Table of contentsasecib.ase.ro/simpozion/2012/abstracte.pdf16. Ioana MANAFI, Daniela MARINESCU - On...
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Table of contents 1. Daniela-Luminita CONSTANTIN, Zizi GOSCHIN - Principles, criteria and indicators used in multi-criteria analysis as a tool for municipal property management 2. Mădălina Ecaterina ANDREICA, Ion DOBRE - Applying an Interval Data Algorithm for Solving Stock Portfolio Selection Problem 3. Ileana ANASTASE (BĂDULESCU) - Factors with impact on the future of the enterprise 4. Emilia CALEFARIU, Gabriela PRELIPCEAN ,Mircea BOSCOIANU - The role of innovation in modern architectures of collaborative networks 5. Victor Adrian BADESCU, Radu Nicolae CRISTEA - Considerations for evaluating portfolios with high systematic risk 6. Raluca Brandabur - Pharmaceutical market during the economic crisis 7. Georgiana BRINZA - Decision-making models for managing end-of- use products 8. Iuliana CHERBELEATA - Mergers, Acquisitions and Game Theory 9. Adrian COPIE - Cloud Computing - the IT response to the economic crisis 10. Radu SERBAN, Mihaela COVRIG, Iulian MIRCEA - The algorithm of the tangent hiperbola for one dimensional optimization numerical results 11. Raluca DIMITRIU Hesitations of the Romanian «flexicurity». A legal approach 12. Alina HALAUCA (UDREA), Crişan ALBU -Consumer behavior characterization using cluster analysis 13. Catalin HUIDUMAC, Alexandru Catalin POPA - Monetary policies role in overcoming the financial crisis 14. Cristian IONESCU - Structural approach to financial instability 15. Iulian MIRCEA, Mihaela COVRIG, Radu SERBAN - The ruin probabilities at discrete-time insurance models 16. Ioana MANAFI, Daniela MARINESCU - On Optimal Trainings and Employee Preferences 17. Daniela Elena MARINESCU, Ioana MANAFI, Dumitru MARIN The Influence of Private Information on the Optimal Insurance Contracts 18. Nora CHIRIŢĂ, Ioana-Alexandra BRADEA - Using Computer for Enterprise Risk Management 19. Ion PARTACHI, Olga PANIS - Diagnosis and estimation of monetary policy shocks in the context of interest rate channel operation in the Republic of Moldova 20. Daniel Traian PELE, Miruna MAZURENCU MARINESCU, Cristian PĂUN - Modelling the impact of investment in reserach-development-
Transcript of Table of contentsasecib.ase.ro/simpozion/2012/abstracte.pdf16. Ioana MANAFI, Daniela MARINESCU - On...
Table of contents 1. Daniela-Luminita CONSTANTIN, Zizi GOSCHIN - Principles, criteria
and indicators used in multi-criteria analysis as a tool for municipal property management
2. Mădălina Ecaterina ANDREICA, Ion DOBRE - Applying an Interval Data Algorithm for Solving Stock Portfolio Selection Problem
3. Ileana ANASTASE (BĂDULESCU) - Factors with impact on the future of the enterprise
4. Emilia CALEFARIU, Gabriela PRELIPCEAN ,Mircea BOSCOIANU - The role of innovation in modern architectures of collaborative networks
5. Victor Adrian BADESCU, Radu Nicolae CRISTEA - Considerations for evaluating portfolios with high systematic risk
6. Raluca Brandabur - Pharmaceutical market during the economic crisis 7. Georgiana BRINZA - Decision-making models for managing end-of-
use products
8. Iuliana CHERBELEATA - Mergers, Acquisitions and Game Theory 9. Adrian COPIE - Cloud Computing - the IT response to the economic
crisis
10. Radu SERBAN, Mihaela COVRIG, Iulian MIRCEA - The algorithm of the tangent hiperbola for one dimensional optimization numerical results
11. Raluca DIMITRIU Hesitations of the Romanian «flexicurity». A legal approach
12. Alina HALAUCA (UDREA), Crişan ALBU -Consumer behavior characterization using cluster analysis
13. Catalin HUIDUMAC, Alexandru Catalin POPA - Monetary policies role in overcoming the financial crisis
14. Cristian IONESCU - Structural approach to financial instability 15. Iulian MIRCEA, Mihaela COVRIG, Radu SERBAN - The ruin
probabilities at discrete-time insurance models
16. Ioana MANAFI, Daniela MARINESCU - On Optimal Trainings and Employee Preferences
17. Daniela Elena MARINESCU, Ioana MANAFI, Dumitru MARIN The Influence of Private Information on the Optimal Insurance Contracts
18. Nora CHIRIŢĂ, Ioana-Alexandra BRADEA - Using Computer for Enterprise Risk Management
19. Ion PARTACHI, Olga PANIS - Diagnosis and estimation of monetary policy shocks in the context of interest rate channel operation in the Republic of Moldova
20. Daniel Traian PELE, Miruna MAZURENCU MARINESCU, Cristian PĂUN - Modelling the impact of investment in reserach-development-
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inovation, a way to relaunch the Romanian economy 21. Marcel PETRE Analysis of the Periods of Growth / Decrease of FTSE
Index and the Estimation of Value at Risk
22. Stelian STANCU Alexandra Maria CONSTANTIN, Oana Madalina PREDESCU (POPESCU) , Violeta Steliana STANCU (POPA ) - Analysis on adjustment of the Romanian macroeconomic system using multidimensional statistical analysis techniques
23. Stelian STANCU Alexandra Maria CONSTANTIN, Oana Madalina PREDESCU (POPESCU) , Violeta Steliana STANCU (POPA ) - Sovereign debt crisis in Romania
24. Gheorghe RUXANDA, Cristina - Alexandra TOADER - Exchange Rates Forecasting with BVAR Models
25. Gheorghe RUXANDA, Cristina - Alexandra TOADER - Forecasting Exchange Rates with TVP-VAR’S
26. Adina UTA, Iulian INTORSUREANU - Experiments with an evolutionary algorithm for solving the single machine scheduling problem
27. Constantin BELU - Merger reviews and post-merger evaluation with DEA
28. Monica ROMAN, Bogdan ILEANU, Elena PRADA - A comparative analysis of remittance behaviour between East European and North African migrants
29. Constantin Catalin DUMITRESCU, Bogdan CHIRIACESCU, Mariana Olivia DESPA (DUMITRESCU) , Ana-Maria BANCU - Methods to assess the linkage between real economy and financial sector
30. Bogdan CHIRIACESCU, Ana-Maria BANCU, Mariana Olivia DESPA (DUMITRESCU) , Constantin Catalin DUMITRESCU - Credit Risk of the Corporate Sector
31. Maria Denisa VASILESCU (ANTONIE) - A review of labour supply models
32. Magdalena Lucica TALVAN, Georgiana-Alice NICHITA Game theory elements used in teaching approach
33. Ileana NICULESCU-ARON, Constanta MIHAESCU - Savings of the Romanian Households – Recent Aspects in the Context of the World Financial Crisis
34. Elisabeta JABA, Ioan-Bogdan ROBU, Christiana Brigitte BALAN, Mihaela-Alina ROBU - The Use of Panel Data Analysis for Fraud Risk Assessment in Financial Auditing
35. Ana ANDREI, Professor Antonio IMPERATO - Inequality and Economic Growth: Some Theoretical and Empirical Aspects
36. Elena Adriana ANDREI - Challenges of European real growth after the financial crisis
37. Mihai ROMAN - A search model on labor market. Study case on Romania
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38. Mioara BANCESCU, Emil SCARLAT - Description of the national energetic system from the perspective of a complex adaptive system
39. Ágnes HEGYI-KÉRI - Industrial depression areas’ migration processes from the view point of structural changes
40. Zsuzsanna DABASI HALÁSZ, Kinga FEKSZI - „Catapult” The impact of the deepening labour market of the emigration
41. Catalin HUIDUMAC, Radu Marcel JOIA - Economic recovery premises in Romania
42. Klara Szita TOTH - The green world economy – a dream or reality? 43. Mihai ROMAN, Ioan Eugen TIGANESCU - Social inequality and
income distribution in Romania
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Principles, criteria and indicators used in multi-criteria analysis as a tool for municipal property management Authors: Professor Daniela-Luminita CONSTANTIN, PhD.1, Professor Zizi GOSCHIN, PhD.2 The Bucharest University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania Abstract
In most decision making situations more than one criterion is involved and, as a consequence, confusion can arise if there is no logical and well structured decision-making process in place. The multi-criteria analysis (MCA) constitutes a tool that can help evaluate the relative importance of all criteria involved and reflect on their importance during project management and decision making. MCA is a management tool aiming at supporting decision makers faced with making numerous and conflicting evaluations by deriving a way to come to a compromise.
This paper discusses the possibilities of applying MCA in the field of municipal property management, where the decision-makers have to find the most convenient destinations of municipal assets that can be used for various purposes such as: governmental, business, social use. Based on the principles that lay the foundations for applying MCA, it focuses on the specific criteria and indicators employed in each case in the ranking and rating process, so as to get the corresponding weighted score.
The paper is drawn on the research carried out for the project entitled “Municipal Property Management in South- Eastern Cities (PROMISE)”, funded by the ERDF within the South-East Territorial Co-operation Programme.
