TFEIP Workshop, Istanbul, May 2013 Emissions data for of heavy metal and POP modelling Oleg...
-
Upload
kristian-riley -
Category
Documents
-
view
216 -
download
3
description
Transcript of TFEIP Workshop, Istanbul, May 2013 Emissions data for of heavy metal and POP modelling Oleg...
TFEIP Workshop, Istanbul, May 2013
Emissions data for of heavy metal and POP modelling
Oleg Travnikov, Alexey Gusev, Ilia Ilyin, Olga Rozovskaya, Victor
Shatalov
TFEIP Workshop, Istanbul, May 2013
Requirements to emissions data for modelling
• Spatially resolved data for the whole EMEP region• Multi-year emissions for assessment of long-term
trends• Additional emission parameters:
- Chemical speciation and congener composition- Temporal variation of emissions- Height of emission sources
• Historical emissions and emissions to other media for multi-media modelling
• Emissions in other regions/continents for assessment of intercontinental transport
TFEIP Workshop, Istanbul, May 2013
EMEP officially reported emissions data
0
20
40
60
80
100
Aus
tria
Bel
arus
Bul
garia
Cro
atia
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
epub
licD
enm
ark
Est
onia
Finl
and
Fran
ceG
erm
any
Hun
gary
Irela
ndLa
tvia
Liec
hten
stei
nM
aced
onia
Mon
aco
Net
herla
nds
Nor
way
Pol
and
Por
tuga
lR
ep. o
f Mol
dova
Ser
bia
Slo
veni
aS
pain
Sw
eden
Sw
itzer
land
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom Ita
lyM
onte
negr
oA
lban
iaS
lova
kia
Rus
sian
Fed
erat
ion
Mal
taLi
thua
nia
Rom
ania
Ukr
aine
Luxe
mbo
urg
Bel
gium
Arm
enia
Kyr
gyzs
tan
Gre
ece
Aze
rbai
jan
Bos
nia
& H
erz.
Geo
rgia
Icel
and
Kaz
akhs
tan
Tajik
ista
nTu
rkey
Turk
men
ista
nU
zbek
ista
n
Dat
a co
mpl
eten
ess,
%
Completeness of reported HMs emission totals for 1990-2011
Complete datasets of emission totals are available for 28 countries There is no national emissions data for 9 EMEP countries
TFEIP Workshop, Istanbul, May 2013
EMEP officially reported emissions data
0
20
40
60
80
100
Aus
tria
Bul
garia
Cro
atia
Cyp
rus
Den
mar
kE
ston
iaFi
nlan
dFr
ance
Ger
man
yH
unga
ryIc
elan
dIre
land
Latv
iaN
ethe
rland
sP
olan
dP
ortu
gal
Rep
. of M
oldo
vaS
erbi
aS
love
nia
Spa
inS
wed
enU
nite
d K
ingd
om Italy
Mon
tene
gro
Alb
ania
Bel
arus
Slo
vaki
aLi
echt
enst
ein
Mon
aco
Nor
way
Sw
itzer
land
Cze
ch R
epub
licB
elgi
umR
oman
iaR
ussi
an F
eder
atio
nLi
thua
nia
Luxe
mbo
urg
Geo
rgia
Mal
taU
krai
neM
aced
onia
Arm
enia
Kyr
gyzs
tan
Aze
rbai
jan
Bos
nia
& H
erz.
