Texas and Waco: Demographic Characteristics and Trends

38
Texas and Waco: Demographic Characteristics and Trends Waco Business League April 10, 2012 Waco, TX

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Texas and Waco: Demographic Characteristics and Trends. Waco Business League April 10, 2012 Waco, TX. Growing States, 2000-2010. 15.7% of numerical change in U.S. . Note: Population values are decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Texas and Waco: Demographic Characteristics and Trends

Texas and Waco: Demographic Characteristics and Trends

Waco Business LeagueApril 10, 2012

Waco, TX

Page 2: Texas and Waco: Demographic Characteristics and Trends

2000Population*

2010Population*

NumericalChange

2000-2010

PercentChange

2000-2010United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%

Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%

15.7% of numerical change in U.S.

Note: Population values are decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.

Growing States, 2000-2010

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Percent Change Due to

Year* PopulationNumericalChange**

PercentChange

NaturalIncrease

NetMigration

1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- --1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 24.2 93.91 6.091970 11,196,730 1,617,053 16.9 86.74 13.261980 14,229,191 3,032,461 27.1 41.58 58.421990 16,986,510 2,757,319 19.9 65.85 34.152000 20,851,820 3,865,310 22.8 49.65 50.352009 24,782,302 3,930,484 18.8 54.04 45.332010 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.62011 25,674,681 529,120 2.1 54.79 44.99

All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2009 and 2011 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau. ** Change is from previous decade/time period

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2011

Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center.

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Components of Change Texas and McLennan County, 2010 to 2011

Geographic AreaTotal

Population Change

Natural Increase

Vital Events Net Migration

Births Deaths Total Inter-national Domestic

Texas 529,120 288,479 493,650 205,171 238,956 93,641 145,315

McLennan County 3,658 1,792 4,197 2,405 1,855 477 1,378

49% 51%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division.

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Population Change in McLennan County, 1980-2010

County 1980 1990 2000 2010

McLennan 170,755 189,123 213,517 234,906

1980 1990 2000 2010150,000170,000190,000210,000230,000250,000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Census Counts 1980-2010.

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McLennan County Population by Year, 2000-2010

April 1, 2

000120002

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

2009

April 1, 2

010

July 1, 2

010200,000205,000210,000215,000220,000225,000230,000235,000240,000

McLennan County

6

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division.

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Demographic Characteristics of Waco, McLennan County and Texas

WacoMcLennan

County TexasPopulation, 2010 124,805 234,906 25,145,561Population, percent change, 2000 to 2010 9.7% 10.0% 20.6%Population, 2000 113,726 213,517 20,851,820Persons under 5 years, percent, 2010 7.7% 7.1% 7.7%Persons under 18 years, percent, 2010 24.7% 25.4% 27.3%Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2010 11.3% 12.5% 10.3%Female persons, percent, 2010 52.1% 51.4% 50.4%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Census Counts 2000 and 2010.

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Race and Ethnic Characteristics of Waco, McLennan County and Texas, 2010

WacoMcLennan

County TexasPercent White 59.2% 69.8% 70.4%

Percent Black 21.5% 14.8% 11.8%

Percent American Indian and Alaska Native 0.6% 0.6% 0.7%

Percent Asian 1.8% 1.4% 3.8%

Percent Native Hawaiian & Other Pacific Islander 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%

Percent 2 or More Races 2.8% 2.5% 2.7%

Percent Hispanic (any race) 29.6% 23.6% 37.6%

Percent White Not Hispanic 45.8% 58.9% 45.3%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Census Count 2010.

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Businesses by Ownership and Retail Sales for Waco, McLennan County andTexas

WacoMcLennan

County Texas

Total number of firms, 2007 7,912 16,888 2,164,852

Black-owned firms, percent, 2007 S 5.1% 7.1%American Indian- and Alaska Native-owned firms, percent, 2007 0.7% 0.7% 0.9%

Asian-owned firms, percent, 2007 S 1.6% 5.3%

Hispanic-owned firms, percent, 2007 S 8.9% 20.7%

Women-owned firms, percent, 2007 24.9% 28.4% 28.2%

Retail sales per capita, 2007 $16,068 $12,892 $13,061S – suppressed value due to small values

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. State and County QuickFacts.

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Housing and Households for Waco, McLennan County and Texas

WacoMcLennan

County Texas

Housing units, 2010 51,452 95,124 9,977,436

Homeownership rate, 2006-2010 46.6% 60.1% 64.8%Housing units in multi-unit structures, percent, 2006-2010 38.4% 24.3% 24.1%Median value of owner-occupied housing units, 2006-2010 $86,600 $101,000 $123,500

Households, 2006-2010 44,349 82,998 8,539,206

Persons per household, 2006-2010 2.61 2.68 2.78

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. State and County QuickFacts.