Keywords: multi-criteria analysis, principles, criteria, indicators, ranking, municipal assets, management JEL Classification: C61, R11
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Applying an Interval Data Algorithm for Solving Stock Portfolio Selection Problem Authors: Assist. Mădălina Ecaterina ANDREICA3 PhD, Professor Ion DOBRE4 PhD, The Bucharest University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania Abstract In this paper a stock portfolio selection problem is solved by applying a particular portfolio selection algorithm for interval data, which allows reaching different optimal portfolio solutions based on the decision maker risk. Keywords: Stock Portfolio Selection, Interval Data, Multi-Attribute Decision Making JEL Classification: G11, D81
3 E-mail: [email protected] 4 E-mail: [email protected]
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Utilizarea unui algoritm cu date cu intervale de variaţie pentru problema selecţiei portofoliului optim de acţiuni Autori: Asist. dr. Mădălina Ecaterina ANDREICA, Prof. univ. dr. Ion DOBRE Rezumat În cadrul acestei lucrări se rezolvă problema de selecţie a unui portofoliu de acţiuni prin aplicarea unui algoritm particular de selecţie a portofoliului optim pentru cazul datelor descrise prin intervale de variaţie. Acest algoritm permite identificarea unor soluţii diferenţiate, în funcţie de tipul de aversiune la risc a decidentului. Cuvinte cheie: selecţia portofoliului de acţiuni, date cu intervale de variaţie, metode de decizii multi-atribut Clasificare JEL: G11, D81
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Factors with impact on the future of the enterprise Author: Lecturer Ileana ANASTASE (BĂDULESCU),PhD5 Tomis University, Constanta, Romania Abstract This paper approaches aspects pertaining to the operation of the enterprise in the country determining the principles and external environment of the company. The same enterprise, operating in the “globalized” environment, considerably modifies the behavior, operation rules, business principles and environment. The estimate of the development potential of the enterprise assumes its successful operation, that is the imaginary existence of this company with other possibilities for production, sale, with another structure of the final product, with another efficiency. It is natural to admit that the manager of the company will position the increasing potential of the company. However, in dependence with the impact of the technical-scientific and exogenous factors progress, the enterprise could reduce its productive potential. In this context, to ensure the development of the enterprise, the financial level of the company should be taken into account. The companies with considerable financial level are relatively more flexible, they can change economic partners, make attempts to implement the technical-scientific success, accept more easily the productive and organizational structure changes. The enterprise is viable if it can align the final products structure to the global structures; it modernizes its economic and partnership business inside the company, systemic appears in the agenda the problem of renovations and implementation of innovations. Keywords: enterprise, modernization, economic potential, company of the future JEL Classification: D24
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Factori de impact asupra întreprinderii viitorului Autor: Lect. Dr. Ileana ANASTASE (BĂDULESCU), Rezumat Lucrarea abordează aspecte ce tin de functionarea întreprinderii în interiorul ţării care determină principiile şi mediul exterior al firmei. Aceeaşi întreprindere, funcţionând în mediul “globalizat”, considerabil îşi modifică comportamentul, regulile de funcţionare, principiile şi mediul de afaceri. Estimarea potenţialului de dezvoltare al întreprinderii presupune funcţionarea cu succes a acesteia, adică existenţa imaginară a acestei firme cu alte posibilităţi de producere, de desfacere, cu o altă structură a produsului final, cu o altă eficienţă. Firesc e să admitem că managerul firmei va poziţiona potenţialul întreprinderii în creştere. Însă, în dependenţă de impactul progresului tehnico-ştiinţific, al factorilor exogeni, întreprinderea ar putea să-şi reducă potenţialul productiv. În acest context, pentru asigurarea dezvoltării întreprinderii trebuie de ţinut cont de nivelul financiar al firmei. Firmele cu un potenţial financiar considerabil, sunt relativ mai flexibile, îşi pot schimba partenerii economici, fac încercări de a implementa succesele tehnico-ştiinţifice, acceptă mai uşor schimbările de structură productivă, organizatorică. Întreprinderea este viabilă dacă îşi poate alinia structura produselor finale la structurile globale; îşi modernizează afacerile economice, de parteneriat, în interiorul întreprinderii, sistemic la ordinea zilei apare problema renovărilor, implementării inovaţiilor. Cuvinte cheie: întrepindere, modrnizare, potențial economic, firma viitorului Clasificare JEL: D24
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The role of innovation in modern architectures of collaborative networks Authors: Emilia CALEFARIU PhD.6, Professor Gabriela PRELIPCEAN PhD.7 , Professor Mircea BOSCOIANU PhD.8 Transilvania University of Brasov, Romania Stefan cel Mare University of Suceava, Romania Henri Coanda Air Force Academy of Brasov, Romania Abstract The role of innovation in the processes of building and development of new architectures of collaborative networks is essential in the actual context because it supports a robust development of the innovation capacity, competitiveness and wealth creation. The modern literature on strategic/ value networks is more focused on the analysis at the net level in order to build effective strategies for networks. The sociological perspective should be revised in order to include the actual mechanisms and preferences. There are only few case studies for emerging markets and the interest of this paper is also to develop this kind of researches in Romania. Keywords: innovation, opportunity, architectures of collaborative networks JEL classification: D85
6 [email protected] 7 [email protected], 8 [email protected]
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Rolul inovării în arhitectura modernă a reţelelor colaborative Autori: Dr. Emilia CALEFARIU, Profesor dr. Gabriela PRELIPCEAN , Profesor dr. Mircea BOSCOIANU Rezumat Rolul inovării în procesele de construcţie şi dezvoltare a noilor arhitecturi ale reţelelor colaborative este esenţial în contextul actual deoarece presupune o dezvoltare robustă a capacităţii de inovare a competitivităţii şi a puterii de creaţie. Literatura modernă din domeniul reţelelor strategice este orientată pe analize la nivel de reţea în vederea construirii de strategii. Perspectiva sociologică va trebui revizuită astfel încât să includă preferinţele şi mecanismele actuale. În acest context, pe pieţele emergente există doar câteva studii iar prin acest articol ne propunem să dezvoltăm astfel de cercetări în România. Cuvinte cheie: inovare, oportunitate, arhitectură a reţelelor colaborative Clasificare JEL: D85
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Considerations for evaluating portfolios with high systematic risk Authors: Professor Victor Adrian BADESCU, PhD.9, Radu Nicolae CRISTEA, PhD.10 The Bucharest University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania Abstract
It is well known that realistic assessment of the phenomena taken into account in formulating any capital investment decisions is one of the factors that caused the last economic crisis, whose repercussions are still being felt throughout the economic environment. This paper proposes a new approach to the methods for selecting the optimal value as an integral part of decision-making algorithm by using fuzzy sets theory. The approach makes use of concepts and procedures found in fuzzy mathematics to bring more flexibility and thus an increase in research detail. Based on these concepts, the paper uses fuzzy logic theory to assist the behaviour of a investor on the stock market, managing to capture, in great detail its dynamic nature. Further on, the model proposed in the paper distinguishes between the behaviour of an investor’ and its competition therefore providing necessary mathematical support in order to simulate the stock market. At the end of the paper, we illustrate its effectiveness by integrating the model into a decision-making procedure. Then, we compare the results obtained by the proposed model with those obtained by conventional methodologies. We achieve an increase in portfolio profitability well above the minimum threshold of any capital investment decision, i.e. bank interest.
Keywords: Fuzzy theory, portfolio decisions, fuzzy logic JEL Classification: G11
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Considerente privind evaluarea portofoliilor în situaţii de risc sistematic ridicat Autori: Prof.. Dr. Victor Adrian BADESCU, Dr. Radu Nicolae CRISTEA Rezumat Este bine cunoscut faptul că evaluarea nerealistă a fenomenelor luate în considerare la formularea oricărei decizii de plasament de capital reprezintă unul dintre factorii care au generat recenta criză economică, ale cărei repercusiuni încă se fac simţite în mediul economic. Prezenta lucrare propune o nouă abordare a metodelor de selecţie a portofoliilor, ca parte integrată a algoritmului decizional, utilizând teoria mulţimilor vagi. Abordarea face apel la concepte şi proceduri din matematica fuzzy, pentru a aduce un plus de flexibilitate şi implicit un spor de detaliu în cercetare. Pornind de la aceste concepte, lucrarea apelează la teoria logicii fuzzy pentru a asista comportamentul unui investitor pe piaţa de capital, reuşind să surprindă, în detaliu, caracterul dinamic al acestuia. Modelul propus în lucrare face distincţie între comportamentul unui investitor şi cel al concurenţei, asigurând suportul matematic necesar simulării dinamice a pieţei de capital. În finalul lucrării, pentru exemplificarea utilităţii acesteia, integrăm modelul într-o procedură decizională şi comparăm rezultatele obţinute prin exemplificarea practică a modelului propus cu cele obţinute prin metodologiile clasice. Relevăm o creştere a rentabilităţii portofoliului peste pragul minim al oricărei decizii de plasare de capital, furnizat de dobânda bancară. Cuvinte cheie: teoria fuzzy, decizii de portofoliu, logică fuzzy Classificare JEL: G11
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Pharmaceutical market during the economic crisis Author: Raluca E. Brandabur, PhD11, The Bucharest University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania Abstract Despite the global economic crisis, the pharmaceutical industry remains one of the most active and dynamic domain, registering a continuously annual growths, although their growth rate is declining. Beyond having a meritory contribution to the medical progress and improvement of the population’s health, the European and worldwide pharmaceutical industry is one of the most valuable industries. It is an highly developed and technologized industry, with a large number of high qualified employees, which creates in the same time a large number of other jobs, upstream and downstream. Sectors like packaging, wholesale distribution or pharmacies sales are strictly dependent by the changes in this area. Even if the progress of civilization led to improved health conditions, affections’ alleviation and the biological incapacities from one generation to another, they didn’t satisfy the health. This paper aims to examine, in the context of the global economic crisis, the situation and perspectives of the pharmaceutical market. Keywords: pharmaceutical industry, crisis, prognosis JEL Classification: L65
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Piaţa farmaceutică în perioada crizei economice Autor: Raluca E. Brandabur Rezumat In pofida crizei economice mondiale, industria farmaceutica ramane unul dintre cele mai active si dinamice domenii, inregistrand cresteri anuale, chiar daca ritmul acestora este in scadere. Dincolo de a avea meritul contribuţiei la progresul medical şi îmbunătăţirea stării de sănătate a populaţiei, atât în Europa cât şi la nivel mondial, industria farmaceutică este una dintre cel mai valoroase industrii. Este o industrie dezvoltată şi tehnologizată, cu un mare număr de angajaţi superior calificaţi, şi totodată creează o serie de alte locuri de muncă în amonte şi în aval. Sectoare cum sunt: ambalarea, distribuţia en-gross sau prin farmacii, sunt strict dependente de schimbările survenite în acest domeniu. Chiar dacǎ progresele civilizaţiei, au condus la ameliorarea afecţiunilor, la micşorarea disabilitǎţilor şi a incapacitǎţii biologice, de la o generaţie la alta, acestea nu au acoperit satisfacerea stǎrii de sǎnǎtate şi ca directă şi firească urmare industria farmaceutică este în continuă expansiune. Prezenta lucrare isi propune sa analizeze, in contextul crizei economice globale, situatia si perspectivele pietei farmaceutice. Cuvinte cheie: industrie farmaceutica, criză, perspective Classificare JEL: L65
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Decision-making models for managing end-of-use products Author: Georgiana BRINZA, PhD Student.12 The Bucharest University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania Abstract At present the interest in environmental aspects of the activities that our society undertakes is quite low and threatens the welfare and quality of life of all living beings from this planet. Consumption growth has immediate effects on increasing consumption of raw materials and energy, which leads to depletion of natural resources of the world. In order to eliminate / reduce environmental impacts that human activities produce, the concept of environmentally conscious manufacturing (ECM) was created. This involves planning, developing and implementing the manufacturing processes and technologies that reduce or eliminate losses and minimize waste. The benefits of this method are not limited only to the above, but include: reduced waste disposal costs, reduced environmental and health risks, increased productivity and quality etc. One of the most important elements of a traditional and reversible supply chain is the strategic planning. In core aspect of the strategic planning is that only certain end-of-use products need to be purchased and from the most suitable suppliers in order to achieve profitability and environmental objectives. This paper addresses the following two problems related to supply, for each of them being developed a quantitative decision-making model: what end-of-use products should be chosen to be reprocessed? and from which suppliers will these end-of-use products be purchased? We answer to the first question with a Linear Physical Programming (LPP) model and for the second problem we build a model based on Analytical Network Process (ANP) and Goal Programming. Keywords: reverse supply chain, strategic planning, physical programming, end-of-use products, Analytical Network Process (ANP) JEL Classification: C44, C61, M11, Q01, Q56
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Modele de decizie pentru gestionarea produselor end-of-use Autor: Drd. Georgiana BRINZA Rezumat In prezent interesul pentru aspectele ecologice ale activitatilor pe care societatea in care traim le intreprinde este destul de scazut si ameninta bunastarea si calitatea vietii tuturor vietuitoarelor planetei. Cresterea consumului are ca effect imediat cresterea consumului de materii prime si de energie, ceea ce conduce la diminuarea resurselor natural ale globului. In scopul eliminarii/ reducerii efectelor negative asupra mediului pe care activitatile umane le produc, a fost creat conceptul de Productie ecologic-constienta (ECM). Aceasta presupune activitati de planificare, dezvoltare si implementare a proceselor de fabricatie si a tehnologiilor care sa reduca sau sa elimine pierderile si sa minimizeze resturile/ rebuturile. Beneficiile acestei metode nu se reduc doar la cele de mai sus, ci includ si: costuri reduse de eliminare a deseurilor, riscuri reduse de mediu si sanatate, productivitate si calitate marita si nu numai. Unul dintre cele mai importante elemente ale unui lant de distributie traditional si reversibil in acelasi timp il reprezinta planificarea strategica. In cadrul acesteia doar anumite produse “end-of-use” trebuie achizitionate, dar de la furnizorii cei mai potriviti, cu scopul de a atinge obiectivele de profitabilitate si de mediu. Lucrarea de fata dezvolta urmatoarele doua probleme legate de aprovizionare, pentru care sunt construite cate un model cantitativ de luare a deciziilor: ce produse “end-of-use” ar trebui alese pentru a fi reprocesate? si de la ce furnizori se vor achizitiona prodesele “end-of-use”? La prima intrebare vom raspunde cu un model de programare liniara fizica, iar pentru a doua problema vom construi un model bazat pe Procesul de Analiza a Retelei si pe Programarea Scopurilor. Cuvinte cheie: lant de distributie reversibil, planificare strategica, programarea fizica, produse end-of-use, Procesul de Analiza a Retelei Clasificare JEL: C44, C61, M11, Q01, Q56
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Mergers, Acquisitions and Game Theory Author: Iuliana Cherbeleață, PhD Student13 The Bucharest University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania Abstract This paper provides an overview on Merger and Acquisition concepts from the game theory point of view. The caution, the need for certainty and economic based decisions increase in the context of global economic instability. As an alternative for corporate finance theory and as a support for decision making, game theory provides new approaches to Merger and Acquisition studies. Decision frameworks of major companies understood the effectiveness of methods, theories and models of game theory and began to develop studies and researches, being a tool that they want to hold. The purpose of this paper is to present a series of models used in analyzing transactions through game theory modeling. The companies involved in these transactions are viewed as players of complex games, games that any decision maker can use for a detailed analysis of various market entry opportunities through mergers or acquisitions, for choosing the takeover of a company or determine the price that the players can offer to complete transactions. Keywords: mergers, acquisition, game theory. JEL Classification: C78
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Cloud Computing - the IT response to the economic crisis Author: Professor Adrian COPIE, PhD14 West University of Timisoara, Faculty of Informatics, Timisoara, Romania Abstract The international economic crisis is an issue that has not spared any domain or activity field. Economic theory identifies as the main solution to exit the crisis the development of techniques and technologies that allow the activity optimization. It becomes then natural that the dynamic IT industry was forced to focus its efforts primarily towards the development and implementation of specific applications in order to find economical alternatives for different areas of activity. Nowadays, Cloud Computing related technologies can offer viable alternatives for most areas of activity due to the economic advantages mainly related to IT infrastructure and drastically reducing technical personnel expenses. Equally, Cloud Computing promise reconfiguration opportunities for the IT market itself, Small and Medium Enterprises being able to associate in virtual enterprise and becoming competitive with major service providers in the market. The paper aims to analyze the advantages of Cloud Computing technologies for the Small and Medium Enterprises form the IT industry as well as aspects related to Cloud Governance.
