Texas Plant Protection Conference ‘Climate of Change’ International Trade Relations Parr Rosson...
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Conference Conference ‘Climate of Change’ ‘Climate of Change’ International Trade International Trade Relations Relations Parr Rosson Parr Rosson Professor & Director Professor & Director Center for North American Center for North American Studies Studies Texas A&M University Texas A&M University C NAS
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Texas Plant Protection ConferenceTexas Plant Protection Conference‘Climate of Change’‘Climate of Change’
International Trade RelationsInternational Trade Relations
Parr RossonParr Rosson
Professor & DirectorProfessor & Director
Center for North American StudiesCenter for North American Studies
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University
CNAS
The Changing Climate of The Changing Climate of TradeTrade
AgroterrorismAnimal Disease OutbreaksNew Agreements & Disputes
CNAS
U.S. Agricultural Trade, 1970-2005F
Source: U.S. Trade Internet System, www.fas.usda.gov/ustrade
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005F$0.0
$10.0
$20.0
$30.0
$40.0
$50.0
$60.0
$70.0
Billion Dollars Exports Imports
Trade Surplus Shrinks
Securing U.S. InfrastructureSecuring U.S. Infrastructure
Border/Trade InfrastructureBorder/Trade Infrastructure– 5,252 mile border with Canada5,252 mile border with Canada– 1,989 mile border with Mexico1,989 mile border with Mexico– 300 Land Ports of Entry-Exit300 Land Ports of Entry-Exit– 95,000 miles Coastline & Waterways95,000 miles Coastline & Waterways– 300 U.S. Seaports300 U.S. Seaports– 429 Commercial Airports429 Commercial Airports
U.S. Customs/Immigration Agents in U.S. Customs/Immigration Agents in Canada & More Ag. InspectorsCanada & More Ag. Inspectors
CNAS
Agroterror & Protective Agroterror & Protective ResponseResponse
Post CUSTA/NAFTA-Who’s in Charge??Post CUSTA/NAFTA-Who’s in Charge??Increased Truck/Rail/Noncommercial TrafficIncreased Truck/Rail/Noncommercial Traffic
Focus on Drug Interdiction, Expediting Focus on Drug Interdiction, Expediting Cargo & Illegal ImmigrationCargo & Illegal Immigration
9/11/01- 9/11/01- “Crease In History”“Crease In History”– U.S. Customs in Charge at BordersU.S. Customs in Charge at Borders
Focus on Terrorism, Illegal Immigration, Focus on Terrorism, Illegal Immigration, Drugs, Expediting CargoDrugs, Expediting Cargo
New Agencies & RulesNew Agencies & RulesDept. of Homeland Security
– APHIS Inspectors Included– FDA Not Included
Bioterrorism Preparedness Act 2002– Administered by FDA
Register Notify Keep Records
US Borders ‘Last Line of Defense’ US Borders ‘Last Line of Defense’ Not FirstNot First
CNAS
Mad Cows & Other Mad Cows & Other Monsters!!Monsters!!
Alberta, Canada Direct Sale Steer Prices, Mid-month Mid-point, Jan 02 - Nov 04
Source: Alberta Agriculture, Food and Rural Development, www.agric.gov.ab.ca
Jan-02
Mar-02
Jul -02
Jan-03
May-03
Jun-03
Jul-03
Aug-03
Sep-03
Nov-03
Feb-04
Aug -04
Nov -04
$30
$50
$70
$90
$110
CN$/CWT
$106.0
$88.3
$41.5$36.2
$84.0
$107.0
$115.0
$70.8
$113.0
$77.4$75.0
$65.1
$79.8
BSE (5/20/2003)
US Fed Cattle Futures, Nov 03-Jan 04US Fed Cattle Futures, Nov 03-Jan 04
BSE12/23/03
*12/7/04
U.S. Meat Exports, 1970-May 2004
Source: ERS/USDA 2004
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20002004 (Jan-May)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,0001,000 Metric Tons
Broiler Meat
Beef
Pork
BSE Boost
BSE Decline
Russian Ban
U.S. Cattle and Hog Imports from Canada
Source: USDA/FAS
0.8 0.9
1.7
2.83.2
4.1 4.1 4.4
5.35.7
7.4
1.2 1.0 1.11.5 1.4 1.3
1.0 1.01.3
1.7
0.5
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20030.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Million Head
Hogs Cattle No Cattle Imports from Canada in 2004
US Cattle Imports from Mexico
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004F0
500
1000
1500
2000
1,000 Head1,653
1,390 F
Annual Avg. 800,000 Head
2004 is CNAS forecast
New AgreementsNew Agreements
U.N. Biosafety Protocol– United States Not a Member
Trade Agreements: 8 Approved,8 + Pending
WTO Negotiations-Doha RoundTrade Agreements w/Chile,
Australia, Others
CNAS
Australia ‘04Australia ‘04
Bahrain ‘04Bahrain ‘04CAFTA ‘04CAFTA ‘04
Chile ‘04Chile ‘04
FTAA ’06?
Morocco ‘04Morocco ‘04
Southern African Southern African Customs Union ‘05Customs Union ‘05
Singapore ‘03Singapore ‘03
Jordan ‘03Jordan ‘03
U.S. Trade Agreements-3d Largest MarketU.S. Trade Agreements-3d Largest Market
NAFTA ‘94NAFTA ‘94 Israel ‘85Israel ‘85
CUSTA, ‘89CUSTA, ‘89
Andean FTA Andean FTA 0505
Panama ‘05Panama ‘05
Thailand ‘05Thailand ‘05
MEFTA ‘06
World Average Agricultural Tariffs, 2000
115
85
55
4030
25
12
South
Asia
Carib
bean Is
lands
Centra
l Am
erica
South
Am
erica
Europea
n Union
North
Am
erica
United S
tates
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140 Bound Average
World Average
62%
Percent
Jumping Genes!Jumping Genes!
Frankenfoods!
DisputesDisputesMexico Transgenic MaizeEU & China GMO RulesU.S./Mexico Water DisputeAnti-dumping Disputes, Mostly
NAFTA (lumber & hogs)Canadian Cattle LawsuitWTO Cotton Case Ruling Due
March ‘05CNAS
Nuevo Leon
Tamaulipas
LRGV
Rio Conchos•Amistad Reservoir
•Falcon Reservoir
Presidio
ChihuahuaDelicias
Pecos River
Rio Grande
•Ft. Quitman
65% of Inflows65% of Inflows
84% Capacity37% Capacity
Rio Bravo del Norte
Tributaries & Tributaries & ReservoirsReservoirs
Boquilla
112/7/04IBWC
ImplicationsImplications
Complex, Convoluted IssuesDegree of Trade Dependence Determines
Potential Severity Disruptions to TradeManaging U.S. Borders Huge JobAs Trade Agreements Implemented, Expect
More DisputesWTO Cotton Case, Major Farm Program
ImplicationsU.S./Mexico Water Dispute Abated, Not
Solved CNAS
CNASThanks!
Parr [email protected]
Center for North American Studies
“Informed Decisions for Global Change”
