TFWG Item 7 TO: Transit Finance Working Group DATE:...

TFWG Item 7

TO: Transit Finance Working Group DATE: November 5, 2014

FR: William Bacon, Programming and Allocations

RE: DRAFT Fiscal Year 2015-16 – 2024-25 SRTP Revenue Forecast

Background

This memorandum, and the accompanying attachments, contain a draft ten year forecast of

operating and capital revenue for transit operators in the San Francisco Bay Area for Fiscal

Years (FY) 2015-16 through 2024-25. These forecasts are prepared to provide transit operators

with an estimate of available revenue for the Short Range Transit Plan (SRTP) period. In

December 2013 MTC released a draft SRTP revenue forecast for a period from FY 2013-14

through FY 2022-23 which was used by the region’s seven largest operators to prepare their

SRTPs. This SRTP revenue forecast is intended to be used by all other transit operators, apart

from the seven largest, in the preparation of their SRTPs. This SRTP forecast differs from the

revenue forecast in the adopted Plan Bay Area Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable

Communities Strategy in that it uses updated base years, inflation assumptions, growth rates, and

diesel consumption/price assumptions based on the most recently available economic data.

The revenue sources in the SRTP revenue forecast include:

Transportation Development Act (TDA)

o Local Transportation Fund (LTF): ¼-cent county sales tax (Attachment A-1)

o State Transit Assistance (STA): state sales tax on diesel fuel (Attachment A-2)

Assembly Bill (AB) 1107: 25% of ½-cent BART district sales tax (Attachment A-3)

Federal formula funds (Attachment A-4)

Economic Overview

The SRTP revenue forecast relies significantly on macroeconomic trends to inform assumptions

about future revenue generation. This section provides details on some of those macroeconomic

trends in the Bay Area which are likely to have an impact on transportation revenue in the future.

1. Sales tax revenues have been increasing for several years, but revenues are extremely

variable by county and are subject to the overall economic state of the individual county, the

region, and the country.

Sales tax is the basis for the Local Transportation Fund (LTF) and AB 1107 funds

Since FY 1999, the Bay Area has faced two major economic downturns

o From FY 2000-01 to FY 2002-03, regional LTF revenues fell 16% before

showing signs of recovery in FY 2003-04

o Similarly, from FY 2008 to FY 2010, regional LTF revenues fell 18% before

showing signs of recovery in FY 2010-11

SRTP Revenue Forecast

TFWG: November 5, 2014

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Figure 1. Historic LTF ¼-cent Sales Tax Revenue Generation (Source: MTC)

2. Home Median Prices

The median price of homes peaked in Calendar Year (CY) 2007, and fell approximately

50% in CY 2009.

By the second quarter of CY 2014 median prices had reached their highest point since

CY 2007. However in recent months home prices appear to have stabilized across the

Bay Area.

Median prices vary widely across the Bay Area from a high of $950,000 in San Francisco

to a low of $305,000 in Solano County during August 2014.

Figure 2. Historic Median Home Prices (Source: DataQuick Information Systems)

3. Employment

Since the early 1990s the Bay Area has faced three significant economic downturns that

have affected unemployment rates

o Downturns from 1990-1993, 2001-2003, and 2008-2011 all significantly

increased the region’s unemployment rate as shown in Figure 3. These downturns

occur on average every 5-8 years

o The unemployment rate has fallen to approximately 5.1% in CY 2014 (through

September 2014) on average throughout the region.

o The unemployment rate varies from a low of 4.2% in Marin County to a high of

6.8% in Solano County (through August 2014).

o The Bay Area’s economy is strong in comparison to other regions of California.

As of August 2014 the unemployment rate in Los Angeles County is 8.5%, in the

Sacramento region it is 7.0%, and in San Diego County it is 6.2%.

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Figure 3. Historic Job Gains/Loss Summary (Source: CA Employment Development Dept).

4. Diesel Fuel Prices

Since FY 2004-05 the retail price of diesel fuel in California has increased at an average

rate of 6.3% per year.

Since FY 2004-05 the total amount of diesel fuel consumed in California has decreased at

an average rate of -1.7% per year.

Figure 4. Historic Diesel Fuel Prices (Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration)

SRTP Revenue Forecast Methodology and Assumptions

TDA: LTF, ¼-cent County Sales Tax

(Attachment A-1)

The Bay Area’s economy has recovered and grown in recent years leading to favorable gains in

sales tax generation. However, analysis of historic sales tax generation shows that the Bay Area’s

economy goes through cycles and we expect future sales tax revenue generation to be similar to

past economic trends with periods of revenue growth and decline. As a result, LTF revenue for

the initial year of the forecast, FY 2015-16, is based on an average of the real revenue of the

previous ten years (including the estimate for FY 2014-15 based on MTC’s Fund Estimate

Resolution 4133, Revised), equal to $326 million in 2014$. The remaining years of the SRTP

forecast are based on the 10-year average annual growth rate by county, approximately 2.7% on

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Total Employed Persons Total Labor Force Unemployment Rate

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average for the region. The Article 3, 4.5, and 4/8 distribution factors within each county are

based on the shares in the FY 2014-15 Fund Estimate, and held constant over the entire SRTP

period. In total, the SRTP forecast identifies $3.8 billion in LTF revenues over the ten-year

period. Increases in individual FY forecasts as compared to the December 2013 SRTP revenue

forecast are due to a higher base year assumption incorporating the period from FY 2005-06 to

FY 2014-15.

