – Claim cost per vessel/

per Sum Insured/ per gross ton – Average claim cost

OCEAN HULL REPORT – CONTENTSNoMISNordic Marine

Insurance Statistics

Breakdown by flag and classification society

•Number of vessels by flag, 16 largest

•Number of vessels by classification society, 6 largest

Page 53 Exposure curves

•Sum Insured bands

(<5, <20, <100, and >100 MUSD; for partial claims / all claims)

•Explanations

Page 56 – Cost Driving Factors Inflation Index (by date of loss)

Legal disclaimer Cefor provides the statistics material in this presentation for general information purposes only. All key

figures are derived from the Cefor portfolio, which reflects a minor part of the world fleet, the selection of ships being

biased by Nordic underwriting preferences. Therefore Cefor can accept no responsibility and shall not be liable for any

loss which may arise from reliance upon the information provided.

With reference to Commission Regulation (EC) No 267/2010 on the application of Article 101(3) and the European

Commission's Guidelines for the Assessment of Horizontal Agreements (the "Horizontal Guidelines”), we further

stress that the statistical data presented in this publication is non-binding in its character.

OCEAN HULL REPORT – CONTENTS

4

NoMISNordic Marine


The Nordic Marine Insurance Statistics (NoMIS) is a joint database project of Cefor members active in the Hull & Machinery

market to compile insurance data and vessel characteristics for statistical purposes, administered by Cefor.

From its foundation in 1985 until 1997, the data was compiled by appointing Cefor a facultative reinsurer to which members

of the Norwegian Hull Agreement ceded 0.1% of their H&M insurance. Premium and claims information was exchanged via

Borderaux, the lead insurer providing details of each claim.

In 1996, the hull agreement was discontinued, but the statistics cooperation continued.

In 1998, steps were taken to update the NoMIS’ database electronically instead of manually. From December 1999, Cefor

could produce up-to-date hull figures on regular basis. The scope of reporting was extended substantially by including non-

lead business.

From 2000, also business back to underwriting year 1995 was updated electronically. In the following years, several new

major Cefor members joined the NoMIS cooperation, reporting retrospective data from 1995 underwriting year.

In 2009, data from Gjensidige and Tryg was integrated, dating back to underwriting years 2000 and 2003 respectively.

In 2012, data from Alandia was added, starting with underwriting year 2005. Further, If extended their scope of reporting to

include all Nordic business.

In 2015, the reporting format was modernized and the database migrated to a new technical platform.

In 2016, data from Skuld was added, dating back to underwriting year 2011.

From 2016, all member report according to the modernized reporting format.

By 31st December 2016, in all 262,853 vessel-years and 73,404 claims were registered on underwriting years 1985 through

2017 for the ‘ocean’ hull portfolio (vessels with IMO number).

The NoMIS statistics in this report comprise data from the following marine insurers: Alandia, Bluewater (until 2008), Codan,

Gjensidige, If, Gard, NEMI (until 2009), Norwegian Hull Club, Skuld, The Swedish Club, Tryg (until 2009), Zurich (until 2002).

THE NORDIC MARINE INSURANCE DATABASE

5

All amounts are presented in USD.

Rate of exchange applicable to convert the figures from the original currencies into USD:

Insured values: av. rate of exchange of the month the insurance coverage gets into force

Paid claims: av. rate of exchange of the month of the payment transaction

Outstanding claims: av. rate of exchange of December 2017

Underwriting year = year in which the insurance policy attaches

All claims are net of any applicable deductibles.

Total Claims = Paid claims + Outstanding claims

TLO (total losses) = claims in excess of 75% of the Sum Insured1

Partial Losses = all claims <= 75% of the Sum Insured

IBNR (”Incurred but not reported”) = reserve for claims adjustments and registration backlog

OCEAN HULL REPORT – DEFINITIONS

6

NoMISNordic Marine


1 According to Clause 11-3 of the Nordic Marine Insurance Plan, a constructive total loss (CTL) is defined as a claim exceeding 80% of the sum insured

(www.nordicplan.org). To cater for currency conversion issues, the Cefor Statistics Forum includes in its total loss statistics all claims exceeding 75% of the sum insured.

Types of vessels specified

Vessel Type group Vessels Types included Lloyd’s List Intelligence Code

BULK Bulk, Ore, Cement BAC, BBU, BCB, BCE, BOR, BWC

CAR/RORO Car Carrier, RoRo MVE, URC, URR

CARGO Dry Cargo, General Cargo, Reefers, GCT, GGC, GPC, GRF, MLV

Pallett Vessels, Animal Transport Vessels

CHEM./PRODUCT Chemical Carriers, Product / Acid / Edible Oil / TAC, TCH, TCO, TEO, TFJ, TFO

Fish Oil / Fruit Juice / Wine / Molasses / TMO, TPD, TWA, TWN, TWT

Waste/ Water Tankers

CONTAINER Container UCC, UCR

FISHING Fishing vessels FFC, FFF, FFP, FFS, FTR,FWF,FWH

LNG/LPG Gas Carriers LNG, LPG, LNG/LPG LBK, LCN, LNG, LPG, LNP

OTHER any other ships and floating units, any codes not specifically defined otherwise,

like Barges, Cranes, Floating Storage, Floating Production, Pollution Control

Vessels, Mud boat, OBO, Research vessels, Cable, Seismic Search vessel, Flo/Flo, etc.

