Ted Gordon The Millennium Project World Federation of United Nations Associations
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Transcript of Ted Gordon The Millennium Project World Federation of United Nations Associations
Ted GordonThe Millennium ProjectWorld Federation of United Nations Associations
Frontiers of Futures ResearchFrontiers of Futures Research
On the Inauguration of the Graduate Diploma on On the Inauguration of the Graduate Diploma on Foresight and StrategyForesight and Strategy
Simon Bolivar University Simon Bolivar University January 25, 2008January 25, 2008
Slide 1
2. The Future Is DynamicTwenty five years ago there was no:
Internet, World Wide Web, cell phones
European Union, World Trade Organization
AIDS, genetic sequencing for drugs
Cloning, robots on Mars
NAFTA, globalization
Asymmetrical warfare
Many believed we would have nuclear WW III
3. Developments to look for in the next twenty five years
Acceleration of science and technology Nano, bio, cogno, info (NBIC) SIMAD Energy: post oil peak transition Understanding, enhancing mental capacity Longevity Power and shifting non-state political actors Universal monitoring: who’s where New moral issues: birth, death, sovereignty
4. S&T Acceleration
Technological synergies Feedback of accomplishments New instrumentation and analysis capacities Globalization
What can slow it?Natural limits (e.g. energy)Catastrophe (e.g. SIMAD)Religion, cultureFear of the unknown
Neurons
Cogno
NBIC
Bio
Info
Cells
5. Technological Convergence:
Nano
Bits
Atoms
Smart machinesTiny robotsSwarm machine
Understanding mind, brainBrain prosthesisTrue AIImproved decisionmaking
Tiny computersSmart chips Eyes and ears everywhereImplantable monitors
An atomic scale general purpose assembly machine could copy itself in a week; a billion in a year (Minsky)
CellsAtoms
6. Feedback of Accomplishments6. Feedback of Accomplishments
Software development today takes 100 GB hard Software development today takes 100 GB hard drive for granteddrive for granted
Essentially free international communicationsEssentially free international communications
The computer industry is now a trillion industry; The computer industry is now a trillion industry; hence more R&D fundshence more R&D funds
Discontinuous breakthroughs that spawn new Discontinuous breakthroughs that spawn new capacities, disciplines (e.g. transistor, DNA capacities, disciplines (e.g. transistor, DNA molecule definition, fission)molecule definition, fission)
International standards Internet Global corporations bringing technology
with them Transnational students Large scale cooperative projects (space
station) Collaboration among scientists,
policymakers, companies R&D leadership in China, India, South Korea
7. Globalization of S&T
Source: Millennium Project, S&T Study 2001, and TG
The scanning tunneling microscope Rapid DNA sequencer High energy collision machines Cooperative computers: SETI Internet; at the limit all knowledge available High speeds transfer Massive storage of errorless data Nothing is forgotten Hubble orbital telescope Super-cooled IR orbiting observatory looks through dust
8. New Instrumentation and Analysis Capacities
9. A Brief History of Futures Research
Advisors throughout history
WW II, Futuribles, Air Force studies, RAND, Hudson Institute, USSR Plans, IFF
Consulting firms, academic centers, OTA
The Millennium Project, foresight studies
Current: WFS, WFSF, MP, WAF, Journals, Books
10. Philosophical Assumptions
The future can be shaped by policy
There is a range of possible futures
Policy consequences can be systematically explored
Exact foreknowledge is not possible, but probabilities can be assessed
There is a component of the future that is unknowable
11. Purposes of Futures Research To help understand what could be, what
might be, and what ought to be.
To discover threats and opportunities.
To develop creative strategies
To evaluate proposed actions.
To create and share normative visions
12. Purposes of Futures Research
The value of futures research lies less in its forecasting accuracy, than in its use in identifying and assessing new possibilities
It’s purpose is to inform decisions
13. Bad Decisions Abound
Misinformation; sometimes decision makers lie (Gulf of Tonkin, the U-2 incident)
Uncertainty, risk aversion Faith in low probability favorable outcomes Failure to recognize the need for action Bad luck, chance Selfish interests, amorality, corruption Xenophobia, geographic determinism
14. Non Linear Systems in Chaos14. Non Linear Systems in Chaos
The whole may not be the sum of the partsThe whole may not be the sum of the parts
History is not a safe guide to the futureHistory is not a safe guide to the future
Very small differences bring big changesVery small differences bring big changes
Hidden attractors; self organizationHidden attractors; self organization
If most important systems are chaotic, what If most important systems are chaotic, what does that mean for forecasting?does that mean for forecasting?
15. What Goes Into a Decision?
Three questions: What is possible? What is likely? What is desirable?
Futures research helps with Identifying goals Assessing prospective policies Quantifying risks
Futures research does not help much with Reducing the unknowable Psychological factors Moral and ethical factors
16. A New Decision Science16. A New Decision Science Futures research; foresight; FTAFutures research; foresight; FTA
Intuition, imagination: experience, subtle cluesIntuition, imagination: experience, subtle clues
Psychology; personal utility functionsPsychology; personal utility functions
Balance of risks and rewardsBalance of risks and rewards
Experiments and analogyExperiments and analogy
Understanding innate illogic of human thinkingUnderstanding innate illogic of human thinking
Moral courageMoral courage
Privacy compromised: everyone tracked.
Confusion over what is real
Computers evolve; bio- WMD; new diseases
SIMAD, asymmetrical war, extremism, proliferation
Internet dangers: drug manufacture, etc.
Hunger to do what is right but effective decisions, leadership, and action seem missing
17. Some Dangers on the Horizon
Source: Millennium Project, S&T Study 2001, and TG
Diminishing population growth, infant mortality
Control of AIDS, new resources
Improved wealth, education, health, and literacy
An ethic that reveres the future, promotes effective interventions
Global action against common dangers (e.g. SARS)
A new rationality
18. Some Promises on the Horizon
Source: Millennium Project, S&T Study 2001, and TG