THAILAND FOCUS 2019 · Own car Bus Plane Train Others. 9 ADD FREQUENCIES: NEW ROUTE: 2Q19 DMK...

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THAILAND FOCUS 2019 29 August 2019

Transcript of THAILAND FOCUS 2019 · Own car Bus Plane Train Others. 9 ADD FREQUENCIES: NEW ROUTE: 2Q19 DMK...

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THAILAND FOCUS 2019

29 August 2019

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The presentation is dated the day it is given. The delivery of this presentation shall not,under any circumstances, create any implication that there has been no change in theaffairs of the Company since such date. The third party information and statistical data inthis presentation have been obtained from sources the Company believes to be reliablebut in no way are warranted by the Company as to accuracy or completeness. Thispresentation may not contain all material information concerning the Company and theinformation set forth in this material is subject to change without notice.

These materials included herein that are not historical facts are forward-lookingstatements. Such forward looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertaintiesand are subject to change at any time. In the event such risks or uncertainties materialize,AAV’s results could be materially affected. The risks and uncertainties include, but are notlimited to, risks associated with the inherent uncertainty of airline travel, seasonalityissues, volatile jet fuel prices, world terrorism, perceived safe destination for travel,Government regulation changes and approval, including but not limited to the expectedlanding rights into new destinations.

This presentation is strictly not to be distributed without the explicit consent ofCompany’s management under any circumstances.

DISCLAIMER

1

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THAILAND MARKET

2

31% 30%

North America

36% 36%

Europe

51%

55%

South Asia

48%49%

SE Asia

LCC penetration 1

52% 52%

Thailand

2018 2019

CHINA

Edged down 3% YoY and 29% contribution

ASEAN

Grew 6% YoY and 26% contribution

EUROPE

Edged down 2% YoY and 17% contribution

SOUTH ASIA

OVERALL

7M19 visitors grew 2% YoY to 23 million

E.Asia 68%

EU 17%

S.Asia 6%

US 4%Others

5%

23million

Tourists from China grew 6% YoY with 26% YoY jumps in arrival from India in July

Grew 20% YoY and 6% contribution

EXPECTED OVER 40 MILLION VISITORS IN 2019 OR 5% YOY

1 source: CAPA

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KEY DEVELOPMENTSGROWTH

COSTS

COMMERCIAL

• 2019 capacity growth between 7-8%; first A321neo delivered in December; expect entry into service during

1Q/2020.

• ASK growth in 2019 between 10-11% on the back of international route expansion

• Passengers to achieve at 23 million on the back of waiving VOA fees till 30 Apr 2020 and offering 1,000 Baht

cash giveaway and a 15% cash rebate up to 30,000 Baht till 30 Nov 2019; expect to rise 1ppt of load factor

• On track to achieve 2019 goal; CASK guidance narrowed to -2.0-0.0% ; CASK ex-fuel unchanged

• Similar to 2018, plan to mitigate unit cost pressure from capacity deduction for off-season

• Pushing aircraft utilisation to improve efficiency to ensure a favourable cost performance

• Maintaining a cost advantage over competitor airlines that operate, even under the same or different

business models

• Taking immediate capacity actions to address near-term RASK weakness, driven by some new routes taking

longer than usual to mature; network reallocation continues to ramp during 2H2019

• Maintaining its favourable operating performance (OTP) to more than 85%; which is key in positive brand

awareness

• On track to deliver ancillary revenue; engaging in dynamic pricing of its products & adding a bundled products

• Maintaining the goal to ensure that our guests feel like they get the great value from the company’s low fare

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FLY-THRU

• 2Q19 up by 76% from an increase in AirAsia Group flights, reflected a 79% growth in traffics

• Fly-Thru pax was at 7% of total pax

CHECKED BAGGAGE

• 2Q19 up by 4% YoY, relating to international passenger growth

IN-FLIGHT SERVICES

• Continue promoting pre-book In-flight combo set• Enhance house-brand on F&B• Launch “Magic Journeys” merchandise.