OCEAN HULL REPORT - DEFINITIONSNoMISNordic Marine


7

Types of vessels specified contd.

Vessel Type group Vessels included Lloyd’ List Intelligence Code

PASSENGER All types of passenger vessels and ferries, LOF, LOP, MPR, OFY, OHF, OHS,

Passenger/Roro, Highspeed Craft PRR, PZZ

SUPPL./OFF. Supply, Anchorhandling, Standby, Drilling OBS, OBT, ODS, OIB, OIF, OIS,

Vessel, General Service Vessel, OIT, OLT, OMN, OMT, OOS, OPP,

Supply (Tug, Anchor), Tug/Icebreaker ORP, OSU, OSY, OSZ, OWO,

XAA, XAF, XAG, XAH, XAT, XCT,

XFF, XFS, XFT, XPT, XTG, XTI,

XTP, XTR, XTS, XTT, XTX

TANK Tanker, Sludge Vessel, Crude Oil Tanker OSC, OTC, TAS, TBK, TCR, TNA,

Asphalt Carriers, Bunkering Tanker, Naval Auxiliary TRR, TTA, TUV

Excluded from the statistics in this report are the following offshore energy units:

LFP, LFR, LFS, LGP, LPS, TPD, TFP, TFS, YDP, YDS

OCEAN HULL REPORT – DEFINITIONS NoMISNordic Marine


8

Brazil1.0%

China10.9%

France4.0%

Germany1.4%Italy

3.8%

Japan7.8%

Korea, Republic of

2.8%

Latin America5.2%

Netherlands1.8%

Singapore11.8%

Spain

1.6%

USA

3.7%

Other13.4%

UK (IUA)5.4%

UK (Lloyd's)17.3%

Nordic (Cefor)8.1%

Alandia Insurance

5.3% Codan6.5%

Gard

30.7%

Fender Marine0.9%HDI Global

(Norge)6.4%

Gjensidige4.0%If

5.7%

Møretrygd

1.6%

Norwegian Hull Club

22.7%

The Swedish Club9.4%

Skuld6.3%

Tromstrygd0.7%

Breakdown of Global Marine Hull* Premium 2016

World Cefor

* «Hull» premium on this slide includes both ocean and coastal hull business for all hull-related insurance types

(Hull, hull interest, freight interest, loss of hire, builder’s risk, fishing (catch & gear)).

** Lloyd’s premium includes proportional and facultative reinsurance. Other countries’ premium includes only direct business.

Sources: IUMI ‘Global Marine Insurance Report’ by Astrid Seltmann, published September 2017, and Cefor Annual Report 2016

**

9

Gard

31.3%

Norwegian Hull Club

26.1%

Skuld

10.1%

The Swedish Club7.8%

Codan6.0%

If5.9%

Alandia Insurance

5.5%

Gjensidige4.0%

Møretrygd

1.5%

Fender Marine1.2%

Tromstrygd

0.7%

Breakdown of Cefor Marine Hull* Premium 2017

* Total amount including DNK war risk premium. The premium breakdown in the graph on this slide includes both ocean and coastal hull

business for all hull-related insurance types (Hull, hull interest, freight interest, loss of hire, builder’s risk, fishing (catch & gear)).

All following statistics are pure Hull & Machinery statistics based on vessels with IMO-number only, and EXCLUDE loss of hire, hull/freight

interest, builder’s risk. For claims trends for small craft & fishing vessels check ‘The Cefor NoMIS COASTAL Hull report 2017’

Total Cefor marine hull* premium 2017:

571.4 USD million

10

Source: Cefor Annual Report 2017

Cefor market participation as % of World Fleet – IMO-number ships > 1,000 gross ton

1) “Cefor share” calculated as the number of vessels partly or wholly covered by Cefor members in underwriting years 2016 & 2017,

divided by the total number of ships with registered IMO-number in the world fleet. World fleet count as according to Lloyd’s List

Intelligence “World Fleet Update” as of January 2018.

1)

THE CEFOR FLEET AS OF 2017 NoMISNordic Marine


11

Gross tonnage

Year of build 1000-3999 4000-6999 7000-10000 >10000 Grand Total

Cefor share2012-2017 13.7% 24.0% 16.9% 45.4% 35.2%

2007-2011 13.5% 23.7% 35.4% 48.2% 34.3%

2002-2006 11.8% 19.6% 36.1% 54.6% 34.1%

1997-2001 17.7% 19.6% 25.3% 46.9% 31.8%

1992-1996 9.5% 11.1% 15.2% 30.4% 16.2%

1987-1991 6.7% 11.5% 15.1% 23.9% 10.9%

<1987 or unknown 3.9% 4.3% 6.5% 15.1% 5.3%

World fleet2012-2017 2,754 1,059 576 8,058 12,447

2007-2011 3,350 1,492 1,202 8,026 14,070

2002-2006 2,047 710 590 4,166 7,513

1997-2001 1,541 767 349 2,755 5,412

1992-1996 1,744 616 287 1,274 3,921

1987-1991 1,840 509 196 548 3,093

<1987 or unknown 7,877 1,685 549 1,371 11,482

Total Cefor share 9.5% 16.1% 24.8% 45.1% 25.9%

Total World fleet 21,153 6,838 3,749 26,198 57,938

OCEAN HULL – NUMBER OF VESSELS

as of 31 December 2017

NoMISNordic Marine


12

5,869

6,8297,293

6,9666,573

6,9737,564

8,312

9,574

10,656

11,886

13,130

12,327

10,509

9,679

10,790

13,257

15,154

16,10915,99015,50615,714

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

Number of vessels, by year of exposure

Includes all insured vessels per underwriting year (renewed & new business).

