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TABLEOFCONTENTS

INTRODUCTION 2

DIGITALIZATIONANDINDUSTRY4.0–ADEFINITION 2THREEDEGREESOFDIGITALIZEDMANUFACTURING. 6INDUSTRY4.0ANDSUSTAINABILITY 8

1. INDUSTRY4.0INTHECONTEXTOFGLOBALDEVELOPMENT 10

1.1LOOKINGPASTTHEEUROPEANECONOMY–THREATSFORDEVELOPINGNATIONS. 101.2SUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENTGOALS–IMPLICATIONSFORINDUSTRY4.0. 12

2. HUMANRESOURCESINTIMESOFINDUSTRIALTRANSFORMATION 13

2.1SMARTMANUFACTURING–HIGHLYSKILLEDWORKERSCOMBININGPRACTICALANDITKNOWLEDGE 142.2SKILLSGAPSANDSKILLSMISFIT 16

3. SECTORALVARIATIONSFORINDUSTRY4.0 19

3.1LOWIMMEDIATEIMPACTOFINDUSTRY4.0–HEAVYINDUSTRIES,INTENSIVEMANUALLABOUR:PARTICULARIMPACTSINBASEMETALS,MINING,ANDTEXTILEGARMENTSANDLEATHER 203.2MEDIUMIMPACTOFINDUSTRY4.0–DIGITALIZATIONINALREADYHEAVILYAUTOMATEDSECTORS:PARTICULARIMPACTSINAEROSPACE,AUTOMOTIVE,CHEMICALS,MATERIALS,ANDPHARMACEUTICALS,PULPANDPAPER,RUBBER,SHIPBUILDINGANDSHIPBREAKING 243.3HIGHIMPACTOFINDUSTRY4.0–MOSTDIRECTIMPACTSONINDUSTRIALSECTORS:PARTICULARIMPACTSIN,ENERGY,ICT,ELECTRONICSANDELECTRICAL,MECHANICALENGINEERING,ANDINDUSTRIALL’SWHITECOLLARWORKERS 26

4. CURRENTANDFUTUREIMPACTSOFINDUSTRY4.0ONUNIONACTIONSANDACTIVITIES 29

4.1.CHANGINGMEMBERSHIPPROFILE,RECRUITMENTANDUNIONSTRUCTURES 304.2.COLLECTIVEBARGAININGANDSOCIALDIALOGUE 314.3.INDUSTRIALRELATIONS: 31

5. WORKERANDTRADEUNIONRIGHTS 32

6. AJUSTTRANSITION 34

7. CONCLUSIONS 35

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Introduction

DigitalizationandIndustry4.0–adefinition

Technologicalinnovationshavechangedindustrialmanufacturingsincethe1900s.Andwhilethisisnothingnew,forthepastyears,digitalizationhasbeenwidelydiscussedbycompaniesandgovernmentsasthenewtransformationofmanufacturingasweknowit.Morerecently,thetermIndustry4.0ortheFourthIndustrialRevolutionhasbeenusedalmostsynonymously.SomeofthisterminologyhasitsoriginswiththeDeutscheForschungszentrumfürKünstlicheIntelligenz(DFKI,orGermanArtificialIntelligenceResearchInstitute)althoughitmustbesaidthatnoteveryoneagreeswiththeiranalysis.However,theterminologyhastakenrootevenifdefinitionsofthesetermshaveremainedfairlyvague–theyrangefromcompaniesusingtheinternetforcustomer-tailoredsolutionstoindirectserviceprovidersviaplatformworkersorcrowdworkersorthe“gigeconomy”,totheuseofawiderangeoftechnologiesfrom3Dprinting(additivemanufacturing),todrones,toadvancedroboticsinmanufacturing–andmuchmore.Indeed,inadditiontodigitalization,electronicinformationandcommunicationstechnologies,and3Dprintingamorecompletelistofemergingscienceandengineeringdevelopmentsincludesphotonics,biotechnology,nanotechnology,microtechnology,advancedmaterials,andradicalchangestoenergyandenvironmentaltechnologies–andmore.Allofthesearecomingon-streamrapidlyandwilldefinitelyhaveanimpact-potentiallyadisruptiveone–ontraditionalindustrialmanufacturing.

Industry4.0maynotbetheidealtermforthechangesthatareapproaching,butgivenitswidespreaduse,nosubstitutetermislikelytogaintraction.ForthepurposesofIndustriALLGlobalUnion,Industry4.0isusedasalabelfortheadoptionofanyofarangeofemergingadvancedandpotentiallydisruptivetechnologiesincluding,butnotlimitedto,digitalizationandartificialintelligence.RecentuseofthetermIndustry4.0goesbacktoaresearchassociationoftheGermangovernmentandaHighTechStrategyProjectunderthesamenameledbytheGermanMinistryforResearch,butithasfoundmoreuseintheEnglishspeakingworldsincethen.InDecember2015,theWorldEconomicForumhadtheirmeetinginDavostodiscussthisissue,theEconomistcameoutwithaspecialissueaboutIndustry4.0,andEurofound,aresearchbranchoftheEuropeanUnion,hasproducedseveralreportsonthefutureofworktouchingonsomeoftheconsequencesofIndustry4.0onworkers.ThemostcommonsummaryprobablystemsfromtheGermanArtificialIntelligenceResearchInstitute(figure1).

Obviously,thereisalwaysaninteractionbetweentechnology,businessinterests,andsocialstructures.However,itshouldnotbeassumedthatitisalwaystechnologythatdriveschangeinaunidirectionalfashion;onthecontraryitistheentirepicturethatshouldbeexamined.Whatsocialandeconomicenvironmentisthetechnologicalchangetakingplacewithin?Whatpossiblepressurescoulditexertonsociety,theeconomy,ortheenvironment?Sustainabilitywillresultfromintegrativethinking.

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Figure1:The4IndustrialRevolutions(source:GermanArtificialIntelligenceResearchInstitute,translated)

Firstprogrammablecontrollingofmanufacturing,1969

4threvolutionBasedonCyber-PhysicalSystems(CPS)

Firstconveyerbelts,slaughter-housesofCincinnati,1870

3rdrevolutionElectronicsandITleadtofurtherautomationofindustrialproduction

Firstmechanicalweavingloom,1784

2ndrevolutionDivisionoflabourmademassproductionwiththehelpofelectricalpowerpossible

1strevolutionIntroductionofmechanicalproductionplantswithhydroandsteampowerTimeuEndofthe18thcentury

Beginningofthe20thcentury

Beginningofthe1970s

Today

(onthediagram,noticethatthefrequencyandrapidityoftransformativeindustrialrevolutionscouldbeincreasing:forexample1strevolution1750-1900,2nd1900-1970,3rd1970-2005,4th2005-)

Newdevelopmentsintechnologyhavesparkedindustrialrevolutionsofvaryingdurationsthroughoutthecenturies,withimportantresponsesfromworkersandtheirspokespersonseachtime.Whilepreviousindustrialrevolutionshaveultimatelyledtoincreasesinemployment,whichmaynotbetheresultthistime.Indeed,previousindustrialrevolutionshaveevengivenrisetoalternativeeconomicandpoliticaltheories(forexample,communism)andsocialstructures(forexample,thewelfarestate).Thisdiscussionpaperfocusesherenotonlyondigitalizationgenerally,butonanyindustrialinnovationsandinventionsthathavethepotentialtoradicallychangeeitherproductionorproduct,andmoreimportantlyworkers’circumstancesandindustrialworkandmanufacturingingeneral.TheconsequencesofIndustry4.0andits

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resultingtransformationofoureconomyaresovariousthatforthesakeofdiscussingpotentialthreats,benefitsandsolutions,afocusonindustrialmanufacturing(anditsvaluechain)isimportant.ThisisalsowhatmakesIndustry4.0ausefultermandabasisofdiscussionforindustrialunions.

Changesinindustrialproduction,newtechnologiesandtheirimpactonworkersandworkarenothingnew–theintroductionofthesteamenginethatstartedindustrialmanufacturinginthefirstrevolution,conveyerbeltsandassemblylinesinthesecond,andtheintroductionofcomputersandelectronicsintoproductioncontrolinthethirdhaveshownthisrepeatedly–andtradeunionshavehadtodealwiththeseoverpastdecadesandcenturies.WhatmakestheFourthIndustrialRevolutiondifferent,isthespeedatwhichitmayexertitspotentialforsignificantandlastingimpactontheeconomy,ondisparitiesbetweenthedevelopingandthedevelopedworld,ontheworkforce,onthepricingofproductsandonoursocieties.Potentially,whentheprocessofautomationitselfbecomesautomatedthankstotechnologieslikeartificialintelligence,therewillbeanaccelerationofchangeunlikeanythingyetwitnessed.

Thusfarthediscussionshavebeenledbybusinessesandgovernments.However,theexistingdiscussionsseemtotakearathereconomy-andtechnology-centeredapproach;ignoringortreatingverylightlythesocialimpacts.Governments–especiallyinEurope–areinvestinginresearchandpilotprojectsforproductionprocessesusingIndustry4.0technologies(effectivelysubsidizingprivatecompanies).However,ananalysisofthesocietalimpacts–boththreatsandopportunities–thefutureofwork,thechangesinthelabourmarket,andthepotentialstrainsonwelfaresystemsandtheexistingeconomicdisparities,seemtobeeitherpushedbackorneglectedcompletelyinthediscussions.Ratherthansimplywaitingforthesocialimpactsweshouldbeengagedinshapingthoseimpacts.Ifwearetoavoidthepitfallsofpreviousiterationsofcapitalistchange,weneedtoinsistthattechnologybehuman-centred;i.e.thatanynewtechnologiesintroducedhavehumansattheircentreasactiveoperatorsanddecisionmakers,notsimplyasmachine-mindersandfeedersofmaterials.Socialimpactscanandmustbefactoredintoanynewsystem.

Somejobswillbetransformed;somewilldisappear;somewillbecreated.Companiesthatdonotadaptmaygooutofbusinessorbeforcedtomergewithothers.Newcompanieswillarise.Somegovernmentswillplayarole;otherwillnot,andwheregovernmentsdointerveneithassofarbeentosubsidizeresearchanddevelopment,oreducationandtraining,withoutdemandingjobguaranteesinreturn.Whileallofthesethingsareconstantlyinplayinourglobaleconomy,thechangesimpliedbyIndustry4.0arelikelytoberadicallyfasterthananythingyetexperienced.

Ofcourse,subsidizingandcheeringforthedigitaltransformationmustnotbetheonlyroleofgovernment.Governmentsmustcreateandenforcelaws,standards,andpublicpolicies,inthepublicinterest,inthisrapidlychangingarea.

Someofthedangersofdigitalisation,andIndustry4.0,havebeenanalyzedbyIndustriAllEuropeanTradeUnion(positionpaper2015-2)asfollows.Theprocessofdigitalisation“concentratespowerandwealthindigitalmarketplaceplatforms,therebydeprivingallother

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companiesalongthevaluechainwiththecapacitytoinvest,toinnovateandtoprovidegoodwagesandworkingconditions;itchallengesthefoundationsofthepermanent,full-timeemploymentrelationshipbasedoncollectiveagreements,becauseallfunctionsofthisrelationship(includingthecontrolofthetask)canbeperformedindividually,automaticallyandremotely(and)consequentlyworkersareplacedinaworld-widecompetitiononprice,andprecariousworkwithindividualisedtermsandconditionsisexploding(freelancers,bogusself-employment,crowd-orplatform-orgig-workers),(and)itopensupunprecedentedpossibilitiesforasymmetricverticalandunilateralcontroloverworkers,butalsoofsymmetric,horizontal,multilateralanddemocraticcooperationbetweenthem.”IndustriALLEuropefurtherstatesitsbeliefthatthetechnologicaldevelopmentsarenotdeterministic,butwiththecorrectpoliciesandactionscanbebenttowardsthecreationofbetterworkplacesandbetterjobs.

Figure2:Thefollowing“smile”graphillustrateshowthemanufacturingstephasbeenunder-rewardedcomparedtootherstagesinthevaluechain.Thisistheresultofbothpublicandprivatepoliciesratherthanalawofnature;andthereforecouldinprinciplebechanged.

PredictionsaboutIndustry4.0anditspotentialimpactsonthelabourmarketsseemtobesignificantlypolarizedandrangefromoptimisticexpectationsofanincreasednumberofhighpayingjobstoratherdarkprognosesofjoblossesofupto35to40percent.Evenallowingforagapbetweentheoryand(future)reality,itissurprisingthatthepredictionsforanindustrialtransformationthatisalreadyhappeningaroundusseemtobeasunreliableasacrystalball.ThegeneralconsequencesofIndustry4.0areinsomewayspredictable,butnumbersinthisscenarioarehardtoprovide:theperformanceoftheeconomyasawhole,governmentspending

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onresearchanddevelopmentandonqualificationandeducationallplayintothesepredictions.DifferentindustrialsectorswillbeaffectedbyIndustry4.0andpotentialautomationverydifferently.Productcomplexity,pricesandexistingqualificationsoftheworkforceintheindustryareindicatorsthatcanhelptopredicttheconsequencesfortheworkforceandthewayweseeworkinthefutureasawhole.ThispaperismeanttoshedsomelightontothedifferentoutcomesofIndustry4.0sothatwemayprepareforthefuturetrendsinindustriesandsectorsimportanttoIndustriALLGlobalUnion.