SEAT SELECTION

• 2Q19 up by 30% YoY• Emphasis on dynamic pricing and Value Pack,

Government and Premium Flex with travel protection

OTHERS (Cargo, Tune, Fees)

• Fee structure adjustment; processing fee• Fly-Thru lounge access

DIGITAL TO ENHANCE ANCILLARYON TRACK TO ACHIEVE 2019 BT 343 PER PAX (+4%YOY)

2Q19 achieved 1,876 mb (+15%yoy) or Bt 336 per pax (+9%yoy)

4

19%Revenues

9%8%

6%

48%

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Thai AirAsia33.4%

Nok Air18.3%

Thai Lion Air16.2%

Thai Smile9.4%

Thai Airways6.9%

Bangkok Airways10.0%

Thai VietJet

5.8%

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Note: 1 6M2019 (Source: AAV, AOT and Department of Airport)2 Capacity share as of FY2019 (source : OAG)3 As of August 15 2019

MARKET SHARE1 BY PAX FLOWN

10 City transfer routes

DOMESTIC MARKET IN 6M20191

13 Unique routes 3

23 Destinations

11Island transfer routes

65%

RegionalMarket

Regional Capacity2

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5.6 5.7

2.01.3

AAV THAI NOK BA

8375

87

65

AAV THAI NOK BA

1.57

2.22 2.21

3.65

AAV THAI NOK BA

10

45

-1AAV THAI NOK BA

Percent

HIGHEST PAX GROWTH LOWEST CASK*

HIGHEST EBITDAR MARGIN1

BahtMillion passengers

+5% -3% -8% +2% YoY * Cost excluded finance costs and tax expense

HIGHEST ASK GROWTH

Percent

Source: 1 SET filing, Company data, AAV estimates based on 2Q2019 Results

Note: NOK excluding Nokscoot

THAILAND COMPETITION

ASK Growth +12% -4% -10% -2% YoY

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27.24

48.38 49.55 47.51

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

MORE RATIONAL COMPETITION IN DOMESTIC MARKET

Thailand domestic capacity

DECELERATED GROWTH SPUR AVG. FARE BY 4%

(source : OAG)

Airline

Unit : million

Thai Lion Air52%Thai Airways

Group 14%

Thai AirAsia12%

Nok Air 7%

Bangkok Airways 4%Thai VietJet 1%

Hub

BKKDMK

RE

DU

CT

ION

Competitor decreases its capacity

almost 1.8 million seats, particularly DMK-based airlines.

Thailand domestic market capacity over the past 5-year had grown by 15%resulting in intense competition and the price war. But for this year, we expect to see more rational environment, reflected in a 4% decline in capacity.

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INCENTIVES TO STIMULATE DOMESTIC TOURISMUP TO 10 MILLION THAIS WILL BE ELIGIBLE TO GET 1,000 BAHT CASH

Load Factor

Enhance load factor by1 ppt to achieve 86%

Passenger

Provide 2% upside todomestic passengers

Revenue

Increase 437 MTHB 2

to top line

We estimate this could generate up to 330,000 passengers

10%1 Thai tourists choose to travel by plane

33% Domestic Market Share of Thai AirAsia

1 Refer to Domestic Tourism Statistics Q1-Q4 2018 of Ministry of tourist & sport2 1H2019 Domestic Avg. fare plus Avg. ancillary per pax of domestic route stood at 1,325 Bt/pax

63% 22% 10% 4%

Own car Bus Plane Train Others

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ADD FREQUENCIES: NEW ROUTE:

2Q19 DMK – Roi Et

DMK – Khon Kean

DMK – Shenzhen

CNX – Danang

DMK – Nha Trang

DMK – Can Tho

CEI – Shenzhen

CNX – Shenzhen

DMK – Ahmedabad

HKT – Phnom Penh

3Q19 DMK – Sihanoukville

4Q19 DMK – Jaipur (4x > 7x)*

ROUTE NETWORKPROACTIVE STRATEGY OF EXPANDING TO INDIA AND AROUND INDOCHINA

* Winter season

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62 63 62

• New A321 NEOs aircraft are fuel efficient & have lower cost per seat (>50 seats)

• A321 NEOs aircraft deliveries from 2020 onwards to break the airport’s bottleneck

62 6157

2 5

2018 2019F 2020F

A321 NEOs A320Unit: Aircraft

CUMULATIVE FLEET

FLEET PLAN

FLEET PROFILE

AVG age : 6.3 Yrs

Operating leases 41

Finance leases 15

Owned 6

Note: 1 Information as of June 30, 2019Neo: 11 Aircraft, CEO : 51 Aircraft(OP-AAM 17, OP 3rd Party 24)

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TAA has hedged 65% of Brent at an effective cost of Jet at $76/bbl and $74/bbl for 2019 and 2020.

Sensitivity: +/- 1 Baht against USD equal +/- 5 USD per barrel Jet

Fuel costs in 2Q19 grew 6% along with a 14% rise in the fuel consumption, despite a 4% decrease in fuel price.

