Table of Contents Executive Summary .................................................................. 3 

1. Background: .......................................................................... 6 

2. The market structure: ............................................................ 9 

2.1 Local assemblers: ............................................................ 9 

2.2 Larger assemblers: .......................................................... 9 

2.3 Woreda retailers/wholesellers: ........................................ 9 

2.4 Cooperatives/unions: ..................................................... 10 

2.5 Wholesalers: .................................................................. 10 

3. Price analysis....................................................................... 12 

3.1 Barley ............................................................................ 12 

3.2 Wheat ............................................................................ 15 

3.3 Teff: ............................................................................... 16 

3.4 Maize:............................................................................ 18 

3.5 Pulses ............................................................................ 20 

4. Conclusion .......................................................................... 23 

3

Agricultural prices data collection and dissemination activities

Executive Summary Market information is of vital importance for farmers engaged in market oriented production. Farmers usually lose from spatial and temporal price variations due to lack of timely access to such changing information. Due to this fact the project is collecting weekly price data on major farm products in each woreda. The price so collected is disseminated through farm business schools, multipurpose cooperatives and development centers to farmers. Further it is stored for analysis and reference at project office. This is the first analytical report since the data collection began in October 2007. It shows price movements for major grains in the project area over the last two years. The analysis also briefly summarizes the market structure existing in the local grain market and its linkages to central markets. There are many market participants in the market for grain. This includes both the formal and informal participants. Rural retailers, Assemblers, medium level traders, large traders, Primary cooperatives, Unions, processors are all included in grain marketing. Exporters are also included through their agents for oil crops. There are also dealers who mediate between buyers and sellers, especially in times of shortage or under fierce competition between different buyers. These different middlemen operates in six different market channels between the producer and the consumer ( Page 6). This price analysis covers the period from October 2007 to October 2009. It coincides with the general price rise in the country and the soaring cereal price for grains in 2008.

4

Thus sharp price variations have been observed as is indicated in the analysis. In 2008 price moved to its highest level from March 2008 to September 2008.Price for barley and wheat showed an average increase of 150% from October 2007 to August-September 2008. Unlike the other production years, price of cereals did not fall at harvest time, rather it showed gradual rise followed by sharp increase from March 2008 until August-September. Following the 2009 harvest price fell to an average level of 35% until October 2009. Price of white and red teff rose to the highest level of 980 and 892 Birr respectively in September 2008. Next April they fell to 848 and 654 Birr respectively. This was followed by more stable movements until October 2009. Pulses are domestically used and are also exported. The major pulse crops are faba beans and field peas in the area. There are two types of both; white and shiro type. The shiro types are included in the weakly market survey. Here the price rise was is less pronounced as compared to the other crops. For faba beans price increased from 320 birr to 590 Birr per quintal (October 2007 – August 2008). This was followed by reduction of price to 482.00 Birr in December 2008. Similar variation was also observed for peas. Price increased by 96% from January to September, 2008. This was followed by a reduction of 25% following the harvest season.

4

Thus sharp price variations have been observed as is indicated in the analysis. In 2008 price moved to its highest level from March 2008 to September 2008.Price for barley and wheat showed an average increase of 150% from October 2007 to August-September 2008. Unlike the other production years, price of cereals did not fall at harvest time, rather it showed gradual rise followed by sharp increase from March 2008 until August-September. Following the 2009 harvest price fell to an average level of 35% until October 2009. Price of white and red teff rose to the highest level of 980 and 892 Birr respectively in September 2008. Next April they fell to 848 and 654 Birr respectively. This was followed by more stable movements until October 2009. Pulses are domestically used and are also exported. The major pulse crops are faba beans and field peas in the area. There are two types of both; white and shiro type. The shiro types are included in the weakly market survey. Here the price rise was is less pronounced as compared to the other crops. For faba beans price increased from 320 birr to 590 Birr per quintal (October 2007 – August 2008). This was followed by reduction of price to 482.00 Birr in December 2008. Similar variation was also observed for peas. Price increased by 96% from January to September, 2008. This was followed by a reduction of 25% following the harvest season.

5

The total price rise from January to September was 133 percent for wheat, 100 % for barley and teff. The rise was more pronounced for maize which is 160 percent. Pulse and oil crops also followed the same trend. In conclusion this information is provided to provide stakeholders with information on how prices for grain changed over the months in relation to the price surge observed in 2008. In 2008 price moved to its highest level from March 2008 to September 2008. The total price rise from January to September was 133 percent for wheat, 100 % for barley and teff. The rise was more pronounced for maize which is 160 percent. Pulse and oil crops also followed the same trend. The fall also followed the same trend in reverse direction. From the highest level in September to May/June the total fall is about 40%. The decrease followed the onset of the 2008 harvest and there is still a decreasing trend except Teff. Price of white and red teff fell by 26 and 13 percent respectively. Also there is large seasonal variation for all crops. These seasonal variations affect farmers’ income and makes planning more difficult at household level. There also pronounced spatial variations within short distance indicating the grain market inefficiencies in the rural areas. Investigation to such inefficiencies requires more detailed analysis on the market structure and costs. The next publication will provide information on the current market situation, also including horticultural crops.

6

1. Background: The objective of the crop diversification and market development project is promotion of economic growth in rural areas through strengthening commercialization of small farms in areas with recognized market potential, in support to the Government’s effort for Accelerated and Sustainable Development Programme to end Poverty. Provision of market support services is one of the areas where the project is actively involved through its agribusiness and marketing activities to enhance the farmers’ competitiveness in the market. Market information on farm products, inputs and services is being provided to farmers under the project. Towards this end data has been collected from woreda market centers on major farm products in each woreda. The collection center is Asella, Bokoji, Kersa, Etaya, and Sabure for cereals and pulses. Fruits and vegetables are also covered in the lowlwnd woredas of Dodota and Zwai. A prior assessment was made on farmers information needs, sources of information and facilities available to farmers on prices of farm products. The findings indicate that some woreda Agricultural and Rural Development Offices and Ethiopian Agricultural Research Institute, Kulumsa center collect prices, but the information is not available to farmers and there are irregularities. When farmers were asked about their information sources, there response was that they need to go to market to search information prior to selling, or ask somebody who recently sold the same type lately. Under other circumstances they simply take their farm products to selling place just when the need for cash arises. Thus,.

6

1. Background: The objective of the crop diversification and market development project is promotion of economic growth in rural areas through strengthening commercialization of small farms in areas with recognized market potential, in support to the Government’s effort for Accelerated and Sustainable Development Programme to end Poverty. Provision of market support services is one of the areas where the project is actively involved through its agribusiness and marketing activities to enhance the farmers’ competitiveness in the market. Market information on farm products, inputs and services is being provided to farmers under the project. Towards this end data has been collected from woreda market centers on major farm products in each woreda. The collection center is Asella, Bokoji, Kersa, Etaya, and Sabure for cereals and pulses. Fruits and vegetables are also covered in the lowlwnd woredas of Dodota and Zwai. A prior assessment was made on farmers information needs, sources of information and facilities available to farmers on prices of farm products. The findings indicate that some woreda Agricultural and Rural Development Offices and Ethiopian Agricultural Research Institute, Kulumsa center collect prices, but the information is not available to farmers and there are irregularities. When farmers were asked about their information sources, there response was that they need to go to market to search information prior to selling, or ask somebody who recently sold the same type lately. Under other circumstances they simply take their farm products to selling place just when the need for cash arises. Thus,.

7

Thus, in order to fill this information gap and create data sources for its own purpose as a market development project, the project regularly collect price information from woreda centers on major farm products. Farmers also appreciated the project’s proposal for providing such services, as they are provided with weekly information through cooperative offices and Farm Business Schools. The project’s agribusiness promoters and woreda experts were trained on data collection procedures and different formats prepared for this purpose. Products included in the weekly price survey list are: Barley, Wheat, Teff, Maize, Peas, Beans, few oil crops and vegetables. The products are selected based on their importance in each woreda and their marketability. Further, preparation is underway for including live animals and dairy products in the weakly market survey. Arsi is one of the surplus grain producing areas in the country. Its highlands are intensively cultivated because of its conducive conditions, which are the result of good rainfall, moderate temperature, fertile soils and gentle slopes. The total area covered by crops (excluding horticulture) in the year 2008 meher season is 678,642.00 hectares. The total crop produced was 1,115,287.00 tones. Out of this, cereal accounts for 87%. Pulses and oil crops account for 7 and 6% respectively. The major cereals are wheat, barley and teff in order of importance. Horse bean and peas, flux and haricot beans are the major pulse and oil crops respectively. Similar trend is also observed in the project woredas. The project is working in eight woredas in the centeral part of Arsi out of the total 24 woredas. Percent area covered by each crop in these project woredas is indicated below.