Threedegreesofdigitalizedmanufacturing.

Theshort,mediumandlong-termeffectsofthedigitalizationofmanufacturing,Industry4.0,arenotentirelyclearbutwillcertainlyvarygreatlydependingondifferentindustriesandthedegreetowhichfactoriesareabletoapplymoderntechnologies.Ingeneral,onecanidentifythreedifferentdegrees:(1)AssistanceSystems;(2)Cyber-physicalSystems;and(3)ArtificialIntelligence.Theseformsoftechnologiescouldbeadoptedseparatelyorsimultaneously,inagivenworkplace.

AssistanceSystemsaretheleastsophisticatedlevelofdigitalizationinfactories.Thesearecomputer-aidedsystems,mostlyusedintheassemblyofproductsthatleadworkersthroughtheirrequiredtasksstepbystep.Someprognosesexpectthatproductivity,andthusrevenuesusingthesetechnologieswillgoupsignificantlywithasimultaneousworkforcedownsizingofupto25percent.

Cyber-PhysicalSystems,isatermthatisbroaderthan,butrelatedto,theso-calledInternetofThings.Forthepurposesofthispaperitreferstoasmartfactorywheremachinesareinterconnected,sometimesself-operatingandwheretheproductionprogressofanypartcanbemonitoredatanytime.Thisrequiresmachinestobeembeddedintoanetwork.Componentsareequippedwithradio-frequencyidentification(RFID)chipsthatnotonlyreportinformationabouttheproductionprogresstomaintenancedepartments,processcontrolpanelsandsometimeseventhecustomer,butalsosendsignalstothemachinetellingitwhatthefinalproductissupposedbeandwhatproductionstepsneedtobetakenuntilthen.Adidashasrecentlyannouncedtheirplansfordigitalizedmanufacturingandoneofthemainattractionsofthisforthecustomeristhatthistechnologyallowsforcustomization:Thecustomercanselectcolors,finishesorfabricsfortheproductthatarethensavedontotheRFIDchipandautomaticallytellthemachinewhichrawmaterialsorpartstouseduringproduction.Asanexample,fortheUSeconomy,researchersexpectaworkforcedownsizinginmanufacturingasawholeduetosmartfactoriesofupto35percent,buttheseprognosesarefairlyvagueonwhatpredictiveindicatorsareusedandhowthedownsizingvariesdependingontheexistingskillsandqualificationoftheworkforceandsectors.Andwhilethistechnologymakescustomized,smallvolumeproductionpossibleatamoderatelylowprice,RFIDchipsare(atleastasof2017)ranginginpricefrombetween12and25cents(U.S.)apieceandwillhencemostlybeusedinhigherpricedandhighvalueaddedproducts.Theiruseinlowtechandlowpricedmassproductionwouldrequirethechipstodroptounderfivecentsapieceinorderforthemtobeeconomical.SmartmachinerythatisnotonlyabletoreadtheseRFIDcodesbutalsocompatible

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withafactory-widenetworkembeddedinanInternetofThingsareacostlyinvestmentaswell,whichcannotbeundertakenbyallcompanies.Smallandmediumenterprises(SMEs)aremostlikelynotabletomaketheseinvestmentswithoutsubsidiesorotherkindofpublicsupport.However,pricesinnewtechnologiesareexpectedtodropsignificantlyinthefutureandrecenttechnologicalprogresshasdevelopedanintermediaryapproach:electronicbridgesthatconnectexistingmachineswitheachother;andwhilethemachinesthemselvesarenotabletosendprogressreportstothecontrolpanel,thebridgesareinterconnectedandreplacethismissingfeatureinthemachines.ThistechnologyhasthepotentialofkeepingSMEsandtheirimminentinnovationscompetitivewithlargemultinationalsthatareabletomakethetransitiontofullsmartmanufacturing.AccordingtotheGermanArtificialIntelligenceInstitute,electronicbridgeshavetheadvantagetocompaniestouptheirreturnsandcouldmeanworkforcereductionsofupto10percent,sincemosttasksstillneedworkersinordertooperatethemachines.Mostoftheserationalizationswilloccurinmaintenancejobssincetheelectronicbridgeswillpickupproblemsassoonastheyoccurandcouldallowmaintenancetobemanagedon-demand.

ArtificialIntelligenceisthemostsophisticated,technology-wise,levelofdigitalizedmanufacturingandalsothemostcontroversial.Andnotjustmanufacturing:artificialintelligenceisbeingappliedtowhite-collarjobs,forexampleinsortingorders,processingcustomerdata,selectingapplicantsforpositionsandintheprocessingandanalysisof“bigdata”.Thediscussionaboutthisanditsuseandimpactoneconomyandworkforceseemsfairlydivided.Forsome,thisisstillaproductoffantasythatisbyfarnotyetreadyforcommercialuse,forothersitisanalreadyevidentfactthatisexpectedtotransformproductionrapidly.First,however,onehastoclarifythatartificialintelligenceisnotequaltoadvancedrobotics–itwillcontrolandenhanceadvancedrobotics,amongotherthings.Theideaofartificialintelligenceis,inaway,similartothatofsmartmanufacturing,wheremachines–robots,inthiscase–areabletocommunicatewithandrespondtoeachother,butinsteadofreportingtoacentralcontrolpanelthatisoperatedbyhighlyskilledworkers,themachinesareabletooperatefullyindependently.Andwhileresearchonthisissueisprogressinganditisprogressingfast,thetechnologyisstillsoexpensivethatitsuseinmanufacturingwilllikelybedelayedand,onceinuse,willfirstaffecthigh-techandhighvalue-addedindustriesthatcanrecoverthelargeinitialinvestmentoverarelativelyshorttime.Nonetheless,eventhoughnotquiteasprominentinmanufacturingsofar,thishaspotentiallythestrongestimpactonindustriallabour,possiblyevenmakingmanypresent-dayworkersobsolete.Itwillbenecessarytoexaminewhatworkhumanscandobetterthanartificiallyintelligentrobots.

Thesedegreesofdigitalizationofindustrialmanufacturingmarkpathdependenciesthatvarysignificantlybetweenindustrialsectors,andbetweenregionswithinthesamesector–andnotjustindustrialmanufacturinginitsstrictestsensebutalsotherelatedwhite-collar,andservice-sectorworkers.Furthermoretheymaychangeovertheshort,medium,andlongtermasthetaskswithineachsectorevolve.However,therearecommoncharacteristicsamongstthemthatwillredefineworkthewayweknowit.Intercommunicationisthecommondenominatorinallofthesecases:Machine-to-machineandmachine-to-humancommunicationwillincreaseinsmartmanufacturing.Thequalityandquantityofdatawillincrease–withclearbenefitsforthe

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manufacturerandtheconsumer(i.e.monitoringtheproductionprogressofacustomproductsimilartothewaythatwetrackthedeliveryofourAmazonordertoday;andbetterabilitytopredictfutureproductionneeds),butthisalsomeansthatworkersandworkers’productivitycanbecloselyandpreciselymonitored.Tradeunionsmustrefusesuchpersonaldatamonitoringbyemployersbecauseitcanonlyleadtoacannibalisticcompetitionamongworkers,underminingsolidarity.Howwillworkerscompetewhentheirworkismeasuredagainstthatofamachine?Howwillproductivitybemeasuredwhenanindividual’sworkisperformedinthecontextofacomplextechnicalsystemthatmustonlybekeptrunning,andthereisnolongeraclearrelationshipbetweenhoursworkedandproduction?Whatbecomesofourexpectationsofminimalprivacy,evenatwork?

Wemustensurethatpersonaldataremainssafe.BigDataisatermforthecollectionandanalysisofdatasetsthatuntilnowhavebeentoolargeorcomplextobeuseful,butwithevermorepowerfulcomputers,cleverandcomplexalgorithmsandsophisticatedsoftware,havebecomeacommonmanagementtoolformanycorporations.WithanyBigDatasystemcomesalsothethreatofthedatabeingstolenandhacked.Whowillbeallowedtoaccessandusethedata?Whosedataisittobeginwith–theworker’sorthecompany’s?Itisunlikelythatworkerswillhavemuchsayonwhatinformationiscollectedabouttheirperformanceorwhatisdonewithit.

Again,IndustriAllEuropeanTradeUnionpointsouttheneedforopenstandardsforthedigitalintegrationofmanufacturinganddata.Ifthisisallowedtobecomeaproprietarystandard,toomuchwealthwillbeconcentratedatonepointinthevaluechain.Furthermore,digitalplatformsand“bigdata”mustnotbecomemonopolies.Threeprinciplesshouldapply:(1)“bigdata”mustbeconsidered“opendata”;(2)searchalgorithmsmustbeopenandfair;(3)cross-subsidisationstructuresandotherunfairtradepracticesmustbeprevented,orwheretheyalreadyexist,brokenup.

Thesethreedifferentformsofdigitalizedmanufacturing:assistancesystems;cyber-physicalsystems;andartificialintelligence,–allaspectsofIndustry4.0–willchangework,theywillaffectdevelopedanddevelopingnationstodifferingextentsandunderdifferentpremises,theywillsetdiverserequirementswithregardtothequalificationsofworkers,theywillimpactworkforcereductionstodifferentextents.Beyondmanufacturing,itisimportanttonotoverlooktheimpactofthesetechnologicalchangesonotherareasofwork.Theywillredefineoursocieties,challengeoursocialwelfaresystems,theycouldpotentiallyworsenalreadyexistingsocietalinequalities–andyet,thediscussionofthesecrucialsocietalaspectsremainslargelyneglected.Onceagain,itfallstothelabourmovementtomakethesocialcase.

Industry4.0andsustainability

Digitalizationofindustrialmanufacturingnotonlyhasbenefitsforcompaniesandgovernmentsfromaneconomicperspective,itmayalsohaveclearadvantageswithregardtoenvironmentalsustainability.Digitalizedproductionallowscompaniestomakeefficientuseofrawmaterials,andbyusingRFIDchipstosavetheinformationaboutproductassemblyregardingwhichmaterialsareusedinwhichcomponents.Therebyitalsomakesdisassemblyandrecycling

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easier,andfewerresourcesarewasted.Thisisthebasisoftheso-called“circulareconomy”,oneofthekeyadvantagesfromanenvironmentalperspectiveanditissurelyonethatappealstogovernmentsinparticular.

Theincreaseduseofsmaller-scale,local,andrenewableenergyproduction(forexample,rooftopphotovoltaic)accompaniedbydigitallymonitoredenergyconsumptionandartificiallyintelligentenergymanagementtechnologiesmayleadtothedecentralizationofenergyproductionandeventuallytheenergygriditself.Thisisanalready-existingtrend:forexample,manyEuropeanpaperindustriesalreadypracticecogeneration,anditwillbeorisalreadyrealityforothersectorsaswellwhereplantshavetheirownpowerplant.Exhaustheatcanbetransformedintousableenergyusingwasteheatrecoverysystems;companiescouldincreasinglyrelyonrenewableenergiessuchassolar,windandwater.Overproductionofenergyinindustrialplants,i.e.energythatexceedswhatisneededforproduction,canbefedintotheenergygridandbeofusetocommunities.Multiplesmaller-scaleenergygenerationsiteswillimplychangestotheenergygridwhichispresentlyengineeredtoaccommodatearelativelysmallnumberoflarge-scalegenerators.Rethinkingthistoafuturelandscapeinwhichgenerationsitesaremorewidelydistributedcouldsignificantlyreduceenergywastage.WithIndustry4.0feedingintotheemergingtrendtowardsenergygriddecentralization,thereareresearcherswhoseepossiblepositiveimpactsonenergyinfrastructureinmoreprecariousregionsoftheworldlikeAfrica.Theavailabilityofalternativeenergysourcescould–bythesepredictions–notonlyimprovepeople’slives,butalsomakeitmoreattractiveforcompaniestouseregionalhumanresources,bringingaboosttolocaleconomiesaswell.Howevermanyexistingjobsinenergy-generationcentrals,orinelectricalutilities,willbelostortransformed.

Inoppositiontothisoptimism,however,theincreasedpotentialforflexibilityandrapidresponsetoconsumerwishescanaccelerateproductcyclesandleadtoincreasinglyrapidobsolescenceofproducts.Thiswouldgenerateanincreaseddemandforresourcesandanincreasedgenerationofwaste.Also,thenewdigitaltechnologiesneedadditionalresourcesthemselves,e.g.rareearthmetalsforchipsandothermineralsfordigitalequipment.