Figure 5. LTF Revenue Forecast Summary

TDA: STA, State Sales Tax on Diesel Fuel

(Attachment A-2)

MTC staff expects the retail price of diesel fuel to rise steadily and diesel consumption to

decrease at a modest rate over the ten-year period. STA revenue for the initial year of the

forecast, FY 2015-16, is based on an average of the real revenue of the previous ten years

(excluding 2011), equal to $395 million in 2014$. The remaining years of the SRTP forecast are

based on annual growth trends in diesel fuel prices and diesel consumption in California, an

average of 6.3% and -1.7% respectively. In total, the SRTP forecast identifies $5.9 billion in

statewide STA revenues over the ten-year period.

Figure 6. STA Statewide Revenue Forecast Summary

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Forecasted statewide STA revenues are then split 50/50 into the Population- and Revenue-based

programs. The MTC share of the Population-based program is based on the historical five-year

average of the total program, approximately 18.8%. Similarly, the MTC share of the Revenue-

based program is based on the historical five-year average and is approximately 52.3%. These

averages are corrected from the December 2013 SRTP Revenue Forecast to account for a State

Controller’s Office error in their FY 2013-14 STA revenue forecast. Lastly, the MTC’s

Population- and Revenue-based program apportionments are further distributed based on the

shares in the FY 2014-15 Fund Estimate, and held constant over the entire SRTP period.

AB 1107, 25% of ½-cent BART District Sales Tax

(Attachment A-3)

As previously noted, the Bay Area’s economy has recovered and grown in recent years leading

to favorable gains in sales tax generation. However, analysis of historic sales tax generation

shows that the Bay Area’s economy goes through cycles and we expect future sales tax revenue

generation to be similar to past economic trends with periods of revenue growth and decline. As

a result, AB 1107 revenue for the initial year of forecast, FY 2015-16, is based on an average of

the real revenue in 2014$ of the previous ten years. The remaining years of the SRTP forecast

are based on the 10-year average annual growth rate, approximately 2.3% for the region.

Distribution factors are based on the shares in the FY 2014-15 Fund Estimate, and held constant

over the entire SRTP period. In total, the SRTP forecast identifies $809 million in AB 1107

revenues over the ten-year period. Increases in individual FY forecasts as compared to the

December 2013 SRTP revenue forecast are due to a higher base year assumption incorporating

the period from FY 2005-06 to FY 2014-15.

Figure 7. AB 1107 Revenue Forecast Summary

FTA Formula Funds: 5307, 5337, and 5339

(Attachment A-4)

FTA formula fund revenues for the initial year of the forecast, FY 2015-16, are based on MTC’s

Transit Capital Priorities (TCP) projections for the region. The remaining years of the SRTP

forecast are expected to grow at an annual 1.6% growth rate, consistent with the current TCP

assumptions. Apportionment distribution factors to the urbanized areas are based on FY 2014-15

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AB 1107 Revenue (actual) AB 1107 Revenue (projection) Plan Bay Area Forecast



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shares, and held constant over the entire SRTP period. In total, the SRTP forecast identifies $4.3

billion among the three FTA formula fund programs (5307, 5337, and 5339) over the ten-year

period.

Cap and Trade Funding

Plan Bay Area included a $3.1 billion reserve from future Cap and Trade revenues. In December

2013, MTC approved a Cap and Trade Funding Framework (MTC Resolution No. 4130)

establishing a set of investment categories and initial funding amounts in anticipation of future

legislation. In June 2014, the FY 2014-15 State budget appropriated $872 million in statewide

Cap and Trade funding across various program categories. Additionally, the Legislature also

enacted a trailer bill, Senate Bill 862, providing a long-term funding framework by allocating

percentages of future funds across similar, but not identical, program categories. The amount of

future revenues to be generated through Cap and Trade allowance auctions will depend upon

allowance price and the number of allowances sold at the auctions. For planning purposes MTC

is assuming $2.5 billion in statewide annual funding for FY 2015-16 and beyond. This amount

represents roughly half of the most optimistic projections contained in the state legislative

proposals.

Three of the programs adopted by the state are relevant to transit operators for the purposes of

transit capital and operations: the Transit and Intercity Rail Capital Program, the Low Carbon

Transit Operations, and the Affordable Housing and Sustainable Communities Program.

Statewide Revenue Framework

Potential FY 2015-16

and Beyond

Annual Funding

Statewide

(in Millions $)

Cap and Trade Program-wide Revenue $2,500 (projection)

Low Carbon Transit Operations Program

(Distributed based on STA program methodology.)

$125

Transit & Intercity Rail Capital Program

(Statewide competitive program. Operations also eligible.)

$250

Affordable Housing and Sustainable Communities Program $500

Given the remaining uncertainty about the level of Cap and Trade auction revenues MTC cannot

provide detailed revenue projections for transit operators at this time. Operators may refer to

MTC Resolution 4130 in their SRTPs if they would like include a placeholder referencing Cap

and Trade.

For additional information on the Cap and Trade program please see Item 3a, Cap & Trade

Funding Framework Update, from the October 2014 MTC Programming and Allocations

Committee agenda.

