Th lt d b lThe malt and barley supply/demand situation in...
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Th lt d b lThe malt and barley supply/demand situation in A t liAustralia ‘A Brewers Perspective’
Dr Mark GoldsmithManager Beverage MaterialsTechnical Services
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ContentContent
Gl b l B T d• Global Beer Trends• Australian Beer Consumption
A t li M lti B l S l• Australian Malting Barley Supply• Australian Brewing Demand• Australian Brewing Barley Requirement• The Future • Summary
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Global beer trends - consumptionGlobal beer trends - consumption
W ld b it ti h i d b 20%• World beer per capita consumption has increased by 20% over the last 10 years, outpacing spirits, wine and cider#
• Global growth is expected to continue at 2-3%* pag• E Europe, Latin America, Asia, Africa annual growth will
be 3-4%* driven by increasing personal wealth and shift from spiritsfrom spirits
• US, Japan, Australia trend will be flat but 4%* annual growth in premium sector
• Western Europe will decline – switch to wine• Imports continue to do well in all markets with growth at
6%+*6%+
Sources: *Eurocare Alcohol Trends Report April 2009# Canadean – Brewers Guardian Feb 2010
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Global beer trends - productGlobal beer trends - product
P i i ti• Premiumisation• authenticity, materials, process, packaging, pricing,
origin (import)g ( )• craft beer
• Flavour• both at entry point as RTD alternative and as a means
of premium differentiation• WellbeingWellbeing
• low-carb, low joule, nutrition, wellness ingredients, • Alcohol reduction
• driven by social pressure – 4% is the new 5%, • In developing countries emphasis is on cheap
affordable beer often low abv low bitternessaffordable beer, often low abv, low bitterness
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Premium/Super Premium BeersPremium/Super Premium Beers
US t d t d hi h fl hi h b ff i• US - trend toward high flavour, high abv offerings• Michelob 2006 Celebrate beers, Chocolate (matured
on cocoa beans), Vanilla Oak (aged in bourbon casks ) ( gon whole Madagascan vanilla beans
• Samuel Adams Utopia, 25% abv, limited edition
S l AdSamuel Adams Utopia
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Premium/Super Premium BeerspEurope
UK i l i t diti l b i• UK - revival in traditional brewing credentials
– Green King Strong Suffolk Vintage g g gAle brewed at 6% abv and matured for 2 years in oak barrels
• Denmark – traditional use of fruits &• Denmark – traditional use of fruits & herbs
• Bramley Wit, a Belgian style wheat beer with Bramley and Belle de Boskoop apples, orange peel, cloves, coriander
JacobsenJacobsen Bramley Wit
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Premium/Super Premium BeerspAustralia
S l b d hi l f li it d diti• Seasonal beers used as vehicle for limited editions• Crown Ambassador Reserve – using ‘green’ hops
Crown AmbassadorAmbassador
Reserve
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CraftCraft
• The craft sector is important in creating knowledge, p g g ,enthusiasm, and language around beer, as well as a connection with ingredients
• US - About 3.4% of market*, growth at 9% p/a• Trend towards highly flavoured beers, bitterness >50g y ,
• UK - About 1.7% of market*, growth at 12% p/a*• Revisiting older styles of ales
* Consolidated industry estimates
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CraftCraft
A t li i 2% k t* th 13% / *• Australia – circa 2% market*, growth 13% p/a*• Limited range of styles, but increasing
120 Microbreweries in Australia
* Consolidated industry estimates
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Flavoured beersFlavoured beers
Fl f h t i i t• Flavours, refreshment, energy, aiming at young, and/or female consumers
• Explosion of flavoured beers in Europe and US• Explosion of flavoured beers in Europe and US• Positioned both in full strength and lower alcohol
segmentssegments
UK - Chocolate & Strawberry beer aimed at females
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Flavoured beers - EuropeFlavoured beers - Europe
G t d t f ll RTD fl• German trend to follow RTD flavours • beer with cola
• UK market favours citrusUK market favours citrus• Carlsberg Edge & Fosters Twist
with lime, Becks Green with lemonFosters Twist
Lime flavour
Becks green lemon orange
Carlsberg EdgeLime flavour
Becks - green lemon, orange, lime + mint
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Flavoured beers - USAFlavoured beers - USA
D i b j b ft• Driven by major brewers – often targeting specific ethnic groupings esp. Hispanic