WhiletherearepotentialenvironmentaladvantagesthatcomewithIndustry4.0,atthesametimethistransformationalsomeanspotentialsocialthreatstoworkers,theirfamiliesandtheircommunitieswhentheirjobsarenotsecuredduringthetransformation.Historically,notechnologicallyinducedeconomictransformationhaseverbeenstopped,buttradeunionsmustinsistthatworkers'rightsareenhancedbytechnologicalchange,notdiminished.Weneedtoinsistonfairworkarrangementsestablishedbyagreementsintheworkplace,bycampaigningforlawswhichrespecttheroleofworkersandunions.Workersorganisationmustremaininvolvedinthediscussionwhenthefatesofmillionsofworkersworldwideareaffectedbydecisionsmadebycompanies,andbygovernmentswhosupplysubsidiesandinvestinpilotprojects.Historyhasshownthatindustrialrevolutionsofthisextentcanonlybemasteredifworkers’expertiseandknowledgearetakenintoaccount–iftheyareneglectedintheprocessrichsourcesofknowledgeandfutureinnovationsarewasted.Thedisparitiesbetweendevelopedanddevelopingnationsshouldparticularlyfocusgovernments’attentiononhowthis

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transformationmaybemanagedinsuchawayastoprioritizethepotentialpositivesocietalimpactsandkeepsocietalcostsataminimum.

1. Industry4.0intheContextofGlobalDevelopmentThediscussionaboutIndustry4.0issofarmainlyledbyonlyafewcountriesandregions.Europehasperhapshadthemostinfluence,bothinacademiaaswellasinpolitics;althoughothercountriesareworkingonsimilarstrategies,e.g.“MadeinChina2025”.The“Europe2020”strategywaslaunchedin2006bytheEuropeanUnionandisaimedat“smart,sustainableandinclusivegrowth”.Andwhilethisstrategyisnotjustaimedateconomicgrowth,butdoesactuallytakeintoconsiderationalargenumberofsocialfactorsandanecessaryadaptationofEUandnationalpoliciesoneducationandsocialwelfare,Europeandevelopednationsleadthisdiscussionwithoutpayingmuchattentiontotheeffectsthatthistransformationmayhaveonthedevelopingworld.Industry4.0mustnotbeallowedtobecomejustanotherwayfordevelopedcountriestopunishless-developedones.

ItislikelythatineachsectortheimplementationofIndustry4.0willstartinthoseindustrieswherethecostofdoingsowillbeexpectedtomostquicklybeoffsetbythepotentialproductivity–andhenceprofit–gains.Theearlyadoptersofthesetechnologieswillputpressureontheirimmediatesuppliersandcustomers,andinturntheirrespectivesuppliersandcustomersandsoon,bothupwardsanddownwardsthroughthefullvaluechain,tofollowsuit.Competitorstoo,andtheirvaluechains,willfeelthepressuretoadoptthetechnologiesofIndustry4.0.Thereforethegrowthinadoptionwillnotbeagradual,orlinear,process.Insteaditsspreadwilllikelybeexponentialonceitisfullyunderway,andgiventoday’sglobalizedvaluechainswillnotremain-infact,isnolonger–aEuropean,ordevelopedcountry,phenomenonforverylong.Thepresentshapeanddirectionofglobalsupplychainsandlabourforcemobilitywillre-align.

Industry4.0willchangemorethanjustproductionmethods.Itwillshiftthepointofgreatestvalue-addedalongthevaluechain.Thedesign,engineeringandmaintenancestagesofaproductmustbeconsidered,notmerelytheindustrialproductionofit.Itmayforceare-thinkingofintellectualpropertyrights–patentsandcopyrights-andtherightstoso-called“bigdata”.Existinglawsinthisareahaveallowedanextremeconcentrationofwealthbyahandfulofcompanies.

1.1LookingpasttheEuropeanEconomy–threatsfordevelopingnations.

Thewaythatdevelopednationsactinthistransformation,thewaygovernmentsdecidetosubsidizethissocio-economicchangeorgeneratesupportthroughothermeans(i.e.taxcuts),hasastrongandverydirectimpactondevelopingnations.Forthelatter,lowwagesareoneofthemaincompetitiveadvantagesoverdevelopedcountriesinaglobalizedeconomy.Thishasledtothephenomenonofde-industrializationinsomedevelopedcountries,althoughabetter

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termwouldbeindustrialdisplacement.AndwhileprecariousworkisparticularlyprevalentinThirdWorldcountries,manyworkers,theirfamiliesandcommunitiesdependonthe(small)incomestheycanmakefromthisindustriallabour,evenifsometimesitmakesforabarelylivablewageandfailstocoverthebasicneeds.

Industry4.0,however,makesproductionofspecializedproductsinsmallnumberspossibleatrelativelylowprices–eveninthedevelopedworld.Resourcesandmaterialsarebeingusedmoreefficientlyandcanbereusedandrecycledbetter,thedecentralizationofenergygenerationandthedistributiongridallowscompaniestoself-supplytheirenergyandevenhaveanextrasourceofincomewhentheyareabletosellenergythatissurplustotheirneedsbackintotheenergygrid,supplyingcommunitieswithenergy.Andofcourse,rationalizationsandworkforcedownsizingmakeproductioncheaper,too.Thisisastrongbenefitforcompaniesandsomeresearchersseeitasapowerfuleconomicboost,especiallyforEurope:Afterall,the“MadeinEurope”sealisassociatedhighqualityproductswhichmeansthattheywillusuallyappealwellonthemarket.

Sowhenthemanufacturingofproductsindevelopedcountriestrendscheaper,developingnationsbegintolosetheircompetitiveadvantageonwagesandareputinadirectcompetitionwiththem–andworkerswilllikelypaythepriceforthat.ThetechnologiessurroundingIndustry4.0–inthiscasemostlyassistancesystemsandcyberphysicalsystems–arestillrelativelypriceyand,giventhelowwagesindevelopingnations,willprobablynotbeappliedthereanytimesoon.However,thismeansthatworkersinthesecountriesareputunderdirectpressurewhencompaniesthreatentomoveproductionbackintodevelopednationsthatofferdigitalizedmanufacturing.Adidasisanexcellentexampleforthis:Inthesummerof2016theyannouncedthattheywouldbebuildingahighlydigitalizedfactoryforhigh-endsneakersinGermanyandtherebymovingsomeoftheproductionawayfromtheircurrentmainproductionsitesinEasternAsia.ThepressureonwagesinThirdWorldcountrieswillincrease,allwhileworkersalreadyfaceprecariousworkcircumstancesandbarelylivablewages.Notonlythat,theoverallpressureonworkerscouldriseinareassuchasworkinghours,occupationalhealthandsafety,etc.

WhileIndustry4.0technologiessofararestillrelativelypricey,oncethepricesofadvancedroboticsoutweighthecostofworkers’labour,workforcedownsizingeveninthedevelopingworldisalargerisk.Iffollowingarationalchoiceapproach,onewouldassumethatwithinThirdWorldcountries,thosewiththehighestwageswouldexperienceworkforcedownsizingandautomationthroughadvancedroboticsfirst.However,theprominentexampleofChineseiPhonemanufacturerFoxconnprovesotherwise.Chinahasneitherthehighest,northelowestwagesinAsia.HoweverFoxconnhasalreadymadesignificantinvestmentsintheirso-calledFoxbotwhichhassincebeenabletoreplacearound30percentoftheirworkforce–intotal,some300,000workers.Digitalizationimpactsondevelopingcountriesmightatfirstseemindirect.Howeverthisshowsthatdevelopedcountriesmaycornerthemintoacompetitiontheysimplycannotmatchsustainably.ThereforetheyarenotsafefromthenegativedirectconsequencesofIndustry4.0onworkersafterall–theymightjustbedelayed.Infact,developingcountrieswillbehitmuchharder,notonlybecauseofthealreadyexistingproblems

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oflowwages,littletonohealthsupport,precariousworksituations,butalsobecauseofweaksocialwelfaresystems,particularlyincountrieswhereinformalandirregularworkiscommon,whichputworkersandtheirfamiliesathigherriskoffree-fallingiftheyareinfactaffectedbyrationalizationsthroughautomation.

Finally,theintentandimpactoftraderulesandagreementsmustbeunderstood.Itisanemergingtrendtogivethedigitaleconomyspecialstatuswithintradeagreements.Thiswillmakeitmoredifficultforfuturegovernmentstocontrolmonopolypowerandundueconcentrationofwealth.Otherpolicytendenciesincludeincreasedpatentandcopyrightprotection(intellectualproperty)andbarrierstothecontrolofdataorprivacywherethedataisstoredinanothercountry.ThesecouldbecomeseriousobstaclestomeetingtheSustainableDevelopmentGoals(see1.2,below).Offshoringofproductiondigitallycontrolledfromaremotelocation,oralternativelylocalproductionusing3Dprintingtechnologyusingsoftwareandtemplatesthatareprotectedintellectualproperty,areothernewareasthatarenotwellunderstoodyet.

Notethattheterms“developed”and“developing”arenotabsolute.Thereisarangeoflevelsofeconomicdevelopment,withrelianceontheexploitationofrawmaterialsandindustrialproductionthat(inmanyregions)hasnotyetfullyincorporatedthebenefitsandlessonsofpreviousindustrialrevolutions.Whatisclear,isthattheremustbeapathwaytoabetterfuture,forall.ThebenefitsofIndustry4.0mustbesharedbothwithin,andbetween,nations.

Actionsofgovernmentsandcompaniesinthedevelopedworld,andinparticularinEurope,directlyimpactthedevelopingworldandshouldbetakenintoaccountduringthedecisionmakingprocessonIndustry4.0inthedevelopednations.

1.2SustainableDevelopmentGoals–ImplicationsforIndustry4.0.

In2015,theUnitedNationsannouncedtheirSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs)(figure3)incontinuationoftheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals(MDG)establishedin2000.Clearly,developednationsoughttofollowacertaincommitmenttosustainabilityalsowithregardtoIndustry4.0.

Nearlyallofthesegoalshaveclearimplicationstomakingsurethatthecomingindustrialtransformationisdonesustainably.SDGGoals#1,#2,and#3,togetherwith#8,alsoimplygeneratingsustainableemploymentwithalivablewage,banningprecariousworkandimprovingoccupationalhealthandsafety.Buildingupindustry,innovationandinfrastructure(#9)isanissuenotjustfordevelopednations,butalsoforThirdWorldcountriesandhashighrelevanceinthecontextofthedigitalizationofmanufacturing.Industry4.0comeswithavarietyofnewchallengesandrequirementsforthequalificationsofworkers.Thebettertheeducationalsystems,thebettertheywillbeabletoadapttothenewchangesinindustryand–inturn–makeforlesssystemicinequalities(#4,#5and#10).

ThemostimportantSDGisprobably#17,becauseitactuallystatesthenecessityforglobalcooperationandpartnershipinordertoachievethesegoals.TomakeIndustry4.0anindustrial

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transformationthatmakesuseofthebenefitsandkeepsthreatstoaminimum,anequalamountofpartnershipisneededinthiscontextaswell.

Oneofthepotentialpositivesofthedigitaltransformationisthepossibilitytoobtain,orrequire,detailedinformationconcerningthefullvaluechainofaproduct–whereitismanufactured,how,andunderwhatconditions.Thiskindofdigitalsignaturewouldenablethepromiseofcorporatesocialresponsibilitytobecomeareality.

Figure3:SummaryoftheUN’sSustainableDevelopmentGoalsuntil2030,adoptedinDecember2015(source:www.un.org)

WhatremainsclearisthatIndustry4.0isaglobalphenomenon,inwhichcountriescannotandshouldnotjustconsidertheirnationaleconomies,butalsotacklethisproblemglobally.Thereareindeedmanyopportunitiesthatcomewiththistransformation,butworkerscannotbetheonestopayforthistransformationbybeingpressuredintoacceptinglowerwages,continuingprecariousworkingconditions,competingagainstmachinesinproductivityandbypossiblylosingtheirjobs.Ontheotherhand,suchopportunitiesasIndustry4.0maycreatewillonlybeavailabletoworkersiftheyareabletoobtaintraining,education–andqualifications–inthoseareasandskillsthatwillbeindemand.Tradeunionsaremoreimportantthaneverinthecontextofthistransformation.

