Technology Roadmap Workshop · 11:50 SWOT analysis and gaps -Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities &...

Technology Roadmap Workshop

- Prepared for EEI Thailand –

2003. 11. 28 ~30

Workshop Agenda

Day 1, Nov. 28, 2003 What is Technology Roadmapping? 09:30 Opening Remarks

09:45 Introduction to the workshop and participants

10:45 Coffee Break

11:00 Introduction to technology management and roadmapping - What is a TRM? 12:00 Lunch

13:30 Introduction to R&D planning in Korea - Outline of Korea’s NTRM (National Technology Roadmap)

14:30 Coffee Break 15:00 Introduction to Pilot Project

16:30 Exploring the visions 17:30 Conclusion of Day 1

i

Day 2, Nov. 29, 2003 Market and Product Market 08:00 Introduction to “Scenario Development: Market”

- Objectives of overall TRM process - Overview of Day 1

- Overview of EEI’s visions and objectives

08:30 Select the strategic products 09:00 Performance dimensions

10:00 Coffee Break 10:20 Market / business drivers

10:50 Prioritisation of drivers

- Competitive position

11:50 SWOT analysis and gaps

- Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities & threats 12:30 Lunch Product 13:30 Introduction to “Scenario Development : Product”

- Review outputs from “ Scenario Development : Market” - Overview of “Scenario Development : Product” - Objectives of overall process and “Scenario Development : Product”

13:45 Product features

- Brainstorm product features - Clustering product features - Map links to performance dimensions

14:45 Coffee Break 15:00 Impact of product features

- Rank impact of each product feature concept on market / business - Identify key product features that have a high impact on one or more drivers

16:00 Product strategy

- Consider alternative product strategies which could satisfy market / business drivers

17:00 Charting - Identify key milestones (product, business, legislation, competitors) - Chart evolution of product features on roadmap – by when and by how much

18:00 Conclusion of Day 2

- Homework continued

ii

iii

Day 3, Nov. 30, 2003 Technology 08:00 Introduction to “Technology Cluster and Detailed TRM”

- Review outputs from “ Scenario Development : Market and Product” - Overview of “Technology Cluster and Detailed TRM”

08:30 Technological alternatives

- Brainstorm possible technological alternatives - Technological problems / constraints / challenges applying to delivery of desired

product features - Technological / design / manufacturing solutions that could deliver desired

product features - Clustering alternatives - Identify other key resources

10:00 Coffee Break 10:15 Cross impact analysis of technological alternatives

- Rank impact of each technology area on product features 10:45 Disruptive technology 11:15 Detailed TRM and Charting

- Define focus and format of roadmap - Chart preferred technological alternatives on roadmap - Link between market, product and technology levels

12:15 Future works needed

- Polishing TRM - Formulating action plans - Keep roadmapping alive

12:30 Conclusion of the Workshop

- Introduction to “Follow-up Workshop (Jan. 2004)” - Evaluation questionnaires

Technology Roadmapping

Prepared for EEI Thailand

by KISTEP

2

Participants Introduction• What’s your name and the organization, job title?

• Do you have any experiences in field of technology strategic development planning?

• How familiar are you with the concepts of Technology Roadmaps?

• What’s your expectation from this workshop?

• What do you have any expectations from undertaking a Technology Roadmap?

3

Introduction to the workshop

• Objectives

• Structure

• Expectations

4

Objectives

• Practical training on how to make the technology roadmap(TRM) in one’s organization (through pilot project).

• Understanding of the key principles and processes required for effective TRM.

• Formulating-up action plans (future Works).

5

Structure

Day 1 Morning

• What is a TRM?– Concept and objectives– Process– Intended outputs– Implementation– Revision, etc.

6

Structure (continued)

Day 1 Afternoon

• Introduction to Korea’s National Technology Roadmap(NTRM)• Background• Objectives• Process• Output (Examples)• Implementation, action plan

• Pilot project• Exploring the visions

7


Day 2 Morning• Introduction to “Scenario Development: Market”

• Choosing the strategic products

• Performance dimensions

• Market/Business drivers

• Prioritization of drivers

• SWOT analysis

8


Day 2 Afternoon• Introduction to “Scenario Development : Product”

• Product feature concepts

• Impact of product features

• Product strategy

• Charting

9

Structure of the workshop (continued)Day 3 Morning

• Introduction to “Technology Cluster and Detailed TRM”

• Technology alternatives

• Cross impact analysis of technological solutions

• Charting

• Future work needed

• Conclusion of the Workshop

10

ExpectationsBy this workshop, we want the participants

• to support the start-up of EEI’s specific TRM process• to develop a first-cut TRM• to establish key linkages between technology resources and

business drivers• to identify important gaps in market, product and technology

intelligence

We want to upgrade all participantsWe want to upgrade all participants’’ understanding of understanding of technology roadmapping process after this workshop and help technology roadmapping process after this workshop and help

to facilitate to facilitate EEIEEI’’ss own TRM processown TRM process..

11

What is a TRM?

Day 1

Morning, Nov. 28, 2003

12

Overview

• Technology Strategy• What is a TRM?• Implementation of TRM• TRM and Technology Roadmapping• Why needs a TRM?• Technology Roadmapping Process• Secrets of Successful TRM

13

Technology Strategy: S-curve

Technology is evolving

Objectives and Goals

Milestone

Milestone

Milestone

Breakthrough

Emerging Growth Maturity

14

Technology Strategy: Domain

Vision

Management Strategy

What-Business/Product

HowHow--TechnologyTechnologyWho-Market

Strategy Domain

TechnologyStrategy

15

Technology Strategy: Development

TechnologyStrategy

EnvironmentalAnalysis

BusinessNeeds

Threats and Opportunities

Technology Assessment Action Plans

Charter

Team Formation

Roadmaps(Strategy)

Focused Scenarios of

the Future

TechnologyAlternatives

Assimilate

Focus

Expand Perspec

tive

Rank, Select

Technology Intelligence

Capabilities

(source: SRI-BI)

16

Various Tools for Each Stage of Development

Scenario C

“Envelope of Uncertainty”

Scenario A Scenario B

Scenario D

Single Point Forecast

Technology Intelligence

Technology Roadmaps

Scenarios

Technologies

Products/Markets

Example Tools:

Technology Assessment

Capabilities

?

?

?

Technology Strategy: Development (continued)

(source: SRI-BI)

17

Technology Strategy: Development (continued)

Understanding the boundary of TRM

Market Information

Product-Market Analysis

Product-TechnologyOptions Evaluation

Technology Assessment

Identification of TechnologyAvailable/Feasible

RoadmapCreation

Boundary of TRM

Boundary of action plan and implementation

DefinedTarget

ProjectProposals

18

What is a TRM?

• A Technology Roadmap is a document that:

Identifies critical and supporting technologies for a broad family of core products over a medium to long period (5-10 or more years in general), or less in some corporatesDescribes in broad terms the sequences of component technologies,technology developments, and competencies needed for the key performance parameters of functionalities of the product family to improve over timeDescribes the sequence, linkages, and integration of technology changes involved in moving from one performance level to another, and the core products that will emerge along the wayIdentifies the focus and sequence of developments required

19

Implementation of TRMAction PlansIdentify Specific Projects

• Identify in each roadmap the linked stages of technology advancement that constitute the natural technology project units

• Further define these technology projects in terms of their− Performance improvements - Time scale− Commercial applications and benefits - Resource requirements− Basic approach (internal or outsourced) - Risks and alternatives

• Compare with existing technology projects and capabilities and identify the most important implied changes and initial project needs.

Technology Project C

Technologies

Products/Markets

TimeTime

Technology Project B

Technology Project ATechnologies

Products/Markets

Roadmap

1. Capabilities2. Resources3. Investment4. Common elements...

Project Needs

(source: SRI-BI)

20

TRM and Technology Roadmapping

• A TRM- is a group’s view of how to get where they want to go, in

order to achieve their desired objectives.- helps the group assess and cultivate the capabilities to

achieve their objectives are in place at the time needed.

• Roadmapping– is a learning process.– is a consensus building process.

21

Why needs a TRM?

• TRMs are just good planning, with a heavy dose of technology (not just afterthought).