Gre
ece
Kaz
akhs
tan
Turk
eyTa
jikis
tan
Turk
men
ista
nU
zbek
ista
n
Dat
a co
mpl
eten
ess,
%
Completeness of reported POPs emission totals for 1990-2011
Complete datasets of emission totals are available for 22 countries There is no national emissions data for 8 EMEP countries
TFEIP Workshop, Istanbul, May 2013
Data completeness: Emission sectors
Contribution of major source categories to HCB emissions
Public electricity and heat production (1A1a)
Road transport (1A3)
Iron and steel production (2C1)
Agriculture (4G)
Waste incineration (6C)
Other
France Spain United Kingdom
TFEIP Workshop, Istanbul, May 2013
EMEP domain
Spatial distribution and gaps filling
- National totals - TNO totals
t cell-1 y-1
Emission totals: Reported data (40 countries) TNO inventory for 2000 and
projections for 2010
Gridded data: Reported grids (27 countries) TNO inventory for 2000 and
projections for 2010 CGEIC global Pb emissions
inventory (1°×1°) for 1989 scaled to present
Example: Pb anthropogenic emissions in 2011
TFEIP Workshop, Istanbul, May 2013
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
HgHCB
PCDD/FsBaP PCB Pb Cd
Contribution of regional vs. global sources to HM and POP pollution
Global sources
EMEP sources
Hg deposition over the globe and in EMEP region (2010)
Global sources and intercontinental transport
TFEIP Workshop, Istanbul, May 2013
Available ‘expert estimates’Dataset Chemicals Years ResolutionEuropeTNO inventory Pb, Cd, Hg,
BaP, PCDD/Fs, HCB
2000, 2010/20
(projections)
50×50 km2
POPCYCLING-Baltic
BaP, PCDD/Fs, HCB
1970-1995 50×50 km2
ESPREME Pb, Cd, Hg, … 2000 50×50 km2
DROPS PCDD/Fs, PCBs 2000 50×50 km2
GlobalNILU/CGEIC Pb 1989 1°×1°AMAP/UNEP Hg 2010 0.5°×0.5°Tao et al., 2009 PAHs 2004 n/aBailey et al., 2001
HCB 1995 n/a
NILU inventory PCBs 1930-2100 1°×1°No global data for Cd and PCDD/Fs
TFEIP Workshop, Istanbul, May 2013
Chemical speciation of emissions: Hg
Hg species: Hg0, Hg(II)gas, Hg(II)part
Reported emissions: total HgExpert estimates: Axenfeld et al., 1991; Pacyna et al., 2001
Effect of emission speciation on Hg deposition (2010)
All Hg emissions as Hg0 All emissions as Hg(II)
TFEIP Workshop, Istanbul, May 2013
Chemical speciation of emissions: PAHs
PAH indicator compounds: B[a]P, B[b]F, B[k]F, IPReported emissions: depends on a countryExpert estimates: TNO inventory
No data5 countries (11%)
All 4 PAHs30 countries (64%)
Only some PAHs5 countries (11%)
Sum of 4 PAHs7 countries (14%)
Reporting of PAHs emissions (2011)
TFEIP Workshop, Istanbul, May 2013
Chemical speciation of emissions: PCDD/Fs
PCDD/F composition: 17 toxic congenersReported emissions: total toxicity equivalentExpert estimates: POPCYCLING-Baltic project
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
TCD
F12
PeC
DF
23P
eCD
F14
HxC
DF
16H
xCD
F23
HxC
DF
19H
xCD
F78
HpC
DF
89H
pCD
FO
CD
FTC
DD
PeC
DD
4HxC
DD
6HxC
DD
7HxC
DD
HpC
DD
OC
DD
40%Congener composition of PCDD/Fs emissions (EMEP region)
TFEIP Workshop, Istanbul, May 2013
Temporal variation of emissionsSectors of BaP emissions in
EMEP countries (2010)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
OthersWaste incinerationIndustrial processesRoad transportResidential heating
Industry and road transport (Schaap et al., 2005)
0
5
10
15
20
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Em
issi
ons,
t/m
onth
Industrial processesRoad transport
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Em
issi
ons,
mg/
m2 /d
ay
Jan
Dec
NovOct
SepAugJu
l
Jun
MayApr
Mar
Feb
Residential heating (Aulinger et al., 2010)
Single location in Czech Republic
Seasonal variation of BaP air concentration at Kosetice (CZ3)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Ju
n
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
BaP
air
conc
entra
tion,
ng/
m3 Observations
No variation
ObservationsModel (no variation)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Ju
n
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
BaP
air
conc
entra
tion,
ng/
m3 Observations
No variation
ObservationsModel (emission)
TFEIP Workshop, Istanbul, May 2013
Arcelor-Mittal Ostrava Steel PlantEmission: 859 kg/y (26%)
Prunéřov II Power StationEmission: 207 t/y (6%)
Contribution (%)
Contribution of large point sources to Cd deposition
