Ten fundamental questions for water resources development ... · Ten fundamental questions for...
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Ten fundamental questions for water resources developmentin the Ganges: myths and realities
Claudia Sadoffa,*, Nagaraja Rao Harshadeepa, Donald Blackmoreb,Xun Wuc, Anna O’Donnella, Marc Jeulandd, Sylvia Leee
and Dale WhittingtonfaThe World Bank, Washington, USA
*Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected] consultant, Canberra, AustraliacNational University of Singapore, Singapore
dDuke University, Durham, USAeSkoll Global Threats Fund, San Francisco, USA
fUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and Manchester Business School, Manchester, UK
Abstract
This paper summarizes the results of the Ganges Strategic Basin Assessment (SBA), a 3-year, multi-disciplinaryeffort undertaken by a World Bank team in cooperation with several leading regional research institutions in SouthAsia. It begins to fill a crucial knowledge gap, providing an initial integrated systems perspective on the major waterresources planning issues facing the Ganges basin today, including some of the most important infrastructure optionsthat have been proposed for future development. The SBA developed a set of hydrological and economicmodels for theGanges system, using modern data sources and modelling techniques to assess the impact of existing and potential newhydraulic structures on flooding, hydropower, low flows, water quality and irrigation supplies at the basin scale. It alsoinvolved repeated exchanges with policymakers and opinion makers in the basin, during which perceptions of the basincould be discussed and examined. The study’s findings highlight the scale and complexity of the Ganges basin. In par-ticular, they refute the broadly held view that upstreamwater storage, such as reservoirs in Nepal, can fully control basin-wide flooding. In addition, the findings suggest that such dams could potentially double low flows in the dry months.The value of doing so, however, is surprisingly unclear and similar storage volumes could likely be attained throughbetter groundwater management. Hydropower development and trade are confirmed to hold real promise (subject torigorous project level assessment with particular attention to sediment and seismic risks) and, in the near to mediumterm, create few significant tradeoffs among competing water uses. Significant uncertainties – including climatechange – persist, and better data would allow the models and their results to be further refined.
Keywords: Ganges; Hydro-economic modelling; International rivers; River basin management; South Asiawater; Transboundary waters
Water Policy 15 (2013) 147–164
doi: 10.2166/wp.2013.006
© IWA Publishing 2013
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