Tam Apr 3 Q08 20090115 Eng

32
São Paulo, November 10, 2008 3Q08 3Q08 Results Presentation Results Presentation

Transcript of Tam Apr 3 Q08 20090115 Eng

São Paulo, November 10, 2008

3Q083Q08 Results PresentationResults Presentation

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Information and Projection

This notice may contain estimates for future events. These estimates merely reflect the expectations of the Company’s management, and involve risks and uncertainties. The Company is not responsible for investment operations or decisions taken based on information contained in this communication. These estimates are subject to changes without prior notice.

This material has been prepared by TAM S.A. (“TAM“ or the “Company”) includes certain forward-looking statements that are based principally on TAM’s current expectations and on projections of future events and financial trends that currently affect or might affect TAM’s business, and are not guarantees of future performance. They are based on management’s expectations that involve a number of business risks and uncertainties, any of each could cause actual financial condition and results of operations to differ materially from those set out in TAM’s forward-looking statements. TAM undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forwardlooking statements.

This material is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Likewise it does not give and should not be treated as giving investment advice. It has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein. It should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.

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PreviousPeriod

CurrentPeriod

J F MAM J J ASOND J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J ASOND J FMAM J J A S80859095

100105110115120125130

Domestic Market - Variation(vs previous period)

The domestic market grew 10% from January to September 2008

Source: ANAC

Accum. market growth 2006

12%

Accum. market growth 2005

19%

Accum. market growth 2007

12%

Accum. market growth 2008

10%

20072005 2006 2008

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PreviousPeriod

Market

TAM

J FMAM J J ASOND J FMAM J J ASOND J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J AS40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

International Market - Variation(vs previous period)

The international market (among Brazilian carriers) is recovering and grew 36% …

Source: ANAC

Accum. Marketgrowth 2008

36%

Acum TAM 200641%

Acum TAM 200771%

Acum TAM 200540%

Acum TAM 200844%

Accum. market growth 2005

7%

Accum. market decrease 2006

30%

Accum. market decrease 2007

5%

20072005 2006 2008

5

…with higher growth anticipated for Brazilian carriers due to the unbalance in the bilateral agreements…

Source: ANAC annual report

* estimates

58.2%

41.8%

57.7%

42.3%

66.9%

33.1%

71.2%

28.8%

66.5%

33.5%

2004 2005 2006 2007 Jan - Sep2008*

0

20

40

60

80

100%

% international passenger

BrazilianCarriers

IntlCarriers

6

…observed in many countries, as the example between Brazil and USA

77

107

147

2821

357

10542

Italy

England

Germany

France

Spain

USA

1414

1414

2121

3030

5151

126*126*

150 100 50 0 50 100 150

Weekly Frequencies

* 21 frequencies limited to the cities in the north, northeast and central west regions of Brazil and/or Belo Horizonte

Brazilian Carriers Foreign Carriers

Available space on bilateral Operated by Brazilian Carriers Operated by Foreign Carriers

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We are both domestic and international market leaders

TAM’s Domestic Market Share*TAM’s Domestic Market Share*

Source: ANAC

* RPK – Revenue passenger kilometer

TAM’s International Market Share* – Among Brazilian carriersTAM’s International Market Share* – Among Brazilian carriers

33,0%35,8%

48,0% 48,9% 50,2% 52,4% 52,8%

43,5%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jan - Sep 2008 3Q08 Sep/08

12,0% 14,3%

37,5%

67,5%72,4% 75,8%

82,1%

18,8%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jan - Sep 2008 3Q08 Sep/08

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Increasing our fleetDelivery of 2 A319 and 4 A320 (versus 2Q08)Delivery of 1 B767 and first B777-300ER (versus 2Q08)Redelivery of the entire F100 fleetRedelivery of 1 MD11 (versus 2Q08)

Operational efficiency12.6 block hours per aircraft per day13.1 block hours per aircraft per day. considering only the operating fleetAverage total load factor of 72.4% in 3Q08

Agreements:Increase in TAP’s code share, with flights to Buenos Aires, via São Paulo and Rio de JaneiroBeginning code share with Lufthansa (August 18)Beginning code share with Air Canada (October 07)Entrance in Star Alliance announced (October 07)

3Q08 Highlights (1/3)

