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Starting School at Four: the Efecto Universal Pre-Kindergarten onChildren’s Academic Achievement

Maria ! Fit"#atric$

The B. E. Journal of Economic Analysis andPolicy 2008

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%utline

&! 'hat efects o child care( )literature*

+! ,he diference in diference rame or$

.! ,he article’s estimation strateg/ 0 results.!&! Sim#le -i-.!+! .!.! 'ith s/nthetic control grou#

1! iscussion

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'hat in#ut( #reschool in the

US Preschool in the US:

Kindergarten

Pre-K

2ead Start

E3#eriments: A4ecedarian5 Perr/

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'hat outcomes (

Child develo#ment6anguage a4ilities

Sociali"ation5 4ehavior ) ψ tests*School #re#aredness: later test scoresEven later: ages5 crime5 7 o arrests

8

6a4or su##l/ o mothers

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6iterature

E3#eriments: A4ecedarian5 Perr/Cost:

4et een &9 and 1 US ;/earvs! 1 or universal Pre-K

2ead Start : heterogeneous in #ractice⇒ efects not that clear

< trade-of 4et een intensive targeted careand smaller-scale universal care(

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→ Articles to 4e revie ed

Cascio )=2> + ?*: i 5 timing o reeKindergarten ; maternal em#lo/ment

Fit"#atric$ )=o6E + & *: same theme5>egression iscontinuit/ esign

Cascio 0 al )@=E + & * : efect o nancialincentives ; desegregation: : +S6S B

2ec$man 0 al )=PE + & * rate o return tothe 2ighSco#e Perr/ Preschool Programrevisited )e3#erimental design*

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+! ,he -in- method

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ntuition: Com#aring D4e ore and Da ter

situation o the treated ⇒ 4ias )man/con ounding actors* Com#aring Da ter situation o treatedand control ⇒ 4ias )com#osition efect*

⇒ rather loo$ at change in the di erence in outcome 4et een treated and control

,he Ddiference-in-diferencemethod

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E3am#le )'ooldridge*: im#act o the 4uilding o anincinerator in + 9 on house #rices inneigh4orhood

e ne ,

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Iou need #rice data rom "efore construction#as e$en announced Estimating #rice +::+ < γ 0 B γ 1 (T 1! B u /ields

dvd < -&9 < #rice ,5+::+ G #rice C5+::+ < ,his sho s that #rices ere alread/ lo er inthe neigh4orhood here the incinerator ould4e 4uilt ,he -i- estimator sim#l/ com4ines these +elements o in ormation to estimate the causalim#act o ,

1γ̂ 2002,2002, C T y y −


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Average increase in the di erence in #rices 4et eenhouses located near the incinerator ) %ear

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#rice < β : B β1 .%ear B δ: !date2 B δ&!%ear&date2 B u

here date2 is a varia4le that

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4

][ ,20020 far Y E =β ][][ ,2002,20021 far near Y E Y E −=β

[ ] [ ][][][][ ,2002,2002,2006,20061 far near far near Y E Y E Y E Y E −−−=δ ][][ ,2002,20060 far far Y E Y E −=δ


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δ& measures the di erence in a$erage 'rice change

Ddiference : 4et een the neigh4orhood herethe incinerator as 4uilt and the rest o theto nDchange : 4et een date & )+ +* and date +)+ *

4


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Mean Price Far ear

+ + β β B β&

+ β B δ β B β& B δ B δ&


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Price

β0

δ0

δ0

β1

δ1

β1


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n general: estimate

/ < β : B δ: !date2 B β1 . (T 1! B δ&! (T 1! &date2 Bcontrols B u

,he treatment efect is given 4/

coeNcient δ&

t’s an A,E: Average ,reatment Efect


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Crucial assum#tion:

in the a4sence o treatment5 thediference )once o4serva4les have4een controlled or* 4et een , 0 C

ould have remained constant

< counter actual


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Same as: nothing 4ut the treatmenthad an im#act on ,’s outcome trend4ut not on C’sUnder this assum#tion5 the entire shi ta a/ rom the common trend can 4eattri4uted to the treatment

something else ha##ens at the sametime that could afect , 0 Cdiferently 5 on’t identi / causalefect


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.! ,he #a#er’s strateg/

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,he evaluated #olic/

Fall &??.: Oeorgia institutes lotter/ tound targeted #reschool

Fall &??9: too much mone/ ⇒ #reschool #rogram 4ecomes universal

Share o Oeorgian 1-/ear-olds enrolled:Q )&??.* → 9 Q )&?? *

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,reatment on the treated( o A,E o the a$aila"ility o Pre-K

