Table of Contents · Final Report III IACC Inter-Agency Coordination Committees ICAO International...

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Table of Contents

Chapter-1 Introduction............................................................................................................... 1

1.1. Background....................................................................................................................... 1 1.2. Natural Conditions........................................................................................................... 4

Chapter-2 Urban Planning of Kabul City ................................................................................. 9 2.1. Existing Conditions.......................................................................................................... 9 2.2. Population....................................................................................................................... 19 2.3. Kabul City Master Plan................................................................................................. 29 2.4. Administrative and Legal Matter ................................................................................. 40 2.5. Gender and Social Considerations ................................................................................ 45

Chapter-3 Rehabilitation Study of Infrastructure ................................................................. 59 3.1. Traffic Management and Road Rehabilitation Plan .................................................... 59 3.2. Water Supply Rehabilitation Plan ................................................................................ 80 3.3. Sanitary Rehabilitation Plan ...................................................................................... 100 3.4. Power Supply Rehabilitation Plan...............................................................................117 3.5. Telecommunication Rehabilitation Plan..................................................................... 125

Chapter-4 Rehabilitation Study of Public Transportation................................................... 147 4.1. Present Public Transportation .................................................................................... 147 4.2. Traffic Survey ............................................................................................................... 156 4.3. Analysis of Existing Condition of Public Transportation.......................................... 163 4.4. Traffic Demand Forecast.............................................................................................. 166 4.5. Policy for Plan Formulation......................................................................................... 169 4.6. Public Transport Plan .................................................................................................. 171 4.7. Operation System of Millie Bus .................................................................................. 176 4.8. Proposed Projects and Programs................................................................................. 178

Chapter-5 Conclusions and Recommendations..................................................................... 191 5.1. Rehabilitation Plan ...................................................................................................... 191 5.2. Criteria of the Prioritization........................................................................................ 191 5.3. Urgent Projects and Programs.................................................................................... 192 5.4. Conclusions and Recommendations............................................................................ 218

Supporting Document Supporting Document 1

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Abbreviations

List of Acronyms and Abbreviations AACA Afghan Assistance Coordination Authority ACBAR Agency Coordination Body for Afghan Relief ADB Asian Development Bank AIA Afghan Interim Administration AIMS Afghan Information Management System AITA Afghanistan Islamic Transitional Authority AKED Aga Khan Fund for Economic Development AREA Agency for Rehabilitation and Energy Conservation ARF Annual Risk for Infection ARI Acute Respiratory Infection ARR Arrester AWCC Afghanistan Wireless Communication Company BTS Base Transceiver Station CNA Comprehensive Needs Assessment CAWSS Central Authority for Water Supply and Sewerage CCR Call Completion Ratio CC08 Model name of digital switching system by HUAWEI CDMA Code Division Multiple Access CHW Community Health Workers CIMIC Civil Military Cooperation CSO Central Statistics Office of Afghanistan DACCAR Danish committee for Afghanistan Rehabilitation DFID Department for International Development, U.K DOTS Directly Observed Treatment Short-Course E.C. Electrical Conductivity ECD Early Childhood Development ECE Early Childhood Education ECHO European Commission's Humanitarian Aid Office EHB Education, Health and Broadcasting Erlang Unit of telephone traffic volume EMIS Education Management Information System EOJ Embassy of Japan EPI Education Program on Immunization EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization GER Gross Enrollment Rates GSM Global System for Mobile Communications GOJ Government of Japan GSM Global System for Mobile Communications GTZ Deutsche Gesellschaft Für Technische Zusammenarbeit (German Technical Cooperation) HOP Italian NGO HTTC Higher Teacher Training College HUAWEI Company name of manufacturing digital switching system IAA Interim Administration of Afghanistan

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IACC Inter-Agency Coordination Committees ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization ICRC International Committees of the Red Cross (International Center for Red Cross) IDPs Internally Displaced Persons ILO International Labor Organization IMR Infant Mortality Rate IOM International Organization for Migration IP Institute of Pedagogy ISAF International Security Assistant Forces ITNs Insecticides Treated Nets ITU International Telecommunication Union JCCP Japan Center for Conflict prevention JEN Japan Emergency NGO JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency JPY Japanese Yen KFW Kreditanstalt fuer Wiederauf (German Development Bank) KTC Kabul Tuberculosis Center LOTFA Law and Order Trust Fund for Afghanistan Mbps Mega bit per second (unit of transmission speed of signal or information) MCH Maternal-Child Health MDF Main Distribution Frame MOC Ministry of Communication MOE Ministry of Education MOHE Ministry of Higher Education MOPH Ministry of Public Health MOWA Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs MSF Medicine Sans Frontiers NGO Non-Governmental Organization OPD Out Patient Department PARSA Physiotherapy and Rehabilitation Support for Afghanistan PPAs Performance-based Partnership Agreements PTT Post, Telephone & Telegraph PVC Polyvinyl Chloride RR Resource Room RSM Remote Switch Module RTA Radio and Television Afghanistan SDH Synchronous Digital Hierarchy Siemens EMD Model name of analogue switching system by Siemens Siemens F1 Model name of analogue switching system by Siemens STM-1 Synchronous Transport Module – Level 1 STM-4 Synchronous Transport Module – Level 4 TB Tuberculosis TBA Traditional Birth Attendants TDH French NGO TLS Combined Transit with Local Switch TOT Training of Trainers TTC Telecommunications Training Center UN United Nation

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UNAMA United Nation Administrative Management in Afghanistan UNCHS United Nation Center for Human Settlement UNDCP United Nation Drug Control Program UNDP United Nation Development Plan UNESCO United Nation Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization UNFPA United Nation Family and Population Agency UNHAS United Nation Humanitarian Air Service UNHCR United Nation High Commissioner for Refugees UNICEF United Nation Children Fund (Originally: UN International Children Emergency Fund) UNIFEM United Nation Development Fund for Women UNOPS United Nation Office for Project Service URSP Urgent Rehabilitation Support Program USAID United Sates Aid for International Development USD US Dollar UXO Unexploded Ordinance VSAT Very Small Aperture Terminal WB World Bank WFP World Foods Program WHO World Health Organization WLL Wireless Local Loop (type of network access system using wireless system)

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Chapter-1 Introduction 1

Chapter-1 Introduction

1.1. Background

1.1.1. Background of the URSP-SWPT

This study, Urgent Rehabilitation Support Program in Afghanistan (Rehabilitation Study for the South-Western Area and Public Transportation Study of Kabul) is known as URSP-SWPT and also as Phase-II Study which follows the Urgent Rehabilitation Support Program in Afghanistan (Education, Health and Broadcasting Sectors) known as Phase-I.

The international community has resumed to address seriously the urgent rehabilitation and reconstruction needs of the country by pledging the financial assistance amounting to about $45 billion over the coming two and a half years. The pledge was made at the International Conference on Reconstruction Assistance to Afghanistan held in January 2002 in Tokyo.

Accordingly, the Government of Japan (GOJ) pledged to share the financial assistance of $500 million for the said period particularly for urgent humanitarian assistance in the sectors of education, health and medical care, resettlement of repatriated refugees, landmine clearance, and empowerment of women’s situation.

