Technology Drivers and Challenges in a Growing More-than ... · Global MTM Fab Capacity Forecast...
Transcript of Technology Drivers and Challenges in a Growing More-than ... · Global MTM Fab Capacity Forecast...
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Technology Drivers and Challenges in a Growing More-than-Moore Market Place
John C Cummings.,
Managing Director
200mm EPG Sales, Operations & Business Development
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Outline
Introduction To Applied Materials
XXXXX
Conclusion / Discussion
Semiconductor Market Outlook
MtM Equipment Product Group
≤200mm Equipment Manufacturing
Core Availability and Tool Pricing Trends
Conclusion / Discussion
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Semicon Europa 2018 - External Use
AMAT stock
listing on
NASDAQ
$14.5 billionrevenue
Headquartered
in California’s
Silicon Valley
~18,400 employees
90 locations
In 17 countries
semiconductor and display equipment company
World’s #1
>11,900patents
$1.8 billionR&D spending
Data as of fiscal year end, October 29, 2017
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Applied Global ServicesComprehensive Services, Consulting, Equipment, Automation Software
FAB SERVICES
• Supporting
>33,000 tools
• >3,000 field engineers
• Innovative, flexible
and technology-based
service solutions
EQUIPMENT
• 200mm semi
• Fab environmental
solutions
• Dedicated R&D
for emerging
technology
• Technology and
productivity upgrades
• Legacy solar
and display
SOFTWARE
• Performance
improvement systems
• Manufacturing
execution
systems (MES)
• Equipment and process
control systems
• Material control systems
COMPONENTS
• Certified Parts
• Flexible spares
delivery programs
• High performance
part options
• Advanced coatings
and cleaning
FABVANTAGE
• FabVantage
benchmarking
• Tool output
and cost
• Yield and predictability
• Fab productivity
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Industry is ChangingGrowth + Increased Stability
2000 2010 2016
PC + Internet
Mobile + Social Media
Visual Computing +Artificial IntelligenceVR / ARIoTBig DataAI / Machine learningSmart vehiclesPersonalized medicineAdditive manufacturing
Av. WFE = $25.5B*
σ = $8.0B
Av. WFE = $31.7B**
σ = $2.7B* 2000 - 2009 ** 2010 – 2016F
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Smartphones$121B, 3%
Automotive$43B, 10%
PC$34B, 1%
Tablets$10B, -3%
Consumer Electronics$47B, 4%
Industrial$47B, 10%
Storage$31B, 12%
Server$47B, 9%
$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
Mkt Size ($B)
CAGR (%)
2018 End Markets - Market Size ($B), CAGR (%) 2017-2022
$479B, 5%
Source: Gartner Semiconductor Forecast Worldwide Revenue- by Semiconductor Device (June
► Smart Phone: Chip content increase - driving both new technologies and capacity adds
► Automotive: ADAS, Electrification, Telematics (4G/5G), Infotainment are key factors
► Datacenter/Server: IoT / Increased ‘Cloud’ and ‘AI’ presence - onset of photonic technology inflection
► Communication Infrastructure: 4G/5G transition and 5G preparation at Base Station, Handset and Repeater
► Industrial: Industry 4.0, Building Automation and Control, Robotics & Drones for industrial applications
► Consumer: IoT, Wireless Charging, Virtual & Augmented Reality (VR/AR), Artificial Intelligence (AI), Drones & Robotics,
Semiconductor Market Outlook
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Mega Trends and Key Market Drivers7
4G / 5G Communications
AR / VR / Facial RecognitionInternet-of-Things
Adv. Automotive
Smartphone
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3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