• A-B 9th Street Market • eg. Pomegranate & Raspberry
A B Chelada (Bud + Clamato• A-B Chelada (Bud + Clamato Juice)
• Miller Chill (salt & lime)
Miller ChillLime & Salt
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Flavoured beersFlavoured beers
I A i fl d b h ll b iti d• In Asia flavoured beers have usually been positioned as lower abv, refreshment products
• Guangdong Blue Ribbon 3%abv - pineappleg g• Jilin Yuehai Yinpu 2.2% abv - tangy apple
• Australia new category
Carlton Dry Fusion LimeCarlton Dry Fusion Lemon
Bare Cove Radler
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Low/Lower Carb beersLow/Lower Carb beers• US standard for low carb – approx 2.0g/100ml• Over 50% of US beers are therefore ‘low carb’
• Miller Lite – the original low carb beer• Bud Light biggest selling beer in US• Bud Light – biggest selling beer in US• Michelob Ultra – extreme low carb <0.7g/100ml
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Low/Lower Carb beersLow/Lower Carb beers
• No Australian standard, but taken to beLow carb = <1.5g/100mlLower carb = < 2.2g/100mlA t li t til 4• Australia – non category until 4 years ago
• Pure Blonde <1.0g/100ml• Plus Platinum Blonde Hahn Super Dry &Plus Platinum Blonde, Hahn Super Dry &
various others• XXXX Gold, Carlton Dry occupy lower
b tcarb sector• Europe - very weak low carb sector
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Low Calorie / Low JouleLow Calorie / Low Joule
C f d t i l Li ht Lit Di t Di t L C b• Confused terminology – Light, Lite, Diet, Diat, Low Carb, Low Sugar, Low GI, Low Joule/Calorie
• ‘Low carb’ attracting some criticism as implying ‘low g y gcalorie’
• “Myth of the low carb beer”Calories contributed by alcohol and carbs• Calories contributed by alcohol and carbs
• 1gm alcohol = 7 calories; 1gm carb = 4 calories• In low alcohol beers carbs were often used to replaceIn low alcohol beers carbs were often used to replace
alcohol ‘mouthfeel• Carlton Mid has 4.0g/100ml of carbs
VB h 3 0 /100 l• VB has 3.0g/100ml• Germany - Becks Light sold as 64 calories per bottle• US - Miller Chill sold as 100 calories per bottleUS - Miller Chill sold as 100 calories per bottle
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Low calorie / Low jouleLow calorie / Low joule
Becks Light
3.7% abv Corona Light
g64 calories
Corona Light from Mexico
– 105 calories105 calories100 Calorie
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Australian Beer Consumption
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Herald Sun May 28 2010Beer drinking in Australia at 60 year lowBeer consumption hits 1950’s levelsGap between wine and beer narrowing
Courier Mail November 14 2008E i t h i ti d i kEven in tough economic times, drinkers reach for a cold one to quench that hard-earned thirstearned thirst Australians spend $7.9 billion on beer a year wine sales are at $4.8 billionand spirits are at $3.5 billion annuallydemand for boutique beer has grown by 11.3
t i l tper cent in last year
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Australian alcohol consumption per capita (>15 )Australian alcohol consumption per capita (>15 years)
6 105 L / person >15 yrs
4
5
rson 4.49
3
4
hol /
per Beer
WineS i it
1
2
L al
coh Spirit
0
996
997
998
999
000
001
002
003
004
005
006
007
008
009
19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
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Australian alcohol available for consumptionAustralian alcohol available for consumption
80,000
100,000
hol
60,000
es o
f alc
o
Beer Wine
20,000
40,000
'000
litre Spirit
0
996
997
998
999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
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Australian beer available for consumptionAustralian beer available for consumption
2,000
1,600
,Low strength (>1.15 and=<3.0)
800
1,200
M L
itres
Mid strength (>3.0 and=<3.5)
400
800M Full strength (>3.5)
Total
0
001
002
003
004
005
006
007
008
009
Total
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
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Low and Midstrength beer consumptionLow and Midstrength beer consumption
250,000
300,000
40%
150,000
200,000
000
L
Low strength(>1.15 and=<3.0)30%
40%
50,000
100,000
'0
Mid strength(>3.0 and
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
=<3.5)
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
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Australian Barley Supplyy y
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Australian Barley ProductionAustralian Barley Production
10000
8000
4000
6000
kT
2000
095-96
96-97
97-98
98-99
99-00
00-01
01-02
02-03
03-04
04-05
05-06
06-07
07-08
08-09
09-10
Source: ABARE
