Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish...

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Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist [email protected] 1 12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

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Page 1: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Technology Industry /Finnish Economic OutlookDecember 2020

Jukka PalokangasPrincipal [email protected]

112/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Page 2: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

The Finnish Technology Industry Is Comprised of

Five Sub-Sectors

212/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

ELEKTRONICS AND ELECTROTECHNICAL INDUSTRYABB, Ensto, Microsoft Mobile,

Murata Electronics, Nokia, Planmeca,

Polar Electro, Suunto, Vacon, Vaisala…

METALS INDUSTRY

Boliden, Componenta, Kuusakoski,

Luvata, Outokumpu, Outotec,

Ovako, Sacotec, SSAB …

MECHANICAL ENGINEERING

Abloy, Cargotec, Finn-Power, Fiskars,

Glaston, Kone, Konecranes, Metso,

Meyer Turku, Normet, Oras, Patria,

Pemamek, Ponsse, Stala, Valmet,

Valtra, Wärtsilä…

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

Affecto, Basware, Bilot, CGI, Comptel,

Digia, Efecte, Enfo, F-Secure, Fujitsu

Finland, IBM, Innofactor, Knowit,

Microsoft, Nixu, Tieto…

CONSULTING ENGINEERING

A-Insinöörit, Citec, Elomatic, Etteplan, FCG,

Granlund, Neste Jacobs, Pöyry, Ramboll,

Rejlers, SITO, SWECO, WSP…

Page 3: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

The Finnish Technology Industry Is Comprised of

Five Sub-Sectors

3

ELEKTRONICS AND ELECTROTECHNICAL INDUSTRY• Data communications equipment, electricalmachinery, medical technology

• Turnover (2019): 18.0 billion euros• Personnel (2019): 38,700

METALS INDUSTRY• Steel products, non-ferrous metals, castings, metallic minerals

• Turnover (2019): 10.7 billion euros• Personnel (2019): 15,800

MECHANICAL ENGINEERING• Machinery, metal products, vehicles• Turnover (2019): 32.8 billion euros• Personnel (2019): 134,200

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY• IT services, applications and programming

• Turnover (2019): 14.8 billion euros• Personnel (2019): 74,100

CONSULTING ENGINEERING• Expertise for construction industry and infrastructure

• Turnover (2019): 6.6 billion euros• Personnel (2019): 56,200

12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Page 4: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

The Technology Industry –

the Largest Export Sector in Finland

4

• Some 50 % of total exports.

• Some 310,000 employed directly in the sector, including indirect effects 650,000people.

• Effect on value added totaling € 57 billion, or 28% of GDP value added.

• Bring to Finland € 18 billion tax revenue annually.

• Investments about EUR 5.0 billionannually in Finland.

• 70 % of private-sector R&D investment.

12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Page 5: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Value Added to the Economy Generated by the

Technology Industry Is EUR 55 Billion, or over 28%

of GDP * (2017)

528.12.2020 Teknologiateollisuus

28,8; 53 %

15,6; 29 %

10,1; 18 %

A total of EUR 54.5 billion

Impact on technology industry(direct influence)

Impact on other industries(indirect influence)

Impact on private consumption(income effect)

*) GDP value added was EUR 193.3 billion in 2017.Source: Economic Impact of the Technology Industry in Finland 11/2018

Page 6: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Technology Industry Generates nearly 650,000

Jobs in Finland (over 25% of All Employees) (2017)

628.12.2020 Teknologiateollisuus

304 600; 47 %

225 800; 35 %

114 600; 18 %

A total of 644 900 employees

Impact on technology industry(direct influence)

Impact on other industries(indirect influence)

Impact on private consumption(income effect)

10 jobs in the technology industry bring 11 jobs to the rest of the economy

Source: Economic Impact of the Technology Industry in Finland 11/2018

Page 7: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Every Job in the Technology Industry Generates

almost another Job in the Services (2017)

728.12.2020 Teknologiateollisuus

295 100; 87 %

12 200; 3 %

33 100; 10 %

Impact on other industries and on private consumption: 340,300 employees

Services*

Primary production

Processing*

*) Excl. the services industries in the technology industry.Source: Economic Impact of the Technology Industry in Finland 11/2018

Page 8: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Technology Industry Generates over 18 Billion

Euros in Tax Revenue Annually in Finland (2017)

828.12.2020 Teknologiateollisuus

9,2; 50 %

4,3; 24 %

4,7; 26 %

A total of EUR 18.2 billion

Impact on technology industry(direct influence)