• TRMs link business strategy and market data with product and technology decisions using a series of simple charts.

• TRMs reveal gaps in product and technology plans.• TRMs prioritize investments based on drivers.• Technology roadmapping helps set better target: more competitive and

more realistic to guarantee long-term success.• Sharing TRMs allows strategic use of technology across product lines.• Technology roadmapping communicates business, technology and product

plans to team members, managers, customers and suppliers.• TRMs provide a guide to the team, allowing the team to recognize and act

on events that require a change in direction.

22

Technology Roadmapping Process

• Approach

• Formats

• Typical Process Flow-chart

• Detailed Process

• Working Group(W/G) Operation

The TRM process takeslonger than expected.

REMEMBER !!

23

Technology Roadmapping Process: ApproachTwo types of TRM process

• TRM from Market-Driven Planning– Industry trends analysis, confirmation and revision of business

strategy/planning→ principally market oriented roadmap – Technology Roadmap (Product → Technology) development is focused.

• TRM from Technology-Driving Planning– Market analysis focused on futuristic marketing from products/applications

developed by technologies– Market Roadmap (Product ← Technology) development is focused.

TechnologyProductMarket

Market Roadmap Technology RoadmapTechnology Roadmap

TechnologyProductMarket

Market RoadmapMarket Roadmap Technology Roadmap

24

Technology Roadmapping Process : Formats

b) Service/Capability Planninga) Product planning

c) Strategic planning d) Long-range planning(Sources: Robert Phaal, Technology roadmapping: linking technology resources to business objectives, University of Cambridge, 2001)

25

Technology Roadmapping Process : Formats(continued)

f) Program planning

h) Integration planning

e) Knowledge asset planning

g) Process planning(Sources: Robert Phaal, Technology roadmapping: linking technology resources to business objectives, University of Cambridge, 2001)

26


j) bars

l) Graphical

i) Multiple layers

k) Tabular(Sources: Robert Phaal, Technology roadmapping: linking technology resources to business objectives, University of Cambridge, 2001)

27


m) Pictorial n) Flow-chart

(Sources: Robert Phaal, Technology roadmapping: linking technology resources to business objectives, University of Cambridge, 2001)

28


Choose the Right Format for Purpose

(Sources: Robert Phaal, Technology roadmapping: linking technology resources to business objectives, University of Cambridge, 2001)

29

Technology Roadmapping Process: Typical Process Flow-chart

External environments analysis

Business/Technology Trends Analysis

Roadmap Deployment

Action Plan

Explore the Disruptive Technology

Detailed Roadmap

(Technology Program)

Scenario Development

Business/Tech. Vision (Target) : What should we do What will do

Strategy for Business Unit

Confirmation of Strategic Unit•Nominate steering group•Organizing work group•Identify group leader

30

StepⅠ

Scenario Development

S1, S2, S3...

StepⅡ

Key TechnologiesTx (T1, T2, T3,..)Ty (T1, T4, T5,..)Tz (T2, T6, T7,..)

:

StepⅢ

Roadmapping StepⅣ

Disruptive Technologies

StepⅤ (Technology Program )

Detailed Roadmap

StepⅥ

Action Plan

Technology Roadmapping Process: Detailed Process

31

Technology Roadmapping Process: Detailed Process(continued)

Step 1: Scenario Development• Understanding environmental changing factors for Scenario

development– Performance dimensions, Market/business drivers, Prioritization, Product

features, Clustering, Impact analysis, Product strategy• Develop 3~4 scenarios considering the change of strategic choice

Ⅰ

Scenario A

Scenario B

Scenario C

Envelope of Planning Uncertainty- Trend- Technology limit- Alternatives

⇒ Scenario

32

Notes for Step 1Ⅱ

• Performance dimensions and product features

– Decision Focus; What are the objectives of the technology R&D bydefined timelines?

– Decision Elements; Which technologies must be chosen and developed?, What is the targeting market?, Which technologies are more important than any other technologies in the same field?, etc.

33


Step 2: Clarify Key Technology Clusters• Clarify key technologies and business fields for decision making and

execute performance dimensions analysis.• Key technologies/functions clustering.• Prioritize technology clusters• Explore key technologies satisfying the performance dimensions

– Identify the key technologies and clustering

Ⅱ

Performancedimensions

KeyTechnologies

TechnologyClusters

M1

M2

M3

T1, T2, T3,...

T1, T4, T5,...

T2, T6, T7,...

Tx ( T1, T2, T3,...)

Ty ( T1, T4, T5,...)

Tz ( T2, T6, T7,...)

34

Explore the related technologies/functions(example)

A map of Science & Technology Building Blocks: An example of video tape recorder (Batelle)

MAGNETIC & RECORDING MATERIALS MAGNETIC THEORY MAGNETIC RECORDING

ELECTRONICS FREQUENCYMODULATION

CONTROLTHEORY

VIDEO TAPE RECORDER

RCA-color TV goal

Reject rotating headChose 10 channel multiplex

Abandon - poor gain control

Cross license with Ampex

Ampex chose rotating heads

Prototype 3 heads model

Chose transverse sweep

Full model with FMPublic demo

Discoveredcurrent flowin vacuum tubeInvented

diodeInvented triode

Workable triode

Pentode

TV broadcasts Math analysis gave exact solution

Transmission ofvideo on FM

Oxideknowledge

Permalloy

Feedbacktheory

Control theory

Servo-mechanism Rotatingheads

Wideband tape

Aciculartiron oxide

Active work invideo recording

Tape recorders for instrumentation

Discovered low noiseof FM

Frequency modulationbecomes practical

VerifiedMaxwell’sequation

Electronic amplifiersWire recordersin use forbroadcastMagnetophone

Belived that magneticmaterial could record

Magnetics explainedas atomic interaction

Mass of publicationson ferromagnetism

Wire forrecording

Steeltape

Discovered hardnessof iron-silicon

Plastictape

Non mission researchMission researchDevelopment

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1951

1952

1953

1954

1955

1956

Workablewirerecorder

Ⅱ

Step 2: Clarify Key Technology Clusters(continued)

35

Step 2: Clarify Key Technology Clusters(contined)

Technology Tree(example)Pollution-free road transport

Electric CarPiston-engined

petrol CarWankel-engined

petrol Car

Energysource

Motor Transmission

Fuelcell

Battery(lead/acid)

Energizedexternal source

Internalcombustion

A B C D K L P Q R V XW ZY Projects

OBJECTIVES

Possible solutions

Functionsto be

performed

Possiblesolutions to

functional need

Specific research projectsto solve particular problems

Ⅱ

36

Step 2: Clarify Key Technology Clusters(contined)

Key technology clusteringTechnology

Market/Product

A

B

A’

B’C

P

P

Tech. C

Tech. A

Tech. B

Product 1

Product 2

Ⅱ

37


Step 3: Technology Roadmapping Ⅲ

• Deployment of key technology clusters by time frame• Linkage technologies with products/markets

Time

Technologies

Products/MarketsLEGEND:

Product/MarketTechnology stageTechnology Development ActivityTechnology Development into Products

38

Notes for Step 3

• Choosing important key technology clusters(3~4)

• Making TRM from key technology clusters– Deploy key technology clusters by time frame and they must be

linked with key technologies/products/markets.

• Assessing technology development trends and TRM– Work Group must assess the technology development trends and

reflect on TRM.– Redeploy the key technologies with meditated time frame by Work

Group member’s brainstorming results

Ⅲ

39

Technology Roadmapping Process: Detailed Process(continued)Ⅳ

Step 4: Disruptive technologies

• Explore new or disruptive technologies• Monitoring new or disruptive technology development trends

Scanning Screening Selecting

Monitoringor

ProjectDevelopment

New or DisruptiveTechnologies

40

Notes for Step 4

• Exploring emerging or new, disruptive technologies– Newly emerging or disruptive technologies, anticipated to have

profound impacts on the future market, must be identified for the alternatives.

Ⅳ

Emerging or new, disruptive Techs.Emerging or new, disruptive Techs.

TechnologyalternativesTechnologyalternatives

TRMTRM


Selected

Not SelectedKeep Monitoring

Put into

Put into

41


Step 5: Detailed Roadmapping Ⅴ

• Analyze the technology maturity of each technology clusters

– Portfolio analysis example

Technology maturity

-Tech. iTech. j--Fundamental

Tech.

