Technical Session I: Intro to the CSES - University of Exeter · Technical Session I: Intro to the...
Transcript of Technical Session I: Intro to the CSES - University of Exeter · Technical Session I: Intro to the...
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Challenges & Opportunities in Cross-National Electoral
Research
Technical Session I: Intro to the CSES
Jessica FortinGESIS - Leibniz-Institut für Sozialwissenschaften
Jill WittrockUniversity of [email protected]
Essex Summer School, 31st July 2010
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Topics for today
• Brief overview of CSES
• Substantive themes
• Downloading data
• The datasets: an introduction
• Additional documentation
• This afternoon: sample weights
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What is the CSES?
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The CSES Project in Brief
• A CSES Module is a 10-15 minute respondent questionnaire with a specific substantive theme
• The CSES Module is included in national post-election surveys around the world
• The data from all countries are merged into a single CSES dataset
• Each Module last approximately five years
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Three Goals
• How social, political, economic, institutional contexts shape belief and behaviors, affecting the nature and quality of democratic choice
• To understand the nature of political and social cleavages and alignments
• How do citizens evaluate democratic institutions and practices?
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How to Reach the Three Goals
The CSES is composed of three tightly linked parts:
1.A common module of public opinion survey questions is included in each participant country's post-election study.
2.Second, district level data are reported for each respondent, including electoral returns, turnout, and the number of candidates.
3.Third, system or macro level data report aggregate electoral returns, electoral rules and formulas, and regime characteristics.
This design allows researchers to conduct cross-level, as well as cross-national analyses
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Substantive Themes
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Module 1 (1996-2001)
System Performance
• Constitutional and institutional effects on democratic performance
• The social underpinnings of party systems
• Attitudes to parties, political institutions, and the democratic process
• 39 Elections in 33 countries
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Module 2 (2001-2006)
Accountability and representation
• Do elections make governments accountable, are citizens’ views represented?
• Political participation and turnout
• Institutions and contexts in new democracies
• 41 elections in 38 countries
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Module 3 (2006-2011)
Electoral Choices• Established democracies
−How satisfaction varies with choices
−How and why new parties are formed
• New democracies
− Electoral system design and political stability
• Consequences of limited choices?
−Turnout, new parties, disorder, threats to democracy?
• Advanced release March 2010: 14 countries
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An example: Karp & Banducci (2008)
RQ: How does the election of women candidates in national
legislatures influence political engagement & efficacy of women?
DVs: political engagement, campaign activity
Key IV: % women in parliament
Data: Module 2, 35 countries
Results: women not mobilized by women reps, but % women
in parliament correlates with + evals of quality dem process
Karp, Jeffrey A. and Susan A. Banducci (2008). “When politics is not just a man’s game: Women’s representation and political engagement.”Electoral Studies 27(1): 105-115
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An example: Vowles (2008)
RQ: Do differences between degrees of globalization shape
perceptions about whether politicians can make a difference?
DVs: perception of responsible party government
Key IV: trade dependence, financial integration
Data: Mods 1 & 2, 72 elections in 40 countries
Results: Appears to be no link
Vowles, Jack (2008). “Does globalization affect public perceptions of ‘Who in power can make a difference?’ Evidence from 40 countries, 1996-2006.” Electoral Studies 27(1): 63-76.
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Downloading Data
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Main Page
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Data Center
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Data Center: CSES Module 3
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Steps
1. Download zip file
2. Create the default directory 'c:\cses\module3\20100329\' and place the zip file 'cses3.zip' there.
3. unzip these two files from zip file 'cses3.zip':File 1: c:\cses\module3\20100329\cses3_rawdata.txtFile 2: c:\cses\module3\20100329\stata.zip
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Steps
4. Unzip these five files from the zip file 'stata.zip’File 1: c:\cses\module3\20100329\stata\cses3_codelabels.do File 2: c:\cses\module3\20100329\stata\cses3_columns.dct File 3: c:\cses\module3\20100329\stata\cses3_formats.doFile 4: c:\cses\module3\20100329\stata\cses3_run.doFile 5: c:\cses\module3\20100329\stata\cses3_variablelabels.do
5. Open the file 'cses3_run.do' in STATA and execute it.
6. A STATA system file named 'cses3_dataset' will appear in directory: c:\cses\module3\20100329\stata\
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CSES Module 3 ZIP file
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Stata: File -> Open -> Syntax
Open a do file
Run the do file
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Resulting Stata Dataset
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Opening the data in Stata
Set memory higher
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CSES Datasets
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CSES Datasets
All in one file, for all election studies and countries...