Impact on other industries(indirect influence)

Impact on private consumption(income effect)

Source: Economic Impact of the Technology Industry in Finland 11/2018

Page 9: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Turnover of the Technology Industry in Finland

9Source: Macrobond, Statistics Finland, Technology Industries of Finland 12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Page 10: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

10*) In addition to goods exports the sector exported services worth some 14-15 billion euros.Source: National Board of Customs, Statistics Finland

Export of Technology Industry Goods from Finland by Area in 2019

Total goods exports 32.5 billion euros*

North America3.15 billion €9.2 %

Western Europe18.23 billion €53.3 %

South and Middle America0.99 billion €2.9 %

Central and Eastern Europe5.94 billion €17.4 %

Africa0.45 billion €1.3 %

Middle and Central East0.51 billion €1.5 %

Asia4.93 billion €14.4 %

12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Page 11: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Technology, Forest and Chemical Industries Provide 81 % of Finland's Goods and Services Exports Revenue Goods and service exports: billion euros and the share of Finnish exports in 2017

11*) Service exports industry-specific data for the year 2017 are preliminary information. Source: Board of Customs, Statistics Finland (National Accounts, Foreign trade in services), Federation of Finnish Technology Industries

12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Technology industry;

43,6; 51 %

Forest industry;

12,9; 15 %

Chemical industry;

13; 15 %

Other branches;

16,1; 19 %

Page 12: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Turnover of the Industry and Technology Industry

in Finland

12Source: Macrobond, Statistics Finland12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Page 13: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Turnover of the Technology Industry in Finland

13Source: Macrobond, Statistics Finland12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Page 14: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Value of New Orders in the Technology Industry*

in Finland

14Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondentcompanies, latest observation July-September 2020.

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

11 000

12 000

Combined

Export

Domestic

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Million euros, at current prices

Change: III/2020 / III,2019 III,2020 / II,2020

Export: -8 % +13 %

Domestic: -24 % -4 %

Combined: -12 % +8 %

*) Excl. metalsindustry, gameindustry and data center companies

Technology Industries of Finland

12/28/2020

Page 15: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Value of Order Books in the Technology Industry*

in Finland

15Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondentcompanies, latest observation 30th September 2020.

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

20 000

22 000

24 000

26 000

28 000

30 000

Export

Domestic

Million euros, at current prices

Change: 30.9.2020 / 30.9.2019 30.9.2020 / 30.6.2020

Export: -4 % -1 %

Domestic: -3 % -1 %

Combined: -4 % -1 %

*) Excl. metalsindustry, gameindustry and data center companies

Combined

Technology Industries of Finland

12/28/2020

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Page 16: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Tender Requests* Received by the Technology Industry Companies in Finland

16Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondent companies, the last questionnaire in October 2020.

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Balance figure

*) ”Have you experienced a notable increase or decrease in the number of requests for tenders in recent weeks in comparison to the situation threemonths ago?”. Balance figure = the number of companies receiving more requests - the number of companies receiving less requests.”

Technology Industries of Finland

12/28/2020

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Page 17: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Value of New Orders in the Electronics and Electrotechnical Industry in Finland

17

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

6 500

7 000

7 500

Combined

Export

Domestic

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Million euros, at current prices

Change: III,2020 / III,2019 III,2020 / II,2020

Export: -5 % +6 %

Domestic: -4 % -10 %

Combined: -5 % +3 %

Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondentcompanies, latest observation July-September 2020.

Technology Industries of Finland

12/28/2020

Page 18: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Value of Order Books in the Electronics and

Electrotechnical Industry in Finland

18

0500

1 0001 5002 0002 5003 0003 5004 0004 5005 0005 5006 0006 5007 0007 5008 0008 500

Export

Domestic

Million euros, at current prices

Change: 30.9.2020 / 30.9.2019 30.9.2020 / 30.6.2020

Export: -4 % +3 %

Domestic: -2 % -8 %

Combined: -4 % +1 %

Combined

Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondentcompanies, latest observation 30th September 2020.

Technology Industries of Finland

12/28/2020

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Page 19: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Value of New Orders in the MechanicalEngineering in Finland

19

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

6 500

7 000

Combined

Export

Domestic

Million euros, at current prices

Change: III,2020 / III,2019 III,2020 / II,2020

Export: -12 % +27 %

Domestic: -44 % +10 %

Combined: -21 % +23 %

Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondentcompanies, latest observation July-September 2020.