2. HumanResourcesinTimesofIndustrial

TransformationTheprognosesforfutureskillrequirementsinmanufacturingvarygreatly–somesaytheywillriseandthemostneededskillwillbeprogrammingandIT,otherssaythatworkerswillmostlybeneededincontrollingjobsand,supposedly,thenecessaryqualificationsforthesejobswillinfactdecrease.Insomeindustrieswenoticethetrendofmergingofsub-segmentsofindustrial

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production(sales,design,creation,productionandmaintenance)intoa“full-service”,highly-andmulti-skilledworkforce.Inothers,wehaveseenade-skillingtakeplaceasrobotstakeovermostroles,leavingmenialbutnon-repetitive(andthereforedifficulttoautomate)workforhumans(figure4).Thesevariedpredictionsareduetothreemainreasons.Firstly,industrialsectorsvarylargelywithregardtotheseskillrequirementsandthereforeneedtobeanalyzedseparately.Secondly,regionalvariationshavealargeimpactonresultsoftheseprognoses(EuropemayhavedifferentresultsfromtheUS,EasternAsiawillvaryfromSouthAmerica,etc.).Thirdly,qualificationrequirementsvarywiththedegreeofdigitalization.Theuseofnewtechnologiesinmanufacturingmeansthatworkersfacevariedchallengesandnewrequirements.Figure4:

2.1Smartmanufacturing–highlyskilledworkerscombiningpracticalandIT

knowledge

“Smartmanufacturing”takeshighlyskilledworkerstoacompletelynewlevel.Clearly,anyworkeroperatinginasmartfactoryisrequiredtohaveanunderstandingofpracticalaswellasengineeringandprogrammingskills.Overall,qualificationsrequiredofworkersinanindustrialplantarelikelytorise.Maintenanceworkontheotherhand,whilerequiringhighskilllevels,willmostlybeoutsourcedorkept“captive”bymachinerymanufacturersastheymovetoamodelofsellingtheservicesoftheirmachineryratherthantheequipmentitself(raising

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importantquestionse.g.aboutthecontinuingfailuretotransfertechnologytothedevelopingworld).Despitethisitmeans,onbalance,thatcountriesthatalreadyhaveahighlyskilledworkforceonaveragewillbeabletoadapttothesechangeseasierthanthosewithmoremediumandlowskilledlabourforce.However,thisdoesnotprotectthemagainstrationalizationswhenthereislessneedforhumanlabourinmanufacturing.Thisisdiscussedrathercontroversially,byBenShneiderman,aprofessorforcomputersciencesatUniversityofMarylandwhowrotethat:

“RobotsandAImakecompellingstoriesforjournalists,buttheyareafalsevisionofthemajoreconomicchanges.Journalistslosttheirjobsbecauseofchangestoadvertising,professorsarethreatenedbyMassiveOpenOnlineCourses(MOOCs),andstoresalespeoplearelosingjobstoInternetsalespeople.Improveduserinterfaces,electronicdelivery(videos,music,etc.),andmoreself-reliantcustomersreducejobneeds.Atthesametimesomeoneisbuildingnewwebsites,managingcorporatesocialmediaplans,creatingnewproducts,etc.Improveduserinterfaces,novelservices,andfreshideaswillcreatemorejobs.”

InastudyconductedbytheWolteretal,fortheGermanInstituteoftheFederalAgencyofEmployment(2016)itispredictedthatasdemandincreasesfordigitaltechnologies,sotoowilltheneedforinvestmentineducationandtraining.Thestudypredictsthat1,540,000jobswillbelostby2025,while1,510,000jobswillbecreated.GivenGermany’sprevioussuccessinadaptingtoe.g.theclosingofcoalmines,theseprognosesclaimthatthetotalofsome30,000workersthatwouldbeoutofjobscouldbeabsorbedintothesystemfairlyeasily.Andwhiletheremightevenbesometruthtobothofthesestatements–BenShneiderman’sandthenumbersintheprognosisaboutGermany–onethingremainsclear:Thejobslostandthejobscreatedhaveverydifferentprofilesandrequirementsthatrequireintenseadditionaleducationandtrainingandcannotbematchedadhoc.Neitheristhereaguaranteethatanynewjobscreatedwillbeaccessibletodisplacedpresent-dayworkersforotherreasons–forexample,theymaybeinentirelydifferentregions.

Thetransitiontosmartmanufacturinghasavarietyofimpactsonhowworkcanandwillbedoneinthefutureandonitsinclusiveness,orratherexclusiveness,forsomeworkers.Manualworkisdecreasing,whilecomputerizedworkisinfactincreasing.Computerliteracyandbeingabletounderstandandworkincommonprogramminglanguageswillbeavaluableskillinthefuture.Bothoftheseskillsrequireextensiveeducation,trainingandprofessionaldevelopmentandmeansthatsomepartsofsocietymightbeleftbehind.Languages,betheynaturalorprogramminglanguagesarebestandeasiestlearnedatayoungage,meaningthatoldergenerationsofworkersmighthaveahardertimeachievingthenecessaryqualifications.MigrantworkerswhosefirstlanguageisnotEnglishmayhaveanunequalstartintraining(althoughsomestudieshaveshownthattheyarenotgreatlydisadvantagedbecauseoftheextremelylogicalnatureofprogramminglanguages).

Educationandtrainingrequirestimeandeffortoutsideoftheregularworkschedule,whichhasbeenestimatedbytheEuropeanUniontomeanatleast40hoursperyearinsomeoccupations–whilethepresent-dayaverageisaround9hoursperyear.Thislikelymeansworkerswithchildren,andinparticularwomen,willhavelargerissuesinmatchingtheirworkrequirements

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andfamilyduties.Workerswithdisabilities,especiallythosewhoarementallyimpaired,havethusfarbeenabletobeincludedinsomeoftheeasiertasksinmanufacturingplants–butwiththerisingcomplexityoftasksandthenecessityforcomputerandprogrammingskills,thesejobsarealsobecomingmoreexclusive.

Theprofileofthenewknowledgeworker,whichhasbeendescribedasthe“bluecollarinnovator”,orthe“innovationworker”issomeonewhohasgonethroughyearsofeducationandtraining,whois–ifnotproficientin–atleastabletounderstandmajorprogrammingandcodinglanguages.Mostwillagreethatinordertogettothiskindoflabourforce,advancededucationandtrainingneedstobeofferedtoworkers.Thisneedstobedoneinawaythatrespectsworker’schoices,isinclusiveandthatdoesn’taggravatealreadyexistingsocialinequalities.

Incontrasttosmartmanufacturing,theskillsrequiredforindustriesusingassistancesystemsareverydifferent.Computerprogramswillassistduringassemblyofproductsandwillgiverelativelyclearinstructionstotheworkerforthetaskssheorheisrequiredtodo.Theprofileofaworkerinthisscenarioishenceveryunliketheknowledgeworker.Manualskillsareinfactmoreimportantinthiscaseandprogrammingskillsarenotnecessaryforthiswork.Especiallyinemergingeconomieswithamediumskilledworkforcethistransformationcouldactuallybeanattractiveopportunityandappealtocompaniesbecauseofthealreadymediumskilledworkforcepresent,andcouldbeaboosttotheirnationaleconomies.

2.2Skillsgapsandskillsmisfit

Itisnotthecasethetoday’sworkerslackskills,buttheskillstheypossessmaynotbetheskillsindemandinnewworkplaces.Qualificationsare–andthisiscommonlyagreed–oneofthemostprominentchallengeswhenitcomestoIndustry4.0.Thechangesintherequiredskillsarenotjustachallengeforworkers,buttheyalsohavestrongimpactsonsocieties,especiallyindevelopedcountrieswhereskillsgapsandskillsmisfitarealreadycommonproblemsinthelabourmarket(seefigure5).

Tofurthercomplicatetheproblem,theagingworkforce–ademographicphenomenonfeltmoststronglyinJapan,Europeancountries,CanadaandAustralia–meansthataneducationandtrainingstrategyinthoseregionsmusttakeintoaccountthestrengthsandweaknessesofolderworkerstobesuccessful.Geography,migration,andurbanizationmustalsobetakenintoaccountwhenplanningtomakeeducationandtrainingaccessibletothosewhoneedit.Inthecontextofaccessibilitytoeducationandtraining,itmustbepointedoutthattradeunionshavehistoricallybeenamongthemosteffectivedeliveryagenciesforoccupationaltraining.Arewereadytotakeonthisroleintheadvanced-technologyfields?Italiantradeunions,forexample,haveproposedtheestablishmentof“CompetenceCenters”orcentersofexcellencetofacilitatetheacquisitionanddeliveryofskills;notnecessarilywithintheexistinguniversityframework.

Generallyspeaking,inmostdevelopedeconomies,industrialdesignandthemanufacturingofhighqualityproductsrequirealargeamountofhighlyqualifiedworkersandengineers.Atthesametimethereisacontinuingneedforprivateandpersonalservices,suchascleaning,

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laundry,maintenanceetc.thatrequirelowerskills.Ontheotherhand,mediumskillsarerequiredtoamuchlesserextentbecausealargeshareofmediumskillmanufacturinghasrelocatedtoothercountries.

Figure5:Modelofrequiredvs.existingskillsdistribution;developedcountryindustriallabourmarkets.Source:Hilpert,Y,2017.

TheexistingqualificationsinWesternsocietiesdiffergreatlyindistributionfromthoseneeded:Wellestablishededucationalsystemsandapprenticeshipprogramsmeanthatlargesharesofsocietyhaveatleastmediumskillsandarelativelysmallshareofpeoplehaslowskills.Andwhilethismightbeagoodsignforeducationalsystems,italsopointstoaproblemofsupplyanddemand:Thepotentialoverproductionofamediumskilledworkforcemeansthattherecouldbealargeshareofthisgroupstrugglingtofindajobmatchingtheirqualifications–theyareoverqualifiedforthelowerqualificationjobsthatarealsopaidlessandhencenotaccordingtotheirpersonalqualifications;whiletheyarenotskilledenoughtofilltheskillsshortageinthehighestqualificationjobs.WithindustrialworkanddesignlosingitsappealtoyoungergenerationsinWesternsocieties,theproblemofaskillsgaphasariseninthehigherskilledjobs.

Inresponse,bothcompaniesandgovernmentsinEuropehaveengagedinstrategicskillsplanningandtakenmeasurestomakeindustrialjobsmoreappealing,i.e.bygivingoutspecificscholarshipsforSTEMsubjects(Science,Technology,EngineeringandMathematics)andguaranteedjoboffersaftersuccessfulapprenticeshipprograms.(Adownsideofthisstrategyisthatitcanbearguedthatingeneralcompaniesarenotdoingtheirshareandareinsteadrelyingonthepublicsectortosubsidizetheireducationandtrainingneeds.)Thereisclearlya

Required Skills Distribution Existing Skills Distribution

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technologyfocusinavarietyofthepolicymakinginitiatives,especiallyineducationpolicy–butintimeswheretherewilllikelybelessdemandforhumanworkinthefuture,newsolutionsforsocialissuesshouldbeafocusaswell.Thesocialsciencesandliberalarts,intheirroleaspossiblesocialinnovators,shouldgetjustasmustpoliticalattentionandinvestmentasSTEMsubjects.

Thisdemonstrationshowsseveralproblems:Theskillsmisfitnotonlymeansthatacertainshareofworkerswillbeforcedtoworkatjobsthatactuallydonotmatchtheirownqualificationsandthattheyareoverqualifiedandunderpaidfor.Italsomeansthatalargeshareofexistinghumanresourcesinsocietycouldremainunutilized,eventhoughtheaveragequalificationisfairlyhigh.HowisthisrelevantinthecontextofIndustry4.0?ExistingskillsandqualificationsinsocietyaswellasexistinglabourmarketissuessuchasskillsshortagesandmisfitareimportantindicatorsforhowIndustry4.0isgoingtoaffectsociety.Demandforworkerswithloweducationalqualificationswillprobablyremainstagnantindevelopedcountries:lowqualificationmanufacturingischeaperindevelopingcountriesandhasoftenalreadyrelocated;lowqualificationservicesareoftenpersonalservicessuchascleaning,caregiving,maintenanceandgastronomythatcannotbeaseasilyoutsourcedorrelocated.Mediumskillmanufacturingjobs,however,arepronetobeingdigitalized,therebybeingathigherriskforworkforcedownsizingandrationalization.Mediumskilledservices(webdesign,calculations,etc.)caneasilybeoutsourcedandprovidedfromanywherearoundtheworldforafractionofthepriceviavariousplatformsandwillthereforealsoshrinklocaljobopportunitiesinthedevelopedworldforthatsector.Thismeansthattherewillbeanevensmallershareofmediumskilljobsfortherelativelylargeshareofworkerswiththeseskills.Somehighskilledmanufacturingcanbedonethroughsmartmanufacturinginthefuturewhichwillmeanjobcuts,whilesomemaybeenhancedbyassistancesystemsandthelattercouldactuallygeneratejobs.Whetherexistingworkerswithmediumqualificationswillbeabletoaccessthosejobswilldependontheavailabilityandutilizationofeducationandtrainingprogrammes.

Evenhighlyskilledworkerssuchastechniciansandengineersfaceasituationwheretheireducationandskillsmaybecomeobsoleteandoutofdemand,ifnotcontinuouslyupdated.