Tech. gTech. h-Tech. c

Tech. f-Present Core Tech.

-Tech. dTech. e-Tech. a

Tech. bFuture High Impact Tech

AgingMatureGrowthEmbryonic

42

Step 5: Detailed Roadmapping(continued)

• Decide the limitation of technology programs by analysis of performance improvement, commercial usefulness/benefits, resource requirements, threat factors and alternatives

Ⅴ

Time

Technologies

Products/Markets

Time

Technologies

Products/Markets

Technology Program A

Technology Program BTechnology Program C

43


ⅥStep 6: Action Plan

• Clarify needs of initial project and explore the action plan• Summarize important project needs urgently required.

Time

Technologies

Products/Markets

Technology Program AAction Plan for Program A-Project/Program Needs-Development project 1-Partnership-Development project 2...

44

Notes for Step 6Before formulating the action plan, we must consider followings

• How do you get the key technologies?

• How much money should be allocated?

• By when you have to develop identified key technologies?

• Where are you now on technology level compared with world champions in this field?

• Any other factors which need for strategic technology R&D planning have to be considered?

45

Working Group Operation

• Working Group’s roles of each process

PhaseⅡ: Technology Roadmapping

(Step 2~5)

PhaseⅠ: preparation(Step 1)

PhaseⅢ: Follow up(Step 6)

• Shaping W/G’s common sense in

TRM process

• Analysis of technology needs

• Execute the roadmapping

process with all members

• Writing TRM reports of each

part

• Disseminate the TRM results to

the public

• Formulating action plans and

execute the projects

• Review

· Identify group leader, set the

time tables, task assignment

· Solicit name of scientific experts

· Organizing W/G of each part or

field

· Analysis of market/product needs

· W/G must be motivated and have

mutual network with each others

46

Working Group Operation(continued)

Phase Ⅰ: Preparation

• Organizing Working Group (WG)– Select group leader and liaison– TRM facilitating office choosing the WG participants for each parts

or fields– WG have to be composed of technologist and executive manager.

• Analysis of market/product needs– Clarify needs through WG members’ consensus building process.

• WG members share the objectives of technology roadmap with all together and actively participate in technology roadmapping process.

Needs

WorkingGroup

47


Phase Ⅱ: Technology Roadmapping• Share the needs by regular WG meetings, seminars,

workshops etc.– Prepare the time schedule for regular meetings or

seminars etc.– Set the D-day of completion

• All members must actively participate in roadmapping process– Roadmapping works should be carried out with agreement

of WG members. – Clarify the skeptic parts and modify

• Writing report of each parts or fields

Needs

48


Phase Ⅲ: Follow up

• Disseminate the TRM results to the public

• Formulating action plans and execute the projects– TRM is useful for establishing the short and mid-term technology development

strategy– The participants work together to launch R&D projects with the aim of producing

“Thailand” technology/product that will help them capture future market.Risks and benefits are shared

• Review– TRM have to be revised from technology development trends and a changes of needs

49

Secrets of successful TRM

In the process:

• Include the right people

• Begin to build partnerships

• Design a manageable process

• Carefully plan a review cycle

50

Secrets of successful TRM(continued)

In the TRMs itself:

• Be strategic, clear and easy to follow• Show relationships among research activities.• Quantify research benefits and set performance targets and measures• Provide broad recognition of competing technologies• Develop a realistic picture of non-technical barriers• Ensure a realistic view of long development lead times• Include consumer and world economic trend information• Draw from other disciplines to develop a sufficiently broad outlook• Make greater use of visual/graphic maps over text and tables

51

Roadmapping on PaperTime

52

Introduction to Korea’s NTRM

Day 1

Afernoon, Nov. 28, 2003

53

Table of ContentsCurrent Status of Science and Technology in Korea

Innovator Nations

Introduction- Motivation/Objective- History- Approach

NTRM Organized by Five 2012 Visions- Building and Information-Knowledge-Intelligence Society- Aiming at Bio-Healthtopia- Advancing E2(Energy and Environment) Frontier- Upgrading the Value of Major Industries of Korea Today- Improving National Safety and Prestige

• Conclusions- Expected Impact

54

Current Status of Science and Technology in KOREA

• Evaluation by indicator factors– Input factors

• R&D expenditure: about 16 trillion won (5 trillion won by government ) (8th in the world in 2001)

• R&D Personnel : 130,000 people (1998) 160,000 people (2000)

– Output factors• Number of science and technical papers based on SCI (14th in 2001)• Number of PCT international applications by Korean (8th in 2001) ※ PCT : Patent Cooperation Treaty• Technology trade: a deficit of 2.8 billion US dollars in 2000

55

Current Status of Science and Technology in KOREA(continued)

• Evaluation by foreign institute– According to IMD, the Korean scientific infrastructure ranked 10th in the world in 2002.

The Korea was 21st in 2001.

– According to the UNDP, Korean scientific achievement ranked 5th in the world, based on patent registrations and technology exports.

– The Financial Times announced that Korea was the 10th knowledge-industrial country in the world

• Korea ranked 3rd in knowledge investment (R&D, advanced education, and software), following Sweden (1st) and the USA (2nd).

56

Innovator NationsNorth America Europe and the Middle East Asia Pacific

Singapore, South Korea , TaiwanIreland, IsraelEmerging Innovators

Australia, New ZealandFrance, Spain, Austria, U.K.Norway, Netherlands, Italy

Converging on the Top TierCanada

JapanSwitzerland , Finland, Sweden Denmark, Germany

Top Tier InnovatorsUnited States

57

Introduction

Motivation and Objectives

• To Meet the challenge of rapidly advancing S&T in 21st century• To Focus R&D on strategically chosen areas for optimal

utilization of limited R&D resources• To Promote coordination and synergy among industry, academia,

and government in technology development• To Build the national technology roadmap to the need of national

strategy and economic growth toward 2012• To Follow top-down vision-driven approach to the identification of key technologies

58

Why TRM?

• In order to build a knowledge-based economy, the「New Grand Planning」, in which science and technology play a core role, is required. – Economic development and national competitiveness are based on

science and technological development.

• We are facing a very difficult international competition– Because, while advanced countries are running at a speed of 100 km/h

by car, we are racing at a speed of 20-30 km/h on a bicycle– There is hope, however, because a bicycle can go to alley places

where a car can not go. In that sense, we have to build a good strategy by using wisely all our resources.

59

Introduction

History’02. 4. 18: Reported to NSTC(National Science and Technology

Council) the plan for NTRM

’02. 7. 22: Reported the results of the 1st phase NTRM to NSTC

’02. 8. 21: Started 2nd phase NTRM with 800 scientists & engineers

’02. 11. 8: Conducted public hearings

’02. 11. 28: Reported the results of the 2nd phase NTRM to NSTC

60

IntroductionApproach

<Second Phase><First Phase>

Foresight in domestic and internationalindustry and technology development

Analysis of environment and needs

Finding sectoral strategic productsand functions

Selecting core technologies

General review and modificationCollecting comments through the Internet, public hearings and ministerial meetings

Reporting to NSTC (July)

Review of strategic products, needs, and functional core technologies

Making a Technology Road Map-Setting performance targets by technology-Prediction of technology development-Selecting technology alternatives-SWOT Analysis-Making TRM

General review and modificationCollecting comments through the Internet, public hearings and ministerial meetings

Reporting to NSTC (December)

61

Introduction

Approach: 1st Phase• Analysis of Industrial Need 5 visions 13 Directions 49 Strategic Product/Functions 99 Key Technologies

• Analyzing 10major industries in Korea- Electronic, Transportation, Energy/Environment, Construction, Entertainment, Materials, Broadcasting/Telecommunication, Business Service, Pharmaceutics/Healthcare, Agriculture

NTRM Head Council KISTEPProject Team

NSTC Office

Industry I Committee

Inter-Government

CoordinationTaskForce

Industry IICommittee

Industry X Committee

Industry IXCommittee………..