8

Table 1: Importance of the products in the project area (% of area covered from total cultivated in each woreda) Woreda/Crop type

Barley wheat teff maize Pulses & oilcrops

Tiyo 29 46 5 - 13 Hetosa 23 57 3 3 8 Munessa 41 31 1 2 20 D Tijo 34 36 - 2 15 Lemu B 34 37 2 - 25 Z Dugda 6 28 15 35 13 Dodota 30 50 1 15 4 Data was collected from woreda towns on market days. Weakly market days are distributed as follows: Table 2: Towns and Market days Woreda town Market days Tiyo Asella Tuesday, Saturday Hetosa Itaya Monday Munessa Kersa Saturday Digalu Tijo Sagure Thursday Lemu Bilbilo Bokoji This is the first publication after the market information system is put in place and data collection was begun. It indicates the grain price level before the crisis and the price rise, the level of price escalation in 2008 and the aftermath’s upto may 2009.

8

Table 1: Importance of the products in the project area (% of area covered from total cultivated in each woreda) Woreda/Crop type

Barley wheat teff maize Pulses & oilcrops

Tiyo 29 46 5 - 13 Hetosa 23 57 3 3 8 Munessa 41 31 1 2 20 D Tijo 34 36 - 2 15 Lemu B 34 37 2 - 25 Z Dugda 6 28 15 35 13 Dodota 30 50 1 15 4 Data was collected from woreda towns on market days. Weakly market days are distributed as follows: Table 2: Towns and Market days Woreda town Market days Tiyo Asella Tuesday, Saturday Hetosa Itaya Monday Munessa Kersa Saturday Digalu Tijo Sagure Thursday Lemu Bilbilo Bokoji This is the first publication after the market information system is put in place and data collection was begun. It indicates the grain price level before the crisis and the price rise, the level of price escalation in 2008 and the aftermath’s upto may 2009.

9

2. The market structure: There are many market participants in the market for grain. This includes both the formal and informal participants. Rural retailers, Assemblers, medium level traders, large traders, Primary cooperatives, Unions, processors are all included in grain marketing. Exporters are also included through their agents for oil crops. There are also dealers who mediate between buyers and sellers, especially in times of shortage or under fierce competition between different buyers.

2.1 Local assemblers: These are small petty traders who buy from farmers at farm gates or from small market places (below woreda towns) for selling to consumers usually at woreda level. They also sell to medium level traders. They use pack animals for (donkey, horses) for transporting grain. This group includes landless farmers and other living solely on petty trade.

2.2 Larger assemblers: These assemblers have better capital and they sell to woreda retailers and whole sellers. Both of these assesmblers are resource poor, operating with small capital. In some cases they operate by loan capital and are also financed by the woreda traders. They operate over short distance and handle small volumes.

2.3 Woreda retailers/wholesellers: They vary in size, but deal with larger volumes than the collectors. They buy from farmers and assemblers. They own store, thus also provide storage service.

10

They are also the major source of finance for grain trade as they provide loan to assemblers. Their main source of profit is the seasonal price variation. They are both retailers and wholesellers. They retail to consumers and also supply the Nazreth and Addis Abeba market on wholesale basis.

2.4 Cooperatives/unions: Cooperatives buy from farmers especially at harvest time. These cooperatives either supply to their respective unions or/and sell to woreda traders or wholesalers. Processors especially millers also buy from cooperatives and unions. The unions are the major source of finance for purchases by the cooperatives. They provide seasonal loan to primary cooperatives for purchase and supply of grain from farmers.

