Testing new ways to increase access to Post-Secondary Education: Early

Implementationof the Future to Discover Pilot Project

Yves Y. PelletierCanada Millennium Scholarship Foundation

2007 European Access Network Conference Galway, Ireland June 28, 2007

Canada Millennium Scholarship Foundation: Mandate and activities

• The Canada Millennium Scholarship Foundation was created by the Government of Canada in 1998 with an endowment of $2.5 billion to improve access to post-secondary education over the next ten years.

• The Foundation distributes roughly $350 million in the form of needs-based bursaries each year throughout Canada. So far, the Foundation has awarded $2.3 billion in the form of 800,000 bursaries to Canadian post-secondary students.

• The Foundation also offers hundreds of Millennium Excellence awards to youth who have distinguished themselves through community involvement, leadership, innovation and academic success.

• The Foundation carries out research projects to better understand issues relating to access to post-secondary education.

Population that has attained tertiary education (2004)

Percentage, by age group

Countries are ranked in descending order of the percentage of 25- to-34-year-olds who have attained tertiary education. Source: OECD. Table A1.3a. See Annex 3 for notes (www.oecd.org/edu/eag2006). 1. Year of reference 2003.

Canada’s youth population – Medium growth projection

Statistics Canada, CANSIM, table 052-0004 and Catalogue no. 91-520-X. Last modified: 2005-12-21.

2 850 000

2 900 000

2 950 000

3 000 000

3 050 000

3 100 000

3 150 000

3 200 000

3 250 000

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026

2006 Population 18- to 24-Year-Old Population

285,000 fewer 18- to 24-year-olds

between 2011 and

2021

Barriers to access and persistence

R.A. Malatest and Associates, Class of 2003: High School Follow-Up Survey (Montreal: Canada Millennium Scholarship Foundation, 2007)

33%31%

19%

8%

13%11%

22%

14%

29%27%

9%

12%10%

%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Finances Careerindecision

Lack ofinterest

Program notwhat expected

Employment Academicchallenges

Personal/family

Never attended Discontinued

Marie Drolet (2005), Participation in Post-secondary Education in Canada: Has the Role of Parental Income and Education Changed over the 1990s?

Participation in post-secondary education among 18- to 24-year-olds living with at least one parent in 2001 by family income and parental education

81%

49%

60%

76% 77%

53%

63%68%

%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Less than$25,000

$25,000 -$50,000

$50,000 -$75,000

$75,001 -$100,000

More than$100,000

High schoolor less

Some post-secondary

University

Improving access to PSE

Enhanced career development activities

(EYH-FTD/MEW)

Financial incentives

(LA)

Enhanced academic

preparation (AVID/MEW)

GRADUATION

Retention

Enhanced academic

support/mentoring (STAR/

LE,NONET/ Foundations for

Success)

Financial incentives (STAR, Foundations for

Success)

Millennium Pilot Projects: An Overview

Off-campus community

support (LE,NONET)

Financial support

(LE,NONET)

Community

Support (MEW)

What is Future to Discover?

• The Future to Discover pilot project is an intensive study of the relative effectiveness and efficiency of different types of interventions designed to encourage greater participation in post-secondary education, particularly students from less economically privileged backgrounds.

• The goal is to help policy-makers identify which types of programs can be expected to produce the best results in terms of promoting access to post-secondary education from traditionally under-represented groups.

•This pilot project focuses on two of the three barriers to post-secondary education identified previously:

• Lack of knowledge/misinformation regarding post-secondary study programs;

• Inadequate financial resources.

Future to Discover: Principal research questions

• Does offering a package of enhanced career development (information, advice and guidance) interventions increase post-secondary participation rates?

• Does offering an early guarantee of a CDN$8,000 grant to students from lower-income households in order to encourage them to pursue post-secondary studies, increase post-secondary participation rates?

• Do these interventions offered jointly provide greater post-secondary participation rates than offering these strategies separately?