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3Q08 Highlights (2/3)

Strengthening of our networkNew nonstop flight to:

Buenos Aires, including from Brasília (August 08)Bariloche and Lima, via São Paulo (August 14 and October 17, respectively)Miami, via Rio de Janeiro (September 19)

ANAC’s approval to new nonstop flights to:New York, via Rio de Janeiro (November 1st) Orlando, via São Paulo (November 21)

Adjustments in TAM Airlines’ operational and administrative structureAwards Received

Honor in 'Biggest and Best' of EXAME’s magazine 35 years ceremonyValor 1,000 as the best Company in the Transportation and Logistics sector

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3Q08 Highlights (3/3)

Adherence to the declaration of "Business Social Responsibility and Human Rights”

Share Buy-back program228.700 thousand shares bought-back

Contract for mobile communications aboard its aircraft

TAM CARGOLargest freight terminal installed in Manaus

New Cargo Terminal Operations installed at Tom Jobim Airport

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Star Alliance

On October 7, we announced our entry into the Star Alliance

Star Alliance is the largest global alliance and today is composed by 22 airline companies from all over the world

After the integration period, our passengers will have a better experience and several benefits as:

1,000 destinations in 170 countries

20 thousand daily frequencies

Luggage to final destination

Faster and easier connections

More than 800 VIP lounges

Possibility of accumulate and redeem points or miles in different loyalty programs

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178200

554

1,214

263

260

813

1,670

3Q07 3Q08

2,146

3,006

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Gross Revenue (R$ M) Domestic passenger revenue grew 38%

RPK increased 17%

ASK increased 17%

International passenger revenue grew 47%

RPK increased 38%

ASK increased 23%

Cargo revenue grew 30%

Other revenue grew 48%

Our gross revenue increased 40%...

Domestic Pax International Pax Cargo Other

40%

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...and total RASK increased 18%...

RASK total ¹ ²

RASK scheduled domestic²

Domestic load factor - %

Yield scheduled domestic³

RASK scheduled international²

International load factor - %

Yield scheduled international³

Yield scheduled international³(USD cents)

3Q073Q07 2Q082Q08 3Q083Q08 3Q08 vs 3Q07

3Q08 vs 3Q07

3Q08 vs 2Q08

3Q08 vs 2Q08

R$ Cents

1 Includes charter. cargo and Other revenues. net of taxes2 Net of taxes3 Gross of taxes

RASK scheduled international² (USD cents)

17.01

15.43

66.3

24.42

12.52

70.8

17.69

9.62

18.40

17.66

68.1

27.23

11.48

73.4

15.64

9.82

20.07

18.24

66.5

28.81

14.85

79.9

18.60

9.72

18.0

18.2

0.1

p.p.

18.0

18.6

9.1

p.p.

5.1

1.0

9.1

3.3

-1.6

p.p.

5.8

29.4

6.5 p.p.

18.9

-1.1

6.81 7.21 7.76 13.9 7.6

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...and the total CASK increased 14%...

CASK

CASK excl-fuel

3Q07 3Q08

16.54

18.91

0

5

10

15

20

Total CASKBR GAAP - R$ cents

3Q08 vs 3Q07

1.2%

14.3%

15

...leading to an increase in spread (RASK-CASK)

3Q07 3Q08

17.0116.54

20.08

18.91

15

17

19

21

RASK/CASK (R$ Cents)BR GAAP

RASKCASK

EBITMargin

Spread

2.8%

0.47

5.8%

1.18

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However, we presented losses in our financial result

*WTI West Texas Intermediate

09.30.2008 09.30.2007

Financial incomeInterest income from financial investments 48.050 65.261Exchange variation 482.358 122.327Financial instrument/gains – FX 75 42.557Financial instrument/gains – WTI*

Realized 24.672Unrealized 28.219

Other 4.818 1.310535.301 284.346

Financial expensesExchange variation -428.884 -146.559Interest expense -111.115 -61.837Financial instrument/losses – FX -1.923 -38.612Financial instrument losses – WTI*

Realized -18.840Unrealized -268.267

Other -7.775 -9.410-836.804 -256.418

Financial result, net -301.503 27.928

Mainly impacted by unrealized

losses in WTI hedging

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All instruments contracted over-the-counter

No deposits of guarantees or margin calls

Counterparties rated as “low credit risk” by the major rating agencies (Standard & Poors, Fitch, and Moody’s)

Our WTI derivative transactions are contracted only for hedging purposes to protect operations...