180
190
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(k wspm)Fab Count
Source: Global 200mm Fab Outlook, June 2018, SEMI
200mm Fab Count and Capacity
Capacity Count
Semiconductor Market Outlook
(600,000 wspm Incr. Through 2022) CAGR ~ 2.35%(2015-2022)
188k
194k
195k200k
204k203k
203k
Years
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Global MTM Fab Capacity Forecast
1,319 1,307 1,298 1,117 1,127 1,130
4,171 4,415 4,530 4,633 4,724 4,805
629731 802 852 896 915
6,683 6,907
2021
6,654
2020
57
2019
6,1716,505
20182017
52
2016
5752 52 52
6,804+736 Kwspm
*Not Including Wafer makers and Packaging house
300mm 200mm 150mm <150mm
MTM capacity projected to grow by ~740Kwspm between 2016 and 2021
(Kwspm)
Source: EPG Marketing, 2017
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Average 200mm Utilization% by Device FY16 - FY18
86%86%85%86%85%87%87%85%83%83%80%81%
Q1’16 Q2’16 Q3’16 Q1’17Q4’16 Q4’17Q2’17 Q4’18Q3’17 Q1’18 Q2’18 Q3’18
+6%
69%69%69%69%69%65%65%
58%58%58%58%58%
Q3’16Q1’16 Q4’17Q2’16 Q4’16 Q2’17Q1’17 Q3’17 Q4’18Q1’18 Q2’18 Q3’18
+19%87%86%85%84%82%80%80%82%80%
76%75%72%
Q4’17Q1’16 Q2’17Q2’16 Q3’16 Q4’16 Q1’17 Q3’17 Q1’18 Q2’18 Q3’18 Q4’18
+15%
86%86%86%86%85%85%85%85%82%82%84%83%
Q1’17Q2’16 Q4’16 Q1’18Q1’16 Q3’16 Q4’17Q2’17 Q3’17 Q2’18 Q3’18 Q4’18
+4% 93%93%93%92%90%87%
85%84%83%81%81%80%
Q3’16Q1’16 Q1’17Q2’16 Q4’16 Q2’17 Q3’17 Q4’17 Q1’18 Q2’18 Q3’18 Q4’18
+15%
92%92%92%91%90%88%87%88%88%86%86%84%
Q2’17Q1’17Q1’16 Q2’16 Q4’17Q3’16 Q4’16 Q3’17 Q1’18 Q2’18 Q3’18 Q4’18
+8%
Foundry MEMS Power
Analog CIS CMOS
Source: EPG Marketing, 2018
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Enabling MtM Technologies▪ Smartphone / Tablet, Automotive and Wearable will drive new technology requirement for the
next 5+ years – with a number of select devices migrating to 300mm
Automotive
(Body, Engine, Infotainment, ADAS)
Wearables
(Fitness, Garments)Smartphones & Tablets
End Use Application(s) Segments with >70% 200mm
Content
Key inflections in high growth application segments drive requirements for new materials, packaging and CMOS integration
Adv. CMOS Compatible Films(PECVD SiGe for MEMS)
Ultra Uniform AlN Films(MEMS RF Filters)
Adv. Epi Technologies(Power Switching)
Adv. Etch Solutions(Packaging, Power)
Adv. Metal Deposition(Power Technologies)
Endura Centura / Producer CVD
Centura Epi Centura DPS DTM Endura
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Broad Range of MTM Materials & Process Technologies
Key inflections in high growth application segments on ≤200mm wafer sizes drive requirements for new Materials, Process, Packaging technologies
Adv. CMOS Compatible Films(PECVD SiGe for MEMS)
AlN / ScAlN Films(Multiple MEMS Applications)
Adv. Epi Technologies(Power Switching)
Adv. Etch Solutions(Packaging, Power)
Thick Aluminum Deposition(Power Technologies)
Thick / Neutral Stress / Low Temp / Conformal Dielectrics(Multiple Applications)
Electrodeposition Technologies(Multiple Applications)
Complete TSV Processing (Broad Range of ARs)
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≤200mm Product Demo & DevelopmentXi’an, China based Customer Demo and Product Development Facility
c-Si/TF Solar
Labs
AGS Semi Lab
12 KW TF Solar
Array
B1
B2
AGS Training
Center
56KW c-Si Solar
Array
LED LabScreen Printer
Mfg
Located in Xi’an China
▪ Complimenting 200mm tools in California, Xi’an is the main 200mm development and demo facility
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≤200mm Equipment Portfolio
ImplantE220/500
VIISion 80/200
ViiSta
Proton
MEHD2
ThermalCentura®
RTP
Epi RP+
Pronto HGR Epi
LPCVD
Gate
Inspection &
MetrologySEMVision
Complus
VeritySEM
