Technological progress and capacity estimations - Management implications for the Danish cod trawl...
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Transcript of Technological progress and capacity estimations - Management implications for the Danish cod trawl...
Technological progress and capacity estimations
- Management implications for the Danish cod trawl fishery
Erik Lindebo, SJFI
Copenhagen, Denmark
• Capacity management
• Baltic cod fishery• Baltic cod fleet• Investment & tech. progress
• Analysis: Dataset• Analysis: Technological progress• Analysis: DEA capacity estimates
• Limitations • Management implications
• MAGPs 1983 to present• 1990’s – Danish fleet reduced by over ¼ (GT, kW)• Strict policy and limited fleet renewal• 2000-01 expansion allowed under current MAGP targets 23% (GT) and 26% (kW) 19% (GT) and 29% (kW) for trawl segment
Capacity management
• Tech. progress allows: Increase production level given effort or Maintain production level whilst reducing effort
• International estimates of 2-3% per annum
• Paper partly based on EU study (UK, France, Holland and DK) “The impact of technological progress on fishing effort”
• Danish cod trawl fishery in the Baltic Sea
Impact of technological progress
Baltic Sea
Sweden
Norway
Finland
Denmark
Germany Poland
Russia
Bornholm
Lithuania
Latvia
Estonia
• Cod fishery is the most valuable in Denmark • Fine balance between human and environmental factors• Winter months – high season• Eastern and Western cod stocks• ICES recommends reduction in fishing mortality• 1980-90’s has seen a boom-and-bust period• Problems expect to intensify due to stock problems in North Sea
Baltic cod fishery
Volume/value of cod landings, 1987-99
05.000
10.00015.00020.00025.00030.00035.00040.00045.000
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Volu
me
(to
nn
es)
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
Val
ue
(100
0 D
KK
)
Volume of cod landings Value of cod landings
• Trawling vessels dominate• Mobile fleet with variable strategies• Influx of larger vessels from North Sea during boom period• Later years – smaller, flexible vessels have dominated• Managed by quota rations, mesh sizes, closed seasons etc.
Baltic cod fleet
• Tightening of capacity-enhancing project investments• Renovations, electronics, fish handling, engines, safety equip.• Limited incentives since cod decline in 1992-93
• Qualitatively analysed through industry interviews and literature
Investments & tech. progress
Progress of cod trawling fleet, 1987-99
------------------------ Perceived impact ------------------------
Innovations/issues
Change 1987-99 Increased
landings Cost
reduction Product Quality Safety
Hull - size/shape, layout, construction Limited - + - ++
Engine - power, configuration, aux. engines, propeller Yes ++ ++ - -
Fishing gear - trawl size/construction, lines/warps, drums, winches/haulers Yes ++ ++ + +
Electronics - fish finder, net sensor, autopilot/GPS/radar, communication, computer Yes + ++ - ++
Processing & storage - gutting/filleting, chilling/ storing Limited - + ++ +
Markets Limited - - + -
Quota regulations Yes - - - -
Note: (++) significant positive impact, (+) positive impact, (-) no impact or negative impact
• 23 trawlers actively fishing Baltic cod (sub-fleet)• February, 1987-99• Made specific to enable the use of cod stock (SSB) information• Directorate of Fisheries data variables such as:
Landing data (cod/other), days at sea, landing declarations, GT, kW, length, age, insurance value, homeport, fishing gear, SSB (two stocks), tech. progress dummy
Analysis: Dataset
• Undertaken by Jim Kirkley and Cathy Morrison • Standard economic analytical procedure (technical change)
• Sub-fleet production was –3% per annum• Sub-fleet CPUE declined over the period• Insurance value is representative of progress • Vessels varied in extent of contribution to overall tech. progress • Sub-fleet tech. progress of 1.8% per annum
Analysis: Technological progress
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
19
87
-88
19
88
-89
19
89
-90
19
90
-91
19
91
-92
19
92
-93
19
93
-94
19
94
-95
19
95
-96
19
96
-97
19
97
-98
19
98
-99
Ye
ar
to Y
ea
r/M
ea
n
0
5
10
15
20
25
Cu
mu
lati
ve
Year to Year Mean 87-93 Mean 94-99 Cumulative
Technological change for trawling sub-fleet, 1987-99
• Mathematical linear programming technique, estimating the relative efficiency of vessels• Potential capacity output given inputs• Capacity utilisation (CU)……see Table 5 on page 17
• Vessel CU range 0.52-0.92 (1987-99 average) • Sub-fleet CU 0.73 (1987-99 average)• CU scores are worse in later years
• Bornholm have fewer problems with capacity• Vessels with lowest CU show greater tech. progress
Analysis: DEA capacity estimates
• Results for 23 vessels cannot be aggregated to fleet level • No annual data to take account of flexible fishing strategies and objectives of investments• No distinction between cod and other fish landings • Impact of management regulations (quota rations) will determine investment incentives and capacity utilisation
• DEA analysis Revenue-based approach Larger vessel sample with annual data
• Tentative results due to vessel-specific and seasonal data
Limitations
• Vessels with high tech. progress have low CU increased potential has not been realised due to restricted quota rations• Better CU for Bornholm vessels
• Technological progress – not uniform over time and driven by fisher incentives (stock status)
• Capacity problems in analysed fleet • Fishing industry acknowledges that there is overcapacity possible capacity expansion under MAGPs (trawl segment)?
Question validity and objectives of MAGP targets
Management implications
Grazie