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Income and Employment Change forWaco, McLennan County and Texas

WacoMcLennan

County TexasPer capita money income in past 12 months (2010 dollars), 2006-2010 $17,323 $20,652 $24,870

Median household income, 2006-2010 $31,288 $40,672 $49,646Percent below poverty level, 2006-2010 28.7% 20.5% 16.8%Percent change private nonfarm employment, 2000-2009 - 4.3% 11.2%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. State and County QuickFacts.

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WacoMcLennan County Texas

Percent living in same house 1+ years 75.6% 81.1% 81.5%

Percent foreign born 10.5% 8.2% 16.1%Percent age 5+ where language other than English spoken at home 23.6% 18.2% 34.2%Percent age 25+ that are High school graduates 75.5% 80.3% 80.0%Percent age 25+ with Bachelor's degree or higher 20.3% 20.6% 25.8%Mean travel time to work (minutes) for workers age 16+ 16.4 18.5 24.8

Income and Employment Change forWaco, McLennan County and Texas, 2006-2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. State and County QuickFacts.

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0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2000 to2001

2001 to2002

2002 to2003

2003 to2004

2004 to2005

2005 to2006

2006 to2007

2007 to2008

2008 to2009

InternationalState-to-State

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Population Estimates.

Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000-2009

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Percent of Migrants to Texas by Race and Ethnicity, 2000-2009

Net domesti

c migr

ation

International

migrati

onTotal

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

44%24% 33%

28%50% 40%

23% 8% 15%

5%18% 12%

OtherBlackHispanicWhite

67% of all migrants

(848,702 migrants ) (933,083 migrants)

52% of all migrants were international

Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the 2006-2008 American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international migrants between 2000-2009 are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau.

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States with Largest Estimated Unauthorized Immigrant Populations, 2010

State Estimate (thousands) Range

California 2,550 (2,350 - 2,750) Texas 1,650 (1,450 - 1,850) Florida 825 (725 - 950)

New York 625 (525 - 725) New Jersey 550 (425 - 650)

Illinois 525 (425 - 625) Georgia 425 (300 - 550) Arizona 400 (275 - 500)

Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to March Supplements to the Current Population Survey (February 1, 2011).

6.5% of Texas’ 2010 Population

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Estimated Domestic Migration (2000-2008) by County as a Percentage of 2000 Population

Legend-20 to -45%

-19 to -10%

-9 to -5%

-4 to 0%

1 to 5 %

6 to 20%

21 to 30%

31 to 65%

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

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Legend0-1%

1-2.5%

2.5-3.5%

3.5-5%

5-10%

Estimated International Migration (2000-2008) by County as a Percentage of 2000 Population

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

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18http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html

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Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010

NH White53%

NH Black12%

NH Other

4%

His-panic or Latino32%

2000

NH White45%

NH Black11%

NH Other6%

Hispanic or Latino

38%

2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.

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Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010

Unde

r 1 ye

ar4

year

s8

year

s12

year

s16

year

s20

year

s24

year

s28

year

s32

year

s36

year

s40

year

s44

year

s48

year

s52

year

s56

year

s60

year

s64

year

s68

year

s72

year

s76

year

s80

year

s84

year

s88

year

s92

year

s96

year

s10

0 to

104

y...

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

White (non-Hispanic) Hispanic

Age

Popu

latio

n

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Census Count.

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Under 1 year4 years8 years

12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years

100 to 104 years

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Male White, Non-Hispanic Male Hispanic Male Black, Non-Hispanic Male Asian, Non-Hispanic Male Other, Non HispanicFemale White, Non-Hispanic Female Hispanic Female Black, Non-Hispanic Female Asian, Non-Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Census Count.

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Under 1 year4 years8 years

12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years

100 to 104 years

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Male White, Non-Hispanic Female White, Non-Hispanic

Texas Population Pyramid by White (non-Hispanic), 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Census Count.

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Under 1 year4 years8 years

12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years

100 to 104 years

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Male Hispanic Male Black, Non-Hispanic Male Asian, Non-Hispanic Male Other, Non HispanicFemale Hispanic Female Black, Non-Hispanic Female Asian, Non-Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Census Count.

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McLennan County Population Pyramid, 2010

0-4 yrs

5-9 yrs

10-14 yrs

15-19 yrs

20-24 yrs

25-29 yrs

30-34 yrs

35-39 yrs

40-44 yrs

45-49 yrs

50-54 yrs

55-59 yrs

60-64 yrs

65-69 yrs

70-74 yrs

75-79 yrs

80-84 yrs

85+ yrs

-6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%

MalesFemales

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Decennial Census, SF1.

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Total Population by County, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Census Count.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

Legendco48_d00'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpop10

82 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,001

100,001 - 500,001

500,001 - 1,000,000

1,000,001 - 4,100,000

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Numeric Change of Total Population by County, 2000-2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

Legendco48_d00'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpopch0010

-3,200 - 0

1 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 700,000

Page 27: Texas and Waco: Demographic Characteristics and Trends

27Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections.