Someremarksonskillsandtheregionaldivide(seebubbleanalysis,figure6):asmentionedbefore,productcomplexityandskilllevelareimportantindicatorsfortheeconomicdevelopmentsofIndustry4.0.Eachsectorhasdifferentcharacteristicsthatmakeitmoreorlesspronetochanges,especiallywithregardtojoblossesorgainsinthiscontext.Therehasbeenaresultingshiftinthetypeofjobsaswell,withrelativehigherdemandforengineers,technicians,salespeopleandserviceproviders;andrelativelylowerdemandforpredominantlymanualworkers.Tradeunionswhoarenotopentothesenewemployees’groupswillbecomeobsolete.

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Figure6:QualitativemodelofIndustriALL’sindustrialsectorsonaplotofproductcomplexityandrequiredskilllevel.Thebackgroundshadingcorrespondstotheregionaldivide(lightgrey=developingworld,darkgrey=developedworld;sizeofbubbleindicatesrelativenumberofworkersaffected).AdaptedfromHilpert,Y:2017.

3. SectoralVariationsforIndustry4.0TheconsequencesofIndustry4.0dependonavarietyofdifferentindicators,someofwhichhavealreadybeendiscussedinthispaper:Industry4.0willaffectvariousindustrialsectorsandglobalregionsdifferentlyandwilllikelyreinforcealreadyexistinginequalitiesbothwithinandbetweenregions.

Additionally,productcomplexityandpricing,therequiredskilllevelandthepre-existinglevelofautomationareimportantindicators,becausetheyallowforpredictionswithregardtogovernments’andcompanies’behaviorinthistransition:Wheretheinitialcapitalinvestmentistoohightoberewardedbyrevenuessoonenough,companieswilllikelynotinvestinthenew

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technology.Similarly,iftheyarelackingthequalifiedpersonneltoworkwiththesetechnologies,theirinvestmentmayfailaswell.

IndustriALL’sobjectivesaretoensurethatIndustry4.0isusedtodevelopcooperative,integrative,democraticandegalitarianworkplacesandsocieties–withnewandbetterindustrialjobs.Thiswillrequirestrongactiononthepartofthetradeunionmovement.

WhenlookingatIndustriALL’sindustrialsectorswecangroupthemintoroughlythreegroups:low-,medium-andhigh-impact;accordingtohowstronglytheywillbeaffectedbyIndustry4.0intheimmediatetonearfuture.

3.1LowimmediateimpactofIndustry4.0–heavyindustries,intensive

manuallabour:ParticularImpactsinBaseMetals,Mining,andTextile

GarmentsandLeather

BaseMetalsIndustrialsectorslikebasemetalsarelikelynotgoingtoexperiencealargetransformationfromIndustry4.0,intheshortterm.Manyjobsinthissectorrequireacombinationofrelativelyhighskillsandrelativehighlabourintensityandaresofarnotparticularlyeasilyautomatedevenwithadvancedrobotics,whichwouldmaketheinitialinvestmentforcompanieshighanduneconomical.

Thatdoesnotmeantherewillbenotransformation,however.Thesteelindustryisstillregardedbymanyasamassivejob-creator,butthatischanging.Inthemediumtolongterm,certainpartsoftheproductionprocessmaybeoutsourcedordigitalizedandevenmoreoftheprocesswillbecontrolledfromcentralcontrolroomsthanontheplantfloor.Processcontrolcomputerswillmakemoreofthedecisionsthantheyalreadydo,forexampleonthepreciseblendsofrawmaterials,whilemachinerywillincreasinglybeself-diagnosingwithrespecttomaintenanceneeds.Maintenancemightbecomedigitallymanaged,andultimatelyoutsourcedtoserviceprovidersspecializinginspecificplatforms.Leasing,ratherthanbuying,productionequipmentwillhavethesameeffect:theequipmentsupplierwillretainresponsibilitiesformaintenanceandbeinformedontheneedforitbydigitalICTbuiltintothemachinery.Furthertechnologicalachievementsinself-drivingcarsmaybeanattractivefeatureforlogisticsinthesesectors–ifnotthroughouttransportanddelivery,thenatleastinmaterialhandlingwithintheplantitself.Inthelongerterm,ofcourse,eventhejobsthatarenotpresentlyeconomicaltoautomatewillbetransformed.

TheGermanresearchinstituteFraunhoferIAISdistinguishesbetweendigitalintegrationwithinthemill,intermsofoptimizingproductionontheonehand;anddigitalintegrationinvolvingentitiesexternaltothemill,fromsupplierstocustomers,ontheotherhand.Thefirsttendstoenhanceefficiency,productivity,andqualitywhilethesecondwillinvolveflexibility,customization,inventoryandlogistics.

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Thespeedofthattransformationwillvaryconsiderably,butisalreadyunderwayinsomeareas.AtVoestalpineAG'snewrollingmillinDonawitz,Austria,just14workersareneededtoproducethesameamountofproductasabout1,000wouldhaveinthe1960s.Thisisduetoadvancedautomationandcentralizedprocesscontrol.Notcountingmaintenanceandlogisticsjobs(ofwhichabout300stillexistattheplant),theremainingfewproductionjobsarewhite-collarcontrol-roomtechnicians.Globally,producingonetonofsteelnowaverages250worker-hourscomparedto700worker-hours,20yearsago–andthisdeclinenotonlyhasnotstoppedbutmayaccelerate.

Blastfurnaces,bythenatureofthework,maybelessamenableintheshorttermtothiskindofradicalautomationthanarollingmill,butchangeiscomingthereaswell.Voestalpineisalreadylookingatmodernizingtheseandeliminatingmanyexistingjobs.

MiningSectorTheminingsectorisrelativelydiversewithregardtotheexistingtechnologicalprogressusedonsite.Someminesstillrequirealargeamountofmanuallabourwhileothersareinfactalreadyheavilyautomated,whichwouldimplythattheminingsectorincludesgoodcandidatesforstrongerindustrialdigitalization.Althoughthedigitaltransformation,orspreadofthesetechnologies,isdependentontheregionalsituation,the“digitalmine”isnotfaroffthehorizon.

Wherewagesarecheapandcurrentlyusedtechnologiesarelow,companieswilllikelynotinvestintodigitalizingminesintheneartermbecausetherevenuereturnfromthisinvestmentwouldremainfairlylow.However,thereareexamplesalreadyofmineswhererobotsorremotely-guidedmachinerydoagreatdealoftheworkthatwouldformerlyhavebeendonebyhumanbeingsworkingattherock-face;drillingisanothersuchexample.

Asthecostofthesetechnologiesdecline,increasingutilisationofthesetechnologiesshouldbeexpectedandtheaccessibilityofadvancedtechnologiesincludingsensors,analysersandconnectivityofproductionmachinery–willputmining’sinternetofthings(IoT)andcloud-basedservicesatthecentreoftheminingindustry’sdigitalspace(seefigure7).

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Figure7:“Theforcespoweringtheriseofthe“digitalmine”areascompellingasthosedrivingchangeinotherindustries”-MarceloSávio,IBMglobalindustrysolutionsarchitect.

Thedrivingforcesbehindtheriseofthe“digitalmine”:whatMarceloSáviocalls,the“changedeconomics”ofmining;areproductivity,technicalandsocialchallenges,risinginputcosts,fallen(falling)commoditypricesandsafetyimperatives.

Thenumbersdrivingdigitalizationarestaggering.AccordingtotheInternationalDataCorporation(IDC)EnergyInsights’DigitalTransformationinMiningWebinar:DrivingProductivityImprovements:

• 28%ofminingcompaniesgloballyexpecttheirITbudgetstoincreasedespitecurrentindustrychallenges.

• Technologyisplayinganincreasinglycriticalroleforinvestmentswith70%ofminersarelookingatmineautomationinvestments,69%plantolookatcentralizedcommandandcontrolandmorethanaquarterofminersarelookingattheroleroboticscanplay.Thosecompaniesthatcancreatecompetitivedifferentiationwillbeinthebestpositiontoperformnowandwhencommoditypricesimprove.

• Miningcompanieswillincreasinglycreatevisibility,responsivenessandcontrolthroughdatainsights.Thereisprojectedtobea30%increaseintheminingcompaniesutilizingadvancedanalyticswithinoperationsinthenextfewyears,particularlyinenergy,oreandsupplychainmanagement.

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Theimpactonjobsisobviousasistheneedforadifferentskillsset.JustTransitionmeasures–programmestokeepaffectedworkerswhole–asapolicyresponsewillneedtobecomplimentedbynationalgovernments’responsestowardsconsiderationofeconomicdiversificationprojects.Diversificationoflocaleconomieswouldbestrengthenedbyanintegrateddevelopmenteconomicmodel-aSustainableIndustrialPolicy-thatwillrequireminingcompanies’infrastructuredevelopmentplanstobeintegratedwithinlocaleconomicdevelopmentplans.Thesehavesofarbeenutilizedwheretheinvestmentcanbejustifiedforexceptionalcircumstances,suchastheminingofveryhigh-gradeuraniumorethathumanworkerscouldnotdosafelyduetotheradiationhazard.Thepointbeingmadeisthatthetechnologiestoreplacemanyminingjobswithrobots,exist.Asthecostofthesetechnologiesdeclinesincreasingutilisationofthesetechnologiesshouldbeexpected.

TextilesGarmentsandLeatherSectorThetextiles,garmentsandleathersectorisalsorelativelydiversewithregardtotheproductsandthetechnologiesused.Fibresandtextilesusedinthemanufacturingofspecialtymaterialslikecarbonfibrereinforcedfabricsandplastics,increasinglyusedforcarsandairplanesandotheruses,alreadyusequitemodernmachinery.Ontheotherhand,garmentsandleatherstillprofitfromlowwagesandaremanufacturedunderextremelyprecarious,unhealthyandunsafeworkingconditions,typicallyinthedevelopingworld.ThissectorwilllikelybepartiallyaffectedbyIndustry4.0:specialtextilesthatarealreadyusinghightechnologymachinerycouldbefurtherdigitalized.

Untilrecently,theautomationofgarmentmanufacturehasbeenconsideredaverydifficulttaskbecauseoftheflexibleandstretchycharacteristicsoffabrics,theneedforanabilitytocustomizeproducts,andothervariables.However,therehavebeenadvancesinthefieldandrobotsarenowavailablethatcanperformtheworkofhumansewingmachineoperators.Asthistechnologyisproven,hundredsofthousands–orperhapsevenmillions–ofsewingmachineoperatorjobscouldbeatrisk.Asthisisakeyindustrialsectorinsomedevelopingcountries,thesocialanddevelopmentriskscannotbeoverstated.Indeed,thepotentialforautomationtobecost-effectiveeveninlow-wageregionsraisesimportantquestions.WillinitiativeslikeACT(Action,Collaboration,Transformation:aninitiativeofinternationalbrandsandretailers,manufacturers,andtradeunionstoaddresstheissueoflivingwagesinthetextileandgarmentsupplychain)putpressureonmanufacturerstospeeduptheintroductionofnewtechnologies?

Tanningandleathersimilarlyhasbeenresistanttotechnologicalchangestosomeextent,butthisisnolongernecessarilythecase.Theeffectscanbemassive;inthetanningandleatherindustryinIndia,employmenthasalreadyshrunkfromnearly200,000toabout30,000(albeitduetoacombinationoffactors,notsolelytechnologicalchange).

Indeed,increasinglystringentquality-controltoleranceswilldemandthatsuppliersoftextiles,garmentsandleatheradopthightechnology.Partsofthelower-skilledgarmentssectorcouldbeaffectedbyrelocationtoEuropeancountries–muchlikeintheexampleofAdidas–thatallowcompaniestoproduceusinglargelydigitalizedmethodsbutselltheirproductsatahigherpricebecauseofahigherqualityandthe“MadeinEurope”sealthatappealswellinthemarket.

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3.2MediumimpactofIndustry4.0–digitalizationinalreadyheavily

automatedsectors:ParticularImpactsinAerospace,Automotive,Chemicals,

Materials,andPharmaceuticals,PulpandPaper,Rubber,Shipbuildingand

Shipbreaking

AerospaceSectorWithIndustry4.0beingabletoprovidecustomizedsolutionstoconsumerneeds,evensectorslikeaerospacecanexperiencesignificantimpactsfromtheapplicationofadvanceddigitalizationinmanufacturing.Althoughautomationinaerospaceisalreadyfairlyhigh,itwillbedrivenevenhigherthroughsmartroboticsduringassembly.Partofthiswillbedrivenbytheneedforincreasinglytightqualitycontroltolerancestoe.g.makesurepartshavetheminimumweightcompatiblewithstrengthandsafety.Airbushasinfactcomeoutwithastrategyfora2025smartfactorytoproduceanewlineofconceptplanesusinganumberofmoderntechnologies:self-drivingvehicletechnologieswillbeusedinlogisticsandmaterialhandling,smarttoolswillhelpworkersintheassembly,lasertechnologywillallowforpartsinassemblytobematchedupperfectlywithminimumtimeandeffort.3Dprintingisalreadybeingusedforsomeofthecomponentsusedintheairplane:Forexample,Arconic,anAirbussupplier,producesa3D-printedtitaniumbracketforuseinregularAirbusseriesproduction.

Aerospaceisanindustrialsectorthatisveryaffectedbypoliticaldecisions.Militarycontracts,exportsupport,tradedeals,offsets,andtechnologytransferalltendtohaveagreatereffectonthesector–atthepresenttime–thantechnologicalchange.ThismakesitdifficulttoanalyzetheeffectofIndustry4.0onthealreadyhigh-techaerospaceindustry.

AutomotiveSectorTheautomotivesectorsharessomecharacteristicswithaerospace,discussedabove.Itisalreadyheavilyautomatedandcanthereforebeexpectedtoexperienceevenmoredigitalizationinmanufacturing.Similartotheaerospacesector,anincreaseinsmartmanufacturingisapossibilityforthissectoraswell;however,sincethemarginofprofitforairplanesisalothigherthanforcars,companieswilllikelyinvestinanincrementaldigitalizationoffactoriesratherthancompletelyrenewingtheirplantswithsmartfactorytechnologies.Inthesupplychain,assistancesystemswilllikelyfindmoreuseandlogisticsmaybeextensivelyaffectedbyself-drivingtechnologiesaswell.

Whatislessclearistheimpactofnewvehiclesonthemanufacturingsystem.Itiscertainthatsomemanufacturerswillseizetheopportunitytomakefundamentalchangestotheorganizationofworkandthedegreeofusageofrobotics,whileadaptingtomarketdemandse.g.formoreelectriccarsandfewerfossil-fuelpoweredones.Itisclearthattherewillbearadicalchangeinthetransportationmarketinthenearfuture,drivennowbyclearpolicyindicationsfromseveralgovernmentsthatinternalcombustionenginesarenolongerdesired.Daimlerhasnotedthattheprofitmarginonelectriccarsis(sofar)lowerthanontraditionally-poweredcars.

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Thiswillincreasepressureonautomobilemanufacturerstoeliminatelabourtotheextentpossible.

Chemicals,Pharmaceuticals,RubberandPaperSectorsThechemicals,pharmaceuticals,rubberandpapersectorsarealreadyrelativelyadvancedwithregardtoautomation.Processcontrolcomputersarethenormratherthantheexception.Relativelyfewworkersareneededinproductionwhenprocessesarerunningsmoothly.Howeverincreasedcomputer-assistedmanufacturingandfurtheradvanceddigitalizationcanbeexpectedinthefutureforthesehighvalue-addedproductswherethepaybackperiodforsuchinvestmentswillbeshort.Thesesectorsaredominatedbylargemultinationalenterprises(MNEs)forwhichitmightbeeconomicaltoinvestintoquitesophisticateddigitalizationtechnologies.

However,particularlyindevelopingcountries,thesectorhascontinuedtoemploysignificantnumbersofworkers–particularlyinareassuchaspackagingandshipping.Thesecouldbeatrisk.Recently,DucGiangChemical&DetergentPowderJSCreplacedalmost90percentofitsworkforceatadetergentfactoryinVietnam,withrobots.Ifthisisacost-attractiveoptioninVietnam–whichuntilnowhasbeenadestinationforcompaniesseekingalow-costworkforce–thenwemaybewitnessingthebeginningoftheendoflowwagesasacompetitiveadvantage.

Aparticularconcerninthechemicalssector,sharedwiththeenergysector,isthatthereisnolongerasufficientnumberofhumanoperatorsonsiteinmanychemicalplantstodealwitharealemergency,shouldautomaticsafeguardsandshutdownsnotbesufficient.Giventhatmanysitescontainveryhazardousmaterials,thishasalreadycreatedanincreasedlevelofriskforbothworkersandthecommunitiesthatsurroundchemicalplants.

MaterialsSectorThematerialssectorisrightnowundergoingamajorchange:whileuntilrecently,thesameanalysisasforbasemetalswouldhavebeenvalid,newstudiesshowthatthesecompaniesaremuchmoreaffectedbydigitalizationthanpreviouslythought,e.g.Saint-Gobainisnowamongthetop-tenaffectedMNC’sinFrancewithrespecttoconsequencesofdigitalization:

• Customerscancreatetheirown“recipes”forspecializedmaterialson-linewiththeirownspecifications

• Materialscompaniesofferweb-basedcustomer-careandcustomerrelationssystemsaswellasjointweb-basedapplicationsplatforms.

• Automatedextractionprocesses(asintheminingindustries)• Fullyautomatizedend-to-end(extraction>processing>(packaging)>transportation)

productionprocesses• Self-analyzingkilnorfurnacemaintenancetechnology(and/oraugmentedreality

applicationsforservicetechnicians)

Thisprocessalsochangesthewholesetupinthematerialsindustriesandchangestheworkplacesintheseindustries.Thisdevelopmentisespeciallychallengingsinceweare

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talkingaboutbusiness-to-businessrelationssincehardlyanyconsumer“buys”directlyfromacementorglassorhigh-techceramicsproducer.

ShipbuildingandShipbreakingSectorsShipbuildingisamanufacturingprocessthatcanbecomparedinsomewaystoaerospaceandautomotivebuttendstoinvolvemorehumanlabourbecauseofthesizeandweightofthecomponents.Eachshipismore-or-lessacustombuild,makingautomationdifficultbutnotimpossible.Intheshortterm,informationsystemsthatmonitortheprogressofindividualcomponentsofashipfromitsoriginsinthesupplychaintoitsinstallationontheshipwillbecomeincreasinglysophisticatedandimportant.Specificareasofconstructionandcomponentswillbesubjecttodigitalizationandincreasingautomation.Inthelongerterm,sophisticatedheavyrobotscanbeexpectedtotakeoveragreatdealofthemanufacturingprocess.

Shipbreakingontheotherhandisverymuchbasedonlargenumbersofmanualworkersdismantlingretiredvesselsforrecyclinginaverylow-technologymanner.Thatiswhythisindustrymainlytakesplacetodayinthelow-wageregionsofe.g.India,PakistanandBangladesh.Furthermoresinceeachshipisdifferentandtheworkenvironmentisdifficulttosaytheleast,digitalizationandtheinvolvementofrobotscanbeexpectedtoproceedslowlyinthissectorsolongaswagesremainlow.Inthelongterm,however,giantmachinerycouldrecycleshipseffectively.Digitallystoredinformationabouttheexactassemblyofeachshipcouldenablepreciseidentificationofwhichpartscanberecycledandhowbesttodisassemblethem.Thephysicalbreakingupofashipforrecyclingcanalsobedonebymachineswithsufficientpower.Thistechnologyexists;itisonlyaquestionofwhenthecapitalcostsofsuchinformationsystemsandmassivemachineswillbejustifiableincomparisontowagecosts.

3.3HighimpactofIndustry4.0–mostdirectimpactsonindustrialsectors:

ParticularImpactsin,Energy,ICT,ElectronicsandElectrical,Mechanical

Engineering,andIndustriALL’sWhiteCollarWorkers

EnergySectorThedigitalizationofmanufacturingchangesindustriesnotonlywithregardtotheproduction,butalsowithregardtoenergyproductionandconsumption.Thedecentralizationoftheenergyproductionanddistributiongridhasitseffectsontheenergyindustryaswell.Presently,therenewableenergysourcesbestpositiontocompetewithfossilfuelsonacostbasisarewind,andsolar(othertypesofenergysourcemayalsobecompetitiveinthenearfuture).Theseposetheirownproblemsintermsoffeedingagrid.Agreatershareofenergywillbegeneratedandconsumedlocally.Whenproductionplantsareabletoself-supplyalargepartoftheirenergy,centralizedpowerplantswilllikelybedecreasinginnumber.Atthesametime,jobswillbecreatedlocallyanddecentralizedattheplantlevelandespeciallyinrenewableenergies.Fossilfuelpowerplantscouldexperienceclosuresandjoblosses–notonlybecauseofthedecentralizationoftheenergygridinthecontextofIndustry4.0,butalsointheaftermathoftheSDGsandtheParisClimateAgreementachievedatCOP21(the21stConferenceofthePartiesto

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theUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange).Electricalutilityworkerswillfacearapidlytransformingindustrywithrespecttothedistributiongrid,aswell.

Overthenextcoupleofdecades,theoilandgasindustrywillexperiencedigitaldisruptionratesthatwilldrasticallychangethecommonoperatingproceduresweknowtoday.UsingIndustry4.0technologies,oilandgascompanieswillcarryoutfullyautomateddrillingoperations,standalonepipelineinspection,andriggingandabandonmentofriggedwells.Wecanimaginethatthedigitaldisruptionofoilandgaswilloccurbroadlyandrapidly.Oilpriceswillstronglyaffecttherateofdigitaltransformationoftheindustry.

Figure8:BrentSpotOilPrices.Source:Wikimediacommons,file:Brent_Spot_monthly.svg#file

Oilpriceshaverecentlybeenvolatile,withasignificantcrashofoilpricein2008andfollowingapricerecoveryfromthatcrisis,steepdecreasesagainin2014-16(Figure8).Duringthemorerecentoilpricecrisis,oilcompaniesscaledbacktheirinvestmentsinoilandinsteadstartedtoinvestintechnology.Accordingtoinformationcompiledbyindustryexperts,wellengineeringisresponsibleforapproximately40percentofthedevelopmentcostsofatypicaloffshoredeep-waterproject.Inordertoreducetotalinvestmentinthisarea,severalinitiativeshavebeenundertakeninthesearchforamorecost-effectivewaytobuildsubseawells.Innovativetechnologies,suchasintelligentterminationsystems,allowmultipleproductionareastobeutilizedbythesamewell,reducingtheneedtoinvestintheexplorationandproductionofanareaconsistingofseveralsitesorsitesofproduction.

Alongwiththechemicalindustry,thecontinuousdownsizingoftheworkforceatoilrefineriesandpipelinecompanies(forexample)hasraisedquestionsofsafety.Increasinglyreliantonautomaticshutdowndevicestomanageemergencies,theresimplyaretoofewworkerstorespondiftheseshouldfailtofunctionasdesigned.

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ICT,ElectricalandElectronicsSectorTheICT,Electrical,andElectronics(ICT)sectormayexperiencesignificantgrowthasitisthesupplierofmanyofthetechnologiesthatwillbesoughtbyotherindustrialsectors.DigitalizationofindustrialmanufacturingimpliesthatmachineryaswellascontrollingsystemsrequiresophisticatedinformationandcommunicationstechnologiesandanincreaseddemandintheICT,electricalandelectronicssector.Thereisclearvalueoflookingatindustryingeneralintermsofintegratedvaluechainsratherthanisolatedfactories.Viewedinthislight,itisobviousthatgovernmentsmustregulatetopreventtwoorthreeleadingtechnologycompaniesfromreapingmostofthebenefitsofindustrialtransformation,leavingonlycrumbsforothersinthevaluechain.

ResearchonthisseemstoagreethatjobswillbegainedinthissectorinthecontextofIndustry4.0.Surprisingly,thissectoroverallhasnotmadestrongeffortstodigitalizecommercialgradeICTproduction–atleastatthepointofproductassembly,althoughmanufactureofchipsandelectroniccomponentsarealreadyhighlydigitalized.GiventhestrongregionalclusteringinAsiaitwouldleadtothebeliefthatthissectorwouldberelativelyunaffectedbyautomationintheshortterm.Thisisduetothecurrentlowwagesinthelabour-intensivemanufacturingcountriesoftheregionmakingahigh-leveltechnologicaltransformationbeinguneconomicalinthiscontext.However,Foxconn,asdescribedearlier,isanexampleofhowinitialeffortsinICTarealreadybeingmadeinprivateuseICTproducts(likesmartphones,tabletsetc.)andhenceitisnotunlikelythatsimilartransformationscouldbedoneincommercialgradeICT.Overall,thissectorismostlikelytobeaffectedatleastbyassistancesystemsandprobablyfurtheradvancedroboticsandworkforcedownsizinginthefuture.Theseassemblyprocessescanbeheavilyautomated.Itisalsoworthmentioningthattherewilllikelybearegionaldivisionoflabourbetweentheactualindustrialdesign(jobswon,likelyinthedevelopedworld)andindustrialmanufacturing(jobslost,likelyinthedevelopingworld).

Inaddition,astheindustrysectorthatwillleadotherstoadigitalizedworld,itisparticularlyinthissectorthatIndustriALLmuststronglymakethepointthatICTleadershaveamoralobligationtoaddresssocial,andnotjustbusiness,needs.Theconversationmuststarthereabouttheimpactonemployment,skills,anddataownershipandprivacy,amongotherthings.