Under the circumstances, GOJ sent a preparatory mission for supporting the Afghanistan Interim Administration (AIA) from March 3 to 13, 2002. The mission held meetings with ministries of AIA and other organizations concerned, and inspected various facilities with a view to grasping concrete needs for Japanese future assistance. Those concerned on the Afghan side expressed their great expectations for the earliest possible implementation of assistance that could be seen in the immediate future.

JICA sent an Advisory Team from 7 to 14 April 2002 and took Minutes of Meeting on the Implementing Agreement of the Urban Rehabilitation Support Program in Afghanistan (Rehabilitation Study for South-Western Area and Public Transportation Study of Kabul). The meeting was to exchange views and included a series of discussions covering the Objectives, Target Area, Scope of Works, Counterpart Personnel, and so on with the representatives of the organization concerned.

In the Afghanistan, various facilities especially infrastructure were destroyed by the long term civil war since 1979, the daily life of the nation has many difficulties and the reconstruction of facilities is an urgent matter. Especially the South-Western Area of Kabul city, where the public facilities are completely damaged by the war and private houses are mostly non-roofed but people are still living in them. The area has historical buildings and other public facilities but they are non-functional and waiting for urgent reconstruction.

Kabul City Master Plan was created by Soviets in 1978 and the population of the master plan was 1.5 million people in the target year of 2000. However, it’s the actual figure is bigger due to the number of returnees. The existing population is estimated as

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appropriately 1.86 million.

It is said that the conflicts up to now stem from troubles among races. Therefore, the rehabilitation plan made by the Study Team should be equal to each race to avoid any friction. Moreover, people desire the rehabilitation of the city much more than any such friction.

However, important infrastructure for the lives of the people such as repair of roads, water supply; piping network and water sources and electrical supply; cabling network and generators are being worked on by donors such as KfW, GTZ, EU and World Bank.

In Afghanistan, the new policy to establish the country welcomes the participation and collaboration of men and women. Thus, increasing urban functions is necessity to support the rehabilitation in society which includes women. However, such urban functions are still not sufficiently completed at this stage.

1.1.2. Objectives of URSP-SWPT

As a consequence of the findings by the mission, GOJ decided to proceed with the Urgent Rehabilitation Support Program-II (URSP-II) covering the following different fields:

(1) Rehabilitation study forecasting the long-term plan in 2020

According to the investigation of Phase-I study team, statistics data are not available or if available, are not collected easily. There is social anxiety by returning refugees to Kabul city about their future and about natural disasters such as dry weather, etc. Therefore, the plan is to modify the methodology and to base the future framework on figures which are estimates.

(2) Rehabilitation study for South-Western Area in Kabul City

The area is one of the most damaged areas in Kabul city from the continuous civil war. However, traces of urban development still remaining this most historically important area. Thus, it is highly expected that urban infrastructure networks like road, electricity, telecommunications, potable water and sewerage, etc. will be provided and the residential area and commercial area will be developed.

(3) Public transportation plan in Kabul City

The public transportation plan shows the transportation system of Kabul city overall. Currently, the public transportation is composed of taxis and buses in Kabul city, although a trolley bus network was operated in the past. Traffic is mostly not managed. Therefore, traffic jams occurred here and there due to lack of regulation of vehicles, bicycles, pedestrian, etc.

1.1.3. Study Area and Target Year of URSP-SWPT

(1) Study area

The study area is the following:

1) Rehabilitation study for South- West Area of Kabul City

Study area is in the South-Western Area of Kabul city covering about 100 km2 and

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includes Districts Nos.3, No.5, No.6 and No.7 shown in Figure 1.1.

This includes the entire Kabul city, if necessary.

2) Public transportation study

All of Kabul city

Figure 1.1 Study Area

Source: ISAF, AIMS, JICA Study Team

(2) Target years

The target years of the project are:

• Year 2005: Short term for urgent rehabilitation

• Year 2010: Long term for rehabilitation

1.1.4. Team Organization

(1) Counterparts agency

The counterpart agencies are the following:

Selected for the first stage:

• Ministry of Planning

• Ministry of Reconstruction

• Ministry of Transport

• Kabul Municipality

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(2) Other related agencies

• Afghan Assistance Coordination Authority

• Ministry of Public Works

• Ministry of Urban Planning and Housing

• Ministry of Water and Power

• Ministry of Communication

• Millie Bus Corporation, etc.

(3) JICA Study Team

The JICA Study Team which conducted the study is composed of the following members.

Table 1.1 JICA Study Team

No. Assignment Name

1. Team Leader Mr. Takahide Fujihira

2. Deputy Team Leader/ City Planning Mr. Kazunori Seki

3. Deputy Team Leader/Public Transport Planning Mr. Toshihiro Hotta

4. Land Use Planning Mr. Takeshi Omura

5. Gender/Social Consideration Ms. Sonoe Yamada

6. Transport Administration Planning Mr. Ichiro Tanaka

7. Traffic Survey/Demand Analysis Mr. Takeharu Koba

8. Road Rehabilitation Planning/Design/Cost Estimate Mr. Yoshiteru Yamamura

9. Power Supply Planning/Design/Cost Estimate Mr. Hirohito Seto

10. Telecommunication Network Planning/Design/Cost Estimate Mr. Shizuma Nakada

11. Water Supply･Sewerage Planning/Design/Cost Estimate Mr. Masaharu Takasugi

12. Water Supply Planning/Cost Estimate Mr. Naoto Toda

13. Administrative Institution and Laws Mr. Koichiro Tanaka

14. Team Administration/Social Survey Ms. Hitomi Tomizawa

15. Road Construction Supervision Mr. Sang Gyoon Lee Source: JICA Study Team

1.2. Natural Conditions

1.2.1. Climatic Conditions

Kabul City is located at an altitude of 1,797 meters (5,900 ft.) from sea level. On account of its elevation, in the summer season, Kabul is bestowed with healthy and equable climate comparable to those of lowland cities. The climate of the city is categorized as steppe zone in dry weather. According to the monthly average climatic data of recent 10 years survey by the Ministry of Civil Aviation and Tourism, highest rainfall is 71.9 mm in April while lowest is 1.0 mm in June. Mean maximum

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temperature is 32.1℃ in August and minimum is –7.1℃ in January. Normally low humidity is the typical climatic condition through the year especially from May to October, when relative humidity is less than 40 to 50%. Summary of climate data is shown in Table 1.2.

Table 1.2 Climate Data in Kabul City: Monthly Average of Recent 10 Years

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecMean Average Temperature（℃） -2.3 -0.7 6.3 12.8 17.3 22.8 25.0 24.1 19.7 13.1 5.9 0.6

Mean Maximum Temperature（℃） 4.5 5.9 12.5 19.2 24.4 30.2 32.1 32.0 28.5 22.4 15.0 8.3

Mean Minimum Temperature（℃） -7.1 -5.7 0.7 6.0 8.8 12.4 15.3 14.3 9.4 3.9 -1.2 -4.7

Mean Average Humidity (%) 68 70 65 61 48 36 37 38 39 42 52 63

Accumulate Rainfall (mm) 34.3 60.1 67.9 71.9 23.4 1.0 6.2 1.6 1.7 3.7 18.6 21.6Wind Velocity (m/sec) 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0

Source: Ministry of Civil Aviation and Tourism

Seasonal variation of monthly effective precipitation and potential evaporation are shown in Figure 1.2. Annual potential evaporation dramatically exceeds rainfall in all the seasons, especially during summer seasons. This leads to extremely low recharge of precipitation to groundwater. This directly affects human activities which rely on groundwater. Only in February, however, the amount of potential evapotranspiration and effective precipitation is temporally equivalent because of the melting of accumulated snow and frost. The lack of water resource is a crucial issue in Kabul city as well as in the whole of Afghanistan.

