Techno-economic Assessment Methodology and Results to post.pdfTechno-economic Assessment Methodology...
Transcript of Techno-economic Assessment Methodology and Results to post.pdfTechno-economic Assessment Methodology...
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Techno-economic Assessment Methodology and ResultsJason Quinn
Department of Mechanical Engineering
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ENERGY INSTITUTE2
Acknowledgements
• Benjamin Vegel
• Department of Energy Funding #: DE-EE0007562
• Meeting organizers
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ENERGY INSTITUTE3
General Approach
Sustainability Modeling
Economic Viability-TEA
Environmental Impact-LCA/RA
Experimental Systems
Knowledge Gaps
Model Validation
Feasibility Demonstration
System Performance
System Modeling
Modular in Construction High Fidelity Large Scale
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ENERGY INSTITUTE4
Technology SpaceEnergy FoodMicroalgal Biosystem
Yeast BiosystemsNuclear Power Systems
WPT for Transportation Desert Agriculture
Water Systems
Power System Optimization
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ENERGY INSTITUTE5
Techno-economic Methodsnth Plant Assumptions
Description Assumed ValueInternal rate of return 10%
Financing debt / equity 60% / 40% of total capital investmentPlant life 30 years
Income tax rate 35%Debt interest rate 8% annually
Term for debt financing 10 yearsWorking capital cost 5.0% of fixed capital investment (w/o land)
Depreciation schedule 7-years MACRSConstruction period 3 years (8% 1st yr, 60% 2nd yr, 32% 3rd yr)Plant salvage value No value
Start-up time 6 months
Revenue and costs during start-up
Revenue = 50% of normal Variable costs = 75% of normal Fixed costs = 100% of normal
On-stream factor 90% (330 operating days per year)Indirect capital costs 60% of total installed downstream capital
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ENERGY INSTITUTE6
CAPX – OPX Tradeoff
• Correlation between CAPX, OPX, and yearly revenue:
𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵 𝑅𝑅𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝑅𝑅𝐵𝐵$𝑦𝑦𝐵𝐵
≈ 0.140 ∗ 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 $ + 1 + 1.44% ∗ 𝑂𝑂𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶$𝑦𝑦𝐵𝐵
Fuel + Co-products
+ Credits
Weight of Capital:IRR, depreciation, loan interest, etc
From Year 1 start-up
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ENERGY INSTITUTE7
CAPX – OPX Tradeoff
• Tradeoff of $7.3 CAPX ≈ $1 yr-1 OPX• Ratio depends on CAPX term
– Weight of upfront vs. recurring costs
– Especially IRR
𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵 𝑅𝑅𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝑅𝑅𝐵𝐵$𝑦𝑦𝐵𝐵
≈ 0.140 ∗ 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 $ + 1 + 1.44% ∗ 𝑂𝑂𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶$𝑦𝑦𝐵𝐵
nth
plant
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ENERGY INSTITUTE8
Impact of Methodology: Biofuel ExampleGovernment subsidies Depreciations Schemes
Loan Scenarios
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ENERGY INSTITUTE9
Techno-economic RequirementsThree Core Components
Overnight Capital Cost Operational Cost Annual Output & Products
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ENERGY INSTITUTE10
Techno-Economic Assessment
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Coal NaturalGas
CoalCCS
NaturalGas CCS
PV CSP Nuclear Wind
Leve
lized
Cos
t of E
nerg
y ($
2020
kW
h-1)
Social Cost 3%-95thSocial Cost 2.5%Social Cost 3%Social Cost 5%Standard TEA
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ENERGY INSTITUTE11
Capital Cost EstimationExisting estimates for LR
Materials estimates Cost estimatesCapital Cost
Top-down Method
Bottom-up Method
Scaling factorsLearning curves
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ENERGY INSTITUTE12
Top Down: Capital Estimation$5,460 kWe -1
LR input
Top-down: scaling factorsComponent n
Building 0.5
Spent fuel management 1
Instrumentation and control 0.6
Other, electric 0.6
Other, direct 0.3
Contingency 0.55
Owner’s costs 0.29
Reactor pressure vessel 1
Control rods 1