J:\COMMITTE\Partnership\Partnership TFWG\_Transit Finance WG\_2014\14 Memos\11_November14\07_SRTP

Revenue Forecast.docx

Attachment A-1

TDA: LTF 1/4-Cent Sales Tax Revenue ForecastFY 2015/16 - 2024/25 SRTP Revenue Forecast Page 1 of 8

Table 1. County LTF Revenue ForecastYear 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10

County FY2015-16 FY2016-17 FY2017-18 FY2018-19 FY2019-20 FY2020-21 FY2021-22 FY2022-23 FY2023-24 FY2024-25 Total

Alameda 67,934,000 69,606,000 71,319,000 73,074,000 74,873,000 76,716,000 78,604,000 80,539,000 82,521,000 84,552,000 759,738,000

Contra Costa 37,908,000 38,583,000 39,270,000 39,970,000 40,682,000 41,407,000 42,145,000 42,896,000 43,660,000 44,438,000 410,959,000

Marin 11,718,000 11,933,000 12,152,000 12,375,000 12,602,000 12,833,000 13,069,000 13,309,000 13,553,000 13,802,000 127,346,000

Napa 7,225,000 7,519,000 7,825,000 8,143,000 8,474,000 8,818,000 9,176,000 9,549,000 9,937,000 10,341,000 87,007,000

San Francisco 42,289,000 44,061,000 45,907,000 47,830,000 49,834,000 51,922,000 54,097,000 56,363,000 58,724,000 61,184,000 512,211,000

San Mateo 36,906,000 37,951,000 39,025,000 40,130,000 41,266,000 42,434,000 43,635,000 44,870,000 46,140,000 47,446,000 419,803,000

Santa Clara 94,488,000 97,766,000 101,158,000 104,667,000 108,298,000 112,055,000 115,942,000 119,964,000 124,126,000 128,432,000 1,106,896,000

Solano 16,557,000 16,842,000 17,131,000 17,425,000 17,724,000 18,029,000 18,339,000 18,654,000 18,975,000 19,301,000 178,977,000

Sonoma 20,698,000 21,081,000 21,471,000 21,868,000 22,272,000 22,684,000 23,103,000 23,530,000 23,965,000 24,408,000 225,080,000

Grand Total $335,723,000 $345,342,000 $355,258,000 $365,482,000 $376,025,000 $386,898,000 $398,110,000 $409,674,000 $421,601,000 $433,904,000 $3,828,017,000

Table 2. Alameda LTF Revenue ForecastYear 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10

Apportionment

JurisdictionsFY2015-16 FY2016-17 FY2017-18 FY2018-19 FY2019-20 FY2020-21 FY2021-22 FY2022-23 FY2023-24 FY2024-25 Total

Admin&Planning 2,717,360 2,784,240 2,852,760 2,922,960 2,994,920 3,068,640 3,144,160 3,221,560 3,300,840 3,382,080 30,389,520

Article 3 1,304,333 1,336,435 1,369,325 1,403,021 1,437,562 1,472,947 1,509,197 1,546,349 1,584,403 1,623,398 14,586,970

Article 4.5

AC Transit 2,920,473 2,992,352 3,065,994 3,141,441 3,218,780 3,298,010 3,379,174 3,462,360 3,547,566 3,634,878 32,661,028

LAVTA 108,651 111,325 114,065 116,872 119,749 122,697 125,716 128,811 131,981 135,229 1,215,095

Pleasanton 59,119 60,574 62,065 63,592 65,157 66,761 68,404 70,088 71,813 73,581 661,154

Union City 107,373 110,015 112,723 115,497 118,340 121,253 124,237 127,295 130,428 133,638 1,200,799

Subtotal 3,195,615 3,274,266 3,354,846 3,437,401 3,522,026 3,608,721 3,697,532 3,788,555 3,881,788 3,977,326 35,738,076

Article 4

AC Transit

District 1 39,321,900 40,289,696 41,281,222 42,297,060 43,338,367 44,405,141 45,497,963 46,617,989 47,765,221 48,940,815 439,755,374

District 2 10,428,463 10,685,130 10,948,090 11,217,498 11,493,660 11,776,577 12,066,402 12,363,441 12,667,695 12,979,472 116,626,428

BART (to LAVTA) 74,879 76,722 78,610 80,545 82,527 84,559 86,640 88,773 90,957 93,196 837,408

LAVTA 8,094,966 8,294,200 8,498,320 8,707,445 8,921,812 9,141,423 9,366,396 9,596,969 9,833,142 10,075,155 90,529,828

Union City 2,796,484 2,865,311 2,935,826 3,008,070 3,082,125 3,157,992 3,235,711 3,315,365 3,396,953 3,480,559 31,274,396

Subtotal 60,716,692 62,211,059 63,742,069 65,310,618 66,918,492 68,565,692 70,253,111 71,982,536 73,753,969 75,569,196 679,023,434

Grand Total $67,934,000 $69,606,000 $71,319,000 $73,074,000 $74,873,000 $76,716,000 $78,604,000 $80,539,000 $82,521,000 $84,552,000 $759,738,000

-

Attachment A-1


Table 3. Contra Costa LTF Revenue Forecast

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10

Apportionment


Admin&Planning 1,516,320 1,543,320 1,570,800 1,598,800 1,627,280 1,656,280 1,685,800 1,715,840 1,746,400 1,777,520 16,438,360

Article 3 727,834 740,794 753,984 767,424 781,094 795,014 809,184 823,603 838,272 853,210 7,890,413

Article 4.5

AC Transit 539,237 548,839 558,612 568,569 578,697 589,010 599,508 610,191 621,059 632,126 5,845,849

CCCTA 737,510 750,643 764,009 777,627 791,479 805,584 819,943 834,553 849,417 864,554 7,995,320

ECCTA 388,914 395,839 402,888 410,069 417,374 424,812 432,383 440,088 447,926 455,908 4,216,203

WCCTA 117,530 119,623 121,753 123,923 126,131 128,379 130,667 132,995 135,364 137,776 1,274,140

Subtotal 1,783,192 1,814,944 1,847,261 1,880,189 1,913,681 1,947,785 1,982,501 2,017,828 2,053,766 2,090,364 19,331,511