62

Approach to identify the strategic products/functions

Strategic ImportanceStrategic

ImportanceEconomic

ImpactEconomic

ImpactPotential for

SuccessPotential for

Success

Strategic Products/Functions

Strategic Products/Functions

- Market Growth- New Industry Availability

- National Competitiveness

- R&D Capability - Competitive Position

A typical prioritization is made through a group decision making process of discussion, debate, and consensus building among the domain experts

• Core technologies to strengthen the national competitiveness• Social and environmental technologies to improve quality of life• IT and information infrastructure to nurture competitiveness • New and environmentally-friendly energy technologies to obtain clean energy resource• Innovative technologies to create new industries and businesses

63

Introduction

NTRM Head Council KISTEPProject Team

NSTC Office

Vision I Committee

Inter-Government

CoordinationTaskForce

Vision IICommittee

Vision IIICommittee

Vision V Committee

TRM team A TRM team B TRM team C TRM team N………..

Vision IVCommittee

Approach: 2nd Phase• Analysis of Industrial Need 5 visions 13 Directions 49 Strategic Product/Functions 99 Key Technologies NTRM

• Incorporate existing TRMs into NTRM with necessary modifications• Handle basic S&T separately from NTRM based on bottom-up approach• NTRM include Macro Roadmaps for strategic product/functions anddetailed TRM for chosen key technologies

64

NTRM by 5 Visions

65

Five National S&T Visions 2012

11Building an information-

knowledge-intelligence society

22 Aiming at Bio-Healthtopia

33 Advancing the E2 Frontier

44 Upgrading the Value of Major Industries of Korea Today

55 Improving National Safety and Prestige

66

1. Building an Information-Knowledge-Intelligence Society

Anytime, Anywhere,Any-device Communication

Innovation in Contents & Service Ambient Intelligence

Meeting a variety of human needs in all areas of life by making IT service

more intelligent, mobile, and user-friendly

67

Vision : Building an Information-Knowledge-Intelligence Society

Direction of Development• Anytime, Anywhere, Any-device Communication• Innovation in Contents & Service• Ambient Intelligence

Strategic products and Functions• Digital Convergence• Knowledge/Information Security• Intelligent Robot, etc.

Key Technologies• Intelligent Network Technology, • High-Speed Wireless Multimedia Technology• Next Generation Information System Technology• Information Security Technology etc.

68

Anytime, Anywhere,Any-device

Communication Mobile & Wearable IT Device

Ubiquitous Network

Intelligent Computing

Digital Convergence

Innovation inContents &

Service

Ambient Intelligence

Intelligent Medical System

Intelligent Transport System

Intelligent Building/Home

Intelligent Home Appliance

Intelligent Robot

Intelligent Man-Machine Interface

Knowledge/Information Security

Business Service

E-Commerce

Contents

Bio-Diagnosis TechnologyDisplay Technology

Intelligent Home Appliance Technology

Home Network TechnologyMEMS Technology

Art Intelligent Technology

Culture Original Form Restore Technology

Cyber Communication Technology

Game Engine Technology

Digital Contents Authoring Technology

Movie/Video/Digital Media Standardization

Information Security TechnologyDigital Information Design TechnologyInformation Search DBMS TechnologyE-Finance Technology

E-marketplace Technology

Tera-bit Optical Communication Elements TechnologyDigital Signal Processing Technology

Wire&Wireless Integration System Device Technology

High Density Storage Technology

Intelligent Network Technology

New Semiconductor Device Technology

Mobile Multimedia Contents Technology

High-Speed Wireless Multimedia Technology

Optical Internet Technology

Information-Knowledge-Intelligence

Society

Next Generation Information System Technology

S/W Standard/Design/Reuse

Digital Broadcasting Technology

VisionDirection of Development

Strategic products and Functions

Key Technologies

69

Portfolio Analysis of Strategic Products and Functions

Very Low Low Middle High Very High

VeryLow

Low

Middle

High

VeryHigh

Intelligent Computing(765 billion $ in 2004)

E-Commerce(28.7 trillion $ in 2010)

Business Service(157 trillion won in 2010)

Knowledge/Information Security(30 billion $ from 2005)

Man-MachineInterface Intelligence(Creating high-value

-added, Complex products

Intelligent Robot(17 billion $ in 2005

Intelligent Building/Home(15 trillion in 2010)

Intelligent Transport System(425 billion $ in 2015)

Intelligent Medical System(Creating new markets,reducing medical costs)

Digital Convergence(570 billion $ in 2004)

Ubiquitous Network(2.03 trillion $ in 2005))

Intelligent Home Appliance(360 billion $ in 2005)

Culture Contents(1.17 trillion $ in 2005)

Mobile & Wearable IT Device

(73.3 billion $ in 2005)

EconomicImpact

High

Middle

Potential for success

Low

Strategic Importance

Intelligent Network

NextGen.

Network

Optical Fiber Comm.

· Free trade and unlimited competition based e-Commerce· e-Hospital/Education for protection of environment, solving of traffic problem and old ages’

society · Shift a society from the industry to the knowledge and IT· Networking technology with intelligence, high quality, high capacity, and high stabilization

Change Factor

2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2

Backbone network

Distribution network

Wireless/mobile network

Premises network

• Wired/wireless/broadcasting converged multimedia network • Hundreds times faster than today’s internet speed• Networking all of industrial life-cycle elements such as planning, production, delivery,

distribution, and consumption• Realization of the future society infrastructure that will provide lower energy, higher efficiency,

and stabilized community

Assessment offuture

Strategic Products/Functions: Ubiquitous Network

VisionⅠBuilding an Information-Knowledge-Intelligence SocietyDirection of development: Communication Anytime/Anywhere/Any device

Hundreds of megabits PON Numbers of gigabits PONTens of megabits xDSL

Voice/data integrated gateway Wired/Wireless Integrated gateway

Hundreds of megabits xDSL

Hundreds of megabits home

networkHundreds of megabits WLAN access

Economicaleffects

Strategicimportance

Hundreds of gigabits switch/router Tens of terabits switch/router

Prod

ucts

and

func

tions Numbers of terabits fiber optic

transmission Tens of terabits fiber optic transmission

Tens of megabits WLAN access

Intelligent Integrated NMS ▣●IP based NMS ■◎

Service platform▣●Open network architecture ■◎

Key

tech

nolo

gies

Service convergence■◎

Network convergence■●

FTTC FTTH■◎ ■◎

Numbers of terabits packet switching■◎

4G ultra high-speed wireless service

SDR based terminal

■◎

■●

3.5G high-speed wireless service■◎4G mobile comm. Mobile WLAN■●

●연구개발전략■ ▣ □

high low Importance ● basic research ⊙ international collaboration

◎ applied research ○ OutsourcingR&D strategy

High-speed Wireless Multimedia/ 4G Mobile Communication

2002

wideband CDMA modemnarrowband CDMA modem

2012

High-speed packet modem

Tec

hnol

ogy

2007

Pro

duct

QAM,OFDM,Diversity,Turbo code

Power control, Smart antenna, Interference, SDR

IP-based RANFixed ATM/IP

Network interworking(GW)

Cdma20001x EV systemCdma20001x EV-DO/ EV-DV

W-CDMA system/ HSDPA

Wireless IP core tech.(QoS, Handoff,Resource management)

Homogeneous network Integration

ALL-IP core network

DO/GPRS DO/DV/GPRS enhancements

Adhoc, Bluetooth PAN

HMI/Hot Spot system2G cellular system

4G mobile comm.

