THAILAND FOCUS 2019 · Own car Bus Plane Train Others. 9 ADD FREQUENCIES: NEW ROUTE: 2Q19 DMK...
Transcript of THAILAND FOCUS 2019 · Own car Bus Plane Train Others. 9 ADD FREQUENCIES: NEW ROUTE: 2Q19 DMK...
THAILAND FOCUS 2019
29 August 2019
The presentation is dated the day it is given. The delivery of this presentation shall not,under any circumstances, create any implication that there has been no change in theaffairs of the Company since such date. The third party information and statistical data inthis presentation have been obtained from sources the Company believes to be reliablebut in no way are warranted by the Company as to accuracy or completeness. Thispresentation may not contain all material information concerning the Company and theinformation set forth in this material is subject to change without notice.
These materials included herein that are not historical facts are forward-lookingstatements. Such forward looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertaintiesand are subject to change at any time. In the event such risks or uncertainties materialize,AAV’s results could be materially affected. The risks and uncertainties include, but are notlimited to, risks associated with the inherent uncertainty of airline travel, seasonalityissues, volatile jet fuel prices, world terrorism, perceived safe destination for travel,Government regulation changes and approval, including but not limited to the expectedlanding rights into new destinations.
This presentation is strictly not to be distributed without the explicit consent ofCompany’s management under any circumstances.
DISCLAIMER
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THAILAND MARKET
2
31% 30%
North America
36% 36%
Europe
51%
55%
South Asia
48%49%
SE Asia
LCC penetration 1
52% 52%
Thailand
2018 2019
CHINA
Edged down 3% YoY and 29% contribution
ASEAN
Grew 6% YoY and 26% contribution
EUROPE
Edged down 2% YoY and 17% contribution
SOUTH ASIA
OVERALL
7M19 visitors grew 2% YoY to 23 million
E.Asia 68%
EU 17%
S.Asia 6%
US 4%Others
5%
23million
Tourists from China grew 6% YoY with 26% YoY jumps in arrival from India in July
Grew 20% YoY and 6% contribution
EXPECTED OVER 40 MILLION VISITORS IN 2019 OR 5% YOY
1 source: CAPA
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KEY DEVELOPMENTSGROWTH
COSTS
COMMERCIAL
• 2019 capacity growth between 7-8%; first A321neo delivered in December; expect entry into service during
1Q/2020.
• ASK growth in 2019 between 10-11% on the back of international route expansion
• Passengers to achieve at 23 million on the back of waiving VOA fees till 30 Apr 2020 and offering 1,000 Baht
cash giveaway and a 15% cash rebate up to 30,000 Baht till 30 Nov 2019; expect to rise 1ppt of load factor
• On track to achieve 2019 goal; CASK guidance narrowed to -2.0-0.0% ; CASK ex-fuel unchanged
• Similar to 2018, plan to mitigate unit cost pressure from capacity deduction for off-season
• Pushing aircraft utilisation to improve efficiency to ensure a favourable cost performance
• Maintaining a cost advantage over competitor airlines that operate, even under the same or different
business models
• Taking immediate capacity actions to address near-term RASK weakness, driven by some new routes taking
longer than usual to mature; network reallocation continues to ramp during 2H2019
• Maintaining its favourable operating performance (OTP) to more than 85%; which is key in positive brand
awareness
• On track to deliver ancillary revenue; engaging in dynamic pricing of its products & adding a bundled products
• Maintaining the goal to ensure that our guests feel like they get the great value from the company’s low fare
FLY-THRU
• 2Q19 up by 76% from an increase in AirAsia Group flights, reflected a 79% growth in traffics
• Fly-Thru pax was at 7% of total pax
CHECKED BAGGAGE
• 2Q19 up by 4% YoY, relating to international passenger growth
IN-FLIGHT SERVICES
• Continue promoting pre-book In-flight combo set• Enhance house-brand on F&B• Launch “Magic Journeys” merchandise.