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Australian Malting Barley ProductionAustralian Malting Barley Production
10000
Total Malting
6000
8000
T
2000
4000
kT
095- 96- 97- 98- 99- 00- 01- 02- 03- 04- 05- 06- 07- 08- 09-96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Source: BBM estimate
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Australian Malting Barley Production – Domestic brewing use
Total Malting Domestic Brewing
10000
Total Malting Domestic Brewing
3% 9%
6000
8000
T
2000
4000
k
095-96
96-97
97-98
98-99
99-00
00-01
01-02
02-03
03-04
04-05
05-06
06-07
07-08
08-09
09-1096 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
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Australian Malting and Brewing sitesAustralian Malting and Brewing sites
MaltingBrewing
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Australian malting barley supply and demandAustralian malting barley - supply and demand
800
600
700
Average Malting Barley
400
500
barle
y
Average Malting BarleyProduction 2000 - 2009Malting Capacity
200
300kT b
Brewing demand
0
100
S Q SNSW Vic Qld WA SA Tas
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WA malting barley demandWA malting barley demand
Market usage Baudin Buloke Gairdner Hamelin Schooner Stirling Vlamingh
Export grain Very High Moderate High Contract X Low Moderatep g(>500,000 mT) Very High Moderate High Contract X Low Moderate
Export malt (300,000 mT) High Moderate
– High High Contract X Very Low Low –Moderate(300,000 mT) High Moderate
Domestic brewing (15,000 mT) X X Low X Contract Very Low X
Shochu (140,000 mT) Moderate X X X X High X
Overall demand Increasing Developing Stable to Limited Limited Decreasing DevelopingOverall demand Increasing Developing decreasing Limited Limited Decreasing Developing
Source: GIWA Barley Council
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Domestic and Export UseDomestic and Export Use
MBIBTC lt i t• MBIBTC malt scoring system • Two brewing styles
• sugar adjunctsugar adjunct• starch adjunct
• 6 parameters
• ExtractModification Same requirements • Modification
• Beta glucan• Viscosity
qfor both brewing styles
scos ty
• Attenuation High - for starch brewing• Diastase Low - for sugar brewing
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Baudin (2002)Malting varieties Baudin (2002)Hamelin (2002)Flagship (2005)Gairdner (1997)Stirling (1980)
g
Buloke (2006)Vlamingh (2006)Hindmarsh *
Gairdner (1997)Fitzroy (2005)Commander (2009)
Stirling (1980)Grimmett (1982)Schooner (1983)
Low Malt Attenuation High
Hindmarsh *( )( )
Low Malt Attenuation High
Low alcohol Regular alcohol Low carb / DryMid alcohol
g yAll malt beers
Variety not relevant to Australian Beer Styles (sugar adjuncts)Variety not relevant to consumers
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Australian Beer Stylesy
No direct correlation between beer style and malt usage
Malt UsageC f
Low alcoholLow Carb / Dry
Fl d
Craft
Premium
Regular alcohol All maltMid l h l
FlavouredLow cost
Mid alcohol
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The FutureThe Future
*beer means a brewed beverage that:• *beer means a brewed beverage that: • a) is the product of the yeast fermentation of an aqueous extract,
being predominantly an aqueous extract of cereals: • i) whether the cereals are malted or unmalted; and• ii) whether or not the aqueous extract contains other sources of
carbohydrates; and………
• Beer produced from unmalted barley?• Australian brewers will not use materials derived from GM crops• Australian brewers will not use materials derived from GM crops
to produce beer• Government Tax
• "The tax on one standard drink of wine is about 4c on beer around 37c and on a standard• The tax on one standard drink of wine is about 4c, on beer around 37c, and on a standard spirits drink or an RTD it's about 93c“
• Greens leader Bob Brown will today announce in Melbourne the party's plan to impose a 1.5 per cent levy on alcohol and junk food ads (Herald Sun 21/7/10)
* Australian Excise Tariff Act
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SummarySummary
Gl b l b ti ti t i• Global beer consumption continues to rise• Australian beer consumption is flat
A t li lti b l l t t i• Australian malting barley supply outstrips domestic brewing demand
However variety development not• However, variety development not favourable for domestic brewers
• The number of beer styles continues to grow• The number of beer styles continues to grow both globally and in Australia
• However no direct impact of beer style onHowever, no direct impact of beer style on malt usage (apart from low cost and premium)
• Australian brewers have a no GM crop policyp p y