Article 4

AC Transit

District 1 5,930,360 6,035,958 6,143,433 6,252,941 6,364,327 6,477,747 6,593,200 6,710,687 6,830,208 6,951,919 64,290,780

BART (to WCCTA) 239,128 243,386 247,720 252,136 256,627 261,201 265,856 270,593 275,413 280,321 2,592,381

CCCTA 16,124,114 16,411,224 16,703,439 17,001,183 17,304,031 17,612,409 17,926,316 18,245,753 18,570,719 18,901,640 174,800,827

ECCTA 9,527,590 9,697,241 9,869,908 10,045,842 10,224,792 10,407,010 10,592,495 10,781,247 10,973,267 11,168,805 103,288,196

WCCTA 2,059,461 2,096,133 2,133,456 2,171,485 2,210,167 2,249,555 2,289,649 2,330,449 2,371,955 2,414,222 22,326,532

Subtotal 33,880,654 34,483,942 35,097,955 35,723,587 36,359,945 37,007,921 37,667,515 38,338,729 39,021,562 39,716,906 367,298,716

Grand Total $37,908,000 $38,583,000 $39,270,000 $39,970,000 $40,682,000 $41,407,000 $42,145,000 $42,896,000 $43,660,000 $44,438,000 $410,959,000

Table 4. Marin LTF Revenue Forecast


Apportionment


Admin&Planning 468,720 477,320 486,080 495,000 504,080 513,320 522,760 532,360 542,120 552,080 5,093,840

Article 3 224,986 229,114 233,318 237,600 241,958 246,394 250,925 255,533 260,218 264,998 2,445,044

Article 4.5

Article 4/8

GGBHTD 11,024,294 11,226,566 11,432,602 11,642,400 11,855,962 12,073,286 12,295,315 12,521,107 12,750,662 12,984,922 119,807,116

Grand Total $11,718,000 $11,933,000 $12,152,000 $12,375,000 $12,602,000 $12,833,000 $13,069,000 $13,309,000 $13,553,000 $13,802,000 $127,346,000

Table 5. Napa TDA


Apportionment


Admin&Planning 289,000 300,760 313,000 325,720 338,960 352,720 367,040 381,960 397,480 413,640 3,480,280

Article 3 138,720 144,365 150,240 156,346 162,701 169,306 176,179 183,341 190,790 198,547 1,670,535

Article 4.5 339,864 353,694 368,088 383,047 398,617 414,799 431,639 449,185 467,437 486,441 4,092,811

Article 4/8

NCTPA 6,457,416 6,720,181 6,993,672 7,277,887 7,573,722 7,881,175 8,201,142 8,534,514 8,881,293 9,242,372 77,763,374

Grand Total $7,225,000 $7,519,000 $7,825,000 $8,143,000 $8,474,000 $8,818,000 $9,176,000 $9,549,000 $9,937,000 $10,341,000 $87,007,000

Attachment A-1


Table 6. San Francisco LTF Revenue Forecast


Apportionment


Admin&Planning 1,691,560 1,762,440 1,836,280 1,913,200 1,993,360 2,076,880 2,163,880 2,254,520 2,348,960 2,447,360 20,488,440

Article 3 811,949 845,971 881,414 918,336 956,813 996,902 1,038,662 1,082,170 1,127,501 1,174,733 9,834,451

Article 4.5 1,989,275 2,072,629 2,159,465 2,249,923 2,344,191 2,442,411 2,544,723 2,651,316 2,762,377 2,878,095 24,094,405

Article 4

SFMTA 37,796,216 39,379,960 41,029,841 42,748,541 44,539,636 46,405,807 48,349,735 50,374,994 52,485,162 54,683,812 457,793,704

Grand Total $42,289,000 $44,061,000 $45,907,000 $47,830,000 $49,834,000 $51,922,000 $54,097,000 $56,363,000 $58,724,000 $61,184,000 $512,211,000

Table 7. San Mateo LTF Revenue Forecast


Apportionment


Admin&Planning 1,476,240 1,518,040 1,561,000 1,605,200 1,650,640 1,697,360 1,745,400 1,794,800 1,845,600 1,897,840 16,792,120

Article 3 708,595 728,659 749,280 770,496 792,307 814,733 837,792 861,504 885,888 910,963 8,060,217

Article 4.5 1,736,058 1,785,215 1,835,736 1,887,715 1,941,153 1,996,095 2,052,590 2,110,685 2,170,426 2,231,860 19,747,533

Article 4

SamTrans 32,985,107 33,919,086 34,878,984 35,866,589 36,881,900 37,925,812 38,999,218 40,103,011 41,238,086 42,405,337 375,203,130

Grand Total $36,906,000 $37,951,000 $39,025,000 $40,130,000 $41,266,000 $42,434,000 $43,635,000 $44,870,000 $46,140,000 $47,446,000 $419,803,000

Table 8. Santa Clara LTF Revenue Forecast


Apportionment


Admin&Planning 3,779,520 3,910,640 4,046,320 4,186,680 4,331,920 4,482,200 4,637,680 4,798,560 4,965,040 5,137,280 44,275,840

Article 3 1,814,170 1,877,107 1,942,234 2,009,606 2,079,322 2,151,456 2,226,086 2,303,309 2,383,219 2,465,894 21,252,403

Article 4.5 4,444,716 4,598,913 4,758,472 4,923,536 5,094,338 5,271,067 5,453,912 5,643,107 5,838,887 6,041,441 52,068,389

Article 4

VTA 84,449,594 87,379,340 90,410,974 93,547,178 96,792,420 100,150,277 103,624,322 107,219,024 110,938,854 114,787,385 989,299,368