• Respondent data
— Administrative variables and weights
— CSES questionnaire (module)
— Demographic and vote variables
• District-level data
— District provided by collaborator
— Remainder researched by Secretariat
• Macro-level data
— Information about democratic institutions
— From collaborator-provided Macro Report
— Remainder researched by Secretariat
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Identification Variables
Germany
Numeric: 276
Character: DEU
1st Election Study
2002
(Telephone)
Sub-samples:
East Germany
West Germany
Respondent 549
2nd Election Study
2002
(Mail-Back)
Sub-samples:
East Germany
West Germany
Respondent 549
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Identification Variables
Variable Example Meaning
Component: Polity 2761
2762
Germany 1st study (Telephone)
Germany 2nd study (Mail-Back)
Component: Sample 001
002
East Germany sample
West Germany sample
Component: Election Year 2002 The election year 2002
Component: Respondent 549 Respondent 549
Election Study (numeric) 27612002
27622002
Germany 1st study (Telephone) 2002
Germany 2nd study (Mail-Back) 2002
Election Study (character) DEU12002
DEU22002
Germany 1st study (Telephone) 2002
Germany 2nd study (Mail-Back) 2002
Respondent 27612002...549
27622002...549
Germany 1st 2002 Respondent 549
Germany 2nd 2002 Respondent 549
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Demographic Variables
• Asked in all Modules:—Age, gender, education, marital status—Employment status, type, occupation, and industrial sector of respondent; occupation of spouse
—Union membership of respondent and others in household
—Number in household and household income—Religious attendance, denomination, religiosity—Language usually spoken at home—Race, ethnicity—Region of residence, rural or urban, and primary electoral district
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Demographic Variables
• Asked only in Modules 2 and 3:
—Association memberships
—Socio-economic status of respondent and spouse
—Employment status, employment type, and industrial sector of spouse
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CSES Module Variables
• Asked in all Modules:
—Vote(s) in current election
—Satisfaction with democratic process
—Party ID
—Likes-dislikes of parties and leaders
—Who is in power, who people vote for makes a difference
—Left-right evaluation of parties and self
—Optional scales for parties, leaders, and self
—Political information items
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CSES Module Variables
• Asked in Modules 1 and 2:
—Political participation: Contact with politician or official
• Asked in Modules 2 and 3:
—Most important problem/issue: sociotropic version (multiple mentions allowed in Module 3)
—Government performance
—Vote(s) in previous election
—Party, leader that represents your views (best)
—Left-right leader ratings
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CSES Module Variables
• Asked only in Module 1:
—Whether last election was conducted fairly
—Whether political parties care what people think
—Whether political parties are necessary
—Recollection of names and genders of candidates from last election
—Status of economy, and whether and how it has changed in last twelve months
—Whether politicians “know what ordinary people think”
—Do people express their political opinion
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CSES Module Variables
• Asked only in Module 2:
—Political participation: persuade others, campaign activities, protest/demonstration, worked with others
—Freedom and human rights, corruption
—Contacted by candidate or party during campaign
—Government performance on most important problem/issue, performance of party voted for in previous election
—How well voters’ views are represented in elections
—Whether democracy is better than any other form of government
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CSES Module Variables
• Asked only in Module 3:
—If voted, did you consider voting for others? others you would never vote for?