OCEAN HULL – INSURED VALUES


NoMISNordic Marine


13

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

Average sum insured, by underwriting year

Includes all insured vessels per underwriting year (renewed and new business).

OCEAN HULL – INDEX


NoMISNordic Marine


14

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

Evolution of average Sum insured and gross ton1995=100%

Index Average Sum Insured Index Average gross ton

5.9%

2.3%

8.7%

2.4%

-14.8%

-7.9%

-4.3%

-6.4%-6.2%-6.0%

-9.3%-7.4%

-5.2%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Based on renewals only in respective year, i.e. excluding new business. In stable market conditions, one

would expect to see some reduction in the insured value on renewed vessels due to the aging factor.

OCEAN HULL – AVERAGE CHANGE IN

INSURED VALUES ON RENEWAL


NoMISNordic Marine


15

OCEAN HULL – AGE


NoMISNordic Marine


16

13.0

13.5

13.914.1

14.0 14.1 14.113.9

13.7

13.313.4

13.213.4

13.2

12.9

12.011.9 11.8

12.0 12.0 12.1

12.4

13.2

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

Average age, by underwriting year

Includes all insured vessels per underwriting year (renewed and new business).

OCEAN HULL - DEDUCTIBLES


NoMISNordic Marine


17

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Average Std. Deductible 187,162 156,251 144,210 136,608 138,515 136,761 143,697 139,448 123,841 126,495 126,970 144,691 143,654 160,025 183,157 189,150 182,253 179,079 217,095 216,873 172,337 179,421 185,710

Av.Std. Ded. <= 500,000 USD 112,879 114,254 104,520 111,240 109,187 106,041 102,993 107,851 108,864 112,195 112,330 110,058 117,346 118,882 126,940 128,996 139,606 142,047 144,208 143,148 139,024 133,155 135,438

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Average Standard Deductible (USD), by underwriting year

Average Std. Deductible Av.Std. Ded. <= 500,000 USD

Claim bands:

OCEAN HULL – CLAIM PER VESSEL


NoMISNordic Marine


1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

> 50 MUSD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6,903 0 13,239 4,120 0 0 11,864 0 29,515 7,843 4,966 3,183 0 0

30 <= 50 MUSD 6,425 0 0 9,613 0 0 9,311 0 0 0 5,680 13,971 3,731 3,851 0 6,586 11,015 0 2,483 2,439 0 0

10 <= 30 MUSD 5,828 5,888 9,396 9,094 3,071 7,241 8,761 6,806 17,013 6,707 14,883 20,056 14,516 8,442 5,450 4,084 6,094 13,906 5,461 13,258 4,690 9,112

5 <= 10 MUSD 9,011 10,504 7,207 9,877 11,547 3,944 6,244 4,047 7,728 15,059 8,935 9,669 9,936 6,836 5,242 6,706 6,245 10,184 7,640 8,096 4,048 4,641

1 <= 5 MUSD 23,498 22,294 18,799 18,331 15,390 20,970 18,339 17,264 24,472 19,328 24,958 27,179 28,285 25,109 19,030 18,065 18,455 18,100 16,669 19,441 15,973 12,749

<= 1 MUSD 23,698 21,038 22,805 20,430 20,813 22,469 21,144 21,869 22,988 25,511 28,001 31,871 31,241 25,618 25,326 25,948 20,194 20,798 20,687 22,111 20,088 17,265

IBNR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 263 7,648

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

USD Claim per vessel, by date of loss

40.9%

2.3%11.0%

20.6%

8.5%

2.0%

14.7%

2012-2016

Machinery

Fire/Explosion

Collision

Contact

Grounding

Heavy weather

Other / unknown

42.3%

2.2%10.4%

19.0%

9.0%

1.6%

15.5%

2017

Machinery

Fire/Explosion

Collision

Contact

Grounding

Heavy weather

Other / unknown

Breakdown of number of claims by type of claim

Total number of claims:

2012-2016: 16,926 2017: 2,898


NoMISNordic Marine


OCEAN HULL – CLAIMS BY TYPEPAID & OUTSTANDING AS REPORTED, NO IBNR RESERVE ADDED

33.5%

13.6%

11.9%

7.5%

20.0%

2.5%

11.0%

2012-2016

Machinery

Fire/Explosion

Collision

Contact

Grounding

Heavy weather

Other / unknown

43.2%

10.5%7.0%

10.5%

20.2%

1.3%

7.3%

2017

Machinery

Fire/Explosion

Collision

Contact

Grounding

Heavy weather

Other / unknown

Breakdown of claims cost by type of claim

OCEAN HULL – CLAIMS BY TYPEPAID & OUTSTANDING AS REPORTED, NO IBNR RESERVE ADDED

Total cost of claims in USD million:

2012-2016: 5,009.8 2017: 687.8


NoMISNordic Marine


1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

all claims 30.1 30.0 33.6 32.3 30.6 28.7 29.7 28.8 29.9 29.5 29.7 31.5 32.3 27.0 24.6 26.0 22.8 23.0 22.6 22.9 22.6 22.1

> 10,000 USD 13.5 12.9 14.3 14.1 12.9 13.4 13.1 13.6 14.2 14.7 15.3 16.7 16.7 13.4 12.9 13.4 11.7 12.0 11.7 12.0 11.3 11.2

>500,000 USD 2.69 2.26 2.19 2.02 1.89 2.12 2.05 1.92 2.56 2.50 3.05 3.43 3.36 2.84 2.51 2.66 2.13 2.32 2.16 2.41 2.12 1.73

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Claims frequency by date of loss (%)

Comment: Claims < 10.000 USD account for about half of all claims. Registration of these may vary over time

and by company and will thus influence the registered frequency. In addition any increase/decrease of

insurance deductibles will have impact on the registered frequency

OCEAN HULL – CLAIMS FREQUENCYINCL. IBNR RESERVE FOR FREQUENCY OF PARTIAL CLAIMS


NoMISNordic Marine



NoMISNordic Marine


OCEAN HULL – CLAIMS FREQUENCYINCL. IBNR RESERVE FOR FREQUENCY OF PARTIAL CLAIMS

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

all claims (left axis) 30.1% 30.0% 33.6% 32.3% 30.6% 28.7% 29.7% 28.8% 29.9% 29.5% 29.7% 31.5% 32.3% 27.0% 24.6% 26.0% 22.8% 23.0% 22.6% 22.9% 22.6% 22.1%

partial claims (left axis) 29.8% 29.8% 33.4% 32.1% 30.3% 28.6% 29.5% 28.7% 29.7% 29.4% 29.5% 31.3% 32.2% 26.9% 24.5% 26.0% 22.7% 22.9% 22.5% 22.8% 22.6% 22.0%

TLO claims (right axis) 0.24% 0.18% 0.19% 0.14% 0.21% 0.16% 0.20% 0.11% 0.17% 0.11% 0.14% 0.14% 0.11% 0.13% 0.04% 0.05% 0.08% 0.09% 0.06% 0.13% 0.06% 0.09%

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

Claims frequency by date of loss


NoMISNordic Marine


OCEAN HULL – CLAIM PER VESSELINCL. IBNR RESERVE FOR PARTIAL CLAIMS

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

all claims 68,459 59,724 58,207 67,346 50,822 54,624 63,799 49,987 79,104 66,606 95,696 106,86 87,709 69,856 66,912 61,388 91,517 70,831 57,906 68,528 45,046 50,463

partial claims 49,385 47,105 48,407 61,326 38,841 45,376 45,087 42,062 60,944 60,097 70,041 89,238 75,960 59,646 57,813 55,080 49,506 62,200 49,254 55,717 42,240 45,017

TLO claims 19,074 12,619 9,800 6,020 11,981 9,248 18,712 7,925 18,160 6,509 25,655 17,628 11,749 10,210 9,099 6,309 42,011 8,631 8,652 12,810 2,806 5,445

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Claim per vessel by date of loss (USD)


NoMISNordic Marine


OCEAN HULL – CLAIM PER INS. VALUEINCL. IBNR RESERVE FOR PARTIAL CLAIMS

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

all claims 0.39 0.36 0.31 0.34 0.25 0.25 0.29 0.22 0.33 0.26 0.34 0.34 0.26 0.19 0.18 0.17 0.27 0.22 0.18 0.22 0.15 0.17

partial claims 0.28 0.28 0.25 0.31 0.19 0.21 0.20 0.19 0.26 0.23 0.25 0.29 0.22 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.19 0.15 0.17 0.14 0.15

TLO claims 0.11 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.06 0.04 0.08 0.03 0.07 0.02 0.09 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.12 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.00 0.01

0.000%

0.050%

0.100%

0.150%

0.200%

0.250%

0.300%

0.350%

0.400%

0.450%

Claim per Sum Insured by date of loss (%)


NoMISNordic Marine


OCEAN HULL – CLAIM PER GROSS TONINCL. IBNR RESERVE FOR PARTIAL CLAIMS

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

all claims 2.46 2.24 2.20 2.41 1.75 1.88 2.21 1.75 2.79 2.38 3.42 3.85 3.15 2.38 2.15 1.94 2.92 2.20 1.75 2.03 1.29 1.43

partial claims 1.77 1.77 1.83 2.20 1.34 1.56 1.56 1.47 2.15 2.15 2.50 3.22 2.73 2.03 1.85 1.74 1.58 1.93 1.49 1.65 1.21 1.27

TLO claims 0.69 0.47 0.37 0.22 0.41 0.32 0.65 0.28 0.64 0.23 0.92 0.64 0.42 0.35 0.29 0.20 1.34 0.27 0.26 0.38 0.08 0.15

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

Claim per gross ton by date of loss (USD)


NoMISNordic Marine


OCEAN HULL – AVERAGE CLAIM COSTINCL. IBNR RESERVE FOR PARTIAL CLAIMS

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

all claims 227,640 199,149 173,267 208,675 166,355 190,163 215,050 173,338 264,610 225,541 322,583 339,411 271,514 258,406 272,450 236,054 401,154 307,981 256,721 299,298 199,121 228,432

excl. total losses 165,527 157,996 144,924 190,872 128,030 158,840 153,001 146,406 205,009 204,279 237,245 284,664 235,972 221,731 235,797 212,174 217,795 271,463 218,906 244,686 187,199 204,607

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

Average claim cost per individual claim (USD) by date of loss

29.4%

25.9%

16.7%

11.4%

16.5%

0.1%

2012-2016

0-5 years

5-10 years

10-15 years

15-20 years

20-100 years

> 100 years

21.6%

30.7%19.2%

12.1%

16.3%

0.1%

2017

0-5 years

5-10 years

10-15 years

15-20 years

20-100 years

> 100 years

Breakdown of vessels by age group, by year of exposure

OCEAN HULL – BY AGE GROUP

Total number of vessels:

2012-2016: 76,016 2017: 15,714


NoMISNordic Marine


Comment: Claims < 10.000 USD account for about half of all claims. Registration of these may vary over

time and by company and will thus influence the registered frequency. In addition any increase/decrease

of insurance deductibles will have impact on the registered frequency


NoMISNordic Marine

Insurance StatisticsOCEAN HULL – BY AGE GROUPPAID & OUTSTANDING AS REPORTED, NO IBNR RESERVE ADDED

0-5 years 5-10 years10-15

years

15-20

years

20-100

years

2012-2014 0.20 0.23 0.27 0.27 0.19

2015-2017 0.19 0.23 0.25 0.26 0.19

2012-2017 0.19 0.23 0.25 0.26 0.19

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

Claims frequency per age group


OCEAN HULL – BY AGE GROUPPAID & OUTSTANDING AS REPORTED, NO IBNR RESERVE ADDED


years

15-20

years

20-100

years

2012-2014 54,462 100,113 87,478 74,215 52,341

2015-2017 51,062 75,028 71,686 67,486 47,174

2012-2017 52,261 82,613 76,692 69,613 48,918

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Claim per vessel (USD) per age group


NoMISNordic Marine



years

15-20

years

20-100

years

2012-2014 0.115% 0.280% 0.309% 0.384% 0.463%

2015-2017 0.110% 0.215% 0.266% 0.346% 0.411%

2012-2017 0.112% 0.235% 0.280% 0.358% 0.429%

0.00%0.05%0.10%0.15%0.20%0.25%0.30%0.35%0.40%0.45%0.50%

Claim per Sum Insured (%) per age group


NoMISNordic Marine


0-5 years 5-10 years 10-15 years 15-20 years20-100

years

2012-2014 1.3 2.9 2.5 2.7 3.9

2015-2017 1.2 2.1 2.0 2.3 3.6

2012-2017 1.2 2.3 2.2 2.4 3.7

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Claim per gross ton (USD) per age group


NoMISNordic Marine



years

15-20

years

20-100

years

2012-2014 270,249 430,202 324,578 274,365 274,107

2015-2017 270,105 332,669 289,853 261,132 251,691

2012-2017 270,158 362,807 301,517 265,446 259,350

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,000

Average claim cost (USD) per age group

22%

5%

9%

13%17%

2%

4%

4%

5%

11%

8%

2011-2016

Bulk

Car/RoRo

Cargo

Chem./Prod.

Container

Fishing

LNG/LPG

Other

Passenger

Suppl./Off.

Tank

22%

4%

8%

13%

16%

3%

4%

4%

6%

12%

8%

2017

Bulk

Car/RoRo

Cargo

Chem./Prod.

Container

Fishing

LNG/LPG

Other

Passenger

Suppl./Off.

Tank

Breakdown of vessels by vessel type, by year of exposure


NoMISNordic Marine

Insurance StatisticsOCEAN HULL – BY VESSEL TYPE


2012-2016: 76,016 2017: 15,714

Bulk CargoCont./Car/

RoRoPassenger Tank Supply/Off

2012-2014 0.16 0.31 0.28 0.26 0.21 0.15

2015-2017 0.16 0.30 0.29 0.29 0.16 0.14

2012-2017 0.16 0.31 0.29 0.28 0.18 0.14

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

Claims frequency per vessel type group

”Tank” includes in this and the following slides: Chemical/Product, LNG/LPG, OBO and other tank vessels,

Claims < 10.000 USD account for about half of all claims. Registration of these may vary over time and by

company and will thus influence the registered frequency. In addition any increase/decrease of insurance

deductibles has impact on the registered frequency


NoMISNordic Marine

Insurance StatisticsOCEAN HULL – BY VESSEL TYPEPAID & OUTSTANDING AS REPORTED, NO IBNR RESERVE ADDED


NoMISNordic Marine




2012-2014 56,000 45,348 81,077 273,097 60,613 38,980

2015-2017 50,860 39,965 65,096 99,575 49,217 32,640

2012-2017 53,268 42,821 73,185 181,879 54,681 35,617

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Claim per vessel (USD) per vessel type group


NoMISNordic Marine




2012-2014 0.208% 0.362% 0.223% 0.357% 0.178% 0.155%

2015-2017 0.227% 0.398% 0.201% 0.137% 0.141% 0.140%

2012-2017 0.217% 0.377% 0.213% 0.244% 0.158% 0.147%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

Claim per Sum Insured (%) per vessel type group


NoMISNordic Marine




2012-2014 1.3 4.7 1.9 10.4 1.4 16.2

2015-2017 1.1 4.4 1.4 3.8 1.0 11.4

2012-2017 1.2 4.6 1.7 6.9 1.2 13.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Claim per gross ton (USD) per vessel type group


NoMISNordic Marine


Bulk CargoCont./Car/R

oRoPassenger Tank Supply/Off

2012-2014 341,503 146,240 287,112 1,044,520 293,375 266,325

2015-2017 324,061 132,454 225,538 337,998 299,424 227,992

2012-2017 332,423 139,862 256,369 652,174 296,178 246,203

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Average claim cost (USD) per vessel type group

9.4%

14.8%

9.8%

11.1%

14.3%

11.0%

7.4%

4.9%

8.5%

5.2%3.4%

0.3%

2012-2016

< 1,000

1,000-5,000

5,000-10,000

10,000-20,000

20,000-30,000

30,000-40,000

40,000-50,000

50,000-60,000

60,000-90,000

90,000-120,000

120,000-170,000

>= 170,000

8.8%

16.1%

9.0%

9.6%

13.8%

10.9%

8.1%

4.1%

8.5%

6.5%

4.2%0.4%

2017

< 1,000

1,000-5,000

5,000-10,000

10,000-20,000

20,000-30,000

30,000-40,000

40,000-50,000

50,000-60,000

60,000-90,000

90,000-120,000

120,000-170,000

>= 170,000

Breakdown of vessels by GT size group, by year of exposure

Gross ton:


NoMISNordic Marine

Insurance StatisticsOCEAN HULL – BY SIZE GROUP


2012-2016: 76,016 2017: 15,714

< 1,0001,000-

5,000

5,000-

10,000

10,000-

20,000

20,000-

30,000

30,000-

40,000

40,000-

50,000

50,000-

60,000

60,000-

90,000

90,000-

120,000

120,000-

170,000

>=

170,000

2012-2014 0.16 0.25 0.35 0.27 0.28 0.24 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.10 0.12 0.05

2015-2017 0.17 0.20 0.32 0.29 0.24 0.23 0.16 0.14 0.15 0.13 0.12 0.12

2012-2017 0.16 0.22 0.34 0.28 0.26 0.23 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.12 0.12 0.09

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Claims frequency per GT size group

Comment: Claims < 10.000 USD account for about half of all claims. Registration of these may vary over time

and by company and will thus influence the registered frequency. In addition any increase/decrease of



NoMISNordic Marine

Insurance StatisticsOCEAN HULL – BY SIZE GROUPPAID & OUTSTANDING AS REPORTED, NO IBNR RESERVE ADDED


NoMISNordic Marine


< 1,0001,000-

5,000

5,000-

10,000

10,000-

20,000

20,000-

30,000

30,000-

40,000

40,000-

50,000

50,000-

60,000

60,000-

90,000

90,000-

120,000

120,000-

170,000

>=

170,000

2012-2014 10,299 54,156 78,118 60,749 71,847 76,157 65,507 71,958 78,906 249,885 52,528 719,459

2015-2017 17,185 36,034 63,352 69,967 58,568 69,293 46,902 37,572 54,966 59,532 75,236 44,246

2012-2017 13,647 44,420 70,907 65,116 65,022 72,583 55,491 55,750 66,662 139,590 65,519 310,878

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

Claim per vessel (USD) per GT size group


NoMISNordic Marine


< 1,0001,000-

5,000

5,000-

10,000

10,000-

20,000

20,000-

30,000

30,000-

40,000

40,000-

50,000

50,000-

60,000

60,000-

90,000

90,000-

120,000

120,000-

170,000

>=

170,000

2012-2014 0.240% 0.311% 0.333% 0.250% 0.274% 0.244% 0.171% 0.176% 0.146% 0.272% 0.058% 0.516%

2015-2017 0.448% 0.245% 0.294% 0.279% 0.236% 0.282% 0.138% 0.106% 0.118% 0.076% 0.088% 0.035%

2012-2017 0.336% 0.278% 0.315% 0.264% 0.255% 0.262% 0.154% 0.145% 0.133% 0.167% 0.075% 0.236%

0.00%

0.10%

0.20%

0.30%

0.40%

0.50%

0.60%

Claim per Sum Insured (%) per GT size group


NoMISNordic Marine


< 1,0001,000-

5,000

5,000-

10,000

10,000-

20,000

20,000-

30,000

30,000-

40,000

40,000-

50,000

50,000-

60,000

60,000-

90,000

90,000-

120,000

120,000-

170,000

>=

170,000

2012-2014 25.0 18.5 10.4 4.0 2.8 2.2 1.5 1.3 1.1 2.6 0.3 3.9

2015-2017 43.0 12.7 8.5 4.6 2.3 2.0 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.2

2012-2017 33.6 15.5 9.5 4.3 2.6 2.1 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.4 0.4 1.6

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

Claim per GT (USD) per GT size group


NoMISNordic Marine


< 1,0001,000-

5,000

5,000-

10,000

10,000-

20,000

20,000-

30,000

30,000-

40,000

40,000-

50,000

50,000-

60,000

60,000-

90,000

90,000-

120,000

120,000-

170,000

>=

170,000

2012-2014 64,818 218,601 221,390 223,163 255,668 323,353 375,175 461,286 534,867 2,626,965 441,427 13,333,974

2015-2017 102,479 179,955 198,708 241,259 249,006 301,437 286,183 262,801 372,714 456,607 640,803 376,972

2012-2017 83,635 199,893 210,886 232,022 252,540 312,076 328,671 372,028 451,945 1,208,032 554,829 3,367,050

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

Average Claim cost (USD) per GT size group

66.1%

18.2%

11.7%

3.7%0.4%

2012-2016

<= 30 MUSD

30-50 MUSD

50-100 MUSD

100-300 MUSD

> 300 MUSD

71.5%

14.7%

10.1%

3.3%0.4%

2017

<= 30 MUSD

30-50 MUSD

50-100 MUSD

100-300 MUSD

> 300 MUSD

Breakdown of vessels by sum insured layer, by year of exposure

Insured values:


NoMISNordic Marine


OCEAN HULL – BY SUM INSURED LAYERPAID & OUTSTANDING AS REPORTED, NO IBNR RESERVE ADDED


2012-2016: 76,016 2017: 15,714

<= 30 MUSD 30-50 MUSD 50-100 MUSD100-300

MUSD> 300 MUSD All

2012-2014 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.22 0.11 0.23

2015-2017 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.11 0.21

2012-2017 0.23 0.20 0.18 0.21 0.11 0.22

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

Claims frequency per Sum Insured layer

Comment: Claims < 10.000 USD account for about half of all claims. Registration of these may vary over

time and by company and will thus influence the registered frequency. In addition any increase/decrease of


Insured values:


NoMISNordic Marine



<= 30 MUSD 30-50 MUSD 50-100 MUSD 100-300 MUSD > 300 MUSD All

2012-2014 49,447 81,456 66,906 225,073 2,028,600 72,314

2015-2017 45,580 62,562 58,905 113,865 148,891 52,492

2012-2017 47,386 72,516 63,076 170,742 1,031,545 62,113

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

2,200,000

Claim per vessel (USD) per Sum Insured layer

Insured values:


NoMISNordic Marine



<= 30 MUSD 30-50 MUSD 50-100 MUSD 100-300 MUSD > 300 MUSD All

2012-2014 0.352% 0.210% 0.099% 0.152% 0.470% 0.225%

2015-2017 0.332% 0.163% 0.087% 0.075% 0.033% 0.175%

2012-2017 0.341% 0.187% 0.093% 0.114% 0.234% 0.200%

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

0.40%

0.45%

0.50%

Claim per Sum Insured (%) per Sum Insured layer

Insured values:


NoMISNordic Marine



<= 30 MUSD 30-50 MUSD 50-100 MUSD100-300

MUSD> 300 MUSD All

2012-2014 2.6 1.8 1.0 2.8 18.8 2.2

2015-2017 2.1 1.2 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.5

2012-2017 2.3 1.5 0.9 2.1 9.5 1.9

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

Claim per GT (USD) per Sum Insured layer

Insured values:


NoMISNordic Marine



<= 30 MUSD 30-50 MUSD 50-100 MUSD100-300

MUSD> 300 MUSD All

2012-2014 206,235 384,665 376,320 1,021,902 19,111,544 320,658

2015-2017 211,376 332,023 307,142 602,327 1,308,944 253,289

2012-2017 208,838 361,281 341,892 832,877 9,362,501 287,409

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

20,000,000

Average Claim cost (USD) per Sum Insured layer

Insured values:


NoMISNordic Marine



Breakdown of vessels by largest flags, by year of exposure

OCEAN HULL – BY FLAG


NoMISNordic Marine



2012-2016: 76,016 2017: 15,714

5.1%3.5%

2.5%

11.6%

3.4%

5.7%

7.9%

2.5%3.2%

2.5%1.3%

1.4%1.2%4.9%

5.6%

9.0%

1.9%

6.0%

2.3%

18.4%

2012-2016 BHS - Bahamas

CYP - Cyprus

GRC - Greece

LBR - Liberia

NIS - Norway int.reg.

NOR - Norway

PAN - Panama

USA

ATG - Antigua&Barbuda

DIS - Denmark

FIN - Finland

SWE - Sweden

DEU- Germany

HKG - Hongkong

MLT - Malta

MHL - Marshall Islands

NLD - Netherlands

SGP - Singapore

GBR - UK

other

5.3%3.2%

2.5%

12.3%

3.5%

5.6%

7.0%

3.3%

2.5%1.7%

1.3%1.2%

1.0%4.7%

6.7%

11.1%

1.3%

5.6%

2.2%

17.9%

2017 BHS - Bahamas

CYP - Cyprus

GRC - Greece

LBR - Liberia

NIS - Norway int.reg.

