TEAM BLUE!!•Katie Argo

•Allie Luftig

•Amanda Fay

•Karmen Scott

•Robert Gilstrap

•Beth Moir

http://www.katrina-hurricane.biz/

Hurricane frequency and intensity ARE

increasing as a function of time.

1851 1927 2004

from Tropical Prediction Center Best Track Reanalysis

Number of hurricanes per year separated by intensity

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

year

nu

mb

er

of

hu

rric

an

es

category 1

category 2

category 3

category 4

category 5

Average number of hurricanes per decade by intensity

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

year

nu

mb

er o

f h

urr

ican

es

cat 1

cat 2

cat 3

cat 4

cat 5

Linear (cat 1)

Linear (cat 2)

Linear (cat 3)

Linear (cat 4)

Linear (cat 5)

Frequency

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/images/at2005.gif

Frequency: 1/8

# of hurricanes per year

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

year

# o

f hurr

icanes

Frequency: 2/8

# of hurricanes per year

y = 0.0119x - 17.644

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

year

# o

f h

urr

ican

es

Frequency: 3/8

Avg. # of hurricanes/ year per decade

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

decade

avg. #

of

hu

rric

an

es p

er

year

chi^2=2.93894039d.f=16p=.05, 26.3

Frequency: 4/8

Avg. # of hurricanes/ year per decade

y = 0.1409x + 4.1525

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

decade

avg. #

of

hu

rric

an

es p

er

year

chi^2=2.93894039d.f=16p=.05, 26.3

avg. # annual hurr.(fo) and sin model(fe) per decade

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

decade

avg. #

an

nu

al h

urr

.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

(1

.4)*

SIN

((0

.8)*

(x-

1))+

(4

.5+

(0

.1*

x))

avg # annual hurr. (1.4)* SIN((0.8)* (x-1))+(4.5+(0.1* x))

Frequency: 5/8

sin model(fe) VS # hurricanes(fo)

y = 1.0516x + 0.0903R2 = 0.8462

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

3 4 5 6 7 8 9

# of hurricanes

(1

.4)*

SIN

((0

.8)*

(x-

1))+

(4

.5+

(0

.1*

x))

(1.4)* SIN((0.8)* (x-1))+(4.5+(0.1* x)) vs. avg. # annual hurr.Linear ((1.4)* SIN((0.8)* (x-1))+(4.5+(0.1* x)) vs. avg. # annual hurr.)

chi 2̂=.65348051d.f=13p=.05, 22.36

Frequency: 6/8

Chi^2= 0.63548051

d.f.= 13

P=0.05, 22.36

Frequency: 7/8

hurricanes and temp (shifted 10 years ahead) vs. time

3

4

5

6

7

8

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

time (decade)

avg

. #

hurr

.

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

avg

tem

p

change s

hif

ted

10 y

ears

ahead

Series1 Series2

Frequency: 8/8

# hurricanes vs temp(shifted ahead 10 years)

y = 4.9024x + 6.0769R2 = 0.55

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

-0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4

temp. (shifted ahead 10 years)

# h

urr

icanes

# hurr. vs tempLinear (# hurr. vs temp)

chi^2=1.61439098d.f.=12p=.05, 21.03

Intensity

Intensity: 1/4

% of total hurricanes that are category 4 or 5 versus year

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

year

pe

rce

nta

ge

Intensity: 2/4

Avg. % of cat 4's and 5's/year per decade

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

decadeChi^2 = .3

Degrees Freedom = 14

Intensity: 3/4

Wind Speed v Year

020

406080

100

120140

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

year

win

d sp

eed

(kno

ts)

Intensity: 4/4

average decadal wind speed over time

y = 0.0705x + 84.967

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 50 100 150 200

year since 1851

win

d sp

eed

(kno

ts)

Series1

Linear(Series1)

Chi^2 = 2.8

Degrees freedom = 14

Conclusion

• Null hypothesis is NOT rejected, therefore the data fits our specific models…

• What does this mean for the future?

http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/pcmin/climo.htmlhttp://www.nationalgeographic.com/forcesofnature/img/case/h_galveston.jpg

                                                                                                                                                                                             

    

http://www.boston.com/news/weather/gallery/aerial_view_katrina/

hurricane data: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/ and http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2005/

temperature data: http://homework.uoregon.edu/pub/class/355/gdata.txt and [http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/ftpdata/tavenh2v.dat(Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental SciencesUniversity of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK)]

SOURCES

http://www.woodtruss.com/projects/woodtruss/images/disaster.jpg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/4/47/Galveston_-_1900_wreckage.jpg/300px-Galveston_-_1900_wreckage.jpg

http://www.gesource.ac.uk/satellite/1432.jpg

http://www.bronzefx.com/kevin/natural_disasters/hurricane_katrina/i000773_big.jpg

http://drake.marin.k12.ca.us/stuwork/rockwater/Hurricanes/tornado.jpg