Tennessee Population Projections Matthew C. Harris, Ph.D. Assistant Professor, Economics Center for...
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![Page 1: Tennessee Population Projections Matthew C. Harris, Ph.D. Assistant Professor, Economics Center for Business and Economic Research.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070414/5697c01a1a28abf838ccf306/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Tennessee Population Projections
Matthew C. Harris, Ph.D. Assistant Professor, Economics
Center for Business and Economic Research
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Demographic Data - Sources
• Decennial Census
• American Community Survey
• Census Bureau Population Estimates
• Population Projections
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Decennial Census
• Mandated by Article 1, Section 2 of U.S. Constitution
• Based on actual counts of persons• Used to determine number of members in
House of Representatives from each state• Provides the base population for the
annual population estimates series
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Population Estimates
• Calculated number of people living in an area at a specific point in time.
• Derived using models that account for changes in:• Births• Deaths• Net Migration
• Used to control/inform ACS, CPS, etc.• Used for denominators by state/local government
agencies and non-profits as denominators in rate calculations and program fund allocations.
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Population Projections
• Estimates of the population for future dates
• Relies on assumptions about future births, deaths, and net migration.
• Used by government, business, and non-profits for planning purposes and demand forecasts.
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What We Do
• A ‘cohort-component’ model• Single Age – Sex – Race/Ethnicity - County
• Birth: county-age-race specific birth rates• Death: Statewide death rates, augmented
by SSA tables for changing life-expectancy.
• Net Migration – Use decennial census data.
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Invisible Forces
• Net Migration is Unobservable• Birth and death are documented in vital statistics
‘Tennessee Department of Health’• Net migration is the ‘residual’
• Population is known• Births are known• Deaths are known• Net Migration makes up the difference
• Most volatile component of population change• Most critical component of short-term population
change.
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TN Doing What TN Does
• From a population standpoint: • Grow at about 1.0% per year on average• Noisily
• 1930’s – 11.4% Growth• 1940’s – 12.9% Growth• 1950’s – 8.4% Growth• 1960’s – 10.0% Growth• 1970’s – 17.0% Growth • 1980’s – 6.2% Growth• 1990’s – 16.7% Growth• 2000’s – 11.5% Growth• 2010’s – 8.0% Growth (at current pace)
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What We Project - Statewide
2020: 7.1M
2030: 7.8M
2040: 8.5M2050: 9.3M
Approx. 1% Growth
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All of this has happened before
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All of this will happen again
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Cohort Component Model
• We model population growth as a pure population process. • Births• Deaths• Historical Net Migration
• We do NOT include structural economic factors:• Structural Economic Changes• Planned Development• Infrastructure Changes
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Why we exclude economic data
• To include economic data in a model, you need:• Consistent variables and consistent impact.
• An issued commercial development permit has to mean the same thing in County X as it does in County Y.
• Accurate forecasts of all economic variables included.• When accurate, including economic variables may be helpful.• Forecast error in economic variables may (and often does) make
overall population forecasts less accurate.
• Most economic variables are even noisier than net migration.
• Incorporating them ALSO requires an understanding of who those variables bring in to a given county.
• Population growth is actually a pretty stable process.
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A compounding effect
𝑌=𝑋 𝛽+𝜖
Outcome(e.g., Population)
Things we can observe
Effect of Things we can
observe on the Outcome
Things we cannot observe
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Short term gain, long term pain
Pop
Economic Activity
IndicatorsWRONG
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
WRONG
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Key Trends from the Projection
2010201320162019202220252028203120342037204020432046204920522055205820612064
0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000
County Population by Race
Black Non-HispanicHispanicOther Non-HispanicWhite Non-Hispanic
Population
Year
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A few key numbers on race
• 2010: • 75.6% White Non-Hispanic• 16.5% Black Non-Hispanic• 4.6% Hispanic• 3.2% Non-Hispanic, NWoBA.
• 2040:• 63.6% White Non-Hispanic• 17.2% Black Non-Hispanic• 11.1% Hispanic• 7.9% Non-Hispanic, NWoBA
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Hispanic Population Growth
• 1990: 32,741• 2000: 123,838
• 278% Growth
• 2010: 290,059• 134% Growth
• 2020: 461,704 (projected)• 59% Growth
• 2030: 678,738 (projected)• 47% Growth
• 2040: 954,115 (projected)• 40.5% Growth
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Age Histogram, 2010
Age under 5
5 to 9 10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 and up
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
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Age Histogram, 2040
Age under 5
5 to 9 10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 and up
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
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Births Per Year – United StatesYear Births
1915-1925 Approx 2.9M PA1930 2.6M1935 2.3M1940 2.5M1945 2.8M1950 3.6M1955 4.1M1957 4.3M1960 4.2M1964 4.0M
1965-1989 3.1M-3.9M, trough in OPEC Years1990 4.2M
2000’s 4.0-4.1M2010’s 3.7-3.8M
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Urbanization
• 10 Largest Counties 2010: 53% of TN Pop
• 10 Largest Counties 2040: 56% of TN Pop
• 10 Largest Counties 2060: 60% of TN Pop
Shelby Davidson Knox Rutherford Hamilton
Williamson Montgomery Sumner Sullivan Blount
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Top 10 – Absolute ChangeCounty Absolute Population Change 2010-2040
Rutherford 275,106
Davidson 250,427
Williamson 222,432
Knox 152,180
Shelby 148,936
Montgomery 138,908
Wilson 93,888
Hamilton 90,081
Sumner 84,704
Sevier 58,441
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Mid-cap GrowthCounty Absolute Population Change 2010-2040
Sevier 58,441
Washington 43,677
Robertson 35,564
Maury 32,178
Bradley 29,380
Tipton 28,182
Putnam 27,134
Cumberland 25,979
Madison 23,589
Fayette 23,511
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Top 10 – Growth RateCounty CAGR 2010-2040
Williamson 2.68%
Rutherford 2.41%
Wilson 2.02%
Montgomery 1.99%
Sevier 1.68%
Fayette 1.60%
Robertson 1.44%
Sumner 1.42%
Sequatchie 1.37%
Loudon 1.29%
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Growth Rate 11-20County CAGR 2010-2040
Cumberland 1.27%
Tipton 1.27%
Blount 1.14%
Davidson 1.12%
Maury 1.12%
Bedford 1.10%
Putnam 1.06%
Washington 1.01%
Knox 1.01%
Dickson 0.99%
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(865) [email protected]