SEAT SELECTION
• 2Q19 up by 30% YoY• Emphasis on dynamic pricing and Value Pack,
Government and Premium Flex with travel protection
OTHERS (Cargo, Tune, Fees)
• Fee structure adjustment; processing fee• Fly-Thru lounge access
DIGITAL TO ENHANCE ANCILLARYON TRACK TO ACHIEVE 2019 BT 343 PER PAX (+4%YOY)
2Q19 achieved 1,876 mb (+15%yoy) or Bt 336 per pax (+9%yoy)
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19%Revenues
9%8%
6%
48%
Thai AirAsia33.4%
Nok Air18.3%
Thai Lion Air16.2%
Thai Smile9.4%
Thai Airways6.9%
Bangkok Airways10.0%
Thai VietJet
5.8%
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Note: 1 6M2019 (Source: AAV, AOT and Department of Airport)2 Capacity share as of FY2019 (source : OAG)3 As of August 15 2019
MARKET SHARE1 BY PAX FLOWN
10 City transfer routes
DOMESTIC MARKET IN 6M20191
13 Unique routes 3
23 Destinations
11Island transfer routes
65%
RegionalMarket
Regional Capacity2
6
5.6 5.7
2.01.3
AAV THAI NOK BA
8375
87
65
AAV THAI NOK BA
1.57
2.22 2.21
3.65
AAV THAI NOK BA
10
45
-1AAV THAI NOK BA
Percent
HIGHEST PAX GROWTH LOWEST CASK*
HIGHEST EBITDAR MARGIN1
BahtMillion passengers
+5% -3% -8% +2% YoY * Cost excluded finance costs and tax expense
HIGHEST ASK GROWTH
Percent
Source: 1 SET filing, Company data, AAV estimates based on 2Q2019 Results
Note: NOK excluding Nokscoot
THAILAND COMPETITION
ASK Growth +12% -4% -10% -2% YoY
7
27.24
48.38 49.55 47.51
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
MORE RATIONAL COMPETITION IN DOMESTIC MARKET
Thailand domestic capacity
DECELERATED GROWTH SPUR AVG. FARE BY 4%
(source : OAG)
Airline
Unit : million
Thai Lion Air52%Thai Airways
Group 14%
Thai AirAsia12%
Nok Air 7%
Bangkok Airways 4%Thai VietJet 1%
Hub
BKKDMK
RE
DU
CT
ION
Competitor decreases its capacity
almost 1.8 million seats, particularly DMK-based airlines.
Thailand domestic market capacity over the past 5-year had grown by 15%resulting in intense competition and the price war. But for this year, we expect to see more rational environment, reflected in a 4% decline in capacity.
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INCENTIVES TO STIMULATE DOMESTIC TOURISMUP TO 10 MILLION THAIS WILL BE ELIGIBLE TO GET 1,000 BAHT CASH
Load Factor
Enhance load factor by1 ppt to achieve 86%
Passenger
Provide 2% upside todomestic passengers
Revenue
Increase 437 MTHB 2
to top line
We estimate this could generate up to 330,000 passengers
10%1 Thai tourists choose to travel by plane
33% Domestic Market Share of Thai AirAsia
1 Refer to Domestic Tourism Statistics Q1-Q4 2018 of Ministry of tourist & sport2 1H2019 Domestic Avg. fare plus Avg. ancillary per pax of domestic route stood at 1,325 Bt/pax
63% 22% 10% 4%
Own car Bus Plane Train Others
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ADD FREQUENCIES: NEW ROUTE:
2Q19 DMK – Roi Et
DMK – Khon Kean
DMK – Shenzhen
CNX – Danang
DMK – Nha Trang
DMK – Can Tho
CEI – Shenzhen
CNX – Shenzhen
DMK – Ahmedabad
HKT – Phnom Penh
3Q19 DMK – Sihanoukville
4Q19 DMK – Jaipur (4x > 7x)*
ROUTE NETWORKPROACTIVE STRATEGY OF EXPANDING TO INDIA AND AROUND INDOCHINA
* Winter season
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62 63 62
• New A321 NEOs aircraft are fuel efficient & have lower cost per seat (>50 seats)
• A321 NEOs aircraft deliveries from 2020 onwards to break the airport’s bottleneck
62 6157
2 5
2018 2019F 2020F
A321 NEOs A320Unit: Aircraft
CUMULATIVE FLEET
FLEET PLAN
FLEET PROFILE
AVG age : 6.3 Yrs
Operating leases 41
Finance leases 15
Owned 6
Note: 1 Information as of June 30, 2019Neo: 11 Aircraft, CEO : 51 Aircraft(OP-AAM 17, OP 3rd Party 24)
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TAA has hedged 65% of Brent at an effective cost of Jet at $76/bbl and $74/bbl for 2019 and 2020.
Sensitivity: +/- 1 Baht against USD equal +/- 5 USD per barrel Jet
Fuel costs in 2Q19 grew 6% along with a 14% rise in the fuel consumption, despite a 4% decrease in fuel price.