Keywords: IT industry, Cloud computing, SME JEL Classification: L86, L25
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Cloud computing – răspunsul IT la criza economică Autor: Profesor dr. Adrian COPIE Rezumat Criza economica internationala reprezinta un fenomen care nu a ocolit niciun domeniu de activitate. Teoria economica identifica ca principala solutie a iesirii din criza dezvoltarea unor tehnici si tehnologii care sa permita optimizari ale activitatii. Devine astfel natural ca dinamicul domeniu IT a fost fortat sa-si orienteze eforturile primordial in directia dezvoltarii si implementarii unor aplicatii specifice fiecarui domeniu, in scopul de a gasi alternative economice pentru diferite arii de activitate. Tehnologiile legate de Cloud Computing pot oferi in acest moment solutii viabile pentru majoritatea domeniilor de activitate datorita avantajelor economice legate in principal de infrastructura IT precum si de reducerea drastica a cheltuielilor cu personalul tehnic. In aceeasi masura, tehnologiile Cloud Computing determina oportunitati de reconfigurare pentru insasi piata IT, firmele mici si mijlocii putind sa se asocieze in intreprinderi virtuale, devenind astfel competitive in raport cu marii furnizori de servicii de pe piata. Lucrarea isi propune sa analizeze beneficii ale tehnologiilor Cloud Computing pentru firmele mici si mijlocii din industria IT in contextul crizei economice mondiale precum si aspecte referitoare la guvernanta in Cloud. Cuvinte cheie: Indistrie IT, cloud computing, întreprinderi mici şii mijlocii Clasificare JEL: L86, L25
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The algorithm of the tangent hiperbola for one dimensional optimization numerical results Authors: Radu SERBAN PhD., Iulian MIRCEA, PhD15, PhD.Mihaela COVRIG PhD16, The Spiru Haret University, Bucharest, Romania The Bucharest University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania The Bucharest University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania Abstract
The paper presents a new one-dimensional optimization algorithm. The algorithm is based on the tangent hiperbola method, method for solving a large class of equations without divergence points.Numerical results are given.
Keywords: nonlinear optimization, penalty functions method, multidimensional optimization, one-dimensional optimization. JEL Classification: C020
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Algoritm al hiperbolei tangente pentru optimizare unidimensionala Autori: Conf. dr. Radu SERBAN, Lect. Dr. Iulian MIRCEA, Lect. Dr. Mihaela COVRIG, Rezumat
In lucrare este prezentat un nou algoritm de optimizare unidimensionala.Algoritmul se bazeaza pe metoda hiperbolei tangente pentru rezolvzrea unei largi clase de ecuatii fara puncte de divergenta.Sunt prezentate rezultate numerice. Cuvinte cheie: optimizare neliniara, metoda functiilor de penalizare, optimizare multidimensionala, optimizare unidimensionala. Classificare JEL: C020
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Hesitations of the Romanian «flexicurity». A legal approach Author: Professor Raluca DIMITRIU PhD.17 The Bucharest University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania Abstract Even the most protectionist European legislations seem to give up the traditional policies and, under the impact of the economic crisis, and of the new legal theories in the field, they tend to adopt solutions that favour the flexibilization of the labour relations. The changes made in 2011 in the Romanian Labour Code brought about a new paradigm of the force relations between employers and employees, and collectively, between the entrepreneurs’ associations and the unions. Triggered by the modification of the Law of Social Dialogue, the changes made in the Labour Code aimed at the flexibilization of the labour market and at simplified agreement-related procedures. This led to simplified procedures to hire and dismiss, to more non-standard employment and to an obviously diminished power of the unions. Like other East and Central European countries, Romania has attempted a practical implementation of the flexicurity theory, which has been more theoretical so far. What are the chances of this undertaking? One year after the implementation of the changes, the effects are already visible. This paper presents the concrete consequences on the labour market of each of the recent changes in the labour legislation in order to analyse whether flexicurity, in its original understanding, has found its place among the Romanian social policies, or whether this undertaking has been rather a form without contents. Keywords: Labour Code, flexicurity, Fixed term contracts JEL Classification: J23, J88
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Ezitările «flexicurităţii» româneşti. O abordare juridică Autor: Profesor dr. Raluca DIMITRIU Rezumat Chiar şi cele mai protecţioniste legislaţii europene ale muncii par a renunţa la politicile tradiţionale, îndreptându-se – sub impactul crizei economice, dar şi al noilor teorii juridice în materie – către soluţii favorabile flexibilizării raporturilor de muncă. Şi în România, modificarea Codului muncii, intervenită în 2011, a adus cu sine o schimbare de paradigmă în înţelegerea raportului de forţe angajator – salariat, ca şi, în plan colectiv, al celui dintre patronate şi sindicat. Pandant al modificării Legii dialogului social, modificarea Codului muncii a avut ca obiectiv declarat flexibilizarea pieţei muncii şi simplificarea procedurilor contractuale. Aceasta a condus la o anume simplificare a modalităţilor de angajare şi concediere, la multiplicarea modalităţilor non-standard de angajare şi la o diminuare vizibilă a puterii sindicatelor. Alături de alte ţări est şi central europene, România a căutat astfel o transpunere practică a teoriei flexicurităţii, până acum avansată mai mult în plan conceptual. Care sunt însă şansele unui atare demers? La un an de la implementarea modificărilor, acesta îşi relevă deja efectele. Lucrarea propusă urmăreşte consecinţele concrete, pe piaţa muncii, a fiecăreia dintre recentele modificări ale legislaţiei muncii cu scopul de a răspunde la întrebarea dacă flexicuritatea, în înţelesul său originar, şi-a găsit într-adevăr loc în peisajul politicilor sociale româneşti, sau dacă demersul ar putea avea caracterul unei forme fără fond. Cuvinte cheie: codul muncii, flexicuritate, contracte la termen Clasificare JEL: J23, J88
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Consumer behavior characterization using cluster analysis Author: Alina HALAUCA (UDREA) PhD Student18, Crişan ALBU, PhD19. The Bucharest University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania Abstract Based on Romanians’ banking sector negative profitability (-0.1% at June 2012, according to monthly NBR report) and on an estimation of a difficult macroeconomic environment (reducing the economic growing rate for Romania for 2012), banks are cautious in managing costs. So, developing communication programs based on the results of cluster analysis applied on bank’s clients date base may reduce marketing activity costs. Filtering consumer groups witch best fit to banks’ strategy by applying hierarchical and non hierarchical cluster analysis methods determined, on our study, reduction of costs and of period of time implied to create targeted consumer profile and an increase of the respond rate in comparison to standard institution procedure. Keywords: cluster analysis, consumer behavior JEL Classification: C23, D11
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Utilizarea analizei cluster în caracterizarea comportamentului consumatorului Autori: Doctorand Alina HALAUCA (UDREA), Profesor dr. Crişan ALBU Rezumat În contextul unei profitabilităţi negative la nivelul sectorului bancar românesc (-0,1% la iunie 2012, conform buletinului lunar publicat de către BNR) şi a menţinerii estimărilor privind conjuctura macroeconomică dificilă (revizuirea ţintei de creştere economică a României pentru 2012, în scădere), băncile rămân precaute în gestionarea costurilor. Astfel, dezvoltarea de programe de comunicare pornind de la rezultatele aplicării unei analize cluster pe baza de clienţi a instituţiei poate duce la o diminuare a costurilor activităţii de marketing. Filtrarea grupurilor de consumatori care să corespundă cât mai bine strategiei băncii prin aplicarea atât a metodelor ierarhice cât şi nonierhice a analizei cluster, au dus, în studiul de caz dezvoltat, la o diminuare a cheltuielilor și a perioadelor de timp necesare dezvoltării profilului targetat şi la o creştere a ratei de răspuns comparativ cu aplicarea procedurii standard a instituţiei. Cuvinte cheie: analiza cluster, comportamentul consumatorului Classificare JEL: C23, D11
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Monetary policies role in overcoming the financial crisis Authors: Professor Catalin HUIDUMAC, PhD.20, Alexandru Catalin POPA, PhD. Student21 The Bucharest University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania Abstract The current financial crisis has changed a lot of what we thought we knew about how should an adequate monetary policy be like. This article aims to present a brief analysis of the response of world's major central banks to the crisis, both from a short term perspective, related to the financial system stability and from a somewhat longer perspective related to the effects on prices stability and the confidence in the future actions of these institutions. Keywords: central bank, monetary policy, financial crisis, financial stability, prices stability
JEL Classification: E02, E52, E58
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Rolul politicilor monetare în depăşirea crizei financiare Autori: Prof.. Dr. Catalin HUIDUMAC, Drd. Alexandru Catalin POPA Rezumat Actuala criză financiară a schimbat multe din ceea ce credeam că ştim despre cum ar trebui să fie o politică monetară adecvată. Articolul îşi propune să prezinte o scurtă analiza a reacţiei celor mai importante bănci centrale din lume la această criză, atât dintr-o perspectivă pe termen scurt, legată de stabilitatea sistemului financiar, cât şi dintr-o perspectivă pe un termen lung, legată de stabilitatea preţurilor şi de efectele asupra încrederii în acţiunile acestor instituţii. Cuvinte cheie: bancă centrală, politică monetară, criză financiară, stabilitate financiară, stabilitatea preţurilor
Classificare JEL: E02, E52, E58
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Structural approach to financial instability Author: Cristian IONESCU, PhD. Student22 The Bucharest University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania Abstract The paper analyzes the complex dynamics of a sophisticated monetary economy and the role of financial instability. Thus, instability is specified in terms of structural instability, rather than in terms of ordinary dynamic instability. This different view of the instability represents a new approach to the analysis of the dynamic behavior of the economic system and of the structural changes. Qualitative changes in economic behavior economic system are not considered as purely exogenous, but endogenous. Interaction between current financial constraints and inter-temporal financial constraints of the economic units is related to irregular fluctuations at micro and macro level. Beyond certain instability thresholds, qualitative characteristics of the dynamic behavior changes radically in such a way as to produce irregular cyclical fluctuations. The interaction between these microeconomic fluctuations is sufficient to produce macroeconomic cyclical fluctuations. Through qualitative dynamic analysis and numerical simulations, we can study the interaction between financial fragility, modeled in terms of structural instability, and unstable dynamic financial fluctuations. Keywords: financial instability, structural instability, economic fluctuations, economic shocks, monetary economy JEL Classification: D12, D14, E21, E32
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Abordarea structurală a instabilităţii financiare Autor: Drd. Ionescu Cristian Rezumat Lucrarea analizează dinamica complexă a unei economii monetare sofisticate şi rolul instabilităţii financiare. Astfel, instabilitatea este specificată în termeni de instabilitate structurală, mai degrabă decât în termenii obişnuiţi de instabilitate dinamică. Această viziune diferită a instabilităţii reprezintă o altă abordare a analizei comportamentului dinamic al sistemului economic şi a schimbărilor structurale. Schimbările calitative în comportamentul economic al sistemului economic nu sunt considerate ca fiind pur exogene, ci endogene. Interacţiunea dintre constrângerile financiare curente şi intertemporale ale unităţilor economice are legătură cu fluctuaţiile neregulate la nivel microeconomic şi la nivel macroeconomic. Dincolo de anumite praguri ale instabiliăţii, caracteristicile calitative ale comportamentului dinamic se schimbă radical într-un astfel de mod încât se produc fluctuaţii ciclice neregulate. Interacţiunea dintre aceste fluctuaţii microeconomice este suficientă pentru a produce fluctuaţii ciclice macroeconomice. Prin intermediul analizei dinamice calitative şi a simulărilor numerice, se poate studia interacţiunea dintre fragilitatea financiară, modelată în termeni de instabilitate structurală, şi fluctuaţiile financiare dinamice instabile. Cuvinte cheie: instabilitate financiară, instabilitate structurală, fluctuaţii economice, şocuri economice, economie monetară Clasificare JEL: D12, D14, E21, E32
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The ruin probabilities at discrete-time insurance models Authors: Iulian MIRCEA, PhD23, Mihaela COVRIG PhD24, Radu SERBAN, PhD. The Bucharest University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania Abstract
An important issue in risk theory is to study the ruin probability of an insurance company when the management has the possibility of investing in the financial market. In the classical risk models, the premium rate is a fixed constant that satisfies a positive security loading condition. The assumption that the premium rate keeps constant is very restrictive in practice. Recently, several new risk models have been proposed in the literature, in which the premium income of an insurer is uncertain and depends on some random components in the surplus of an insurer. Closed form expressions for ruin probability are available only in few cases, therefore actuaries search the best approximations. In this paper, we consider risk models with dependence between the premium rate, the claim size and the income from investing of the surplus. We focus on discrete-time models and we evaluate the ruin probabilities using convolutions and independent and identical distributed claims over time. Also, we consider corrected diffusion approximation for the maximum of a random walk. We give a numerical illustration and graphic of ruin probabilities on some risk models.