Year

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

AngloBlackHispanicOther

Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 2000-2007 Migration Scenario.

Projected Racial and Ethnic Population Percentages for Texas, 2000-2040

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2040 PopulationP_40

36 - 1000

1001 - 10000

10001 - 50000

50001 - 100000

100001 - 500000

500001 - 1000000

1000001 - 8000000

Projected Population by Texas Counties, 2040

Source: Texas State Data Center. Vintage 2008 Population Projections, 2000-2007 Migration Scenario. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

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Percent Projected Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2008-2040

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Race/Ethnic Composition by Education Level in the Labor Force (aged 25 years and more) for Texas, 2009

19%

6%

71%

3%

67%

8%

15%

9%

Source: Derived from 2009 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates by the Office of the State Demographer.Less Than High School

College and Greater

Page 32: Texas and Waco: Demographic Characteristics and Trends

Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040

Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 1.0 Migration Scenario.

No High School Diploma

High School Graduate Some College Bachelor's Degree Graduate/Professional Degree

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

18.8

29.0 28.7

18.2

5.3

30.128.7

23.9

12.9

4.4

2000 2040

Perc

ent

Page 33: Texas and Waco: Demographic Characteristics and Trends

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Percent of Persons Aged 25+ without HS Degree

1970 1980 1990 2000 2006-2010

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

TexasMcLennan County

Source: Alexander Marre, ERS, USDA

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Percent of Persons Aged 25+ with College Degree

1970 1980 1990 2000 2006-20100

5

10

15

20

25

30

TexasMcLennan County

Source: Alexander Marre, ERS, USDA

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Grade 9 Longitudinal Graduation, Completion, and Dropout Rates, Class of 2010

Graduated Continued Received GED Dropped outGraduated or

continued

Graduated or continued, or received GED

District Class Number Rate (%) Number Rate (%) Number Rate (%) Number Rate (%) Number Rate (%) Number Rate (%)

Texas 314,079 264,632 84.3 22,532 7.2 3,927 1.3 22,988 7.3 287,164 91.4 291,091 92.7Axtell ISD <100 - 85.2 - 3.3 - 3.3 - 8.2 - 88.5 - 91.8Bosqueville ISD 49 49 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 49 100 49 100Bruceville-Eddy ISD <100 - 89.7 - 2.9 - 1.5 - 5.9 - 92.6 - 94.1China Spring ISD <200 - 98.1 - 0 - 0.6 - 1.2 - 98.1 - 98.8Connally ISD <150 - 94.6 - 3.9 - 1.6 - 0 - 98.4 - 100Crawford ISD <100 - 96.2 - 1.9 - 1.9 - 0 - 98.1 - 100La Vega ISD <200 - 81.2 - 5.3 - 2.4 - 11.2 - 86.5 - 88.8Lorena ISD <200 - 89.6 - 1.3 - 1.9 - 7.1 - 90.9 - 92.9Mart ISD <50 - 88.2 - 0 - 2.9 - 8.8 - 88.2 - 91.2McGregor ISD <100 - 96.1 - 0 - 1.3 - 2.6 - 96.1 - 97.4Midway ISD 425 405 95.3 9 2.1 6 1.4 5 1.2 414 97.4 420 98.8Moody ISD <100 - 90.9 - 0 - 5.5 - 3.6 - 90.9 - 96.4Riesel ISD 45 45 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 45 100 45 100Robinson ISD 181 181 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 181 100 181 100Waco ISD 920 678 73.7 66 7.2 14 1.5 162 17.6 744 80.9 758 82.4West ISD <150 - 94.1 - 0.8 - 0 - 5.1 - 94.9 - 94.9

Source: Texas Education Agency

Page 36: Texas and Waco: Demographic Characteristics and Trends

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High School Graduates (2008-2009) Enrolled in College the Following Year

District nameTotal high school

graduates In-stateOut-of-

state PercentTexas 264,275 134,548 14,178 56%McLennan county 2,347 1,408 62 63%Axtell ISD* 50 32 - 64%Bosqueville ISD* 42 30 - 71%Bruceville-Eddy ISD* 70 44 - 63%China spring ISD 140 94 6 71%Connally ISD* 134 87 - 65%Crawford ISD* 40 31 - 78%La Vega ISD* 106 58 - 55%Lorena ISD* 99 72 - 73%Mart ISD* 43 21 - 49%McGregor ISD* 71 34 - 48%Midway ISD 465 316 31 75%Moody ISD* 48 27 - 56%

Riesel ISD 32 21 -

66%

Robinson ISD 174 110 -

63%Waco ISD 722 357 13 51%

West ISD 111 74 -

67%

Source: Texas Education Agency, PEIMS

* A small number of students in these districts enrolled in college out-of-state but numbers were masked to comply with FERPA

Page 37: Texas and Waco: Demographic Characteristics and Trends

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Demographics and Destiny

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Contact

Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530Email: [email protected]: http://osd.state.tx.us

Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.