Texas Leadership Roundtable Austin, Texas November 10, 2016 · 2016-11-09 · Roundtable Austin,...
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@TexasDemography Texas Demographic Trends and Water Texas Leadership Roundtable Austin, Texas November 10, 2016
Transcript of Texas Leadership Roundtable Austin, Texas November 10, 2016 · 2016-11-09 · Roundtable Austin,...
@TexasDemography
Texas Demographic Trends and Water
Texas Leadership Roundtable
Austin, Texas
November 10, 2016
Growing States, 2000-2015
2
2000
Population
2010
Population
2015
Population
Numeric
Change
2010-2015
Percent
Change
2000-2010
United States281,421,906 308,745,538 321,418,820 12,673,282 4.1%
Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 27,469,114 2,323,553 9.2%
California33,871,648 37,253,956 39,144,818 1,890,862 5.1%
Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 20,271,272 1,469,962 7.8%
Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 10,214,860 527,207 5.4%
North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 10,042,802 507,319 5.3%
Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 6,828,065 436,048 6.8%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count, 2015 Population Estimates.
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Numeric Change (Millions) Population (Millions)
All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012-2014 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Total Population and Population Change in Texas, 1950-2014
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts and Population Estimates3
89.5% 86.7%
41.5%
65.9%
49.7% 53.7%
10.5% 13.3%
58.5%
34.1%
50.3% 46.3%
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Migration
Natural Increase
Components of Population Change by Percent
in Texas, 1950-2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates
Dallas
Howard
FoardFloyd
Brewster
FranklinHunt
Newton
Starr
Kinney
Collingsworth
Tom
Green
Coleman
Brazoria
Leon
Duval
Lamb
Morris
Smith
Jackson
Medina
Wheeler
Dallam
Callahan
Lamar
Coryell
Gaines
Kendall
Nacogdoches
Milam
Hays
Willacy
Johnson
Reagan
Webb
Shackelford
Bowie
Scurry
Kenedy
Somervell
Oldham
Taylor
King
Borden
Walker
Stephens
Deaf
Smith
Roberts
Tyler
Val
Verde
Brown
Parker
Harris
Zapata
Red
River
Karnes
Palo
Pinto
Glasscock
Shelby
Wood
Crosby
Refugio
Burnet
Sterling
Montgomery
San
Augustine
Rains
Nueces
Jack
Swisher
Camp
Brazos
Orange
Colorado
Pecos
Cochran
Parmer
Freestone
Winkler
Wichita
Gray
Schleicher
Hardeman
TravisGillespie
Yoakum
Fayette
Uvalde
Grimes
Van
Zandt
Throckmorton
Falls
Grayson
Ellis
Hall
Dickens
TrinityReeves
Marion
Terrell
Lynn
La Salle
Jasper
Jones
Castro
Victoria
Kleberg
Briscoe
Clay
Matagorda
Brooks
Runnels
Carson
Liberty
Lee
Hale
Bexar
Garza
Montague
Upton
Hamilton
FisherDawson
Dimmit
Hutchinson
Llano
Presidio
Eastland
Wharton
Rusk
Tarrant
Lavaca
Childress
Hidalgo
Kaufman
Moore
Menard
Edwards
San
Patricio
Terry
Crockett
Houston
Waller
Coke
Ward
Titus
Lampasas
Haskell
Martin
Atascosa
Hemphill
Hartley
Young
Burleson
Hardin
Gonzales
McMullen
Erath
Galveston
Hopkins
McLennan
MadisonMcCulloch
Donley
Kent
Real
Sutton
Midland
Hudspeth
Zavala
Harrison
ComancheMitchell
Navarro
Crane
Lubbock
Wise
Washington
Jeff
Davis
El Paso
Gregg
Williamson
Lipscomb
Mason
Henderson
Hansford
Chambers
Hill
Potter
Jim
Wells
DeltaStonewall
Ector
Cameron
Maverick
Collin
Baylor
Panola
Guadalupe
Bastrop
Austin
Andrews
Anderson
Blanco
DeWitt
Bandera
Bell
Aransas
Archer
Armstrong
Bee
Angelina
Bailey
Jefferson
Frio
Fannin
Goliad
Loving
Cass
Fort
Bend
Bosque
Hockley
San
Saba
Kerr
Mills
Cooke
Wilbarger
Irion
Caldwell
Jim
Hogg
Culberson
Upshur
Cherokee
Denton
Concho
Randall
Kimble
Knox
Polk
Hood
San
Jacinto
Robertson
Wilson
Nolan
Cottle
Calhoun
Rockwall
Live
Oak
Motley
Sherman
Ochiltree
Comal
Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Vintage Population Estimates
tl_2010_48_county10
POPESTIMATE2015
112 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 500,000
500,001 - 4,538,028
5
Major Texas Aquifers
Drought Conditions in Texas
November 1, 2016
https://waterdatafortexas.org/drought/drought-monitor
Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2015 Vintage.