Grand Total $94,488,000 $97,766,000 $101,158,000 $104,667,000 $108,298,000 $112,055,000 $115,942,000 $119,964,000 $124,126,000 $128,432,000 $1,106,896,000

Attachment A-1


Table 8. Solano LTF Revenue Forecast


Apportionment


Admin&Planning 662,280 673,680 685,240 697,000 708,960 721,160 733,560 746,160 759,000 772,040 7,159,080

Article 3 317,894 323,366 328,915 334,560 340,301 346,157 352,109 358,157 364,320 370,579 3,436,358

Article 4.5

Article 4/8

Dixon 686,869 698,692 710,681 722,878 735,282 747,935 760,795 773,863 787,179 800,704 7,424,876

Fairfield 4,028,619 4,097,964 4,168,283 4,239,819 4,312,571 4,386,783 4,462,211 4,538,856 4,616,962 4,696,283 43,548,350

Rio Vista 282,916 287,786 292,724 297,748 302,857 308,068 313,366 318,748 324,233 329,804 3,058,249

Solano County 705,372 717,514 729,826 742,351 755,089 768,083 781,290 794,710 808,385 822,274 7,624,895

Suisun City 1,051,171 1,069,265 1,087,613 1,106,278 1,125,261 1,144,625 1,164,306 1,184,305 1,204,685 1,225,382 11,362,889

Vacaville 3,450,426 3,509,819 3,570,046 3,631,315 3,693,625 3,757,186 3,821,789 3,887,434 3,954,330 4,022,267 37,298,238

Vallejo&Benicia

Benicia 1,011,297 1,028,704 1,046,356 1,064,314 1,082,577 1,101,206 1,120,141 1,139,381 1,158,987 1,178,899 10,931,861

Vallejo 4,360,158 4,435,210 4,511,316 4,588,739 4,667,478 4,747,797 4,829,433 4,912,386 4,996,919 5,082,769 47,132,204

Subtotal 15,576,826 15,844,954 16,116,845 16,393,440 16,674,739 16,961,683 17,253,331 17,549,683 17,851,680 18,158,381 168,381,562

Grand Total $16,557,000 $16,842,000 $17,131,000 $17,425,000 $17,724,000 $18,029,000 $18,339,000 $18,654,000 $18,975,000 $19,301,000 $178,977,000

Table 9. Sonoma LTF Revenue Forecast


Apportionment


Admin&Planning 827,920 843,240 858,840 874,720 890,880 907,360 924,120 941,200 958,600 976,320 9,003,200

Article 3 397,402 404,755 412,243 419,866 427,622 435,533 443,578 451,776 460,128 468,634 4,321,537

Article 4.5

Article 4/8

GGBHTD 4,868,170 4,958,251 5,049,979 5,143,354 5,238,375 5,335,277 5,433,826 5,534,256 5,636,568 5,740,762 52,938,816

Petaluma 1,661,023 1,691,759 1,723,056 1,754,916 1,787,337 1,820,400 1,854,025 1,888,292 1,923,201 1,958,752 18,062,760

Santa Rosa 5,065,270 5,158,998 5,254,440 5,351,595 5,450,463 5,551,289 5,653,828 5,758,324 5,864,779 5,973,191 55,082,176

Sonoma County&Healdsburg

Healdsburg 411,278 418,888 426,637 434,526 442,554 450,740 459,066 467,550 476,194 484,997 4,472,429

Sonoma County 7,466,939 7,605,109 7,745,804 7,889,024 8,034,770 8,183,401 8,334,558 8,488,601 8,645,531 8,805,346 81,199,082

Subtotal 19,472,678 19,833,005 20,199,917 20,573,414 20,953,498 21,341,107 21,735,302 22,137,024 22,546,272 22,963,046 211,755,263

Grand Total $20,698,000 $21,081,000 $21,471,000 $21,868,000 $22,272,000 $22,684,000 $23,103,000 $23,530,000 $23,965,000 $24,408,000 $225,080,000

Attachment A-2

TDA: STA Revenue ForecastFY 2015/16 - 2024/25 SRTP Revenue Forecast Page 5 of 8

Table 1. STA Revenue Forecast


Apportionment


Statewide

Revenue-Based 200,779,000 220,873,500 241,227,000 261,839,500 282,710,500 303,840,500 325,229,500 346,877,000 368,783,500 390,948,500 2,943,108,500

Population-Based 200,779,000 220,873,500 241,227,000 261,839,500 282,710,500 303,840,500 325,229,500 346,877,000 368,783,500 390,948,500 2,943,108,500

Subtotal 401,558,000 441,747,000 482,454,000 523,679,000 565,421,000 607,681,000 650,459,000 693,754,000 737,567,000 781,897,000 5,886,217,000

MTC Region

Revenue-Based 105,093,604 115,611,653 126,265,271 137,054,456 147,978,949 159,039,009 170,234,637 181,565,572 193,032,075 204,633,885 1,540,509,112

Population-Based 37,669,907 41,440,012 45,258,711 49,126,003 53,041,794 57,006,178 61,019,156 65,080,633 69,190,703 73,349,273 552,182,370

Subtotal 142,763,511 157,051,666 171,523,982 186,180,459 201,020,742 216,045,187 231,253,793 246,646,205 262,222,779 277,983,158 2,092,691,482

Table 2. MTC STA Revenue-Based Program


Apportionment


ACCMA - Corresponding to ACE 227,467 250,232 273,291 296,643 320,288 344,227 368,459 392,984 417,802 442,913 3,334,307

Benicia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Caltrain 5,591,617 6,151,241 6,718,078 7,292,128 7,873,377 8,461,839 9,057,515 9,660,389 10,270,476 10,887,763 81,964,422

