Telecom Sector on the Edge: Driving the Future of IPTV
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Transcript of Telecom Sector on the Edge: Driving the Future of IPTV
InternationalTelecommunicationUnion
Helping the world communicate
Telecom Sector on the Edge:Driving the Future of IPTV
The Future of VoiceThe Future of Voicewww.itu.int/spu/voicewww.itu.int/spu/voice
15-16 January 2007ITU Headquarters
Geneva, Switzerland
Jaroslaw K. PonderPolicy Analyst
ITU Strategy and Policy Unit
The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its Membership.
2international telecommunication union
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Socio-economic development
Investment Innovation
Catch-up Ongoing
regulatory r. Competitivness
Starting points
Migration to the IP-environ-ment
Convergence of three worlds
Evolving regulatory environment
TelecomTelecom
Broadc.Broadc.InternetInternet
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Telecom and BroadcastingMonopolyMonopolyMonopolyMonopoly CompetitionCompetitionCompetitionCompetition
NarrowbandNarrowbandNarrowbandNarrowband BroadbandBroadbandBroadbandBroadband
TraditionalTraditionalnetworksnetworks
TraditionalTraditionalnetworksnetworks NGNsNGNsNGNsNGNs
TelecomsTelecomsTelecomsTelecoms Telecoms/ITTelecoms/ITConvergenceConvergenceTelecoms/ITTelecoms/ITConvergenceConvergence
WirelineWirelineWirelineWireline ConvergenceConvergenceConvergenceConvergenceWirelessWirelessWirelessWireless
VoiceVoiceVoiceVoice Triple PlayTriple PlayTriple PlayTriple PlayDataData / Video / VideoDataData / Video / Video
NationalNationalNationalNational GlobalGlobalGlobalGlobal
Pasive Pasive Pasive Pasive InteractivityInteractivityInteractivityInteractivity
GeneralGeneralGeneralGeneral PersonalisedPersonalisedPersonalisedPersonalised
Telc
o S
ecto
r V
ideo
Serv
ices
Ubiq
uit
ous,
pers
onaliz
ed a
nd
inte
ract
ive s
erv
ice
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Three Times VoIP
Voice over IPVoice over IPVideo over IPVideo over IP
Velocity on IPVelocity on IP
•IPTV (QoS)•VoD •Interactive MS•Web TV •Mobile TV
•VoIP / PSTN•IP Telephony•VoB•VPN
Fixed InfrastructureFixed Infrastructure•xDSL•FTTx•Cable TV
Mobile and WirelessMobile and Wireless•2G, 3G, 4G•WiFi•WiMAX (d,e)•Satelite
Inte
rnet
Internet
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Broadband Access, 2005
Source: ITU (2006), World Information Society Report 2006, www.itu.int/wisr
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Telecom Sector in Transition
Fixed: PSTNMobile: 2G
VoIPQoSUSOReg. Int.
NGNSimulationEmulation
MultimediaGeneralized mobility Convergence IntegrityMulti-layer orientationOpen character
IP-environment
Broadband/Mobility
Next Generation Services QoS, Mobility, Interactivity,Personalization, N-play
Now
Service A Service B Service C
Net. A Net. B Net. C
FutureServices A, B, C
IP Platform(QoS)
Access Networks
Interconnection / Emerging markets / Universal services / CompetitionNumbering / Quality of Services / Emergency Access / Consumer Protection
VideoVoice
Data
SoD
Interactivity
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Note: historically, the main service provided over the access platform
Converging Markets
Broadcasting/
Satelite
Fixed Telec.
Cable-TV
Mobile Telec.
Wireless
Infr. less
s. prov.
Voice
Internet
Television/Radio
Services on Demand (VoD…)
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NGN Considerations…
NGN will lead to re-monopolizationre-monopolization in the telecommunication sector?Less Bottlenecks / New bottlenecksDynamic efficiencies
CompetitionCompetition?? NGN as an effect of competition NGN enhances level of competition
New interconnection regimeinterconnection regime?
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NGN Considerations…
NGN will enable structural separation?structural separation?Networks / Services / Applications
VoiceVoice loses meaning?Tech: IP protocol Business: Voice plus Content
Present regulatory frameworkregulatory framework remains relevant?Evolution is unavoidable Convergence (T+B+C)
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New challenge for telecom sector
Driving the Future of IPTVDriving the Future of IPTV Chairman Report from
Executive Round Table Market, Regulatory Trends and
Policy Options in EuropeMarket, Regulatory Trends and
Policy Options in Asia / Pacific
IPTV Global Technical WorkshopIPTV Global Technical Workshop12-13 October 2006 / www.iptv-ws.com
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IPTV: Implications Infrastructure requirements
6-16 MBit/s for HDTV / Narrow Band TV Bandwidth / Generalized mobility ADSL2+/VDSL/FTTx/3G/4G/WiFi/WiMAX
Standardization process (Arch., STB) Compression Methods Business Model
Value Creation Chain / True margin redistribution
Triple-play Distribution platforms /Interaction
Broadcasting /One way communication
Regulatory reform
Users
Revenues
Margin
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IPTV: Market Trends Beijing RIC Information Consulting (2005):
Global2006: the global revenue of IPTV service
$8 billion with over 8 million subscribers. Users: 2004: 2.19 million 2008: 20.44 million
21st Century Communications World Forum : 2006: 2-3 Million U.