AirAsia Group2019

20201Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

Current Hedge Ratio 53% 52% 70% 85% 73%

Avg Brent Hedge (USD – jet kero)

67 64 62 61 60

Hedge Cost (USD – jet kero)

81 78 76 76 75

Effective Cost(USD – jet kero)

78 76 76 76 74

Hedge Position

Note: Information as of Aug 28, 2019, Excluding D Factor and Excise Tax

COST BREAKDOWN

35% Fuel Costs

15% Staff Costs

13% Aircraft and Aircraft Engine Rental

9% Repair and Maintenance

12% Ramp and Airport Operation

6% Selling and Administrative

10% Other costs

1H19

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LONG-TERM GROWTH STRATEGIES

DiversifyNetwork

CostReduction

Revenue Growth

U-Tapao Airport MRO center

• Interested to invest in a MRO center in Thailand

• Subject to government approval

• Invest in pilot training academy and flight simulator center

• Aim to reduce cost >100 MB

Training Academy

• Develop U-Tapao Airport to turn Thailand into Asean's aviation hub (10% stake)

• Subject to government approval

Growth in ancillary to revenue each year, expected to see 25% in next 5 yrs

+1%

+10%Growth in cargo revenue each year, cooperate with TeleportDOMESTIC,

45%

CHINA, 20%

CLMV, 15%

ASEAN ex CLMV, 10%

SOUTH ASIA, 10%

+2%Growth in Fly-Thru passengerseach year

Revenues by routes in 5-year

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RELEVANT MATERIALShttps://www.aavplc.com/en/investor-relations/home

DOCUMENT LOCATION

Investor Presentation

https://www.aavplc.com/en/investor-relations/downloads/presentations-webcasts

EarningReleases

https://www.aavplc.com/en/investor-relations/updates/news

Annual Reports

https://www.aavplc.com/en/investor-relations/downloads/annual-report

Investor Kits

https://www.aavplc.com/en/investor-relations/publications-and-download/investor-kits

Operating Statistic

https://www.aavplc.com/en/investor-relations/operating-statistics

SustainabilityReport

https://www.aavplc.com/en/investor-relations/downloads/sustainability-report

Don Mueang International Airport, 3rd Fl., Central Office Building, No.3200,Vibhavadi Rangsit Road, Sanambin, Don Mueang, Bangkok 10210

www.aavplc.com [email protected] +662 5625745-6

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Shareholding Structure (as of June 2019):

AirAsia BerhadManagement &

BOD

Thai AirAsia(Opco)

Public

100%

45%

59%

55%

AirAsia InvestmentAsia Aviation

(Listco)

14

41%

BUSINESS OVERVIEW

Launched second hub in Phuket

Key Milestones:

2017

2017

Marketing Excellence Award, TMAOutstanding IR Award, SET

2015

Launched Fifth hub in Utapao

2014

The World Best LCC’s OTP Flightstats

Launched Fourth hub in Krabi

2013

Launched Third hub in Chiang Mai

2012

AAV was listed in the SET & increase its shareholding in TAA to 55%

Moved back to Don MueangAirport

Owned first aircraft in our book

2010

Comprised of single aircraft type the Airbus A320

2009

2007

2006

Moved to Suvarnabhumi Airport

Received first delivery Airbus A320

AAV was incorporated and acquired 50% of shares in TAA

Thai AirAsia Business Model:

2004

Began services from Bangkok to Phuket, Hat Yai, Chiang Mai and Singapore with two Boeing aircraft

2016

Received the first delivery of A320neo

2018 First Thai LCC to receive AOC Re-Certification

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5.6mil(+5%)

60%3.3 mil (-1%)

40%2.3 mil (+16%)

► AirAsia bagged "World's Best Low Cost Airline" for the 11th

Consecutive Year.

► Passengers grew 5% on the back of an 8% capacity growth.

► ASK rose 12% as launching 7 new routes.

► Average fare was at Baht 1,390 per pax down 1%, resulting from the sluggish growth of tourism and Baht appreciation.

► Ancillary revenues were Baht 1,876 million up 15% or Baht 336 per pax up 9% YoY, due to dynamic pricing and value pack enhanced seat selection and inflight revenues.

► CASK was 1.57 Baht down 2% YoY. Fuel per ASK was 0.55 Bahtdown 6%, while CASK ex-fuel was 1.02 Baht unchanged YoY.

► Core Revenues were Baht 9,609 million, up 6% YoY with 10% EBITDAR Margin.

