Taiwan Photovoltaic (PV) Industry Overview

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http://industryresearchthis.blogspot.com The presentation provides an overview of the photovoltaic industry in Taiwan. It also includes a Si-Cell Production Capacity Forecast as well as activities in this region. Posted by permission of Dr. Joeng-Shein Chen of Taiwan Photovoltaic Industry Association (TPVIA) Next Taiwan PV Event: PV Power Expo Taiwan 2008 Sept 9, 2008 http://www.pvpowerexpotaiwan.org/PVTAIWAN.var Additional Resource http://industryresearchthis.blogspot.com/

Transcript of Taiwan Photovoltaic (PV) Industry Overview

  • 1. Taiwan PV Industry Overview Dr. Joeng-Shein ChenTaiwan Photovoltaic Industry Association, TPVIAPhotovoltaics Technology Center, ITRI 2008/1/1 14Event, Venue information

2. Outlines RE Resources in Taiwan PV Policy and Strategy PV Industry in Taiwan PV Installation and Incentive Programsin Taiwan Who is TPVIA How Taiwan Can Win ! 2 2008/1/14 Event, Venue information 3. Top 10 Problems in next 50 years Energy () Water () Food () Environment () Poverty () Terrorism & war() Disease () Education () Democracy () Population () Oil Nature GasCoal Uranium 41 yrs 67 yrs 192 yrs 53 yrs Source: Richard Smalley, Rice University2004, BP 3 2008/1/14 Event, Venue information 4. Solar energy : Only RE not from theEarthhttp://www.hubbertpeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm Solar Energy Input (Terawatts=1012W)178,000Reflected to Space Immediately 53,000Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat82,000Used to Evaporate Water (Weather)40,000Wind energy 1,000Captured by Plant Photosynthesis100Total Energy Used by Human Society 13Total Energy Used by US Society2.5Total Human Food Energy0.6 1. ~ 4 2008/1/14 Event, Venue information 5. Global Cell Production Forecast 1. 2006/3 by Goldman Sachs , 2010 will grow up to 4GWpgrowth rate 20% 2. 2007/4 in The 4th Solar Silicon Conference, by PHOTON Consulting 2010 global capacity will achieve 15GWpgrowth rate 60%1600014000 15GWp 1200010GWp10000 8000The 4th Solar Silicon Conference /PHOTON Consulting 2007 .46000 PHOTON Consulting 2006 .10 Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2006 .34GWp 40002.6GWp 2.5GWp 2000 1.9GWp 0 1996 1997 1998199920002001200220032004 20052006e 2007f 2008f 2009f2010f5 2008/1/14SourcePVTC / ITRI(2007/06) Event, Venue information 6. MO38:clpdcww06Rev.1 BP Solar 33 SunPMicrosol International (UAE)MO39:clpdcww06rev.1 (AU)15.0 MW 0.6 %(PH)owerOthKyungdong PV Energy (Korea) )BP tech GinDe The World PV Cell Production (MW/year 2006) 12.5 MW 0.5 % Solers 14.4 MMW 0.8 % lS ar 15.0 MolaE- 62.7.4 MW 1.3 % To29.0 W 0.0.6 %rM n ot20MW 2 MW%ec32.0 MW 6 % % Sharph .5 Shezhen Topray Solar (CH)15.0 0.6.5 % W .31.1 MW Solterra (CH)12.0 0.5 1 10 .4 Ot434.0 MW % Other China52.0 2.1 1.0 % he 479.0 3.1 rsOthers 17.2 %MSo79123.6 MWW lar.0 f unMWIndia 4.9 %JABaoSo253.143.4 MWdi n lar .0% gY 25. MWTaiwan 1.7 %in g0 Mli35.0 W 11.0 % CEE MW . 0 % 177.5 MW G Nanj i ng 1.4 7.1 % Japan KyoceraPV%60.0MW2.4 %China 180.0 MW 927.5 MW381.5 MW 2006 7.1 % Suntech 15.1 % PV Cell36.8 %157.5 MW6.2 %ProductionSanyo US 2,521.8 MW155.5 MWMW % 1.2 % 6.2 % Evergreen Solar13.0 0.5 31.0 MW .9 %201.6 MWers W 0 .0 % MitsubishiOth M8.0 % Schott Solar 13.0 0.522.0 MW 1 %er) 1.1 % Elec. Global Solar2.5 0.1tro pow r 25.6MW 1.4 Europe Other 2.5 0.1(As ola111.0 MW GE BPS 2 8.0 MW % %31.0 1.22.4666.3 MW4.4 %2ICS1. 7 %N 3 5.0 VO MW% W 0.rOCA 26.4 %M Wla.01rld 60 3. .0 M So30 .5M W 1. 