2.5 Wholesalers: These are large operators located in Nazreth and Addis Abeba. They own large stores and transport vehicles. They usually buy from the woreda traders, cooperatives and unions. They sell to consumers, retailers and processors. These market intermediaries are linked through different, but closely related channels. Six main channels can be identified for linking producers to end users: Channel 1: Producer consumer cannel Channel 2: Rural retailers consumers channel Channel 3: Rural assembler woreda trader channel Channel 4: Producer woreda trader channel Channel 5: producer processor channel Channel 6: producer Cooperatives channel

10

They are also the major source of finance for grain trade as they provide loan to assemblers. Their main source of profit is the seasonal price variation. They are both retailers and wholesellers. They retail to consumers and also supply the Nazreth and Addis Abeba market on wholesale basis.

2.4 Cooperatives/unions: Cooperatives buy from farmers especially at harvest time. These cooperatives either supply to their respective unions or/and sell to woreda traders or wholesalers. Processors especially millers also buy from cooperatives and unions. The unions are the major source of finance for purchases by the cooperatives. They provide seasonal loan to primary cooperatives for purchase and supply of grain from farmers.

2.5 Wholesalers: These are large operators located in Nazreth and Addis Abeba. They own large stores and transport vehicles. They usually buy from the woreda traders, cooperatives and unions. They sell to consumers, retailers and processors. These market intermediaries are linked through different, but closely related channels. Six main channels can be identified for linking producers to end users: Channel 1: Producer consumer cannel Channel 2: Rural retailers consumers channel Channel 3: Rural assembler woreda trader channel Channel 4: Producer woreda trader channel Channel 5: producer processor channel Channel 6: producer Cooperatives channel

11

The Market Chain

Producer

Cooperative Small Trader

Medium Trader

Whole seller

Retailer

Consumer Processor

12

3. Price analysis The data collection was begun in October 2007. Unfortunately, this was a time when price was lowest for farm products since then. This was due to the general price rise in the country, which also coincided with the soaring international price for grains during those months. Price for major grains usually falls each year from November – January, due to the harvest season. But this didn’t happen in 2007 and 2008. Price for cereals continually rose up to next September and October and for some products up to August, 2008. The highest price for white barley, Malt barley and Red Teff was recorded in September. The peak price for white wheat was October. Maize and white teff fetched the highest price in August. The price rise over one year from 2007-2008 (August –October) ranges from 103% for white barley to 180% for maize. But beginning from October 2008, price for grains generally slowed down reaching the lowest level in December. After this there was no appreciable increase in price level for any of the products until September/October 2009. The overall changes or volatility is indicated below:

3.1 Barley White Barley The average price in December 2007 was 263 Birr/qt. From this it gradually rose to the highest level of 622 Birr in September 2008 which is an increase of 139%. The rise also coincides with cereal price rise on international market and the general price level in the country. After this prices slowed down following the 2008/09 Meher harvest until October 2009.

12

3. Price analysis The data collection was begun in October 2007. Unfortunately, this was a time when price was lowest for farm products since then. This was due to the general price rise in the country, which also coincided with the soaring international price for grains during those months. Price for major grains usually falls each year from November – January, due to the harvest season. But this didn’t happen in 2007 and 2008. Price for cereals continually rose up to next September and October and for some products up to August, 2008. The highest price for white barley, Malt barley and Red Teff was recorded in September. The peak price for white wheat was October. Maize and white teff fetched the highest price in August. The price rise over one year from 2007-2008 (August –October) ranges from 103% for white barley to 180% for maize. But beginning from October 2008, price for grains generally slowed down reaching the lowest level in December. After this there was no appreciable increase in price level for any of the products until September/October 2009. The overall changes or volatility is indicated below:

3.1 Barley White Barley The average price in December 2007 was 263 Birr/qt. From this it gradually rose to the highest level of 622 Birr in September 2008 which is an increase of 139%. The rise also coincides with cereal price rise on international market and the general price level in the country. After this prices slowed down following the 2008/09 Meher harvest until October 2009.

13

The price movement from October 2007 to October 2009 in three different markets (Bokiji, Munessa, Etaya) and the average is indicted below.

White Barley

100150200250300350400450500550600650700

O 07

N D J 08

F M A M J J A S O N D J 09

F M A M J J A S O

Months (Oct07-Oct09)

Birr

/qt

Bokoji Munessa Etaya Av

Malt Barley The Malt Factory in Arsi is the major buyer of malt barley in Arsi. Households also demand it for making beverages and also as food. Although there is an upward trend as is true for all cereals, there is relatively lower short term variations. Average price was 309 birr/qt in October 2007. Then price rose to the highest level of 648.00 birr in September 2008, and fell to 465 Birr following the harvest in January 2009. Then it stays stable mainly due to the fixed demand from the malt barley and reduced instability of the other barley varieties (substitution effect).

14

Malt Barley

100150200250300350400450500550600650700750

O07 N D J08 F M A M J J A S O N D J09 F M A M J J A S

Months(O07-S09)

Bir

r/qt

Bokoji Munessa Asella Av. The level of volatility for both white and malt barley is indicted below using own price index. For white barley there was an increase of 150% from October 2007 to August 2008. After this a down ward trend is observed until August 2009 showing a decrease of 120 percent. The variation for malt barley is slower showing an increase of 120 % followed by a decrease of 70% until February 2009.

Barley price

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

O 07

N D J 08

F M A M J J A S O N D J 09

F M A M J J A S O

Months(Oct07-Oct09)

Oct

07=

100

Wh barley Malt barley

14

Malt Barley

100150200250300350400450500550600650700750

O07 N D J08 F M A M J J A S O N D J09 F M A M J J A S

Months(O07-S09)

Bir

r/qt

Bokoji Munessa Asella Av. The level of volatility for both white and malt barley is indicted below using own price index. For white barley there was an increase of 150% from October 2007 to August 2008. After this a down ward trend is observed until August 2009 showing a decrease of 120 percent. The variation for malt barley is slower showing an increase of 120 % followed by a decrease of 70% until February 2009.

Barley price

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

O 07

N D J 08

F M A M J J A S O N D J 09

F M A M J J A S O

Months(Oct07-Oct09)

Oct

07=

100

Wh barley Malt barley

15

3.2 Wheat As the case for all cereals, price of white wheat rose to the highest level from April to October 2008. The total increase was over 100%, the highest level being September – October 2008. After this it has gradually slowed down to an average of 417 Birr/qt in May 2009. After this there was no significant price change until October 2009.

White wheat

200250300350400450500550600650700750

O07 N D

J08 F M A M J J A S O N D

J09 F M A M J J A S O

Months ( Oct07-Oct09)

Bir

r/qt

Bokoji Asella Etaya Av

Red wheat which is cheaper than white wheat showed more seasonal variations, but with the same trend.

Red Wheat

200250300350400450500550600650700750

O07 D F A J A O D F A J A

Months ( Oct07-Sept09)

Bir

r/qt

P

16

The following index shows that there was a pronounced rise in price level from February to September 2008. There was an increase of 145% from October 2007 to September 2008. This was flowed by a sharp decrease until December 2008 followed by slower decrease over time.

Wheat price

5075

100125150175200225250275

O 07

N D J 08

F M A M J J A S O N D J 09

F M A M J J A S O

Months(Oct 07-Oct09)

Oct

07=1

00

Wh wheat R wheat

3.3 Teff: Teff is a major stable food crop, especially in urban areas and households with higher income. Basically there are three types in the market: white, mixed and red. Data was not collected on mixed teff, due to variations in its quality and the difficulty of identifying particular/specific grade. There are major variations in quality and price for white and red teff. White teff is more preferable and fetches higher price.

16

The following index shows that there was a pronounced rise in price level from February to September 2008. There was an increase of 145% from October 2007 to September 2008. This was flowed by a sharp decrease until December 2008 followed by slower decrease over time.

Wheat price

5075

100125150175200225250275

O 07

N D J 08

F M A M J J A S O N D J 09

F M A M J J A S O

Months(Oct 07-Oct09)

Oct

07=1

00

Wh wheat R wheat

3.3 Teff: Teff is a major stable food crop, especially in urban areas and households with higher income. Basically there are three types in the market: white, mixed and red. Data was not collected on mixed teff, due to variations in its quality and the difficulty of identifying particular/specific grade. There are major variations in quality and price for white and red teff. White teff is more preferable and fetches higher price.