Keywords: surplus process, ruin probability, corrected difusion approximation, random walk, perturbed risk model. JEL Classification: C020, G220, G320
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Probabilităţile de ruinare în asigurări cu timp discret Autori: Lect. Dr. Iulian MIRCEA, Asist. Dr. Mihaela COVRIG, Prof. dr. Radu SERBAN Rezumat O chestiune importantă în teoria riscului este studierea probabilităţii de ruinare a unei companii de asigurare atunci când managementul companiei are posibilitatea să investească surplusul. În modelele clasice de risc, rata primei este constantă şi satisface o condiţie de încărcare de siguranţă. Ipoteza că rata primei rămâne constantă este foarte restrictivă în practică. Recent, în literatură, au fost propuse câteva noi modele de risk, în care venitul din prime al asigurătorului este incert şi depinde de nişte componente aleatoare din surplusul asigurătorului. În puţine cazuri există expresii pentru probabilitatea de ruinare, de aceea actuarii caută cele mai bune aproximări ale ei. În această lucrare, noi considerăm modele de risc având dependenţă între rata primei, mărimea cererii şi venitul din investirea surplusului. Noi ne axăm pe modele cu timp discret şi evaluăm probabilităţile de ruinare utilizând convoluţiile şi cererile independente şi identic distribuite în timp. De asemenea, considerăm aproximarea difuzie corectată pentru modelul mersului aleatoriu. Pentru câteva modele de risc dăm rezultate numerice şi grafice. Cuvinte cheie: procesul surplusului, probabilitatea de ruinare, aproximarea difuzie corectată, mers aleator, model de risc perturbat. Classificare JEL: C020, G220, G320
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On Optimal Trainings and Employee Preferences Authors: Assistant Ioana MANAFI, PhD.25, Professor Assistant Daniela MARINESCU, PhDt26 Romanian Academy, Iasi Branch, Iasi Romania The Bucharest University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania Abstract A common practice to increase the productivity of a firm is to offer training programs, such as seminars, workshops and technical skills development opportunities. We will consider a company/department where the employer offers specific training programs to increase the productivity of the employees’ effort or general trainings to encourage the employees to do new tasks. In this context we will analyze which employees should attend trainings and what kind of the trainings. The aim of the paper is to determine the optimal solution for the employer in order to minimize the cost function. Keywords: training, preferences, cost function JEL Classification: D01, D11
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Preferinţele angajaţilor şi determinarea soluţiei optimale în cazul cursurilor de formare profesională
Autori: Asistent dr. Ioana MANAFI, , Conferentiar dr. Daniela MARINESCU
Pentru a creşte productivitatea unei firme, o practică des întâlnită este de a oferi programe de training, cum ar fi seminarii, workshop-uri şi oportunităţi de dezvoltare a abilităţilor tehnice. În lucrare vom considera un departament/ companie pentru care angajaţii trebuie să urmeze cursuri de formare profesională specifice firmei pentru a putea creşte productivitatea sau cursuri de formare profesională generale pentru realizarea de noi activităţi. În acest context vom determina ce angajaţi trebuie să urmeze cursuri de formare profesională, precum şi tipul acestora. Scopul lucrării este de a determina soluţia optimă, astfel încât funcţia de cost să fie minimă.
Cuvinte cheie: cursuri de formare profesională, preferinţe, funcţie de cost. Clasificare JEL D01, D11
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The Influence of Private Information on the Optimal Insurance Contracts Authors: Daniela Elena MARINESCU PhD.27 , Ioana MANAFI PhD.28, Dumitru MARIN, PhD. The Bucharest University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania Abstract It is well known in the literature that the insurance markets are strongly affected by private information of the potential insurees. In order to solve the informational problem, either adverse selection (the insurer does not know how risky the Agent is) or moral hazard (the need to induce the optimal level of care safety from the Agent), the insurance companies must design optimal incentive insurance contracts. In the paper we use a standard adverse selection model with the Agent’s reservation utility being type dependent. We also are in the presence of a model with common values, the Principal’s utility function being directly affected by the Agent’s type. The main goal of the paper is to derive the optimal incentive insurance contracts in the case where the Agents are grouped into two risk classes. We show that the first best solution can not be implemented in the presence of asymmetric information and in the final part we present and comment the characteristics of the new optimal solution in asymmetric information. Keywords: adverse selection, insurance contracts, second best solution JEL Classification: L21, D82
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Influenţa informaţiei private asupra contractelor optime de asigurări Autori: Conf. Dr. Daniela Elena MARINESCU, Asist. Dr. Ioana MANAFI, Profesor dr. Dumitru MARIN Rezumat
Este bine cunoscut faptul că pieţele de asigurări sunt foarte vulnerabile faţă de informaţia privată a potenţialilor asiguraţi. Pentru a rezolva problema informaţională, fie de selecţie adversă (asiguratorul nu cunoaşte gradul de risc al asiguratului) sau de hazard moral (nevoia de a induce nivelul optimal de siguranţă pentru agent) societăţile de asigurări trebuie să conceapă contracte de asigurare incitative.
În lucrare utilizăm un model de selecţie adversă standard în care nivelul de utilitate rezervată a agentului este dependent de tipul acestuia. Suntem în prezenţa unui model cu valori comune, funcţia obiectiv a principalului fiind direct afectată de tipul agentului. Scopul principal al lucrării este determinarea contractelor de asigurări optimale în cazul în care agenţii sunt grupaţi în două clase de risc. Vom arăta că soluţia de rang I nu poate fi implementată în prezenţa informaţiei asimetrice, iar, în final, vom prezenta şi comenta caracteristicile soluţiei de rang II. Cuvinte cheie: selecţia adversă, contracte de asigurare, soluţie de rang II Clasificare JEL: L21, D82
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Using Computer for Enterprise Risk Management Authors: Professor Nora CHIRITA PhD29, Ioana Alexandra BRADEA PhD. Student30 The Bucharest University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania Abstract The main objective of the paper is to discuss how computer can be used for managing the risks of an enterprise. In introduction is presented the actual stage of the techniques which are used to monitor, measure and mitigate risks. In Section 1 and 2 it is described the management system of an enterprise and its links with computer and software products. In Section 3, will be presented the most common methodologies which are used for analysis and assessment of risks and Section 4 presents how to build a dashboard using Excel. This paper will end with some conclusions regarding the topic. Keywords: Risk, dashboard, key risk indicators, management JEL Classification: Z00
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Utilizarea calculatorului pentru managementul riscului la nivel de întreprindere Autori: Profesor dr. Nora CHIRITA, Drd. Ioana Alexandra BRADEA Rezumat Obiectivul principal al lucrării este de a discuta modul în care computerul poate fi folosit pentru gestionarea riscurilor unei întreprinderi. În introducere este prezentat stadiul actual al tehnicilor care sunt folosite pentru a monitoriza, măsura şi reduce riscurile. În secţiunile 1 şi 2 sunt descrise sistemul de management al unei întreprinderi şi legăturile sale cu diferite produse software. În secţiunea 3, vor fi prezentate metodologiile cele mai comune, care sunt utilizate pentru analiza şi evaluarea riscurilor, iar Secţiunea 4 prezintă modalitatea de construire a unui tablou de bord cu ajutorul programului Excel. Această lucrare se va încheia cu câteva concluzii. Cuvinte cheie: risc, dashboard, indicatori cheie de risc, management Classificare JEL: Z00
38
Diagnosis and estimation of monetary policy shocks in the context of interest rate channel operation in the Republic of Moldova Authors: Professor Ion PARTACHI, PhD31 , Olga PANIS, PhD. Student Academy of Economic Studies, Chisinau, Moldova Abstract The present work is proposed to analyze some transmission effects of monetary policy shocks in the context of interest rate channel operation and the variables in the Taylor’s rule, which are main operational attributes of modern inflation targeting. The analysis and the main conclusions were made based on the implementation of the Granger tests, the regression analysis, VAR models, cointegration and VECM.
Keywords: inflation targeting, aggregate demand, monetary transmission, interest rate channel, GDP potential, GAP-GDP, GAP-INFLATION, lag, autoregression, impulse-response, cointegration, vector error correction. JEL Classification: E31, P24, C32
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Modelling the impact of investment in reserach-development-inovation, a way to relaunch the Romanian economy Authors: Daniel Traian PELE, PhD., Miruna MAZURENCU MARINESCU, PhD, 32 Cristian PĂUN , PhD. The Bucharest University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania Abstract
On the long term, research, development and innovation (R&D) is an important driver of economic growth. In this paper, firstly, we estimate economic growth elasticity in relation to private sector R&D intensity, defined as the ratio of total spending on R&D and GDP. R & D expenditures on GDP impact was further evaluated by using various particular forms of the general Cobb-Douglas model. Following heuristic analysis, the best model showed that the effect of R&D expenditures financed from private funds and public funds occurs after one year, and for foreign-funded R&D activities, the effect is instantaneous. Subsequently, the estimation of the impact of R&D spending on economic growth was achieved in two steps by using the stock of R&D. It turned out that the elasticity of the R&D stock differs depending on the source of funding of R & D, higher elasticities were recorded for public funds and for the funds from abroad.