High-speed adaptive RAN

Active core network

IP-based RAN with smart antenna

high-speed hot spot > 100 Mbps

■●■◎

■●

■● ■●

■●

■●

▣◎

▣◎

▣◎▣●

▣●

▣●

■●

■●

■●

▣●

■●

■●

HighMedium

Low

Competitiveness of domestic technology

■ ▣ □



Home Network

Technology

Digital Signal Processing Technology

Supporting Technologies

Wire&Wireless

IntegrationSystem Device

Technology

• The progress of Home network

• The progress of Backbone Network that supports multimedia communicationChange Factor

2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2

IntelligentHome

Appliance

•Cyber world that can provide

Remote control, Remote inspection of a meter, Remote energy control,

Remote diagnosis, e-Commerce

• Edutainment (education + entertainment) world that can provideReal-time remote education, Network game, Video-on-demand service

• Context-awareness world that can provide

Situation Awareness, Context Awareness

• Augmented-reality world with next generation display technology

• Development of Home-networking and Intelligent S/W technology industry

Assessment of future

Strategic Products/Functions: Intelligent Home Appliance

VisionⅠBuilding an Information-Knowledge-Intelligence SocietyDirection of development: Ambient Intelligence

Home Gateway / Server Telematics

Home Theater

Intelligent Robot

Interactive TV 3D Display TV

Broadcasting, Telecommunication, Multimedia STB and Digital TV

Large size PDP, FED(Field Emission Display), Elecroluminescent Display, 3-Dimension Display

▣◎ Network: 400 Mbps ▣◎ Network: 1,600 Mbps

▣◎ Network: 10,000 Mbps

■◎ Wireless Network: 11 Mbps

◎○Wireless Network: 55 Mbps

■● Wireless Network: 110 Mbps

■◎ IP based Middleware ■○Multimedia, Security Middleware

■◎ non-IP based Middleware ■● Integrated Middleware

■⊙ Wireless Backbone Network for Wire & Wireless Cluster Network

■● Broudter for integration with Wire/ Wireless Cluster Network & Wireless Backbone

■● Seamless Network Access for Ubiquitous Network & IPv6

◎ Speech Processing ■● Automated Speech Recognition

◎ Image Processing ■● Automated Image Recognition

■● Intelligent Context-Information Processing

Prod

ucts

and

func

tions

Key

tech

nolo

gies

■ ▣ □



effectsEconomical Strategic

importance

Ethernet

IEEE 1394b(3200MB)

IEEE802.3 (10/100MB) EPON (2500MB)

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

IEEE 1394 IEEE 1394b(1600MB)IEEE 1394-1995, 1394a

Wireless LANIEEE802.11b

(11Mbps) IEEE 802.11aIEEE 802.11g Chips

WPAN

IEEE802.15.3(54Mbps)

IEEE802.15.SG3a (100Mbps)

Brouter

IEEE1394 over wirelss(53Mbps)

Ethernet over wireless(54Mbps)

Bluetooth Bluetooth 1.1 (732.2kbps) Bluetooth 2.0 (10Mbps)

IEEE802.11a , IEEE802.11g (54Mbps)

IEEE802.11b, 11a chips

IEEE802.15.3(108Mbps)

IEEE802.15.4 (200kbps)

IEEE802.15.SG3a (200Mbps)

IEEE1394 over wirelss(200Mbps)

Ethernet over wireless (200Mbps)

▣◎ ■⊙

▣○ ▣◎■⊙

□◎ ■⊙

■⊙ ■◎■⊙

▣⊙

■●

■●

■⊙

■● ■⊙

□● ▣⊙

□● ■⊙

■ ▣ □

high low Importance

● basic research ⊙ international collaboration◎ applied research ○ OutsourcingR&D strategy

70

2. Aiming at Bio-Healthtopia

Building a society with a high quality of life from meeting the increased

demand for high-quality therapeutic agents and timely supply of new

diagnosis, prevention & therapy

New Drug Discovery & Development

Innovation in Disease Treatment, Diagnosis

& Prevention

71

Vision : Aiming at Bio-HealthtopiaDirection of Development• New Drug Discovery & Development• Innovation in Disease Treatment, Diagnosis & Prevention

Strategic Products and Functions• Anticancer Agent• Vaccines, Diagnostics• Gene Therapy, etc.

Key Technologies• High-Throughput Screening• Drug Candidates Optimization• Drug Delivery System, etc.

72

Cell TherapyCell Therapy



Innovation in Disease Treatment,

Diagnosis & Prevention

Innovation in Disease Treatment,

Diagnosis & Prevention

CardiovascularAnticancer AgentCNSPulmonaryMetabolismImmune System Vaccines

CardiovascularAnticancer AgentCNSPulmonaryMetabolismImmune System Vaccines

DiagnosticsDiagnostics

Clincial StudiesClincial StudiesSafety & Efficacy EvaluationSafety & Efficacy EvaluationDrug Delivery SystemDrug Delivery SystemFormulationFormulationMass Production Mass Production Drug Candidates OptimizationDrug Candidates OptimizationDrug-Likeness EvaluationDrug-Likeness EvaluationTarget ValidationTarget ValidationTarget IdentificationTarget IdentificationHigh-Throughput ScreeningHigh-Throughput Screening

Application of BioinformationApplication of BioinformationBioinformaticsBioinformaticsPhysiological Function Monitoring Physiological Function Monitoring Gene Delivery System Gene Delivery System Stem Cell Stem Cell BiomaterialsBiomaterialsBio-chip & SensorBio-chip & SensorBio-RoboticsBio-RoboticsBio-imagingBio-imagingBio-Signal AnalysisBio-Signal Analysis

Aiming at

Bio-Healthpia

Prognostic SystemPrognostic System

Gene TherapyGene Therapy

Medical Imaging SystemMedical Imaging System

Rehabilitation SystemRehabilitation System

Lead discoveryLead discovery

FocusedArea

FocusedArea


Strategic Products and Functions Key Technologies

73



VeryLow

Low

Middle

High

VeryHigh


EconomicImpact

중 추 신 경 계(2012 년 1,377 억 달 러 )

호 흡 기 계(2012 년 345 억 달 러 )

대 사 계(2012 년 605 억 달 러 )

면 역 계(2012 년 358 억 달 러 )

백 신(2012 년 148 억 달 러 )

정 밀 의 료 영 상 기 기(2010 년 33.8 조 엔 )

재 활 의 료 복 지 시 스 템(2010 년 153.4 조 엔 )

세 포 치 료 및재 생 의 료 시 스 템

(2010 년 150 억 달 러 )예 측 의 료 시 스 템(2010 년 241 억 달 러 )

항 암 제(2012 년

900 억 달 러 )

심 혈 관 계(2012 년

1,149 억 달 러 )

생 체 진 단 기 기/시 약

(2010 년107 조 엔 )

유 전 자 치 료(2010 년

4,000 억 달 러 )CNS

Pulmonary

Metabolism

ImmuneSystem

Vaccines

Medical Imaging System Rehabilitation System

Cell therapyPrognostic System

AnticancerAgent

Cardi-vascular

Diagnostics

Genetherapy

High

Middle

Low


74

3. Advancing E2(Environment and Energy) Frontier

Building a society that recycles and lives in harmony with nature and making an efficient

and stable energy supply & utilization system corresponding to the international

environment regulation

Supplying Efficient, Stableand Clean Energy

Pleasant andHealthy Life

75

Vision : Advancing Energy/Environment Frontier

Direction of Development• Pleasant and Healthy Life• Supplying Efficient, Stable and Clean Energy

Strategic Products and Functions• Reduction of Environmental Pollution• Management of Sustainable Ecosystem• Acquisition of Future Energy Source and High Value Added Energy, etc.

Key Technologies• Air-Pollution Reduction Tech.• Environment-Friendly Material Tech.• Ecosystem, Soil Pollution, Groundwater Restoration Tech., etc.

76

Advancing Energy/

Environment Frontier

SupplyingEfficient/

Stableand Clean

Energy

Pleasant andHealthy Life

Acquisition of Future Energy

Source and High Value

Energy

Efficient Use of Energy

Environmental Health Tech.

Marine Pollution Assessment & Reduction Tech.

Ecosystem, Soil Pollution, Groundwater Restoration Tech.

Environment-Friendly Material Tech.Clean Production Tech.Waste Reduction and Reuse Tech.

Water Quality Management & Sustainable Supply Tech.

Air-Pollution Reduction Tech.

Fuel Cell Tech.Solar Energy Tech.Smart Reactor Tech.Hydrogen Energy Tech.Bio-Energy Tech.Unused Energy Tech.Energy Saving Process Tech.Energy Material Tech.Small Cogeneration System Tech.

