Thayer Australia's Strategic Context
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Transcript of Thayer Australia's Strategic Context
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Strategic Context:
Australia and the Region
Professor Carl Thayer
Senior Officer Operations Planning Course
Defence Establishment Fairbairn
February 26, 2007
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Introduction
Defending Australia
Capacity to preserve territory from
attackDefending Australias interests
Strategic interests
Security interests
Prioritizing contending interests
Resource constraints
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Strategic Environment
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Number of Conflicts, 1946-2003
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Strategic Environment
Four major forces
1. Globalisation will intensify
2. Demographic change
3. International terrorism will persist
4. Continued U.S. dominance
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Globalisation
New levels of world economic growth
Deepening interdependence
Emergence of middle class
World labour market
East Asia centre of world growth
International institutions and states will
come under challenge
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Demographic Change
Fall in population growth rates indeveloped countries and an aging oftheir populations
Constraints on economic growth.
Japan and Russia will be severelyaffected in this regard.
Emergence of youth bulges in manyparts of the developing world
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International Terrorism
Transmutation of al Qaeda
Global jihadism
Politics of identity Challenge to state legitimacy
Home grown terrorism
Continuing conflict in Iraq and
Afghanistan
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Terrorist Attacks, 1982-2003
Lethality
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U.S. Dominance
Until mid-century the United States will
remain the most powerful state in all
dimensions of national power
Relative power of the U.S.will decline
Rise of China and India
Proliferation of nuclear weapons
U.S. management of global forces will
largely determine world and regional order
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Threats to Vital Australian Interests
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East Asia
Shift in economic power to East Asia
Rise of China and India
Japan: more active role in the managementof global security
Potential great power rivalry
China-US
China-Japan
Diffusion of military technology
East Asian regionalism
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South Pacific
Arc of instability
Transnational security issues
Weak and failing states
Solomon Islands
East Timor
China-Taiwan rivalry
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Australia and the Region
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U.S. Alliance
The alliance with the United Statesconfers major strategic, political andeconomic benefits on Australia. The
defence relationship is a substantialforce multiplier for Australias defenceand intelligence capabilities including
in relation to terrorism. Australias National Security: A Defence Update
2005,13.
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U.S. Alliance System
Foundation of regional stability andsecurity
Interoperability
Further institutionalisation
Intelligence/operations
Technology transferBallistic missile defence
Increased burden sharing by allies
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Japan
Largest trading partner
Free Trade Agreement
Tsunami relief operationsIraq security protection
Trilateral Security Dialogue
Bilateral defence co-operation
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China
Not an either or choice
Australia promotes good management
of China-US bilateral relationsMajor emerging market for Australia
Chinas growing energy needs
Australias comparative advantage
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Indonesia
Cooperation in border security
Transnational crime: illegal drugs, people
smuggling
Cooperation in counter-terrorism
Support for economic growth and
democratic consolidation
New Framework for Security Cooperation
Disavow support for separatism
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The Philippines
Expansion of security relations
Australian assistance
Training
Combined Exercises
Maritime surveillance
Counter-terrorism capability
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Regionalism
Australia promoted APEC (1989)
Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum
Australia a founding member of East AsianSummit (2005)
Mahathirs objections
Treaty of Amity and Cooperation - Cold Warrelic?
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The Region and Australia
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U.S. Alliance
we bring an additional strength to our regionalrelations, which is our strong alliance with theUnited States.
Alexander Downer, May 12, 2006
Australia as a dependent ally
Ballistic missile defence
Howard Doctrine
Pre-emption Deputy Sheriff
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China
Chinas growing strategic influence
China as a centre of technological
developmentStable markets, secure SLOCs
China as major emerging market for
Australia
Chinas energy needs
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China
Concern about encirclement by U.S.-
led alliance system
Growing economic interdependence
Taiwan Straits contingencies
Increased defence cooperation
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Chinas National Security Objectives
Maintain domestic security; prevent
separatism in Tibet and Xinjiang; and
then recover control over Taiwan;Promote a stable regional security
environment, especially along Chinas
periphery, as the prerequisite foreconomic growth;
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Chinas National Security Objectives
Maintain high levels of economicgrowth to provide employment, raise
income levels and prevent domesticdisorder;
Restore and expand Chinas traditional
political and diplomatic influence; and
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Chinas National Security Objectives
Promote a multi-polar international
order to prevent encirclement orcontainment by the United States.
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Indonesia
Lowy Institute Poll
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Indonesia
Lowy Institute Poll 2005
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Indonesia
Lowy Institute Poll
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Current Issues
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Global
ANZUS as a global alliance
Australian partnership with NATO
Iraq - the end game?WMD Proliferation
Iran
Failed and failing states
Africa and Middle East
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Regional
Past alignment of Australianseconomic & security interests will
diverge U.S. cornerstone of security
China second largest trading partner
Counter-terrorism
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Regional
WMD counter-proliferation
Proliferation Security Initiative
Cooperation to meet transnationalthreats
Maritime security cooperation
Humanitarian assistance and disasterrelief
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North East Asia
Increased Japanese defence capacity
and increased independence from the
US?
Korean peninsula
Taiwan
Territorial disputes
China-Japan and Japan-South Korea
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South East Asia
Separatism in Indonesia
Cooperation with the Armed Forces of
the PhilippinesFive Power Defence Arrangements
Area defence
Asymmetric threats
Maritme surveillance
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Indonesia
Working out bilateral cooperation
under the Framework for Security
Cooperation:
Defence, law enforcement, counter-
terrorism, intelligence sharing, maritime
and aviation security, WMD
proliferation, emergency relief and
people-to-people links
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South Pacific
Closer Defence Relationship withNew Zealand
Pacific Island Forum - leadership role
Nation-building - no exit strategy
Solomon Islands
Vanuatu, PNG
Civil-Military relations
PNG, Fiji
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South Asia
Indias increased economic andpolitical clout
India-United States new framework fordefence relations
Increased opportunities for securitycooperation with India
Civilian nuclear industry Australian exports of uranium
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Conclusion
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Strategic Uncertainty
Strategic shocks and discontinuities are
difficult to anticipate
Pandemic, state failure, catastrophic terrorist
attack, military confrontation between major
powers
ADF will continue to be involved in broad
spectrum from high-end war fighting tostabilisation operations and humanitarian
assistance and disaster relief missions
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The Long War
Impact of Democrat control of Congress on
lame duck US president and US strategy
over next two years
Will the Global War on Terrorism remain
the central organising principal of US
strategic policy?
Possibility of Iraq syndrome
How should Australia re-adjust its policies?