PVDEndura®
HDR Al
Soliton
Al (Slab/Fill)
Liner/Barrier
iLB
CuBS
ALPS Al / Co
CleanW™
SIP TTN
CVDCentura
Producer
DxZ Silane
DxZ TEOS
DxZ SACVD
Gigafill SACVD
Ultima+ HDP
WxZ and WEB
EtchCentura
MxP®
Super-E
Metal/Poly DPS+
ASP+
eMAX
DTM
Altum
CMPMirra®
Mirra Mesa
Oxide
Tungsten
STI / Poly
Copper
PlatingRaider®
Nokota®
Blazer
Bump/Pillar/RDL
TSV
Interconnect ECD
Cleans
Supporting the MTM evolution with innovative platform & process technologies
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Ch
amb
er
Tech
no
logy
Key Market Opportunities based on Technology InflectionsD
evic
e
Ap
plic
atio
nO
n W
afe
r Te
chn
olo
gy
Soliton™ Pronto™ HDR Al™ Etch NG
Fingerprint Sensor RF Filter
Next Gen Microphone IGBT / SJMPower Device
EPI WafersPower / MEMS
Film Opportunities (AlN / ScAlN / PZT)
Film Opportunities (RP Fill / ATM Blanket)
Film Opportunities (≤12µm AlCu / AlSi)
Process Opportunities (Critical Etch For MEMS)
High Power MOSFETsNext Generation
MEMS Gyroscopes
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200mm / 300mm Transition Technologies
▪ The 200mm/300mm transition will occur in MTM on an opportunistic basis, likely under the
following considerations:
➢ Volume / ASP Pressure ➢ Available BW On Depreciated 300mm Line
➢ More Sophisticated ASIC ➢ Opportunity For Disruption (ASP/ Technology)
➢ WLCSP Required ➢ Technology Existing Or Easily Ported To 300mm
▪ Examples from the MEMS segment may include:
Gyro – ASIC / WLCSP AlN / ScAlN Based Devices Disruptive Technologies
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`
Enabling Green Compliance with Fab Environmental Solutions
iSystem™
▪ Subfab resources conservation
▪ Automated safety management
▪ Central monitoring and reporting platform
Aeris™-G
▪ Highest DRE in the industry
▪ Zero footprint for easy retrofits
▪ Low power and zero fossil fuel consumption
Aeris™-S
Intelligent software to optimize subfab resource management
GHG zero footprint plasma abatement system
Process effluents safety and solid waste plasma treatment
▪ Designed to treat dirtiest applications
▪ Extend chamber exhaust and component MTBF
▪ Improve worker safety
New! Aeris™-Si
Clean Gas injection for foreline safety and solids management
▪ Proven particle management for High Flow TEOS applications
▪ Extend pump life and time between foreline PMs
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Obsolescence - Extending 200mm Equipment Life
Producer®Mirra®
/ Mirra Mesa®
ComPLUS™ Endura®Centura®
Faster processing80X
Greater data rate1000X
More data storage100X
More computational bandwidth100X
Available for all platforms shown
Applied Vita Controller
for 200mm
Systems
TM
Full backward compatibility with existing software versions and customer recipes
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7 EPG Manufacturing Locations
Austin:
≤200mm (New & Refurb)
- CMP
- CVD
- Etch
- PVD
- FEP
FES/SubFab (New)Israel:
200mm - Legacy PDC (Refurb)
Gloucester:
200mm- Varian Implant (Refurb)
Oregon:
Mask – Alta (New)
Japan, Kawasaki:
Mask – Sigmameltec (New)
Japan, Saitama:
Mask – Holon (New)
Korea
Vericell (New)
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EPG MtM System Manufacturing – Austin, TX
• Dedicated team >250 employees (average experience >17 years)
• New and Used system manufacturing >80,000 sq ft. of manufacturing and warehouse
20Test Bays (full final test)
New System builds
Refurbishment, customer core refurbishment & trade in
In-house chamber and module builds
Capacity greater than 40 tools / quarter
• Manufacturing services for all Applied Materials product lines Endura (PVD)
Centura (Thermal, Etch, CVD)
Producer (CVD)