Figure 1.2 Seasonal Variation of Monthly Effective Precipitation and Potential Evaporation in Kabul City

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

(mm)

potential evapotranspiration effective precipitation


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1.2.2. Topographical and Hydro-geological Conditions

(1) Topography

Kabul city is located at Latitude 34-31’ North and Longitude 69-12’ East at an altitude of 1800 m ASL and surrounded by steep valleys and mountains at the crossroads of north-south and east-west trade routes into Pakistan.

Three main mountains surround Kabul: Koh-e Paghman mountain (which is a brunch of Hindu Kosh Mountain ranges at east part of Kabul city) Koh-e Oriugh Mountain, and Koh-e Shirdarwaza on the north part of Kabul city.

(2) Hydrogeology

As for river systems in Kabul city, surface water drains to the Indus basin through Pakistan. As a particular example, Kabul river, which is one of the main river system, flows in an easterly direction, past Kabul city, and through Tang-e Gharou, Jelalabad, and then on to Dakka where it leaves Pakistan territory and finally runs into the Indus at Atak.

It is 560 km from Kotal Onai (Onai Hill) to Atak. The volume of water is changed depending on seasonal rain; however, it is almost dry during June, July and August. Kabul River has highest rate of water flow in the Tang-e Gharou pass and Soroubi toward the city of Jelalabad.

Hydroelectric power stations in Sarobi (1957), Maheepar, Naghlo (1966) provided electricity for Kabul. Other river systems comprise Panjshir river (which flows from North to Kabul city) and Logar river (from Kabul city to further south). Even in these large rivers, the volume of water decreases and it happened to dry up completely down river influenced by serious drought that occurred several years ago. It is very serious that narrow streams and storm-water drains frequently tend to dry up.

The outstanding hydro-geological conditions show that Kabul city is covered with alluvial deposit that consists of gravel, sand, and clay. The thickness of the alluvial deposit is around 70 m although the depth depends on the location. Neogene deposit with the thickness of around 150 m overlays the alluvial deposit.

There are three major groundwater aquifers in Kabul city, mainly distributed along the three major rivers. These aquifers are utilized as a source for water supply for Kabul city.

1.2.3. Groundwater

(1) Availability

As mentioned already, groundwater is definitely a crucial factor as a major source for water management in Kabul city. Since approx. 1998, Afghanistan has faced a drought situation, which forced large number of people into a condition in which there was hardly any access to water.

In order to mitigate the situation, Afghan, development agency and International NGOs have been involved in providing groundwater wells and boreholes to supply drinking water as well as irrigation water without consideration to the capacity of groundwater. As a result, people come to rely on usage of groundwater not only for short-term needs against drought but also for maintaining irrigation wells for agriculture.

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The causal relationship between over-abstraction and declining groundwater have not been calculated yet in Kabul city; however, it is generally feared that low concern for the capacity of groundwater has definitely caused the aquifer into deficit, resulting in progressively declining of the groundwater water table.

(2) Water Contamination

As for groundwater quality, analysis conducted by Banks (2001) illustrates the quality of groundwater sampled in Kabul city. The result reveals that water sampled in Kabul exceed the WHO (1996/1998) drinking water standard for nitrate of 45 mg/l. In an urban area like Kabul city, the source of nitrate is very likely to be sewage and leachate from latrines. Nitrate may be an indicator of pathogenic bacterial contamination. It is not surprising to see the location of wells nearby high density of latrines all over Kabul city.

Table 1.3 Main Water Quality Parameters in Kabul City Parameter pH t-Alk Cl- NO3- So42- Si Mg Ca Na K B IBE Type Total (meq/I) (mg/l) (mg/l) (mg/l) (mg/l) (mg/l) (mg/l) (mg/l) (mg/l) (mg/l) (%) min.(mg/

l)Kabul 7.6 10.99 137 50 106 12.1 92.7 90.3 112 9.12 1.12 -1.79 Mg-HCO 1,281


In addition, Timmins (1996) conducted a water-quality survey in Kabul city which involved the analysis of 1,400 samples of water from open dug wells, wells with hand pumps, spring and tap stands fed by the city’s distribution network. It confirmed both extensive contamination by faucal microbes and nitrate, and also the advantages to be gained by fitting a hand pump to a protected well-top.

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Chapter-2 Urban Planning of Kabul City 9

Chapter-2 Urban Planning of Kabul City

2.1. Existing Conditions

2.1.1. Urban Structure of Kabul City

(1) History and location

Kabul city, the capital of the Afghanistan since year 1776, was called Asphahani before 510 years ago. It has not been famous for the last Five decades, but it has been famous throughout Afghan history.

Kabul city is located at strategic intersection of international roads to Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Pakistan. Khyber Pass is the nearest border to Pakistan. The road distance from Kabul to Khyber Pass is 200 km via Jalalabad. Therefore, Kabul has been pointed out as an important city for neighboring countries in terms of supplying goods and ammunition in history.

The population of the city as of 2002 is 1.8 million (based on municipality data adjusted by the study team) within the city area of 37,000 ha or 370 km2. After the peace agreement, the city is receiving 300,000 to 400,000 of returned refugees that account for around 20% of the whole population. That number is half of the total number of refugees who lived in Kabul city before the war. Based on a UNHCR officer’s comments, most of refugees will have returned to Afghanistan at end of the year 2003.

(2) Geography

Mountains surround Kabul city from east to west by Paghman and Khaingal Mountains, and in the south by Khord Kabul Mountains with 1,600 meter height. In addition, there are some hills 40 to 250 meters high within the City. The urban structure is geographically divided into two basins, north and south basin. On the top of the hill Koh-E Asmal, there are broadcasting facilities, which is a good vantage point for viewing the whole of Kabul city at a glance. Kabul River flows south-west to north-east, and the river geographically separates two areas: eastern and western river banks.

(3) Urban context

Kabul city is a multifunctional city since it is the seat of central government and also commercial/business center of the nation.

Administratively, the city is divided into 14 districts numbered from 1 to 12 and 15 to 16. The head of districts are appointed by the mayor of municipality.

Each district has a district office for public services and their function is as follows:

Each district has district office for public services and their function is as follows;

• Administration Service: Land registration, Resident registration, Levy of tax and public utilities service charge, etc.

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• Engineering service: Roads and utilities operation and maintenance, etc.

• Branch Office: Fire brigade, Police station, Post and Telecommunication office, etc.

Each district is sub-divided into Gozar (sub districts) with a head (wakil) selected by a local referendum.Number of Gozar in each district is shown below.