Note: Contribution of single LPS can exceed 10-20% of Cd total anthropogenic deposition over large areas of the country
Emissions from large point sources
TFEIP Workshop, Istanbul, May 2013
h
Required parameters: Stack height Stack diameter Gas outflow velocity Gas temperature
Emissions from large point sources
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
Jan
Feb
Mar Apr
May Ju
n
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Em
issi
on h
eigh
t, m
Prunéřov II Power Plant
Estimates of effective emissions height (Brigg’s
approach)
Stack height - 300 m
Change in annual Pb deposition due to vertical redistribution of
emissions Percents
TFEIP Workshop, Istanbul, May 2013
HCB air concentration (2011)
EMEP anthropogenic
sources
Global anthropogenic
sourcesGlobal
secondary sources
EMEP secondary
sources
EMEP
Historical emissions of POPs
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
AirSoilOcean
HCB accumulation in different media
0
5
10
15
20
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
HC
B e
mis
sion
, kt/y
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
HCB global emissions (1945-2010)
TFEIP Workshop, Istanbul, May 2013
Emissions of POPs to other media
PCDD/Fs emissions in Europe(17 EU countries)
to land85%
to air15%
[Wenborn et al., 1999]
PCDD/Fs emissions to land
0 5 10 15Emission to land, kg I-TEQ
Pesticide production
Accidental fires
Waste incineration
Waste disposal
Pesticide use
Other
PCDD/F air concentration(model vs. observations)
0.1
1
10
100
1000
0.1 1 10 100 1000
Observed, fg TEQ/m3M
odel
led,
fg T
EQ
/m3
Emission to air only
0.1
1
10
100
1000
0.1 1 10 100 1000
Observed, fg TEQ/m3M
odel
led,
fg T
EQ
/m3
Emission to air only
Emission to air & soil
Underestimation by a factor of
5
TFEIP Workshop, Istanbul, May 2013
Pb concentration in air (2007)
0
3
6
9
12
15
Jan
Feb
Mar Apr
May Ju
n
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Pb
conc
entra
tion,
ng/
m3
ObservedModel
0
3
6
9
12
15
Jan
Feb
Mar Apr
May Ju
n
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Pb
conc
entra
tion,
ng/
m3
Observed
ModelOptimized
Adjoint modelling Application of adjoint modelling for evaluation of emission
fields
Košetice (CZ3)
Adjoint model:An adjoint model to a CTM provides estimates of spatially resolved influence functions ∂C/∂E for a chosen receptor:
Applied approach:• Model simulation of influence
functions for particular receptor
• Analysis of the optimized fields from the view point of possible emission uncertainties
• Variational optimization of emission fields to minimize model-measurement discrepancies at selected receptor
ij
ijijR ΔEECΔC
Influence function for CZ3October 2007
Influence function
CZ3
TFEIP Workshop, Istanbul, May 2013
What can be improved?
Officially reported data:• Completeness of national totals and
gridded emissions• Emissions differentiation by source
categories and coverage of all emission sectors
• Information on large point sources (emissions, co-ordinates, height, etc.)
• Projections of future emissions• Uncertainty estimates or lower/upper
limits
TFEIP Workshop, Istanbul, May 2013
What can be improved?
Expert estimates:• Updated inventories for EMEP countries and
non-EMEP regions• Global scale emissions data (Hg, HCB)• Chemical speciation or congener composition
of emissions (Hg, PCDD/Fs, PAH, PCBs)• Temporal variation of emissions (e.g. by
sectors)• Historical emissions (HCB, PCDD/Fs, Hg)• Emissions to other media (soil, water)
TFEIP Workshop, Istanbul, May 2013
0
3
6
9
12
15
Jan
Feb
Mar Apr
May Ju
n
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Pb
conc
entra
tion,
ng/
m3
ObservedModel
Pb concentration in air (2007)
0
3
6
9
12
15
Jan
Feb
Mar Apr
May Ju
n
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Pb
conc
entra
tion,
ng/
m3
Observed
ModelOptimized
Optimized (anthrop.)
Application of adjoint modelling Optimization of HM anthropogenic emissions distribution
Changes of total Pb emission
0
200
400
600
Poland Ita
ly
France
German
y
Slovakia
Belgium
Czech
Rep
.
Netherland
s
Hungary
Switzerla
nd
Austria
Pb
emis
sion
s, t/
y Original
Optimized
October 2007
Influence function
CZ3
Optimization coefficients
CZ3
Anthrop. emissions