0 % do rw larW % i teKaneka MW 0.7 17 o la MW 1 .1 %MW % UnSoQ-Cells.2 %St .7Others 0%% MW rs78 .6 %Solland (NE) 18.0 0.7 Fi1 61.0 MW 2.4 rs 253.1 MWW 2.Schott.0 Ever-Q (DE)15.0 0.6eW118 .0 thMW %0M24 .5 BP Solar (DE)12.3 0.5Oolar 10.0 %51.0 M 27 .0 M Mitsubishi HEL 12.00.5 ot tech 83.0 MW30. Solarwatt (DE)8.0 0.3 att Hitachi5.0 0.2 che Sl 3.3 %lll 40 vo Antec (DE)8.0 0.3 owceynto Other0.5 0.0 waIsofotoan Helios (IT) 5.0 0.2oPhErso Duets PhSc 17.5 0.7Sun Wrth Solar (DE)2.4 0.1 Other10.0 0.4 62008/1/1478.7 3.1 Event, Venue informationPV News April 2007 :Prometheus Institute : partly amended by K.Y. 7. PV Demands Surces: IEA; YOSHINO Consultant Co. Cumulative Installed PV in IEA PVPS CountriesMO42:wwpccominst06MW 3,000 2,863 2,500 a ymn Ger 2,0001,9101,708.5 n 1,5001,421.9 pa a J1,000 624A 479 US500Spain Australia 118.2 70.3019931994 199519961997 1998199920002001200220032004 2005 2006Trends in PV Applications, Survey report of selected IEA countries between 1992 and 2006 Report IEA-PVPS T1-16:2007 7 2008/1/14 Event, Venue information (2007/12) 8. Potential Renewable Energy Capacity in Taiwan Potential capacity Evaluation criteriaSolar PV3,450MWFrom DOI data for 1992~2004, total building roof top projected area ~115,139,400 m2, the estimate is based on a1.15m households3kW 30% installation ratio and each kWp requiring 10 m2 . eachAnnual peak o/p : 1,200 hrWind Power4,800MWConsidering only regions with annual wind speed > 5m/s and wind density > 200W/m2,On-shore : 1,600MW after eliminating restricted zones, current estimate yielded on-shore wind farm potentialOff-shore : 3,200MWof more than 1,600MW.Annual full-load o/p : 2,500 hrOffshore potentialestimate of ~1,200 MW for shallow seabed (5~20m depth), preliminary estimate give ~ 2,000 MW for deeper seabed.Biomass 7.6 MKLOE/yEstimated from bio-crop, cellulose resources and wastes :Bio-crop 2.6 MKLOE/y Bio-crop and cellulose 2.6MKLOE (ex. Natier grass, 145K hectare)Wastes 5.0 MKLOE/y Municipal Wastes 12 mTon Industrial Wastes 4.32 mTon (organic non-toxic waste incl. paper rejects, wastes plastics, ) Bio-gas 88 x 107 m3 (incl. industrial and agricultural waste waters recycling)Geothermal Power generation potentials for shallow reservoirs is estimated to be 600 MWe.Shallow reservoirs600MWePreliminary evaluations on power generation potentials for deep reservoirs is underway (0-3000m) for Ilan-Luodong-Sansing and Tatun area.Deep reservoirs under (3000-10000m) evaluation 8 2008/1/14Event, Venue information 9. Sustainable Energy Development Policies in Taiwan Support economic growth without sacrificing future generations need for further development.maintain a balance of Environmental Protection , Energy Security and Industrial competitiveness . ensuring a stable energy supply through utilization of environmentally friendly clean energy, renewable energy and energy efficiency.EnergySustainableSufficient , stableenvironments and affordableand renewableenergy servicesenergy supply EnvironmentallInnovative technologies y friendlyfor green energy energyindustry utilization High quality and stableresources forEnvironment production Economy Reflecting external cost structure to strengthen economic development 9 2008/1/14 Event, Venue information 10. Strategies for Attaining Renewable Energy Targets With Wind Power, Solar PV and Bio-energy as primary candidates, a focus on R&D and other measures will result in lowering cost and induce private investments, while supplementing promotional efforts on Solar thermal, mini-hydro, geothermal, ocean energy and hydrogen, leading to a broad-based utilization.Wind PowerWith comparable power generation cost to conventional power plants, shall promote rapidinstallation in good wind resources regions. Solar PV Still an expensive form of electricity, but is a high value- added products, shall capitalize on local know-how to establish a competitive industries.Bio-energy Shall follow worldwide trend to quickly develop a viable domestic bio-diesel and bio- ethanol infrastructure to counter a rise in crude oil prices.Geothermal and mini-hydroSlow near-term potential due to eco-issues, will focus on special demos.Ocean and hydrogen energyStill need longer-term R&D.10 2008/1/14Event, Venue information 11. Taiwan Renewable Energy TargetsTarget for Renewable PowerDevelop indigenous/sustainable renewable resources assupplemental power. Utilize this new market and promotional effortsto induce establishment of new energy industries.Target for 2025 is set at 8,450 MW. 2006 2010 2015 2025 MW % MW% MW%MW%1.Hydro1,9115.15.75.14.4 2,168 2,261 2,500 2.Wind Power0.52.63.45.3203.7 9801,480 3,000 3.Solar Power 0.00.10.71.81.631320 1,000 4.Geothermal --- ---0.00.310150 5.Biomass6001.61.91.92.5741850 1,400 6.Fuel Cell--- ---0.10.450200 7.Ocean Energy --- ---0.00.4 1 200Total 2,7163,910 4,972 8,450Share of RE power in national electricity 7.3% 10.3% 11.2% 14.9% generation capacity Note: national electricity generation capacity (excluding self-use power): 2006 37.38GW; 2010 38.28GW; 2015 44.18GW; 2025 56.64 GW 11 2008/1/14 Event, Venue information 12. Taiwan Renewable Energy Industry Development TargetsPV, wind power and biomass have been selected as major sectors.Strategically develop the key technologies which would drive downproduction cost, build up strengths for industry development, andencourage deployment.Sales Volume TargetedPV industry 2006 21.2 Billion NTD 2007 40Billion NTD (50 B) 2008 90Billion NTD 2010 150 Billion NTD 2015 400 Billion NTD Wind Power IndustryBiomass Industry20060.7 Billion NTD 2006 0.03 Billion NTD20103 Billion NTD 20106 Billion NTD2015 20 Billion NTD 2015 20 Billion NTD 12 2008/1/14Event, Venue information 13. Photovoltaic Development History in Taiwan 1980-1990-Mono-crystalline silicon(2 inches), amorphous silicon(ITRI)-Sinonar Amorphous spin-off from ITRI(1987)1991-2000-mono-crystalline silicon(4 inches,1992,ITRI)-Motech founded(2000)2001--Initiate PV promotion program(2001,MOEA)-Blooming solar PV research(2005)-dye-sensitized(2002),thin-film and others(2005)-DelSolar spin-off from ITRI(2004)-3 ingot/wafer, 8 C-Si solar cell(2006/9)-Renewable Energy Act waiting for legislation approval13 2008/1/14Event, Venue information 14. Solar Cell Technologies RoadmapMWp Power generation cost < 7 1000MWp NT$/kWh Establishment of 2.5 generation of non-vacuumpolysilicon materialsprinted solar cell technology 1000 industry High-efficiency concentrating solar 1.5 generation of low-costTechnology Milestonecell system crystalline silicon solar cell 75 Construction of verification technology Commercialization of 3rd0 platform and national generation solar cellstandards Develop flexible organic solar cell R&D of integrated equipment and320MWp 50process of high-efficiency0crystalline and thin film-basedCommercialization of silicon solar cells. Module Verification Technology next 25generation solar cell 1MWp 31MW0 Develop high-efficiencyp silicon-020062010 2015 based thin film 2020cell solar2025 Policy Measures Renewable EnergySet up Fund to subsidize Increasing solar PV installation D