Table 2.1 Number of Gozar by Area

South-West Area North Area South-East Area

District 3 17 District 2 14 District 1 46


District 6 30 District 9 26 District 12 N.A.


District 11 7

District 15 23 Source: Kabul Municipality

Figure 2.1 Existing Urban Structure

Source: JICA Study Team

1) Northern Area

Northern area consists of six districts (D-2, 4, 9, 10, 11, 15) and the area has major urban facilities such as Kabul International Airport, most of Central Government Offices, President House and King’s Residence, Kabul Municipality as well as

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commercial center (the downtown). Therefore, this area has middle and a few high raise buildings with minimum service infrastructure such as electricity and water supply, and small number of telecommunication lines.

At present, the most significant phenomenon in District 10 is concentration of many international donor offices for the rehabilitation of Afghanistan. These offices are all temporarily using ordinary residential buildings. There are two reasons for using houses as offices: there are no available office buildings in the city and District 10 has better utility services than other districts at this moment. This situation is typical of the existing urban conditions of Kabul city which are failing to function properly.

District 11 and 15 are high population density districts and new settlements are expanding in the fringe areas day by day.

2) South-Western Area

Behind hills spread over the South-Western Area are four districts (D-3, 5, 6, 7). Important and symbolic facilities are located in the area such as educational facility of Kabul University, Military School, Kabul Polytechnic Institute, Habiba and other several high schools. Cultural facilities include Kabul Zoological Park, Babur Garden, Darlaman King’s Palace, Queen’s Palace, and medical facility of Tuberculosis Hospital that is under reconstructing by Japanese grant aid program (JICA).

The most outstanding characteristic of the area is almost totally in ruins as ghost town now. Under the circumstances, some families have settled in rubble without any utility services. For instance, they don’t have electricity or potable water. This is the crucial situation of residents living below the basic-human-needs level.

Destroyed buildings at Deh Mazang round-about in District 3 (Aug. 12, 2002)


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3) South-Eastern Area

Beyond east bank of Kabul River, the south-eastern area consists of four districts (D-1, 8, 12, 16). There are a few notable facilities located in this area such as Afghanistan National Radio Station, Pole Charkhi Jail, Chuzi Stadium, Ceremonial Park, Nadir Khan Grave Yards, etc.

A certain part of District 1 and part of District 16 is urbanized zone with higher density residential dwellings. Outskirts of Districts 8 and 12 are typical suburban areas with new settlements surrounded by agricultural lands.

4) Public and neighborhood facility

At present, government offices are highly concentrated within the central area, especially within District 2. However, there is a decentralization policy for relocation of major government offices out of central areas.

On the other hand, branch offices and neighborhood facilities such as police station, fire brigade, post office, market and commercial sub-center etc. are dispersed in each community unit. It is desirable to solve traffic congestion at central area as well as mitigate negative environmental factors. However, most of these public facilities in the community have serious problems to receive sufficient basic utility services such as water and power.

2.1.2. Existing Land Use Pattern

Existing land use pattern of the city is summarized in the table below. From the table, significant land use patterns are explained as follows:

(1) Whole city

1) National administration center

Many government and municipal offices are located in the west of District 2 and occupy around half of the district area. Many international organization offices are also located in the district.

2) Commercial centers

A huge public market is located between the Kabul River and Jadayi Maiwand St. in District 1. A great number of small shops and vendors spill over onto the streets in the district. They are also located on and even in the Kabul River. On Jadayi Maiwand St., many trade shops and vendors are also located although the area was completely destroyed due to the civil war. Economic activities have begun again during the last few months.

District 2 is the other commercial center. Many kinds of small shops spill over the roadside area of Salang Wat St.

3) Wholesale area

Many building material selling sites can be seen all over the city, especially in the suburban area. One of the biggest sites is at the northwest edge of District 4. Wholesale shops selling commodities are in a large area. In an adjacent area, around 180 used car shops occupy the roadside on Salang Wat St. The car shops have been increasing over the last few months.

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4) Industrial area

The east side of District 9 was the most active area for industrial establishments. The factories are mainly on Jadayi Awalimay St. on the road to Jalalabad; however, only a few factories are running. Burnt brick factories are mainly located in Districts 6 and 12. Various small scale home industries and workshops are mixed in residential areas.

5) Educational facility area

District 3 is known as the place where Kabul University is located. Several high schools also are located in the district. Some of them are still used in spite of having serious damage. At the east end of District 5, Kabul Polytechnic Institute, a police academy and a religious school hold land.

6) Residential area

The built-up area of Kabul city is divided into two zones: the northeast and southwest which are divided by a ridgeline of the hills including Afsher Hill, Ali Abad Hill, Asmayee Hill and Shirdarwaza Hill. The northeast of Kabul city has residential area which is rather better built. Districts 1, 2, 4, 10,11 and 15 are in this northeast area. Several medium-rise housing (apartment houses) areas can be seen at the northwest edge of D4, southwest edge of D9 and D16.

In the South-Western Area, D3 was planned as a low-rise residential area by the Kabul Municipality. The same kind of planned residential areas also can be seen in the east parts of D5 and D6. The areas appears to be well built and planned once, but almost all houses were destroyed in the civil war. Rather poorly built housing areas appear to expand to the hillsides in the northeast and east part of South-Western Area.

Other large residential areas are located in the west of D8 and D12. D12 is the large-scale Azan Qimat housing project site. The housing site is located remotely from the urban area. Furthermore, adequate public infrastructure has not been served in the housing site.

7) Agricultural area

Most of the agricultural area can be seen in the suburban areas. Some cultivated lands are surrounded by walls, and some are difficult to recognize as cultivated land since they look like unutilized land. The suburban area mixes with agricultural land and unutilized land like desert land. Another type of agricultural land use is located in spaces of residential area.

(2) South-Western Area

As mentioned above, the major land uses are explained as follows in the South-Western Area.

• Higher educational facility area

• Planned residential area (where buildings are completely destroyed)

• Low-rise residential area: the houses are almost all built using local style and materials (adobe bricks).

• Huge desert land (unutilized area)

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Figure 2.2 Existing Land Use Pattern

Source: AIMS and JICA Study Team

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Table 2.2 Areas of Major Land Uses Distr

ct Traffic zone

Residential

Commer cial

Government

Public facility

Industry/ Warehouse Park Special 1) Airport Others 2) Hills Total

1 D1 210.3 35.1 10.5 5.1 19.8 61.7 98.9 441.4 2 D2A 40.7 12.7 141.7 18.6 5.0 18.2 16.0 15.1 268.0 D2B 137.8 4.9 1.3 65.6 118.5 328.1 3 D3 413.1 2.5 21.8 172.6 3.9 13.2 85.0 77.5 789.6 4 D4 597.2 38.7 17.0 8.7 27.9 44.4 97.8 203.2 169.9 1,204.8 5 D5A 398.5 2.5 3.7 90.5 8.1 14.8 168.3 137.0 823.4 D5B 481.2 5.2 2.6 45.6 1,649.0 572.8 2,756.4 6 D6A 426.6 9.0 1.4 6.9 125.9 0.0 569.8 D6B 332.1 7.2 4.9 3.4 64.7 1,230.9 550.2 2,193.4 D6C 352.0 7.2 2,601.5 695.6 3,656.3 7 D7A 254.2 2.9 7.3 27.2 21.6 162.1 389.7 865.0 D7B 246.7 0.2 9.6 2.2 288.0 0.0 546.7 D7C 204.1 0.2 0.6 11.9 1,434.4 1,223.3 2,874.5 8 D8A 506.0 3.1 18.9 43.6 615.7 568.0 1,755.3 D8B 212.1 1.1 13.9 4,093.1 177.9 4,498.1 9 D9A 219.3 1.3 24.2 1.2 5.3 55.8 133.2 0.0 440.3 D9B 273.2 24.3 85.9 1.6 1,414.5 0.0 1,799.5