Technology Industries of Finland

12/28/2020

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Page 20: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Value of Order Books in the Mechanical

Engineering in Finland

20

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

20 000

22 000

Export

Domestic

Million euros, at current prices

Change: 30.9.2020 / 30.9.2019 30.9.2020 / 30.6.2020

Export: -4 % -2 %

Domestic: -8 % -2 %

Combined: -5 % -2 %

Combined

Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondentcompanies, latest observation 30th September 2020.

Technology Industries of Finland

12/28/2020

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Page 21: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Value of New Orders in the Consulting Engineering

in Finland

21

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

Combined

Export

Domestic

Million euros, at current prices

Change: III,2020 / III,2019 III,2020 / II,2020

Export: -30 % +10 %

Domestic: +5 % -22 %

Combined: -2 % -19 %

Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondentcompanies, latest observation July-September 2020.

Technology Industries of Finland

12/28/2020

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Page 22: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Value of Order Books in the Consulting

Engineering in Finland

22

050

100150200250300350400450500550600650700750800

Export

Domestic

Million euros, at current prices

Change: 30.9.2020 / 30.9.2019 30.9.2020 / 30.6.2020

Export: -3 % -8 %

Domestic: +12 % -1 %

Combined: +10 % -2 %

Combined

Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondentcompanies, latest observation 30th September 2020.

Technology Industries of Finland

12/28/2020

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Page 23: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Value of New Orders in the Information

Technology* in Finland

23

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800Million euros, at current prices

Change: III,2020 / III,2019 III,2020 / II,2020

Combined: -1 % -14 %

*) Excl. game industry and data center companies

Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondentcompanies, latest observation July-September 2020.

Technology Industries of Finland

12/28/2020

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Page 24: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Value of Order Books in the Information

Technology* in Finland

24

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2 000

2 200Million euros, at current prices

Change: 30.9.2020 / 30.9.2019 30.9.2020 / 30.6.2020

Combined: +2 % +2 %

*) Excl. game industry and data center companies

Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ order book survey’s respondentcompanies, latest observation 30th September 2020.

Technology Industries of Finland

12/28/2020

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Page 25: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Technology Industry Personnel

2512/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Source: Statistics Finland, The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ labour force survey, Macrobond

Almost 40,000 employees affected by temporary lay-offs 30th September 2020

30th Sep

Page 26: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Technology Industry Personnel Recruitment in

Finland by Quarters

26Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ labour force survey

-4 000

-2 000

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

2014Q3 2015Q1 2015Q3 2016Q1 2016Q3 2017Q1 2017Q3 2018Q1 2018Q3 2019Q1 2019Q3 2020Q1 2020Q3

Change in the number of personnel compared to the previous quarter Number of people recruited during the quarter

Technology Industries of Finland

12/28/2020

Page 27: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Technology Industry Personnel in Finland by

Industry

2712/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Source: Statistics Finland, The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ labour force survey, Macrobond

30th Sep

Page 28: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Technology Industry Personnel in Subsidiaries

Abroad by Industry

2812/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ labour force survey, Macrobond

Page 29: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Technology Industry Personnel in Subsidiaries

Abroad by Country

2912/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries’ labour force survey

Information from year 2019

China, 45 832, 15 %

India, 29 658, 10 %

USA, 28 391, 10 %

Germany, 19 701, 7 %

Poland, 18 522, 6 %Mexico, 14 365, 5 %

Sweden, 14 192, 5 %

France, 11 313, 4 %

UK, 8 204, 3 %

Russia, 7 096, 2 %

Italy, 6 780, 2 %

Brazil, 6 490, 2 %

Canada, 5 171, 2 %

Other countries, 81 921, 27 %

Page 30: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Retirement of Technology Industry Personnel in

Finland

30

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Salaried employees

Blue collar employees

Individuals per year

Source: Wage inquiry of the Techonology Industries of Finland, Finnish Centre for Pensions, Statistics FinlandTechnology Industries of Finland

12/28/2020

Page 31: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Retirement of Technology Industry Blue Collar

Employees in Finland

31

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Mechanical engineering Metals industry Electronics and electrotechnical industry

Individuals per year

Source: Wage inquiry of the Techonology Industries of Finland, Finnish Centre for Pensions, Statistics FinlandTechnology Industries of Finland

12/28/2020

Number of individuals retiring(estimation)

Number of individuals retired

Page 32: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Overview of the Situation in the Technology

Industry and Outlook for the Rest of the Year 2020

32

- Turnover in Finland totalled some EUR 83 billion in 2019. The turnover was up 6% year-on-year. In January-September the turnover was slightly higher than last year at the same period.