—Most important problem/issue: egocentric version
—Candidate/party competence on most important problems/issues
—During campaign, whether there were choice options (differences between parties/candidates)
—How closely the respondent followed the election campaign
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District-Level Variables
• For each district:
—Number of seats
—Number of candidates
—Number of party lists
—Percent vote, by party
—Turnout
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Macro-Level Variables (Module 3)
• Type of election and prior government
• Election results and turnout
• Party characteristics, candidates
• Most salient factors in election
• Fairness of election and election violence
• Alliances
• Voting rules
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Macro-Level Variables (Module 3)
• Political/regime characteristics… type, freedom rating
• Social and economic… HDI, GDP, employment, inflation
• Electoral institutions… classification, structure, formula, openness
• Election-specific characteristics… turnout, outcome
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Variable Names
Names (Module 1) Content
C1001 - C1999 IDs, weights, administrative
C2001 - C2999 Demographics, vote choice
C3000 - C3999 CSES Module questionnaire
C4000 - C4999 District-level variables
C5000 - C5999 Macro-level variables
Variable Names Study
A1001 - A5999 CSES Module 1
B1001 - B5999 CSES Module 2
C1001 - C5999 CSES Module 3
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Missing data codes
Missing data needs to be dealt with!!
• Invalid codes are not “system missing”
• In Stata: mvdecode _all, mv(999)
• Most variables have to be handled one by one
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Handling missing data in Stata
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Available Documentation
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Codebook
Zip file or website
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Codebook: Introduction
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Codebook: Introduction
Table of contents
• CSES Project Profile
• CSES Module 3 study description
• CSES Module 3 Planning committee
• CSES Module 4 Planning committee
• CSES Module 3 Collaborators
• CSES Module 3 Secretariat
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Codebook: Introduction
• Micro-level (SURVEY) component
• District-level component
• Macro-level components
• How to use the CSES Module 3 Documentation
• Types of Documentation Available
• Codebook conventions
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Codebook: Introduction
• How to Use CSES Module 3 data files (SAS, SPSS, STATA)
• Special data notes
• Identifications of Variables
• Missing data
• Weights
• Freedom Status of elections
• Bibliography
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Codebook: Introduction
• List of elections studies included in Module 3
• Election summaries and general notes
oAustralia (2007)
oBelarus (2008)
oBrazil (2006)
oCroatia (2007)
oFinland (2007)
oGermany(2005)
oIsrael (2006)
oJapan (2007)
oNorway (2005)
oSouth Korea (2008)
oSweden (2006
oSwitzerland (2007)
oTaiwan (2008)
oThailand (2007)
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Election summary: Israel 2006
Details about the general climate of the elections
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Election summary: Israel 2006
Details about how the survey was conducted
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Codebook: Variable List
List of all
variables
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Codebook : Election study notes
Question wording + coding scheme
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Codebook : Election study notes
In the notes you
find all details of
coding
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Codebook: Appendix
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Codebook: Appendix
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Codebook: Appendix
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Additional documentation: website
• Original design report
• Original language questionnaires
• Back-translated questionnaires
• Original macro reports
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Data Availability
• — Free, public access without embargo
• — Available from CSES website:
• www.cses.org
• — Can be read into SAS, SPSS, STATA, etc.
• — Also archived at GESIS, ICPSR, and many other locations (for example, university libraries)
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Thanks for your time!
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Challenges & Opportunities in Cross-National Electoral
Research
Special topic: sample weights
Jessica FortinGESIS - Leibniz-Institut für Sozialwissenschaften
Jill WittrockUniversity of [email protected]
Essex Summer School, 31st July 2010
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What are sample weights?
• Standard survey practice
• Used to derive population estimates from survey sample
• What do they do?
— adjust the relative importance of any one response to reflect that not all survey respondents were selected with the same probabilities,
—reduce bias,
—align sample respondent distributions to known population distributions to improve coverage and precision.