NOR - Norway

PAN - Panama

USA

ATG - Antigua&Barbuda

DIS - Denmark

FIN - Finland

SWE - Sweden

DEU- Germany

HKG - Hongkong

MLT - Malta

MHL - Marshall Islands

NLD - Netherlands

SGP - Singapore

GBR - UK

other

13.2%

10.1%

38.7%

16.0%

9.6%

12.4%

2012-2016

American Bureau

Bureau Veritas

DNV GL

Lloyd's Register

Nippon Kaiji Kyokai

others

14.9%

10.1%

37.8%

13.6%

10.2%

13.5%

2017

American Bureau

Bureau Veritas

DNV GL

Lloyd's Register

Nippon Kaiji Kyokai

others

Breakdown of vessels by classification society, by year of exposure

OCEAN HULL – BY CLASS SOCIETY


NoMISNordic Marine



2012-2016: 76,016 2017: 15,714

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

0-5 Mio USD 0.640 0.819 0.907 0.953 0.978 0.994 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

5-20 Mio USD 0.773 0.894 0.940 0.965 0.983 0.994 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

20-75 Mio USD 0.826 0.925 0.968 0.986 0.996 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

> 75 Mio USD 0.789 0.917 0.978 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

100% 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

Ce

din

g co

mp

any'

s re

ten

tio

n o

f cl

aim

s (i

n %

of

tota

l cla

ims)

Ceding company's retention as % of SI

Exposure curves by Sum InsuredPartial Claims only (<=75%SI)

Sum Insured:

PA claims in % of all claims* :

0-5 MUSD: 72%

5-20 MUSD: 83%

20-75 MUSD: 85%

> 75 MUSD: 66%*

* «all claims» includes Costa

Concordia cost and other high-

profile claims; PA% for claims

>75 MUSD is therefore relative low

OCEAN HULL – EXPOSURE CURVES

The curves are based on 100%

shares. For a ceding company

writing 10% shares, the exposed

values in the given bands are

“<0.5 MUSD”, “0.5-2 MUSD”,

“2-7.5 MUSD”, “>7.5 MUSD”.


NoMISNordic Marine


PAID & OUTSTANDING CLAIMS AS REPORTED

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120%

0-5 Mio USD 0.488 0.643 0.732 0.792 0.836 0.874 0.904 0.930 0.951 0.969 0.978 0.983

5-20 Mio USD 0.659 0.775 0.829 0.865 0.895 0.920 0.939 0.955 0.967 0.977 0.982 0.986

20-75 Mio USD 0.714 0.813 0.864 0.895 0.918 0.935 0.951 0.966 0.979 0.991 0.995 0.997

> 75 Mio USD 0.555 0.676 0.753 0.803 0.842 0.880 0.917 0.954 0.991 0.998 1.000 1.000

All 0.653 0.764 0.824 0.861 0.891 0.916 0.938 0.958 0.977 0.987 0.992 0.994

100% 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

Ce

din

g co

mp

any'

s re

ten

tio

n o

f cl

aim

s (i

n %

of

tota

l cla

ims)

Ceding company's retention as % of SI

Exposure curves by Sum InsuredAll claims including total losses

Sum Insured


The curves are based on 100%

shares. For a ceding company

writing 10% shares, the exposed

values in the given bands are

“<0.5 MUSD”, “0.5-2 MUSD”,

“2-7.5 MUSD”, “>7.5 MUSD”.


NoMISNordic Marine


PAID & OUTSTANDING CLAIMS AS REPORTED

Exposure Curves

• Exposure curves are used by reinsurers to price excess of loss reinsurance.

• The curves indicate the ceding company's retained share of PA claims after ceding

claims in excess of a given percentage of a vessel’s sum insured.

• The curves should be applied on individual vessels or groups of vessels with similar

values and written shares.

• The curves are calculated for 100% values. In applications the choice of curve should

thus also be based on 100% values.

• The curves are based on USD claims amounts. Due to exchange rate fluctuations,

the ratio between claim cost and insured value may deviate in the original currency.

Exposure Curves technicalities

• The curves are based on H&M covers only for vessels with valid IMO-No.

• The curves are based on claims incurred in the years 2012-2017

(16,441 partial claims; 16,517 claims in all; only claims with cost > 1USD included)

• The curves are calculated as follows:

x = percentage retained

C = Individual claims 1)

V = Vessel value

f(x) = Σ min[C, V*x]/ Σ C

1) First set of exposure curves: based on partial claims only; Second set of exposure curves: based on

all claims, including total losses / claims exceeding the Sum Insured



NoMISNordic Marine


Sources: Claim indices: Cefor NoMIS data as of 31.12.2017; Exchange rates: Norges Bank, Ship operation costs: Moore Stephen’s, Steel: xxx (check)

OCEAN HULL – COST DRIVING FACTORS


NoMISNordic Marine


50.0%

75.0%

100.0%

125.0%

150.0%

175.0%

200.0%

225.0%

250.0%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Cost driving factors inflation index, 2000 = 100%

USD against EUR (annual exchange rate) Ship operating costs (Moore Stephens)

Claim per vessel (incl. total losses and IBNR) Partial claim per vessel (incl. IBNR)

Steel price index

Cefor marine insurance statistics publications at www.cefor.no/statistics :

(check the ‘NoMIS’ section)

• Cefor Annual Report 2017

• The 2017 Cefor NoMIS OCEAN Hull Report

• The 2017 Cefor NoMIS COASTAL Hull Report

• Half-yearly Claims Update Fact Sheet

Other marine insurance statistics:

• IUMI (International Union of Marine Insurance) –

Statistics issued by IUMI’s Facts & Figures Committee: https://iumi.com/statistics

NOMIS REPORTS 2016


NoMISNordic Marine


http://www.cefor.no/statistics

https://iumi.com/statistics

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