99 counties lost
population over the
five year period.
tl_2010_48_county10
NPOPCH1015
-1,913 - 0
1 - 1,000
1,001 - 20,000
20,001 - 80,000
80,001 - 444,952
8
Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2015 Vintage.
tl_2010_48_county10
PctPOPCH1015
-14.9% - 0%
0.1% - 2.5%
2.6% - 5%
5.1% - 10%
10.1% - 36.6%
9
Estimated Net-Domestic Migrants by County, Texas, 2014-2015
10
Dallas
Howard
FoardFloyd
Brewster
Franklin
Hunt
Newton
Starr
Kinney
Collingsworth
Tom
Green
Coleman
Brazoria
Leon
Duval
Lamb
Morris
Smith
Jackson
Medina
Wheeler
Dallam
Callahan
Lamar
Coryell
Gaines
Kendall
Nacogdoches
Milam
Hays
Willacy
Johnson
Reagan
Webb
Shackelford
Bowie
Scurry
Kenedy
Somervell
Oldham
Taylor
King
Borden
Walker
Stephens
Deaf Smith
Roberts
Tyler
Val Verde
Brown
Parker
Harris
Zapata
Red
River
Karnes
Palo
Pinto
GlasscockShelby
Wood
Crosby
Refugio
Burnet
Sterling
Montgomery
San Augustine
Rains
Nueces
Jack
Swisher
Camp
Brazos
Orange
Colorado
Pecos
Cochran
Parmer
FreestoneWinkler
Wichita
Gray
Schleicher
Hardeman
TravisGillespie
Yoakum
Fayette
Uvalde
Grimes
Van
Zandt
Throckmorton
Falls
Grayson
Ellis
Hall
Dickens
Trinity
Reeves
Marion
Terrell
Lynn
La
Salle
Jasper
Jones
Castro
Victoria
Kleberg
Briscoe
Clay
Matagorda
Brooks
Runnels
Carson
Liberty
Lee
Hale
Bexar
Garza
Montague
Upton
Hamilton
FisherDawson
Dimmit
Hutchinson
Llano
Presidio
Eastland
Sabine
Wharton
Rusk
Tarrant
Lavaca
Childress
Hidalgo
Kaufman
Moore
Menard
Edwards
San
Patricio
Terry
Crockett
Houston
Waller
Coke
Ward
Titus
Lampasas
Haskell
Martin
Atascosa
Hemphill
Hartley
Young
BurlesonHardin
Gonzales
McMullen
Erath
Galveston
Hopkins
McLennan
Madison
McCulloch
Donley
Kent
Real
Sutton
Midland
Hudspeth
Zavala
Harrison
Comanche
Mitchell
Navarro
Crane
Lubbock
Wise
Washington
Jeff Davis
El Paso
Gregg
Williamson
Lipscomb
Mason
Henderson
Hansford
Chambers
Hill
Potter
Jim
Wells
Delta
Stonewall
Ector
Cameron
Maverick
Collin
Baylor
Panola
Guadalupe
Bastrop
Austin
Andrews
Anderson
Blanco
DeWitt
Bandera
Bell
Aransas
Archer
Armstrong
Bee
Angelina
Bailey
Jefferson
Frio
Fannin
Goliad
Loving
Cass
Fort Bend
Bosque
Hockley
San
Saba
Kerr
Mills
Cooke
Wilbarger
Irion
Caldwell
Jim
Hogg
Culberson
Upshur
Cherokee
Denton
Concho
Randall
Kimble
Knox
Polk
Hood
San Jacinto
Robertson
Wilson
Nolan
Cottle
Calhoun
Rockwall
Live
Oak
Motley
Sherman Ochiltree
Comal
tl_2010_48_county10
DOMESTICMIG2015
-12,004 - -2,500
-2,499 - 0
1 - 2,499
2,500 - 9,999
10,000 - 18,500
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2015 Vintage.