D ntention to treat

'hat outcomes to consider(

,est scores in 1th

gradeOrade retention

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m#ortant chec$s

&* ,a$e-u# and cro d out all increase is made o children ne to

#reschool5 total enrolment ill haveincreased

increase < onl/ Dcro d out rom children#reviousl/ attending #rivate #reschool5 noincrease in total enrolment

+* ,rends in 2ead StartA #rett/ similar #rogram → i changes at thesame time5 con ounding actor

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m#ortant chec$s )&;+*

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m#ortant chec$s )+;+*

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Estimation

,he 4asic -i- model :

'here : I iRt is test score o #u#il i in school R on /ear tState i and /ear t are state and /ear 3ed efects

Oeorgia a ter ta$es the value & i student &4elongs to a cohort having had access touniversal #re-K

'ho are e com#aring to hom(

ijt t iijt year Stateafter GeorgiaY ε β β ++++= *10

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Estimation

Potential 4ias i com#osition o test-ta$ing#o#ulation changed in OA relative to otherstates over time → added controls :

'here :T iRt is a vector o characteristics o #u#il i inschool R on /ear t

Rt is a vector o school R characteristics on /ear t

ijt jt ijt

t iijt

Z X

year Stateafter GeorgiaY

ε γ σ

β β

+++

++++= *10

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1! >esults

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Estimation strateg/

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Estimation strateg/

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>esults

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A s#eci cation

Chec$ or urther con ounding actors:add th graders to regression

,he model 4ecomes

ijt it i

ii

t it iii

t iiijt

fourth year State fourthafter Georgia

year State year fourthState fourth

year State fourthY

ε β

β

+++

+++

+++=

****

***

1

0

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A s#eci cation

,he estimated coef 4e ore theOeorgia a ter ourth dumm/ is

)OA 1 th a ter - other States 1 th a ter * - )OA 1 th 4e ore - other States 1 th 4e ore *L

-)OA th a ter- other States th a ter * -)OA th 4e ore - other States th 4e ore *L

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A s#eci cation

something else than the #olic/ athand )universal Pre-K* caused schoolresults o Oeorgian $ids to shi t a a/

rom those o other states5 the -i- onth graders ill catch that shi t

,hen the diference 4et een that shi t

and the one o4served on 1 th gradersould 4e the #olic/ efect

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A s#eci cation

Assum#tion here < (

Shi t 4et een OA 0 other states notcaused 4/ the #rogram < same or 1 th 0 th graders

Put diferentl/: other actors )not the#rogram* afected 1 th 0 th graders inthe same a/

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,he Ds/nthetic control

method A4adie5 iamond5 2ainmueller )+ V*:aggregrated data )e!g! at region level!!!*

%ne unit is treated

,here are several control units

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,he Ds/nthetic control

method nstead o choosing one control grou#the/ construct a counter actualoutcome as a linear com4ination o allnon treated outcomes Each control unit is eighted 4/ itsdistance to the treated unit )according

to several #redictors o the outcome*

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,he A 2 method

Minimi"e distance 4et een OA D4e oreand D4e ore s/nthetic control made o allother states )$

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,he A 2 method

,reatment efect can then 4e estimatedthe usual -i- a/

is smallenough5

treatment efect is estimated 4/

∑=

− N

k after k k after GA yw y

2,, .

∑=− N

k beforek k beforeGA yw y 2 ,, .

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,he A 2 method

2ere: a D#lace4o test ith treatment4et een &?? and + /ields anDefect Math scores decreased 4/ &!VQ o an Sin OA relative to other states dea: com#are OA to states that shothe same trend 4e ore treatment Even 4etter: com#are OA to the linearcom4ination o states that 4est ts #re-treatment trend

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>esults

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>esults

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>esults

Statisticall/ insigni cant though#ositive state- ide efects

→ heterogeneous efects(

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>esults

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iscussion

Efects not ver/ large5 not al a/sstatisticall/ signi cant

'hat could cause this even i #re-K hadan efect on school #re#aredness(

&+Q in 2ead Start5 &9 to .9Q alread/in some non-su4sidi"ed #reschool → man/ Dtreated in the control grou# %nl/ Dintent to treat efect → assuming all increase < ne

#artici#ants5 A,, < much stronger

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iscussion

Seems that 4ene ts are more #rominentor some grou#s : rural5 non- hite

Cost-4ene t anal/sis: 4etter grades ⇒ 4etter ages ⇒ more ta3es 4ut huge costs )W. M* out eigh4ene ts )XW9 M*

Pu4lic #olic/ recommendation: target#u4licl/ unded #re-K #rograms

TD Eval Droy 111115

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