► TAA & AAV reported net loss of Baht 879 million and Baht 482 million down 55%, YoY respectively.

► Net gearing was at 2.37x with a cash balance at Baht 2.8 billion.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS 2Q2019

86%83% 12.5hrs

Load Factor On-Time Utilisation

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TAA : KEY STATISTICS

2Q2019 2Q2018 Change 1H2019 1H2018 Change

Passenger carried (Million seats) 5.58 5.31 +5% 11.44 10.95 +4%

International passenger 2.25 1.95 +16% 4.67 4.06 +15%

Domestic passenger 3.33 3.36 -1% 6.77 6.89 -2%

Capacity (Million seats) 6.75 6.28 +8% 13.26 12.50 +6%

Load factor 83% 85% -2 ppt 86% 88% -2 ppt

RPK (Million) 5,643 5,194 +9% 11,794 10,812 +9%

ASK (Million) 6,903 6,147 +12% 13,777 12,391 +11%

No. of stages flown 37,364 34,771 +7% 73,425 69,277 +6%

Average stage length (km) 1,023 978 +5% 1,039 991 +5%

Fleet size (Aircraft) 62 59 +3 62 59 +3

Aircraft utilisation (Hours/day) 12.5 11.9 +0.6 12.5 12.2 +0.3

On time performance 86% 87% -1ppt 85% 84% +1ppt

Average fare (Baht) 1,390 1,402 -1% 1,474 1,537 -4%

RASK (Baht) 1.39 1.47 -5% 1.51 1.64 -8%

CASK (Baht) 1.57 1.59 -2% 1.55 1.56 -1%

CASK ex-fuel (Baht) 1.02 1.02 0% 1.01 1.00 +1%

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TAA STATEMENT OF COMPREHENSIVE INCOME

Unit: Baht million 2Q2019 2Q2018 Change 1H2019 1H2018 Change

Revenue from sales and services 9,609 9,051 +6% 20,764 20,305 +2%

Gain on exchange rate 212 - N.A. 351 28 >+100%

Other income 194 252 -23% 522 563 -7%

Total revenues 10,015 9,303 +8% 21,637 20,896 +4%

Cost of sales and services (9,987) (9,000) +11% (19,606) (17,759) +10%

Selling and administrative expenses (818) (794) +3% (1,693) (1,573) +8%

Loss on exchange - (49) N.A. - - N.A.

Total expenses (10,805) (9,843) +10% (21,299) (19,332) +10%

EBIT (790) (540) -46% 338 1,564 -78%

Finance costs (180) (177) +1% (371) (348) +7%

Profit (loss) before income tax (970) (718) -35% (33) 1,216 >-100%

Income tax 91 150 -39% 57 51 +12%

Net Profit (loss) (879) (568) -55% 24 1,267 -98%

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TAA STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION

Unit: Baht million 2Q2019 FY2018 Change

Assets

Cash and Cash equivalents 2,843 4,037 -30%

Other current assets 2,862 2,238 +28%

Aircraft, leasehold improvements and equipment, net 25,450 26,129 -3%

Other non-current assets 6,019 5,514 +9%

Total assets 37,174 37,918 -2%

Liabilities

Deferred revenues 4,164 4,987 -17%

Borrowings from financial institutions 4,180 3,488 +20%

Debenture 4,096 4,095 0%

Finance lease liabilities 12,252 13,219 -7%

Other liabilities 4,814 4,351 +11%

Total liabilities 29,506 30,140 -2%

Share capital

Ordinary Share Capital 436 436 0%

Share Premium 2,629 2,629 0%

Retained earnings - legal reserve 43 43 0%

Retained earnings - unappropriate 4,560 4,670 -2%

Total share capital 7,668 7,778 -1%

Total liabilities and share capital 37,174 37,918 -2%18

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2Q2019 2Q2018 Change 1H2019 1H2018 Change

Earnings (loss) per Share (THB) -20.18 -13.03 -55% 0.55 29.09 -98%

Return on Total Assets -3.0% 7.0% -3.0% 7.0%

Return on Shareholders' Equity -12.7% 25.2% -12.7% 25.2%

EBITDAR Margin 10% 13% -3 ppt 18% 24% -6 ppt

EBIT Margin -8% -6% -2 ppt 2% 8% -6 ppt

Net Income Margin -9% -6% -3 ppt 0.1% 6% -6 ppt

Debt1 : Equity ratio (Times) 2.75 2.00 2.75 2.00

Net Debt2 : Equity ratio (Times) 2.37 1.37 2.37 1.37

Net Liabilities3 : Equity ratio (Times) 3.60 2.18 3.60 2.18

TAA : FINANCIAL SUMMARY

Note: 1 Debt = Borrowings from financial institutions + Finance lease liabilities + Debenture