Keywords: Investments, R&D, model, economic growth JEL Classification: D92, E22
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Modelarea impactului investiţiei în cercetare- dezvoltare- inovare, o cale de relansare a economiei româneşti Autori: Daniel Traian PELE, Miruna MAZURENCU MARINESCU,Cristian PĂUN Rezumat Cercetarea- dezvoltarea- inovarea (CDI) se constituie într-un motor important al creşterii economice pe termen lung. În lucrarea de față se estimează mai întâi elasticitatea creșterii economice în relație cu intensitatea CDI în sectorul privat, definită ca raport între cheltuieli totale private de CDI și PIB. Impactul cheltuielilor CDI asupra PIB a fost evaluat folosind diferite forme particulare ale modelului general Cobb-Douglas. În urma unor analize euristice, cel mai bun model a rezultat cel în care efectul cheltuielilor de CDI finanțate din fonduri private și fonduri publice se manifestă după un an, iar pentru activitățile CDI finanțate din străinătate, efectul este instantaneu. Ulterior, estimarea impactului cheltuielilor CDI asupra creșterii economice s-a realizat în două faze prin utilizarea indicatorului stoc de CDI. A reieșit că elasticitatea stocului de CDI diferă în funcție de sursa de finanțare a activităților de CDI, elasticități mai mari înregistrându-se pentru fondurile publice și cele din străinătate. Cuvinte cheie: investiţii, cercetare-dezvoltare, model, creştere economică Classificare JEL: D92, E22
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Analysis of the Periods of Growth / Decrease of FTSE Index and the Estimation of Value at Risk Author: Marcel PETRE33, PhD Student The Bucharest University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania Abstract In this paper I present the results of the analysis of the evolution of the FTSE index regarding the successive periods of growth and decrease of the index price and I suggest a method for the estimation of value at risk (VaR) based on the possible evolutions of the index price. The scope of the analysis of the evolution of the FTSE index was to determine the probability of recording a period of growth or decrease that lasts some days and also to find out the transition probabilities of going from one period of price increase to the next one of price decrease. Also, I present a method for the estimation of VaR for a period of 10 days using daily data generated using two theoretical distributions, one for the positive returns, and the other for negative returns. These data are combined using assumptions regarding the expected evolution of the index price during the next 10 days. The VaR value computed using the proposed method is then compared with the VaR value for a period of 10 days determined using the square root of the 10 days period and the one day value of VaR Keywords: Value at Risk (VaR), FTSE index, transition probabilities, probability density function JEL Classification: D53
42
Analize ale perioadelor de crestere/descrestere a indicelui FTSE si estimari ale VAR Autori: Drd. Marcel PETRE Rezumat În acest studiu prezint rezultatele analizei evoluţiei preţului indexului bursier FTSE privind perioadele succesive de creştere şi scădere a preţului indexului şi descriu o metodă de estimare a valorii riscate (VaR) bazată pe evoluţiile posibile ale preţului indexului bursier considerat. Scopul analizei evoluţiei indexului FTSE a constat în determinarea probabilităţilor de înregistrare a diferitelor perioade de creştere, respectiv scădere şi în evidenţierea probabilităţilor istorice de tranziţie de la o perioadă de creştere cu o anumită durată la următoarea perioadă cu o evoluţie opusă, de scădere. De asemenea, în lucrare prezint o metodă de estimare a VaR pentru o perioadă de 10 zile folosind date generate prin folosirea a două distribuţii teoretice, una pentru rentabilităţile pozitive şi cealaltă pentru rentabilităţile negative. Aceste date sunt combinate apelând la evoluţia aşteptată a preţului indexului în următoarea perioadă de 10 zile. Valoarea VaR estimată folsoind metoda descrisă este apoi comparată cu valoarea VaR determinată pentru o perioadă de 10 zile folosind rădăcina pătrată a perioadei de 10 zile şi VaR la o zi. Cuvinte cheie: valoarea riscată, indexul FTSE, probabilităţi de tranziţie, fucţii densitate de probabilitate Classificare JEL: D53
43
Analysis on adjustment of the Romanian macroeconomic system using multidimensional statistical analysis techniques Authors: Professor Stelian STANCU PhD.34 Alexandra Maria CONSTANTIN, Oana Madalina PREDESCU (POPESCU) , Violeta Steliana STANCU (POPA) The Bucharest University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania Abstract Economic system, cybernetic system, has the ability to adapt to environmental changes in a rigid or flexible mode. Because the macroeconomic system is dominated by a high degree of uncertainty is necessary the approach of chaotic system and analyze the degree of adjustment/self-regulation. This paper will treat several specific objectives, namely: to present the cybernetic system, chaos theory and chaotic macroeconomic models, rendering the current economic situation, presenting statistical techniques used in the analysis, statistical analysis of the level of adjustment of the Romanian economic system, and last but not least, the presentation of the study conclusions.
Keywords: macroeconomic model, chaotic systems, multidimensional analysis JEL Classification: E60, C32
44
Analiza reglării la nivelul sistemului macroeconomic românesc utilizând tehnici de analiza statistică multidimensională Autori: Prof. Dr. Stelian STANCU, Alexandra Maria CONSTANTIN, Oana Madalina PREDESCU (POPESCU) , Violeta Steliana STANCU (POPA) Rezumat Sistemul economic, sistem cibernetic, are proprietatea de a se adapta la schimbările din mediu într-un mod rigid sau flexibil. Întrucât sistemul la nivel micro şi macro este dominat de un grad mare de incertitudine este necesară abordarea haotică a sistemului şi analizarea gradului de reglare/autoreglare. Obiectivele specifice ale acestei lucrări sunt: abordarea teoretică a sistemului cibernetic economic, a teoriei haosului şi a modelelor haotice la nivel macroeconomic; redarea situaţie economice din prezent; expunerea tehnicilor statistice şi metodoligiei utilizate în analiză; analiza statistică a nivelui de reglarea a sistemului economic românesc, precum şi elaborarea concluziilor. Cuvinte cheie: model macroeconomic, sisteme haotice, analiza multidimensionala
Classificare JEL: E60, C32
45
Sovereign debt crisis in Romania Authors: Professor Stelian STANCU PhD.35 Alexandra Maria CONSTANTIN, Oana Madalina PREDESCU (POPESCU) , Violeta Steliana STANCU (POPA) The Bucharest University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania Abstract Sovereign debt crisis, one of the actual financial crisis components, is a major problem which should be analyzed because it is one of those problems which irrevocably influences macroeconomic evolution. This paper will treat several specific objectives, namely: to present the Romania’s real economic situation and the general theoretical aspects of the sovereign debt crisis, presenting the sovereign debt crisis in Romania, rendering the empirical results on the impacts of sovereign debt crisis on the Romania’s economy in the future, and last but not least, the presentation of the study conclusions. Keywords: Sovereign debt, debt crisis, forecast
JEL Classification: E60, C32
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Criza datoriilor suverane la nivelul Romaniei Autori: Prof. Dr. Stelian STANCU, Alexandra Maria CONSTANTIN, Oana Madalina PREDESCU (POPESCU) , Violeta Steliana STANCU (POPA) Rezumat Criza datoriilor suverane, una din componentele crizei financiar actuale, costituie o problema ce trebuie studiată intrucat aceasta este una dintre cele care influenteaza in mod irevocabil demersul la nivel macroeconomic. In aceasta lucrare se va urmari atingerea urmatoarelor obiective specifice: prezentarea contextului economic actual al Romaniei, prezentarea aspectelor teoretice ale crizei datoriilor suverane, prezentarea crizei datoriilor suverane la nivelul Romaniei, redarea rezultatelor empirice privind impactul crizei datoriilor suverane asupra economiei romanesti in viitor, si nu in ultimul rand, expunerea concluziilor pe baza studiului realizat. Cuvinte cheie: datorii suverane, criza datoriilor, prognoze
Classificare JEL: E60, C32
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Exchange Rates Forecasting with BVAR Models36
Authors: Professor Gheorghe Ruxanda, PhD37. , Cristina - Alexandra Toader, PhD Student38 The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania University of Sheffield, United Kingdom Abstract This paper provides an comparative predictive analysis between the models based on the fundamentals with a relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals variable in time by using Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods , like VAR’s , Factor Augmented VAR’s and time-varying parameter methods for the models considered TVP-VAR’s , TVP-FAVAR’s being put in evidence the process of Bayesian Inference . The analysis is realized for GBP/USD exchange rate and the prediction realized for h step ahead direct and iterated forecasting and then compared the results between the considered methods . Keywords exchange rate forecasting , fundamentals , VAR’s JEL Classification: E40, E47
36 project DoEsEc , financed contract POSDRU/88/1.5/S/55287 37 [email protected] 38 [email protected]
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Forecasting Exchange Rates with TVP-VAR’S Authors: Professor Gheorghe Ruxanda, PhD39. , Cristina - Alexandra Toader, PhD Student40 The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania University of Sheffield, United Kingdom
Abstract This paper provides an analysis of the Bayesian TVP-VAR models with the intention to prove the necessity of their use in the exchange rate evaluation and prediction . The considered Bayesian TVP-VAR have been the Homoskedastic and Heteroskedastic TVP-VARs by using the Carter-Kohn Algorithm , Durbin-Koopman Algorithm or Primiceri (2005) . For the clarity of this demonstration we used Bayesian VAR Models as well being put in evidence the process of Bayesian Inference in the Impulse Response functions. The analysis is realized for GBP/USD exchange rate and the Impulse Response Function put in evidence, then compared the results between the considered methods. Keywords: Bayesian TVP-VAR models, exchange rates, impulse response funtion JEL Classification: E40, E47
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Experiments with an evolutionary algorithm for solving the single machine scheduling problem Authors: Professor Adina UTA PhD.41, Lecturer Iulian INTORSUREANU PhD.42 The Bucharest University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania Abstract The paper presents the results obtained following the experiments made with an evolutionary algorithm for solving the single machine scheduling problem. Keywords: Experiment, single machine scheduling, evolutionary algorithm. JEL classification: C61
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Experimente cu un algoritm evolutiv pentru rezolvarea unei probleme de programare pe o singura masina Autori: Profesor dr. Adina UTA, Lect. Dr. Iulian INTORSUREANU Rezumat În acest articol sunt prezentate rezultatele obţinute în urma unor experimente efectuate cu ajutorul unui algoritm evolutiv pentru rezolvarea unei probleme de programare a producţiei pe o singura maşină. Cuvinte cheie: experiment, programare a producţiei pe o maşină, algoritm evolutiv Clasificare JEL: C61
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Merger reviews and post-merger evaluation with DEA
Author: Lecturer Constantin BELU43 The Bucharest University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania Abstract: Merger review is a core issue for competition authorities (CA). In this paper I employ linear programming methods to evaluate potential efficiency gains following a merger, against the background of market-side effects, which are usually relevant for CA in merger assessment. I argue that where there can be no efficiency gain what-so-ever, there is little room for positive effects for market competition and consumers, respectively. Furthermore, I show how DEA can be used as a post-merger evaluation tool, in the presence of information regarding product and factor prices. Keywords: merger review, DEA, competition, market-side effects JEL Classification:: C61, D24, D40, K21
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A comparative analysis of remittance behaviour between East European and North African migrants Authors: Monica ROMAN, PhD, Bogdan ILEANU, PhD Elena PRADA, PhD Student The Bucharest University of Economics Abstract The labour migration in Europe is a phenomenon with multiple effects, both positive and negative. Money sent by emigrants to their families is increasing their quality of life and has positive effects on the family relations; therefore it can be identified an increasing interest in the literature in studying such aspects. The purpose of the paper is to conduct a comparative analysis of the migrants’ propensity to sending money to the origin country. The study is based on data coming from the National Immigrant Survey of Spain (in Spanish: Encuesta Nacional de Inmigrantes – 2007). A total of 15,475 interviews were carried out. Moroccans, Romanians, and Ecuadorians represent 30% of the total number of immigrants resident in Spain. We employ a binary logistic regression model in order to identify the impact of socio-demographical factors on the probability of sending money abroad from Spain. Our aim is to identify cultural discrepancies in remittances sending, according to origin of migrants. We are mainly focusing on two large groups of respondents, which are North African and South Eastern Europe migrants. The variables employed are age of respondent, education, Intention to return in the country of origin, The period spent in Spain, gender of respondent, and the relation with the country of origin defined by the frequency of visits in the country. We identified similar patterns and also significant differences among the two groups. Keywords: migration, logistic regression, socio-demographical factors JEL codes: F22, I31, R23