• Are these interventions cost-effective ways of increasing post-secondary participation rates for students who are traditionally underrepresented in post-secondary education?

Target Future to Discover participants

• Target population: participants: students from lower income, lower parental education (LILE) households (“first-generation students”)

• By awarding Learning Accounts based on family income (validated by a Statistics Canada representative during the in-home interview), 52% of our sample in NB are from households with income below the provincial median

Example: • 2 adults, 3 children: medium income =

CDN$60,000• 1 adult, 1 child: median income =

CDN$45,000

Planning for Post-Secondary Studies

Prairie Research Associates (2005), Secondary School Student Survey

17% 18%

22% 23%

26%

33%

17%

10% 11%13%

15%

18%

8%

11%9% 8%

10% 10%8%

16%15%

Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10 Grade 11 Grade 12

No PSE Both Parents College Both Parents University

High school students who plan to work after high school and study later

Overview of the recruitment process

Letter mailed out to eligible grade 9 students in selected schools

Statistics Canada randomly selected students to participate in Future to Discover

In-home interviews:Baseline survey

The Governments of Manitoba and New Brunswick and the Foundation established guidelines for recruiting high schools:

30 in NB, 21 in MB

Opting out

Opting out

Opting out

Assignment of Manitoba participants into program or comparison groups

1044 volunteers

Random Assignment

Explore Your Horizons group,

575 students

Comparison group, 469 students

Assignment of New Brunswick participants

into program or comparison groups (both cohorts)2298 volunteers

(below provincial income median)

2087 volunteers (above provincial income median)Random Assignment Random Assignment

Learning Accounts only, 549 students

Learning Accounts +

Explore Your Horizons, 548

students

Explore Your

Horizons only, 597 students

Comparison group

with follow-up,

604 students

Explore Your

Horizons only, 610 students

Comparison group

with follow-up,

848 studentsComparison

group with no-follow-

up, 629 students

Random assignment created statistically equivalent groups

0 20 40 60 80 100

Number of adults in household

Signing parent male (%)

Number of children in household

Age of signing parent (years)

Male (ever mentioned %)

Aboriginal (ever mentioned %)

White (%)

Age (years)

Has diff iculty seeing, hearing, learning, etc. (%)

Average mark this year 80%+ (%)

FTD program group Comparison group

Manitoba

New Brunswick

French sector (below

md)

French sector (above

md)

English sector (below

md)

English sector (above

md)

Less than high

school11 27 5 16 2

High School

Diploma21 27 14 33 18

Trade/College

47 41 52 45 50

University 21 6 29 6 30

Parental education attainment

No PSE

What is standing in child’s way of pursuing PSE?(Future to Discover Baseline Survey)

Manitoba New Brunswick

French sector (below

md)

French sector (above

md)

English sector (below

md)

English sector (above

md)

Financial situation

17 19 12 38 19

Not enough

interest or motivation

4 4 5 3 4

Learning disability

3 5 3 3 2

Won’t have

requirements to get

in

2 2 3 2 2

Learning Accounts intervention

• The objective of the Learning Accounts strategy is to provide grants to a randomly-selected group of Grade 10 students in New Brunswick only whose family income is less than the provincial median.

• Learning Accounts differs from other grant programs in that:

(a) it is targeted at potential post-secondary students;

(b) only students from families with below provincial median income are eligible; and

(c) accounts are set up for students, and grant money is deposited into their accounts, starting relatively early in high school.

Earning and withdrawing money from Learning Accounts

• After each successive year, participants in this intervention will receive an account statement that shows the accumulated amount in their accounts.

• $2,000 to those still attending high school at the end of Grade 10;

• $2,000 to those still attending high school at the end of Grade 11; and

• $4,000 to those who successfully complete Grade 12.

• Students enrolled in a post-secondary program that lasts two years or more may request four equal instalments of $2,000.

• Students enrolled in post-secondary programs that last a year or less will receive their grant in two equal disbursements of $2,000 during the same year.

