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Tensions in Eastern EuropeAnd the influence of Mass Media

Jacques Bazen

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Overview of the lecture

• Tensions in Eastern Europe• I. Case study: Mass Media and

the Ukranian crisis• II. What about the Baltics?• III. Possible explanations

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Eastern EuropeThe former Soviet republics go through a lot of tension and troubles the last couple of years.

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Tensions in Eastern Europe

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Tensions in Eastern Europe

The most well known conflict is the one in Ukraine, but it is by no means the first and only one.

- Transnistria / Prednestrovye (Moldova)- South Ossetia / Abchazia (Georgia)

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Changing “spheres of influence”

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Cause: EU Eastern Partnership?

EU Partnership is aimed at improving:- Trade with former Sovjet Union states- Making travel easier- European-wide environmental issues (eg. Baltic Sea, Black Sea)Not: Candidate membershipBut: Quest for EU/USA influence?

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I. Ukraine

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Case study: What is happening in Ukraine?

More in particular, who caused the current trouble? Depends on who you ask…• Western media: Russia did it.• Brussels: Probably Russia started it.• Russia: CIA together with Brussels did it.• Wilders: It’s Brussels fault. Because of empty

promises• Ukrainians (from West: Russia did it)• Ukrainians (from East: Fascists in Kiev did it)

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Is the USA behind the troubles in Ukraine?

Victoria Nuland and Geoffrey Pyatt phone call:I think we're in play. The Klitschko [Vitaly Klitschko, one of three main opposition leaders] piece is obviously the complicated electron here. Especially the announcement of him as deputy prime minister and you've seen some of my notes on the troubles in the marriage right now so we're trying to get a read really fast on where he is on this stuff. But I think your argument to him, which you'll need to make, I think that's the next phone call you want to set up, is exactly the one you made to Yats [Arseniy Yatseniuk, another opposition leader]. And I'm glad you sort of put him on the spot on where he fits in this scenario. And I'm very glad that he said what he said in response.

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Is the USA behind the troubles in Ukraine?

USA has a history of trying to put their influence on countries. Often with disastrous results… The list of the American foreign affairs failures the last 15 years is long (the most important ones):- Kosovo- Afghanistan - Iraq- Syria - Libya

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Start of the Ukrainian troubles: Maidan square protests in Kiev

Protest of the Ukrainian people, or protests instigated by foreign powers?

How Maidan square became a mass-media war…

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Maidan protests

What we saw about the protests in The Netherlands…

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Maidan protests

What was shown in Russianmass media…

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What about the Maidan protests?

BOTH IS TRUE!

But…

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• Is it a geopolitical game?• Russia: an attempt to expand the European

Union's “sphere of influence” in the quest for oil and gas. International relations according to Russia: Zero-Sum game, so stay out of our backyard!

• EU: These countries voluntarily joined the partnership. No geopolitical tool or blackmail

How to explain the current crisis in Ukraine?

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Trouble in Ukraine: A small story from the viewpoint of the

WestOnce upon a time there was acountry that was out of money…Well…there was money, butit was in the deep pockets of thecorrupt elite

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Trouble in UkraineThe president looked around to find additional money…

Can the EU help?

Maybe a trade agreement/other funding?

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Trouble in Ukraine

Conditions for reform were demanded by the EU. The president refused to sign

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Trouble in Ukraine

Conditions for reform were demanded by the EU. The president refused to sign

Ukrainian people were fed up by the unfairness of the government and started mass protests.

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Trouble in Ukraine

The protests succeeded: The president was ousted.

Ukrainian people were fed up by the unfairness of the government and started mass protests.

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Trouble in Ukraine: View from the WestAngry elite feels these changes as a big threat to their lucrative businesses...

A threat that must be stopped...

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Is this what and why it happened?

Or are there other explanations?

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Fair and Balanced news coverage?

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Annexation of Crimea

Russian media: Oppressed Russian minority asks for protection of mother Russia.

Russia, help us!

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Annexation of Crimea

Western media: Little green men (Russian soldiers) occupy Crimea all of a sudden. Against the law.Original population, the Crimean Tatars are victims

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Annexation of Crimea

Mustafa Dzhemilev, leader of the Crimean Tatars has been expelled.

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Role of the Mass Media

Opponent is being depicted as almost non-human, a process called “Othering”:The rebels in Eastern Ukraine are called on…

Western TV: Separatists / RebelsUkrainian TV: TerroristsRussian TV: Freedom fighters

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Mass Media: Othering

Other example of othering: Are they still humans?

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II. The Baltics

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What happens in the Baltics?

Consequence of Ukraine troubles and border incidents: Major diplomatic trouble between the small Baltic states and their large Eastern neighbour.

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What happens in the Baltics?

In all Baltic states there is a considerable Russian speaking minority (Mainly in Latvia/Estonia).

Russia monitors them closely for discrimination…However, virtually none of them want to leave to Russia (less than 50 repatriations in Estonia for example)

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In the Baltics: Resentment over Soviet Past and Russification

Search the 10 differences:

Warsaw

Moscow

TallinnRiga

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What happens in the Baltics?

Controversial WWII history of the Baltic republics and remembrances cause tension with Russia and the Russian minority within the Baltic republics.