Estimated Net-International Migrants by County, Texas, 2014-2015
11Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2015 Vintage.
Dallas
Howard
FoardFloyd
Brewster
Franklin
Hunt
Newton
Starr
Kinney
Collingsworth
Tom
Green
Coleman
Brazoria
Leon
Duval
Lamb
Morris
Smith
Jackson
Medina
Wheeler
Dallam
Callahan
Lamar
Coryell
Gaines
Kendall
Nacogdoches
Milam
Hays
Willacy
Johnson
Reagan
Webb
Shackelford
Bowie
Scurry
Kenedy
Somervell
Oldham
Taylor
King
Borden
Walker
Stephens
Deaf Smith
Roberts
Tyler
Val Verde
Brown
Parker
Harris
Zapata
Red
River
Karnes
Palo
Pinto
GlasscockShelby
Wood
Crosby
Refugio
Burnet
Sterling
Montgomery
San Augustine
Rains
Nueces
Jack
Swisher
Camp
Brazos
Orange
Colorado
Pecos
Cochran
Parmer
FreestoneWinkler
Wichita
Gray
Schleicher
Hardeman
TravisGillespie
Yoakum
Fayette
Uvalde
Grimes
Van
Zandt
Throckmorton
Falls
Grayson
Ellis
Hall
Dickens
Trinity
Reeves
Marion
Terrell
Lynn
La
Salle
Jasper
Jones
Castro
Victoria
Kleberg
Briscoe
Clay
Matagorda
Brooks
Runnels
Carson
Liberty
Lee
Hale
Bexar
Garza
Montague
Upton
Hamilton
FisherDawson
Dimmit
Hutchinson
Llano
Presidio
Eastland
Sabine
Wharton
Rusk
Tarrant
Lavaca
Childress
Hidalgo
Kaufman
Moore
Menard
Edwards
San
Patricio
Terry
Crockett
Houston
Waller
Coke
Ward
Titus
Lampasas
Haskell
Martin
Atascosa
Hemphill
Hartley
Young
BurlesonHardin
Gonzales
McMullen
Erath
Galveston
Hopkins
McLennan
Madison
McCulloch
Donley
Kent
Real
Sutton
Midland
Hudspeth
Zavala
Harrison
Comanche
Mitchell
Navarro
Crane
Lubbock
Wise
Washington
Jeff Davis
El Paso
Gregg
Williamson
Lipscomb
Mason
Henderson
Hansford
Chambers
Hill
Potter
Jim
Wells
Delta
Stonewall
Ector
Cameron
Maverick
Collin
Baylor
Panola
Guadalupe
Bastrop
Austin
Andrews
Anderson
Blanco
DeWitt
Bandera
Bell
Aransas
Archer
Armstrong
Bee
Angelina
Bailey
Jefferson
Frio
Fannin
Goliad
Loving
Cass
Fort Bend
Bosque
Hockley
San
Saba
Kerr
Mills
Cooke
Wilbarger
Irion
Caldwell
Jim
Hogg
Culberson
Upshur
Cherokee
Denton
Concho
Randall
Kimble
Knox
Polk
Hood
San Jacinto
Robertson
Wilson
Nolan
Cottle
Calhoun
Rockwall
Live
Oak
Motley
Sherman Ochiltree
Comal
tl_2010_48_county10
INTERNATIONALMIG2015
-3 - 0
1 - 2,999
3,000 - 7,499
7,500 - 14,999
15,000 - 29,246
Estimated Net-Migrants by County, Texas, 2014-2015
12Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2015 Vintage.