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Methods to assess the linkage between real economy and financial sector44 Authors: Constantin Catalin DUMITRESCU PhD. Student45, Bogdan CHIRIACESCU PhD. Student, Mariana Olivia DESPA (DUMITRESCU) PhD. Student, Ana-Maria BANCU PhD. Student The Bucharest University of Economics, National Bank of Romania Abstract The crisis of 2007-2012 has shown the size and importance of interactions of the banking and financial structures with macroeconomic conditions and monetary and fiscal policies (monetary policy in particular), in ways that generate significant instability. A major source of risk is the banking sector, which relies heavily on mechanisms to transfer credit risk, which can weaken the commitment to monitor customers. Our recent experience with the effects of the economic crisis on banks' loan portfolios in the Romanian economy in 2007-2012, provides an opportunity to investigate the relationship between macroeconomic development and the quality of the loan portfolio. Credit risk is one of the most important areas of risk management. It plays an important role especially for banks that are trying to develop their own credit risk models in order to improve the quality of bank portfolios. Financial instability and stress may impact on economic activity through various channels. If bank capital is weak, banks may become more reluctant to provide capital to the real sector. Development and structure of the financial system caused the degree of interconnection between the real and financial sectors of the economy. It is known also that for Romania, but also in other emerging European countries, the accelerated growth was distorted by the explosion of credit. Recent years towards economic growth, households have increasingly engaged larger loans, though these loans accelerated economic growth, led to a series of macroeconomic imbalances: the current account deficit, low savings etc. Given the global turmoil, freezing the credit activity affected the economic growth engine, bringing together with negative shocks on demand, a severe recession. Keywords: macroeconomic stability, business cycle, financial risks JEL Classification: E44, E37, G01
44 Acknowledgments: This work was co-financed from the European Social Fund through Sectoral Operational Programme Human Resources Development 2007-2013; project number POSDRU/107/1.5/S/77213 „Ph.D. for a career in interdisciplinary economic research at the European standards” 45 [email protected]
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Metode de analiza a legaturilor dintre economia reala si sectorul financiar Autori : Drd. Constantin Catalin DUMITRESCU, Drd. Bogdan CHIRIACESCU , Drd. Mariana Olivia DESPA (DUMITRESCU), Drd. Ana-Maria BANCU Rezumat Criza din 2007-2012 a arătat că structurile bancare şi financiare pot uneori interacţiona cu condiţiile macroeconomice şi cu politicile fiscale sau monetare (cu politica monetară, în special), în moduri care generează instabilitate semnificativă. O sursa majora de risc se află sectorul bancar, care se bazează foarte mult pe mecanisme de transfer a riscului de credit, care poate slăbi angajamentul de a monitoriza clienţii. Macro-modelele existente nu sunt bine echipate pentru a capta aceste fenomene. Experienţa noastră recentă, cu efectele crizei economice asupra portofoliilor de credite ale băncilor în economia românească în 2007-2012, oferă o oportunitate de a investiga legătura dintre dezvoltarea macroeconomică şi calitatea portofoliului de credite. Riscul de credit este una dintre cele mai importante zone de gestionare a riscurilor. Acesta joacă un rol important în special pentru instituţiile bancare, care încearcă să dezvolte propriile modele de risc de credit, în scopul de a creşte calitatea portofoliului băncii. Instabilitatea financiară şi stresul pot avea impact asupra activităţii economice, prin diverse canale. În cazul în care capitalul băncilor este slăbit, băncile pot deveni mai reticente în a furniza capital pentru sectorul real. Dezvoltarea şistructura sistemului financiar au determinat gradul de interconectare între sectorul real şi financiar în economie. Este știut și că în cazul României, dar și al celorlalte țări europene emergente, procesul de creștere economică accelerată a fost denaturat de explozia creditului. Înspre ultimii ani de creștere economică, gospodăriile au angajat credite din ce în ce mai mari care, deși au acceleratcreșterea economică, au condus la o serie de dezechilibre macroeconomice: deficit de cont curent, scăderea economisirii etc. În condițiile declanșării crizei globale, blocarea creditării a gripat motorul creșterii economice, antrenând împreună cu șocurile negative asupra cererii, o recesiune severă. Cuvinte cheie: stabilitate macroeconomica, ciclu de afaceri, riscuri financiare Clasificare JEL: E32
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Credit risk in the corporate sector Authors: Bogdan CHIRIACESCU PhD. Student46, Ana-Maria BANCU PhD. Student47 , Mariana Olivia DESPA (DUMITRESCU PhD. Student)48, Constantin Catalin DUMITRESCU PhD. Student49 The Bucharest University of Economics, National Bank of Romania Abstract The importance of credit risk assessment and monitoring has increased since the recent financial turmoil. This paper presents a toolkit for modeling credit risk of the corporate sector that follows the top-down approach proposed by Wilson (1997). The analysis is conducted by means of seemingly unrelated equations, using default aggregated data at business sector level. The results indicate that default events on bank loans for the corporate sector can be roughly explained by a macroeconomic index that comprises the output gap, indebtedness and exchange rate, and that the corporate sector is financially sensitive to adverse macroeconomic developments. In order to enforce financial stability it is obligatory to correctly evaluate the banking sector’s vulnerabilities as a whole. One method is to observe how resilient the system is to “exceptional but plausible events”, which is known as stress testing the system in abnormal conditions. In order to achieve this type of results, one need to model first the way the system is behaving based on what has happened in the past. The risks are of different nature (credit risks, market risks, liquidity risks, operational risks) and therefore are treated idiosyncratically. Credit risk is the most important of them, as the major source of losses incurred by banks comes from this side. It comes naturally to investigate which are the main drivers of credit risk at a systemic level. The burgeoning literature of the last decade concerning this topic presents strong evidence relating the business cycle and credit risk and the nonlinearities of the relationship. This is an argument to follow a top-down approach in credit risk modeling, relating default events to macro variables, and subsequently to potential losses of the financial sector. By following such a procedure, first round effects of shocks to macroeconomic variables on financial sector are estimated. Trying to capture feedback (second round) effects from the economy and financial markets is at the moment at an incipient stage of research because of the complexities involved. Micro models (bottom-up approach) are the other available alternative, but they have a serious drawback being much more data intensive, with most of these data being confined to confidentiality issues. Keywords: credit risk, corporate sector, models, business cycle JEL Classification: G32, O16
46 [email protected] 47 [email protected]; 48 [email protected]; 49 [email protected]
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Riscul de credit în sectorul corporativ Autori : Drd. Constantin Catalin DUMITRESCU, Drd. Bogdan CHIRIACESCU , Drd. Mariana Olivia DESPA (DUMITRESCU), Drd. Ana-Maria BANCU Rezumat Importanța evaluării și a monitorizării riscului de credit a crescut de la turbulențele financiare recente. Această lucrare prezintă un instrumentar pentru modelarea riscului de credit al sectorului corporatist care urmează abordarea de tip top-down propusă de Wilson (1997). Analiza este realizată prin intermediul unor regresii de tip SUR, folosind datele privind rata creditelor neperformante agregată la nivel de sector de activitate. Rezultatele indică faptul că evenimentele de nerambursare la creditele bancare pentru sectorul corporativ pot fi explicate în mare printr-un indice macroeconomic care cuprinde output gap-ul, gradul de îndatorare și rata de schimb, precum și faptul că sectorul corporativ este sensibil din punct de vedere financiar la evoluțiile macroeconomice nefavorabile. Pentru a asigura menţinerea stabilităţii financiare este obligatoriu a evalua în mod corect vulnerabilităților sectorului bancar per ansamblu. O metodă este de a observa cât de rezistent este sistemul la "evenimente excepționale, dar plauzibile", aceasta fiind cunoscută sub numele de testare la stres a sistemului în condiții adverse. Pentru a realiza acest tip de exerciţiu, se impune a modela mai întâi modul în care se comportă sistemul plecând de la ceea ce s-a întâmplat în trecut. Riscurile sunt de natură diferită (riscul de credit, riscul de piață, riscul de lichiditate, riscurile operaționale) și, prin urmare, trebuie tratate idiosincratic. Riscul de credit este cel mai important dintre ele, acesta fiind sursa majoră de pierderi suferite de către bănci. Prin urmare, este firesc a investiga care sunt principalii factori determinanţi ai riscului de credit la nivel sistemic. Literatura de specialitate din ultimului deceniu cu privire la acest subiect prezintă evidenţe semnificative privind legătura dintre ciclul de afaceri și riscul de credit, precum și neliniaritățile acestei relații. Acesta este un argument pentru a utiliza o abordare de tip top-down în modelarea riscului de credit, stabilind iniţial coordonatele relaţiei dintre evenimentele de nerambursare şi variabilele macroeconomice, și ulterior, cuantificând pierderile potențiale ale sectorului financiar. Printr-o astfel de procedură sunt estimate efectele de runda întâi ale șocurilor macroeconomice asupra sectorului financiar. Încercarea de a surprinde şi efectele de feedback (efectele de runda a doua) dinspre economia reală și piețele financiare este momentan într-un stadiu incipient de cercetare din cauza complexității legăturilor existente. Modelele de tip microeconomic (abordare de tip bottum-up) reprezintă cealaltă alternativă, dar prezintă un dezavantaj serios pentru că necesită prelucrarea unor seturi mari de date, iar disponibilitatea acestora este constrânsă de probleme de confidențialitate. Cuvinte cheie: risc de credit, sector corporatist, modele, ciclu de afaceri Clasificare JEL: G32, O16
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A review of labour supply models Author: Maria Denisa VASILESCU (ANTONIE), PhD Student.50 The Bucharest University of Economics and National Scientific Research Institute for Labour and Social Protection, Bucharest, Romania Abstract Progress in labour supply modelling in the last thirty years or so has been considerable. The theory of labour supply has become much more sophisticated. Simple static models of the budget constraint and the hours decision have been augmented with new developments such as intertemporal optimisation or explicit treatment of the participation decision as distinct from the hours decision. This article presents different approaches of labour supply modelling, starting with a basic individual model and continuing with collective models, the simple version as well as the one that takes into account the domestic production and participation decision, then a life-cycle labour supply model and a model of labour supply with taxation. Finally, as an extension of the model with taxation, we present an interesting study on the implications of raising the savings rate on labour supply. Keywords: labour supply, unitary model, collective model, life-cycle labour, taxesJEL Classification: J23, C33
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Modele ale ofertei de munca Autor: Drd. Maria Denisa VASILESCU (ANTONIE) Rezumat În ultimii treizeci de ani s-au înregistrat progrese considerabile în ceea ce priveşte modelarea ofertei de forţă de muncă. Teoria ofertei de muncă a devenit mult mai sofisticată. Modelele statice simple, doar cu restricţia bugetară şi cu decizia referitoare la orele de muncă, au fost dezvoltate cu noi abordări, cum ar fi optimizarea intertemporală sau tratarea explicită a deciziei de participare ca diferită de decizia referitoare la orele de muncă. Acest articol prezintă diferite abordări ale modelării ofertei de muncă, începând cu un model individual de bază şi continuând cu modele colective, atât în variantă simplă, cât şi luând în considerare producţia internă şi decizia de participare, apoi un model al ofertei de muncă ce ţine cont de ciclul de viaţă şi un model al ofertei de muncă cu includerea taxelor. În final, ca o extensie a modelului cu taxe, este prezentat un studiu interesant cu privire la implicaţiile creşterii ratei de economisire asupra ofertei de muncă. Cuvinte cheie: oferta de munca, model unitar, model colectiv, ciclu de viata, taxe Clasificare JEL: J23, C33
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Game theory elements used in teaching approach Author: Asist. Mgadalena Lucica TALVAN, PhD. Srudent51, Georgiana-Alice NICHITA PhD Student The Bucharest University, Romania Abstract The study aims to highlight the importance of using strategies belonging to game theory in educational situations data. Considering the dynamic changes in the Romanian education system to optimize its purpose, it is necessary to improve teaching and learning strategies, assessment, enabling better communication between teachers and students. Identify the existence of "game" as a fundamental element of game theory in the sense of defining its main characteristics highlighted by John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern (1943). We can say that the game is defined educational context of an interaction between teacher and pupil, which is achieved by specific rules of doing lessons and extracurricular activities. These rules determine the possible movements of each participant and the corresponding gains for each combination of moves. The teacher and the student will take a series of individual decisions which would allow solving each problem situation and thus maximize gains in relation to other player. The study outlines the importance of interaction between teacher and student, from the perspective of game theory, using specific variables strategies and practices of teaching approach, in a game whose stake is more effective educational act. Keywords: education, game theory, model JEL Classification: I20, C72