CCCTA 629,787 692,817 756,661 821,316 886,783 953,061 1,020,153 1,088,055 1,156,769 1,226,294 9,231,696

City of Dixon 4,998 5,498 6,005 6,518 7,037 7,563 8,096 8,634 9,180 9,732 73,260

ECCTA 288,690 317,583 346,848 376,485 406,495 436,876 467,631 498,756 530,255 562,125 4,231,743

City of Fairfield 113,109 124,429 135,896 147,508 159,265 171,169 183,218 195,414 207,755 220,241 1,658,004

GGBHTD 4,769,752 5,247,122 5,730,644 6,220,319 6,716,136 7,218,105 7,726,227 8,240,490 8,760,906 9,287,462 69,917,162

City of Healdsburg -1,347 -1,482 -1,618 -1,757 -1,897 -2,039 -2,182 -2,327 -2,474 -2,623 -19,746

LAVTA 268,203 295,046 322,234 349,768 377,648 405,874 434,446 463,363 492,626 522,234 3,931,440

NCTPA 47,411 52,156 56,962 61,829 66,757 71,747 76,797 81,909 87,082 92,316 694,966

City of Petaluma 26,848 29,535 32,257 35,013 37,804 40,630 43,490 46,384 49,314 52,278 393,552

City of Rio Vista 1,349 1,484 1,621 1,759 1,900 2,042 2,185 2,331 2,478 2,627 19,777

SamTrans 4,079,143 4,487,395 4,900,908 5,319,684 5,743,711 6,173,001 6,607,552 7,047,355 7,492,420 7,942,738 59,793,907

City of Santa Rosa 142,478 156,738 171,181 185,808 200,619 215,613 230,791 246,153 261,698 277,427 2,088,505

Solano County Transit 294,987 324,510 354,413 384,698 415,361 446,406 477,831 509,636 541,821 574,386 4,324,048

Sonoma County Transit 164,512 180,977 197,654 214,543 231,644 248,958 266,483 284,220 302,170 320,331 2,411,492

City of Union City 45,924 50,521 55,176 59,891 64,665 69,498 74,390 79,341 84,352 89,422 673,180

City of Vallejo 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

VTA 12,480,347 13,729,414 14,994,580 16,275,845 17,573,179 18,886,612 20,216,144 21,561,744 22,923,444 24,301,212 182,942,523

VTA - Corresponding to ACE 257,002 282,723 308,776 335,160 361,876 388,923 416,301 444,010 472,051 500,423 3,767,245

WCCTA 323,523 355,902 388,698 421,912 455,542 489,590 524,054 558,936 594,235 629,950 4,742,340

WETA 1,291,642 1,420,913 1,551,850 1,684,453 1,818,719 1,954,652 2,092,250 2,231,512 2,372,440 2,515,031 18,933,461

Subtotal 31,047,440 34,154,751 37,302,113 40,489,524 43,716,909 46,984,345 50,291,831 53,639,290 57,026,799 60,454,281 455,107,283

AC Transit 8,914,640 9,806,841 10,710,542 11,625,742 12,552,420 13,490,597 14,440,274 15,401,429 16,374,083 17,358,215 130,674,782

BART 24,821,237 27,305,413 29,821,607 32,369,821 34,949,991 37,562,180 40,206,388 42,882,553 45,590,737 48,330,877 363,840,803

SFMTA 40,310,287 44,344,649 48,431,010 52,569,370 56,759,629 61,001,887 65,296,144 69,642,301 74,040,457 78,490,511 590,886,244

Subtotal 74,046,164 81,456,902 88,963,158 96,564,932 104,262,039 112,054,664 119,942,807 127,926,283 136,005,277 144,179,604 1,085,401,829

Grand Total $105,093,604 $115,611,653 $126,265,271 $137,054,456 $147,978,949 $159,039,009 $170,234,637 $181,565,572 $193,032,075 $204,633,885 $1,540,509,112

Attachment A-2

TDA: STA Revenue ForecastFY 2015/16 - 2024/25 SRTP Revenue Forecast Page 6 of 8

Table 3. MTC STA Population-Based Program


Apportionment


Northern Counties/Small Operators

Marin 1,132,761 1,246,131 1,360,962 1,477,254 1,595,005 1,714,217 1,834,890 1,957,022 2,080,615 2,205,666 16,604,523

Napa 612,160 673,426 735,483 798,328 861,963 926,386 991,600 1,057,601 1,124,392 1,191,972 8,973,311

Solano 1,843,560 2,028,068 2,214,954 2,404,219 2,595,857 2,789,874 2,986,268 3,185,036 3,386,183 3,589,702 27,023,722

Sonoma 2,166,524 2,383,356 2,602,982 2,825,403 3,050,614 3,278,619 3,509,419 3,743,008 3,979,392 4,218,566 31,757,884

CCCTA 2,147,382 2,362,297 2,579,983 2,800,439 3,023,659 3,249,650 3,478,411 3,709,936 3,944,232 4,181,292 31,477,280

ECCTA 1,297,114 1,426,933 1,558,425 1,691,590 1,826,425 1,962,934 2,101,115 2,240,967 2,382,492 2,525,687 19,013,682

LAVTA 887,411 976,225 1,066,184 1,157,288 1,249,535 1,342,926 1,437,462 1,533,140 1,629,963 1,727,929 13,008,064

Union City 310,663 341,755 373,247 405,141 437,434 470,128 503,223 536,718 570,614 604,909 4,553,831

WestCAT 286,090 314,723 343,724 373,095 402,834 432,942 463,419 494,265 525,479 557,062 4,193,634