Recycling System Harmonizing with

Environment

Management of Sustainable

Ecosystem

Reduction of Environmental

Pollution


Strategic Products and Functions

Key Technologies

Highly sustainable electric power system

77



VeryLow

Low

Middle

High

VeryHigh


EconomicImpact

Efficient Use of Energy

Acquisition of Future Energy Source

and High Value Energy

Reduction of Environmental Pollution

Recycling System In Harmony

with Environment

Management of Sustainable Ecosystem

PotentialFor success

High

Middle

Low

78

4. Upgrading the Value of Major Industries of Korea Today

To pursue sustainable economic growth through strengthening the international competitiveness of the current main and infra

industries

Building New Material andComponent Industries

Transportation Vehicles and Systems of the Future

Next Generation Manufacturing and Mechatronics

Advancing residentialand social infrastructure

79

Vision : Upgrading Current Main IndustriesDirection of Development• Transportation Vehicles and Systems of the Future• Advancing residential and social infrastructure• Next Generation Manufacturing and Mechatronics• Building New Material and Component Industries

Strategic Products and Functions• New Automotive Systems• User-friendly advanced construction• Next Generation Manufacturing System• New Functional Information Materials/Devices, etc.

Key Technologies• New Automotive System Technologies (Hybrid, Intelligent, Fuel Cell)• Human Friendly Multi-functional Construction Tech.• Intelligent Manufacturing System, etc.

80

Next generationTransportation mechatronics New Railway Systems (Korean Type)

New Ocean Transportation Systems

New Automotive Systems

Mechtronics

Advancing of residential building

and social infrastructure

Advanced Precision Machining System

Next Generation Manufacturing System

Diversification of New Materials

Application

UpgradingCurrent

MainIndustries

User-friendly advanced constructionSustainable natural resources and effective development of national land

Highly Functional Metals/ Ceramics/ Polymers/ Textile

Nano Materials

New Functional Information Materials/Devices



Key Technologies

Integrated transporting System

New Automotive System Technologies (Hybrid, Intelligent, Fuel Cell)

High Value Added & Advanced Ship Technologies

Marine Plants & Equipment Technologies

High Seed & Light Rail Transportation System Technologies

Intelligent Manufacturing System TechnologyClean Manufacturing System TechnologyIntelligent Robot TechnologyUltra Precision Machining System TechnologyNano Machining Equipments & Process Technology

Intelligent Transporting System

Integrated Transporting System Technology

Sustainable Water Supply and Management tech.Oceanic Clean Energy Development Tech.

Human Friendly Multi-functional Construction Tech.Building Life Extending Tech.

Intelligent Manufacturing SystemClean Manufacturing System

National Land Expansion and Utilization Tech.

Next Generation Materials/ Devices Technology for Semiconductors/ Telecommunications/ displays/PackagingNano Materials TechnologyHighly Functional Metal TechnologyHighly Functional Ceramics TechnologyHighly Functional Polymers Technology

High Performance Multi Functional Textile Technology

81



VeryLow

Low

Middle

High

VeryHigh


EconomicImpact

New Ocean Transportation System

New Automotive

System

New Railway System(Korean Type)

IntegratedTransporting SystemUser-friendly

advanced construction

Sustainable natural resources and effective development of national land

Next GenerationManufacturing System

Advanced PrecisionMachining System

New FunctionalInformation Materials/

Devices

Nano Materials

Highly Functional Metals/ Ceramics/ Polymers/

Textile

Size of circle: Potential for success PotentialFor success

High

Middle

Low

82

5. Improving National Safety and Prestige5. Improving National Safety and Prestige

To build up technological capability in aerospace and to establish national strategy in food supply

Entering into the Aerospace Age

Food security and Preservation ofNatural Resources

83

Vision : Improving National Strategy and PrestigeDirection of Development• Entering into the Aerospace Age• Food Security and Preservation of Natural Resources

Strategic Products and Functions• Development of Satellite• Development of UAV• Establishment of Food Self-Sufficiency, etc.

Key Technologies• Satellite System Development• Satellite payload Technology• Unmanned Air Vehicle System• UAV auto-pilot technology• High Quality and yield Crops, etc.

84

ImprovingNational Strategy

andPrestige

Entering into the Space Age

Satellite System DevelopmentSatellite payload TechnologyLEO Satellite Launch VehicleLiquid Rocket EngineUnmanned Air Vehicle System

High Quality and yield Crops

BT- based Highly Profitable Agriculture and Fisheries Products Development, Processing and Preservation of High functional FoodsEnvironmentally friendly Technology for Marine Cultivation

Development of Satellite

Development of Launch Vehicle

Food SecurityEstablishment of

FoodSelf-Sufficiency

Development ofUAV

Development ofHelicopter

Establishment ofBio-resources

Self-sufficiency

Bio-resources Preservation and Utilization Technology

UAV auto-pilot technologyHelicopter System Advanced Helicopter Subsystem Technology

Establishment of Aerospace

Industry’s Fundamentals

Fundamentals of Sustainable Development



Key Technologies

85



VeryLow

Low

Middle

High

Very High


EconomicImpact

Development of Satellite

Development ofLaunch Vehicle

Development ofUAV

Development of Helicopter

Establishment ofFood Self-Sufficiency

Establishment ofBio-resources Self-sufficiency

PotentialFor success

High

Middle

Low

86

Expected Impacts

• Enhance the national R&D investment with the optimal utilization of limited R&D resources

• Promote coordination and synergy among industry, academia,and government in technology development

• Present guidelines for the selection and evaluation of government R&D programs

• To be incorporated in “National S&T Plan(2002-2006)”• Play a benchmarking role of non-governmental sector’s S&T plan

87

Implementation

• Incorporated in the “National S&T Grand Plan(2003-2007)”• Widely used in government ministry, Institute, and university• Play a benchmarking role of non-governmental sector’s S&T plan• Presented guidelines for the selection and evaluation of government

R&D programs: MOST(21C Frontier Program etc.)

88

Pilot Projects

89

Technology Management Generation & Exploitation processes

Markets/Customers

Sources of Technology

Technology Exploitation

Technology Generation

Strategy

ApplicationLicensing

CreationAcquisition

Know-How $

(Source: University of Cambridge)

90

Aims of Technology Roadmapping

• To support the start-up of company-specific TRM processes

• To establish key linkages between technology resources and business drivers

• To identify important gaps in market, product and technology intelligence

• To develop a ‘first-cut’ technology route map

• To support technology strategy and planning initiatives in the firm

• To support communication between technical and commercial functions

91

TRM – Schematic Diagram

Tech

nolog

y

Product

Business/Market

TIME

Benefits: • Guides technology R&D decision• Increase collaboration, shared knowledge and new partnership• Reduces the risk of costly investment

92

Roadmap Input Data Development

time

Prod

uct f

eatu

res

Business / Market drivers

Product featuresTe

chno

logy

solu

tions

AnalysisGrids (Source: University of Cambridge)

TechnologyRoadmap

Business /Market

Product /Service

Technology

93

Technology Roadmapping Procedure

Scenario Development:

Product

TechnologyCluster

• Product features• Clustering• Impact Analysis• Product strategy

• Technologyalternatives

• Clustering• Prioritization

• Charting: Linking technology resources to future market opportunities

Scenario Development:

Market

• Performancedimensions

• Market/businessdrivers

• Prioritization

ExploringVisions

ExploringVisions

DetailedRoadmap

• Deploy key technologies

• Decide the limitation of technology programs

• Charting

94

Subjects of Each WorkshopsVision Building• What is the vision

of EEI?

Scenario Development: Market

•Choosing the strategic products

•Product performances•Market / business drivers•Prioritization•SWOT analysis

Scenario Development: Market

•Choosing the strategic products

•Product performances•Market / business drivers•Prioritization•SWOT analysis

Scenario Development :Product

•Product features•Impact of product feature concepts•Product strategy•Charting

Scenario Development :Product

•Product features•Impact of product feature concepts•Product strategy•Charting

Vision Building• What is the vision

of EEI?

Technology Cluster•Key technology alternatives•Other resources•Clustering key technologies•Technology map•Technology tree•Disruptive technologies

Technology Cluster•Key technology alternatives•Other resources•Clustering key technologies•Technology map•Technology tree•Disruptive technologies

Detailed Technology Roadmap•Analyze technology maturity of each technology clusters•Decide the limitation of technology programs by analysis of performance improvement, commercial usefulness/benefits, resource requirements, threat factors and alternatives

Detailed Technology Roadmap•Analyze technology maturity of each technology clusters•Decide the limitation of technology programs by analysis of performance improvement, commercial usefulness/benefits, resource requirements, threat factors and alternatives

95

Exploring Visions

Day 1

Afternoon, Nov. 28, 2003

96

EEI’s Visions

What is the vision of EEI?What do you want to be at a particular future time?

