Tam Apr 3 Q08 20090115 Eng
Transcript of Tam Apr 3 Q08 20090115 Eng
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Information and Projection
This notice may contain estimates for future events. These estimates merely reflect the expectations of the Company’s management, and involve risks and uncertainties. The Company is not responsible for investment operations or decisions taken based on information contained in this communication. These estimates are subject to changes without prior notice.
This material has been prepared by TAM S.A. (“TAM“ or the “Company”) includes certain forward-looking statements that are based principally on TAM’s current expectations and on projections of future events and financial trends that currently affect or might affect TAM’s business, and are not guarantees of future performance. They are based on management’s expectations that involve a number of business risks and uncertainties, any of each could cause actual financial condition and results of operations to differ materially from those set out in TAM’s forward-looking statements. TAM undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forwardlooking statements.
This material is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Likewise it does not give and should not be treated as giving investment advice. It has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein. It should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.
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PreviousPeriod
CurrentPeriod
J F MAM J J ASOND J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J ASOND J FMAM J J A S80859095
100105110115120125130
Domestic Market - Variation(vs previous period)
The domestic market grew 10% from January to September 2008
Source: ANAC
Accum. market growth 2006
12%
Accum. market growth 2005
19%
Accum. market growth 2007
12%
Accum. market growth 2008
10%
20072005 2006 2008
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PreviousPeriod
Market
TAM
J FMAM J J ASOND J FMAM J J ASOND J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J AS40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
International Market - Variation(vs previous period)
The international market (among Brazilian carriers) is recovering and grew 36% …
Source: ANAC
Accum. Marketgrowth 2008
36%
Acum TAM 200641%
Acum TAM 200771%
Acum TAM 200540%
Acum TAM 200844%
Accum. market growth 2005
7%
Accum. market decrease 2006
30%
Accum. market decrease 2007
5%
20072005 2006 2008
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…with higher growth anticipated for Brazilian carriers due to the unbalance in the bilateral agreements…
Source: ANAC annual report
* estimates
58.2%
41.8%
57.7%
42.3%
66.9%
33.1%
71.2%
28.8%
66.5%
33.5%
2004 2005 2006 2007 Jan - Sep2008*
0
20
40
60
80
100%
% international passenger
BrazilianCarriers
IntlCarriers
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…observed in many countries, as the example between Brazil and USA
77
107
147
2821
357
10542
Italy
England
Germany
France
Spain
USA
1414
1414
2121
3030
5151
126*126*
150 100 50 0 50 100 150
Weekly Frequencies
* 21 frequencies limited to the cities in the north, northeast and central west regions of Brazil and/or Belo Horizonte
Brazilian Carriers Foreign Carriers
Available space on bilateral Operated by Brazilian Carriers Operated by Foreign Carriers
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We are both domestic and international market leaders
TAM’s Domestic Market Share*TAM’s Domestic Market Share*
Source: ANAC
* RPK – Revenue passenger kilometer
TAM’s International Market Share* – Among Brazilian carriersTAM’s International Market Share* – Among Brazilian carriers
33,0%35,8%
48,0% 48,9% 50,2% 52,4% 52,8%
43,5%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jan - Sep 2008 3Q08 Sep/08
12,0% 14,3%
37,5%
67,5%72,4% 75,8%
82,1%
18,8%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jan - Sep 2008 3Q08 Sep/08
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Increasing our fleetDelivery of 2 A319 and 4 A320 (versus 2Q08)Delivery of 1 B767 and first B777-300ER (versus 2Q08)Redelivery of the entire F100 fleetRedelivery of 1 MD11 (versus 2Q08)
Operational efficiency12.6 block hours per aircraft per day13.1 block hours per aircraft per day. considering only the operating fleetAverage total load factor of 72.4% in 3Q08