Mirra Mesa (CMP)
• Supply chain and direct materials management
• Obsolescence Protection
• Field startup and on-site support expertise
20
Build Material
New – Used – Core Material pull
to the Mfg. floor via Discrete Jobs
Common Module Build
Overview of AMAT 200mm
Manufacturing Refurbish Process
Gasline Weld Shop
Module Test
System Integration
All modules integrated to
mainframe
Process starts with Core
Project Review in Core Room
Core Disassemble
Used System is torn down to
module level
Gas Panel Build
Module BreAK DownAll chambers/modules broken down to piece
part level and sent for cleaning and restored
to like new condition
Mainframe Build
Chamber Build
Full Integrated Final Test
Customer Prep
Tool is prep for
shipment
Applied
Materials
System
is crated
and
shipped Module Build
Cycle
(All modules are
bay built in
parallel)
Remote Build
1
2
3
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Improved ManufacturingFlexible Manufacturing Initiatives
▪ Streamlining manufacturing processes
►Pre-staging common modules to shorten manufacturing cycle time
► Increasing in-coming functional test of cores to reduce module build times
► Internal subassembly test capability for key OEM components
▪ Maintaining significant core inventory via continuous market tracking
►Purchasing high quality cores to reduce rework requirements
►Targeting high demand configurations for improved lead-time
▪ Moving from “build to order” to “forecast” model on long lead items
►Performing full tool audits and system configurator updates
►Enhancing forecast quality to reduce procurement lead time
Enabling shorter lead time, better quality and more flexibility
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
# o
f Sy
ste
ms
Revenue Quarter
Core Refurb vs. New Mainframe Builds
NewMainframeBuilds
Core Refurb
% of NewMainframeBuilds
Austin Tool Build ActivityQ
1'1
2
Q2
'12
Q3
'12
Q4
'12
Q1
'13
Q2
'13
Q3
'13
Q4
'13
Q1
'14
Q2
'14
Q3
'14
Q4
'14
Q1
'15
Q2
'15
Q3
'15
Q4
'15
Q1
'16
Q2
'16
Q3
'16
Q4
'16
Q1
'17
Pro
j
Nu
mb
er
of
Ite
ms
Quarter
200mm Core Quarterly ActivityCores OUT
Cores IN
Net OpenMarket Items
$k
De
lta
fro
m Q
1'1
4
Quarter
150/200mm Core Market Price Increase
Mirra Stand Alone
Producer Split
Centura DxZ
CII DPS+ Metal Etch
CII Oxide Etch
TPCC Xe+ (3 CH)
Endura iLB
Endura PVD / Al
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Nu
mb
er
of
Co
res
Annual Core ActivityCores OUT
Cores IN
Net OpenMarketItems
AverageCore Cost
Source: Applied ≤200mm Manufacturing Ops, 2017
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Lead Time Performance Summary
Rela
tive
Sys
tem
s S
hip
pe
d
Le
ad
Tim
e
Sustained lead time performance through production ramp with manufacturing efficiency
improvements, supply chain and manufacturing investments. Lead time challenges
expected to continue in FY18 under a constrained core market.
Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18
System Lead Time
Source: Applied ≤200mm Manufacturing Ops, 2017
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Conclusion
Applied Materials Supports MtM Device Technologies by:
▪ Continued R&D on ≤200mm MEMS, Power, Analog, CIS, Packaging & CMOS
technologies and their translation to 300mm capable platform and chamber products;
▪ Working with leading R&D organizations to ensure our film and process
technologies are demonstrated at the device level
▪ Constantly looking for new ways to grow our portfolio of advanced tools, materials,
and processes—we're eager to collaborate with you!
Applied Materials—Your OEM Partner in Continuous ≤200mm and 300mm Technology Development
25
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