10 D10A 184.2 2.6 11.3 51.2 5.7 36.9 35.8 327.7 D10B 549.0 3.5 425.2 44.8 1,022.5 D10C 183.4 1.8 67.1 9.0 448.9 918.8 939.2 2,568.2

11 D11 306.7 11.2 9.3 27.9 135.8 638.5 1,129.4 12 D12 627.5 1.2 7.8 17.9 1,954.2 0.0 2,608.6 15 D15 863.4 29.0 20.0 41.7 900.9 1,855.0 16 D16A 87.5 2.9 12.9 9.8 9.6 67.9 44.4 235.0

D16B 296.8 17.6 924.8 300.8 1,540.0 Kabul City 8,403.6 186.0 301.6 419.5 251.0 167.2 403.9 448.9 18,816.5 7,698.8 37,097.0 SW Area 3,108.5 36.9 34.2 308.0 15.4 53.6 127.3 0.0 7,745.1 3,646.1 15,075.1

Table 2.3 Major Land Use Pattern Distri Traffic Residen Commer Govern Public Industry/ Park Special 1) Airport Others 2) Hills Total

1 D1 47.6% 8.0% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 1.2% 4.5% 0.0% 14.0% 22.4% 100.0%2 D2A 15.2% 4.7% 52.9% 6.9% 0.0% 1.9% 6.8% 0.0% 6.0% 5.6% 100.0% D2B 42.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 36.1% 100.0%3 D3 52.3% 0.3% 2.8% 21.9% 0.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 9.8% 100.0%4 D4 49.6% 3.2% 1.4% 0.7% 2.3% 3.7% 8.1% 0.0% 16.9% 14.1% 100.0%5 D5A 48.4% 0.3% 0.4% 11.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 20.4% 16.6% 100.0% D5B 17.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 59.8% 20.8% 100.0%6 D6A 74.9% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 22.1% 0.0% 100.0% D6B 15.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 56.1% 25.1% 100.0% D6C 9.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 71.2% 19.0% 100.0%7 D7A 29.4% 0.3% 0.8% 3.1% 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 18.7% 45.1% 100.0% D7B 45.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 52.7% 0.0% 100.0% D7C 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 49.9% 42.6% 100.0%8 D8A 28.8% 0.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 35.1% 32.4% 100.0% D8B 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 91.0% 4.0% 100.0%9 D9A 49.8% 0.3% 5.5% 0.3% 1.2% 0.0% 12.7% 0.0% 30.3% 0.0% 100.0% D9B 15.2% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 78.6% 0.0% 100.0%

10 D10A 56.2% 0.8% 3.4% 15.6% 0.0% 1.7% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 100.0% D10B 53.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 41.6% 4.4% 100.0% D10C 7.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.4% 17.5% 35.8% 36.6% 100.0%

11 D11 27.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 12.0% 56.5% 100.0%12 D12 24.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 74.9% 0.0% 100.0%15 D15 46.5% 1.6% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 48.6% 100.0%16 D16A 37.2% 1.2% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 4.2% 4.1% 0.0% 28.9% 18.9% 100.0% D16B 19.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 60.1% 19.5% 100.0%

Kabul City 22.7% 0.5% 0.8% 1.1% 0.7% 0.5% 1.1% 1.2% 50.7% 20.8% 100.0%SW Area 20.6% 0.2% 0.2% 2.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 51.4% 24.2% 100.0%

Note: 1) Including military area, official use and international organization use areas 2) Including agricultural area, desert area, unutilized area and the others Source: JICA Study Team

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Table 2.4 Land Use Characteristics of the Districts District Characteristics D1 − Old Kabul

− Commercial center of Kabul city D2 − East: National administrative center

− West: Residential area, Road side commercial area D3 − Hill side residential area

− Educational facilities (Kabul University, high schools) − Former planned residential area

D4 − Residential area − Long road side commercial area

D5 − East: Hill side and low-rise residential area − West: Low/Medium-rise residential area − Former planned residential area

D6 − East: densely built-up residential area − Center: Low-rise residential area, Agricultural area/Unutilized area − West: Low-rise residential area, Agricultural area/Unutilized area − Neighborhood commercial area on streets

D7 − East: Hill side residential area − West: Low-rise residential area − South: Scattered residential area, Agricultural area/Unutilized area

D8 − East: Low-rise residential area − West: Agricultural area, Unutilized area

D9 − East: Industrial area − West: Medium-rise residential (apartment houses) area

D10 − South: Low-rise residential area − Center: Low-rise residential area, Agricultural area, − North: Medium-rise residential (apartment houses) area, Airport, Unutilized area

D11 − Low-rise residential area (planned area) − Neighborhood commercial area on streets

D12 − Low-rise residential area (planned area)

D15 − Low-rise residential area (planned area) − Neighborhood commercial area on streets

D16 − East: Low-rise residential area − West: Medium-rise (apartment houses) residential area


2.1.3. Existing Building Conditions

(1) Structural condition

The buildings of South-Western area, District 3 were mostly destroyed in the town and over 50 percent of buildings are under bad condition. In District 5 40 percent are in bad condition, District 6 over 20 percent and District 7 less than 20 percent. However, it is noteworthy because residents are still living under such conditions of buildings and renovating the structure by themselves even when their buildings are mostly destroyed. According to the scope of work, level of building damage should be identified in 5 categories. However, the Study Team curried out building conditions survey in 3 categories which is the standard of Kabul Municipality and due to time limitation for the survey.

The study team conducted building condition survey through questionnaire for head of Gozar (Wakil-e-Gozar).

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(2) Building use by Gozar

The building use in South-Western area is residential use in general. Especially District 5 has 16 Gozars with 100 percent residential use out of 30 Gozars. Only a few Gozars have commercial use or industry/factory/warehouse use in South-Western Area.

The survey results are summarized in Figure 2.3.

(3) Public and neighborhood facility conditions in South-Western Area

The Study Team surveyed for public and neighborhood facility conditions through the head of Gozars in each district. According to the survey, almost every Gozar has mosque, electricity sub station and public well with hand pump equipment. However most of wells are in bad condition because of being dried up or having polluted water for a shallow well. A very few facilities are in good condition. For example, the mosque is well maintained by the local residents.

Figure 2.3 Structure Condition


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(4) Public and neighborhood facility in whole city

The Study Team conducted the survey on a map (1:15,000 scale) to identify public and neighborhood facilities for whole City due to time limitation and being manpower consuming. Therefore, the results of the survey focused on facility condition and damage. These factors were concentrated on in the South-Western Area as much as possible.