Subtotal 10,683,664 11,752,914 12,835,945 13,932,758 15,043,326 16,167,676 17,305,807 18,457,694 19,623,362 20,802,785 156,605,931

Regional Paratransit

Alameda

AC Transit 1,069,842 1,176,914 1,285,367 1,395,200 1,506,410 1,619,000 1,732,971 1,848,318 1,965,046 2,083,151 15,682,219

LAVTA 62,173 68,396 74,698 81,081 87,544 94,087 100,710 107,414 114,197 121,061 911,362

Union City 41,058 45,167 49,329 53,544 57,812 62,133 66,507 70,933 75,413 79,945 601,839

Contra Costa

AC Transit 251,112 276,244 301,699 327,479 353,582 380,009 406,760 433,834 461,233 488,954 3,680,907

CCCTA 343,444 377,817 412,633 447,891 483,592 519,737 556,324 593,353 630,825 668,740 5,034,355

ECCTA 181,109 199,235 217,595 236,188 255,014 274,074 293,368 312,895 332,655 352,649 2,654,783

WCCTA 54,732 60,209 65,758 71,377 77,066 82,826 88,657 94,558 100,529 106,571 802,283

Marin 160,222 176,257 192,499 208,948 225,603 242,465 259,533 276,808 294,290 311,977 2,348,603

Napa 129,938 142,942 156,114 169,454 182,961 196,636 210,478 224,488 238,665 253,009 1,904,686

San Francisco 930,737 1,023,888 1,118,240 1,213,791 1,310,542 1,408,493 1,507,644 1,607,994 1,709,545 1,812,293 13,643,167

San Mateo 458,898 504,826 551,346 598,458 646,160 694,455 743,341 792,819 842,888 893,548 6,726,739

Santa Clara 1,314,336 1,445,878 1,579,116 1,714,049 1,850,674 1,988,995 2,129,011 2,270,720 2,414,124 2,559,220 19,266,122

Solano 358,823 394,735 431,110 467,948 505,248 543,010 581,236 619,923 659,074 698,686 5,259,794

Sonoma 513,957 565,396 617,497 670,261 723,687 777,776 832,528 887,941 944,018 1,000,756 7,533,817

Subtotal 5,870,381 6,457,905 7,053,001 7,655,669 8,265,896 8,883,696 9,509,068 10,141,998 10,782,501 11,430,561 86,050,676

Lifeline

Alameda 2,611,837 2,873,236 3,138,005 3,406,143 3,677,644 3,952,514 4,230,753 4,512,355 4,797,326 5,085,659 38,285,472

Contra Costa 1,475,121 1,622,755 1,772,292 1,923,731 2,077,070 2,232,312 2,389,457 2,548,501 2,709,448 2,872,293 21,622,980

Marin 286,528 315,205 344,251 373,666 403,451 433,605 464,129 495,022 526,284 557,916 4,200,057

Napa 241,252 265,397 289,854 314,621 339,700 365,089 390,790 416,801 443,123 469,756 3,536,383

San Francisco 1,440,566 1,584,741 1,730,775 1,878,668 2,028,415 2,180,020 2,333,483 2,488,802 2,645,978 2,805,009 21,116,457

San Mateo 833,428 916,840 1,001,327 1,086,889 1,173,524 1,261,234 1,350,019 1,439,877 1,530,811 1,622,817 12,216,767

Santa Clara 2,608,696 2,869,781 3,134,232 3,402,047 3,673,222 3,947,761 4,225,665 4,506,929 4,791,557 5,079,544 38,239,434

Solano 639,147 703,115 767,907 833,524 899,963 967,227 1,035,315 1,104,227 1,173,962 1,244,521 9,368,908

Sonoma 861,737 947,982 1,035,338 1,123,806 1,213,384 1,304,073 1,395,874 1,488,784 1,582,806 1,677,938 12,631,721

Subtotal 10,998,312 12,099,052 13,213,980 14,343,096 15,486,372 16,643,835 17,815,486 19,001,297 20,201,296 21,415,454 161,218,180

MTC Regional Coordination Program 10,117,550 11,130,142 12,155,785 13,194,479 14,246,200 15,310,972 16,388,795 17,479,644 18,583,545 19,700,472 148,307,584

Grand Total $37,669,907 $41,440,013 $45,258,711 $49,126,002 $53,041,794 $57,006,179 $61,019,156 $65,080,633 $69,190,704 $73,349,272 $552,182,371

Attachment A-3

AB 1107 Revenue ForecastFY 2015/16 - 2024/25 SRTP Revenue Forecast Page 7 of 8


Apportionment


BART (1/2-cent Sales Tax)

BART 218,424,000 223,479,000 228,651,000 233,943,000 239,358,000 244,896,000 250,563,000 256,362,000 262,293,000 268,362,000 2,426,331,000

AB1107

AC Transit 36,404,000 37,246,500 38,108,500 38,990,500 39,893,000 40,816,000 41,760,500 42,727,000 43,715,500 44,727,000 404,388,500

SFMTA 36,404,000 37,246,500 38,108,500 38,990,500 39,893,000 40,816,000 41,760,500 42,727,000 43,715,500 44,727,000 404,388,500

Subtotal 72,808,000 74,493,000 76,217,000 77,981,000 79,786,000 81,632,000 83,521,000 85,454,000 87,431,000 89,454,000 808,777,000

Grand Total $291,232,000 $297,972,000 $304,868,000 $311,924,000 $319,144,000 $326,528,000 $334,084,000 $341,816,000 $349,724,000 $357,816,000 $3,235,108,000

Attachment A-4

TDA: FTA Formula Funds Revenue ForecastFY 2015/16 - 2024/25 SRTP Revenue Forecast Page 8 of 8