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What happens in the Baltics?

- Border incident in Estonia (Eston Kohver incident)- Air space violation in Latvia & Lithuania (spy planes from Kaliningrad)- Building of border guard towers by Poland (after

missiles being deployed in Kaliningrad)- Mysterious reports about Russian submarines

all along the Baltic coast.

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Eston Kohver, border police officer

• Russia: He is a spy who entered Russian territory

• Estonia: Russian FSB (former KGB) abducted him from Estonian territory

Who is right?

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III. Explanations for the crisis

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How to explain the current crisis in Eastern Europe?

Can Geopolitical theory help with some answers?

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Geopolitical theorySince the industrial revolution, states need more and more resources for production and people to work in factories.Foreign policy based on secure access to resources.

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Russia, Ratzel & The Roman Empire

Friedrich Ratzel: Organic state theory. States are like organisms. Stagnation is decay see Roman Empire.Ratzel’s idea of growth: German culture should “fertilize” minor nations with its superior culture.

Organic state theory is influential in Russia (“Mother Russia”) breakup of the Soviet Union was a psychological disaster.

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Russian point of viewGenerally speaking, the whole period of the early 1990's is regarded in modern Russia as a time of the "great betrayal" of our national interests. All that was decided in internal and external politics by Gorbachev and later by Boris Yeltsin is judged as a complete failure. We consider their politics as absolute stupidity and incompetence. The surrender to the West in 1990, the abandonment of the GDR not for a new Germany but for a bigger FRG is considered today in Russia as one of the shames of this big betrayal. Gorbatchev and Yeltsin also sacrificed our Russia!

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Secure access to resources?

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Role of the USAIs there a secret conspiracy of the USA to destroy Russia? (Depicting Russia as evil aggressor)

Over 60% of the Russians believe this.

Emotion driven politics in Russia the unknown is to be feared

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Role of the USAIs there a secret conspiracy of the USA to destroy Russia?

Exchange rate politics?

Depreciation of Ruble against the Dollar/Euro

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Role of the USAOil politics – geopolitical measures?

Decreasing the oil prices – Hitting Russia where it hurts the most?

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Sanctions in RussiaHitting Europe where it hurts the most?

Food import boycott

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Sanctions in RussiaHitting Europe where it hurts the most?

Food import boycott

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History repeating itself? American point of view

Cold war containment policy:George Kennan: Soviet rulers need a hostile world to legitimize their autocratic rule and seek to expand to minimize the “threat” from outside. America should create a counterforce by giving economic aid (Marshall plan) in order to “buy” influence.

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American imperialism…Or Soviet Expansionism…?

Cold War history repeating itself???

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American foreign relations: Realpolitik

Zbigniew Brzezinski: America is the only remaining superpower and remains necessary to solve Eurasian problems as independent referee → “Project for the new American century”The enemies of our enemies are our friends!

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Russian Geopolitics

Alexandr Dugin:“Foundations of Geopolitics”Mastermind behind Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy: Eurasian Unity

Idea of breaking American dominance, restoration of Russia as an empire (Multipolar “Balance of power” in the world)

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Russian Geopolitics

Alexandr Dugin’s solution to deal withthe Ukrainians:“To kill, kill, kill. There can be no more conversations. As a professor I think so”“There is a 5th column destroying Russia from within”Result: Dugin is placed on the EU/USA persona-non-grata list.

Kom verder. Saxion.Divisions of Europe (model)

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Finlandization of Europe

Russian sphereGerman sphereEnemy: “Sea

power”

Moscow – Berlin axis

Moscow – Teheranaxis

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21st Century EuropeAre we heading for a full scale war?

Are the troubles in Ukraine an isolated matter between Ukraine and Russia or will it be a new 1938 “Czechoslovakia”?

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21st Century Europe

Nobody wins anything in a war!

Full scale war unlikely

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Another explanation“Institutional” theorists suggest the current troubles in Ukraine are most likely the consequence of the extractive nature of the Ukrainian and Russian government institutions.

In other words: Any move towards the EU with its freedom means a threat for the personal interests of the elite in both Kiev and Moscow.

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Inclusive versus Extractive institutions

Inclusive countries: Extractive countries:- Rule of law - Rule of elite- Equality for all: - Some are more equal

Solid property rights than others- Aimed at effectiveness - Aimed at interests of

and efficiency the ruling class- Encouragement of - Encouragement of

clientelism:Entrepreneurship: incentive to be government Incentive to invest official or politician.

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Conclusion2 Different paradigms/truths opposing each other:

EU Russia- Countries should start from - Countries should take cover their own strengths behind the back of a strong

ally (“Protector”)- International relations are - International relations are a synergetic zero-sum game- State is instrumental for - State is organic/sacred: supporting quality of life “Motherland”/”Fatherland”- Rational policies, but could - Emotion driven policies mean “creative destruction”

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Some other thoughts

The role of the USA in the conflict remains unclear.

The USA government claims to support freedom and security as “independent referee”. The Russian government claims that the USA is only fighting for the interest of American politicians and American big business in their quest for world domination.

In what sense is this indeed a geopolitical game in which the EU is squeezed in the middle?

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Thank you for your attention!