Agreements:Increase in TAP’s code share, with flights to Buenos Aires, via São Paulo and Rio de JaneiroBeginning code share with Lufthansa (August 18)Beginning code share with Air Canada (October 07)Entrance in Star Alliance announced (October 07)
3Q08 Highlights (1/3)
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3Q08 Highlights (2/3)
Strengthening of our networkNew nonstop flight to:
Buenos Aires, including from Brasília (August 08)Bariloche and Lima, via São Paulo (August 14 and October 17, respectively)Miami, via Rio de Janeiro (September 19)
ANAC’s approval to new nonstop flights to:New York, via Rio de Janeiro (November 1st) Orlando, via São Paulo (November 21)
Adjustments in TAM Airlines’ operational and administrative structureAwards Received
Honor in 'Biggest and Best' of EXAME’s magazine 35 years ceremonyValor 1,000 as the best Company in the Transportation and Logistics sector
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3Q08 Highlights (3/3)
Adherence to the declaration of "Business Social Responsibility and Human Rights”
Share Buy-back program228.700 thousand shares bought-back
Contract for mobile communications aboard its aircraft
TAM CARGOLargest freight terminal installed in Manaus
New Cargo Terminal Operations installed at Tom Jobim Airport
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Star Alliance
On October 7, we announced our entry into the Star Alliance
Star Alliance is the largest global alliance and today is composed by 22 airline companies from all over the world
After the integration period, our passengers will have a better experience and several benefits as:
1,000 destinations in 170 countries
20 thousand daily frequencies
Luggage to final destination
Faster and easier connections
More than 800 VIP lounges
Possibility of accumulate and redeem points or miles in different loyalty programs
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178200
554
1,214
263
260
813
1,670
3Q07 3Q08
2,146
3,006
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Gross Revenue (R$ M) Domestic passenger revenue grew 38%
RPK increased 17%
ASK increased 17%
International passenger revenue grew 47%
RPK increased 38%
ASK increased 23%
Cargo revenue grew 30%
Other revenue grew 48%
Our gross revenue increased 40%...
Domestic Pax International Pax Cargo Other
40%
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...and total RASK increased 18%...
RASK total ¹ ²
RASK scheduled domestic²
Domestic load factor - %
Yield scheduled domestic³
RASK scheduled international²
International load factor - %
Yield scheduled international³
Yield scheduled international³(USD cents)
3Q073Q07 2Q082Q08 3Q083Q08 3Q08 vs 3Q07
3Q08 vs 3Q07
3Q08 vs 2Q08
3Q08 vs 2Q08
R$ Cents
1 Includes charter. cargo and Other revenues. net of taxes2 Net of taxes3 Gross of taxes
RASK scheduled international² (USD cents)
17.01
15.43
66.3
24.42
12.52
70.8
17.69
9.62
18.40
17.66
68.1
27.23
11.48
73.4
15.64
9.82
20.07
18.24
66.5
28.81
14.85
79.9
18.60
9.72
18.0
18.2
0.1
p.p.
18.0
18.6
9.1
p.p.
5.1
1.0
9.1
3.3
-1.6
p.p.
5.8
29.4
6.5 p.p.
18.9
-1.1
6.81 7.21 7.76 13.9 7.6
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...and the total CASK increased 14%...
CASK
CASK excl-fuel
3Q07 3Q08
16.54
18.91
0
5
10
15
20
Total CASKBR GAAP - R$ cents
3Q08 vs 3Q07
1.2%
14.3%
15
...leading to an increase in spread (RASK-CASK)
3Q07 3Q08
17.0116.54
20.08
18.91
15
17
19
21
RASK/CASK (R$ Cents)BR GAAP
RASKCASK
EBITMargin
Spread
2.8%
0.47
5.8%
1.18
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However, we presented losses in our financial result
*WTI West Texas Intermediate
09.30.2008 09.30.2007
Financial incomeInterest income from financial investments 48.050 65.261Exchange variation 482.358 122.327Financial instrument/gains – FX 75 42.557Financial instrument/gains – WTI*
Realized 24.672Unrealized 28.219
Other 4.818 1.310535.301 284.346
Financial expensesExchange variation -428.884 -146.559Interest expense -111.115 -61.837Financial instrument/losses – FX -1.923 -38.612Financial instrument losses – WTI*
Realized -18.840Unrealized -268.267
Other -7.775 -9.410-836.804 -256.418
Financial result, net -301.503 27.928
Mainly impacted by unrealized
losses in WTI hedging
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All instruments contracted over-the-counter
No deposits of guarantees or margin calls
Counterparties rated as “low credit risk” by the major rating agencies (Standard & Poors, Fitch, and Moody’s)
Our WTI derivative transactions are contracted only for hedging purposes to protect operations...