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Election Study Weights
• Sample
…corrects for unequal probability of selection
• Demographic
…adjusts to reflect characteristics of population
• Political
…corrects to official vote counts
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Election Study Weights: Example
Unweighted Selection
ProbabilityRespondent N Income Weight
A 1.0 $1,000 1x 1.0
B 1.0 $4,000 2x 0.5
C 1.0 $4,000 2x 0.5
• Sample
…corrects for unequal probability of selection
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Election Study Weights: Example
Unweighted Selection
ProbabilityRespondent N Income Weight
A 1.0 $1,000 1x 1.0
B 1.0 $4,000 2x 0.5
C 1.0 $4,000 2x 0.5
Sum 3.0 $9,000
Mean $3,000
• Sample
…corrects for unequal probability of selection
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Election Study Weights: Example
Unweighted Selection
Probability
Weighted
Respondent N Income Weight N Income
A 1.0 $1,000 1x 1.0 1.0 $1,000
B 1.0 $4,000 2x 0.5 0.5 $2,000
C 1.0 $4,000 2x 0.5 0.5 $2,000
Sum 3.0 $9,000
Mean $3,000
• Sample
…corrects for unequal probability of selection
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Election Study Weights: Example
Unweighted Selection
Probability
Weighted
Respondent N Income Weight N Income
A 1.0 $1,000 1x 1.0 1.0 $1,000
B 1.0 $4,000 2x 0.5 0.5 $2,000
C 1.0 $4,000 2x 0.5 0.5 $2,000
Sum 3.0 $9,000 2.0 $5,000
Mean $3,000 $2,500
• Sample
…corrects for unequal probability of selection
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Election Study Weights: Example
Unweighted Weighted
Respondent N Weight N
Female 1.0 1.0 1.0
Male 1.0 0.5 0.5
Male 1.0 0.5 0.5
Females 33.3% 50.0%
Males 66.6% 50.0%
• Demographic
…adjusts to reflect characteristics of population
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Election Study Weights: Example
• Political
…corrects to official vote counts
Unweighted Weighted
Respondent N Weight N
Democratic 1.0 1.0 1.0
Republican 1.0 0.5 0.5
Republican 1.0 0.5 0.5
Democratic 33.3% 50.0%
Republican 66.6% 50.0%
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Weight Derivatives
• Included are the Original Weights from the collaborator, and these two derivative sets:
—Polity Weights so that each respondent has a mean weight of “1” (making the unweighted number of respondents and the weighted number of respondents to be equal)
—Dataset Weights so that each dataset contributes equally to an analysis, regardless of the number of respondents
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Weight Derivatives
Election Original Polity Dataset
Study Resp. Weight Weight Weight
A A 10,000 / 20,000 = 0.5 * 5,000 / 1,000 = 2.5
A B 30,000 / 20,000 = 1.5 * 5,000 / 1,000 = 7.5
A C 20,000 / 20,000 = 1.0 * 5,000 / 1,000 = 5.0
Mean 20,000 1.0 5.0
B A 1 / 1 = 1.0 * 5,000 / 5,000 = 1.0
B B 1 / 1 = 1.0 * 5,000 / 5,000 = 1.0
Mean 1 1.0 1.0
In this example, an average election study has 5,000 respondents. Election
Study A has 1,000 respondents. Election Study B has 5,000 respondents.
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CSES weights in Data File
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Weights in Module 3
Sampleweight
Demographicweight
Political weight
No weight provided
AUSTRALIA (2007) x
BELARUS (2008) x
BRAZIL (2006) x
CROATIA (2007) x x
FINLAND (2007) x
GERMANY (2005) x x
ISRAEL (2006) x
JAPAN (2007) x
NORWAY (2005) x
SOUTH KOREA (2008) x
SWEDEN (2006) x
SWITZERLAND (2007 x x
AUSTRALIA (2007)
TAIWAN (2008) x
THAILAND (2007) x
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Weighting in Stata
• Weights in Stata:
1. Frequency weights (fweights): weights that indicate the number ofduplicated observations.
2. Sampling weights (pweights): weights that denote the inverse of theprobability that the observation is included because of the sampling design.
3. Analytic weights (aweights): weights that are inversely proportional tothe variance of an observation. The observations represent averagesand the weights are the number of elements that gave rise to the average.
4. importance weights (iweights): weights that indicate the "importance" ofthe observation.
EXAMPLE: regress y x1 x2 x3 [pweight=C1010_1]
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Election Study Weights
• Some election studies provide more than one weight:
—Sample
—Demographic
—Political
• Usually, but not always, the demographic and political weights are a combination weight
• Only the analyst can judge which weight is best to use for their particular analysis
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Thank you for your time!
To learn more about CSES, or to download data:
www.cses.org
...or email your questions to: