Tackling change: Future-proofing water, agriculture and ...

Tackling changeFuture-proofing water, agriculture, and foodsecurity in an era of climate uncertainty

P. McCornick, V. Smakhtin, L. Bharati, R. Johnston, M. McCartney, F. Sugden, F. Clement and B. McIntyre

Tackling changeFuture-proofing water, agriculture, and food

security in an era of climate uncertainty

P. McCornick, V. Smakhtin, L. Bharati, R. Johnston, M. McCartney, F. Sugden, F. Clement and B. McIntyre

The authors: Peter McCornick is Deputy Director General – Research at the headquarters of the International WaterManagement Institute (IWMI) in Colombo, Sri Lanka; Vladimir Smakhtin is Theme Leader – Water Availability andAccess at IWMI in Colombo, Sri Lanka; Luna Bharati is a Senior Researcher – Hydrology and Water Resources andHead of the Nepal office of IWMI in Kathmandu, Nepal; Robyn Johnston is a Senior Researcher – Water ResourcesPlanner at IWMI in Colombo, Sri Lanka; Matthew McCartney is Principal Researcher – Hydrologist and Head of theSoutheast Asia office of IWMI in Vientiane, Lao PDR; Fraser Sugden is a Researcher – Social Science at the Nepaloffice of IWMI in Kathmandu, Nepal; Floriane Clement is a Researcher – Institutional and Policy Analysis at the Nepaloffice of IWMI in Kathmandu, Nepal; and Beverly McIntyre is a Senior Researcher, Water Management and IWMIrepresentative in Washington, DC, USA.

Acknowledgements: This book draws on the research of numerous IWMI scientists and partners whose invaluablecontribution is gratefully acknowledged.

McCornick, P.; Smakhtin, V.; Bharati, L.; Johnston, R.; McCartney, M.; Sugden, F.; Clement, F.; McIntyre, B. 2013.Tackling change: Future-proofing water, agriculture, and food security in an era of climate uncertainty. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute (IWMI). 36p. doi: 10.5337/2013.213

/ climate change / water resources / water management / water productivity / water governance / water storage /groundwater recharge / aquifers / river basins / irrigation schemes / agriculture / rainfed farming / food security / healthhazards / malaria / soil moisture / gender / women / environmental flows /

ISBN 978-92-9090-776-3

Copyright © 2013 by IWMI. All rights reserved. IWMI encourages the use of its material provided that the organizationis acknowledged and kept informed in all such instances.

Cover image: Faseeh Shams

Writing and design by Scriptoria: www.scriptoria.co.uk

Available online at: http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/Publications/Books/PDF/tackling_change_future-proofing_water_agriculture_and_food_security_in_an_era_of_climate_uncertainty.pdf

The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and FoodSecurity (CCAFS) is a strategic partnership of the CGIAR and the EarthSystem Science Partnership (ESSP). CGIAR is a global research partnershipfor a food secure future. The views expressed in this document cannot be taken to reflect the officialopinions of CGIAR or ESSP.

This work has been undertaken as part of the CGIAR Research Program onWater, Land and Ecosystems. IWMI is a member of the CGIAR Consortiumand leads this program.

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ContentsFuture-proofing water, agriculture, and food security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1Transform water governance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3

Integrate and coordinate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5Give the unheard a voice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11

Revisit water storage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13Bank groundwater . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16Manage aquifer recharge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16Retain soil moisture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18

Produce more food per unit of water . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19Manage variability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20Manage demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21Boost rainfed agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22Tap the potential of women . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22

Assess water resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25Assess risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26

Build resilience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29

Photo: Nana Kofi Acquah

Tackling change: Future-proofing water, agriculture, and food security in an era of climate uncertainty

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Future-proofing water,agriculture, and food security

In 1950 the global population was just over2.5 billion. Now, in 2013, it is around 7 billion.Although population growth is slowing, theworld is projected to have around 9.6 billioninhabitants by 2050. Most of the populationincrease will be in developing countrieswhere food is often scarce, and land andwater are under pressure. To feed the globalpopulation in 2050 the world will have toproduce more food without significantlyexpanding the area of cultivated land and,because of competition between a greaternumber of water users, with less freshwater.On top of land and water constraints, foodproducers face climatic and other changeswhich will affect food production.

There remains great uncertainty as to howclimate change will affect any given locality,but it seems likely that it will have a profoundeffect on water resources. Projected rises inaverage temperature, more extremetemperatures, and changes in precipitationpatterns are likely to alter the amounts anddistribution of rainfall, ice and snow melt, soilmoisture, and river and groundwater flows.

Now and in the future, agriculture and foodsecurity depend on managing water – a finiteresource, but variable in time and space.

Adapting water management to potential futurechanges in climate emphasizes the need to:

� Accept existing climatic variability as a given measure and improve understanding of variability, and improve understanding of the impacts of climate change on variability

� Rethink water storage, emphasizing underground opportunities to minimize the impacts of variability and utilize the storage continuum

� Improve understanding of the role of natural ecosystems in variability

� Improve understanding of how humans influence variability

� Develop and manage water resources fairly – share water, land, and food in a cooperative manner and in a way that does not leave vulnerable groups disproportionately burdened by the impacts of variability

Photo: Matthew McCartney


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Adapting water management to climaticvariability is not something that can be donein isolation. Water underpins sustainabledevelopment. There is broad consensus thatadapting to climate change is best addressedin the context of sustainable development.Depending on local contexts, needs, andinterests there are opportunities for improvingwater management that help adaptation toclimatic and other change, andsimultaneously advance development. Theseopportunities usually integrate and apply thebest and most promising approaches, tools,and technologies to help vulnerable ruralcommunities build resilience and developsustainably.

Change is nothing new. But the people,communities, and societies that cope bestwith change of any kind are resilient and ableto adapt. The more resilient they are, themore they are able to manage climaticvariability, diversify their livelihoods, andreduce risk. Building resilience now will bringbenefits regardless of specifically how andwhen climate change plays out on the ground.

Adapting water management to climate change

Photo: David Brazier


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Transform water governance

Unraveling the multiplicity of interests andissues in water and ensuring equity inaccessing water resources is enormouslychallenging. Social, cultural, governance, andpolitical issues can hamper or advanceadaptation to climate change just as they can

Photo: Faseeh Shams

hamper or advance development. Technicalsolutions by themselves are of no practicalvalue unless they are supported by people withthe power to make policies and to ensure thatpolicies are implemented through appropriategovernance and institutional processes.


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Institutions involved in adapting water management to climate change in Nepal

The institutions governing water in any situation can constrain or advance adaptation toclimate change. To gain a comprehensive understanding of the institutions potentiallyinvolved in adapting water management to climate change in Nepal, IWMI scientistsmapped the many agencies concerned. The Water and Energy Commission Secretariat(WECS), the designated clearinghouse for water and energy issues and coordinatingwater policy, does not currently have formal authority to formulate and implement policy, ordevelop inter-agency plans. Other ministries, such as irrigation, energy, environment,agriculture, and livestock can approve projects without coordinating with WECS. The mapof governance helps understand the complexity of implementing strategies to adapt watermanagement to climate change in Nepal. Although WECS has to involve and convincerelevant ministries before proceeding with policies or plans, the institutional arrangementshamper progress.

Source: Bartlett et al. 2010


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Integrate and coordinate

Improving water governance throughintegrated water resources management iswidely promoted as a critical need throughout the developing world. Realizingsuch approaches has had varying degrees of success, often requiring a pragmaticsolution suited to the particular context.

Nationally

It takes time for governments to establishcoordinating mechanisms for bringing multipleagencies in both the public and privatesectors under one umbrella. In 2005, forexample, the Indian Government produced amaster plan for groundwater recharge.Recharging groundwater is important foradapting water management to current andfuture climatic variability in the country. For

the plan to be successful, however, the majorplayers will need to coordinate their roles andintegrate their actions.

Locally

At the local level, effective adaptationdepends to a large extent on the institutions –formal and informal, local and district – whichplan and manage individual and collectiveaction on water resources. These institutionschannel funds, information, and technologiesinto rural areas and facilitate or impedeaction. The power relations within theseinstitutions, who can participate and who canmake decisions, determine who ultimatelybenefits. Adaptation policies and strategiesapproved at the national level may not be putinto practice at lower levels, or may be putinto practice, but not in the way intended.Water management institutions are often not

Photo: Vladimir Smakhtin


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Multiple players in groundwater in India

The success of the Indian Government's master plan for groundwater recharge willdepend on cooperation among those involved and an integrated strategy.

Source: Shah 2009

tailored to handle dispersed smallholder watermanagement arrangements. Small-scaleprivate irrigation, for example, tends to neithercome under the remit of irrigationdepartments, which tend to deal with large-scale canal irrigation, nor under agriculturaldepartments, which are concerned withrainfed farming.

Basin-wide

The boundaries of river basins transcendadministrative and national boundaries.Worldwide, water management at all scalesincreasingly considers water resources in

basins and watersheds according to naturalboundaries. Yet management decisions andimplementation of interventions are moreoften than not through national administrativearrangements.

Tensions between managing water withinnatural boundaries and managing waterwithin national borders proliferate. Competinginterests – political and economic – betweencountries, while widely deliberated, arechallenging to resolve. A key aspect ofadapting to climate change is that countries intransnational basins plan and work togethermuch more than they have done in the past.


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Lack of integrated planningendangers livelihoods in theMekong Basin

In the Mekong Basin, the growth ofcommercial farming and uncertainty as to how much water will be available asthe climate changes raises deep concernabout how much water will be availablefor maintaining aquatic ecosystems andthe livelihoods of people who depend onthem. A recent IWMI study found that inCambodia and Laos natural ecosystemsbuffer food security. Although riceprovides calories, foods from naturalecosystems provide nutrition – fisheriesprovide 50 percent of the protein – andfoods such as wild fruit and vegetables,frogs, snails, and insects diversify dietsand provide micro-nutrients.

Plans for adaptation need to be integrated so as to safeguard aquaticecosystems. For example, any proposedchanges need to consider the value offish. In some areas of Cambodia thevalue of fish in the rice-fish agriculturalsystem can be higher than the value ofrice. Intensification of rice productioncould negatively impact the fish catchunless measures are taken to manageirrigation and the use of pesticides.

Source: Johnston et al. 2010

One transnational option for the Blue Nile, forexample, is for Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt tocooperate in a scheme to store water in theupper reaches flowing through the highlandsof Ethiopia where evaporation is low. Thiswould reduce the need for storage in LakeNasser, Egypt, where evaporation is high.However, such a scheme requires far morecollaboration between the nations than hasoccurred in the past.

Planning

Planning and managing adaptation programsat the watershed scale need to take localvulnerability, and local culture and socialorganization into account. At this scale, it is inmany cases possible to overcome barriersposed by competing interests and to makeplans that are mutually beneficial. At larger

Managing climate changenecessitates cooperation in theBlue Nile Basin

The Blue Nile is an important sharedresource of Ethiopia, Sudan, and,because it is the main tributary of theNile, Egypt. There is great uncertaintyabout the likely impacts of climate changein the basin. Some models indicate morerainfall and some less. How changes intemperature and rainfall will affect riverflows and, hence, how much water isavailable for irrigation and hydropower iseven less certain.

Under the auspices of the Nile BasinInitiative countries in the basin haveagreed to collaborate. However, there arestill tensions. Formal mechanisms todevelop the basin's water resourcescooperatively are limited. Despite thepotential benefits of cooperation and jointmanagement, countries continue withunilateral plans for development. In theabsence of integrated planning, much ofthe currently planned investment in waterstorage is likely to underperform andintended benefits may not be fullyrealized.

Source: McCartney et al. 2013a


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Assessing the need for water storage

IWMI scientists developed an analytical tool to evaluate the need for water storage and itslikely effectiveness under existing and possible future climate conditions. This has beenapplied in sub-Saharan Africa, the Volta Basin, and the Ethiopian part of the Blue Nile Basin.The tool considers reliability, resilience, and vulnerability, and the economic, social, andenvironmental aspects of water storage options for different areas. The results can be shownin a manner that illustrates the trade-off between the key characteristics of a storage option.

Their analyses showed that throughout sub-Saharan Africa, the greatest need for storagewas in the Sahelian zone, the Horn of Africa, and southern Africa, with local hot spots ofneed in southern Angola, Rwanda, Burundi, and Uganda, as well as in Malawi andMozambique. In Ethiopia and Ghana, the greatest need was not in areas with the leastrainfall as might have been anticipated, but rather in the areas with the highest populationdensities. Based on changes anticipated for a 'middle impact' climate change scenario,the effectiveness of storage will most likely decrease in both the Volta and Blue Nilebasins. The analytical tool provides an initial step in more rigorous approaches toassessing investment in agricultural water storage.

Sources: McCartney and Smakhtin 2010; McCartney et al. 2013b

scales, adaptation planning requires goingbeyond water to consider links to othersectors – it needs to be part of overalldevelopment planning rather than a separateactivity.

Clearly, adaptation options for individuals andcommunities at the local level depend on the

context, such as the particular environment.In many cases though, opening upopportunities for local adaptation needsaction by higher level authorities. This hasimplications for national level adaptationplanning. Government plans that supportbuilding water storage facilities or putting inplace community-managed irrigation systems


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can help rural communities and householdsadapt. In Nepal, for example, wherelivelihoods and the economy depend heavilyon agriculture, planning concentrates onencouraging agricultural practices that areless water intensive, rehabilitating waterinfrastructure, expanding water storage andirrigation, and making water managementmore equitable.

Invest wiselyPlanning investments also needs to takeclimate change into account. Investments canrange from large dams and irrigationschemes, inter- and intra-basin transfer, orreforestation, to water pricing systems andwater management techniques. Newinfrastructure or technologies may bringbenefits, but these benefits may besignificantly less compared to those thatwould accrue in the absence of climatechange. Introducing technologies or buildingnew infrastructure may affect ecosystems ormay increase the risk of water-relateddiseases. Failing to introduce technologies orbuild new infrastructure, however, may alsohave significant implications. Rigorousanalysis of proposed infrastructure ortechnologies helps decision-makers investwisely and avoid unintended consequences.

Weigh up costs and benefitsIn Africa and, to a lesser extent, Asia,insufficient capacity to manage existingclimatic variability lies behind much of theprevailing poverty and food insecurity. Thesecontinents are projected to experience thegreatest negative impacts of climate change.New schemes can help manage climaticvariability now and in the future by, forexample, storing water in reservoirs that canbe used for irrigation during dry periods.Assessment and modeling approaches usedby IWMI enable countries which have limitedplanning capacity to envision the likelyoutcomes of adaptation strategies undervarious scenarios, and to consideralternatives and trade-offs. Models can helpplanners envisage the upstream and

downstream effects of irrigation andhydropower schemes on agriculture,socioeconomics, and the environment underdifferent climate change scenarios.

Avert climate change tipping pointsTipping points are the critical points at whichclimate change will trigger negative impacts.For example, global warming can raisetemperatures to a point where malariaemerges in regions hitherto unaffected. Inthese circumstances, water storage tanksthat might previously have been suitable thenbecome unsuitable unless they are adaptedso that mosquitoes cannot breed in them.The rush to develop water harvesting andstorage for climate change adaptation mayincrease health risks for already vulnerablepeople. Being aware of such tipping points isthe first step towards averting unintendedconsequences.

Photo: Sanjini de Sillva


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To help planners in the Volta Basin envision how irrigation and hydropower schemes mayperform under a 'middle impact' climate change scenario, IWMI researchers used adynamic regional climate model (Climate Change Simulation CCLM), hydrological model(Soil and Water Assessment Tool – SWAT), and a water resource model (Water Evaluationand Planning – WEAP). In this scenario, by 2050, average annual rainfall, mean annualrunoff, and mean groundwater recharge across the basin will all decline. If, as the modelssuggest, average annual rainfall drops by 20 percent, water flowing through the Voltaregion could fall by 24 percent by 2050. This means the hydroelectric power stations thatare planned and being built would generate less electricity than initially planned withoutconsidering climate change. And because the demand for irrigation water will grow, thereservoirs will also struggle to supply what is needed.

Dams and malaria

Adapting to change requires that water be better managed, which, in the less developedregions of the world, includes the development of new storage capacity, both small andlarge. The increase in the prevalence of malaria associated with the development andmanagement of these reservoirs stems from complex interactions between people, theirsocioeconomic situation, pathogens and mosquitoes. The dense populations aroundreservoirs often coincide with high numbers of mosquitoes because of the breedinghabitats created along reservoir shores. A recent study of the Koka Reservoir in centralEthiopia by IWMI and its partners quantified the impact of the dam on malaria. Althoughthe area is known for seasonal malaria, scientists found that there were more cases ofmalaria throughout the year in villages close to the reservoir than in those that werefurther away. Both larval and adult Anopheles mosquitoes were much more abundantnear the reservoir. The Koka Reservoir, by providing suitable breeding sites formosquitoes, particularly in the hoof prints of livestock, increases the risk of malaria forpeople living nearby.

Many dams, both large and small, will be built in Africa in the near future. As well ascreating benefits, these dams will bring costs, including adverse health impacts, of whichmalaria is the most significant. Malaria and other health issues associated with damsneed to be considered in the process of planning and managing dams. Health impactassessments and participatory health impact assessments provide comprehensive,systematic approaches which include health considerations in the development andoperation of dams.

Source: IWMI 2010

Weighing up the costs and benefits of irrigation and hydropower schemesunder climate change in the Volta Basin

Source: McCartney et al. 2012


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Give the unheard a voice

Many water management practices that havepromise for adaptation are grounded in localknowledge. For example, draining ricepaddies in the middle of the growing season,a strategy for using water more efficiently,originates from traditional practice in Chinaand Japan. Rural communities have a wealthof such indigenous knowledge. This intangibleasset has helped them adapt to climaticvariability in the past. It is important to beaware of who contributes and who is unheardin different contexts, and to give them a voicein water governance.

Women

Women know their local water resources:those that are good quality and those that areunsafe, those that fail in dry spells and those

that continue to flow. Women, because manytasks associated with water fall to them, knowhow to use scarce water efficiently. Thisknowledge is seldom recognized, althoughwomen's approaches to managing water areoften locally appropriate, flexible, and usuallysocially and environmentally responsible.Where village headmen and elders takewomen's views into consideration and givethem control over resources, such as in theMarma community in Bangladesh, resourcesare used more efficiently and productively.Instances such as this suggest that women,given opportunities to speak and participate,have much to contribute to climate changeadaptation programs.

The traditional emphasis on elders and menin decision-making not only excludes women,but also discourages them from fullyparticipating even if they are included. Quota

Photo: Nico Sepe


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systems for women on irrigation committeesoften mean women have token, not real,representation. Women are notably absent inthe higher echelons of water management. AnIWMI study of the performance and workingsof water management associations and sluicegate committees showed the almost totaldominance of men despite specific legalprovision for including women.

Nevertheless, even with the odds stackedagainst them, in some cases women haveshown that they can and do adapt to changesbrought about directly and indirectly byclimate change and other drivers. Fisheriescooperatives run by women in Bihar, India,overcame traditional barriers and securedpermanent rights to manage land and waterresources. They became powerful enough tolobby and renew their leases. Capacitybuilding and other non-governmentalorganization activities with women contributedto their empowerment. Strengthening thecapacity of women in managing waterresources is clearly an opportunity for them tobuild resilience and adapt to climate change.

Marginalized groups

Economic and social stratification, includingby wealth and class, and discrimination basedon caste or religion, make it difficult formarginalized groups to voice their concerns,to take part in planning and managementprocesses, and to contribute their particularexpertise. Poverty and lack of voice arepotent barriers to participation.

Grassroots

The lack of voice extends to localgovernments in many rural and vulnerablecommunities. Often, they know little about theclimate adaptation or preparedness programsof higher levels of government or have no'voice' in shaping those programs. There oftenseems to be a major gap between nationalprograms to develop communities' resilienceand what is happening on the ground.

Unequal access to adaptationfunds in Nepal

An IWMI review has shown that womenin Nepal have less access to land,education, information, and socialnetworks than men, so are less resilientthan men and have fewer options foradapting to changes in climate.Indigenous and Dalit women in Nepal aremore vulnerable still, as they face genderand caste discrimination. Although Nepalhas a strategy for targeting adaptationprograms to the vulnerable, such asDalits, women, and disabled people, thisis mainly through groups. However, astudy on 'unequal citizens' found thatDalit men and women have no time to beinvolved in group activities. Groups aredominated by men and women fromhigher castes. This means that althoughthe national climate change adaptationpolicy endeavors to direct adaptationfunds to women and marginalized groups,Dalit men and women, and indigenouscommunities are not accessing thesefunds because group members fromhigher castes control their distribution.

Source: Sugden et al. Forthcoming

Photo: Waterdotorg, Creative Commons


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Revisit water storage

Some of the most promising approaches toadaptation involve reinventing age-oldpractices, such as storing water. Storingwater so that it is available when there wouldnormally be no rain is a way to adapt tovariable rainfall, significantly increaseagricultural productivity, and enhancepeople's well-being. Water storage anddistribution systems, which store water inrainy seasons for use in dry seasons andtransfer water from areas where it isabundant to areas where it is scarce, helpmanage water deficits due to changes inrainfall or flow patterns.

Reservoirs and large dams tend to dominatecurrent thinking about storing water. Thereare, however, a wide range of options forstoring water, such as in natural wetlands,

groundwater aquifers, ponds, and smalltanks. Flexible options for storing water areamong the most practical, immediate, andcost-effective responses to existing variabilityand future climate-induced water scarcity.Much adaptation can be done on a smallscale. Covering rooftop water tanks toreduce evaporation when temperatures risesaves water and makes it available forirrigation of kitchen gardens or homesteadplots. In the Indira Gandhi Canal system inIndia, the Rajasthan Government issubsidizing farmers to make farm ponds.These are filled from the canal once amonth. Farmers can then draw water fromthe ponds when needed. These kinds ofmeasures can be combined with other water-saving technologies such as micro-irrigation.

Photo: Ravinder Malik


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Water storage as an adaptation strategy to reduce climate vulnerability

Water storage can play a key role in both sustainable development and adaptation to climatechange. Storing water may enhance both water security and agricultural productivity.However, all kinds of water storage are also potentially vulnerable to changes in climate. Withless rainfall, ponds and tanks may not fill or may fill less frequently, so that they may not beable to provide enough water for irrigation.

Source: McCartney and Smakhtin 2010

Photo: P. Casier (CGIAR)


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Options for storing water at various scales

IWMI studies examine a wide range of options for storing water in different social andecological circumstances and at different scales. Scientists investigate how much water abasin can store under current and increasing variability, types of storage for differentsituations, types of storage that will provide water when it is needed, and the advantages anddisadvantages of types and combinations of water storage.

All storage options have costs as well as benefits and in any given location the extent towhich a particular type will provide a reliable water supply will be different. Any water storagestructure – from a small tank to a large dam – will have an effect on the natural system inwhich it lies. Arrangements that combine several kinds of water storage are likely to be moredependable than those based on a single type. There will rarely be an ideal combination and,in most instances, there will be trade-offs. It is important to look for ways to store wateracross the continuum from small to large scales and to use complementary water-savingtechnologies and practices.

Source: McCartney and Smakhtin 2010

Photo: Sajjad Ali Qureshi


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Bank groundwater

Storing water underground is underused.Adaptive strategies, such as allowing shallowgroundwater systems to fill in the wet seasonand drawing on the water to irrigate crops inthe dry season, do not need large-scaleinfrastructure. Storing and transferring waterin this way can in most years provide a fewextra weeks of irrigation water. The IndianCentral Ground Water Board estimated thatonly 10 percent of India's annual precipitationgoes to naturally replenish groundwater. IWMIstudies show that by encouraging the millionsof farmers, households, and communitieswho have ponds and wells to adapt them sothat they feed groundwater systems in therainy season, much more precipitation couldbe saved in the ground and preventgroundwater levels falling. A reliable supply ofgroundwater would enable farmers to copebetter with climatic variability. Farmers arelikely to buy in to such schemes becausethey value having direct access togroundwater when they need it. Groundwaterbanking helps ensure that farmers andpastoralists have sufficient, reliable suppliesof water under increasingly variable andsevere drought conditions.

Manage aquifer recharge

In many cases, adaptation measures toreduce the vulnerability of groundwater toclimatic change are the same as thoseneeded to deal with issues such as over-allocation or unsustainable withdrawals ofgroundwater, or floods. Managed aquiferrecharge (MAR) cuts losses from evaporation,stores water for use in dry years, and canlessen flooding in downstream areas. In dryclimates MAR is increasingly common asshallow aquifers are often widespread and thecosts can be relatively low, but it also haspotential in humid regions.

Resurrecting traditional water storage in Sri Lanka

As water resources and agriculture are important for future food security in Sri Lanka, the government decided to restore the ancient tank storage system. EarlySri Lankan kingdoms used large above-ground tanks to collect and store rainwater.Farmers used the water stored in this way to irrigate their crops in dry periods. Thismeant they could draw less water from wells, and so prevent them from drying up.

Restoring the water storage system will provide irrigation water during droughts andstore excess water during rainy periods. Together with other measures, such asrainwater harvesting, sustainable development of groundwater, reusing wastewater,and supporting farmers to adopt micro-irrigation technologies, this will mean farmerswill be better able to cope with existing and future variability in water supplies.

Source: Eriyagama et al. 2010

Photo: Joe Ronzio


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Potential for harnessing floods for irrigation in the Chao Phraya Basin,Thailand

IWMI scientists investigated whethercapturing excess runoff in the upstreamreaches of the Chao Phraya Basin couldavert flooding in the lower reaches. Theyfound that peak flow above a certain levelcould be harvested about once in fouryears and used to recharge shallowalluvial aquifers over about 200 squarekilometers upstream of flood-prone areas.Trapping peak flows in this way wouldreduce the severity and thesocioeconomic effects of flooding, butwould not significantly affect existing largeor medium-sized reservoirs, or the Gulf ofThailand and deltaic ecosystems.Smallholder farmers in rainfed areascould use the water captured in aquifersto grow cash crops in the dry seasonwithout unduly compromising thedemands of existing water users.

Such a scheme would be a way ofadapting the flood-prone Chao PhrayaBasin to both existing and future climatevariability. IWMI scientists are currentlylooking at the potential for harnessingfloods for irrigation in other large basinsacross Asia.

Source: Pavelic et al. 2012b

Photo: Akiça Bahri


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Soil and water conservation strategies for adapting to climate change

In the West Seti Basin, Nepal, it is difficult to draw conclusions regarding future precipitationand flow trends resulting from climate change. A recent IWMI study evaluated various watermanagement strategies: afforesting degraded land, on-farm conservation, infiltration ponds,and small reservoirs. Combining all the strategies effectively reduced surface runoff andincreased percolation, thus making more water available in the dry season.

Combining strategies for rehabilitating degraded land and water resources is also anadaptation strategy in drylands. For example, applying phosphogypsum, a calciumsupplement, to magnesium-affected soils can save 200 liters of water for each kilogram ofcotton produced. Such water savings, when adopted on a large scale, could be importantadaptation measures in dry regions where land degradation and the deterioration of waterquality are widespread.

Sources: Gurung et al. 2013; Qadir et al. 2013

Retain soil moisture

Water held in the soil is crucial for plantgrowth. However, at any given locality, thesoil moisture is limited and is quicklydepleted by evapotranspiration. Varioustried-and-tested field-scale techniques –widely referred to as soil and waterconservation – can improve infiltration andretain soil moisture, thus stabilizing andimproving crop yields and using rainfall moreeffectively. The most promising techniquesinclude deep tillage, reduced tillage, zerotillage, and various types of planting basins.

Measures to improve soil moisture content at a small scale can also boost production orbring environmental benefits. Globally, around75 percent of crops are rainfed, so farmingpractices that help retain sufficient soilmoisture are important adaptation strategieswhere irrigation is not technically oreconomically feasible. For example, irrigationis often not feasible in the Laotian highlands ofthe Mekong Basin, where population growth isdriving the change from shifting cultivation tomore intensive cropping. Here, conservationfarming, rainwater harvesting, and storingrunoff are practical adaptation tactics.

Photo: Joe Ronzio


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Produce more food per unit of water

Given that globally agriculture accounts for70–80 percent of freshwater use, competitionfor water among agricultural and other waterusers will be an issue for years to come inmany countries. The degree of competitionwill depend on geography and scale, andfactors such as urbanization, changingdemands for food, industrial development,and the relative scarcity of water in aparticular season. Over the next 40 years,farmers will have to find ways to produce60–70 percent more to feed the growingglobal population. They will have to do thiswhile their share of global freshwater shrinksand while adapting to a progressivelychanging climate. This means making eachunit of water produce more.

Poverty and food insecurity are generallyhighest where water productivity is lowest.

Increasing water productivity is an effectiveway to intensify agricultural production,improve community resilience, and reduceenvironmental degradation. There is aconsiderable body of knowledge on thechanges in agricultural systems and watermanagement needed to safeguard andboost agricultural production. In SoutheastAsia and Africa, farmers who have adoptedthe 'system of rice intensification' not onlyuse less water because they irrigateintermittently instead of flooding paddy fieldscontinuously, but also raise yields andbenefit the environment. Nevertheless,adoption of such technologies often involvestrade-offs. In this case, growing rice moreintensively requires more labor, moreweeding, and more attention to watermanagement. There are very few completelywin-win solutions.

Photo: Neil Palmer


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Regional opportunities to future-proof food security

Region Climate change effect on food security Adaptation opportunitiesIndus-Ganges Basin

Karkheh Basin

Limpopo Basin

Mekong Basin

Niger Basin

Nile Basin

Yellow River Basin

May boost or reduce food security depending on theimpact of warming on evapotranspiration. Changesseasonality of flow as snow melts earlier

May reduce food security because of significantwarming

May reduce food security because of lower rainfallcoupled with warming. Will depend on seasonality ofchange

Likely little impact regarding warming and rainfall, butmay be affected by flooding and rising sea level

Possible improvement because of wetting,depending on impact of warming and also onseasonality of change

Variable from north to south, with considerableuncertainty

May improve because of higher temperatures whichextend the growing season and because of morerainfall, but depends upon seasonality of change

Store winter flows and manage groundwaterrecharge to supply dry-season irrigation

Industrialize and diversify livelihoodsStore water for irrigation where self-sufficiencyis important

Diversify livelihoods, harvest and storerainwater

Manage storm flow, diversify livelihoods,manage water quality

Reduce impacts of rainfall shocks andseasonality by harvesting rainwater, storingwater, exploiting groundwater, and setting upearly warning systems

Reduce impacts of rainfall shocks andseasonality by harvesting rainwater, seasonallivestock migration

Diversify livelihoodsManage seasonal and inter-annual variabilityby harvesting rainwater, storing water, andrecharging aquifers

Source: Mulligan et al. 2011

Manage variability

Regardless of national plans, policies, andstrategies, farmers adapt at the local leveleven though in many cases they have littleexternal support. Farmers have always livedwith climate variability and have copingstrategies that they can build on to adapt toclimate change. They already deal withvariations between seasons, and rainscoming earlier or later than usual and lastingfor shorter or longer periods. Followingseveral years of low rainfall, farmers in theUpper Bhima River Basin in South-WestIndia are already shifting from thirstysugarcane to less thirsty soybean, anadaptation to water scarcity that also givesthem a better return. In diversifying theircropping system by planting vegetables aswell as rice to adapt to urbanization anddeveloping markets, rice farmers on theoutskirts of towns and cities in SoutheastAsia are producing more food per unit of

water and at the same time are becomingmore resilient to climate change.

IWMI and other institutions have developed awide range of technologies to build on farmersexisting strategies and practices to deal withclimatic variability. Combining tactics such asgrowing a greater variety of crops, growingcrops that are more drought resistant or needless water at critical times, installing micro-irrigation, and constructing small ponds ortanks decrease the risk of crop failure, raiseoverall farm yields, and build resilience tochanging conditions. In Madhya Pradesh,incomes of farmers who constructed on-farmponds to irrigate pulses and wheat have risenby more than 70 percent. In Tanzania, half ofthe dry-season cash incomes of smallholderscome from growing irrigated vegetables. InZambia, the 20 percent of smallholders whocultivate vegetables in the dry season byirrigating on a small scale earn 35 percentmore than those who do not.


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Rethinking agriculture: helpingfarmers manage variability andreduce risk

� Improve water productivity� Diversify production (e.g. mixed crops,

livestock, aquaculture)� Change cropping systems to less

thirsty crops� Improve water-use efficiency (e.g.

drip or sprinklers to replace flood irrigation)

� Encourage small-scale affordable irrigation technologies and water management practices

� Re-invent traditional water management practices

� Diversify water storage (e.g. ponds, small tanks, reservoirs)

� Provide marketing support (e.g. access, transparency) and infrastructure (e.g. roads, electricity, telecommunications)

� Promote broad-based agricultural development that encourages off-farm rural opportunities and enterprises to supplement agricultural income

� Secure tenure for land, water rights, and access rights for common propertyforests, wetlands, rivers, and lakes

� Shape access to resources and services (e.g. extension, climate information services) supporting adaptation to take account of social factors (e.g. gender, caste, class) that affect vulnerability

� Develop systems to promote cooperation on water

� Improve performance and flexibility of public irrigation schemes


Manage demand

While farmers can be helped to adapt toclimate variability and change at local level,the authority to plan and approve basin-wideprojects, such as diverting water fromirrigation to preserve the environment andbenefit from ecosystem services, may lie inpolitical or other spheres. Decision-makersneed to understand the trade-offs, forexample the benefits forgone by reallocatingwater from canal irrigation to environmentalflows under different water allocationschemes and climate change scenarios. Thisunderstanding can help them managedemand.

Reforming irrigation management is a viableoption for raising water productivity in manycountries. Across the Mekong Basin,countries are building and planning largeirrigation schemes. Meanwhile, existing publicirrigation schemes are often inappropriatelydesigned, and perform well below theirpotential because of the way they areoperated and maintained. In Tanzania,community-managed irrigation schemes areboosting incomes and yields to the sameextent as government-managed irrigationschemes, but at a lower cost. More food canbe produced per unit of water by adaptingmanagement practices in irrigated agricultureto deal with uncertain rainfall now and in thefuture.



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Boost rainfed agriculture

Sixty percent of the world's food is producedon rainfed cropland. Supplemental irrigation –irrigation applied only at the critical stages ofcrop growth – combined with better soil,nutrient, and crop management can morethan double water productivity and yields insmall-scale rainfed agriculture. Majorincreases in production in the Mekong delta,for example, have been achieved bysupplemental irrigation in the dry season.Simple water-lifting equipment – powered by

fossil fuels, electricity, the sun, people oranimals – and micro-irrigation techniques,ranging from clay pots to drippers, can alsodramatically boost the ability to cope withclimatic variability, and can have a profoundeffect on agricultural productivity. Dry-seasonirrigation of rice could improve yields between70 percent and 300 percent across sub-Saharan Africa.

These kinds of approaches to boost rainfedproduction at local levels improve resilienceand reduce risks for farmers andcommunities. The AgWater Solutions Project,an IWMI-led partnership, has providedpractical recommendations and tools forgovernments, the private sector, donors, andorganizations to support farmer-led small-scale irrigation initiatives in sub-SaharanAfrica.

Tap the potential of women

Women comprise, on average, 43 percent ofthe agricultural labor force in developingcountries. Female farmers produce less thanmale farmers, not because they are lessefficient as farmers, but because they haveless access than men to productive resourcesand opportunities. Governments are reluctantto change property rights, citizenship laws,and access to credit in ways that would openup opportunities for women. Economicstratification at the household level is critically

Understanding the trade-offsbetween allocations forenvironment flows and allocationsfor irrigation in the Upper GangaBasin

A recent IWMI study examined the trade-offs between allocations forenvironmental flows and canal irrigationin the Upper Ganga Basin (UGB) underchanging climate conditions. The studyassessed the marginal increase andmarginal decrease in the value of cropproduction within and outside the UGBfor changes in the volume of surfaceirrigation. The assessment showed thateven if canal irrigation was cut by a largepercentage, it would make very littledifference. This is because groundwateraccounts for six times more irrigationthan canal water. In the UGB, agricultureis the largest water user. Land and waterproductivity are very low. Improvingwater management, reducing water useby changing to low water-use crops, andintroducing drips or sprinkler systemswhich irrigate more efficiently couldeffectively compensate for water divertedfrom canals for environmental flows.

Source: Bharati et al. 2012

Photo: Sanjini de Silva


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Opportunities for gender-sensitivestrategies to respond to climatechange

Mainstream gender perspectives into national policies, action plans, and other measures on sustainable development and climate change

Carry out systematic gender analysis, collect and use sex disaggregated data, establish gender-sensitive indicators and benchmarks

Develop practical tools to support increased attention to gender perspectives

Ensure consultation with and participation of women in climate change initiatives

Strengthen women's groups and networks

Source: Sugden 2008

important in shaping adaptation options, inparticular regarding land tenure. The2010–2011 FAO State of Food and Agriculturereport, Women in agriculture: closing thegender gap for development, showed that ifwomen had the same access to productiveresources as men, they could increase yieldson their farms by 20–30 percent. This couldraise total agricultural output in developingcountries by 2.5–4 percent.

In Bangladesh, Nepal, and India the rules andregulations that deprive women of rights toland and other resources, and formal andcustomary laws that assign assets andresponsibilities to men means they are poorlyplaced to adapt to changes in climate. Thegender division of work characteristic ofpurdah sometimes prevents Bangladeshiwomen growing crops even on land owned bythe family.

Educating both men and women will boosttheir capacity to raise agricultural productionand adapt to climate change. In India, men's

Photo: Jim Holmes


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Migration spurs women to adapt

Studies in the Khulna, Jamalpur, andBandarban districts of Bangladeshattributed an increase in the involvementof women in agriculture to male migrationdriven by climate change. Women wereadapting to the absence of men by havingto spend more hours in the fields. Intaking on the burden of more agriculturalwork, women also gained more accessand control over crops and inputs,although purchases of inputs are stilllargely controlled by men.

Source: Sugden et al. Forthcoming

and women's education levels and literacywere found to affect their access toinformation on the weather. Since womengenerally receive less education and havelimited access to information andopportunities, they are less likely than men tobe able to acquire new food production skills.Organizers of farmer groups assume thatwomen are 'less educated' and thus are notsuitable candidates for training programs.Most of the women's contact is with non-governmental organizations. Bothgovernment and non-governmental ruraldevelopment programs that target women lagbehind the realities of change and still focuson traditional female sectors.

Social and cultural attitudes are slow tochange. In some countries, the groundswellof change in attitudes to gender, caste, andclass is a long way off, but here and therepositive changes are emerging. Incommunities where changing conditions,climatic or otherwise, have led men tomigrate in search of work, women have beenforced to become more involved in traditionalmale domains. The exodus of men from ruralareas has steered women into taking up theirhusbands' responsibilities, such as in the

engineering aspects of irrigation or negotiatingaccess to canal and groundwater. Morechange along these lines will be important foradapting to change. Raising awareness ofchanges that are happening and why, andeducating and informing both men andwomen will help. The key decision-makers in agriculture in the future will increasingly be women.



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Assess water resources

In many parts of the world there are no long-term climatic data or records of river flows. Inother parts the data may exist, but may bedispersed and difficult to access. Thisdeficiency in data and information is not likelyto be resolved soon and adds to theuncertainties of climate change projections.Decision-makers are faced with projectionsthat take historical trends and extend them toa range of possible futures. The uncertainty atthe global scale – on the scale of the changesand even on the direction of change – isconsiderable. Moreover, global models are ata scale and resolution difficult for waterresources managers at local, national, orregional levels to work with.

IWMI takes models produced by theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC), downscales them to the watershedand river basin level, and modelstemperature, precipitation, hydrological, andwater resources with the most reliable localdata and information available. Even at thesescales there are uncertainties as to what willhappen with climate change, more so whenthere are gaps in the data or the data forbaselines are unreliable. The models providean indication of possible changes underspecific scenarios rather than define what willactually happen in reality. But, where differentmodels point to approximately the sametrends, they provide a best bet on the likelyhigher or lower limits of change. This meansdecision-makers can focus on what is mostlikely to happen, rather than on what is stillvery unclear, in order to make theiragricultural systems more climate-resilient.

Photo: Petterik Wiggers


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Assessments are a first step in developingequitable and sustainable adaptationstrategies. IWMI scientists use a range ofcomputer models – temperature, precipitation,hydrological, and water resources – to assesshow current climatic variability affects waterresources and how climate change mightaffect water resources in the future. A recentIWMI study of rainfed rice in the lowerMekong showed that even when data arelimited, reasonable assessments can be doneat the basin or regional scale using simplemodels like AquaCrop.

Analytical tools help decision-makers tounderstand the costs and benefits involved inproposed adaptation measures. They presentscenarios that allow stakeholders anddecision-makers to envision the effects ofclimate change on water resources. In theMekong Basin, analyses showed that therewas no observed increase or decrease inrainfall, and that temperature is rising. Theconstruction of large storage dams onMekong tributaries for generating hydroelectricity is likely to have considerably moreimpact on river flow regimes than climatechange, at least for the foreseeable future.The most significant effect of climate changewould be the projected rise in sea levelbecause it would transform farming in thedelta region which is the most productive partof the Mekong Basin.

Assess risk

Analytical tools can also be used to identifythe communities and areas – particularlythose that are major food producers – whichare likely to be most vulnerable to climatechange. Governments can then directadaptation efforts to areas most at risk.

Assessments can be geared to helping targetadaptation programs to areas most at risk. An IWMI study ranked basins andwatersheds in the Middle and High Mountainsof Nepal according to their vulnerability toclimate change. Based on this assessment,

Shaping adaptation to uncertaintyin Sri Lanka

Faced with a high degree of uncertaintyabout the future climate – somepredictions from climate models suggestprecipitation will be above normal andothers suggest it will be below normal –the Government of Sri Lanka chose totackle variability rather than projectedupward or downward trends. Thegovernment took a broad approach,looking at the climate models, and thecapabilities and vulnerabilities of farmers.To make agriculture more climate-resilientthe government will work with farmers toresurrect traditional ways of dealing with avariable climate. This tactic will helpprepare farmers for changing growingconditions in the near future and in thelonger term.


the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and theDepartment of Soil Conservation andWatershed Management are launching a pilotprogram to build climate resilience in the mostvulnerable areas. Measures include diggingfarm ponds, terracing, and building checkdams for storing water. IWMI is working withADB on monitoring the impact of theseinterventions.

IWMI research on vulnerability takes intoaccount, for example, socioeconomic factors,infrastructure, and technologies in use as wellas existing and projected climate variability.Planning to address hot spots of vulnerabilityidentified in this way is more cost-effectivethan a 'one-size-fits-all' approach. Newtechnologies, improved climate informationservices, and safety nets can helpcommunities adapt to risks associated withincreasing climate variability and extremeevents.


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Identifying areas of risk in Sri Lanka

IWMI scientists developed an index to identify hot spots of vulnerability to climate changein Sri Lanka. They found that typical farming districts are more vulnerable than the rest ofthe country because they rely heavily on primary agriculture. Poor infrastructure, fewassets, and exposure to natural hazards mean farming communities are least able toadapt and are most likely to suffer the adverse impacts of climate change. The Sri LankaGovernment used the results of the study and applied them at district level as part of thenational adaptation plan of action.


Degree of risk to countries in the Ganges Basin from climate change

Risk India Nepal BangladeshRise in temperature

Glacier retreat

Frequent floods

Frequent droughts

Rise in sea level

High

High

High

High

Modest

Very high

High

High

High in some areas

-

High

-

Very high

High in some areas

Very high

Source: Hosterman et al. 2012

Photo: Nico Sepe


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Build resilience

Accepting and managing climatic variabilitynow is the best bet for managing climatic andother changes in the future. Improving watermanagement and water productivity, andinvolving farmers, communities, policy-makers, the private sector, and civil societyare important for encouraging theadjustments in individual behavior,technology, institutions, and agricultural andsocioeconomic systems needed to adapt to avariable and changing climate.

In the short-term, adaptation in many agro-economies is likely to involve the uptake ofimproved agricultural and water managementtechnologies. In the long term, however,diversifying sources of income is likely tobecome the main adaptation strategy. Trendsin migration to urban centers, off-farmemployment, remittances from abroad, andnew businesses that capitalize on advancesin information technology and otherinfrastructure, signal that adaptation tochanges in climate and other circumstancesis already underway. Governments could helpmen, women, and communities adapt to

Sustainable developmentopportunities to build resilience

� Provide secure tenure to land and water rights, and access to common property forests, wetlands, rivers, and lakes

� Diversify to spread risk� Improve access to markets, and

improve their transparency and competitiveness

� Provide financial safety nets (credit, crop insurance, and crop mortgages) to mitigate risk

� Develop emergency food and nutrition programs

� Develop disaster plans for floods, cyclones, and drought


changing circumstances, including morevariable and extreme climate, by deliveringpublic services, such as sanitation, drinkingwater, and information about agriculture,livestock, and fisheries, more effectively.

Taking a sustainable development approachto adaptation addresses vulnerability, ratherthan just climate change. Promoting broad-based agricultural development to liftresource-poor rural communities out ofpoverty is probably the most effectiveadaptation strategy. The sustainabledevelopment approach builds resilience andthe ability to cope with climatic variability andunforeseen circumstances both in the presentand in the future. For many communities,adaptation and sustainable development willbe one and the same. As incomes,livelihoods, and well-being improve, so willresilience.

Photo: Karen Conniff


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International Water Management Institute (IWMI)127 Sunil Mawatha, Pelawatte, Battaramulla, Colombo, Sri LankaTelephone: +94 11 288 0000 Fax: +94 11 278 6854Email: [email protected]: www.iwmi.org

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