The most outstanding characteristic of the city are the many central government offices located in District 2: Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Planning, Ministry of Rural Development, Ministry of Justice, Ministry of Education, President’s house and King’s Palace also Kabul Municipality. The biggest market of Chandawal is located in District 1 along the Kabul River.

On the other hand, branch office and neighborhood facility such as police station, fire brigade, post office, market and commercial sub-center are dispersed into each district. It is advisable that solutions solve typical urban problems of traffic congestion at central area as well as mitigate negative environmental impacts. However, most of these public facilities in the district have serious problems to receive sufficient basic utility service of water and power.

2.1.4. Donor’s Activity for Urban Reconstruction

There are many international donors assisting reconstruction of urban function of Kabul city. However, most of the donors concentrate on the subject of infrastructure rehabilitation program/project and education, health care and public welfare due to their urgency in people’s daily life. There are no other donors to conduct urban planning except this Study. Each donor’s activities in the sector of infrastructure are explained in Table 2.5.

Table 2.5 Donor Assistance Information: Approved Projects Organized by NDP (National Development Program) (As of July 20, 2002)

Budget (Million USD) Project Title

Category

Donor

Implementing Organization

Project Total

Commit-ments

Disburse-ments

Water Sanitation Emergency Program

Urban water supply & sanitation

EC

ACF

1.223

0.516 0.707

Rehabilitation of Baghe Babur Urban development & management

Germany

Aga Khan Foundation

0.38

0.380 0

Water and Sanitation Program Urban water supply & sanitation

United Kingdom

Aga Khan Foundation

0.139

0.139 0.139

Improvement of Water Supply Urban water supply & sanitation

United Kingdom

CAFOD

0.071

0.071 0.071

Urban Infrastructure Urban development & management

EC

CARE

0.900

0.450 0.450

Kabul Water Urban water supply & sanitation

USAID

CARE

0.500

0.355 0.355

Reconstruction of School, Clinic and Shelter (PC beam production & distribution)

Urban development & management

EC

DACAAR

0.546

0.242 0.242

Provision of Clean Drinking Water, Sanitation and Hygiene Education


EC

DACAAR

6.258

1.228 1.228

Rehabilitation of Water Supply Urban development & management

Germany

KfW

15.100

15.100 15.100

Rebuilding Communities in Urban Afghanistan


UNDP

UN Habitat

2.530

2.530 2.530

Rehabilitation of Waste Management and Sanitation


UNDP

UN Habitat

4.900

4.490 4.400

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Nation-wide Clean-Up Campaign for Afghanistan New Year


USAID/ OFDA

UN Habitat

0.383

-

-

Urgent Repairs for Municipal Administration


DfiD

UN Habitat

0.150

- -

Supporting Essential Municipal Administration


EC

UN Habitat

1.150

- -

Urban Infrastructure Urban development & management

EC

UNDP

1.760

1.760 1.760

Water Supply, Environmental Sanitation and Hygiene Education in Afghanistan


USAID Norway, UK Sweden

UNICEF

2.500

2.500 2.500

Cash for Work: Reconstruction of Portions of 4 Canal Systems


Aga Khan

-

0.032

0.032 0.000

Construction of 100 Wells Urban water supply & sanitation

Aga Khan

-

0.112

0.112 0.112

Deepening of 75 Wells Urban water supply & sanitation

Aga Khan

-

0.046

0.046 0.046

Reconstruction Water Supply Project: 1 WSS, 60 Wells


Aga Khan

-

0.307

0.307 0.307

Shelter/ Agriculture/ Infrastructure Housing

USAID

GOAL

0.750

0.600 0.600

Municipal Solid Waste- Kabul Urban water supply & sanitation

World Bank

UN Habitat

0.250

- -

Municipal Solid Waste- Kabul Urban water supply & sanitation

USAID OFDA

UN Habitat

0.420

- -

Urgent Rehabilitation Support Program: Phase 1

Education, Health, Broadcasting

Japan

JICA

8.987

8.987 -

Road Rehabilitation in Kabul City: Pothole Repairer Work


Germany

KfW

3.383

- -

Medical Support: Supply Medicines Health

Germany

KfW

5.300

- -

Rehabilitation of 12 Schools in and around Kabul City

Education

Germany

KfW

5.300

Rehabilitation of Power Supply Network: Transmission Line w/Sub Station, Med. & Low Voltage Line within S-W, Installation of Street Lighting

Electricity

EU Germany

KfW

10.600

- -

Capacity Building for Ministry of Planning

Urban water supply

Germany

KfW

-

- -

Note: ACF(Action Contre la Faim= NGO), CARE (Care Afghan= NGO), DACAAR(Danish Community for Aid to Afghanistan = NGO), KfW(German Development Bank), GOAL (NGO), EU(European Union), EC(European Commission)

Source: AACA (Afghan Assistance Coordination Authority), KfW, JICA Study Team

2.2. Population

2.2.1. Existing Conditions

(1) Previous population survey

The population of Kabul city is very unclear at present. Nobody can tell how much population the city has without a population survey. For the system of population survey, the Central Statistics Office of Afghanistan (CSO) is in charge of the roll. The latest survey was conducted in 1999. CSO and Afghanistan Computer Center (ACC) carried out the survey funded by UNOCHA. The following past population surveys were mainly done by CSO.

• 1979: National Population Census

• 1985-1986: Kabul Population Survey

• 1999-2000: Kabul Population Survey

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(2) Available information

The Study Team obtained the following information about the population of Kabul city.

• Population 2002 from Kabul Municipality (adjusted for the 14 districts in the city).

• Results of the population surveys in 1999/2000 and 1985/1986 from CSO

• National Population Census 1979 from CSO

• Others: Statistical Year Book (1984 – 1987) from CSO

CSO estimated the population of Afghanistan 2001-2002 based on the population of Afghanistan in 1997. The estimation, however, does not consider the present situation of the districts, especially for returnees. Therefore, the estimation was not used in the study.

(3) Adjustment of the information

The Study Team used the information from Kabul Municipality as the present population for the study. The Study Team, however, adjusted some district’s population. In particular, the population of District 7 seemed to be too small compared to the population of 1999/2000. Therefore, the population of District 7 was adjusted at the figure equivalent to the one of 1999/2000. The population of the city would be around 1.85 million in the middle of 2002.

Table 2.6 Population of Kabul City Year 1985/1986 1999/2000 1) 2002

District Population survey Population survey Kabul Municipality 1 84,824 85,530 71,560 2 47,617 75,048 90,608 3 85,552 94,245 58,000 4 113,272 183,544 252,354 5 128,148 150,631 130,000 6 152,218 204,702 213,993 7 147,280 168,618 2) 170,000 8 102,753 99,300 156,408 9 74,564 149,251 119,435 10 106,342 155,805 203,735 11 52,952 87,054 95,100 12 0 18,346 15,086 15 158,576 240,956 200,000 16 47,191 67,982 88,599

Total City 1,301,289 1,781,012 1,864,878 Total (SW) 513,198 618,196 571,993

Note: 1) the population is up to May (before the Loya Jirga). 2) Original figure from the Kabul Municipality was 64,000. It seemed too small to the data of 1999, and one from

interview of the District 7 office. Therefore, it was assumed to be equivalent to the population of 1999. Source: Kabul Municipality, CSO and JICA Study Team

Two points are mentioned below for the present population. These will be important to estimate the population framework 2005. The volume of returnees to Kabul city should cause a sharp growth in population.

• The figures are before the Loya Jirga (up to May 2002).

• The returnees to Kabul city up to May are included in the figures.

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2.2.2. Existing Population Density

(1) Difficulties of obtain of administrative area information

Administrative area is one of the major units to calculate population densities. Sizes and boundaries usually can be obtained from a statistics office or municipality. However, the information of Kabul city seems to be in confusion. It was very difficult to obtain the accurate and unified information for the Study Team. The major problems are that the Study Team was not able to obtain:

• area sizes of districts

• united boundaries in accurate scale.

Moreover, considerable sub-districts have been changed in their names, boundaries and even the number of sub-districts in a district.

In addition, UN: AIMS and UNCHS have been supporting the municipality about administrative boundaries of the districts and sub-districts for several years even though they do not have united and accurate information for the boundaries.

(2) Population density

1) Present situations of the city

The population density distribution shows clear patterns in the city. The northeast residential area from the ridgeline of the hills has a rather higher density. At the foot of hills, Districts 1, 2, 4 have over 200 persons per hectare density. These dense districts make a zone stretching northwest and southeast. District 15 also has a density at over 200 persons per hectare. The neighboring districts follow these districts in the high population density.

For the South-Western Area, density appears rather lower than that of the northeast area. Nevertheless, the areas at the foot of hills are higher in the South-Western Area. On either side of Darul Aman St., there are the highest density areas in the South-Western Area.

Moreover, with respect to net-densities (the densities in residential areas), the South-Western Area actually shows the presence of dense residential area although the districts appear rather lower in overall density.

Figure 2.4 shows the present population densities in the city.

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Figure 2.4 Population Densities of the Districts

Note: A population density is to a district area total excluding the hills and the airport. District areas were measured on the map form AIMS. Source: CSO, AIMS and JICA Study Team

2) Present situation of the South-Western Area

a. Restrictions of sub-districts densities

As mentioned above, the population information has been in confusion the same as other information of Kabul city. The information of population by sub-districts that the Study Team was able to obtain was only 1999 information from CSO. In addition, the information of sub-district boundaries 1999 was from the municipality. Both of them were made with UN’s support. Therefore, the study team used the information of sub-districts to calculate the population densities. The following, however, should be noted:

• The population density physically can not be surveyed in the sub-districts.

• The population density can show the general features in the districts as an indicator of the districts characteristics.

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Table 2.7 Population Densities of the Districts Population/ Density Area (ha) Population/ Density Distri

ct Traffic zone Total Habitable 1) Not

habitable 2)2002

PopulationDensity-1 3)

(p/ha) Density-2 4)

(p/ha) Difference of

dens.5) 2005

Population Density-3 3)

(p/ha) 1 D1 441.4 342.5 98.9 71,560 209 292 1.40 95,582 2792 D2A 268.0 252.9 15.1 66,518 263 1,246 4.74 81,472 322 D2B 328.1 209.6 118.5 24,090 115 169 1.47 29,506 1413 D3 789.6 712.1 77.5 58,000 81 140 1.71 74,858 1054 D4 1,204.8 1,034.9 169.9 252,354 244 397 1.63 306,152 2965 D5A 823.4 686.4 137.0 39,550 58 99 1.71 49,718 72 D5B 2,756.4 2,183.6 572.8 90,450 41 186 4.49 113,701 526 D6A 569.8 569.8 0.0 92,773 163 213 1.31 117,461 206 D6B 2,193.4 1,643.2 550.2 75,481 46 222 4.84 95,568 58 D6C 3,656.3 2,960.7 695.6 45,739 15 127 8.24 57,911 207 D7A 865.0 475.3 389.7 42,128 89 164 1.85 52,852 111 D7B 546.7 546.7 0.0 80,842 148 327 2.21 101,420 186 D7C 2,874.5 1,651.2 1,223.3 47,029 28 230 8.08 59,000 368 D8A 1,755.3 1,187.3 568.0 124,882 105 245 2.33 187,942 158 D8B 4,498.1 4,320.2 177.9 31,526 7 148 20.26 47,445 119 D9A 440.3 440.3 0.0 83,218 189 377 2.00 124,833 284 D9B 1,799.5 1,799.5 0.0 36,217 20 133 6.59 54,327 30

10 D10A 327.7 291.9 35.8 19,136 66 102 1.56 23,554 81 D10B 1,022.5 977.7 44.8 149,910 153 271 1.77 184,520 189 D10C 2,568.2 1,180.1 1,388.1 34,689 29 187 6.37 42,697 36

11 D11 1,129.4 490.9 638.5 95,100 194 299 1.54 150,898 30712 D12 2,608.6 2,608.6 0.0 15,086 6 24 4.15 21,686 815 D15 1,855.0 954.1 900.9 200,000 210 224 1.07 219,509 23016 D16A 235.0 190.6 44.4 32,500 171 360 2.11 36,016 189 D16B 1,540.0 1,239.2 300.8 56,099 45 189 4.18 62,170 50

Kabul City 37,097.0 28,949.3 8,147.7 1,864,878 64 217 3.37 2,390,798 83SW Area 15,075.1 11,429.0 3,646.1 571,993 50 182 3.63 722,489 63

Note: 1) The word "habitable area" is definitely used in the study. The areas were calculated by excluding "not habitable area"

2) Including hill area and airport area 3) These are semi-gross densities: the densities of habitable areas 4) These are net-densities: the densities of residential areas including commercial areas 5) Differences between the density-1 and 2 Source: JICA Study Team

b. The present situations

The highest population density areas concentrate at the center of the South-Western Area. The residential areas seem to be historically made and grew along the Kabul River and the Chamchamast River. Other dense areas are on main streets and hillsides.

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Figure 2.5 Population Densities of the South-Western Area

Note: Population density is for a total sub-district area. Source: CSO, AIMS and JICA Study Team

2.2.3. Population Framework

(1) Year 2005

The Study Team estimated total returnees to Kabul city at around 730,000 up to 2003. In addition, the Study Team estimated the number of returnees up to May (before Loya Jirga) and after June. The number of returnees up to May was estimated at 360,000. The number would be included in the population 2002 mentioned the above chapter. The remaining 370,000 returnees would be coming back to Kabul city up to 2003. The figures include IDPs, spontaneous refugees and facilitated refugees.

These estimations are based on information from UNHCR and interviews with UNHCR. UNHCR has been investigating the number of returnees in units of families at four cardinal points of Kabul city. They weekly report the number of returnees to Kabul city.

Several points regarding the situation of returnees to Kabul city are as follows:

• Almost all returnees (over 90%) are former residents of the Kabul city.

• UNHCR is going to facilitate around 1.2 millions refugees up to 2003, and half of them (600,000) are expected to be coming back to Kabul city.

