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Transcript of The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill...
![Page 1: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The 20 – TeensWhat Business Leaders Should Do
TODAYto Prepare for the Next Decade
Dr. Bill Conerly
for
Book Manufacturers Institute
November 8, 2010
![Page 2: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
![Page 3: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
![Page 4: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
![Page 5: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
$ b
illi
on
sFederal Surplus/Deficit
![Page 6: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
0
1000
2000
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4000
1996 1997 1998 1999
Ind
exNasdaq
![Page 7: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Y 2 K
![Page 8: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Issues for the 20-Teens
• Economic environment
• Business Credit
• Baby Boom Retires
• Information Technology
• Sharing Information
![Page 9: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Emerging
Advanced
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
ann
ual
per
cen
t ch
ang
eWorld Economic Growth
source: IMF
![Page 10: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
% c
han
ge
Gross Domestic Productadjusted for inflation
![Page 11: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 200020-q
uar
ter
roll
ing
sta
nd
ard
dev
iati
on
GDP FluctuationsStandard deviation of % change
![Page 12: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
What Would You Do Differently In a More Cyclical Economy?
• Monitoring sales, industry trends, economy?
• Plan for smaller runs & shipments?
• Leaner inventories?
• Equipment suitable for large runs and small?
• Less leverage?
• Strategic move to more stable sectors?
![Page 13: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Economic Environmentin the 20 – Teens
• Average growth rates a little slower
• Faster growth in emerging countries
• More cycles than last 25 years
![Page 14: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Issues for the 20-Teens
• Economic environment
• Business Credit
• Baby Boom Retires
• Information Technology
• Sharing Information
![Page 15: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Banking Challenges in the 2010s
• Too much real estate concentration
• Regulators worried about risk
• Regulators worried about capital
• Investors think the industry stinks
• Less flexibility to innovate
![Page 16: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
% g
ross
lo
ans
& l
ease
sReal Estate Loan Concentration
by banks
![Page 17: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
ban
ks
Bank Failures
thru10/22
![Page 18: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Total Risk-Based
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
per
cen
tBank Capital Ratios
![Page 19: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
S&P 500
Financial Services
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
ind
ex
ind
exStock Prices: Financials vs Overall
![Page 20: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Business Financein the 20 – Teens
•Credit cheap when available
•Credit available w/ top quality financials
•Credit scarce with poor financials
•Asset-based lenders also tight
![Page 21: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Issues for the 20-Teens
• Economic environment
• Business Credit
• Baby Boom Retires
• Information Technology
• Sharing Information
![Page 22: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
What Happens When the Boomers Retire?
• Investment Issues
• Labor force issues
![Page 23: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
0
5
10
15
20
1980-90 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020
mil
lio
ns
Working Age Population Growth
![Page 24: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Entitlement Deficits
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2008 2020 2032 2044 2056 2068 2080
% o
f G
DP
Medicare
Social Security
![Page 25: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
per
cen
tBudget Surplus/Deficit
![Page 26: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Emerging
Advanced
15
20
25
30
35
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
per
cen
t o
f G
DP
Savings Rates
![Page 27: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Impacts of Higher Tax Rates
• Personal: Look at nest-egg net of taxes
• Business: Employee retention challenge for those who don’t HAVE to work
(seniors, spouses, teens)
![Page 28: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Strategies for Tight Labor Market
• Good recruitmentQuality hires
Look for untapped pools of talent
• RetentionPoor managers lose employees
How to retain seniors?
![Page 29: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Issues for the 20-Teens
• Economic environment
• Business Credit
• Baby Boom Retires
• Information Technology
• Sharing Information
![Page 30: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Labor
Info Tech
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2006 2007 2008 2009
ind
ex
Cost Trends
![Page 31: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Who’s Your Good Customer?
Lila Bill
Low volume
Price sensitive
Costly to serve
High volume
Not price sensitive
Electronic transactions
![Page 32: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
feedback
![Page 33: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Technology in the 20 - Teens
• Know your costs and revenueBy customer
By product
• Feedback:Prompt
Accurate
Specific
![Page 34: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Issues for the 20-Teens
• Economic environment
• Business Credit
• Baby Boom Retires
• Information Technology
• Sharing Information
![Page 35: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
External wikis for customers
Internal wikis for employees, vendors, franchises
![Page 36: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Social Networking for Business
Examples: TwitterLinkedIn
Who Do You Need to Connect?Employees, Franchisees,Vendors, Customers
Tools: Social Networking SitesFree Conference CallsList-serves
![Page 37: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
What to Do Today
To Prepare for the Next Decade
• Re-Optimize for more cyclical economy
• Evaluate your financials: good or poor?
• Explore many credit options
• Experiment with keeping seniors on the job
• Know your numbers: costs and revenues
• Set up feedback systems everywhere
• Identify knowledge to be shared
• Set up networks for people to share expertise
![Page 38: The 20 – Teens What B u siness Leaders Should Do TODAY to Prepare for the Next Decade Dr. Bill Conerly for Book Manufacturers Institute November 8, 2010.](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051819/551c2eb8550346a34f8b623e/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Questions?
Bill @ ConerlyConsulting.com