☞ Define the purpose and long term goals of EEI : Focus on the desired results

Ex ) Enhance Thai industry’s innovative performance : Innovative company (industry) is to enjoy greater sales, profitability and global market share

97

Objectives of EEI TRM Projects

Objectives of Current of TRM traning workshop-Introduction of TRM concepts and methodology-Training of facilitator for main EEI’ s TRM Projects

Objectives of EEI TRM projects----

98

Worksheet : Vision and ObjectiveWorksheet : Vision and Objective

Visions:

Objective#

99

Scenario Development:Market

Day 2


100

Scenario Development:Market

•Overview of Day 1•Objectives of overall TRM process•Overview of EEI’s visions and objectives•Choosing the strategic products•Product performances•Market / business drivers•Prioritization•SWOT analysis

101

Approach to identify the strategic products/functions

Strategic ImportanceStrategic

ImportanceEconomic ImpactEconomic Impact Potential for Success

Potential for Success

Strategic Products/FunctionsStrategic Products/Functions

- Market Growth- New Industry Availability

- National Competitiveness

- R&D Capability - Competitive Position


Econ

omic

Impa

ct


VeryLow

Low

Middle

High

VeryHigh

High

Middle


Low

102

Choosing the Strategic Products

Products#

103

Product Performance Dimensions

Performanceenvelope

Performancedimensions

(size, weight,speed, etc.)

Market drivers(pull)

Technology capabilitiesand constraints(push)

‘Performance’ providesa means of linking market, product andtechnology


104

Performance Dimensions

• These are aspects of product performance which are (or may be) important to the customer, and which technology can deliver

• Examples: size; speed; quality; reliability, reusability, price/cost, etc.

• Brainstorm performance dimensions• Sort into appropriate groups*• Note ‘key’ dimensions

* optional• Consider quantitative and qualitative dimensions

• May include market, product or technology ‘views’

• ‘Key’ dimensions are those which stand out as having high potential value to the customer or attractiveness to [EEI] (Source: University of Cambridge)

105

Worksheet : Performance dimensionsWorksheet : Performance dimensions

Performance dimensions#

106

Market / Business Drivers

• These include external market (customer) and internal business ([EEI]) drivers, reflecting the underlying customer and business motivation, needs & benefits

• Examples:- External (Market): cost of ownership; legislation; productivity- Internal: cost; time-to-market (higher level: profit, growth, etc.)

• Brainstorm market (customer) drivers• Brainstorm business ([EEI]) drivers• Sort into appropriate groups (10 max)

• Consider the trends and drivers affecting key customers and competition(intermediate & end customers?)

• A ‘level up’ from performance dimensions

• Drivers may vary with time and / or sector

• Consider strategic [EEI]objectives(Based on University of Cambridge)

107

Worksheet : Market DriversWorksheet : Market Drivers

Business DriverMarket Driver#

•Idenchey

&

pri51

tize

market

segmencs

•Pri51

tize

market

dr8

3rs

•Pri51 tize business dr8 3rs

•Consider

key

cus0.73rs

•Pri51

tizeft

/

may

vary

with

t

3.

and

/

or

segmenc

-s

hould

include

value

.73r

and

business

need,

legis3.38

3

(Source:

Un8

3rsity

of

Cambridge)

109

Worksheet : Prioritization of Market DriversWorksheet : Prioritization of Market Drivers

Market Driver PriorityMarket Segment#

110

Worksheet : Prioritization of Market/Business DriversWorksheet : Prioritization of Market/Business Drivers

PriorityGrouped Business Driver#

111

Competitive Position

• Identify competitors• Discuss the competitive position

• Focus on most important market segments and competitors

• What are the competitors’ strengths and weaknesses?

• What are the strategic implications for the business, products and technologies?


112

Worksheet : Assessment of CompetitorsWorksheet : Assessment of Competitors

Competitor Strength & Weakness Strategic ImplicationRecent activity#

113

SWOT analysis

• Strengths • Opportunities

• Weakness • Threat

• Markets, competitors, technology, alliances, skills, finance, etc.• Drivers: social, technological, environmental, economic, political, Value and Norm(STEEPV)

114

Worksheet : Strength, Weakness, Opportunities, ThreatWorksheet : Strength, Weakness, Opportunities, Threat

Strength#

Weakness#

Opportunities#

Threat#

115

What needs moreWhat needs more

• Consider market, competition, key customers and legislation

• Consider ‘high-level’ social, technological, ecological, economic and political factors, value and norms (STEEPV)

• Consider sources of information and mechanisms for filling gaps

116

Worksheet : What needs moreWorksheet : What needs more

Items Where is the knowledge and How to get it?#

117

Scenario Development: Products

Day 2

Afternoon, Nov. 29, 2003

118

Scenario Development:Product

• Introduction to “Scenario Development : Product”• Product features• Impact of product features• Product strategy•Charting

119

Product Features

• These are key product / service features or concepts which havethe potential of addressing the market and business drivers

• Examples: modular; easy to install; lowest cost of ownership, etc.

• Brainstorm product / service feature concepts• Clustering• Rate risk / complexity / effort for product features• Identify areas of synergy with current products & technology

• Consider performancedimensions

• Think about future product brochure content

• Reuse of:- architecture- technology- knowledge- code

(Based on University of Cambridge)

120

Worksheet : Product featuresWorksheet : Product features

Product features Notes#

121

Worksheet : Clustered product featuresWorksheet : Clustered product features

Clustered Product feature Notes/ constituent product features#

122

Impact of Product Features

Prod

uct F

eatu

res

• For each product feature concept, rank ‘impact’ oneach market / business driver in turn

• Use “L”for low, “M”for medium, and “H”for high impact• Identify key product features that have high impact• Identify key market/business drivers

• Impact is definedas the ‘potentialfor satisfying thedriver’

• Use ‘X’ if the impact is negative

• ‘Cross-impact’grids can be usedto explore dependencies


Market / Business Drivers

Rank cellsfor impact

123

Worksheet : Impact of product featuresWorksheet : Impact of product features

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

ProductFeatureConcepts

Market /BusinessDrivers

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. A.

B.

C.

D.

E.

Market drivers for segment1 Business


124

Product StrategyWhat alternative ‘product strategies for a specific market segment’ might satisfy the range of market & business drivers in the future?

Platforms? Evolution?

• Market- Market/business

drivers- Competitive

position- SWOTanalysis

• Product-Product features-Impact of product features

• ProductStrategy

What alternative ‘product strategies for a specific market segment’ might satisfy the range of market & business drivers in the future?

Platforms? Evolution?

125

Product Strategy: Component

Current Next generation Follow-on generation

A Component

ComponentB

ComponentC

126

Product Strategy: Whole System

127

Charting of Products

• Chart market milestones• Chart drivers, trends and known market triggers

(i.e. STEEPV factors from “Scenario Development : Market”, strategic milestones, legislative events, competitor activity)

• Chart evolution of product features– future product evolution, referring to key product feature areas– i.e. by how much and by when?– ‘Vision’ reflects market need and technology capability

128

Technology Cluster and Detailed TRM

Day 3


129

Technology Cluster andDetailed TRM

•Overview of Day 1 & 2• Introduction to “Technology Cluster and

Detailed TRM”• Key technology alternatives• Tech-tree• Tech-map• Impact on product features• Disruptive Technologies

130

Finding Key Technology Alternatives

• These are potential technological alternatives which could deliver thedesired product / service features, grouped into areas

• Examples: intelligent control; laser cutting & joining, etc.