20082008 20092009 20102010Notional(thousand of barrels)Fair Value (MTM)

2,180 7,200 800

(21,941) (170,276) (17,118)

1Q081Q08 2Q082Q08 3Q083Q08

Volume of contracted transactions (thousand of barrel)

WTI end of period (USD/barrel)

% consumption of the twelve ensuing months

5,390

102

41%

4,390

140

31%

10,180

101

56%

Current SituationCurrent Situation

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…following our policy and corporate governance

Our policy is to hedge from 30% - 80% of the projected fuel consumption in a minimum of 3 and a maximum of 24 months, approved and monitored monthly by board audit and financial committee

Fuel HedgingFuel Hedging

Risk CommitteeRisk Committee

We are committed to the highest standards of corporate governance and concerned with ensuring a high control standard of our processes

Composition: eight executives of the Company from different areasResponsibility: to make Management comfortable to regularly evaluate scenarios, hedge operations adopted and suggest any necessary adjustmentsActivities: to validate policies, approving processes and activities to manage risks involving liquidity, credit, legal, fiscal and operations

specialized in measuring risks and suggesting protection alternatives objectives

to make Management comfortable by creating “risk committees” to permanently evaluate scenarios, confirm the effectiveness of the hedge operations adopted and suggest any necessary adjustments

quality assurance on MTM evaluations

Risk Office (third part)Risk Office (third part)

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In BR GAAP our operating margin was 6%...

Margin over net revenue

BR GAAP

3T07 3T08

49

-113-120

-90

-60

-30

0

30

60

Lucro Líquido - R$ M

3T07 3T08

313

423

0

100

200

300

400

500

EBITDAR - R$ M

35%

15% 15%

3T07 3T08

57

167

0

50

100

150

200

EBIT - R$ M

192%

3%

6%2%

- 4%

20

...the same as in US GAAP

Margin over net revenue

US GAAP

3Q07 3Q08

306

390

0

100

200

300

400

EBITDAR - R$ M

28%

3Q07 3Q08

112

186

0

50

100

150

200

EBIT - R$ M

66%

3Q07 3Q08

143

-475-550

-450

-350

-250

-150

-50

50

150

Net Income - R$ M

15% 14% 5%

6%

7%

- 16%

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We posted loss per share

3Q07 3Q08

0.95

-3.15

Earnings per shareUS GAAP (R$)

3Q07 3Q08

0.32

-0.75

Earnings per shareBR GAAP (R$)

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BR GAAP Leasing IncomeTaxes

Others US GAAP

-113

-535

184-11 -475

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

Net Profit Reconciliation to US GAAP

52 aircrafts are reclassified as capital

leases as per SFAS nº 13

52 aircrafts are reclassified as capital

leases as per SFAS nº 13

The main difference between BR and US GAAP is the accounting treatment of aircraft leasing

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Our balance sheet remains solid…

R$ million - BRGAAP 2008* 2007 2006 2005 2004

Cash (1) 2.105 2.607 2.453 995 297

Short-Term Debt (2) 836 1.005 363 216 204

Long-Term Debt (3) 1.752 1.345 895 425 399

Total Debt (A) = (2) + (3) 2.588 2.350 1.258 641 603

Shareholder's Equity (4) 1.420 1.527 1.449 760 191

Capitalization (B) = (3 + 4) 3.173 2.872 2.344 1.185 590

Aircraft and flight equipment leases** (5) 6.140 5.976 5.032 4.389 4.557

Total Debt Adjusted (C) = (A + 5) 8.729 8.326 6.290 5.030 5.160

Total Capitalization Adjusted (D) = (3 + 4 + 5) 9.313 8.848 7.376 5.574 5.147

Debt / Capitalization (A / B) 82% 82% 54% 54% 102%

Adjusted Debt / Adjusted Capitalization (C / D) 94% 94% 85% 90% 100%

Adjusted Net Debt / Adjusted Capitalization (C - 1) / (D) 71% 65% 52% 72% 94%

* LTM

** Aircraft and flight equipment leases of the last twelve months x 7

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…with no major exposure to foreign currency…