MechanicalEngineeringSectorAsidefromtheICTsector,mechanicalengineeringwillbeoneofthemostaffectedsectorsbythedigitalizationofmanufacturing.Newproductionneedsnewmachineryandsotherewillbeanincreaseddemandforhigh-techmechanicalengineering.ThetransformationofthissectorhasinfactmanysimilaritieswiththesystematicsinICT,becauselikelyindustrialdesignandindustrialmanufacturingwillexperienceverydifferentemploymenteffects.Whentheproductionofmechanicalengineeringequipmentcanbedigitalized,andotherdisruptivemodernmanufacturingtechniqueslike3Dprintingcanbeusedtoreplacehumanlabour,theirproductionwillexperiencejoblosseswhileinindustrialdesignandvariousengineeringdisciplines,throughtherisingdemandforadvancedmechanicalengineeringequipment,jobsmaybewon.However,asmentionedinchapter3,thejobprofilesbetweenthoselostandthosewonareinfactverydifferent.Awhite-collarizationofnotonly(butincluding)servicesbutalso

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inproduction,creationandmaintenanceitselfisalreadyvisible:fromtechniciantoengineer,fromengineertofull-servicecustomer-care-person.

WhiteCollarWorkersSectorIndustriALL’s“white-collarworker”sectoriscomposedofworkerswhoseworkisinvolvedprimarilyinobtaining,handling,using,manipulating,analyzinganddistributinginformationandknowledgeasopposedtogoodsorproducts–eveniftheytouchthegoodorproductattimes.Untilrecently,suchworkerswerethoughttoberelativelyimmunetotheeffectsofautomationandoutsourcing.Thisisnolongerthecase,andartificialintelligencesystemsmaybeexpectedtohaveasignificantimpactonwhitecollarjobs.Administrative,technicalsupport,analysisandengineeringjobsareallsusceptibletoreplacementbyadvancedcomputersandultimatelyartificialintelligencesystems.

Oneconsequenceofthedigitalrevolutionwillbethetransformationofmanyformerlyblue-collarjobstomorecloselyresemblewhatwehaveinthepastcharacterizedaswhite-collarjobs.Productionwillbemoreandmoreaboutcontrollingtheprocess,ratherthandoingit.Maintenancejobsmaybetransferredtoserviceproviders.Thiswillhaveanimpactontradeunion’straditionalviewsofthemselvesandonIndustriALL’straditionalsectoraldivisions.

Unfortunately,whitecollarworkinaworldofindustry4.0willbecomeincreasinglystressful.Alreadyitcanbeobservedthatwhite-collarhoursofworktendtoincrease,thelinebetweenworkandfreetimebecomesmoreandmoreblurry,mobileworkcausesadditionalstressandhealthissuesandtheautomationofroutinewhitecollartasksincreasespressureonwhitecollarworkersinotherareas.Addtothisamorerapidchangeofskillsandaconstantpressuretoreadjustandthewhitecollarworkplacebecomesperfectrecipeforadrasticincreaseincasesofburn-outanddepression,withaccompanyingstress-relateddiseasessuchascirculatorydiseasesandcancer.

4. CurrentandFutureImpactsofIndustry4.0on

UnionActionsandActivities Fundamentalchangestotheeconomyarecoming,drivenbyavarietyofforces(figure9).Withdigitalizationofproducts,bigdata,andtheabilitytounderstandandreacttoindividualcustomerneedsquicklyandaccuratelyweareataninflectionpoint:therulesfromtheindustrialeraofmassproductionaregivingwaytoadigitaleraofindividualizationandoptimization.Couldwebewitnessingtheendofeconomiesofscale–whichledtothelargefactoriesandlargeconcentrationsofworkersthathavebeenthebackboneofunions’industrialmight?HowdoesIndustry4.0contributetothechangingworldofwork,whichwillalsobeunderpressurefromglobalization,inequalities,climatechange,andchangingdemographics?

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Figure9:forcesofchange

Fortradeunionstoremainstrongandrelevant,somenewthinkingandstructuresareneeded-“TradeUnion4.0”needstobeinventedandimplemented,asaneffectiveresponsetoIndustry4.0.Toensureworkers’rights,tradeunionswillneedtoadapttheirstructuresandculturetonewrealities:appealingtoayoungerandmorediverseandgeographicallydispersedworkforce,devisingwaystoorganizeisolatedworkerswhomaybeonindividualcontractsintheso-called“gigeconomy”.Thefundamentalneedfortradeunionstodefendworkers’rights,willremain.

4.1.ChangingMembershipProfile,RecruitmentandUnionStructures

TorespondtotheimpactsofIndustry4.0theexactshapethatthiswilltakehasyettobedetermined.Besidesprotectingtheinterestsoftoday’sworkers,“tradeunion4.0”willhavetorespondtotheneedsandaspirationsofayounger,morediverse,andperhapsmoreflexibleworkforcethanhastraditionallybeenthecase.Tradeunionsalsoneedtodealwiththe“white-collarization”oftheworkforce;particularlyamongstyoungerworkers.Thiswillbeachallengetoglobalunions,aslosingrelevancewiththisgroupcouldbetheendofthelabourmovement.

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Howevertherearealsoopportunitieshere,astheincreasedpressureonwhite-collarworkersmeanstheywillneedunionstoaddressworkingconditions.

Workersinnon-traditionalformsofemploymentine.g.crowd-workers,platform-workersorgigworkersinpseudo-autonomy,needrepresentationaswell.Tradeunionshavesometimesbeenquickertocondemntheseformsofworkwithoutnecessarilyconsideringtheneedsofthoseworkersalreadyinthem.IGMetall,forexample,hasrecentlyinitiatedaprogrammeofoutreachtotheseprecariousworkers.Legislativeandregulatorybarrierstodoingsoexistinsomejurisdictions,andthesemustbechallenged.

Itisalsoclearthatthelabourmovementneedsmoremembers–butfewerunions:intoomanyregionsoftheworld,wewasteagreatdealofourenergycompetingamongstourselves.Tradeunionmergersandconsolidationsmustbepartofthediscussionofhowtoadapttotherapidlychangingworldofwork.

4.2.CollectiveBargainingandSocialDialogue

Sincecollectivebargainingisourmosteffectivetool,wemustconsideraddressingIndustry4.0mattersincollectivebargainingagreements.

Successfulcollectivebargainingisafunctionofunionpower,asaneffectivecounterbalancetothepowerofcapital.Buildingunionpowermeansbuildinguniondensitywithinorganizationscapableofusingthatcollectiveworkers’power.Globally,lessthan10percentoftheworkforceisorganized.

Socialdialogueismosteffectiveinthosejurisdictionsthatgrantlegislativeandregulatorybackingtoit.This,too,ismosteasilyachievedwhenunionshavesufficientcollectivepowertohaveanimpactonpoliticalstructures.

ThetransformationsbroughtbyIndustry4.0willchallengetradeunions’collectivestrengthtoadvancetheinterestsoftoday’sandtomorrow’sworkers,aswellasthefamilies,communities,andbroadersocietythatdependonthem.

4.3.IndustrialRelations:

Industrialrelationshastraditionallymeanttherelationshipbetweenemployersandtradeunions,withinthelegislativeandregulatoryframeworkgoverningthatrelationshipinaparticularjurisdiction.Winningafairshareofprofitsandproductivitygains,intermsofimprovedwages,contentofworkandworkingconditions,andbenefitswillbeessential.IfIndustry4.0effectivelyreducesthenumberofworkersneeded,thentradeunionswillhavetolookhardatnewbenchmarkssuchasreducedworkweeks(fewerdaysperweek)orevena4-hourdayoracombinationofthese.Divertingsomeoftheproductivitygainstosocialwelfareprograms,suchaspensions,bymeansofataxonlevelsofautomation,hasbeenproposedbytheAustralianWorkers’Union.Thisautomationtaxwouldpricethelossofjobsandresultingre-educationandwelfareexpenses.Revenuecouldbeusedtosupportsocialprogrammesand

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fundaJustTransition.Attheveryleastitwouldforceaconsiderationoftheimpactofnewtechnologiesontheworkplace,andonsociety.

Intoday’scontext,withindustrialrelationsunderattackeveninsocietiesthathaveuntilnowrespectedit,theadditionalstressescausedbyIndustry4.0willdemandaggressiveorganizingbythelabourmovementtokeepup.

5. WorkerandTradeUnionRightsIndustry4.0isundoubtedlyahugetransformationthatwillhitsectorsandregionsdifferently,butthatwillaffecteachoneinonewayoranother.Thereisnovictorypossibleindefendingtheindefensibleandintryingtokeepthistransitionsfromcoming–fromaneconomicpointofviewtherearesimplytoomanybenefitsforbothcompaniesandgovernments.

ThatisnottosuggestthatIndustry4.0willnotbeusedbyanti-unionemployersandgovernmentstoattackworkers’rights:itwill.Throughouttheseveralpreviousindustrialrevolutionstradeunionshavebeenmostsuccessfulnotinpreventingtransformationsbutinmakingapossiblysociallydisastroustransformationalotmorelivableandensuringthatworkers,theirfamiliesandcommunityinterestsremainprotectedandarticulatedtowardgovernmentsandcompanies.

Today,tradeunionsaremoreimportantthaneveraswefaceanewanddrasticindustrialtransformation-theyarecrucialplayerstomanagethesocio-economicandpoliticalchange.Otherwise,thebenefitsofIndustry4.0willflowentirelytoemployersandownersofcapital;nottoworkers,andpoliticalinstabilitywillbetheresult–aresultalreadyinplayinsomeregionsastheirpathwaytofulldevelopmentbecomesrestrictedorblocked.

Althoughworkplacesmaybefundamentallytransformed,itiscrucialthatthebasicrightsofworkersandtradeunionsarerespected.TheseincludeparticularlythosementionedintheInternationalLabourOrganization“DeclarationonFundamentalPrinciplesandRightsatWork(sometimescalledILOCoreConventions),whichcovercollectivenegotiation,forcedlabour,childlabouranddiscrimination.Theconventionsconcernedareasfollows:

•FreedomofAssociationandProtectionoftheRighttoOrganiseConvention,1948(No.87)

•RighttoOrganiseandCollectiveBargainingConvention,1951(No.98)

•ForcedLabourConvention,1930(No.29)

•AbolitionofForcedLabourConvention,1957(No.105)

•MinimumAgeConvention,1973(No.138)

•WorstFormsofChildLabourConvention,1999(No.182)

•EqualRemunerationConvention,1951(No.100)

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•Discrimination(EmploymentandOccupation)Convention,1958(No.111)

Inaddition,instrumentsofinternationallawsuchastheUnitedNations’GuidingPrinciplesonBusinessandHumanRights(2011),theOECDGuidelinesforMultinationalEnterprises(2011)aswellastheILOTripartitedeclarationofprinciplesconcerningmultinationalenterprisesandsocialpolicy-4thedition(2014)willbemoreimportantthanever.

Asthedigitalisationoftheworkplaceprogresses,severalpointsmustbewon:

•therighttoinformationandconsultationrightsbyworkersrepresentatives,atthelocal,regional,nationalandinternationallevels;

•therighttoeducationandtraining;

•therighttodefinedlevelsofprivacy,atworkandathome.

Toensureworkers’rights,tradeunionswillneedtoadapttheirstructuresandculturetothenewrealitiesoftheIndustry4.0workplace,e.g.bydevisingwaystoorganizeisolatedworkerswhomaybeonindividualcontractsintheso-called“gigeconomy”.

Figure10:“HowIndustry4.0mightaffectourwork?”

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6. AJustTransitionIndustry4.0mayleadintogreaterinequalitiesinsidesocietiesaswellasriskopeninguptheregionaldividebetweenthedevelopedandthedevelopingworldtocompletelynewproportions.Precariousworksituations,pressureonwagesandpossibleworkforcedownsizingaresomeofthemostdrasticnegativeimpactsthisrevolutionmayhaveonoursocieties.Atthesametime,Industry4.0alsocomeswithanumberofpositiveeffects:Digitalizationofmanufacturingcouldmeananimprovementinworkers’healthandsafetyattheworkplacewhenthemosthazardousjobscould–andshould–bedonebyrobots(forexample,theminingofhighlyradioactivemetals).Othertaskscouldbemademoreergonomic.Sometasksincontrollingdon’trequirebeingphysicallypresentattheplantandcouldmeanthatworkerswithfamilies,andinparticularbutnotonlywomen,couldbalancefamilyandcareerbetter(improvedwork-lifebalance).Theuseofassistancesystemsandtheinherentdemandformediumskilledlabourcouldbeapowerfulboostforemergingmarketswithamediumaverageofeducationandskillinpopulation.Thedecentralizationoftheenergyproductionanddistributiongridgivesnewopportunitiestoregionsoftheworldandamorereliablesourceofenergytobothproductionplants,aswellastosurroundingcommunities.However,thepotentialandexpectationofworkplaceimprovementswillonlybecomerealityiftradeunionsareabletodeliveritthroughpoliticalaction,collectivebargaining,andindustrialaction.