Product

A

B

A’

B’C

P

P

Tech. Cluster C

Tech. Cluster A

Tech. Cluster B

Product 1Product 2

131

Exploring the related technologies; Tech treeExploring the related technologies; Tech tree

Product Function Related technology#

132

Worksheet : Technology TreeWorksheet : Technology Tree

FunctionsProducts Technology

133

Worksheet : Key TechnologyWorksheet : Key Technology

Key Technology Notes#

134

Impact of technology responseProduct Features

Tech

nolo

gyal

tern

ativ

es

• For each technology capability, rank ‘impact’ oneach product feature concept in turn

• Use “L” for low, “M” for medium, and “H” for high impact• Identify key technology capabilities that have high

impact across multiple features (synergy)*

• Impact is definedas the ‘potentialfor satisfying thedriver’

• Use ‘X’ if the impact is negative

• ‘Cross-impact’grids can be usedto explore dependencies

* optional(Source: University of Cambridge)

Rank cellsfor impact

135

Worksheet : Impact of technology areasWorksheet : Impact of technology areas

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

TechnologyAlternatives

ProductFeatures

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.

11.

136

Clustering of Key Technologies

Product

A

B

A’

B’

C

P

P

Tech. Cluster C

Tech. Cluster A

Tech. Cluster B

Product 1Product 2

137

Worksheet : Key Technology ClusterWorksheet : Key Technology Cluster

Key technology cluster Notes / constituent technology solutions#

138

Disruptive Technologies

• Exploring emerging or new, disruptive technologies– Newly emerging or disruptive technologies, but anticipated to

have profound impacts on the future market, must be identified for alternatives.

Emerging or new, disruptive Techs.Emerging or new, disruptive Techs.


TRMTRM


Selected

Not SelectedKeep Monitoring

Put into

Put into

139

Worksheet : Disruptive Technology and Related ProductWorksheet : Disruptive Technology and Related Product

Disruptive Technology Related Product#

140

Charting of Technology Clusters and Linking

• Chart preferred technological clusters, referring to key technology areas

• Chart disruptive technologies

• Draw linkages between market, product and technology elements

• Note associated issues / queries / ideas on map

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Detailed Roadmap(example)

WearableDisplay

LED+scannigLED+scannig

p-Si TFT LCD3D Goggle

CGS LCDReflection type LCDFerroelectric LCD

StereoscopicHolography

Intelligent elementp-Si TFT LCDa-Si TFT LCD

Si TFT LCDOrganic EL

CRT Flat TV Digital Integration TV

E-bulletin board Electronic advertisement, IlluminationStadium Wall display Exhibition hall Video wall

CRT

CRT

CRT

CRTLCD projector

LCDPDP

LED

DLP projector

LCD,PDP,PALC PDP,PALC,Si -LCDPDP,PALC,LCD Multi -

Functional 3DGoggle -less 3D


Film display devices(LCD, EL)

Film LCD

OADisplay

AVDisplay

HMD , PDA Mobile tool Mobile network PC

Wrist visual phone Card-TVLED+scannigLED+scannig

p-Si TFT LCD3D Goggle

CGS LCDReflection type LCDFerroelectric LCD

StereoscopicHolography

Intelligent elementp-Si TFT LCDa-Si TFT LCD


Cellular phone E-book, E- newspaper, E-magazineSheet PC

CRT Flat TV Digital Integration TVNote-PC Flat PC monitor Multi- functional Display

Home theater HDTV Classroom, Conference hall

Stadium Wall display Exhibition hall Video wall

CRT

CRT

CRT

CRTLCD projector

LCDPDP

3D

LED

LCD,PDP PDP,PALC,Si -LCDPDP,PALC,LCD Multi -

Functional 3D

Flexible LCD, Flexible OLED

Goggle -less 3D





Film LCD

Paperlike

Highquality

Highreality

■

■

AMOLEDPDP, LCD-TV■

■

●

●

Digital Paper

E- Paper

⊙

◎

Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 FPD TECHNOLOGY ROAD MAPFPD TECHNOLOGY ROAD MAP

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Detailed Roadmap(example)

Now 2005

LCTN Mode

New LC Mode High Speed + Wide V/A Mode

CRT Compatible

ProcessInnovation

Reduced Process StepMaterial Innovation

Discrete Elements

Low Temp. Poly -Si System LCD

85 ~ 100 dpi

Flexible Substrate

FutureTFT LCD

HybridDrivingCircuit

Process InnovationProcess Innovation- 250 step → 100 stepCost InnovationCost Innovation- $25/inch → $10/inch

Circuit Integration

Paper Like Display

Sheet Backlight

200 ~ 300 dpi

2010

One Chip

Now

LCTN Mode

New LC Mode High Speed + Wide V/A Mode

CRT Compatible

ProcessInnovation

Reduced Process StepMaterial Innovation

Discrete Elements


85 ~ 100 dpi

Flexible Substrate

FutureTFT LCD

HybridDriving


Circuit Integration

Paper Like Display

Sheet Backlight

200 ~ 300 dpi

2010

One Chip

Now

LCTN Mode

New LC Mode High Speed + Wide V/A ModeHigh Speed + Wide V/A Mode

CRT Compatible CRT Compatible

ProcessInnovation

Reduced Process StepMaterial InnovationMaterial Innovation

Discrete ElementsDiscrete Elements


85 ~ 100 dpi 85 ~ 100 dpi

Flexible SubstrateFlexible Substrate

FutureTFT LCD

HybridHybridDriving


Circuit IntegrationCircuit Integration

Paper Like DisplayPaper Like Display

Sheet BacklightSheet Backlight

200 ~ 300 dpi

2010

One Chip

TFT-LCD TECHNOLOGY ROAD MAPTFT-LCD TECHNOLOGY ROAD MAP

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TRM Document Template1. Introduction and Background• Mission/vision• Project goals, objectives and end states• Scope and boundary conditions of the

roadmapping effort• The current industry: its products,

customers, suppliers and manufacturing processes

• Market trends and projections• Relevant constraint (regulatory,

stakeholder, budget, etc.)

2. Technical needs and capabilities• Targeted products• Performance dimensions and product

features• Current science and technology capabilities• Competitive analysis• Product strategy and targets

1. Introduction and Background• Mission/vision• Project goals, objectives and end states• Scope and boundary conditions of the

roadmapping effort• The current industry: its products,

customers, suppliers and manufacturing processes

• Market trends and projections• Relevant constraint (regulatory,

stakeholder, budget, etc.)

2. Technical needs and capabilities• Targeted products• Performance dimensions and product

features• Current science and technology capabilities• Competitive analysis• Product strategy and targets

3. Technology development strategy• Technology Clusters• Evaluation and prioritization of technologies• TRM• Recommended technologies

4. Conclusion• Recommendations• Plan to implement recommendations

5. Appendices• Roadmapping process• Participants

3. Technology development strategy• Technology Clusters• Evaluation and prioritization of technologies• TRM• Recommended technologies

4. Conclusion• Recommendations• Plan to implement recommendations

5. Appendices• Roadmapping process• Participants

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Future Works Needed

Consider how best to ‘roll-out’ the process

• Consider market, product and technology aspects & key challenges• Consider sources of information and mechanisms for filling gaps• What should the TRM look like? What key information should it convey ?• What are the success factors and potential barriers for TRM process

development- first implementation and as an ongoing process ?

• Benefits / problems with TRM process / approach?• Next steps?

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Keeping Roadmapping Alive

• Single (isolated) application of roadmapping- e.g. for assessment of particular opportunities

• Re-visiting a roadmap that has previously been developed- Start with existing roadmap- Review underlying assumptions, key conclusions, assess progress, and update roadmap- Use the existing roadmap as a starting point for other activities (e.g. core competence assessment)

• Rolling out the roadmapping process to other parts of the business- Top-down (driven by senior management) or bottom-up (‘organic’) approaches- Demonstrate and communicate the value of roadmapping to the business- Ensure that staff are trained in the application and facilitation of the approach

The full potential of roadmaps is only realised when they become part of the thinking inthe firm, are integrated with other activities, and are kept current.The ‘first-cut’ roadmap is a starting point…

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Conclusion of Workshop• Question, Comments ?• Real Technology Roadmapping for EEI

1. Identify need & benefits2. Identify industry champion & leader3. Identify resource needs and sources4. Establish process5. Develop roadmap6. Implementation

• Follow-up Workshop– Jan. 15-16, 2004

• Evaluation questionnaires

Technology Roadmap Workshop · 11:50 SWOT analysis and gaps -Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities &...

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