- The monetary value of new orders reported between July-September 2020 was 8% higherthan in the preceding quarter, but 12% lower than in the corresponding period in 2019.

- At the end of September, the value of order books was mildly lower as at the end of June, but 4% lower than in September 2019.

- The turnover of the technology industry decline in Finland has stopped in late summer, but will be smaller towards the end of the year than at the same time a year ago.

- At the end of September, the number of employees in Finland was 1.1 per cent lower than last year's average. At the end of September, there were 309,400 employees, which is about 3,500 less than last year. Of the employees, almost 40,000 were covered by lay-off arrangements at the end of September.

- Recruitment of new staff has decreased during the corona pandemic. In July-September, there were a total of 5,500.

12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Page 33: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

World Economic Outlook

- Finland as a Part of Global Economy

3312/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Page 34: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

The Darkest GDP Projections for 2020 Have Been

Somewhat Eased

34Source: Consensus Economics

-11

-10

-9

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4GDP consensus forecasts for 2020, %

Eastern Europe

Finland

Sweden

Russia

France

Germany

Italy

Forecast period

12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Page 35: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

In the Euro Area Countries, GDP Contracted more

Sharply in April-June than in Finland

35Lähde: MacrobondTechnology Industries of Finland

12/28/2020

Page 36: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Finland Is Clearly Behind in the Growth of Exports

Relative to the Euro Countries

36Source: Macrobond, Eurostat12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Page 37: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Exports and Private Consumption Turned Finland’s

Economic Growth Negative in January-June

37Source: Macrobond, Statistics FinlandTechnology Industries of Finland

12/28/2020

Page 38: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Corona Crisis Collapsed GDP in All Countries

38Souce: MacrobondTechnology Industries of Finland

12/28/2020

Page 39: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

3912/28/2020 Lähde: Macrobond

In China, the Economy Contracted Sharply in January-March 2020, but Recovered in April-June

Technology Industries of Finland

Page 40: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Purchasing Manager Indices for the Entire

Business Sector in Finland’s Most Important

Export Countries

40Source: Macrobond. Markit12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Page 41: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

In Finland, Industrial Production Has Withstood

Better than in Competing Countries

4112/28/2020 Source: MacrobondTechnology Industries of Finland

Page 42: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

In Finland, Industrial Production Has Withstood

Better than in Most Other EU Countries

4212/28/2020 Source: MacrobondTechnology Industries of Finland

Page 43: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Industrial Production Is Already Recovering in

China and Globally

43Source: Macrobond, The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy AnalysisTechnology Industries of Finland

12/28/2020

Page 44: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Industrial Purchasing Managers' Indices Report a

Return to Growth in Many Countries

4428.12.2020 Teknologiateollisuus Lähde: Macrobond, Markit

Page 45: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Industrial Production Grew in October in All Major

Developing Countries, Except in Russia

4528.12.2020 Teknologiateollisuus Lähde: Macrobond, Markit

Page 46: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Exchange Rates (when the Curve Rises, the Value of

the Euro Strengthens Against the Other Currency)

46Source: Macrobond12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Page 47: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

47Source: Macrobond, The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

Corona Pandemic Affected World Trade by Force Goods export volume

Technology Industries of Finland

12/28/2020

Page 48: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Chinese Imports Declined in the Spring but

Rebounded During the Summer and Autumn

48Source: MacrobondTechnology Industries of Finland

12/28/2020

Page 49: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

EU Exports to Russia Are Stagnating

49Source: MacrobondTechnology Industries of Finland

12/28/2020

Page 50: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Russia’s* Share of the Technology Industry's

Finnish Exports Has Fallen to about 5 Percent

50*) Soviet Union up to 1991Source: Finnish Customs

02468

1012141618202224262830323436384042

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020(1

-9)

Technology Industries of Finland

12/28/2020

%

Page 51: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

51Source: IMF (June 2020)

The Global Economy Is Forecast to Shrink by 4.4%

in 2020, but to Grow by 5.2% in 2021GDP growth 2020/2019, %

-11

-10

-9

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

North America Japan

China

IndiaRest

of

Euro

pe

Russia

Bra

zil

Mexic

oRest

ot

Lat.