20082008 20092009 20102010Notional(thousand of barrels)Fair Value (MTM)
2,180 7,200 800
(21,941) (170,276) (17,118)
1Q081Q08 2Q082Q08 3Q083Q08
Volume of contracted transactions (thousand of barrel)
WTI end of period (USD/barrel)
% consumption of the twelve ensuing months
5,390
102
41%
4,390
140
31%
10,180
101
56%
Current SituationCurrent Situation
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…following our policy and corporate governance
Our policy is to hedge from 30% - 80% of the projected fuel consumption in a minimum of 3 and a maximum of 24 months, approved and monitored monthly by board audit and financial committee
Fuel HedgingFuel Hedging
Risk CommitteeRisk Committee
We are committed to the highest standards of corporate governance and concerned with ensuring a high control standard of our processes
Composition: eight executives of the Company from different areasResponsibility: to make Management comfortable to regularly evaluate scenarios, hedge operations adopted and suggest any necessary adjustmentsActivities: to validate policies, approving processes and activities to manage risks involving liquidity, credit, legal, fiscal and operations
specialized in measuring risks and suggesting protection alternatives objectives
to make Management comfortable by creating “risk committees” to permanently evaluate scenarios, confirm the effectiveness of the hedge operations adopted and suggest any necessary adjustments
quality assurance on MTM evaluations
Risk Office (third part)Risk Office (third part)
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In BR GAAP our operating margin was 6%...
Margin over net revenue
BR GAAP
3T07 3T08
49
-113-120
-90
-60
-30
0
30
60
Lucro Líquido - R$ M
3T07 3T08
313
423
0
100
200
300
400
500
EBITDAR - R$ M
35%
15% 15%
3T07 3T08
57
167
0
50
100
150
200
EBIT - R$ M
192%
3%
6%2%
- 4%
20
...the same as in US GAAP
Margin over net revenue
US GAAP
3Q07 3Q08
306
390
0
100
200
300
400
EBITDAR - R$ M
28%
3Q07 3Q08
112
186
0
50
100
150
200
EBIT - R$ M
66%
3Q07 3Q08
143
-475-550
-450
-350
-250
-150
-50
50
150
Net Income - R$ M
15% 14% 5%
6%
7%
- 16%
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We posted loss per share
3Q07 3Q08
0.95
-3.15
Earnings per shareUS GAAP (R$)
3Q07 3Q08
0.32
-0.75
Earnings per shareBR GAAP (R$)
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BR GAAP Leasing IncomeTaxes
Others US GAAP
-113
-535
184-11 -475
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
Net Profit Reconciliation to US GAAP
52 aircrafts are reclassified as capital
leases as per SFAS nº 13
52 aircrafts are reclassified as capital
leases as per SFAS nº 13
The main difference between BR and US GAAP is the accounting treatment of aircraft leasing
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Our balance sheet remains solid…
R$ million - BRGAAP 2008* 2007 2006 2005 2004
Cash (1) 2.105 2.607 2.453 995 297
Short-Term Debt (2) 836 1.005 363 216 204
Long-Term Debt (3) 1.752 1.345 895 425 399
Total Debt (A) = (2) + (3) 2.588 2.350 1.258 641 603
Shareholder's Equity (4) 1.420 1.527 1.449 760 191
Capitalization (B) = (3 + 4) 3.173 2.872 2.344 1.185 590
Aircraft and flight equipment leases** (5) 6.140 5.976 5.032 4.389 4.557
Total Debt Adjusted (C) = (A + 5) 8.729 8.326 6.290 5.030 5.160
Total Capitalization Adjusted (D) = (3 + 4 + 5) 9.313 8.848 7.376 5.574 5.147
Debt / Capitalization (A / B) 82% 82% 54% 54% 102%
Adjusted Debt / Adjusted Capitalization (C / D) 94% 94% 85% 90% 100%
Adjusted Net Debt / Adjusted Capitalization (C - 1) / (D) 71% 65% 52% 72% 94%
* LTM
** Aircraft and flight equipment leases of the last twelve months x 7
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…with no major exposure to foreign currency…
Current41%
Long term - 6%
