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c ev ng

c ean

energy

econom es

throughacceleratedinternationalaction

NobuoTanaka

ExecutiveDirector

CleanEnergy

Ministerial

WashingtonDC

OECD/IEA2010

19July2010

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World

total

primary

energy

supply14000

16000

Mtoe

10000

12000

Other renewables

4000

6000

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

0

2000

CD

CD

CD

CD

CD

CD

CD

CD

Coal

OE

Non-OE

OE

Non-OE

OE

Non-OE

OE

Non-OE

2007 Baseline 2030 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050

OECD/IEA2010

MajorEconomiesareprojectedtoaccountfor70%ofgrowthin

energydemand

and

CO2

emissions

between

now

and

2030

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Primaryenergydemandbyfuelandbyscenario

8 000

5000

6000

7000

M

toe 2007 Baseline2050 BLUEMap2050

27%

2000

3000

400036%

0

B 2050 coal oil and as demand are all lower than

OECD/IEA2010

todayundertheBLUEMapscenario.

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Impact

of

fossil

fuel

subsidy

phase

out,

2011

2020

Global fossilfuelsavings GlobalenergyrelatedCO2 emissions

300

350

400

Mto

e

34

36

38Gt

150

200

250

28

30

32

0

50

100

22

24

26

Coal Oil GasNo subsidy removal

Subsidy removal 2011-2020

OECD/IEA2010

ompare w t a ase neo noremova ,g o a p aseouto oss ue

consumptionsubsidiescouldreduceenergydemandby5.8%(6.5mb/d

oilsavings)andenergyrelatedCO2 emissionsby2.4Gtin2020.

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Transformingmarketsforclean

Manysuccessfulnationalcasestudiesforclean

energymar ettrans ormat on

CFLs,energyefficientmotors,solarPV,fuel

Morecanbeachievedthroughinternational

HarmonisedtestprotocolsandstandardsforEE

products

CommonEE

incentives

for

appliance

manufacturers

SimilarsolarPVincentivesprogrammes

OECD/IEA2010

Coor nate e ectr cve c ep ote orts

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Globalcooperationcantransformenduse

electricale ui ment

markets

Actionneededtoacceleratemarkettransformationon:

1. Refrigeratorandfreezers

2. Domesticlighting

3. Televisions

4. Airconditioners

.

6. Networkstandbypower

OECD/IEA2010

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Evolutionoflightdutyvehiclesalesby

technology

Baselinescenario BLUEMapscenario

140

160

180

200

illionsales/

yr

160

180

200

Hydrogenfuelcell

Hydrogenhybrid

80

100

120m

80

100

120 CNGandLPG

Pluginhybriddiesel

Plugin

hybrid

gasoline

0

20

40

20

40

60 y r ese

Hybridgasoline

Diesel

Gasoline

OECD/IEA2010

,

plugin hybrid, allelectric and fuelcell vehicles, dominate

sales after 2030.

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DecarbonisingthePowersector: CCSisonepartofstoryalongsidenuclearandrenewables

12,000

OECDPACIFIC

USA

2050

3,400 projects

OECD(35%)

8,000

10,000

r)

OTHEROECDNAM

OECDEUROPE

ODA

ME

INDIA

NonOECD(65%)

2040

2,100projects

OECD(40%)

NonOECD(60%)

6,000

ured

CO2

(MtCO2

/EEU+FSU

CSA

CHINA

AFR

2030

850projects

OECD

(49%)NonOECD(51%)

2,000

,

Capt

2020

100 projects

OECD(50%)

NonOECD(50%)

2015

18 projects

OECD(72%)

NonOECD(28%)

0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

OECD/IEA2010

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PubliccleanenergyRD&D:

OECD/IEA2010

Stimulus

packages

are

a

one

time

funding

increase;

howtoachievesustainedhigherlevelsofinvestment?

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IncentivisingInvestment

Publicspendingisoneprovenwaytoaccelerateeconomic

growthandenergytechnologyinnovation

Need

to

leverage

new

private

investment

by

providing

longterm,stablestandardsandincentives

oreo ese ypeso s ra eg capproac esarenee e :

IndiasNationalCleanEnergyFundforresearchandinnovation,

financedby

alevy

on

coal

KoreasGreenNewDealstrategy,whichfunds17newgrowth

enginesandsupportsRD&D

TheUSAdvancedResearchProjectsAgency Energy,helpshigh

risk,high

return

technologies

bridge

the

valley

of

death

TheUKsGreenInvestmentBankwith$3Bininitialfundsforlarge

scalecleanenergydemonstrationprojects

OECD/IEA2010

Chinas 2009investmentinelectricitygriddevelopmentin2009

wasits

highest

ever,

and

plans

to

invest

$44B

in

advanced

vehicles

toverthenext5years

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Thefirstgreenshoots

much

more

needs

to

be

done

46GWofPV Over1billionplugin IncreasefundingbyOver3000plants Lightingmarket

dominatedby

until2050

in2050

currentlevels

2050 LEDsin2050

Plansfor5million

hybridand

electricvehicles

by2020

6GWofPV

installedin2009

1/3funding

increase

between

2005and2008

80largescale

integratedplants

beingdeveloped

Globalsalesof

CFLs @3500

million/yr

OECD/IEA2010

Renewables Transport Energy

efficiency

Researchand

development

Carboncapture

andstorage

OECD/IEA - 2010