17

White Teff

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

O07 N D J08 F M A M J J A S O N D J0

9 F M A M J J A S

Months(Oct07-Sept09)

Bitt

/qt

Bokoji Asella Etaya Av

Red Teff

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

O07 N D J08 F M A M J J A S O N D J0

9 F M A M J J A S

Months(Oct07-Sept09)

Bir

r/qt

Bokoji Asella Etaya Av There is no variation in volatility between the two grains, as they are close substitutes meeting the same end. Also low resilience is observed for both grades.

18

Teff price index

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

O 07

N D J 08

F M A M J J A S O N D J 09

F M A M J J A S

months(Oct07-Sep09)

Oct

07=

100

Wh teff R teff

The total price change from October 2007 to the highest level in September/October 2008 was 121 and 138 Percent for white and red teff respectively. Following the peak time in October 2009, the price fell by 8 and 21 percent respectively until October 2009. This indicated that price of teff is more rigid downward as compared to the other cereals.

3.4 Maize: Maize is used both as food crop and for making beverages especially in mid altitude and humid sub tropic areas. It is also considered poor man’s food due to its lower price as compared to the other cereals. Low income rural people resort to maize at hard times, especially July to September. From the graph we can see that its average price was 200.00 Birr/qt in October 2007, and fell to the lowest level of 177 Birr/qt in January prior to the 2008 price rise.

18

Teff price index

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

O 07

N D J 08

F M A M J J A S O N D J 09

F M A M J J A S

months(Oct07-Sep09)

Oct

07=

100

Wh teff R teff

The total price change from October 2007 to the highest level in September/October 2008 was 121 and 138 Percent for white and red teff respectively. Following the peak time in October 2009, the price fell by 8 and 21 percent respectively until October 2009. This indicated that price of teff is more rigid downward as compared to the other cereals.

3.4 Maize: Maize is used both as food crop and for making beverages especially in mid altitude and humid sub tropic areas. It is also considered poor man’s food due to its lower price as compared to the other cereals. Low income rural people resort to maize at hard times, especially July to September. From the graph we can see that its average price was 200.00 Birr/qt in October 2007, and fell to the lowest level of 177 Birr/qt in January prior to the 2008 price rise.

19

There was a sharp price rise beginning from February 2008, and reached a peak price of 600 Birr/qt in July-September, 2009.

White Maize

150200250300350400450500550600650700

O07 N D

J08 F M A M J J A S O N D

J09 F M A M J J A S

Months(Oct07-Sept09)

Birr

/qt

Bokoji Asella Av

The other major issue in the price of maize is the spatial variation between the two markets which lies within a distance of 60 Kilometers. Though there are the similar seasonal movements there are times when large variations are observed, which may be due to low storage facilities and traders negligence in favor of the other grains. The constructed price index shows that, price of maize is both volatile and unstable over the indicated period. There was a price rise of 300% from January to August 2008. This was followed by a sharp decline until December 2008. This was followed by leveling of price up to May 2009, when there was again a new price rise as the rainy season approaches.

20

White Maize

50

75

100125

150

175

200

225250

275

300

O07 N D

J08 F M A M J J A S O N D

J09 F M A M J J A S

months(Oct07-Sept09)

Oct

07=

100

3.5 Pulses Pulses are domestically used and are also exported. The major pulse crops are faba beans and field peas in the area. There are two types of both; white and shiro type. The shiro types are included in the weakly market survey. Here the price rise was is less pronounced as compared to the other crops. For faba beans price increased from 320 birr to 590 Birr per quintal (October 2007 – August 2008). This was followed by reduction of price to 482.00 Birr in December 2008. Similar variation was also observed for peas. Price increased by 96% from January to September, 2008. This was followed by a reduction of 25% following the harvest season.

20

White Maize

50

75

100125

150

175

200

225250

275

300

O07 N D

J08 F M A M J J A S O N D

J09 F M A M J J A S

months(Oct07-Sept09)

Oct

07=

100

3.5 Pulses Pulses are domestically used and are also exported. The major pulse crops are faba beans and field peas in the area. There are two types of both; white and shiro type. The shiro types are included in the weakly market survey. Here the price rise was is less pronounced as compared to the other crops. For faba beans price increased from 320 birr to 590 Birr per quintal (October 2007 – August 2008). This was followed by reduction of price to 482.00 Birr in December 2008. Similar variation was also observed for peas. Price increased by 96% from January to September, 2008. This was followed by a reduction of 25% following the harvest season.