AirAsia Group2019
20201Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Current Hedge Ratio 53% 52% 70% 85% 73%
Avg Brent Hedge (USD – jet kero)
67 64 62 61 60
Hedge Cost (USD – jet kero)
81 78 76 76 75
Effective Cost(USD – jet kero)
78 76 76 76 74
Hedge Position
Note: Information as of Aug 28, 2019, Excluding D Factor and Excise Tax
COST BREAKDOWN
35% Fuel Costs
15% Staff Costs
13% Aircraft and Aircraft Engine Rental
9% Repair and Maintenance
12% Ramp and Airport Operation
6% Selling and Administrative
10% Other costs
1H19
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LONG-TERM GROWTH STRATEGIES
DiversifyNetwork
CostReduction
Revenue Growth
U-Tapao Airport MRO center
• Interested to invest in a MRO center in Thailand
• Subject to government approval
• Invest in pilot training academy and flight simulator center
• Aim to reduce cost >100 MB
Training Academy
• Develop U-Tapao Airport to turn Thailand into Asean's aviation hub (10% stake)
• Subject to government approval
Growth in ancillary to revenue each year, expected to see 25% in next 5 yrs
+1%
+10%Growth in cargo revenue each year, cooperate with TeleportDOMESTIC,
45%
CHINA, 20%
CLMV, 15%
ASEAN ex CLMV, 10%
SOUTH ASIA, 10%
+2%Growth in Fly-Thru passengerseach year
Revenues by routes in 5-year
RELEVANT MATERIALShttps://www.aavplc.com/en/investor-relations/home
DOCUMENT LOCATION
Investor Presentation
https://www.aavplc.com/en/investor-relations/downloads/presentations-webcasts
EarningReleases
https://www.aavplc.com/en/investor-relations/updates/news
Annual Reports
https://www.aavplc.com/en/investor-relations/downloads/annual-report
Investor Kits
https://www.aavplc.com/en/investor-relations/publications-and-download/investor-kits
Operating Statistic
https://www.aavplc.com/en/investor-relations/operating-statistics
SustainabilityReport
https://www.aavplc.com/en/investor-relations/downloads/sustainability-report
Don Mueang International Airport, 3rd Fl., Central Office Building, No.3200,Vibhavadi Rangsit Road, Sanambin, Don Mueang, Bangkok 10210
www.aavplc.com [email protected] +662 5625745-6
Shareholding Structure (as of June 2019):
AirAsia BerhadManagement &
BOD
Thai AirAsia(Opco)
Public
100%
45%
59%
55%
AirAsia InvestmentAsia Aviation
(Listco)
14
41%
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
Launched second hub in Phuket
Key Milestones:
2017
2017
Marketing Excellence Award, TMAOutstanding IR Award, SET
2015
Launched Fifth hub in Utapao
2014
The World Best LCC’s OTP Flightstats
Launched Fourth hub in Krabi
2013
Launched Third hub in Chiang Mai
2012
AAV was listed in the SET & increase its shareholding in TAA to 55%
Moved back to Don MueangAirport
Owned first aircraft in our book
2010
Comprised of single aircraft type the Airbus A320
2009
2007
2006
Moved to Suvarnabhumi Airport
Received first delivery Airbus A320
AAV was incorporated and acquired 50% of shares in TAA
Thai AirAsia Business Model:
2004
Began services from Bangkok to Phuket, Hat Yai, Chiang Mai and Singapore with two Boeing aircraft
2016
Received the first delivery of A320neo
2018 First Thai LCC to receive AOC Re-Certification
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5.6mil(+5%)
60%3.3 mil (-1%)
40%2.3 mil (+16%)
► AirAsia bagged "World's Best Low Cost Airline" for the 11th
Consecutive Year.
► Passengers grew 5% on the back of an 8% capacity growth.
► ASK rose 12% as launching 7 new routes.
► Average fare was at Baht 1,390 per pax down 1%, resulting from the sluggish growth of tourism and Baht appreciation.
► Ancillary revenues were Baht 1,876 million up 15% or Baht 336 per pax up 9% YoY, due to dynamic pricing and value pack enhanced seat selection and inflight revenues.
► CASK was 1.57 Baht down 2% YoY. Fuel per ASK was 0.55 Bahtdown 6%, while CASK ex-fuel was 1.02 Baht unchanged YoY.
► Core Revenues were Baht 9,609 million, up 6% YoY with 10% EBITDAR Margin.