Am

erica

Mid

dle

East

and A

fric

a

Kasvu keskimäärin: -4,4 %

The width of the bar indicates the share of global GDP in 2019 (adjusted for purchasing power parity), %

Rest of Asia

Technology Industries of Finland

12/28/2020

Page 52: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

52Source: IMF (June 2020)

In the Export Market of the Technology Industry,

Demand Will Decrease by 6.5% in 2020GDP growth 2020/2019, %

-11

-10

-9

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

North America Western Europe Japan

China India

Rest

of

Euro

pe

Russia

Bra

zil M

exic

oRest

of

Lat.

Am

.M

iddle

East

and

Afr

ica

Kasvu keskimäärin: -6,5 %

The width of the bar indicates the export share of technology industry from Finland in 2019, %

RestOf Asia

Technology Industries of Finland

12/28/2020

Page 53: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Finland’s Economic Growth Relies on Exports and Investments

53Technology Industries of Finland

12/28/2020

Page 54: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Finland’s Exports Lagged behind Its Competitors

Even before the Corona Crisis

54Source: Macrobond, EurostatTechnology Industries of Finland

12/28/2020

Page 55: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

55Source: Macrobond, Eurostat

Central and Local Government Debt Was Already

High Before the Corona Crisis

Technology Industries of Finland

12/28/2020

Page 56: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Unlike the Competitor Countries, in Finland

Business Investment Is Still Below the Level in 2008

56Source: OECD, Economic Outlook (June 2020)

80859095

100105110115120125130135140145150155160165170175

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e

Corporate investments, at fixed prices, index 2005=100

USA

Sweden

Switzerland

Belgium

Germany

Finland

12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Page 57: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

5728.12.2020 Teknologiateollisuus Source: Statistics Finland (National Accounts), Statistics Finland (Research and Development), EK Investment Survey (June 2020)

Investment Rate in the Technology Industry in

Finland Fell after the Financial CrisisTangible and intangible investments in Finland

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e

Tangible investments Intangible investments Investment rate, tangible

Investment rate, intangible Investment rate, combined

Investments, million euros, at current prices

Investment rate (investments / value added), %

Page 58: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Industrial Tangible and Intangible Investment* in

Finland Have Not Yet Reached the 2007-2008 Levels

58*) Including software investments.Source: Statistics Finland (National Accounts), Confederation of Finnish Industries’ Investment Survey June 2020

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e

Tangible investment

Intangible investment

Intangible investment (excl.

electronics industry)

Billion euros, at fixed 2015 prices

12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Page 59: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Total Industrial Investment in Finland Is Now at

Around the Level of Capital Consumption

59*) Including software investments.Source: Statistics Finland (National Accounts), Confederation of Finnish Industries’ Investment Survey June 2020

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e

Tangible and intangibleinvestment*

Consumption of FixedCapital

Billion euros, at fixed 2015 prices

12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Page 60: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Tangible Investments by Industry in Finland Are

Now at the Level of the Consumption of Capital

60Source: Statistics Finland (National Accounts), Confederation of Finnish Industries’ Investment Survey June 2020

0

1

2

3

4

5

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e

Tangible investment

Consumption of tangiblecapital

Billion euros, at fixed 2015 prices

12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Page 61: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Industrial Production Capital in Finland Has

Disappeared Significantly, Especially after 2008

61Information on consumption of tangible capital is at 2010 prices.Source: Statistics Finland (National Accounts)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Cumulative consumptionof tangible capital

Cumulative tangibleinvestment

Billion euros, at fixed 2015 prices

12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

=6,4 bill. €

Page 62: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Industrial Tangible Investment Growth in Finland

Has Lagged behind that of Competitors

62Source: Eurostat (National Accounts), Confederation of Finnish Industries’ investment survey, January 2020

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180Hungary

Poland

Netherlands

Austria

Germany

CzechRepublic

Sweden

Belgium

Finland

Billion euros, at fixed 2015 prices, index 2005=100

12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Page 63: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Investment Rate in Industrial Tangible

Investments Is at a Low Level in Finland

63Source: Eurostat (National Accounts)

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Hungary

Poland

Netherlands

Austria

Germany

CzechRepublic

Sweden

Belgium

Finland

Tangible investments / value added, %

12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Page 64: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Industrial Intangible Investments * in Finland

Have almost Halved since 2005

64*) Intangible investments include research and development and software investments etc.Source: Eurostat (National Accounts), Confederation of Finnish Industries’ investment survey, January 2020

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e

Hungary

Poland

Netherlands

Austria

Germany

Czech Republic

Sweden

Belgium

Finland, excl.

electronics industryFinland

Billion euros, at fixed 2015 prices, index 2005=100

12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Page 65: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Investment Rate of Industrial Intangible