Current41%

Long term - 6%

Current24%

Long term10%

Permanent assets19%

Current21%

Long term23%

Current19%

Long term17%

Shareholders' equity20%

Assets Liabilities

R$ 7.1billion R$ 7.1billion

0

20

40

60

80

100%

Balance sheet mix

Permanent assets

Shareholders’ equity

Local currencydenominated

Foreign currencydenominated

BR GAAP

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BR GAAP

Year Loans Lease payable Reorganization of Fokker 100 fleet Debentures Bonds Total % Total

2008 663.276 128.557 14.842 10.825 18.236 835.736 32%2009 30.837 17.081 3.711 0 0 51.629 2%2010 59.717 37.522 16.824 166.667 0 280.730 11%2011 160.247 37.232 12.189 166.667 0 376.335 15%2012 4.755 35.783 0 166.667 0 207.205 8%After 2012 9.203 253.014 0 0 574.290 836.507 32%

928.035 509.189 47.566 510.825 592.526 2.588.141 100%Foreign currency - denominated 837.411 509.189 47.566 0 592.526 1.986.692 77%Local currency - denominated 90.624 0 0 510.825 0 601.449 23%

R$ thousand09.30.2008

…and no leverage in the short term

Breakdown and maturity of financial debt

From the R$ 663 million of our short term loans, 92% are in foreign currency and correspond to pre delivery payments financing due 4Q08 – to be repaid with pre-committed US Ex-Im Bank financing

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We intend to achieve a neutral hedging position due to the growth in our international business

31%

69%

35%

65%

2Q08 3Q080

20

40

60

80

100%

Revenue(Passenger + Cargo)

Dollarexchangerate

DomesticInternational

1.592

62%38%

1.914

62%38%

Approximately 50% of our costs

(including fuel) are exposed to foreign

currencies

Approximately 50% of our costs

(including fuel) are exposed to foreign

currencies

20%

ASK proportion

International(Dollar denominated)Domestic(Real denominated)

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-50%

50%

150%

250%

350%

Stocks performance since follow-on

www.tam.com.br/irwww.tam.com.br/ir

IPOJun/14/2005

Follow-onMar/10/2006

TAMM4 TAMN IBOV DJBR20

Sep/30/2008

92%100%

33%-1%

Average Daily Trade VolumeBOVESPA: R$ 25 millionNYSE: USD 22 million

Average Daily Trade VolumeBOVESPA: R$ 25 millionNYSE: USD 22 million

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2008 Guidance2008 Guidance

2008 has been a positive year

Jan – Sep 2008Jan – Sep 2008

10.2%

50.2% dom72.4% intl

14.2%32.2%

72.1%

-2.2%

Brasília – Buenos AiresRio de Janeiro – MiamiSão Paulo – LimaRio de Janeiro – NYSão Paulo – Orlando

Maintain leadership in both domestic and international markets

ASK growth of

Domestic 14%

International 40%

Average load factor at approximately 70% overall

Reduction of 7% in total CASK ex-fuel in BR GAAP yoy

Three additional international destinations or frequencies in 2008

Domestic market demand growth from 8% to 12% (in RPK terms)

TAMTAM

MarketMarket

29

2009 will be a challenging year

Maintain leadership in both domestic and international markets

ASK growth of

Domestic 8%

International 20%

Average load factor at approximately 70% overall

One additional international destination or frequency in 2009

Domestic market demand growth from 5% to 9% (in RPK terms)

Guidance 2009Guidance 2009

MarketMarket

TAMTAM

30

44

16

101

44

18

104

44

20

110

44

22

113

84

22

115

84

22

117

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

125130

138143

149 151

Total fleet

We are maintaining our fleet plan

B767 Airbus wide-body Airbus narrow-bodyB777

In 2013 we will receive the first 2 A350s, which will

gradually substitute the

A330s

In 2013 we will receive the first 2 A350s, which will

gradually substitute the

A330s

MD11

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To be the preferred airline company

Excellence in Technical-

Operational

Excellence in Service

Excellence in

Management

We signed a commitment

PASSION FOR AVIATIONPASSION FOR AVIATION

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São Paulo, November

10, 2008

3Q083Q08 ResultsResults

PresentationPresentation