► TAA & AAV reported net loss of Baht 879 million and Baht 482 million down 55%, YoY respectively.
► Net gearing was at 2.37x with a cash balance at Baht 2.8 billion.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS 2Q2019
86%83% 12.5hrs
Load Factor On-Time Utilisation
TAA : KEY STATISTICS
2Q2019 2Q2018 Change 1H2019 1H2018 Change
Passenger carried (Million seats) 5.58 5.31 +5% 11.44 10.95 +4%
International passenger 2.25 1.95 +16% 4.67 4.06 +15%
Domestic passenger 3.33 3.36 -1% 6.77 6.89 -2%
Capacity (Million seats) 6.75 6.28 +8% 13.26 12.50 +6%
Load factor 83% 85% -2 ppt 86% 88% -2 ppt
RPK (Million) 5,643 5,194 +9% 11,794 10,812 +9%
ASK (Million) 6,903 6,147 +12% 13,777 12,391 +11%
No. of stages flown 37,364 34,771 +7% 73,425 69,277 +6%
Average stage length (km) 1,023 978 +5% 1,039 991 +5%
Fleet size (Aircraft) 62 59 +3 62 59 +3
Aircraft utilisation (Hours/day) 12.5 11.9 +0.6 12.5 12.2 +0.3
On time performance 86% 87% -1ppt 85% 84% +1ppt
Average fare (Baht) 1,390 1,402 -1% 1,474 1,537 -4%
RASK (Baht) 1.39 1.47 -5% 1.51 1.64 -8%
CASK (Baht) 1.57 1.59 -2% 1.55 1.56 -1%
CASK ex-fuel (Baht) 1.02 1.02 0% 1.01 1.00 +1%
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TAA STATEMENT OF COMPREHENSIVE INCOME
Unit: Baht million 2Q2019 2Q2018 Change 1H2019 1H2018 Change
Revenue from sales and services 9,609 9,051 +6% 20,764 20,305 +2%
Gain on exchange rate 212 - N.A. 351 28 >+100%
Other income 194 252 -23% 522 563 -7%
Total revenues 10,015 9,303 +8% 21,637 20,896 +4%
Cost of sales and services (9,987) (9,000) +11% (19,606) (17,759) +10%
Selling and administrative expenses (818) (794) +3% (1,693) (1,573) +8%
Loss on exchange - (49) N.A. - - N.A.
Total expenses (10,805) (9,843) +10% (21,299) (19,332) +10%
EBIT (790) (540) -46% 338 1,564 -78%
Finance costs (180) (177) +1% (371) (348) +7%
Profit (loss) before income tax (970) (718) -35% (33) 1,216 >-100%
Income tax 91 150 -39% 57 51 +12%
Net Profit (loss) (879) (568) -55% 24 1,267 -98%
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TAA STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION
Unit: Baht million 2Q2019 FY2018 Change
Assets
Cash and Cash equivalents 2,843 4,037 -30%
Other current assets 2,862 2,238 +28%
Aircraft, leasehold improvements and equipment, net 25,450 26,129 -3%
Other non-current assets 6,019 5,514 +9%
Total assets 37,174 37,918 -2%
Liabilities
Deferred revenues 4,164 4,987 -17%
Borrowings from financial institutions 4,180 3,488 +20%
Debenture 4,096 4,095 0%
Finance lease liabilities 12,252 13,219 -7%
Other liabilities 4,814 4,351 +11%
Total liabilities 29,506 30,140 -2%
Share capital
Ordinary Share Capital 436 436 0%
Share Premium 2,629 2,629 0%
Retained earnings - legal reserve 43 43 0%
Retained earnings - unappropriate 4,560 4,670 -2%
Total share capital 7,668 7,778 -1%
Total liabilities and share capital 37,174 37,918 -2%18
2Q2019 2Q2018 Change 1H2019 1H2018 Change
Earnings (loss) per Share (THB) -20.18 -13.03 -55% 0.55 29.09 -98%
Return on Total Assets -3.0% 7.0% -3.0% 7.0%
Return on Shareholders' Equity -12.7% 25.2% -12.7% 25.2%
EBITDAR Margin 10% 13% -3 ppt 18% 24% -6 ppt
EBIT Margin -8% -6% -2 ppt 2% 8% -6 ppt
Net Income Margin -9% -6% -3 ppt 0.1% 6% -6 ppt
Debt1 : Equity ratio (Times) 2.75 2.00 2.75 2.00
Net Debt2 : Equity ratio (Times) 2.37 1.37 2.37 1.37
Net Liabilities3 : Equity ratio (Times) 3.60 2.18 3.60 2.18
TAA : FINANCIAL SUMMARY
Note: 1 Debt = Borrowings from financial institutions + Finance lease liabilities + Debenture
2 Net Debt = (Borrowings from financial institutions + Finance lease liabilities + Debenture) - Cash and Cash Equivalents – Short-term Investments
3 Net Liabilities = Total liabilities – Cash and Cash Equivalents – Short-term Investments
Percentage Point (PPT)
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AAV STATEMENT OF COMPREHENSIVE INCOME
Unit: Baht millionConsolidated
ChangeConsolidated
Change2Q2019 2Q2018 1H2019 1H2018
Revenue from sales and services 9,609 9,051 +6% 20,764 20,305 +2%
Gain on exchange rate 212 - N.A. 351 28 >+100%
Other income 194 252 -23% 523 563 -7%
Total revenues 10,015 9,303 +8% 21,638 20,896 +4%
Cost of sales and services (9,987) (9,000) +11% (19,607) (17,759) +10%
Selling and administrative expenses (817) (787) +3% (1,691) (1,572) +8%
Loss on exchange - (49) N.A. - - N.A.