Andyet,thebenefitsandrisksareclusteredverydifferentlyintheregions:Industrialdesignwillbecomeanextremelyimportantpillaroftheeconomyinthefuturewhennewandmoderntechnologiesarebeingdevelopedandwilllikelyexperiencejobgains,whileindustrialmanufacturingwilllikelyexperiencetheseeffectsquitedifferentlythroughautomationandjoblosses.Workerscannotbetheonespayingforatransformationthattheydidnotdecideuponorevenhaveavoicein.EvenwiththemoreeconomicalandenvironmentallysustainableproductionthatIndustry4.0promises,workersstillneedtosupporttheirfamilies,investintheirchildren’sfutures,andmakeacomfortableliving.Today,wheretheuseofdigitalizationinindustryisstillrelativelysmall,manyworkersalreadycannotdothatbecauseoftherecklessnessandunwillingnessofsomecompaniestopayalivingwage,changeprecariousworkingconditionsandimproveworkers’occupationalhealthandsafety.Wecannotallowthatinthecontextofthisnewandapproachingtransformation.

Theweakestlinksinourglobaleconomycannotbeaskedtopaythepricewhileothersthriveandcompaniesmakebillionsinrevenues.AJustTransition,originallyproposedinresponsetotheneedtoprotectthenaturalenvironment,isnowmoreimportantthaneverwhenitcomestoIndustry4.0.TheaimisnottohaltIndustry4.0–thataimwouldfail–butitistomakethistransformationsociallysustainableandjust,toallworkersalike.IndustriALLwantsafutureofworkthatembracesthepositiveimpactsthatIndustry4.0maybringforallofsocietywhilemakingsurethatworkersaren’tlefttopaythedebtsofcompaniesandgovernmentsunwillingtomakethistransitionsociallyresponsible.Wecannotallowthebenefitstobeprivatizedandthecoststobesocialized.

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ItisuptoustodefinewhatwouldbeneededforthetransitiontobeperceivedbyworkersasaJustTransition,andthenfighttoachievethatstandard.StrongsocialsafetynetsareaprerequisiteforaJustTransitionprogram,butaresorttosuchsafetynetswillneverbelabour’sfirstchoice.Ourfirstchoice,andthemostJustTransitionpossible,willalwaysbetocreate,evolve,ormaintainsustainablejobs.

AJustTransitionprogramismeanttobeanall-encompassing,flexibleapproachtohelpingworkers,theirfamilies,andtheircommunities.JustTransitionisnotasuicidepact.Itisnotmerelyanenhancedunemploymentprogram.Itmustinvolveworkersinitsdesign,anditmustbecustomizedtoeachsituationinordertoavoiditbeingviewedassimplyanenhancedunemploymentprogram.AJustTransitionprogrammighteven,plausibly,assistinthecreativerestructuringofobsoleteindustrialsites.Anditmustkeepworkersandtheirunionswhole.

Traditionallabourmarketadjustmentprogramshaveoftenbeentop-downprogramswiththeneedsandgoalsdefinedbybusiness,althoughthereareexamplesofmoreinclusiveprocessesinEurope.AJustTransition,ontheotherhand,wouldofferthosemostaffectedthegreatestchoiceinwhathappenstothem.Labourmarketadjustmentprogramsshouldtakeaccountofindividual,family,andcommunityneedsandwants.Someworkersmightwantenhancedearlyretirement.Othersmightwanttogotoacollegeoruniversityandstudyafieldunrelatedtowhattheyweredoing.Somemightwanttoenteranapprenticeshipprogram.Ifsomenewjobsarebeingcreatedinthetransitiontoadigitalizedeconomy,thosedisplacedfromdisfavouredjobsshouldhavetherightoffirstrefusal,withmovingandotherassistanceifnecessary.Itisimportantforworkersthattheirrightsasunionmembersbeprotected,aswell,anditisentirelyreasonableforunionstodemandinstitutionalstability–protectionfortheunionasaninstitution–throughthetransitionperiod,aswell.Thiscouldmean,forexample,voluntaryrecognitionoftheunionwherenewjobsarebeingcreatedthroughtheprocessofdigitalization.

Thequestionisfundamentallywhopaysfor,andwhobenefitsfrom,atransitiontodigitalization.Workersandtheirtradeunionsneedtobepartofthedecisionmakingprocesswhenthefatesofmillionsofworkersarebeingdecidedupon.Thisalsomeans,however,thatinternationalworkers’solidarityismoreimportantthanever.

7. ConclusionsTechnologicalchangecanleadtogoodorbadoutcomesdependinguponhumansandhumandecisions.WhereIndustry4.0isadopted,labourmustinsistthattherearebenefitsforworkers.

Wheredigitalizationandadvancedtechnologiesarepresentedasadvantageousbyemployersorgovernments,wemustaskwhatthebenefitwillbetoworkers,andtosocietyatlarge,oftheirintroduction.IGMetall’sJochenSchrothoffersthefollowingtable(figure11)foranalysisofthebenefit,whichcanbeveryuseful(translatedfromDigitalizationandIndustry4.0-Strategiesforimplementingcompanypolicy,IGMetall2017).

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Thetwocolumns,leftandright,implyadvantagetohumansversusadvantagetomachines.Unlessthechangesadheretotheprinciplesoutlinedinthelefthandcolumn,wemustrejectthem.Figure11:

Humansusesystem Systemuseshumans

Controlofwork

Upgradingjobqualifications,highemployeeinfluenceoverobjectivesanddesignofworkandtasks

Downgradingofjobs;narrowdefinitionoftaskswithahighlevelofstandardization

Organi-zationofwork

Cooperation,participationandcomplexinteractionsbetweengroupsofemployees

Highresponsibility/lowscopeforaction

Technology Highlydemandingandunattractivetasksperformede.g.bylightweightrobots

Goaloffullautomation;numberofemployeesasfewaspossible

Qualifi-cations/Compe-tences

Comprehensiveeducationandtraining(onandoffthejob),betteropportunitiesforupwardmobility

Onlytrainingonthejob

Data Accesstoinformationandknowledgeforproblemsolving;personaldataisprotected

Useofpersonaldatatocontrolbehaviorandincreaseoutput

Formsofhuman-centredtechnologymustbepromotedbyunions,employersandgovernments,withbetteroutcomesforworkers,moreresponsivetechnologieswhichdon’tjustleavetheresponsetotechnologiestoconsumers,andhealthierandsaferoutcomes.WemustmaketechnologyworkforusandnotsimplyallowIndustry4.0todefineanewwaveofintensifiedworkandmoreprecariouswork.Wemustpromotecollectiveresponsestotechnology,andlimitthepowerofcapitalanditsdesiretopromoteinequality.Whenwedemandthatgovernmentsindevelopednationsalsotakeintoaccountthepossibleconsequencesthishasondevelopingnations’economies,itremainsclearthatnationaltradeunionstrategiesshouldalsoaccountforothernationalinterestsinourglobalizedeconomy.

AmyWebb,theCEOofastrategyfirmintheUS,wascitedaboutherreactiontoIndustry4.0saying“Thecollarofthefutureisahoodie.”Andwhilethatmightbetrue,weneedtomakesurethatthehoodiesintheworldandtheblueandwhitecollarsintheworldremainunifiedintheprocessofinterestarticulation.Undoubtedly,thisalsomeansthattradeunionsmaystumble

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acrossanumberofproblemsinkeepingmemberswhenthenumbersoftraditionalindustrialworkersarefalling.Tradeunionsneedtobepreparedforboth:Facingnewstrategieswithregardtomembershipssotheirnumbers(andhencetheirimpact)arenotfallinganddemandingaseatatthetablewithgovernmentsandcompanieswhendecisionsaboutIndustry4.0aremade.Sometimes,wemustdemandthatthetablebeconstructedsincemanygovernmentsarenotyetaddressingIndustry4.0inanysystematicmanner!

Fortradeunionstoremainstrongandrelevant,somenewthinkingandstructuresareneeded-“TradeUnion4.0”needstobeinventedandimplementedtorespondtotheimpactsofIndustry4.0.Theexactshapethatthiswilltakehasyettobedeterminedbut,besidesprotectingtheinterestsoftoday’sworkers,itwillhavetorespondtotheneedsandaspirationsofayounger,morediverse,andperhapsmoreflexibleworkforcethanhastraditionallybeenthecase.Losingrelevancewiththisgroupwouldbetheendofthelabourmovement.Itisalsoclearthatthelabourmovementneedsmoremembers–butfewerunions.Buildingunionpowermeansbuildinguniondensitywithinorganizationscapableofusingcollectiveworkers’power.

Industry4.0willrequirearethinkingofthecurrentrelianceonwealthdistributionthroughdependentgainfulemploymentandinthecontextofJustTransition,areformofourdefinitionofproductivenessisabsolutelycrucial.Humanneedsmustbeprioritized.Thevaluethatisgiventohumanworkwillchange,butthedefinitionofproductiveindustrialworkmightnotbefitforthenewtransformationthatIndustry4.0meansforoursocieties;andourideasaboutthepreferredmechanismofwealthdistributionwillneedtoadaptorevolve.Schemessuchasaguaranteedminimumincomenotcontingentonemployment,needcloserexaminationespeciallyontaxation.Sotoodoestheparticipationofemployersinthefinancingofeducationandtrainingsothatlife-longlearningcanbecomereality.Furthermorewhileundoubtedlyengineeringandtechnologywillbecrucialinthefuture,noteveryonecanorwantstobecomeandengineerortechnicianbutmightinsteadwanttobechangingintoajobthatistraditionallynotseenasproductive(intheindustrialorfinancialsense),butmayhavesignificantpositive,innovativeeffectsonsociety(likee.g.music,orliterature).Thistransformationhenceallowsforrethinkingofavarietyoftraditionalpolicyfieldsandanewdiscussionaboutwhatproductivitymeansinthiscontextwillbenecessary(i.e.carework,artists,etc.)–becauseinthelongrun,nohumanworkerwillbeabletocompetewiththeproductivityofmachines,robotsandAI–factoriesasweknowthemtodaywillberadicallytransformedordisappearaltogether.

ItisclearthatIndustry4.0isaglobalphenomenonrequiringglobalactionandpowerfulunionsandunionactivitiestoaccompanythistransitioninordertomaximizethepositive,andmitigatesomeofthenegativeeffects;andensurethatworkers’interestsaretakenintoaccount.ForIndustriALL,politicalactionisneedednowandisrequiredto:

• acknowledgethatIndustry4.0isnotjustanothertechnologicalinnovation,butinsteadquitepossiblytheindustrialtransformationwiththestrongestimpactontheworkforceinthehistoryofmanufacturing

• globallydiscussthepotentialthreatsandopportunitieswithitsmembersandmakeIndustry4.0atoppriorityforstrategicpolicyinthefuture

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• formulateapolicyonIndustry4.0alignedwiththeexistingSustainableIndustrialPolicyActionPlan

• takeaseatatthetable(ordemandthecreationofone!)withgovernmentsandcompanieswhenthefatesofmillionsofworkers,theirfamiliesandcommunitiesaredecidedupon

• formulateaconsistentandextensiveJustTransitionproposaltobepartofthediscussionwithgovernmentsandcompanies

• makeconsequencesandchangesalongwithIndustry4.0partoftheagendainSocialDialoguecommitteesandGlobalFrameworkAgreementnegotiations

• engageintensivelyandjoinforceswiththeILO1aswellaswiththeUNonbehalfoftheSustainableDevelopmentGoalsgiventhecommitmenttodecentwork,reducedinequalitiesandpartnershiptoensureaJustTransitionthatdoesnotworsenthepre-existinginequalitiesbetweencapitalandlabor,especiallyinthedevelopingworld

• encourageIndustriALLmemberunionslobbytoupgradenationaleducationalpoliciestomatchthechangingskillsdemandfollowingIndustry4.0,butalsototeachflexibilityandinnovationinallofthedimensionsofsustainability

• considerthepossibilitiesoftakinganactiveroleinthedesignanddeliveryofeducationandtrainingforthedigitalage

• engageinintenseunionbuildingactivities,especiallyinthedevelopingworldandsectorswithpredominantlyprecariouswork,andwithafocusonwomenandyoungworkers,minorities,andequity-seekinggroups

• developastrategyfortradeunionrolesinthefuturegiventhedecreasingnumberoftraditionallaborersandapossiblelossinmembership

Intheemergingborderless,connected,andglobalizedeconomynewstrategieswillbekeytomaintainingandincreasingtheimportanceoftheglobaltradeunionmovement,ifnotaconditionofitssurvival.

Sustainableindustrialpolicymeanshavingaplan.Thecontentsofthatplanmustbebasedonanassessmentofhowtosteertowardsadestinationwewantasasociety,ratherthanadestinationthatisfavourabletoonlyafew.ThedrivetowardstheFourthIndustrialRevolutionmakesadiscussionofwhatasustainableindustrialpolicywouldlooklike,muchmoreurgent.Thiscanonlyhappenwiththefullparticipationofallmajorstakeholders–particularlylabour.

1. Seee.g.TheFutureofWorkInitiative/GlobalCommissionontheFutureofWork(http://www.regeringen.se/4a42ad/contentassets/6062511d88d34aa39a897b0c02720556/informationsmaterial-om-fn-kommissionens-arbete.pdf)