Dallas
Howard
FoardFloyd
Brewster
Franklin
Hunt
Newton
Starr
Kinney
Collingsworth
Tom
Green
Coleman
Brazoria
Leon
Duval
Lamb
Morris
Smith
Jackson
Medina
Wheeler
Dallam
Callahan
Lamar
Coryell
Gaines
Kendall
Nacogdoches
Milam
Hays
Willacy
Johnson
Reagan
Webb
Shackelford
Bowie
Scurry
Kenedy
Somervell
Oldham
Taylor
King
Borden
Walker
Stephens
Deaf Smith
Roberts
Tyler
Val Verde
Brown
Parker
Harris
Zapata
Red
River
Karnes
Palo
Pinto
GlasscockShelby
Wood
Crosby
Refugio
Burnet
Sterling
Montgomery
San Augustine
Rains
Nueces
Jack
Swisher
Camp
Brazos
Orange
Colorado
Pecos
Cochran
Parmer
FreestoneWinkler
Wichita
Gray
Schleicher
Hardeman
TravisGillespie
Yoakum
Fayette
Uvalde
Grimes
Van
Zandt
Throckmorton
Falls
Grayson
Ellis
Hall
Dickens
Trinity
Reeves
Marion
Terrell
Lynn
La
Salle
Jasper
Jones
Castro
Victoria
Kleberg
Briscoe
Clay
Matagorda
Brooks
Runnels
Carson
Liberty
Lee
Hale
Bexar
Garza
Montague
Upton
Hamilton
FisherDawson
Dimmit
Hutchinson
Llano
Presidio
Eastland
Sabine
Wharton
Rusk
Tarrant
Lavaca
Childress
Hidalgo
Kaufman
Moore
Menard
Edwards
San
Patricio
Terry
Crockett
Houston
Waller
Coke
Ward
Titus
Lampasas
Haskell
Martin
Atascosa
Hemphill
Hartley
Young
BurlesonHardin
Gonzales
McMullen
Erath
Galveston
Hopkins
McLennan
Madison
McCulloch
Donley
Kent
Real
Sutton
Midland
Hudspeth
Zavala
Harrison
Comanche
Mitchell
Navarro
Crane
Lubbock
Wise
Washington
Jeff Davis
El Paso
Gregg
Williamson
Lipscomb
Mason
Henderson
Hansford
Chambers
Hill
Potter
Jim
Wells
Delta
Stonewall
Ector
Cameron
Maverick
Collin
Baylor
Panola
Guadalupe
Bastrop
Austin
Andrews
Anderson
Blanco
DeWitt
Bandera
Bell
Aransas
Archer
Armstrong
Bee
Angelina
Bailey
Jefferson
Frio
Fannin
Goliad
Loving
Cass
Fort Bend
Bosque
Hockley
San
Saba
Kerr
Mills
Cooke
Wilbarger
Irion
Caldwell
Jim
Hogg
Culberson
Upshur
Cherokee
Denton
Concho
Randall
Kimble
Knox
Polk
Hood
San Jacinto
Robertson
Wilson
Nolan
Cottle
Calhoun
Rockwall
Live
Oak
Motley
Sherman Ochiltree
Comal
tl_2010_48_county10
NETMIG2015
-8,690 - -2,500
-2,499 - 0
1 - 2,500
2,501 - 15,000
15,001 - 46,293
County
U.S. Rank
Population
Change
Population
Change
Percent of
Change from
Natural
Increase
Percent
Change
from
Migration
Percent
Change from
International
Migration
Harris 1 90,451 49.3% 50.7% 32.0%
Bexar 5 37,479 41.2% 58.8% 17.0%
Tarrant 6 36,152 46.3% 53.7% 20.2%
Dallas 9 33,760 68.1% 31.9% 39.0%
Fort Bend 13 29,437 20.7% 79.3% 16.5%
Collin 14 28,075 24.8% 75.2% 15.8%
Denton 16 25,820 25.5% 74.5% 11.7%
Travis 17 25,562 42.5% 57.5% 22.9%
Williamson 27 19,086 20.9% 79.1% 6.7%
Montgomery 29 18,505 19.2% 80.8% 9.9%*Dallas had net out domestic migration over this period.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Vintage Population Estimates
Top Counties for Numeric
Growth in Texas, 2014-2015
Top Counties for Percent
Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015
County U.S.