2 Net Debt = (Borrowings from financial institutions + Finance lease liabilities + Debenture) - Cash and Cash Equivalents – Short-term Investments

3 Net Liabilities = Total liabilities – Cash and Cash Equivalents – Short-term Investments

Percentage Point (PPT)

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AAV STATEMENT OF COMPREHENSIVE INCOME

Unit: Baht millionConsolidated

ChangeConsolidated

Change2Q2019 2Q2018 1H2019 1H2018

Revenue from sales and services 9,609 9,051 +6% 20,764 20,305 +2%

Gain on exchange rate 212 - N.A. 351 28 >+100%

Other income 194 252 -23% 523 563 -7%

Total revenues 10,015 9,303 +8% 21,638 20,896 +4%

Cost of sales and services (9,987) (9,000) +11% (19,607) (17,759) +10%

Selling and administrative expenses (817) (787) +3% (1,691) (1,572) +8%

Loss on exchange - (49) N.A. - - N.A.

Total expenses (10,804) (9,835) +10% (21,298) (19,331) +10%

EBIT (789) (533) -48% 340 1,565 -78%

Finance costs (180) (177) +1% (372) (348) +7%

Profit (loss) before income tax (969) (710) -36% (32) 1,217 >-100%

Income tax 91 149 -30% 57 51 +11%

Profit (loss) attributable to (878) (561) -56% 25 1,268 -98%

Equity holders of the company (482) (306) -58% 14 698 -98%

Non-controlling interests of the subsidiary (396) (255) -55% 11 570 -98%

Earnings (loss) per share (THB) (0.0995) (0.0631) -56% 0.0030 0.1439 -98%

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Unit: Baht millionConsolidated

Change2Q2019 FY2018

AssetsCash and Cash equivalents 2,930 4,123 -29%

Other current assets 2,867 2,243 +28%Aircraft, leasehold improvements and equipment, net 25,506 26,185 -3%Intangible assets 1) 14,879 14,883 0%Goodwill 2) 8,825 8,825 0%Other non-current assets 5,990 5,488 +9%

Total assets 60,997 61,747 -1%Liabilities

Deferred revenues 4,164 4,987 -17%Accrued expenses 2,558 2,562 +8%Finance lease liabilities 12,252 13,219 -7%

Borrowings from financial institutions 4,180 3,488 +20%Debenture 4,096 4,095 0%

Other liabilities 5,232 4,773 +5%Total liabilities 32,482 33,124 -2%Share capital

Ordinary Share Capital 485 485 0%Share Premium 2,600 2,600 0%

Retained Earnings – Legal reserve 48 48 0%Retained Earnings – Unappropriated 17,263 17,322 -0%Non-controlling interests 8,118 8,167 -1%

Total share capital 28,515 28,623 -0%Total liabilities and share capital 60,997 61,747 -1%

AAV STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION

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GLOSSARYLoad Factor = Represents the number of passengers carried as a proportion to capacity, which is the number of seats available for passengers.

Available Seat Kilometres (ASK) = which is the total number of seats available on all flights multiplied by the number of kilometres these seats were flown

Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK) = Revenue passenger kilometres, which is the number of paying passengers carried on all flights multiplied by the number of kilometres those seats were flown

Average Fare = Calculated as Thai AirAsia' s total passenger revenues and fuel surcharge divided by total number of passengers carried

Revenue per ASK (RASK) = Calculated as Thai AirAsia's revenues divided by ASK

Cost per ASK (CASK) = Calculated as the sum of Thai AirAsia's operating costs, selling expenses and administrative expenses (but excluding finance costs) divided by ASK

Cost per ASK (CASK ex-fuel) = Calculated as the sum of Thai AirAsia's operating costs, selling expenses and administrative expenses (but excluding finance costs) less fuel costs divided by ASK

Average Stage Length (kilometres) = Represents the average number of kilometresflown per flight

Aircraft Utilisation = Represents the average block hours per day per aircraft during the relevant period. Block hours is calculated by measuring the duration between the time of departure of an aircraft and the time of arrival at its destination.

On Time Performance (%) = A flight is deemed "on time" if the actual departure time is no more than 15 minutes of the scheduled departure time.

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