Learning Accounts were taken up by nearly all those offered one

93.3 91.395.4

90.3 87.693.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Total Anglophone Francophone

Perc

enta

ge o

f Elig

ible

Par

ticip

ants Signed declaration

Active Status

Explore Your Horizons (information strategy) - Timelines

Grade Ten (16 hours)

Grade Eleven(12 hours)

Grade Twelve (12 hours)

Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring

Career Focusing * (12 hours – 6

workshops of 2 hours)

Lasting Gifts** (8 hours – 4 workshops of

2 hours)

Future in Focus *(8 hours – 4 workshops

of 2 hours)

Post-Secondary Ambassad

ors (1

workshop of 2

hours)

Post-Secondary Ambassad

ors (1

workshop of 2

hours)

Post-Secondary Ambassad

ors (1

workshop of 2

hours)

Post-Secondary Ambassad

ors (1

workshop of 2

hours)

Post-Secondary Ambassad

ors (1

workshop of 2

hours)

Post-Secondary Ambassad

ors (1

workshop of 2

hours)

Website, magazine

Website, magazine

Website, magazine

Website, magazine

Website, magazine

Website, magazine

*Parents/guardians are invited to take part in an orientation session at the beginning of grade 10, an overview session at the beginning of grade 12 and to participate in the final session of Career Focusing in grade 10 and Future in Focus in grade 12.

**Lasting Gifts is an intervention involving parents/guardians and their child.

Explore Your Horizons Year 1 Implementation

Evaluator’s Assessment

• Explore Your Horizons was delivered as it was designed.

• Explore Your Horizons components were delivered consistently across sites and time.

• Facilitators and Future to Discover staff were aware of implementation objectives.

• Staff took steps to maximize participant exposure to Explore Your Horizons.

Attendance began strongly but declined during the year.

0102030405060708090

100

Session title

Pro

po

rtio

n a

tte

nd

ing

(%

)

MB

NB-En

NB-Fr

Intensity of attendance by different groups

All LILE

Non-LILE Difference

EYH+LA EYH Impact

MBAttended 0 sessions

21.6 31.1 17.2 ***

Attended 7+ sessions

39.8 28.2 45.0 ***

NB An

Attended 0 sessions

16.1 17.5 14.5 14.4 20.3 *

Attended 7+ sessions

48.1 45.8 50.9 51.1 41.9 **

NB Fr

Attended 0 sessions

15.9 17.3 14.3 10.3 22.9 ***

Attended 7+ sessions

46.7 43.8 49.9 * 55.1 35.2 ***

04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10FTD-NB1 Gr. 10 Gr. 11 Gr. 12 PSE1 PSE2 PSE3

FTD-NB2 Gr. 10 Gr. 11 Gr. 12 PSE1 PSE2

FTD-MB1 Gr. 10 Gr. 11 Gr. 12 PSE1 PSE2

Future to Discover timelines

Future to Discover Report• Early Implementation Report: September 2007

• Short- and medium-impact Report: 2009

• Final Report: 2012

Evaluation of Future to Discover

• A three-part evaluation over six years:

• Impact study to collect evidence of program effectiveness from Grade 9 through to start of second year of PSE, using surveys and administrative records;

• Implementation research on the operation of the programs to serve as a source of practice “lessons learned” and to help interpret the findings from the impact study;

• Cost-benefit analysis to determine cost effectiveness from perspectives of participants, funders, policymakers and society as a whole.

A promising foundation for later impact analyses…

Principal outcome:• Successful enrollment and completion of the first year

of chosen PSE program• [Program aim] Successful completion of the chosen

PSE program Questions related to principal outcome:• Type and location of PSE?• Subgroup differences• Increase in PSE-related income?• Do students forego other non-PSE incomes?Benefit-cost analysis

For more information on Future to Discover:

Yves Y. Pelletier Canada Millennium Scholarship

Foundationypelletier@bm-ms.org

(514) 282-2140