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Elemente de teoria jocurilor utilizate în demersul didactic Autor: Asistent drd.. Mgadalena Lucica TALVAN, Drd. Georgiana-Alice NICHITA Rezumat Studiul îşi propune să evidenţieze importanţa utilizării unor strategii aparţinând teoriei jocurilor în situaţii educaţionale date. Luând în considerare transformările dinamice din cadrul sistemului de învăţământ românesc în scopul optimizării finalităţilor acestuia, se impune o îmbunătăţire a strategiilor de predare-învăţare-evaluare, care să permită o mai bună comunicare între profesor şi elev. Identificăm astfel existenţa „jocului” ca element fundamental al teoriei jocurilor, în accepţiunea definirii caracteristicilor sale principale evidenţiate de John von Neumann şi Oskar Morgenstern (1943). Putem afirma că jocul în context educaţional este definit de o interacţiune între profesor şi elev, care se realizează după reguli specifice desfăşurării unei lecţii şi activităţilor extracurriculare. Aceste reguli determină mutările posibile fiecărui participant, cât şi câştigurile corespunzătoare pentru fiecare combinaţie de mutări. Profesorul şi elevul vor adopta o succesiune de decizii individuale care să-i permită fiecăruia rezolvarea situaţiei-problemă şi maximizarea câştigului în raport cu celălalt jucător. Se conturează astfel importanţa studiului privind interacţiunea dintre profesor şi elev, din perspectiva teoriei jocurilor, utilizând variabile specifice strategiilor şi practicilor unui demers didactic, într-un joc a cărui miză este eficientizarea actului educativ. Cuvinte cheie: educatie, teoria jocurilor, model Clasificare JEL: J23, C33
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Savings of the Romanian Households – Recent Aspects in the Context of the World Financial Crisis Authors: Professor Assistant Ileana NICULESCU-ARON, PhD.52, Professor Constanta MIHAESCU , PhDt53 The Bucharest University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania Abstract The chances of economic recovery in the EU depend on the level of internal savings, since markets are dominated by vigilance against public debt and fear of inflation and the level of national savings. Furthermore, because the main sector of a national economy that is saving is the household sector, enactment of financial policies that stimulate savings in this sector is fundamental for the governmental anti-crisis and economic recovery programmes. The analysis of the trends regarding population savings, knowledge about the determinant factors and saving behaviour is of special importance for the economic policy makers. The present paper aims at analysing savings evolution in Romania after 1989, followed by the identification of the main determinants of households’ savings. Keywords: saving rate, saving behaviour, determinants of population savings JEL Classification: D14
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The Use of Panel Data Analysis for Fraud Risk Assessment in Financial Auditing
Authors: Professor Elisabeta, JABA, PhD54., Ioan-Bogdan, ROBU, Ph.D. Student55, Lecturer Christiana Brigitte, BALAN, Ph.D. 56, Mihaela-Alina, ROBU Ph.D. Student57 Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Iasi, Romania,
Abstract The purpose of an audit is to express an opinion by the auditor on the accuracy of the financial statements of the client company. During its engagement, the auditor should also assess the fraud risk and so far as it can distort the information in the financial statements. The practice has shown that depending on its determinants, synthesized in pressures, opportunities and reasoning, there are significant differences in terms of the risk of fraud. Differences can be identified at branch level and occur between firms or at different periods of times and appear between financial years. The study aims to analyze the fraud risk determined by indebtedness, as a pressure factor, according to a series of financial rates of return, using panel data. The study considered a sample of 50 companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange and which have been subject or not to financial fraud in fiscal year 2002. For data analysis we used the statistical software SPSS 19.0 and SAS 9.2. The analysis results indicate significant differences in terms of fraud risk caused by financial leverage, as an indicator of indebtedness. There are identified cross-sectional differences at the level of the companies considered in the sample and cross-time differences at the level of the financial years for the period studied. These differences are explained by the influence of rates of return on the fraud risk, over time and across firms of the sample.
Keywords: financial auditing, fraud risk, panel data analysis, financial ratios JEL Classification: C33, G32, M42
54 [email protected] bogdan. 55 [email protected] 56 [email protected] 57 [email protected]
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Inequality and Economic Growth: Some Theoretical and Empirical Aspects Authors: Professor Ana ANDREI PhD.58, Professor Antonio IMPERATO, PhD The Bucharest University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania Palermo University, Italy Abstract „Excessive concentration of income was one of the factors leading to the global crisis as it was linked to perverse incentives for the top income earners and to high indebtedness in other income groups” (UNCTAD/TDR/2012). The relationship between inequality and the process of econonic development is far from being well clarified. There is yet much disagreement about both the facts and the explanations of income inequality. Kuznets (1955) formulated the “inverted-U” hypothesis according to which inequality increases in the initial levels of development to decrease later on, after a certain point of return. This hypotesis has been the subject of many theoretical and empirical contributions. In this paper we present an theoretical approach to the growth-inequality relationship, including the most common empirical measures, but also Peñalosa- Turnovsky’s endogenous growth model with elastic labor supply where the growth rate and the distribution of income are jointly determined. Keywords: economic growth, economic inequality, Kuznets curve, Gini coefficient, income distribution, welfare economics JEL Classification: D63 , E01, E10, F63
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Challenges of European real growth after the financial crisis Author: Elena Adriana ANDREI, PhD Student.59 The Bucharest University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania Abstract The global financial crisis has underlined the interdependences between all EU economies in recent years, raising questions about the efficiency of the pre-crisis growth model. In a recent report (2012), World Economic Forum points out that the European growth model needs to be adjusted and not abandoned. Therefore, the efforts should not be further diverted from achieving the fundamental longer term goal of creating a highly competitive, inclusive and sustainable society to better enable Europe’s economies to absorb shocks and ensure stable economic performance going into the future. Furthermore, Mankiw (2002), in a study on economic growth, points out that the causality between investments and savings rates and the level of GDP per capita is strong, reveling why some countries are rich and others poor. By using econometric methods as Granger causality or panel data regression, this paper analyzes the role of saving and investment, population growth, and technological progress in obtaining a sustainable log-run growth, taking into consideration the influences of factors like: the effects of the financial crisis on the sustainability of the European growth model, the differences between EU countries, the political stability etc. Keywords: real economic growth, causality, panel data regression, EU economies JEL Classification: C23, E60
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A search model on labor market. Study case on Romania Author: Professor Mihai Daniel ROMAN60 The Bucharest University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania Abstract On labor market the initial studies on search models analyzes revenues functions, dynamic optimization theory and classical selection model of Heckman. In our paper we analyze Romanian labor market and we apply Pissarides search model in order to determine the equilibrium wage and the natural rate of unemployment. Keywords: search model, labor market, unemployment JEL Classification: J23, C33
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Un model de căutare pe piaţa muncii. Studiu de caz pentru România Autor: Profesor dr. Mihai Daniel ROMAN Rezumat Primele studii care analizau piaţa muncii din perspectiva modelelor de căutare se bazau pe funcţii de venit, pe teoria optimizării dinamice şi pe modelul clasic al lui Heckman. In acet articol vom căuta să analizăm piaţa muncii din românia şi pe baza modelului de căutar elaborat de Pissarides să determinăm salariul de echilibru şi rata naturală a şomajului. Cuvinte cheie: modele de căutare, piaţa muncii, şomaj Clasificare JEL: J23, C33
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Description of the national energetic system from the perspective of a complex adaptive system Authors: Lecturer Mioara BANCESCU PhD.61, Professor Emil SCARLAT PhD.62 The Bucharest University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania Abstract In the last years, the structure of the national production and consumption sides of the national energy sector reflects the successive reorganization processes that took place, but also the process of market liberalization, the setup of two additional nuclear plants, the economic crises effects or the drought periods. Besides the eight regional electricity distributors and the market operator, there are other participants in the national energetic system: approximately one hundred licensed producers, one hundred and fifty licensed providers of electricity and a transport system operator. The main sub-components of the regulated and of the concurrent electricity market are the following: the market for regulated bilateral contracts, for negotiated bilateral contracts, centralized market for electricity contracts, the day-ahead market, the intra-day market and the ‘en-detail’ market. This paper proposes a description of all those elements of the national energetic system from the perspective of a complex adaptive system. The following properties of a complex adaptive system are analyzed within the paper: connectivity and inter-dependency, co-evolution, dissipative structures, functioning far from equilibrium, exploring the possibilities space, feedback process, trajectory dependency, self-organization, being an emergent system, etc. Keywords: complex adaptive system, national energetic system, feedback proces, co-evolution. JEL classification: C60, Q21,Q41,Q43
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Descrierea sistemului energeic naţional din perspectiva unui sistem adaptiv complex Autori : Lect. Dr. Mioara BANCESCU, Prof. Dr. Emil SCARLAT Rezumat Structura din ultimii ani a sectorului naţional de producere şi de consum al energiei electrice reflectă reorganizările succesive care au avut loc, de asemenea demararea şi finalizarea procesului de liberalizare a pieţei de energie electrică, punerea graduală în funcţiune a două unităţi de tip nuclear-electric, de asemenea efectele crizei economice sau a perioadelor de secetă. Pe lângă cei opt operatori regionali de distribuţie şi operatorul de piaţă, în sistemul energetic naţional mai există ca participanţi : aproximativ o sută de deţinători ai licenţei de producţie a energiei electrice, o sută cincizeci de titulari de licenţă de furnizare a energiei electrice şi un operator de transport şi sistem. Principalele subcomponente ale pieţei reglementate şi ale pieţei concurenţiale de energie electrică sunt: cea a contractelor bilaterale reglementate, a contractelor bilaterale negociate, pieţele centralizate, piaţa pentru ziua următoare, piaţa de echilibrare şi piaţa cu amănuntul. Lucrarea propune o descriere a tuturor acestor elemente ale sistemului energetic naţional din perspectiva unui sistem adaptiv complex. Proprietăţile unui sistem adaptiv complex care sunt analizate în cadrul lucrării sunt: conectivitatea şi interdependenţa, coevoluţia, structuri disipative, funcţionarea-departe-de-echilibru, explorarea spaţiului posibilităţilor, procesul feedback, dependenţa de traiectorie, auto-organizarea, emergenţa, etc. Cuvinte cheie: sistem adaptiv complex, sistem energetic naţional, proces feedback, coevoluţie Clasificare JEL: C60, Q21,Q41,Q43
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Industrial depression areas’ migration processes from the view point of structural changes Author: Ágnes HEGYI-KÉRI 63 University of Miskolc, World and Regional Department, Miskolc, Hungary Abstract One of the most visual side effects of economic growth and development is the change in the structure of economic activities (Szalavetz, 2004). To support economic development it is worth to mention the accumulative and structural view points. According to the accumulative agenda, economic development is the source of economic growth, and structural modernization is the accumulation of physical and human capital which influences production, and the development of factual inputs. On the other hand the structuralist view concentrates on the changes in production, sector and branch composition, and says that these are the leading sources of economic growth, and dynamic changes in development (Szalavetz, 2007, Nelson-Pack, 1999, Kuznets, 1957). In this article, based on these two views I am trying to find an answer to the following question: in Europe’s Middle Eastern countries what kind of effects will the structural changes inducted by transformational recession have on the migration processes, and on economic development. According to my theory we can introduce a new term called ”delayed emigrational effect” which can best describe the demographical changes of the migration potential. My research thesis is, that on a regional basis, the long structural changes, in accordance with the industrial crises, through the freezing of the economic structures, hinders social revitalization, it leads to job market depression, and enforces as a push factor second generational, delayed migration. In my article I conceptualize the terms related to this, and with the help of different indicators I will try to prove or contradict the truth of my statement.