Total expenses (10,804) (9,835) +10% (21,298) (19,331) +10%
EBIT (789) (533) -48% 340 1,565 -78%
Finance costs (180) (177) +1% (372) (348) +7%
Profit (loss) before income tax (969) (710) -36% (32) 1,217 >-100%
Income tax 91 149 -30% 57 51 +11%
Profit (loss) attributable to (878) (561) -56% 25 1,268 -98%
Equity holders of the company (482) (306) -58% 14 698 -98%
Non-controlling interests of the subsidiary (396) (255) -55% 11 570 -98%
Earnings (loss) per share (THB) (0.0995) (0.0631) -56% 0.0030 0.1439 -98%
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Unit: Baht millionConsolidated
Change2Q2019 FY2018
AssetsCash and Cash equivalents 2,930 4,123 -29%
Other current assets 2,867 2,243 +28%Aircraft, leasehold improvements and equipment, net 25,506 26,185 -3%Intangible assets 1) 14,879 14,883 0%Goodwill 2) 8,825 8,825 0%Other non-current assets 5,990 5,488 +9%
Total assets 60,997 61,747 -1%Liabilities
Deferred revenues 4,164 4,987 -17%Accrued expenses 2,558 2,562 +8%Finance lease liabilities 12,252 13,219 -7%
Borrowings from financial institutions 4,180 3,488 +20%Debenture 4,096 4,095 0%
Other liabilities 5,232 4,773 +5%Total liabilities 32,482 33,124 -2%Share capital
Ordinary Share Capital 485 485 0%Share Premium 2,600 2,600 0%
Retained Earnings – Legal reserve 48 48 0%Retained Earnings – Unappropriated 17,263 17,322 -0%Non-controlling interests 8,118 8,167 -1%
Total share capital 28,515 28,623 -0%Total liabilities and share capital 60,997 61,747 -1%
AAV STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION
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GLOSSARYLoad Factor = Represents the number of passengers carried as a proportion to capacity, which is the number of seats available for passengers.
Available Seat Kilometres (ASK) = which is the total number of seats available on all flights multiplied by the number of kilometres these seats were flown
Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK) = Revenue passenger kilometres, which is the number of paying passengers carried on all flights multiplied by the number of kilometres those seats were flown
Average Fare = Calculated as Thai AirAsia' s total passenger revenues and fuel surcharge divided by total number of passengers carried
Revenue per ASK (RASK) = Calculated as Thai AirAsia's revenues divided by ASK
Cost per ASK (CASK) = Calculated as the sum of Thai AirAsia's operating costs, selling expenses and administrative expenses (but excluding finance costs) divided by ASK
Cost per ASK (CASK ex-fuel) = Calculated as the sum of Thai AirAsia's operating costs, selling expenses and administrative expenses (but excluding finance costs) less fuel costs divided by ASK
Average Stage Length (kilometres) = Represents the average number of kilometresflown per flight
Aircraft Utilisation = Represents the average block hours per day per aircraft during the relevant period. Block hours is calculated by measuring the duration between the time of departure of an aircraft and the time of arrival at its destination.
On Time Performance (%) = A flight is deemed "on time" if the actual departure time is no more than 15 minutes of the scheduled departure time.
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