21

Pulse price

250300350400450500550600650700

O07 N D

J08 F M A M J J A S O N D

J09 F M A M J Ju A S O

Months(Oct07-Oct09)

Birr

/qt

Beans Peas

Pulses

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

O07 N D

J08 F M A M J J A S O N D

J09 F M A M J Ju A S O

Months(Oct07-Oct09)

Oct

07=

100

Beans Peas

In summary the price change from its lowest level in October 2007 to the highest level in August/September 2008 was more pronounced. This was followed by gradual decrease until September/October 2009.

22

Table 3: Summary of price variation

Crop Type

Changes (Birr./qt) % change O07 Au/Sep0

8 Sep/Oct09 O07-

A/S08 A/s08-S/O09

total

Barley: White

260 622 348 139 (44) 34

Barley: Malt 309 648 504 110 (22) 63 Wheat: white

286 700 377 145 (46) 32

Teff:white 475 980 923 106 (6) 94 Teff: Red 392 892 691 127 (22) 76 Maize: White

216 603 413 179 (31) 91

Faba beans 320 607 495 90 (18) 55 Field peas 373 658 458 76 (30) 23

23

4. Conclusion This publication provides stakeholders with information on cropping pattern, grain market structure and price movements in central Arsi, one of the major surplus grains producing area in the country. It also pays attention more on how prices for grain changed over the months in relation to the price surge observed in 2008. In 2008 price moved to its highest level from March 2008 to September 2008. The total price rise from January to September was 133 percent for wheat, 100 % for barley and teff. The rise was more pronounced for maize which is 160 percent. Pulse and oil crops also followed the same trend. The fall also followed the same trend in reverse direction. From the highest level in September to May/June the total fall is about 40%. The decrease followed the onset of the 2008 harvest and there is still a decreasing trend except Teff. Price of white and red teff fell by 26 and 13 percent respectively. The overall change from October 2007 to September/October 2009 ranges from 32 to 94 percent for cereals and 23 to 55 percent for pulses. In summary there is large seasonal variation for all crops. These seasonal variations affect farmers’ income and makes planning more difficult at household level. There also pronounced spatial variations within short distance indicating the grain market inefficiencies in the rural areas. Investigation to such inefficiencies requires more detailed analysis on the market structure and costs. The next publication will provide information on the current market situation, spatial variations and marketing costs also including horticultural crops.

22

Table 3: Summary of price variation

Crop Type

Changes (Birr./qt) % change O07 Au/Sep0

8 Sep/Oct09 O07-

A/S08 A/s08-S/O09

total

Barley: White

260 622 348 139 (44) 34

Barley: Malt 309 648 504 110 (22) 63 Wheat: white

286 700 377 145 (46) 32

Teff:white 475 980 923 106 (6) 94 Teff: Red 392 892 691 127 (22) 76 Maize: White

216 603 413 179 (31) 91

Faba beans 320 607 495 90 (18) 55 Field peas 373 658 458 76 (30) 23

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4. Conclusion This publication provides stakeholders with information on cropping pattern, grain market structure and price movements in central Arsi, one of the major surplus grains producing area in the country. It also pays attention more on how prices for grain changed over the months in relation to the price surge observed in 2008. In 2008 price moved to its highest level from March 2008 to September 2008. The total price rise from January to September was 133 percent for wheat, 100 % for barley and teff. The rise was more pronounced for maize which is 160 percent. Pulse and oil crops also followed the same trend. The fall also followed the same trend in reverse direction. From the highest level in September to May/June the total fall is about 40%. The decrease followed the onset of the 2008 harvest and there is still a decreasing trend except Teff. Price of white and red teff fell by 26 and 13 percent respectively. The overall change from October 2007 to September/October 2009 ranges from 32 to 94 percent for cereals and 23 to 55 percent for pulses. In summary there is large seasonal variation for all crops. These seasonal variations affect farmers’ income and makes planning more difficult at household level. There also pronounced spatial variations within short distance indicating the grain market inefficiencies in the rural areas. Investigation to such inefficiencies requires more detailed analysis on the market structure and costs. The next publication will provide information on the current market situation, spatial variations and marketing costs also including horticultural crops.