Rank
2014-2015
Percent
Population
Change
Percent
Change
from
Migration
Percent
Change from
International
Migration
Hays 1 5.2% 85.5% 1.9%Comal 2 4.5% 90.7% 2.1%
Fort Bend 4 4.3% 79.3% 16.5%Williamson 7 3.9% 79.1% 6.7%
Montgomery 10 3.6% 80.8% 9.9%Denton 12 3.4% 74.5% 11.7%
Ector 18 3.3% 63.1% 3.1%Midland 19 3.3% 66.2% 3.2%
Collin 23 3.2% 75.2% 15.8%Kaufman 25 3.1% 79.8% 3.2%
Parker 29 2.8% 89.8% 2.2%Brazos 32 2.8% 69.2% 27.4%
Guadalupe 38 2.7% 78.8% 4.6%Ellis 39 2.7% 77.2% 2.7%
*Among Counties with 10,000 or more population in 2014
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Vintage Population Estimates
Top 10 Gross Migration States for Domestic Migration to Texas, 2013
15
62,386
28,906
33,321
28,457
30,672
19,139
19,451
22,049
21,129
18,924
31,499
29,051
19,988
22,259
12,719
23,141
18,428
15,504
14,803
14,715
California
Oklahoma
Florida
Louisiana
Illinois
Colorado
Arizona
New Mexico
New York
Georgia
Out-Migrants From Texas
In-Migrants to Texas
U.S. Census Bureau ACS 1-Year PUMS,2013
Top 10 Destination Counties for Interstate Domestic Migration to Texas, 2009-2013
16
74,661
42,472
40,259
37,521
30,340
24,540
21,653
20,687
17,351
14,693
52,968
32,995
37,448
28,556
21,309
23,990
17,669
16,100
12,351
6,042
Net Migration=21,693
Net Migration=2,811
Net Migration=9,477
Net Migration=8,965
Net Migration=9,031
Net Migration=550
Net Migration=3,984
Net Migration=4,587
Net Migration=5,000
Net Migration=8,651
Harris
Bexar
Dallas
Tarrant
Travis
El Paso
Bell
Collin
Denton
Williamson
Domestic Out-MigrationDomestic In-Migration
U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Summary Data, 2009-2013
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Mill
ion
s
Zero Migration
0.5 of 2000-2010 Migration
2000-2010 Migration
Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050
17Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections
24
25
25
26
26
27
27
28
28
Mill
ion
s
Zero Migration
0.5 of 2000-2010 Migration
2000-2010 Migration
Estimates
Projected and Estimated Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2015
18Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections and U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates
Projected Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10
F6
-6,200 - 0
1 - 2,000
2,001 - 10,000
10,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 1,000,000
1,000,001 -3,480,000
Projected Percent Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10
F5
LT 0%
0-40%
41-100%
101-250%
251-500%
Contact
Office: (210) 458-6530
Email: [email protected]
Internet: demographics.texas.gov
Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.
@TexasDemography
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