Keywords: structural changes, depressed areas, migration JEL Classification: O15, P25
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„Catapult” The impact of the deepening labour market of the emigration Authors: Zsuzsanna DABASI HALÁSZ64, Phd., Kinga FEKSZI University of Miskolc, Miskolc, Hungary Abstract Regional differences have become an obstacle of the Hungarian competiveness. In the recent decades migration process has deepened the duality of the labour market. One possible reason for this is the labour market depression of the brownfields. The Labour- and Society-economy Institute Department (before: Human Resource Department) made a primer research in the spring of 2012, called “The society opinion of the brownfields in the labour market”. Our target was to prove that the labour market is more depressed in the ex-factory fields than in the other parts of the city. This phenomenon prevents self-healing processes. Therefore the revitalization of the area is essential to prevent the segments of sociality from the already deepening social gap and from the highly qualified segment’s emigration. The major problems in these districts are long-term unemployment, lack of job opportunities (jobs), low employment, high-poverty, the Romas’ situation, housing problems, public safety, drug and alcohol problems; and the lack of institutional network to treat these problems. The reason of this that after the politician system change the industry declined, the number of the industrial employers decreased. In line with the growth of the service sector, a new progress has begun called tercierisation. Unfortunately, the unemployment has not softened, because of the lack of the qualified workers. In the brownfields of Miskolc a new tendency strengthened which means that the competent labour emigrated. For this places low-skilled and bad social conditioned segments moved from the nearly agriculture and industrial areas. For this reason, two major progresses can be observed. Firstly, the inequalities significantly growth; moreover, the average living standard declined. The major question groups of the research:
• expectations regarding the labor market, • assessment of home environment and related expectations, • the history and structure of labor relations, • employment-related information, • potential employees, interpersonal social capital, • income use plans, • value system structures.
As a result of the research, we reveal process and characteristics to help the decision makers to set a complex revitalization strategy which major target to hold the population in these areas.
Keywords: labour market, revitalization, migration, segregation JEL Classification: J65
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Economic recovery premises in Romania Authors: Professor Catalin HUIDUMAC, PhD.65, Radu Marcel JOIA, PhD. The Bucharest University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania Universiy Nicolae Titulescu, Bucharest Abstract
The actual period is revealed through a drama that mankind hasn’t known from the Great Depression to the present. Current imbalances – fiscal, budgetary and monetary – generate, according to the amplification of the interdependencies, extensive consequences on a global scale. The economic theory and practice have evolved, and at this process have greatly contributed each previous crisis. Overcoming the Great Recession and building a sustainable economy requires serious innovations in term of macroeconomic policies and concerted actions of the states.
One of the common features of the pre-crisis period was the overall change of the human and institutional behavior, in which people and organizations have poorly managed the relationship between the present and the future size of the own resources and the level of costs and consumption. Welfare has apparently increased and no one dared to disturb the harmony or to disturb the general joy. As a result, governmental interferences which could temper the "irrational exuberance" and modify "euphoric anticipations" were pale and, therefore, can be described as irresponsible. The same thing happened in most of the countries of Central and Eastern European region, even if they were able to rely on a mitigating circumstance, namely the illusion of catching-up process. The promoted growth model has become unsustainable, warning that was launched few years before the crisis by a small number of economic analysts.
Overcoming the crisis involves encouraging economic growth. A problem whose solution supports economic recovery in Romania is related to the labor market rigidities, with its inevitable consequences, such as lower investment yields and low productivity. Another crucial issue in overcoming the crisis is the state indebtedness. This has older roots, PFM being a sector where almost all states have seen slippage. The social protection systems, whose inefficiency is widely recognized, is only one of the high public debt explanations. Poorly managed, the issue of restoring financial balance tends to turn into a long-term problem.
One of the fundamental conditions of investment stimulation, as an economic growth premise, is related to an effective system of regulation and supervision of financial markets, other globally pressing issue. Regulatory dominant philosophy in Europe is not likely liberal as it happens to be in U.S.A. Romania, as an EU member country, will acquire European standards, which are accompanied by certain rigidity concerning the market and the competition, which affects efficiency.
The paper aims to analyze the prerequisites for economic recovery in Romania, ranking them in a European context.
Keywords: Consumption, Saving, Fiscal Policy, Economic Growth of Open Economies, Government Policy and Regulation JEL Classification: E21, E62, F43, G18
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Premise ale relansarii economice in Romania Autori: Prof.. Dr. Catalin HUIDUMAC, Dr. Radu Marcel JOIA Rezumat
Perioada actuala se releva printr-un dramatism pe care omenirea nu l-a mai cunoscut din timpul Marii Depresiuni. Dezechilibrele actuale, de natura fiscal-bugetara si monetara, genereaza, in conditiile amplificarii interdependentelor, consecinte ample la scara globala. Teoria si practica economica au evoluat, iar la acest proces au contribuit din plin fiecare din crizele anterioare. Depasirea Marii Recesiuni si construirea unei economii sustenabile impun inovatii serioase la nivelul politicilor macroeconomice si actiuni concertate ale statelor.
Una dintre trasaturile comune ale perioadei premergatoare crizei a constituit-o schimbarea generala de comportament uman si institutional, in care oameni si organizatii au gestionat deficitar relatia dintre dimensiunea prezenta si cea viitoare a resurselor proprii si nivelul cheltuielilor si consumului. Bunastarea crestea in mod aparent si nimeni nu indraznea sa strice armonia sau sa tulbure bucuria generala. Ca urmare, interventia autoritatilor care ar fi putut tempera „exuberanta irationala” si modifica „anticipatiile euforice” a fost palida si, din acest motiv, poate fi calificata drept iresponsabila. Acelasi lucru s-a petrecut in mai toate tarile din zona Europei Centrale si de Est, chiar daca ele puteau sa se prevaleze de o circumstanta atenuanta si anume iluzia procesului de catching-up. Modelul de crestere economica promovat a devenit nesustenabil, avertisment lansat cu cativa ani inainte de criza de un numar redus de analisti economici.
Depasirea crizei presupune incurajarea cresterii economice. O problema a carei rezolvare sprijina relansarea economica in Romania tine de rigiditatile pietei muncii, cu consecintele sale inevitabile, precum randamentele investitionale reduse si productivitatea scazuta. O alta problema cruciala in depasirea crizei este supraindatorarea statului. Aceasta are radacini mai vechi, gestiunea finantelor publice fiind un sector in care mai toate statele au inregistrat derapaje. Sistemele de protectie sociala, a caror ineficienta este larg recunoscuta, constituie doar una dintre explicatiile datoriei publice ridicate. Gestionata defectuos, problema restabilirii echilibrului financiar tinde sa se transforme intr-o problema pe termen lung.
Una dintre conditiile fundamentale a stimularii investitiilor, ca premisa a cresterii economice, tine de un sistem eficient de reglementare si supraveghere a pietelor financiare, problema de altfel stringenta la nivel global. Filozofia dominanta in Europa privind reglementarea nu este de natura liberala asa cum se intampla in cazul SUA. Romania, ca tara membra a UE, isi va insusi norme europene, care sunt insotite de anumite rigiditati privind piata si concurenta, ceea ce ii afecteaza eficienta.
Lucrarea isi propune sa analizeze aceste premise ale relansarii economice in Romania, situandu-le intr-un context european. Cuvinte cheie: Consum, Economii, Politica fiscala, Crestere economica, Politica guvernamentala si reglementare Classificare JEL: E21, E62, F43, G18
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The green world economy – a dream or reality? Author: Professor Klara Szita Toth, PhD66 University of Miskolc, Faculty of Economics, Miskolc, Hungary Abstract The green world economy but especially the greening of industry is not new initiative. Before 20 years it appeared in Rio World summit, and since this time more and more approach have been seen parallel with increasing environmental load, especially with global warming. Recently in time of hyper- and economic globalization when the acceleration of trade from the world’s factories result large accompanying risk, and environmental degradation, new strategically orientation rather needs, so proposal have been birth to start a global environmental governance Biermann et al, 2012. The requirements increased to develop the green or rather blue economy (Paoli, 2010). It is true, that the representatives of growth theories state, the reason of development – although they think often only for the economic growth – depend on inside and outside issues, in which the natural environment has not get role. However the experts of sustainability and leader representatives of ecological economist point out that the three pillars of development, based on the key issues of social well-being can only achieve compliance with environmental constraints and restraint as possible. This paper tries to summary the main steps, results and butlinecks of this way towards the green world economy.
Keywords: green world, growth, natural environment JEL Classification: O11, Q56
66 [email protected] This paper is supported by OTKA K 76870 research Globalisation and Globalization and institutional changes, Hungary reintegration strategies
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Social inequality and income distribution in Romania Author: Professor Mihai Daniel ROMAN67 PhD., Professor Ioan Eugen Tiganescu The Bucharest University of Economics, Bucharest, Romania Abstract Social inequality represents a situation that exists in every part of the world. The main factors that influence social inequality are both at the microeconomic level and macroeconomic level. Macroeconomic variables that influence inequality are basic unemployment and inflation (see Blinder and Esaki or Blank and Blinder studies on US economy). In our paper we analyze the level of social inequality in Romania based on revenues analysis. Keywords: social inequality, unemployment, inflation, deciles, model JEL Classification: D63, C32
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Inegalitatea socială şi distribuţia venitului în România Autori: Prof. dr. Mihai Daniel ROMAN, Prof. dr. Ioan Eugen ŢIGĂNESCU Rezumat Fenomenul inegalităţii sociale există în orice ţară din lume. Factorii ce influenţează inegalitatea se regăsesc atât la nivel microeconomic cât şi le nivel macroeconomic. În ceea ce priveşte variabilele macroeconomice ce influenţează inegalitatea socială , acestea sunt în esenţă inflaţia şi şomajul (studiile elaborate de see Blinder şi Esaki sau Blank and Blinder sunt semnificative înlitaratura de specilitate). In acest articol vom căuta să analizăm nivelul la care se află inegalitatea socială în societatea românească prin intermediul analizei veniturilor. Cuvinte cheie: inegalitate socială, şomaj, inflaţie, model Clasificare JEL: D63, C32