Gartner (2006): Europe2006: 3.3 million users2010: more than 16 Million UsersAdditional revenues generated will
grow from 336 Million to 3 BillionSource: Gartner (2006)
IPTV Users in Europe
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Case Study on Hong Kong: PCCWStrong Demand for
InstalledPay channel customers
Residential
Commercial
Installed pay channel services
2003 2004
29
106
147
269
H2 H1 H2
361
182
10
10
192
441
H1
254
17
17
271
H2
2005
549
369
39122
22
(’000)+38% y
-o-y
+38% y-o
-y608
444
2006
H1
26
26
418
Reached
654,000 at end of
August
Reached
654,000 at end of
August
Pay Channel Customers & ARPU
Pay channel customers as % of total installed (HK$/ month)
2003 2004 2005
Steadily rising ARPU as new content introduced
2006
Mini Packs launched
73%71%61%
53%
39%
20%
118114110105
7057
0%
100%
H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1
0
30
60
90
120
Source: ITU-T IPTV Global Workshop, KT Case Study, Mr Berriman
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Case Study on Hong Kong: PCCWGrowing penetration rate of among
consumer NETVIGATOR
Maintained low churn rate of consumer NETVIGATOR since launch
Dropped by half
Jun-05Before launch
H2’03 H1’04 H2’04 H1’05
28%
48%
59%53%
68%
Broadband Lines
460
5863
68
8894
840
517558
660715
798
8074
H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1
629703
753796
2003 2004 2005
857
Wholesale
Business
Consumer
953+16% y-o-y
+16% y-o-y(’000)
998
2006
Source: ITU-T IPTV Global Workshop, KT Case Study, Mr Berriman
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IPTV: Drivers and ObstaclesDrivers
Telecom competition Inter-modal comp. Pricing and sell
strategies Broadband
deployment Content providers
New ubiquitous distribution platform
Convergence Bundling strategies
User Switching behavior
Obstacles Regulatory environment Standardization process Margin redistribution New form of service
Interactivity User
Cost of the STB / Hardware providers / Operators
Willingness to migrate Willingness to pay for: TV
Services / Video on Demand / Next generation services
Consumer protection
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IPTV: Regulatory considerationsPolicy/Regulatory Goals Socio-economic goals Investment Innovation
Regulatory Focus Static and dynamic
efficiences Monopolistic bottlenecks Market failures Ex-post r. v. ex-ante r.
IPTV Application and service
New markets Fosters competition
New architecture and bottlenecks
New cost models Market analysis Cross-subsidies
Boundaries between infrastructure and the content
Cross-ownerships
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IPTV regulatory requirements Infrastructure
From legacy infrastructure to investment Inter-modal competitionLocal loop unbundling Interconnection Universal service Net neutrality
Symmetric regulation Quality of services
Consumer protection Definition of IPTV in legal systems
IP Hybrid-service / Information service / Broadcast service / Linear versus non-linear services
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Meaningful concepts Neutrality
Technological neutralityNet-neutrality
Universality Universal service New platforms…
Interoperability Standardization
Asymmetric regulationEx-ante versus Ex-post approaches
Unbundling and access pricing
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Conclusions All-IP environment accelerates
convergence process of telecom and broadcasting industry Required strict distinction of transport and content
regulation Imposing old regulatory schemes to the new
technologies may weaken growth dynamics Regulatory forbearance will impact growth dynamics
of the IPTV market
Institutional issues New dimension of regulatory reform
Competition issues All-IP environment fosters competition
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International Telecommunication
Union
Thank you for your attention!
Jaroslaw K. PonderPolicy Analyst
<[email protected]>ITU Strategy and Policy Unit
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Useful Links
Full version of presentation:www.itu.int/spu/presentations
ITU work on NGN and IPTV:www.itu.int/spu/ngnwww.iptv-ws.com
Strategy and Policy Unit:www.itu.int/spu
Shaping Tomorrow’s Networkswww.itu.int/stn
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NGN and the ITURegulatory considerations New Initiatives Programme
What rules for IP-enabled NGNs? The Regulatory Environment for Future Mobile Multimedia Services The Future of Voice
ITU Study Groups Question 6-2/1: Regulatory impact of NGNs on interconnection Question 12-2/1: Tariff policies, tariff models and methods of determining the costs of services on national telecommunication
networks including NGNs Question 19-1/2: Strategy for migration from existing networks to NGNs for developing countries
WTDC 2007 in Doha Trends in Telecommunication Reform 2007 Global Symposium for Regulators 2007
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NGN and the ITU: IPTV
IPTV Focus Group Created in 2006 to deal with the
standardization issues related to IPTV and link between IPTV and NGN
Meetings and first outcomes July 2006, Geneva, Switzerland October 2006, Busan, Korea
ITU Global IPTV Technical Workshop Regulation / Market / Technologies October 2006, Seoul, Korea
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ITU New Initiatives Programme
Focus ICT innovations New market developments Emerging regulatory challenges
Three main outcomes :Research programmesInternational expert workshops Publications
www.itu.int/niwww.itu.int/ni
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The Future of Voice Research Programme Background Materials Page Three Background Papers Three Regional Studies
Asia Africa South Eastern Europe Latin America
Workshop: January 2007
www.itu.int/spu/voicewww.itu.int/spu/voice
New Initiatives New Initiatives ProgrammeProgramme
www.itu.int/niwww.itu.int/ni