Investments* Has Dropped Significantly in Finland

65*) Intangible investments include research and development and software investments.Source: Eurostat (National Accounts)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Hungary

Poland

Netherlands

Austria

Germany

Czech Republic

Sweden

Belgium

Finland, excl.

electronics industryFinland

Intangible investments / value added, %

12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Page 66: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Investments and productivity* are Decisive for

Finland’s Success

6612/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

*) Productivity is measured as real value added per hours worked. When productivity grows (the curve rises) value added grows more than hours worked.Source: Statistics Finland

Page 67: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

67Latest information April-June 2020.Source: Eurostat: Quarterly National Accounts

Finland’s GDP Productivity Has Lagged Behind Other EU and Euro Countries GDP at fixed prices / hours worked

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

Euro countries

Sweden

Finland

Germany

Index 2008=100 (the year before the collapse of Finnish industrial production capacity)

12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Page 68: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

68Latest information April-June 2020.Source: Eurostat: Quarterly National Accounts

In Industrial Productivity, Finland Is Still Behind

the EU and Eurozone AverageIndustrial value added at fixed prices / hours worked

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

Euro countries

Sweden

Finland

Germany

2008=100 (the year before the collapse of Finnish industrial production capacity)

12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Page 69: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

69Lates information April-June 2020.Source: Eurostat

The Investment Rate of Companies in Finland Is

Clearly Lower than the EU Average

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

Sweden

Autsria

Belgium

Denmark

Finland

Corporate fixed investment compared to value added, % (excl. financial sector)

12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Page 70: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

70

There Is Still Room for Improvement in Finland’s

Cost CompetitivenessUnit labour costs in the whole economy = labour costs / productivity, including the influence of effective exchange rates

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

2000=100

2005=100

2008=100

Finland’s price and cost competitiveness declines

Finland’s priceand costcompetitivenessimproves

12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

*) In the ECB Harmonised Competitiveness Index, the average effective exchange rate of each country is calculated vis-à-vis 38 main trade partners, as well as the development of unit labour costs for the total economy.Latest information April-June 2020. Source: European Central Bank

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Page 71: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Member Companies of the Federation of Finnish Technology Industries

7112/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Page 72: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

The Federation’s Member Companies 2019

72

250–499 employees

72 75538 %

32 55417 %

27 55514 %

59 43531 %

1 44990.1%

865.7%

382.5% 24

1.8%

Number of enterprises / 1,608 Number of personnel / 192,299

1–249 employees 500–999 employees

1000– employees

Technology Industries of Finland

12/28/2020

Page 73: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

The Federation’s SME Member Companies 2019

73

48233.3%

483 31.5%

28819.8%

20914.4%

Number of enterprises / 1,449 Number of personnel / 72,755

5 1407.1%

15 83221.8%

20 09227.6%

31 69143.5%

1–19 employees

20–49 employees

50–99 employees

100–249 employees

12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Page 74: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Operating Profit in the Member Companies of Technology Industries of Finland in 2019Operating profit-% = operating result / turnover * 100 (before taxes and financial income and expenses)

74Source: Statistics Finland

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30(Median: 4.6%)

Good (26%)

Satisfactory (23%)

Weak (29 %)

Unprofitable(21 %)

12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Companies in random order

Page 75: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Net Profit in the Member Companies of Technology Industries of Finland in 2019Net profit -% = net profit / turnover * 100 (after tax and financial income and expenses)

75

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30(Median: 3.9%)

Unprofitable (24%)

Good (21%)

Satisfactory (21%)

Weak (34%)

Source: Statistics Finland12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Companies in random order

Page 76: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Return on Assets in the Member Companies of Technology Industries of Finland in 2019Return on assets -% = (net income + financial expenses + taxes) / (capital invested in the financial year) * 100

76

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30(Median: 11.0%)

Good (42%)

Satisfactory (11%)

Mediocre (28%)

Weak (19%)

Companies in random order

Source: Statistics Finland12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland

Page 77: Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook · 2 days ago · Technology Industry / Finnish Economic Outlook December 2020 Jukka Palokangas Principal Economist jukka.palokangas@techfind.fi

Equity Ratio in the Member Companies of Technology Industries of Finland in 2019Equity ratio -% = (total equity + total appropriations accrued) / adjusted balance sheet * 100

77

05

101520253035404550556065707580859095

100(Median: 42.6%)

Good (53%)

Satisfactory (24%)

Weak (23%)

Companies in random order

Source: Statistics Finland12/28/2020 Technology Industries of Finland