Steam generation 1
Chemical volume controls 0.667
Other, reactor 0.6
Containment 0.667
Condenser 0.72
Turbo-generator 0.8
Special equipment 0.4
Conventional indirect 0.75
Engineering 0.2
Nuclear indirect 0.5
Learning curveFactory production
Factory production integration
Construction from 6-9 years to ~3 years
Reduced contingency
Reactor
Generatorcomponents
Construction
Other
Co-siting benefitsSharing of componentsUpfront
decrease SMR costsincrease SMR costs
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ENERGY INSTITUTE13
Top-down capital costs $5,576 kWe -1
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ENERGY INSTITUTE14
Factory facility cost addition
Input Parameters
Factory capital ($/ft2) $200-$500
SMR dimensions 89’ by 32’
Space increase factor 2x-5x
Reactor orders 58
Generator space increase Up to 50%
Build time 2 years
Cost distribution over units 20 years
Facility capacity 6 unitsBaseline model: median value
• 3 cost and space scenarios
• Costs are allocated across reactors (based on demand)
$19.42 kWe-1
$5.52 kWe-1
$44.64 kWe-1
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ENERGY INSTITUTE15
Capital Cost EstimationExisting estimates for LR
Materials estimates Cost estimatesCapital Cost
Top-down Method
Bottom-up Method
Scaling factorsLearning curves
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ENERGY INSTITUTE16
Bottom Up CostingComponent n
Building 0.5
Spent fuel management 1
Instrumentation and control 0.6
Other, electric 0.6
Other, direct 0.3
Contingency 0.55
Owner’s costs 0.29
Reactor pressure vessel 1
Control rods 1
Steam generation 1
Chemical volume controls 0.667
Other, reactor 0.6
Containment 0.667
Condenser 0.72
Turbo-generator 0.8
Special equipment 0.4
Conventional indirect 0.75
Engineering 0.2
Nuclear indirect 0.5
Concrete (Gen IV):76.3 m^3/MWe
Materials: GT-MHR (helium Gen . IV)
Structure TypeMaterial Cost
($/m^3) Concrete (m^3) Concrete (m^3/MWe)
Reactor pressure vessel Substructure Nuclear 18000 62.94
Steam generation Superstructure Nuclear 0 0.00
Other, reactor Substructure Nuclear 0 0.00
Containment Superstructure Nuclear 1973 6.90
Conventional building Substructure Non-nuclear 1586 5.55
Other, electical Substructure Non-nuclear 188 0.66
Other, direct Substructure Non-nuclear 68 0.24
252.81
252.81
252.81
252.81
168.43
168.43
168.43
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ENERGY INSTITUTE17
Bottom up costing
$M
$200M
$400M
$600M
$800M
$1000M
$1200M
GT-MHR Gen IV
Contingency
Owner's costs
Indirect
Factory capital
Other, direct
Other, electical
Conventional Building
Containment
Other, reactor
Steam generation
Reactor pressure vessel
non-nuclear
nuclear
$3,697 kWe -1
cost input
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ENERGY INSTITUTE18
Operational Costing$17.38 MWh -1 $9.10 MWh -1
fueling$2,896 MWt -1
annual regulatory fee sliding scale (max $5,223,000)
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ENERGY INSTITUTE19
Techno-economics Analysis
$M
$50M
$100M
$150M
$200M
$250M
$300M
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233
Income taxRegulatory feesFuelingOperationalLoan interest Loan principal Fixed capitalElectricity sales
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ENERGY INSTITUTE20
Levelized Cost of ElectricityLCOE Gen III+
$91.80 MWh-1 LCOE (30 years)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Reactor
Income taxRegulatory feesFuelingOperationalLoan interest Loan principal Fixed capital
LCOE Gen IV
$49.43 MWh-1 LCOE (30 years)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Reactor
Income tax
Regulatory fees
Fueling
Operational
Loan interest
Loan principal
Fixed capital
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ENERGY INSTITUTE21
Direct Comparison
Perc
enta
ge o
f LCO
E Operation
Capital
Income tax
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ENERGY INSTITUTE22
The Value
• Existing modeling work in place• Identify strategic targets based on economic metrics• Evaluate the impact of technological changes• Non-dilutive addition
Sustainability Modeling
Economic Viability-TEA
Environmental Impact-LCA/RA
System Modeling
Modular in Construction High Fidelity Large Scale