Apportionment


5307

San Francisco-Oakland 130,370,829 132,456,750 134,576,294 136,729,608 138,917,307 141,140,003 143,398,312 145,692,847 148,024,222 150,392,438 1,401,698,611

San Jose 36,687,493 37,274,489 37,870,948 38,476,909 39,092,546 39,718,033 40,353,541 40,999,243 41,655,312 42,321,749 394,450,262

Concord 21,233,611 21,573,346 21,918,558 22,269,271 22,625,583 22,987,595 23,355,408 23,729,121 24,108,834 24,494,547 228,295,875

Antioch 6,194,914 6,294,032 6,394,747 6,497,068 6,601,022 6,706,639 6,813,949 6,922,980 7,033,761 7,146,293 66,605,405

Santa Rosa 4,338,553 4,407,969 4,478,504 4,550,164 4,622,967 4,696,935 4,772,088 4,848,447 4,926,032 5,004,843 46,646,503

Vallejo 3,461,238 3,516,617 3,572,889 3,630,058 3,688,140 3,747,150 3,807,107 3,868,025 3,929,921 3,992,795 37,213,939

Fairfield 2,558,646 2,599,584 2,641,182 2,683,442 2,726,378 2,770,000 2,814,322 2,859,354 2,905,109 2,951,588 27,509,605

Vacaville 1,759,754 1,787,910 1,816,519 1,845,585 1,875,115 1,905,117 1,935,599 1,966,571 1,998,040 2,030,007 18,920,216

Napa 1,577,733 1,602,977 1,628,627 1,654,686 1,681,162 1,708,061 1,735,390 1,763,159 1,791,373 1,820,032 16,963,200

Livermore 1,519,859 1,544,176 1,568,886 1,593,989 1,619,493 1,645,405 1,671,733 1,698,482 1,725,661 1,753,270 16,340,956

Gilroy-Morgan Hill 1,490,917 1,514,772 1,539,011 1,563,636 1,588,654 1,614,073 1,639,899 1,666,139 1,692,801 1,719,884 16,029,785

Petaluma 1,135,214 1,153,378 1,171,834 1,190,584 1,209,634 1,228,988 1,248,652 1,268,632 1,288,933 1,309,554 12,205,402

Subtotal 212,328,759 215,726,000 219,178,000 222,685,000 226,248,000 229,868,000 233,546,000 237,283,000 241,080,000 244,937,000 2,282,879,759

5337

San Francisco-Oakland 116,555,507 118,420,475 120,315,186 122,240,208 124,196,213 126,183,201 128,201,847 130,252,823 132,336,804 134,454,462 1,253,156,726

San Jose 24,913,825 25,312,463 25,717,459 26,128,934 26,547,031 26,971,751 27,403,238 27,841,636 28,287,088 28,739,739 267,863,165

Concord 27,064,352 27,497,400 27,937,355 28,384,348 28,838,535 29,299,916 29,768,649 30,244,888 30,728,792 31,220,515 290,984,751

Antioch 4,511,475 4,583,662 4,657,000 4,731,511 4,807,221 4,884,131 4,962,266 5,041,652 5,122,316 5,204,284 48,505,516

Subtotal 173,045,159 175,814,000 178,627,000 181,485,000 184,389,000 187,339,000 190,336,000 193,381,000 196,475,000 199,619,000 1,860,510,159

5339

San Francisco-Oakland 7,019,279 7,131,586 7,245,742 7,361,484 7,479,339 7,598,780 7,720,336 7,844,005 7,969,259 8,096,628 75,466,438

San Jose 2,910,278 2,956,842 3,004,173 3,052,160 3,101,025 3,150,547 3,200,945 3,252,220 3,304,152 3,356,960 31,289,301

Concord 876,973 891,004 905,266 919,727 934,451 949,374 964,561 980,012 995,661 1,011,574 9,428,604

Antioch 458,772 466,112 473,573 481,138 488,841 496,647 504,592 512,675 520,861 529,186 4,932,397

Santa Rosa 485,733 493,505 501,405 509,414 517,569 525,835 534,246 542,804 551,472 560,286 5,222,269

Vallejo 393,596 399,894 406,295 412,785 109,298 426,091 432,907 439,842 446,865 454,007 3,921,580

Fairfield 289,449 294,080 298,788 303,561 308,420 313,346 318,358 323,458 328,623 333,875 3,111,958

Vacaville 202,067 205,300 208,586 211,918 215,311 218,750 222,249 225,809 229,415 233,081 2,172,487

Napa 177,016 179,848 182,727 185,646 188,618 191,630 194,695 197,814 200,973 204,185 1,903,150

Livermore 175,014 177,814 180,661 183,546 186,485 189,463 192,494 195,577 198,700 201,876 1,881,631

Gilroy-Morgan Hill 164,432 167,063 169,738 172,449 175,210 178,008 180,855 183,752 186,687 189,670 1,767,865

Petaluma 128,889 130,951 133,047 135,172 137,336 139,530 141,762 144,032 146,332 148,671 1,385,723

Subtotal 13,281,498 13,494,000 13,710,000 13,929,000 14,152,000 14,378,000 14,608,000 14,842,000 15,079,000 15,320,000 142,793,498

Grand Total $398,655,416 $405,034,000 $411,515,000 $418,099,000 $424,789,000 $431,585,000 $438,490,000 $445,506,000 $452,634,000 $459,876,000 $4,286,183,416

TFWG Item 7 TO: Transit Finance Working Group DATE:...

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Transcript of TFWG Item 7 TO: Transit Finance Working Group DATE:...