Other considerations for the estimations are:

• Annual population growth rate from 2002 to 2005 is 2.41 % from CSO survey 1999/2000.

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• Returnees distribution rates to the districts in the city are also known from the interviews with UNHCR.

Table 2.8 Population Framework Year/District 2002 2005

1 71,560 95,5822 90,608 110,9783 58,000 74,8584 252,354 306,1525 130,000 163,4196 213,993 270,9407 170,000 213,2728 156,408 235,3879 119,435 179,16010 203,735 250,77111 95,100 150,89812 15,086 21,68615 200,000 219,50916 88,599 98,186

Total City 1,864,878 2,390,798Total (SW) 571,993 722,489

Source: Kabul Municipality, CSO and JICA Study Team computation

(2) Year 2020

1) Assumption-1 (by annual growth rate)

The Study Team tried to calculate the future population of Kabul city based on assumptions of annual growth rates from 2005 to 2020. The assumptions of annual growth rates were considered to be gradually declining. In addition, the estimation excluded 10 % facilitated refugees since they can be expected to go out from the city up to 2010. Their population also grew the same as the Kabul city population from 2002 (at 60,000) to 2010 (at 70,000).

• 2005-2010: 2.0%

• 2010-2015: 2.0%

• 2015-2020: 1.5%

Table 2.9 Population Framework 2020 Year 2002 2005 2010 2020

Kabul City 1,864,878 2,390,798 2,570,000 3,060,000Source: Kabul Municipality, CSO and JICA Study Team computation

2) Assumption-2 (scale as a capital city)

Table 2.10 Projection of the Future Population

Population Census Statistical Year Book Survey Projections Year 1979 1984 1985 1986 1999 2010 2020

Afghanistan Total 14,551 15,870 16,140 16,430 21,923 1) 31,308 1) 40,206Kabul City 931 1,179 1,236 1,297 1,781 2,509 3,001(Share of National total) 6.4% 7.4% 7.7% 8.1% 8.1% 8.0% 7.5%Annual growth rate 4.8% 4.8% 4.9% 2.5% 3.2% 1.8%

Note: 1) The projections of national population are from UN. Source: CSO, UN and JICA Study Team computation

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The Study Team also tried to calculate future population in another way. A correlation formula (logarithm curve) was used in the correlation of past population volume between national population and Kabul city as shown in the table below. The results of the calculation showed 3 million population of Kabul city in 2020.

3) Framework

The two ways of estimations showed similar results. The Study Team took the first one (3.06 million population in 2020) for the study. However, argument on the future population of Kabul city is very difficult under the situation that even the existing population is not clear. Movement of a considerable number of facilitated refugees is also uncertain although they will give a large impact to the future population growth. In general, more accurate population data should be used for the estimation as fundamental data.

4) Distribution to the districts

Average residential areas are designed over the city in the Master Plan. Most districts can be anticipated to raise their population densities (semi-gross) in the future. The densities, however, should decrease for some districts since the Master Plan plans to convert some residential area to other land use in some districts. The population densities of these districts should be conservative or declining.

In addition, mid-to-high-rise residential areas are also designed over the city. Percentages of areas of low-rise residential areas and the mid-to-high-rise residential areas are around 50% and 50% respectively in the plan. This policy also shows that most districts can be assumed to raise their population densities.

Therefore, the Study Team considered the following factors in order to distribute the future population to the districts.

• The semi-gross population densities are main indicators for the distribution

• The other main indicators are planned residential area and net-population densities

• Difference of sizes between the present residential area and planned residential area since the Master Plan shows large conversion of the land use for some districts (D1, D2, D3, D9 and D10) to reduce the residential area.

• Rates of low-rise and high-rise housing areas were considered for the future population densities. The rates show land use policies for the residential area in Master Plan.

• Consideration of the present and 2005 situations of net-population densities since high densities now should be considered to decline in the future.

The distribution is shown in Table 2.11.

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Table 2.11 Population Distribution 2020 2002 2003 2020

District

Traffic zone

2002 Population

Density-1 1) (p/ha)

Density-2 2) (p/ha)

2005 Population

Density-3 1) (p/ha)

Density-4 2) (p/ha)

2020 Population

Density-1 1) (p/ha)

Low-rise residential

High-rise residential

1 D1 71,560 209 292 95,582 279 389 86,000 250 0% 100%2 D2A 66,518 263 1,246 81,472 322 1,526 61,000 250 0% 100% D2B 24,090 115 169 29,506 141 207 29,000 140 87% 13%

3 D3 58,000 81 140 74,858 105 180 78,000 110 0% 100%4 D4 252,354 244 397 306,152 296 481 259,000 250 46% 54%5 D5A 39,550 58 99 49,718 72 124 69,000 100 45% 55% D5B 90,450 41 186 113,701 52 234 218,000 100 59% 41%

6 D6A 92,773 163 213 117,461 206 270 142,000 250 39% 61% D6B 75,481 46 222 95,568 58 282 246,000 150 43% 57% D6C 45,739 15 127 57,911 20 161 118,000 40 49% 51%

7 D7A 42,128 89 164 52,852 111 206 71,000 150 48% 52% D7B 80,842 148 327 101,420 186 411 137,000 250 21% 79% D7C 47,029 28 230 59,000 36 289 83,000 50 40% 60%

8 D8A 124,882 105 245 187,942 158 369 237,000 200 22% 78% D8B 31,526 7 148 47,445 11 223 216,000 50 56% 44%

9 D9A 83,218 189 377 124,833 284 566 110,000 250 0% 100% D9B 36,217 20 133 54,327 30 199 54,000 30 0% 100%

10 D10A 19,136 66 102 23,554 81 126 29,000 100 13% 87% D10B 149,910 153 271 184,520 189 334 196,000 200 38% 62% D10C 34,689 29 187 42,697 36 231 47,000 40 0% 100%

11 D11 95,100 194 299 150,898 307 475 123,000 250 50% 50%12 D12 15,086 6 24 21,686 8 34 52,000 20 65% 35%15 D15 200,000 210 224 219,509 230 246 239,000 250 53% 47%16 D16A 32,500 171 360 36,016 189 398 36,000 190 0% 100%

D16B 56,099 45 189 62,170 50 209 124,000 100 29% 63%Kabul City 1,864,878 64 217 2,390,798 83 278 3,060,000 106 43% 57%SW Area 571,993 50 182 722,489 63 230 1,162,000 102 42% 58%

Note: 1) These are semi-gross densities: the densities of habitable areas 2) These are net-densities: the densities of residential areas including commercial areas Source: JICA Study Team

2.2.4. Future Population Density (2005)

(1) Whole city

The northeast area would anticipate more pressure by the growth of population than the South-Western Area. However, the pressure caused by high population growth of the returnees would expand to the South-Western Area.

(2) South-Western Area

The population density would increase more in the central area. The situation would expand to the adjacent areas.

URSP-SWPT

28

Figure 2.6 Future Population Densities

Note: Population density is for a total district area excluding the hills and the airport. Source: CSO, AIMS and JICA Study Team

Figure 2.7 Future Densities in the South-Western Area 2005

Note: Population density is for a total sub-district area. Source: CSO, AIMS and JICA Study Team

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