Tensions in the East China Sea Lowy Institute. June 2013

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Transcript of Tensions in the East China Sea Lowy Institute. June 2013

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  • Contents

    1 Preface: An international workshop on tensions in the East China Sea 4 About the authors 6 Abbreviations 7 A Japanese perspective on the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands crisis

    Noboru Yamaguchi 18 Developments post-Japanese nationalisation of the Diaoyu/Senkaku

    Islands: A perspective from Beijing Jin Canrong and Wang Hao

    26 US policy considerations in the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands crisis

    Bonnie S. Glaser 37 Implications of Taiwan-Japan landmark fishing agreement

    Linda Jakobson 50 Concluding thoughts

    Linda Jakobson

  • 1

    Preface: An international workshop on tensions in the East China Sea

    The announcement in September 2012 by Japans government to purchase three of the

    disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands sparked a downward spiral in relations between Japan and

    China. According to the Japanese government, the purchase was designed to thwart the plans

    of ultra-nationalist mayor of Tokyo, Shintaro Ishihara, to buy the islands and develop them.

    According to the Chinese government, Japan unilaterally changed the status quo, which

    Beijing deems unacceptable.

    In the year since the Japanese Governments decision, both sides have increased efforts to

    assert sovereignty over the islands. China has routinely flown aircraft over and sent law

    enforcement vessels into the territorial waters surrounding the disputed waters, challenging

    Tokyos effective control of the islands. Japan, in turn, has stepped up its coastguard presence

    near the islands. China has also dispatched fighter jets and unmanned aerial vehicles, or

    drones, to the skies near the islands, prompting Japan to scramble fighter jets. The risk of

    miscalculation rises with each patrol.

    In June 2013 the East Asia Program at the Lowy Institute convened an international

    workshop with the aim of gaining a more nuanced understanding of the Senkaku/Diaoyu

    Islands dispute and the factors driving the actions of key stakeholders. Attended by 25

    experts from China, Japan, the United States and Australia, the workshop explored

    developments in the months following the nationalisation by Japans central government of

    the islands and prospects for moving past the current impasse. The following set of papers,

    written in advance of the workshop, provide assessments of the tensions viewed from

    Beijing, Tokyo, Washington DC and Taipei. They also try to identify policy options available

    to respective governments.

    In the first paper, Lt General Noboru Yamaguchi (retired) identifies the domestic political

    factors behind the Noda Governments decision to nationalise the islands. Following criticism

    of the governing Democratic Party of Japans handling of the detention of a Chinese fishing

    captain in 2010, Lt Gen Yamaguchi argues that the purchase was largely driven by a number

    of factors including an unsettled relationship with the landowner, upcoming elections and a

  • 2

    desire to reassert Prime Minister Yoshihiko Nodas national security credentials. Yamaguchi

    also points that out it is not just the more frequent presence of maritime surveillance ships in

    the waters near the islands that are a cause for concern. Because Chinas navy is increasing in

    size and also becoming more active, the navies of Japan, China and the United States come

    into contact more frequently in international waters in the East China Sea. This heightens the

    chance for miscalculation, according to Yamaguchi.

    Professor Jin Canrong of Chinas Renmin University and his co-author Wang Hao consider

    the factors behind the Chinese governments more assertive approach to the dispute and

    Chinese perceptions of Japans motivations. According to Jin, the Japanese central

    governments purchase of the islands reflects a hardening of Tokyos position since the

    detainment of a Chinese fishing captain in 2010. Tokyos tougher stance combined with

    demands of special interest groups compelled China to react to Japans attempts to what

    Beijing perceives as a unilateral change of the status quo.

    Ms Bonnie Glaser, Senior Adviser for Asia at the Center for Strategic and International

    Studies, provides an assessment of the United States diplomatic balancing of Japan and

    China over the islands. The United States has sought to avoid encouraging either side to

    behave assertively or take risks. She recommends that the United States continue its quiet

    diplomacy unless Japan agrees to recognise the existence of a dispute over the islands

    sovereignty, adding that it is after all the responsibility of China and Japan to work out the

    modalities to any solution.