Current24%
Long term10%
Permanent assets19%
Current21%
Long term23%
Current19%
Long term17%
Shareholders' equity20%
Assets Liabilities
R$ 7.1billion R$ 7.1billion
0
20
40
60
80
100%
Balance sheet mix
Permanent assets
Shareholders’ equity
Local currencydenominated
Foreign currencydenominated
BR GAAP
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BR GAAP
Year Loans Lease payable Reorganization of Fokker 100 fleet Debentures Bonds Total % Total
2008 663.276 128.557 14.842 10.825 18.236 835.736 32%2009 30.837 17.081 3.711 0 0 51.629 2%2010 59.717 37.522 16.824 166.667 0 280.730 11%2011 160.247 37.232 12.189 166.667 0 376.335 15%2012 4.755 35.783 0 166.667 0 207.205 8%After 2012 9.203 253.014 0 0 574.290 836.507 32%
928.035 509.189 47.566 510.825 592.526 2.588.141 100%Foreign currency - denominated 837.411 509.189 47.566 0 592.526 1.986.692 77%Local currency - denominated 90.624 0 0 510.825 0 601.449 23%
R$ thousand09.30.2008
…and no leverage in the short term
Breakdown and maturity of financial debt
From the R$ 663 million of our short term loans, 92% are in foreign currency and correspond to pre delivery payments financing due 4Q08 – to be repaid with pre-committed US Ex-Im Bank financing
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We intend to achieve a neutral hedging position due to the growth in our international business
31%
69%
35%
65%
2Q08 3Q080
20
40
60
80
100%
Revenue(Passenger + Cargo)
Dollarexchangerate
DomesticInternational
1.592
62%38%
1.914
62%38%
Approximately 50% of our costs
(including fuel) are exposed to foreign
currencies
Approximately 50% of our costs
(including fuel) are exposed to foreign
currencies
20%
ASK proportion
International(Dollar denominated)Domestic(Real denominated)
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-50%
50%
150%
250%
350%
Stocks performance since follow-on
www.tam.com.br/irwww.tam.com.br/ir
IPOJun/14/2005
Follow-onMar/10/2006
TAMM4 TAMN IBOV DJBR20
Sep/30/2008
92%100%
33%-1%
Average Daily Trade VolumeBOVESPA: R$ 25 millionNYSE: USD 22 million
Average Daily Trade VolumeBOVESPA: R$ 25 millionNYSE: USD 22 million
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2008 Guidance2008 Guidance
2008 has been a positive year
Jan – Sep 2008Jan – Sep 2008
10.2%
50.2% dom72.4% intl
14.2%32.2%
72.1%
-2.2%
Brasília – Buenos AiresRio de Janeiro – MiamiSão Paulo – LimaRio de Janeiro – NYSão Paulo – Orlando
Maintain leadership in both domestic and international markets
ASK growth of
Domestic 14%
International 40%
Average load factor at approximately 70% overall
Reduction of 7% in total CASK ex-fuel in BR GAAP yoy
Three additional international destinations or frequencies in 2008
Domestic market demand growth from 8% to 12% (in RPK terms)
TAMTAM
MarketMarket
29
2009 will be a challenging year
Maintain leadership in both domestic and international markets
ASK growth of
Domestic 8%
International 20%
Average load factor at approximately 70% overall
One additional international destination or frequency in 2009
Domestic market demand growth from 5% to 9% (in RPK terms)
Guidance 2009Guidance 2009
MarketMarket
TAMTAM
30
44
16
101
44
18
104
44
20
110
44
22
113
84
22
115
84
22
117
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
125130
138143
149 151
Total fleet
We are maintaining our fleet plan
B767 Airbus wide-body Airbus narrow-bodyB777
In 2013 we will receive the first 2 A350s, which will
gradually substitute the
A330s
In 2013 we will receive the first 2 A350s, which will
gradually substitute the
A330s
MD11
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To be the preferred airline company
Excellence in Technical-
Operational
Excellence in Service
Excellence in
Management
We signed a commitment
PASSION FOR AVIATIONPASSION FOR AVIATION