    In the fourth paper, Ms Linda Jakobson, the Lowy Institutes East Asia Program Director,

    considers the position of Taiwan, the third and oft-ignored claimant to the islands. In April

    2013 Taipei reached agreement with Tokyo to permit Taiwanese fishing vessels access to

    fishing areas near the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and inside Japans exclusive economic zone,

    while putting questions of sovereignty to one side. Ms Jakobson explores the drivers behind

    this agreement in Taiwan and Japan, and how it has impacted cross-Strait relations. The

    agreement to put aside questions of sovereignty and focus on the shared exploitation of

    resources could, potentially, provide a useful template for soothing China-Japan tensions,

    although in the current tense environment substantial challenges remain.

  • 3

    The report concludes with a brief assessment by Linda Jakobson of the state of tensions in the

    East China Sea as final revisions were included (December 2013).1

    1 The report was edited by members of the East Asia Program: Linda Jakobson, Masato Kawaguchi, Eva

    O'Dea, Dirk van der Kley, Tracy Tang, and Aimee Yi.

  • 4

    About the Authors

    Ms Bonnie GLASER is a senior adviser for Asia in the Freeman Chair in China Studies,

    where she works on issues related to Chinese foreign and security policy. She is

    concomitantly a senior associate with CSIS Pacific Forum and a consultant for the US

    government on East Asia. From 2003 to mid-2008, Ms Glaser was a senior associate in the

    CSIS International Security Program. Ms Glaser is a board member of the US Committee of

    the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific, a member of the Council on Foreign

    Relations, and a member of the Institute of International Strategic Studies. Ms Glaser

    received her BA in political science from Boston University and her MA with concentrations

    in international economics and Chinese studies from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced

    International Studies.

    Ms Linda JAKOBSON is East Asia Program Director at the Lowy Institute for International

    Policy. Before moving to Sydney in 2011 she lived and worked in China for 20 years and

    published six books on China and East Asia. The Finnish edition of A Million Truths: A

    Decade in China (New York: M. Evans 1998) won the 1998 Finnish Government Publication

    Award. A Mandarin speaker, she has published extensively on Chinas foreign policy, the

    Taiwan Strait, and Chinas science & technology polices. She is the author of New Foreign

    Policy Actors in China (SIPRI 2010, with Dean Knox); Chinas Arctic Aspirations (SIPRI

    2012, with Jingchao Peng) and Chinas Foreign Policy Dilemma (Lowy Institute, 2013).

    From 2009-2011 Jakobson served as Director of the China and Global Security Programme at

    the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

    Professor JIN Canrong is Associate Dean and Professor in the School of International

    Studies at Renmin University in Beijing. Before joining Renmin University, he worked at the

    Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) from 1987

    to 2002. His studies focus on American politics (in particular the US Congress), American

    foreign policy, Sino-US relations and Chinas foreign policy. He has published extensively in

    academic journals and mainstream media and has also written seven books and translated five

    books, including The Liberal Tradition in America (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 1991) by

    Louis Hart; Between Hope and History (Random House, 1996) by former President Bill

  • 5

    Clinton and Diplomacy (Simon & Schuster, 2011) by Henry Kissinger. Prof Jin holds a BA in

    political science from Fudan University, an MA from the Graduate School of the Chinese

    Academy of Social Sciences, and a PhD from the School of International Studies at Peking

    University.

    Lieutenant General Noboru YAMAGUCHI, JGSDF (Ret.) is a Professor and Director for

    International Programs at the National Defense Academy (NDA) of Japan. He graduated

    from the NDA majoring in applied physics in 1974 and trained as an army aviator, mainly

    flying helicopters. He received his MA from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,

    Tufts University, in 1988 and was a National Security Fellow at the John M. Olin Institute for

    Strategic Studies, Harvard University 1991-1992. Lt Gen Yamaguchis major assignments

    include Senior Defense Attach at the Japanese Embassy in the United States (1999-2001),

    Vice President of the Nati